Climate change and human activities are primary drivers of runoff variations,significantly impacting the hydrological balance of river basins.In recent decades,the Yellow River Basin,China has experienced a marked dec...Climate change and human activities are primary drivers of runoff variations,significantly impacting the hydrological balance of river basins.In recent decades,the Yellow River Basin,China has experienced a marked decline in runoff,posing challenges to the sustainable development of regional water resources and ecosystem stability.To enhance the understanding of runoff dynamics in the basin,we selected the Dahei River Basin,a representative tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin as the study area.A comprehensive analysis of runoff trends and contributing factors was conducted using the data on hydrology,meteorology,and water resource development and utilization.Abrupt change years of runoff series in the Dahei River Basin was identified by the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests:1999 at Dianshang,Qixiaying,and Meidai hydrological stations and 1995 at Sanliang hydrological station.Through hydrological simulations based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model,we quantified the factors driving runoff evolution in the Dahei River Basin,with climate change contributing 9.92%–22.91%and human activities contributing 77.09%–90.08%.The Budyko hypothesis method provided similar results,with climate change contributing 13.06%–20.89%and human activities contributing 79.11%–86.94%.Both methods indicated that human activities,particularly water consumption,were dominant factors in the runoff variations of the Dahei River Basin.The integration of hydrological modeling with attribution analysis offers valuable insights into runoff evolution,facilitating adaptive strategies to mitigate water scarcity in arid and semi-arid areas.展开更多
Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multila...Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network(ANN). However, in runoff areas with relatively low rainfall or a dry climate, more studies are needed. In these areas—of which oasis-plain areas are a particularly good example—the existence and development of runoff depends largely on that which is generated from alpine regions. Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of runoff simulation under climate change is the key to improving the utilization and management of water resources in arid areas. Therefore, in this context, three kinds of BP feed-forward, three-layer ANNs with similar structure were chosen as models in this paper.Taking the oasis–plain region traverse by the Qira River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as the research area, the monthly accumulated runoff of the Qira River in the next month was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the training precision of a compact wavelet neural network is low; but from the forecasting results, it could be concluded that the training algorithm can better reflect the whole law of samples. The traditional artificial neural network(TANN) model and radial basis-function neural network(RBFNN) model showed higher accuracy in the training and prediction stage. However, the TANN model, more sensitive to the selection of input variables, requires a large number of numerical simulations to determine the appropriate input variables and the number of hidden-layer neurons. Hence, The RBFNN model is more suitable for the study of such problems. And it can be extended to other similar research arid-oasis areas on the southern edge of the Kunlun Mountains and provides a reference for sustainable water-resource management of arid-oasis areas.展开更多
[Objective]The aim was to study the simulation test of hydrodynamics process of erosion.[Method]Through the runoff scouring experiment,the property of soil erosion in Damaoqi grassland in Inner Mongolia was studied.Th...[Objective]The aim was to study the simulation test of hydrodynamics process of erosion.[Method]Through the runoff scouring experiment,the property of soil erosion in Damaoqi grassland in Inner Mongolia was studied.The process and mechanism of soil erosion were studied.[Result]The results of runoff scouring experiment on inner Damaoqi steppe showed that the mean flow velocity of change slope increased with the discharge of flow and slope gradient.The mean silt content rate,the mean sediment transport rate and the mean sheer stress all increased when the discharge of flow increased,which changed in parabolic form with the increase of slope gradient and the critical gradient is 25°.The relationship between the mean sediment transport rate and the mean sheer stress was linear.[Conclusion]The study provided theoretic basis for the report of soil erosion in grassland in China.展开更多
Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model, developed by U. S. Soil Conservation Service in 1972, has been widely applied in the estimation of runoff from an small watershed. In this paper, based on the remote sensing geo-...Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model, developed by U. S. Soil Conservation Service in 1972, has been widely applied in the estimation of runoff from an small watershed. In this paper, based on the remote sensing geo-information data of land use and soil classification all obtained from Landsat images in 1996 and 1997 and con-ventional data of hydrology and meteorology, the SCS model was investigated for simulating the surface runoff for single rainstorm in Wangdonggou watershed, a typical small watershed in the Loess Plateau, located in Changwu County of Shaanxi Province of China. Wangdonggou watershed was compartmentalized into 28 sub-units according to natural draining division,and the table of curve number (CN) values fitting for Wangdonggou watershed was also presented. During the flood period from 1996 to 1997, the hydrograph of calculated runoff process using the SCS model and the hydrograph of observed runoff process coincided very well in height as well as shape, and the model was of high precision above 75%. It is indicated that the SCS model is legitimate and can be successfully used to simulate the runoff generation and the runoff process of typical small watershed based on the remote sensing geo-information in the Loess Plateau.展开更多
The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation, has become more attractive and more popular for land surfa...The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation, has become more attractive and more popular for land surface process study since digital elevation models (DEMs) have become widely available. In this paper, the effect of the topography index on soil water storage distribution, which is the key to TOPMODEL, is explained. Then a simple water cycle model for estimating other components of the surface water cycle is developed, which is implemented into the TOPMODEL to integrate the water cycle of the catchment. Using the output of a DEM from 100 m×100 m resolution data and a single flow direction algorithm, the index distribution function is calculated for a catchment (around 2500 km2 )in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under different channel initiation thresholds. Finally, the daily and monthly rainfall-runoff response from 1960 to 1987 for the catchment is simulated with the TOPMODEL coupled with the simple water cycle model.展开更多
Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runo...Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.展开更多
This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. T...This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. Two hydrological models, the snowmelt-runoff model （SRM） and the Danish NedbФr-AfstrФmnings rainfall-runoff model （NAM）, were used to simulate daily discharge processes in the Aksu River Basin. This study used the snow-covered area from MODIS remote sensing data as the SRM input. With the help of ArcGIS software, this study successfully derived the digital drainage network and elevation zones of the basin from digital elevation data. The simulation results showed that the SRM based on MODIS data was more accurate than NAM. This demonstrates that the application of remote sensing data to hydrological snowmelt models is a feasible and effective approach to runoff simulation and prediction in arid unguaged basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor.展开更多
[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT mo...[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT model was used to simulate runoff in basin. Monthly water flow in Shijiao station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter, while monthly water flow from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify. Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [Result] Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high, and it could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin. Under the situation of in- variable rainfall, temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased, and runoff depth decreased. When temperature unchanged, rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat. [ Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for water re- source management in Beijiang River basin.展开更多
Climate and land use changes have a significant impact on the runoff generation process in urban environments, and these effects could get worse in the future. The combined contributions of these changes have increase...Climate and land use changes have a significant impact on the runoff generation process in urban environments, and these effects could get worse in the future. The combined contributions of these changes have increased the risk of flooding.Therefore, there is a need for integrated modeling to better understand the runoff variability, especially in small urban catchments. To quantify and separate the effects of land-use changes and climate change on the hydrological response of urban catchments with a distributed hydrological model(Storm Water Management Model, SWMM), this study introduces a new integrated approach based on the Machine Learning based land use change modeler and climate change scenarios under CMIP6.Based on supervised classification and land use change model analysis, accumulated impervious area increase from 22%(in2023) to 33%(in 2060) was observed in the study area. Furthermore, integrating this projected increase in imperviousness with future climate change into SWMM by considering three different scenarios i.e., S1(Climate Change), S2(Combined Land Use and Climate Change), and S3(Land use Change) resulted that climate change could cause an increase in runoff from 13.2% to18.3% in peak runoff and the contribution of land use could range from 9.1% to 18.6%. Similarly, in response to the coupled effects of climate and land-use change, the runoff would likely change from 24.53% to 39.66%. Conclusively, the study showed that despite climate change, intensive urban development by the substitution of impervious surfaces could also have a severe impact on the microclimate and hydrology of small catchments. Lastly, this study could provide a way forward for the future planning and management of water resources in small catchments which could be extended to larger catchments.展开更多
The extraordinary rainfall occurred in the small river basin （called Asano River） of Kanazawa city, Ishikawa prefecture middle part of Japan, July 2008. The center of the city was affected by severe damages by the b...The extraordinary rainfall occurred in the small river basin （called Asano River） of Kanazawa city, Ishikawa prefecture middle part of Japan, July 2008. The center of the city was affected by severe damages by the big flood due to the extraordinary rainfall. This study aims to make clear the probability of the extraordinary rainfall, the mechanism of the flood, the flood fighting activities etc. and to prepare to the future big flood. For this purposes, the analysis of probability of rainfall events is carried out by use of three methods. They are Gumbel method, Hazen plot and Momentum method. The return period is estimated 250 years. Next runoff analysis by use of the Tank model method was carried out. This model consists of several series of rainfall storage tanks. The upper tank corresponds to surface runoff and the lower tank corresponds to inter runoff and ground water runoff. The result shows that the observed and simulated discharge is similar. So the future flood by the extraordinary rainfall events is able to predict the amounts of the flood. Finally, the problem of the flood fighting activity is cleared for the safety of the people in the river basin.展开更多
Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process,it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management,socio-economic activities,and sustainable develo...Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process,it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management,socio-economic activities,and sustainable development in the future.In this paper,the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area,China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set(CMADS)and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters.On this basis,runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted.Our research shows that:(1)The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17%and 10.83%,respectively.Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River.(2)In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model,the average temperature increased by0.61,1.09 and 1.74 C,respectively,in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050.Average precipitation increased by 14.36,66.88,and 142.73 mm,respectively,and runoff increased by 15,24,and 35 million m3,respectively.The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3204401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23A2001,U2243234)+2 种基金the Major Science and Technology Projects of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(KCX2024013-1,2022EEDSKJXM005)the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Science and Technology Leading Talent Team(2022LJRC0007)the Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Basic Research Business Expenses Project(BR221012,BR221204).
