To better capture the characteristics of asymmetry and structural fluctuations observed in count time series,this study delves into the application of the quantile regression(QR)method for analyzing and forecasting no...To better capture the characteristics of asymmetry and structural fluctuations observed in count time series,this study delves into the application of the quantile regression(QR)method for analyzing and forecasting nonlinear integer-valued time series exhibiting a piecewise phenomenon.Specifically,we focus on the parameter estimation in the first-order Self-Exciting Threshold Integer-valued Autoregressive(SETINAR(2,1))process with symmetry,asymmetry,and contaminated innovations.We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimator under certain regularity conditions.Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the superior performance of the QR method compared to the conditional least squares(CLS)approach.Furthermore,we validate the robustness of the proposed method through empirical quantile regression estimation and forecasting for larceny incidents and CAD drug call counts in Pittsburgh,showcasing its effectiveness across diverse levels of data heterogeneity.展开更多
In clinical research,subgroup analysis can help identify patient groups that respond better or worse to specific treatments,improve therapeutic effect and safety,and is of great significance in precision medicine.This...In clinical research,subgroup analysis can help identify patient groups that respond better or worse to specific treatments,improve therapeutic effect and safety,and is of great significance in precision medicine.This article considers subgroup analysis methods for longitudinal data containing multiple covariates and biomarkers.We divide subgroups based on whether a linear combination of these biomarkers exceeds a predetermined threshold,and assess the heterogeneity of treatment effects across subgroups using the interaction between subgroups and exposure variables.Quantile regression is used to better characterize the global distribution of the response variable and sparsity penalties are imposed to achieve variable selection of covariates and biomarkers.The effectiveness of our proposed methodology for both variable selection and parameter estimation is verified through random simulations.Finally,we demonstrate the application of this method by analyzing data from the PA.3 trial,further illustrating the practicality of the method proposed in this paper.展开更多
Branch size is a crucial characteristic,closely linked to both tree growth and wood quality.A review of existing branch size models reveals various approaches,but the ability to estimate branch diameter and length wit...Branch size is a crucial characteristic,closely linked to both tree growth and wood quality.A review of existing branch size models reveals various approaches,but the ability to estimate branch diameter and length within the same whorl remains underexplored.In this study,a total of 77 trees were sampled from Northeast China to model the vertical distribution of branch diameter and length within each whorl along the crown.Several commonly used functions were taken as the alternative model forms,and the quantile regression method was employed and compared with the classical two-step modeling approach.The analysis incorporated stand,tree,and competition factors,with a particular focus on how these factors influence branches of varying sizes.The modified Weibull function was chosen as the optimal model,due to its excellent performance across all quantiles.Eight quantile regression curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.85)were combined to predict branch diameter,while seven curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.80)were used for branch length.The results showed that the quantile regression method outperformed the classical approach at model fitting and validation,likely due to its ability to estimate different rates of change across the entire branch size distribution.Lager branches in each whorl were more sensitive to changes in DBH,crown length(CL),crown ratio(CR)and dominant tree height(H_(dom)),while slenderness(HDR)more effectively influenced small and medium-sized branches.The effect of stand basal area(BAS)was relatively consistent across different branch sizes.The findings indicate that quantile regression is a good way not only a more accurate method for predicting branch size but also a valuable tool for understanding how branch growth responds to stand and tree factors.The models developed in this study are prepared to be further integrated into tree growth and yield simulation system,contributing to the assessment and promotion of wood quality.展开更多
This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data hete...This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.展开更多
It is well known that the nonparametric estimation of the regression function is highly sensitive to the presence of even a small proportion of outliers in the data.To solve the problem of typical observations when th...It is well known that the nonparametric estimation of the regression function is highly sensitive to the presence of even a small proportion of outliers in the data.To solve the problem of typical observations when the covariates of the nonparametric component are functional,the robust estimates for the regression parameter and regression operator are introduced.The main propose of the paper is to consider data-driven methods of selecting the number of neighbors in order to make the proposed processes fully automatic.We use thek Nearest Neighbors procedure(kNN)to construct the kernel estimator of the proposed robust model.Under some regularity conditions,we state consistency results for kNN functional estimators,which are uniform in the number of neighbors(UINN).Furthermore,a simulation study and an empirical application to a real data analysis of octane gasoline predictions are carried out to illustrate the higher predictive performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.展开更多
Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantil...Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.展开更多
