Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with th...Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement.展开更多
Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient...Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on oper- ating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are ob- tained by using operational reliability evaluation.展开更多
The hydraulic system plays an important role in supplying power and its transition to other working parts of a coal shearer machine. In this paper, the reliability of the hydraulic system of a drum shearer was analyze...The hydraulic system plays an important role in supplying power and its transition to other working parts of a coal shearer machine. In this paper, the reliability of the hydraulic system of a drum shearer was analyzed. A case study was done in the Tabas Coal Mine in Iran for failure data collection. The results of the statistical analysis show that the time between failures （TBF） data of this system followed the 3-parameters Weibull distribution. There is about a 54% chance that the hydraulic system of the drum shearer will not fail for the first 50 h of operation. The developed model shows that the reliability of the hydraulic system reduces to a zero value after approximately 1 650 hours of operation. The failure rate of this system decreases when time increases. Therefore, corrective maintenance （run-to-t^ailure） was selected as the best maintenance strategy for it.展开更多
In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connectio...In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.展开更多
A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus...A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus, the zero-failure data form and corresponding Bayesian model are developed to solve the zero-failure problem of NCMTs, for which no previous suitable statistical model has been developed. An expert-judgment process that incorporates prior information is presented to solve the difficulty in obtaining reliable prior distributions of Weibull parameters. The equations for the posterior distribution of the parameter vector and the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) algorithm are derived to solve the difficulty of calculating high-dimensional integration and to obtain parameter estimators. The proposed method is applied to a real case; a corresponding programming code and trick are developed to implement an MCMC simulation in Win BUGS, and a mean time between failures(MTBF) of 1057.9 h is obtained. Given its ability to combine expert judgment, prior information, and data, the proposed reliability modeling and assessment method under the zero failure of NCMTs is validated.展开更多
There were various conventional modeling techniques with varied semantics for system reliability assessment, such as fault trees(FT), Markov process(MP), and Petri nets. However, it is strenuous to construct and to ma...There were various conventional modeling techniques with varied semantics for system reliability assessment, such as fault trees(FT), Markov process(MP), and Petri nets. However, it is strenuous to construct and to maintain models utilizing these formalisms throughout the life cycle of system under development. This paper proposes a unified formal modeling language to build a general reliability model. The method eliminates the gap between the actual system and reliability model and shows details of the system clearly. Furthermore,the model could be transformed into FT and MP through specific rules defined by a formal language to assess system-level reliability.展开更多
Metal magnetic memory（MMM） testing has been widely used to detect welded joints. However, load levels, environmental magnetic field, and measurement noises make the MMM data dispersive and bring difficulty to quanti...Metal magnetic memory（MMM） testing has been widely used to detect welded joints. However, load levels, environmental magnetic field, and measurement noises make the MMM data dispersive and bring difficulty to quantitative evaluation. In order to promote the development of quantitative MMM reliability assessment, a new MMM model is presented for welded joints. Steel Q235 welded specimens are tested along the longitudinal and horizontal lines by TSC-2M-8 instrument in the tensile fatigue experiments. The X-ray testing is carried out synchronously to verify the MMM results. It is found that MMM testing can detect the hidden crack earlier than X-ray testing. Moreover, the MMM gradient vector sum K_（vs） is sensitive to the damage degree, especially at early and hidden damage stages. Considering the dispersion of MMM data, the K_（vs） statistical law is investigated, which shows that K_（vs） obeys Gaussian distribution. So K_（vs） is the suitable MMM parameter to establish reliability model of welded joints. At last, the original quantitative MMM reliability model is first presented based on the improved stress strength interference theory. It is shown that the reliability degree R gradually decreases with the decreasing of the residual life ratio T, and the maximal error between prediction reliability degree R_1 and verification reliability degree R_2 is 9.15%. This presented method provides a novel tool of reliability testing and evaluating in practical engineering for welded joints.展开更多
With the rapid progress of component technology,the software development methodology of gathering a large number of components for designing complex software systems has matured.But,how to assess the application relia...With the rapid progress of component technology,the software development methodology of gathering a large number of components for designing complex software systems has matured.But,how to assess the application reliability accurately with the information of system architecture and the components reliabilities together has become a knotty problem.In this paper,the defects in formal description of software architecture and the limitations in existed model assumptions are both analyzed.Moreover,a new software reliability model called Component Interaction Mode(CIM) is proposed.With this model,the problem for existed component-based software reliability analysis models that cannot deal with the cases of component interaction with non-failure independent and non-random control transition is resolved.At last,the practice examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this model.展开更多