文摘Climate change and human activities are primary drivers of runoff variations,significantly impacting the hydrological balance of river basins.In recent decades,the Yellow River Basin,China has experienced a marked decline in runoff,posing challenges to the sustainable development of regional water resources and ecosystem stability.To enhance the understanding of runoff dynamics in the basin,we selected the Dahei River Basin,a representative tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin as the study area.A comprehensive analysis of runoff trends and contributing factors was conducted using the data on hydrology,meteorology,and water resource development and utilization.Abrupt change years of runoff series in the Dahei River Basin was identified by the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests:1999 at Dianshang,Qixiaying,and Meidai hydrological stations and 1995 at Sanliang hydrological station.Through hydrological simulations based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model,we quantified the factors driving runoff evolution in the Dahei River Basin,with climate change contributing 9.92%–22.91%and human activities contributing 77.09%–90.08%.The Budyko hypothesis method provided similar results,with climate change contributing 13.06%–20.89%and human activities contributing 79.11%–86.94%.Both methods indicated that human activities,particularly water consumption,were dominant factors in the runoff variations of the Dahei River Basin.The integration of hydrological modeling with attribution analysis offers valuable insights into runoff evolution,facilitating adaptive strategies to mitigate water scarcity in arid and semi-arid areas.
基金financially supported by the regional collaborative innovation project for Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Shanghai cooperation organization science and technology partnership project) (2017E01029)the "Western Light" program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2017XBQNXZ-B-016)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41601595, U1603343, 41471031)the State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (G201802-08)
文摘Most previous research on areas with abundant rainfall shows that simulations using rainfall-runoff modes have a very high prediction accuracy and applicability when using a back-propagation(BP), feed-forward, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network(ANN). However, in runoff areas with relatively low rainfall or a dry climate, more studies are needed. In these areas—of which oasis-plain areas are a particularly good example—the existence and development of runoff depends largely on that which is generated from alpine regions. Quantitative analysis of the uncertainty of runoff simulation under climate change is the key to improving the utilization and management of water resources in arid areas. Therefore, in this context, three kinds of BP feed-forward, three-layer ANNs with similar structure were chosen as models in this paper.Taking the oasis–plain region traverse by the Qira River Basin in Xinjiang, China, as the research area, the monthly accumulated runoff of the Qira River in the next month was simulated and predicted. The results showed that the training precision of a compact wavelet neural network is low; but from the forecasting results, it could be concluded that the training algorithm can better reflect the whole law of samples. The traditional artificial neural network(TANN) model and radial basis-function neural network(RBFNN) model showed higher accuracy in the training and prediction stage. However, the TANN model, more sensitive to the selection of input variables, requires a large number of numerical simulations to determine the appropriate input variables and the number of hidden-layer neurons. Hence, The RBFNN model is more suitable for the study of such problems. And it can be extended to other similar research arid-oasis areas on the southern edge of the Kunlun Mountains and provides a reference for sustainable water-resource management of arid-oasis areas.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Program of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (MKS2010001)
文摘[Objective]The aim was to study the simulation test of hydrodynamics process of erosion.[Method]Through the runoff scouring experiment,the property of soil erosion in Damaoqi grassland in Inner Mongolia was studied.The process and mechanism of soil erosion were studied.[Result]The results of runoff scouring experiment on inner Damaoqi steppe showed that the mean flow velocity of change slope increased with the discharge of flow and slope gradient.The mean silt content rate,the mean sediment transport rate and the mean sheer stress all increased when the discharge of flow increased,which changed in parabolic form with the increase of slope gradient and the critical gradient is 25°.The relationship between the mean sediment transport rate and the mean sheer stress was linear.[Conclusion]The study provided theoretic basis for the report of soil erosion in grassland in China.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No 40101005)
文摘Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model, developed by U. S. Soil Conservation Service in 1972, has been widely applied in the estimation of runoff from an small watershed. In this paper, based on the remote sensing geo-information data of land use and soil classification all obtained from Landsat images in 1996 and 1997 and con-ventional data of hydrology and meteorology, the SCS model was investigated for simulating the surface runoff for single rainstorm in Wangdonggou watershed, a typical small watershed in the Loess Plateau, located in Changwu County of Shaanxi Province of China. Wangdonggou watershed was compartmentalized into 28 sub-units according to natural draining division,and the table of curve number (CN) values fitting for Wangdonggou watershed was also presented. During the flood period from 1996 to 1997, the hydrograph of calculated runoff process using the SCS model and the hydrograph of observed runoff process coincided very well in height as well as shape, and the model was of high precision above 75%. It is indicated that the SCS model is legitimate and can be successfully used to simulate the runoff generation and the runoff process of typical small watershed based on the remote sensing geo-information in the Loess Plateau.