Quantile regression（QR） is proposed to examine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and all parts of the distribution of daily precipitation amount at Beijing Station from 1960 to 2008. QR is ...Quantile regression（QR） is proposed to examine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and all parts of the distribution of daily precipitation amount at Beijing Station from 1960 to 2008. QR is also applied to evaluate the relationship between large-scale predictors and extreme precipitation（90th quantile） at 238 stations in northern China.Finally, QR is used to fit observed daily precipitation amounts for wet days at four sample stations. Results show that meridional wind and specific humidity at both 850 h Pa and 500 h Pa（V850, SH850, V500, and SH500） strongly affect all parts of the Beijing precipitation distribution during the wet season（April–September）. Meridional wind, zonal wind, and specific humidity at only 850 h Pa（V850, U850, SH850） are significantly related to the precipitation distribution in the dry season（October–March）. Impacts of these large-scale predictors on the daily precipitation amount with higher quantile become stronger, whereas their impact on light precipitation is negligible. In addition, SH850 has a strong relationship with wet-season extreme precipitation across the entire region, whereas the impacts of V850, V500, and SH500 are mainly in semi-arid and semi-humid areas. For the dry season, both SH850 and V850 are the major predictors of extreme precipitation in the entire region. Moreover, QR can satisfactorily simulate the daily precipitation amount at each station and for each season, if an optimum distribution family is selected. Therefore, QR is valuable for detecting the relationship between the large-scale predictors and the daily precipitation amount.展开更多
Genomic prediction(GP)has become a valuable tool for predicting the performance of selection candidates for the next breeding cycle.A vast majority of statistical linear models on which GP is based rely on the assumpt...Genomic prediction(GP)has become a valuable tool for predicting the performance of selection candidates for the next breeding cycle.A vast majority of statistical linear models on which GP is based rely on the assumption of normality of the residuals and therefore on the response variable itself.In this study,we propose to use Bayesian regularized quantile regression(BRQR)in the context of GP;the model has been successfully used in other research areas.We evaluated the prediction ability of the proposed model and compared it with the Bayesian ridge regression(BRR;equivalent to genomic best linear unbiased predictor,GBLUP).In addition,BLUP can be used with pedigree information obtained from the coefficient of coancestry(ABLUP).We have found that the prediction ability of BRQR is comparable to that of BRR and,in some cases,better;it also has the potential to efficiently deal with outliers.A program written in the R statistical package is available as Supplementary material.展开更多
Purpose–This study aimed to facilitate a rapid evaluation of track service status and vehicle ride comfort based on car body acceleration.Consequently,a low-cost,data-driven approach was proposed for analyzing speed-...Purpose–This study aimed to facilitate a rapid evaluation of track service status and vehicle ride comfort based on car body acceleration.Consequently,a low-cost,data-driven approach was proposed for analyzing speed-related acceleration limits in metro systems.Design/methodology/approach–A portable sensing terminal was developed to realize easy and efficient detection of car body acceleration.Further,field measurements were performed on a 51.95-km metro line.Data from 272 metro sections were tested as a case study,and a quantile regression method was proposed to fit the control limits of the car body acceleration at different speeds using the measured data.Findings–First,the frequency statistics of the measured data in the speed-acceleration dimension indicated that the car body acceleration was primarily concentrated within the constant speed stage,particularly at speeds of 15.4,18.3,and 20.9 m/s.Second,resampling was performed according to the probability density distribution of car body acceleration for different speed domains to achieve data balance.Finally,combined with the traditional linear relationship between speed and acceleration,the statistical relationships between the speed and car body acceleration under different quantiles were determined.We concluded the lateral/vertical quantiles of 0.8989/0.9895,0.9942/0.997,and 0.9998/0.993 as being excellent,good,and qualified control limits,respectively,for the lateral and vertical acceleration of the car body.In addition,regression lines for the speedrelated acceleration limits at other quantiles(0.5,0.75,2s,and 3s)were obtained.Originality/value–The proposed method is expected to serve as a reference for further studies on speedrelated acceleration limits in rail transit systems.展开更多
Under the background of accelerated integrated urban-rural development, this paper offers an analysis on the short-term employment of rural migrants in China and resulting wage gap between long-term and short-term rur...Under the background of accelerated integrated urban-rural development, this paper offers an analysis on the short-term employment of rural migrants in China and resulting wage gap between long-term and short-term rural migrants. On the basis of correcting for sample selection problems arising from labor market participation and short-term employment, rural migrants＇ wage function is estimated using quantile regression method, and wage gap between long-term and short-term rural migrants is decomposed using MM method. Our empirical results suggest that those with a higher level of education, training experience and local employment recommended by family relations or in formal labor market are more likely to secure long-term labor contract,＂ region and education have significant contributions to the wage of rural migrants,＂ rural migrants of both long- and short-term contract types have great gaps at the bottom of salary distribution; and there exists a sticky floor effect in wage difference of rural migrants. These results have important policy implications in enhancing employment stability of rural migrants, improving income distribution equity, speeding up the process of urbanization, and balancing regional development.展开更多