A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter cha...A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.展开更多
In traditional Bayesian software reliability models, it was assume that all probabilities are precise. In practical applications the parameters of the probability distributions are often under uncertainty due to stron...In traditional Bayesian software reliability models, it was assume that all probabilities are precise. In practical applications the parameters of the probability distributions are often under uncertainty due to strong dependence on subjective information of experts＇ judgments on sparse statistical data. In this paper, a quasi-Bayesian software reliability model using interval-valued probabilities to clearly quantify experts＇ prior beliefs on possible intervals of the parameters of the probability distributions is presented. The model integrates experts＇ judgments with statistical data to obtain more convincible assessments of software reliability with small samples. For some actual data sets, the presented model yields better predictions than the Jelinski-Moranda （JM） model using maximum likelihood （ML）.展开更多
A typical man-machine-environment system is composed of astronaut, vehicle and space environment in the course of manned spaceflight. In this paper, the important role played by man and the factors on his capability i...A typical man-machine-environment system is composed of astronaut, vehicle and space environment in the course of manned spaceflight. In this paper, the important role played by man and the factors on his capability in vehicle system have been described, and a stress-strength human reliability model is also put forward. In the end, it must be systematically considered to raise the astronaut's reliability.展开更多
Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill multiphase-missions.Traditional reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satel...Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill multiphase-missions.Traditional reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satellite propulsion system.An extended object-oriented Petri net(EOOPN)method was proposed to facilitate the reliability modelling of satellite propulsion system in the paper.The proposed method was specified for modelling of phased mission system,and it could be implemented by generating combination of Petri net(PN)principles and object-oriented(OO)programming.The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through the reliability modelling of a satellite propulsion system with EOOPN.The major advantage of the proposed method is that the dimension of net model can be reduced significantly,and phased mission system at system,phase,or component levels can be respectively depicted.Furthermore,the state-space explosion problem is solved by the proposed EOOPN model efficiently.展开更多
With the warranty requirements of key and important devices,the compound preventive warranty policy was introduced.For the effectiveness of compound preventive maintenance, the maintenance mode of periodic replacement...With the warranty requirements of key and important devices,the compound preventive warranty policy was introduced.For the effectiveness of compound preventive maintenance, the maintenance mode of periodic replacement with functional checks was adopted, its failure risk analysis was carried on, and the warranty reliability model was established. On the basis of above research,a numerical example was given to illustrate the engineering application and generality of the warranty reliability model.展开更多
Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped...Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped varying trend of TE increasing rate more accurately, first, two S-shaped testing-effort functions（TEFs）, i.e.,delayed S-shaped TEF（DS-TEF） and inflected S-shaped TEF（IS-TEF）, are proposed. Then these two TEFs are incorporated into various types（exponential-type, delayed S-shaped and inflected S-shaped） of non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP）SRGMs with two forms of ID respectively for obtaining a series of new NHPP SRGMs which consider S-shaped TEFs as well as ID. Finally these new SRGMs and several comparison NHPP SRGMs are applied into four real failure data-sets respectively for investigating the fitting and prediction power of these new SRGMs.The experimental results show that：（i） the proposed IS-TEF is more suitable and flexible for describing the consumption of TE than the previous TEFs;（ii） incorporating TEFs into the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM may be more effective and appropriate compared with the exponential-type and the delayed S-shaped NHPP SRGMs;（iii） the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM considering both IS-TEF and ID yields the most accurate fitting and prediction results than the other comparison NHPP SRGMs.展开更多
As the web-server based business is rapidly developed and popularized, how to evaluate and improve the reliability of web-servers has been extremely important. Although a large num- ber of software reliability growth ...As the web-server based business is rapidly developed and popularized, how to evaluate and improve the reliability of web-servers has been extremely important. Although a large num- ber of software reliability growth models （SRGMs）, including those combined with multiple change-points （CPs）, have been available, these conventional SRGMs cannot be directly applied to web soft- ware reliability analysis because of the complex web operational profile. To characterize the web operational profile precisely, it should be realized that the workload of a web server is normally non-homogeneous and often observed with the pattern of random impulsive shocks. A web software reliability model with random im- pulsive shocks and its statistical analysis method are developed. In the proposed model, the web server workload is characterized by a geometric Brownian motion process. Based on a real data set from IIS server logs of ICRMS website （www.icrms.cn）, the proposed model is demonstrated to be powerful for estimating impulsive shocks and web software reliability.展开更多