基金supported by the following projects of China the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.40233034 and 40075019the following projects of China the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences G1998040900-Part 1the following projects of China KZCX2-SW-210.
文摘The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL), as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation, has become more attractive and more popular for land surface process study since digital elevation models (DEMs) have become widely available. In this paper, the effect of the topography index on soil water storage distribution, which is the key to TOPMODEL, is explained. Then a simple water cycle model for estimating other components of the surface water cycle is developed, which is implemented into the TOPMODEL to integrate the water cycle of the catchment. Using the output of a DEM from 100 m×100 m resolution data and a single flow direction algorithm, the index distribution function is calculated for a catchment (around 2500 km2 )in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under different channel initiation thresholds. Finally, the daily and monthly rainfall-runoff response from 1960 to 1987 for the catchment is simulated with the TOPMODEL coupled with the simple water cycle model.
基金This project is supported by the Major Science and Technology Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China(ZDZX2018054)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067013).
文摘Changes in the weather will cause variations in the hydrological system.Arid areas,with fragile hydrological systems,are very sensitive to changes in the weather,so the coupling analysis of short-term weather and runoff in arid areas is of great significance.The Daihai Lake is a closed inland lake in an arid area of China.In this paper,Weather Research and Forecasting model mode-Hydrological module(WRF-HYDRO)is used to simulate the coupling of weather and hydrology in the Daihai Lake Basin.Regional optimization of WRF-HYDRO is carried out to determine the optimal parameters.The optimal WRF-HYDRO model is applied to couple the short-term weather and runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin to reproduce several rainstorm and flood events.It is found that runoff infiltration parameter(REFKDT)in WRF-HYDRO is the parameter that has the most severe effect on runoff in the Daihai Lake Basin.WRF-HYDRO can capture the rainstorm moment of the rainstorm events in the Daihai Lake Basin,especially the first rainstorm moment,and its simulation accuracy is good.WRF-HYDRO has a strong ability to capture flood peak,but there is a discrepancy between WRF-HYDRO flood peak and Soil Conservation Service Curve Number(SCS-CN)calculation result at the flood peak moment.The northern part of Zuoyun County should guard against the occurrence of flood disaster in wet season.The coupling of weatherand hydrology can not only make up for the lack of runoff data in arid basins,but also provide a basis for water resources management and disaster prevention and mitigation in the basins.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2006CB400502)the World Bank Cooperative Project(Grant No.THSD-07)the 111 Program of the Ministry of Education and the State Administration of Foreign Expert Affairs,China(Grant No.B08048)
文摘This study simulated and predicted the runoff of the Aksu River Basin, a typical river basin supplied by snowmelt in an arid mountain region, with a limited data set and few hydrological and meteorological stations. Two hydrological models, the snowmelt-runoff model （SRM） and the Danish NedbФr-AfstrФmnings rainfall-runoff model （NAM）, were used to simulate daily discharge processes in the Aksu River Basin. This study used the snow-covered area from MODIS remote sensing data as the SRM input. With the help of ArcGIS software, this study successfully derived the digital drainage network and elevation zones of the basin from digital elevation data. The simulation results showed that the SRM based on MODIS data was more accurate than NAM. This demonstrates that the application of remote sensing data to hydrological snowmelt models is a feasible and effective approach to runoff simulation and prediction in arid unguaged basins where snowmelt is a major runoff factor.