Scour has been widely accepted as a key reason for bridge failures.Bridges are susceptible and sensitive to the scour phenomenon,which describes the loss of riverbed sediments around the bridge supports because of flo...Scour has been widely accepted as a key reason for bridge failures.Bridges are susceptible and sensitive to the scour phenomenon,which describes the loss of riverbed sediments around the bridge supports because of flow.The carrying capacity of a deep-water foundation is influenced by the formation of a scour hole,which means that a severe scour can lead to a bridge failure without warning.Most of the current scour predictions are based on deterministic models,while other loads at bridges are usually provided as probabilistic values.To integrate scour factors with other loads in bridge design and research,a quantile regression model was utilized to estimate scour depth.Field data and experimental data from previous studies were collected to build the model.Moreover,scour estimations using the HEC-18 equation and the proposed method were compared.By using the“CCC(Calculate,Confirm,and Check)”procedure,the probabilistic concept could be used to calculate various scour depths with the targeted likelihood according to a specified chance of bridge failure.The study shows that with a sufficiently large and continuously updated database,the proposed model could present reasonable results and provide guidance for scour mitigation.展开更多
The lack of covariate data is one of the hotspots of modern statistical analysis.It often appears in surveys or interviews,and becomes more complex in the presence of heavy tailed,skewed,and heteroscedastic data.In th...The lack of covariate data is one of the hotspots of modern statistical analysis.It often appears in surveys or interviews,and becomes more complex in the presence of heavy tailed,skewed,and heteroscedastic data.In this sense,a robust quantile regression method is more concerned.This paper presents an inverse weighted quantile regression method to explore the relationship between response and covariates.This method has several advantages over the naive estimator.On the one hand,it uses all available data and the missing covariates are allowed to be heavily correlated with the response;on the other hand,the estimator is uniform and asymptotically normal at all quantile levels.The effectiveness of this method is verified by simulation.Finally,in order to illustrate the effectiveness of this method,we extend it to the more general case,multivariate case and nonparametric case.展开更多
An airborne multi-spectral camera was used in this study to estimate rice yields.The experimental data were achieved by obtaining a multi-spectral image of the rice canopy in an experimental field throughout the joint...An airborne multi-spectral camera was used in this study to estimate rice yields.The experimental data were achieved by obtaining a multi-spectral image of the rice canopy in an experimental field throughout the jointing stage(July,2017)and extracting five vegetation indices.Vegetation indices and rice growth parameter data were compared and analyzed.Effective predictors were screened by using significance analysis and quantile and ordinary least square(OLS)regression models estimating rice yields were constructed.The results showed that a quantile regression model based on normalized difference vegetation indices(NDVI)and rice yields performed was best forτ=0.7 quantile.Thus,NDVI was determined as an effective variable for the rice yield estimation during the jointing stage.The accuracy of the quantile regression estimation model was then assessed using RMES and MAPE test indicators.The yields by this approach had better results than those of an OLS regression estimation model and showed that quantile regression had practical applications and research significance in rice yields estimation.展开更多
Based on the investigation data of social position of national women in the third phase by National Women's Federation and National Bureau of Statistics in 2010,regression analysis on sex wage difference is conduc...Based on the investigation data of social position of national women in the third phase by National Women's Federation and National Bureau of Statistics in 2010,regression analysis on sex wage difference is conducted. It is divided into two parts. The first part is the impact on wage by sex,and it is divided into whole country,eastern,central and western regions. The second part is the impact on wage by different education backgrounds. It tries to explore sex wage difference situation at different positions of wage distribution,study if there exists " ceiling effect" or " floor effect" in population's wage distribution situation,sex wage difference situation in eastern,central and western regions and the education's impact on future income situations of men and women.展开更多
Climate change is described as a potentially catastrophic phenomenon with the capacity to disrupt agricultural production, economies, health systems, education, and infrastructure, among other systems. In Florida, cli...Climate change is described as a potentially catastrophic phenomenon with the capacity to disrupt agricultural production, economies, health systems, education, and infrastructure, among other systems. In Florida, climate change is a concern because of the state’s extensive coastline and its influence on the economy, as well as residents’ safety and well-being. As early as 2007, researchers forecasted that vulnerable wetlands, mangroves, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure in Florida may be significantly damaged or destroyed by 2060. Climate change communication (CCC) is described as a complex problem that requires several layers of attention, especially in achieving the desired outcome of behavior change. Previous research suggested that climate change communicators would be more effective if they understood their audiences and their communication capacities. The purpose of the study was to determine the impact of demographic factors on social communication for residents of Florida. A survey was used to collect the data through an address-based sampling (ABS) method, where a total of 318 usable responses were received from Florida residence 18 years or older. A latent construct for describing social communication (Social Communication Index [SCI]) was created as the dependent variable and was tested against eight variables using a quantile regression approach. Using quantiles in 0.1 intervals, the results showed that knowledge, age, income, newspaper use, urbanicity, and race affected the SCI in one or more quantiles. Social media, sex, and religiosity were insignificant throughout all quantiles. While most of the results align with previous research, there is the need for further probing into social communication on climate change to ensure that audience segments are provided with climate change information through the channels they primarily use.展开更多