According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out...According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of a software project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a software reliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency in applications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of experimental models in SRES.展开更多
According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliabilityanalysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificialtechnology. By reasoning out the conclusion...According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliabilityanalysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificialtechnology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of asoftware project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a softwarereliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency inapplications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of models, LVLM and LVQM.展开更多
The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely consid...The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely considered when reliabil?ity allocation is conducted. In this paper, drawbacks of reliability model based on failure independence assumption are illustrated, after which, reliability model of CNC lathes considering failure correlation of subsystems is established based on Copula theory, which is an improvement of traditional reliability model of series systems. As the failure time of CNC lathes often obeys Weibull or exponential distribution, Gumbel Copula is selected to build correlation model. After that, a reliability allocation method considering failure correlation is analyzed based on the model established before. Reliability goal is set first and then failure rates are allocated to subsystems according to the allocation vector through solving the correlation model. Reliability allocation is conducted for t = 1. A real case of a CNC lathe and a numerical case are presented together to illustrate the advantages of the reliability model established consider?ing failure correlation and the corresponding allocation method. It shows that the model accords to facts and real working condition more, and failure rates allocated to all the subsystems are increased to some extent. This research proposes a reliability allocation method which takes failure correlation among subsystems of CNC lathes into consid?eration, and costs for design and manufacture could be decreased.展开更多
Existing Physics-of-Failure-based （PoF-based） system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption, which overlooks the dependency among the compo- nents. In this paper, a new type of de...Existing Physics-of-Failure-based （PoF-based） system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption, which overlooks the dependency among the compo- nents. In this paper, a new type of dependency, referred to as failure collaboration, is introduced and considered in reliability predictions. A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration. Based on the developed model, the Bisection-based Reliability Analysis Method （BRAM） is exploited to calculate the system reliability. The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator （HSA）. The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.展开更多
The conventional stress-strength interference（SSI） model is a basic model for reliability analysis of mechanical components. In this model, the component reliability is defined as the probability of the strength bei...The conventional stress-strength interference（SSI） model is a basic model for reliability analysis of mechanical components. In this model, the component reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being larger than the stress, where the component stress is generally represented by a single random variable（RV）. But for a component under multi-operating conditions, its reliability can not be calculated directly by using the SSI model. The problem arises from that the stress on a component under multi-operating conditions can not be described by a single RV properly. Current research concerning the SSI model mainly focuses on the calculation of the static or dynamic reliability of the component under single operation condition. To evaluate the component reliability under multi-operating conditions, this paper uses multiple discrete RVs based on the actual stress range of the component firstly. These discrete RVs have identical possible values and different corresponding probability value, which are used to represent the multi-operating conditions of the component. Then the component reliability under each operating condition is calculated, respectively, by employing the discrete SSI model and the universal generating function technique, and from this the discrete SSI model under multi-operating conditions is proposed. Finally the proposed model is applied to evaluate the reliability of a transmission component of the decelerator installed in an aeroengine. The reliability of this component during taking-off, cruising and landing phases of an aircraft are calculated, respectively. With this model, a basic method for reliability analysis of the component under complex load condition is provided, and the application range of the conventional SSI model is extended.展开更多
基金supported by the steady supports scientific research of Key Laboratory of Defense Science and Technology,China(No.WDZC20220105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51775020,62073009,U20B2002)the Science Challenge Project,China(No.TZ2018007)。
文摘Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement.
