In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the impr...In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake predict...Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.展开更多
The organization of coordinated attack and the selection of aiming point which affect hit probability were analyzed for the countermeasures taken by the hostile submarines at two helicopters' coordinated attack.A ...The organization of coordinated attack and the selection of aiming point which affect hit probability were analyzed for the countermeasures taken by the hostile submarines at two helicopters' coordinated attack.A computational model of coordinated attack parameters,a model of submarine maneuver,and a model of noise jammer were established.Compared to single helicopter' torpedo attack,the coordinated attack of two helicopters can effectively increase the hit probability of torpedo and achieve the higher target detecting probability under counterwork condition.展开更多
文摘In the evaluation of some simulation systems, only small samples data are gotten due to the limited conditions. In allusion to the evaluation problem of small sample data, an interval estimation approach with the improved grey confidence degree is proposed.On the basis of the definition of grey distance, three kinds of definition of the grey weight for every sample element in grey estimated value are put forward, and then the improved grey confidence degree is designed. In accordance with the new concept, the grey interval estimation for small sample data is deduced. Furthermore,the bootstrap method is applied for more accurate grey confidence interval. Through resampling of the bootstrap, numerous small samples with the corresponding confidence intervals can be obtained. Then the final confidence interval is calculated from the union of these grey confidence intervals. In the end, the simulation system evaluation using the proposed method is conducted. The simulation results show that the reasonable confidence interval is acquired, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
文摘Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the rela tion between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.
文摘The organization of coordinated attack and the selection of aiming point which affect hit probability were analyzed for the countermeasures taken by the hostile submarines at two helicopters' coordinated attack.A computational model of coordinated attack parameters,a model of submarine maneuver,and a model of noise jammer were established.Compared to single helicopter' torpedo attack,the coordinated attack of two helicopters can effectively increase the hit probability of torpedo and achieve the higher target detecting probability under counterwork condition.