Value at risk(VaR)and expected shortfall(ES)have emerged as standard measures for detecting the market risk of financial assets and play essential roles in investment decisions,external regulations,and risk capital al...Value at risk(VaR)and expected shortfall(ES)have emerged as standard measures for detecting the market risk of financial assets and play essential roles in investment decisions,external regulations,and risk capital allocation.However,existing VaR estimation approaches fail to accurately reflect downside risks,and the ES estimation technique is quite limited owing to its challenging implementation.This causes financial institutions to overestimate or underestimate investment risk and finally leads to the inefficient allocation of financial resources.The main purpose of this study is to use machine learning to improve the accuracy of VaR estimation and provide an effective tool for ES estimation.Specifically,this study proposes a VaR estimator by combining quantile regression with“Mogrifier”recurrent neural networks to capture the“long memory”and“clustering”properties of financial assets;while for estimating ES,this study directly models the quantile of assets and employs generative adversarial networks to generate future tail risk scenarios.In addition to the typical properties of financial assets,the model design is also consistent with heterogeneous market theory.An empirical application to four major global stock indices shows that our model is superior to other existing models.展开更多
In this paper, three smoothed empirical log-likelihood ratio functions for the parameters of nonlinear models with missing response are suggested. Under some regular conditions, the corresponding Wilks phenomena are o...In this paper, three smoothed empirical log-likelihood ratio functions for the parameters of nonlinear models with missing response are suggested. Under some regular conditions, the corresponding Wilks phenomena are obtained and the confidence regions for the parameter can be constructed easily.展开更多
As the world’s fourth most populous country,Indonesia presents challenges and opportunities for sustainable energy progress,offering a critical context to investigate green human development(GHD).This study uniquely ...As the world’s fourth most populous country,Indonesia presents challenges and opportunities for sustainable energy progress,offering a critical context to investigate green human development(GHD).This study uniquely contributes to the literature by employing the planetary pressures-adjusted human development index(PHDI)as an indicator of GHD,which integrates environmental impacts into human development.Using static and dynamic econometric methods,including the quantile regression and autoregressive distributed lag model,it explores the impacts of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption on GHD.The findings demonstrate that renewable energy currently has a detrimental impact on GHD due to its limited adoption and high costs.Conversely,nonrenewable energy positively influences GHD,as it is the primary energy source in the country and is becoming more efficient at reducing emissions.However,the study finds that greater use of renewable energy reduces its adverse effects,suggesting that as renewable energy technologies become more cost-effective and widely implemented,their initial adverse effects could be mitigated,leading to improved long-term GHD outcomes.These findings carry important implications for Indonesia,where the govern‐ment is striving to expand renewable energy capacity while promoting equitable development across its archi‐pelagic regions.They underscore the critical role of energy policy in balancing economic,social,and environmental goals,contributing meaningfully to the country’s sustainable development agenda.展开更多
Understanding the urban-rural development mechanism is critical for implementing rural revival and new-type urbanization.However,it remains a challenge to quantify the urban-rural integrated development level(URIDL)an...Understanding the urban-rural development mechanism is critical for implementing rural revival and new-type urbanization.However,it remains a challenge to quantify the urban-rural integrated development level(URIDL)and its impact factors.Hence,we constructed an assessment system for the URIDL from spatial,economic,social,life,and ecological integration.The spatial autocorrelation and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to assess the spatiotemporal variation of the URIDL and the trade-off synergistic relationship among the subsystems at the provincial scale in China using socio-economic statistical data from 2000 to 2020.A spatial panel quantile regression model was used to analyze the driving mechanism.The results showed that the URIDL of China increased by 0.19%from 2000 to 2020,and a high-high(H-H)spatial agglomeration pattern occurred in the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.Spatial integration significantly contributed to the other subsystems,whereas economic integration had a significant negative impact on the other subsystems in the eastern coastal and southwestern regions.Per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)improved the URIDL,whereas other factors,such as fiscal revenue decentralization,had inhibiting effects.Notably,the impact of factors on URIDL varies across different quantiles.Finally,we proposed policy recommendations for differentiated improvement of URIDL based on its evolution and regional development level during the research period.展开更多
Low levels of environmental education,energy consumption,and other anthropogenic factors strongly contribute to the rising temperature in the world's atmosphere.As such,this study reveals how energy consumption an...Low levels of environmental education,energy consumption,and other anthropogenic factors strongly contribute to the rising temperature in the world's atmosphere.As such,this study reveals how energy consumption and education affect the ecological footprint(EF)and also determines the education thresholds for EF sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA).The estimation methods in this study are strictly second-generation econometric techniques because of the problems of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence discovered in the preliminary analysis.The results confirm cointegration,warranting the need for long-run parameter estimators.The Augment Mean Group estimator suggests that natural resources,non-renewable energy consumption(NRE),and economic growth increase the EF.Although renewable energy consumption(REN)and globalization reduce the EF,these indicators are insignificant.The results of the Method of Moment Quantile Regression(MMQR)reveal that REN exacts an indirect effect on the EF via education.Furthermore,the education thresholds required for ecological sustainability have been established.In line with these outcomes,it is proposed that the region redesign its energy policy to encourage eco-friendly consumption by leaning more on pro-environmental strategies and tightening environmental regulations.展开更多