基金Project (No. 2004CB217901) supported by the National Basic Re-search Program (973) of China
文摘Operational reliability evaluation theory reflects real-time reliability level of power system. The component failure rate varies with operating conditions. The impact of real-time operating conditions such as ambient temperature and transformer MVA (megavolt-ampere) loading on transformer insulation life is studied in this paper. The formula of transformer failure rate based on the winding hottest-spot temperature (HST) is given. Thus the real-time reliability model of transformer based on oper- ating conditions is presented. The work is illustrated using the 1979 IEEE Reliability Test System. The changes of operating conditions are simulated by using hourly load curve and temperature curve, so the curves of real-time reliability indices are ob- tained by using operational reliability evaluation.
文摘The hydraulic system plays an important role in supplying power and its transition to other working parts of a coal shearer machine. In this paper, the reliability of the hydraulic system of a drum shearer was analyzed. A case study was done in the Tabas Coal Mine in Iran for failure data collection. The results of the statistical analysis show that the time between failures （TBF） data of this system followed the 3-parameters Weibull distribution. There is about a 54% chance that the hydraulic system of the drum shearer will not fail for the first 50 h of operation. The developed model shows that the reliability of the hydraulic system reduces to a zero value after approximately 1 650 hours of operation. The failure rate of this system decreases when time increases. Therefore, corrective maintenance （run-to-t^ailure） was selected as the best maintenance strategy for it.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Plan(Major Project of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan,Grant No.2006BAB04A13)
文摘In order to analyze the indispensability of the organization management chain of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project （SNWDP）, two basic forms （series connection state and mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection） of the organization management chain can be abstracted. The indispensability of each form has been studied and is described in this paper. Through analysis of the reliability of the two basic forms, reliability models of the organization management chain in the series connection state and the mixed state of both series connection and parallel connection have been set up.
基金Project(2014ZX04014-011)supported by State Key Science&Technology Program of ChinaProject([2016]414)supported by the 13th Five-year Program of Education Department of Jilin Province,China
文摘A new problem that classical statistical methods are incapable of solving is reliability modeling and assessment when multiple numerical control machine tools(NCMTs) reveal zero failures after a reliability test. Thus, the zero-failure data form and corresponding Bayesian model are developed to solve the zero-failure problem of NCMTs, for which no previous suitable statistical model has been developed. An expert-judgment process that incorporates prior information is presented to solve the difficulty in obtaining reliable prior distributions of Weibull parameters. The equations for the posterior distribution of the parameter vector and the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC) algorithm are derived to solve the difficulty of calculating high-dimensional integration and to obtain parameter estimators. The proposed method is applied to a real case; a corresponding programming code and trick are developed to implement an MCMC simulation in Win BUGS, and a mean time between failures(MTBF) of 1057.9 h is obtained. Given its ability to combine expert judgment, prior information, and data, the proposed reliability modeling and assessment method under the zero failure of NCMTs is validated.