基金Supported by Open Research Fund Program of State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,China(2010B065)National Natural Science Foundation,China(10972080)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,SCUT,China (2009ZM0186)
文摘[ Objective] The research aimed to establish SWAT distributed hydrologic model and analyze influence of the climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [ Method] Beijiang River basin as research object, SWAT model was used to simulate runoff in basin. Monthly water flow in Shijiao station from 1961 to 1980 was used to determine model parameter, while monthly water flow from 1981 to 1990 was used to verify. Setting 15 kinds of climate change scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate influence of the future climatic change on runoff in Beijiang River basin. [Result] Simulated accuracy of the SWAT model was high, and it could be used to simulate runoff in Beijiang River basin. Under the situation of in- variable rainfall, temperature rise made that evaporation capacity increased, and runoff depth decreased. When temperature unchanged, rainfall increase made that evaporation capacity and runoff depth increased somewhat. [ Conclusion] The research could provide reference basis for water re- source management in Beijiang River basin.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.B220201010)。
文摘Climate and land use changes have a significant impact on the runoff generation process in urban environments, and these effects could get worse in the future. The combined contributions of these changes have increased the risk of flooding.Therefore, there is a need for integrated modeling to better understand the runoff variability, especially in small urban catchments. To quantify and separate the effects of land-use changes and climate change on the hydrological response of urban catchments with a distributed hydrological model(Storm Water Management Model, SWMM), this study introduces a new integrated approach based on the Machine Learning based land use change modeler and climate change scenarios under CMIP6.Based on supervised classification and land use change model analysis, accumulated impervious area increase from 22%(in2023) to 33%(in 2060) was observed in the study area. Furthermore, integrating this projected increase in imperviousness with future climate change into SWMM by considering three different scenarios i.e., S1(Climate Change), S2(Combined Land Use and Climate Change), and S3(Land use Change) resulted that climate change could cause an increase in runoff from 13.2% to18.3% in peak runoff and the contribution of land use could range from 9.1% to 18.6%. Similarly, in response to the coupled effects of climate and land-use change, the runoff would likely change from 24.53% to 39.66%. Conclusively, the study showed that despite climate change, intensive urban development by the substitution of impervious surfaces could also have a severe impact on the microclimate and hydrology of small catchments. Lastly, this study could provide a way forward for the future planning and management of water resources in small catchments which could be extended to larger catchments.
文摘The extraordinary rainfall occurred in the small river basin （called Asano River） of Kanazawa city, Ishikawa prefecture middle part of Japan, July 2008. The center of the city was affected by severe damages by the big flood due to the extraordinary rainfall. This study aims to make clear the probability of the extraordinary rainfall, the mechanism of the flood, the flood fighting activities etc. and to prepare to the future big flood. For this purposes, the analysis of probability of rainfall events is carried out by use of three methods. They are Gumbel method, Hazen plot and Momentum method. The return period is estimated 250 years. Next runoff analysis by use of the Tank model method was carried out. This model consists of several series of rainfall storage tanks. The upper tank corresponds to surface runoff and the lower tank corresponds to inter runoff and ground water runoff. The result shows that the observed and simulated discharge is similar. So the future flood by the extraordinary rainfall events is able to predict the amounts of the flood. Finally, the problem of the flood fighting activity is cleared for the safety of the people in the river basin.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41867030,41971036)the key Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(23JRRA698)+2 种基金the key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(22YF7NA122)the Oasis Scientific Research achievements Breakthrough Action Plan Project of Northwest normal University(NWNU-LZKX-202302)the cultivation Plan Project of the Major(key)Project of Northwest normal University.
文摘Climate change is the dominant factor affecting the hydrological process,it is of great significance to simulate and predict its influence on water resources management,socio-economic activities,and sustainable development in the future.In this paper,the Xiying River Basin was taken as the study area,China Atmospheric Assimilation Driven Data Set(CMADS)and observation data from the Jiutiaoling station were used to simulate runoff of the SWAT model and calibrate and verify model parameters.On this basis,runoff change of the basin under the future climate scenario of CMIP6 was predicted.Our research shows that:(1)The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff increase of the Xiying River are 89.17%and 10.83%,respectively.Climate change is the most important factor affecting runoff change of the Xiying River.(2)In these three different emission scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in CMIP6 climate model,the average temperature increased by0.61,1.09 and 1.74 C,respectively,in the Xiying River Basin from 2017 to 2050.Average precipitation increased by 14.36,66.88,and 142.73 mm,respectively,and runoff increased by 15,24,and 35 million m3,respectively.The effect of climate change on runoff will continue to deepen in the future.