基金supported by Social Science Planning Foundation of Liaoning Province(Grand No.L22ZD065)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grand Nos.12271231,1247012719,12001229)。
文摘To better capture the characteristics of asymmetry and structural fluctuations observed in count time series,this study delves into the application of the quantile regression(QR)method for analyzing and forecasting nonlinear integer-valued time series exhibiting a piecewise phenomenon.Specifically,we focus on the parameter estimation in the first-order Self-Exciting Threshold Integer-valued Autoregressive(SETINAR(2,1))process with symmetry,asymmetry,and contaminated innovations.We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimator under certain regularity conditions.Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the superior performance of the QR method compared to the conditional least squares(CLS)approach.Furthermore,we validate the robustness of the proposed method through empirical quantile regression estimation and forecasting for larceny incidents and CAD drug call counts in Pittsburgh,showcasing its effectiveness across diverse levels of data heterogeneity.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2022J011177,2024J01903)the Key Project of Fujian Provincial Education Department(JZ230054)。
文摘In clinical research,subgroup analysis can help identify patient groups that respond better or worse to specific treatments,improve therapeutic effect and safety,and is of great significance in precision medicine.This article considers subgroup analysis methods for longitudinal data containing multiple covariates and biomarkers.We divide subgroups based on whether a linear combination of these biomarkers exceeds a predetermined threshold,and assess the heterogeneity of treatment effects across subgroups using the interaction between subgroups and exposure variables.Quantile regression is used to better characterize the global distribution of the response variable and sparsity penalties are imposed to achieve variable selection of covariates and biomarkers.The effectiveness of our proposed methodology for both variable selection and parameter estimation is verified through random simulations.Finally,we demonstrate the application of this method by analyzing data from the PA.3 trial,further illustrating the practicality of the method proposed in this paper.
基金supported by the Young Scientists Fund of the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2022YFD2201800)the Youth Science Fund Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32301581)+2 种基金the Joint Funds for Regional Innovation and Development of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U21A20244)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2024M750383)the Heilongjiang Touyan Innovation Team Program(Technology Development Team for High-Efficiency Silviculture of Forest Resources).
文摘Branch size is a crucial characteristic,closely linked to both tree growth and wood quality.A review of existing branch size models reveals various approaches,but the ability to estimate branch diameter and length within the same whorl remains underexplored.In this study,a total of 77 trees were sampled from Northeast China to model the vertical distribution of branch diameter and length within each whorl along the crown.Several commonly used functions were taken as the alternative model forms,and the quantile regression method was employed and compared with the classical two-step modeling approach.The analysis incorporated stand,tree,and competition factors,with a particular focus on how these factors influence branches of varying sizes.The modified Weibull function was chosen as the optimal model,due to its excellent performance across all quantiles.Eight quantile regression curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.85)were combined to predict branch diameter,while seven curves(ranging from 0.20 to 0.80)were used for branch length.The results showed that the quantile regression method outperformed the classical approach at model fitting and validation,likely due to its ability to estimate different rates of change across the entire branch size distribution.Lager branches in each whorl were more sensitive to changes in DBH,crown length(CL),crown ratio(CR)and dominant tree height(H_(dom)),while slenderness(HDR)more effectively influenced small and medium-sized branches.The effect of stand basal area(BAS)was relatively consistent across different branch sizes.The findings indicate that quantile regression is a good way not only a more accurate method for predicting branch size but also a valuable tool for understanding how branch growth responds to stand and tree factors.The models developed in this study are prepared to be further integrated into tree growth and yield simulation system,contributing to the assessment and promotion of wood quality.
基金supported by the Key Project of National Key Technology R&D Program of China(2009BADA9B01)
文摘This paper studies how the price movements of pork,chicken and egg respond to those of related cost factors in short terms in Chinese market.We employ a linear quantile approach not only to explore potential data heteroscedasticity but also to generate confidence bands for the purpose of price stability study.We then evaluate our models by comparing the prediction intervals generated from the quantile regression models with in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Using monthly data from January 2000 to October 2010,we observed these findings：（i） the price changes of cost factors asymmetrically and unequally influence those of the livestock across different quantiles;（ii） the performance of our models is robust and consistent for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts;（iii） the confidence intervals generated from 0.05th and 0.95th quantile regression models are good methods to forecast livestock price fluctuation.