文摘There were various conventional modeling techniques with varied semantics for system reliability assessment, such as fault trees(FT), Markov process(MP), and Petri nets. However, it is strenuous to construct and to maintain models utilizing these formalisms throughout the life cycle of system under development. This paper proposes a unified formal modeling language to build a general reliability model. The method eliminates the gap between the actual system and reliability model and shows details of the system clearly. Furthermore,the model could be transformed into FT and MP through specific rules defined by a formal language to assess system-level reliability.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11272084,11472076)PetroChina Innovation Foundation(Grant No.2015D-5006-0602)Postdoctoral Science Research Developmental Foundation of Chinese Heilongjiang Province(Grant No.LBH-Q13035)
文摘Metal magnetic memory（MMM） testing has been widely used to detect welded joints. However, load levels, environmental magnetic field, and measurement noises make the MMM data dispersive and bring difficulty to quantitative evaluation. In order to promote the development of quantitative MMM reliability assessment, a new MMM model is presented for welded joints. Steel Q235 welded specimens are tested along the longitudinal and horizontal lines by TSC-2M-8 instrument in the tensile fatigue experiments. The X-ray testing is carried out synchronously to verify the MMM results. It is found that MMM testing can detect the hidden crack earlier than X-ray testing. Moreover, the MMM gradient vector sum K_（vs） is sensitive to the damage degree, especially at early and hidden damage stages. Considering the dispersion of MMM data, the K_（vs） statistical law is investigated, which shows that K_（vs） obeys Gaussian distribution. So K_（vs） is the suitable MMM parameter to establish reliability model of welded joints. At last, the original quantitative MMM reliability model is first presented based on the improved stress strength interference theory. It is shown that the reliability degree R gradually decreases with the decreasing of the residual life ratio T, and the maximal error between prediction reliability degree R_1 and verification reliability degree R_2 is 9.15%. This presented method provides a novel tool of reliability testing and evaluating in practical engineering for welded joints.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60873195,60873003,and 61070220)the Doctoral Foundation of Ministry of Education (No.20090111110002)
文摘With the rapid progress of component technology,the software development methodology of gathering a large number of components for designing complex software systems has matured.But,how to assess the application reliability accurately with the information of system architecture and the components reliabilities together has become a knotty problem.In this paper,the defects in formal description of software architecture and the limitations in existed model assumptions are both analyzed.Moreover,a new software reliability model called Component Interaction Mode(CIM) is proposed.With this model,the problem for existed component-based software reliability analysis models that cannot deal with the cases of component interaction with non-failure independent and non-random control transition is resolved.At last,the practice examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this model.
基金Projects(51178042,51578047)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(C14JB00340)supported by the Innovative Research Fund in Beijing Jiaotong University,ChinaProject(2014-ZJKJ-03)supported by Science and Technology Research and Development Fund of the China Communications Construction Co.,LTD
文摘A kind of hybrid reliability model is presented to solve the fatigue reliability problems of steel bridges. The cumulative damage model is one kind of the models used in fatigue reliability analysis. The parameter characteristics of the model can be described as probabilistic and interval. The two-stage hybrid reliability model is given with a theoretical foundation and a solving algorithm to solve the hybrid reliability problems. The theoretical foundation is established by the consistency relationships of interval reliability model and probability reliability model with normally distributed variables in theory. The solving process is combined with the definition of interval reliability index and the probabilistic algorithm. With the consideration of the parameter characteristics of the S-N curve, the cumulative damage model with hybrid variables is given based on the standards from different countries. Lastly, a case of steel structure in the Neville Island Bridge is analyzed to verify the applicability of the hybrid reliability model in fatigue reliability analysis based on the AASHTO.
基金supported by the National High-Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos.2006AA01Z187,2007AA040605)
文摘In traditional Bayesian software reliability models, it was assume that all probabilities are precise. In practical applications the parameters of the probability distributions are often under uncertainty due to strong dependence on subjective information of experts＇ judgments on sparse statistical data. In this paper, a quasi-Bayesian software reliability model using interval-valued probabilities to clearly quantify experts＇ prior beliefs on possible intervals of the parameters of the probability distributions is presented. The model integrates experts＇ judgments with statistical data to obtain more convincible assessments of software reliability with small samples. For some actual data sets, the presented model yields better predictions than the Jelinski-Moranda （JM） model using maximum likelihood （ML）.