文摘It is well known that the nonparametric estimation of the regression function is highly sensitive to the presence of even a small proportion of outliers in the data.To solve the problem of typical observations when the covariates of the nonparametric component are functional,the robust estimates for the regression parameter and regression operator are introduced.The main propose of the paper is to consider data-driven methods of selecting the number of neighbors in order to make the proposed processes fully automatic.We use thek Nearest Neighbors procedure(kNN)to construct the kernel estimator of the proposed robust model.Under some regularity conditions,we state consistency results for kNN functional estimators,which are uniform in the number of neighbors(UINN).Furthermore,a simulation study and an empirical application to a real data analysis of octane gasoline predictions are carried out to illustrate the higher predictive performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No.42375192)the China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Special Program (CMA-CCSP+1 种基金Project No.QBZ202315)support by the Vector Stiftung through the Young Investigator Group"Artificial Intelligence for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting."
文摘Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,under-dispersed.As such,forecast calibration tools have become popular.Among those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive performance.Nevertheless,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated forecasts.On this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without crossing.The overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive entries.The empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing models.Formal and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all competitors.Furthermore,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China "973" Program (Grant No. 2012CB956203)the Knowledge Innovation Project (Grant No. KZCX2-EW-202)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91325108 and 51339004)
文摘Quantile regression（QR） is proposed to examine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and all parts of the distribution of daily precipitation amount at Beijing Station from 1960 to 2008. QR is also applied to evaluate the relationship between large-scale predictors and extreme precipitation（90th quantile） at 238 stations in northern China.Finally, QR is used to fit observed daily precipitation amounts for wet days at four sample stations. Results show that meridional wind and specific humidity at both 850 h Pa and 500 h Pa（V850, SH850, V500, and SH500） strongly affect all parts of the Beijing precipitation distribution during the wet season（April–September）. Meridional wind, zonal wind, and specific humidity at only 850 h Pa（V850, U850, SH850） are significantly related to the precipitation distribution in the dry season（October–March）. Impacts of these large-scale predictors on the daily precipitation amount with higher quantile become stronger, whereas their impact on light precipitation is negligible. In addition, SH850 has a strong relationship with wet-season extreme precipitation across the entire region, whereas the impacts of V850, V500, and SH500 are mainly in semi-arid and semi-humid areas. For the dry season, both SH850 and V850 are the major predictors of extreme precipitation in the entire region. Moreover, QR can satisfactorily simulate the daily precipitation amount at each station and for each season, if an optimum distribution family is selected. Therefore, QR is valuable for detecting the relationship between the large-scale predictors and the daily precipitation amount.
基金The maize and wheat data set used in this study comes from the Drought Tolerance Maize for Africa Project and from CIMMYT's Global Wheat Program.We are thankful to everyone who generated the data used in this article.
文摘Genomic prediction(GP)has become a valuable tool for predicting the performance of selection candidates for the next breeding cycle.A vast majority of statistical linear models on which GP is based rely on the assumption of normality of the residuals and therefore on the response variable itself.In this study,we propose to use Bayesian regularized quantile regression(BRQR)in the context of GP;the model has been successfully used in other research areas.We evaluated the prediction ability of the proposed model and compared it with the Bayesian ridge regression(BRR;equivalent to genomic best linear unbiased predictor,GBLUP).In addition,BLUP can be used with pedigree information obtained from the coefficient of coancestry(ABLUP).We have found that the prediction ability of BRQR is comparable to that of BRR and,in some cases,better;it also has the potential to efficiently deal with outliers.A program written in the R statistical package is available as Supplementary material.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under No.52308473the National KeyR&DProgram under No.2022YFB2603301the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project(Certificate Number:2023M743895).
文摘Purpose–This study aimed to facilitate a rapid evaluation of track service status and vehicle ride comfort based on car body acceleration.Consequently,a low-cost,data-driven approach was proposed for analyzing speed-related acceleration limits in metro systems.Design/methodology/approach–A portable sensing terminal was developed to realize easy and efficient detection of car body acceleration.Further,field measurements were performed on a 51.95-km metro line.Data from 272 metro sections were tested as a case study,and a quantile regression method was proposed to fit the control limits of the car body acceleration at different speeds using the measured data.Findings–First,the frequency statistics of the measured data in the speed-acceleration dimension indicated that the car body acceleration was primarily concentrated within the constant speed stage,particularly at speeds of 15.4,18.3,and 20.9 m/s.Second,resampling was performed according to the probability density distribution of car body acceleration for different speed domains to achieve data balance.Finally,combined with the traditional linear relationship between speed and acceleration,the statistical relationships between the speed and car body acceleration under different quantiles were determined.We concluded the lateral/vertical quantiles of 0.8989/0.9895,0.9942/0.997,and 0.9998/0.993 as being excellent,good,and qualified control limits,respectively,for the lateral and vertical acceleration of the car body.In addition,regression lines for the speedrelated acceleration limits at other quantiles(0.5,0.75,2s,and 3s)were obtained.Originality/value–The proposed method is expected to serve as a reference for further studies on speedrelated acceleration limits in rail transit systems.