文摘A typical man-machine-environment system is composed of astronaut, vehicle and space environment in the course of manned spaceflight. In this paper, the important role played by man and the factors on his capability in vehicle system have been described, and a stress-strength human reliability model is also put forward. In the end, it must be systematically considered to raise the astronaut's reliability.
文摘Modern satellite propulsion systems are generally designed to fulfill multiphase-missions.Traditional reliability modelling methods have problems of inadequate depict capacity considering complex systems such as satellite propulsion system.An extended object-oriented Petri net(EOOPN)method was proposed to facilitate the reliability modelling of satellite propulsion system in the paper.The proposed method was specified for modelling of phased mission system,and it could be implemented by generating combination of Petri net(PN)principles and object-oriented(OO)programming.The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through the reliability modelling of a satellite propulsion system with EOOPN.The major advantage of the proposed method is that the dimension of net model can be reduced significantly,and phased mission system at system,phase,or component levels can be respectively depicted.Furthermore,the state-space explosion problem is solved by the proposed EOOPN model efficiently.
文摘With the warranty requirements of key and important devices,the compound preventive warranty policy was introduced.For the effectiveness of compound preventive maintenance, the maintenance mode of periodic replacement with functional checks was adopted, its failure risk analysis was carried on, and the warranty reliability model was established. On the basis of above research,a numerical example was given to illustrate the engineering application and generality of the warranty reliability model.
基金supported by the Pre-research Foundation of CPLA General Equipment Department
文摘Testing-effort（TE） and imperfect debugging（ID） in the reliability modeling process may further improve the fitting and prediction results of software reliability growth models（SRGMs）. For describing the S-shaped varying trend of TE increasing rate more accurately, first, two S-shaped testing-effort functions（TEFs）, i.e.,delayed S-shaped TEF（DS-TEF） and inflected S-shaped TEF（IS-TEF）, are proposed. Then these two TEFs are incorporated into various types（exponential-type, delayed S-shaped and inflected S-shaped） of non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP）SRGMs with two forms of ID respectively for obtaining a series of new NHPP SRGMs which consider S-shaped TEFs as well as ID. Finally these new SRGMs and several comparison NHPP SRGMs are applied into four real failure data-sets respectively for investigating the fitting and prediction power of these new SRGMs.The experimental results show that：（i） the proposed IS-TEF is more suitable and flexible for describing the consumption of TE than the previous TEFs;（ii） incorporating TEFs into the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM may be more effective and appropriate compared with the exponential-type and the delayed S-shaped NHPP SRGMs;（iii） the inflected S-shaped NHPP SRGM considering both IS-TEF and ID yields the most accurate fitting and prediction results than the other comparison NHPP SRGMs.
基金supported by the International Technology Cooperation Project of Guizhou Province(QianKeHeWaiGZi[2012]7052)the National Scientific Research Project for Statistics(2012LZ054)
文摘As the web-server based business is rapidly developed and popularized, how to evaluate and improve the reliability of web-servers has been extremely important. Although a large num- ber of software reliability growth models （SRGMs）, including those combined with multiple change-points （CPs）, have been available, these conventional SRGMs cannot be directly applied to web soft- ware reliability analysis because of the complex web operational profile. To characterize the web operational profile precisely, it should be realized that the workload of a web server is normally non-homogeneous and often observed with the pattern of random impulsive shocks. A web software reliability model with random im- pulsive shocks and its statistical analysis method are developed. In the proposed model, the web server workload is characterized by a geometric Brownian motion process. Based on a real data set from IIS server logs of ICRMS website （www.icrms.cn）, the proposed model is demonstrated to be powerful for estimating impulsive shocks and web software reliability.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliability analysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificial intelligence technology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of a software project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a software reliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency in applications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of experimental models in SRES.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘According to the principle, “The failure data is the basis of software reliabilityanalysis”, we built a software reliability expert system (SRES) by adopting the artificialtechnology. By reasoning out the conclusion from the fitting results of failure data of asoftware project, the SRES can recommend users “the most suitable model” as a softwarereliability measurement model. We believe that the SRES can overcome the inconsistency inapplications of software reliability models well. We report investigation results of singularity and parameter estimation methods of models, LVLM and LVQM.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51135003,U1234208)National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,Grant No.2014CB046303)+3 种基金High-class CNC Machine Tools and Basic Manufacturing Equipment of Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects(Grant No.2013ZX04011-011)National Key Laboratory of Mechanical System and Vibration Project(Grant No.MSV201402)Scientific Research Business Fund of Central Colleges and Universities(Grant No.N150304006)Excellent Talents Support Program for Colleges and Universities in Liaoning Province of China(Grant No.LJQ2014030)