文摘Under the background of accelerated integrated urban-rural development, this paper offers an analysis on the short-term employment of rural migrants in China and resulting wage gap between long-term and short-term rural migrants. On the basis of correcting for sample selection problems arising from labor market participation and short-term employment, rural migrants＇ wage function is estimated using quantile regression method, and wage gap between long-term and short-term rural migrants is decomposed using MM method. Our empirical results suggest that those with a higher level of education, training experience and local employment recommended by family relations or in formal labor market are more likely to secure long-term labor contract,＂ region and education have significant contributions to the wage of rural migrants,＂ rural migrants of both long- and short-term contract types have great gaps at the bottom of salary distribution; and there exists a sticky floor effect in wage difference of rural migrants. These results have important policy implications in enhancing employment stability of rural migrants, improving income distribution equity, speeding up the process of urbanization, and balancing regional development.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51908421 and 41172246).
文摘Scour has been widely accepted as a key reason for bridge failures.Bridges are susceptible and sensitive to the scour phenomenon,which describes the loss of riverbed sediments around the bridge supports because of flow.The carrying capacity of a deep-water foundation is influenced by the formation of a scour hole,which means that a severe scour can lead to a bridge failure without warning.Most of the current scour predictions are based on deterministic models,while other loads at bridges are usually provided as probabilistic values.To integrate scour factors with other loads in bridge design and research,a quantile regression model was utilized to estimate scour depth.Field data and experimental data from previous studies were collected to build the model.Moreover,scour estimations using the HEC-18 equation and the proposed method were compared.By using the“CCC(Calculate,Confirm,and Check)”procedure,the probabilistic concept could be used to calculate various scour depths with the targeted likelihood according to a specified chance of bridge failure.The study shows that with a sufficiently large and continuously updated database,the proposed model could present reasonable results and provide guidance for scour mitigation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11861042)the China Statistical Research Project(Grant No.2020LZ25)。
文摘The lack of covariate data is one of the hotspots of modern statistical analysis.It often appears in surveys or interviews,and becomes more complex in the presence of heavy tailed,skewed,and heteroscedastic data.In this sense,a robust quantile regression method is more concerned.This paper presents an inverse weighted quantile regression method to explore the relationship between response and covariates.This method has several advantages over the naive estimator.On the one hand,it uses all available data and the missing covariates are allowed to be heavily correlated with the response;on the other hand,the estimator is uniform and asymptotically normal at all quantile levels.The effectiveness of this method is verified by simulation.Finally,in order to illustrate the effectiveness of this method,we extend it to the more general case,multivariate case and nonparametric case.
基金Supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2016YFD020060305)。
文摘An airborne multi-spectral camera was used in this study to estimate rice yields.The experimental data were achieved by obtaining a multi-spectral image of the rice canopy in an experimental field throughout the jointing stage(July,2017)and extracting five vegetation indices.Vegetation indices and rice growth parameter data were compared and analyzed.Effective predictors were screened by using significance analysis and quantile and ordinary least square(OLS)regression models estimating rice yields were constructed.The results showed that a quantile regression model based on normalized difference vegetation indices(NDVI)and rice yields performed was best forτ=0.7 quantile.Thus,NDVI was determined as an effective variable for the rice yield estimation during the jointing stage.The accuracy of the quantile regression estimation model was then assessed using RMES and MAPE test indicators.The yields by this approach had better results than those of an OLS regression estimation model and showed that quantile regression had practical applications and research significance in rice yields estimation.
文摘Based on the investigation data of social position of national women in the third phase by National Women's Federation and National Bureau of Statistics in 2010,regression analysis on sex wage difference is conducted. It is divided into two parts. The first part is the impact on wage by sex,and it is divided into whole country,eastern,central and western regions. The second part is the impact on wage by different education backgrounds. It tries to explore sex wage difference situation at different positions of wage distribution,study if there exists " ceiling effect" or " floor effect" in population's wage distribution situation,sex wage difference situation in eastern,central and western regions and the education's impact on future income situations of men and women.
文摘Climate change is described as a potentially catastrophic phenomenon with the capacity to disrupt agricultural production, economies, health systems, education, and infrastructure, among other systems. In Florida, climate change is a concern because of the state’s extensive coastline and its influence on the economy, as well as residents’ safety and well-being. As early as 2007, researchers forecasted that vulnerable wetlands, mangroves, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure in Florida may be significantly damaged or destroyed by 2060. Climate change communication (CCC) is described as a complex problem that requires several layers of attention, especially in achieving the desired outcome of behavior change. Previous research suggested that climate change communicators would be more effective if they understood their audiences and their communication capacities. The purpose of the study was to determine the impact of demographic factors on social communication for residents of Florida. A survey was used to collect the data through an address-based sampling (ABS) method, where a total of 318 usable responses were received from Florida residence 18 years or older. A latent construct for describing social communication (Social Communication Index [SCI]) was created as the dependent variable and was tested against eight variables using a quantile regression approach. Using quantiles in 0.1 intervals, the results showed that knowledge, age, income, newspaper use, urbanicity, and race affected the SCI in one or more quantiles. Social media, sex, and religiosity were insignificant throughout all quantiles. While most of the results align with previous research, there is the need for further probing into social communication on climate change to ensure that audience segments are provided with climate change information through the channels they primarily use.