文摘The current research of reliability allocation of CNC lathes always treat CNC lathes as independent series systems. However, CNC lathes are complex systems in the actual situation. Failure correlation is rarely considered when reliabil?ity allocation is conducted. In this paper, drawbacks of reliability model based on failure independence assumption are illustrated, after which, reliability model of CNC lathes considering failure correlation of subsystems is established based on Copula theory, which is an improvement of traditional reliability model of series systems. As the failure time of CNC lathes often obeys Weibull or exponential distribution, Gumbel Copula is selected to build correlation model. After that, a reliability allocation method considering failure correlation is analyzed based on the model established before. Reliability goal is set first and then failure rates are allocated to subsystems according to the allocation vector through solving the correlation model. Reliability allocation is conducted for t = 1. A real case of a CNC lathe and a numerical case are presented together to illustrate the advantages of the reliability model established consider?ing failure correlation and the corresponding allocation method. It shows that the model accords to facts and real working condition more, and failure rates allocated to all the subsystems are increased to some extent. This research proposes a reliability allocation method which takes failure correlation among subsystems of CNC lathes into consid?eration, and costs for design and manufacture could be decreased.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.61573043)supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51675025)
文摘Existing Physics-of-Failure-based （PoF-based） system reliability prediction methods are grounded on the independence assumption, which overlooks the dependency among the compo- nents. In this paper, a new type of dependency, referred to as failure collaboration, is introduced and considered in reliability predictions. A PoF-based model is developed to describe the failure behavior of systems subject to failure collaboration. Based on the developed model, the Bisection-based Reliability Analysis Method （BRAM） is exploited to calculate the system reliability. The developed methods are applied to predicting the reliability of a Hydraulic Servo Actuator （HSA）. The results demonstrate that the developed methods outperform the traditional PoF-based reliability prediction methods when applied to systems subject to failure collaboration.
基金supported by National Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant No. 2007AA04Z403)Sichuan Provincial Key Technologies R&D Program of China(Grant No. 07GG012- 002)+1 种基金Gansu Provincial Basal Research Fund of the Higher Education Institutions of China (Grant No. GCJ 2009019)Research Fund of Lanzhou University of Technology of China(Grant No. BS02200903)
文摘The conventional stress-strength interference（SSI） model is a basic model for reliability analysis of mechanical components. In this model, the component reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being larger than the stress, where the component stress is generally represented by a single random variable（RV）. But for a component under multi-operating conditions, its reliability can not be calculated directly by using the SSI model. The problem arises from that the stress on a component under multi-operating conditions can not be described by a single RV properly. Current research concerning the SSI model mainly focuses on the calculation of the static or dynamic reliability of the component under single operation condition. To evaluate the component reliability under multi-operating conditions, this paper uses multiple discrete RVs based on the actual stress range of the component firstly. These discrete RVs have identical possible values and different corresponding probability value, which are used to represent the multi-operating conditions of the component. Then the component reliability under each operating condition is calculated, respectively, by employing the discrete SSI model and the universal generating function technique, and from this the discrete SSI model under multi-operating conditions is proposed. Finally the proposed model is applied to evaluate the reliability of a transmission component of the decelerator installed in an aeroengine. The reliability of this component during taking-off, cruising and landing phases of an aircraft are calculated, respectively. With this model, a basic method for reliability analysis of the component under complex load condition is provided, and the application range of the conventional SSI model is extended.