基金supported by the Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation(20212ACB211003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71671029).
文摘Value at risk(VaR)and expected shortfall(ES)have emerged as standard measures for detecting the market risk of financial assets and play essential roles in investment decisions,external regulations,and risk capital allocation.However,existing VaR estimation approaches fail to accurately reflect downside risks,and the ES estimation technique is quite limited owing to its challenging implementation.This causes financial institutions to overestimate or underestimate investment risk and finally leads to the inefficient allocation of financial resources.The main purpose of this study is to use machine learning to improve the accuracy of VaR estimation and provide an effective tool for ES estimation.Specifically,this study proposes a VaR estimator by combining quantile regression with“Mogrifier”recurrent neural networks to capture the“long memory”and“clustering”properties of financial assets;while for estimating ES,this study directly models the quantile of assets and employs generative adversarial networks to generate future tail risk scenarios.In addition to the typical properties of financial assets,the model design is also consistent with heterogeneous market theory.An empirical application to four major global stock indices shows that our model is superior to other existing models.
文摘In this paper, three smoothed empirical log-likelihood ratio functions for the parameters of nonlinear models with missing response are suggested. Under some regular conditions, the corresponding Wilks phenomena are obtained and the confidence regions for the parameter can be constructed easily.
文摘As the world’s fourth most populous country,Indonesia presents challenges and opportunities for sustainable energy progress,offering a critical context to investigate green human development(GHD).This study uniquely contributes to the literature by employing the planetary pressures-adjusted human development index(PHDI)as an indicator of GHD,which integrates environmental impacts into human development.Using static and dynamic econometric methods,including the quantile regression and autoregressive distributed lag model,it explores the impacts of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption on GHD.The findings demonstrate that renewable energy currently has a detrimental impact on GHD due to its limited adoption and high costs.Conversely,nonrenewable energy positively influences GHD,as it is the primary energy source in the country and is becoming more efficient at reducing emissions.However,the study finds that greater use of renewable energy reduces its adverse effects,suggesting that as renewable energy technologies become more cost-effective and widely implemented,their initial adverse effects could be mitigated,leading to improved long-term GHD outcomes.These findings carry important implications for Indonesia,where the govern‐ment is striving to expand renewable energy capacity while promoting equitable development across its archi‐pelagic regions.They underscore the critical role of energy policy in balancing economic,social,and environmental goals,contributing meaningfully to the country’s sustainable development agenda.
基金Under the auspices of National Key Research and Development Program(No.2023YFC3804001)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42201440)。
文摘Understanding the urban-rural development mechanism is critical for implementing rural revival and new-type urbanization.However,it remains a challenge to quantify the urban-rural integrated development level(URIDL)and its impact factors.Hence,we constructed an assessment system for the URIDL from spatial,economic,social,life,and ecological integration.The spatial autocorrelation and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to assess the spatiotemporal variation of the URIDL and the trade-off synergistic relationship among the subsystems at the provincial scale in China using socio-economic statistical data from 2000 to 2020.A spatial panel quantile regression model was used to analyze the driving mechanism.The results showed that the URIDL of China increased by 0.19%from 2000 to 2020,and a high-high(H-H)spatial agglomeration pattern occurred in the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.Spatial integration significantly contributed to the other subsystems,whereas economic integration had a significant negative impact on the other subsystems in the eastern coastal and southwestern regions.Per capita Gross Domestic Product(GDP)improved the URIDL,whereas other factors,such as fiscal revenue decentralization,had inhibiting effects.Notably,the impact of factors on URIDL varies across different quantiles.Finally,we proposed policy recommendations for differentiated improvement of URIDL based on its evolution and regional development level during the research period.
文摘Low levels of environmental education,energy consumption,and other anthropogenic factors strongly contribute to the rising temperature in the world's atmosphere.As such,this study reveals how energy consumption and education affect the ecological footprint(EF)and also determines the education thresholds for EF sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA).The estimation methods in this study are strictly second-generation econometric techniques because of the problems of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence discovered in the preliminary analysis.The results confirm cointegration,warranting the need for long-run parameter estimators.The Augment Mean Group estimator suggests that natural resources,non-renewable energy consumption(NRE),and economic growth increase the EF.Although renewable energy consumption(REN)and globalization reduce the EF,these indicators are insignificant.The results of the Method of Moment Quantile Regression(MMQR)reveal that REN exacts an indirect effect on the EF via education.Furthermore,the education thresholds required for ecological sustainability have been established.In line with these outcomes,it is proposed that the region redesign its energy policy to encourage eco-friendly consumption by leaning more on pro-environmental strategies and tightening environmental regulations.
