Re-entry gliding vehicles exhibit high maneuverability,making trajectory prediction a key factor in the effectiveness of defense systems.To overcome the limited fitting accuracy of existing methods and their poor adap...Re-entry gliding vehicles exhibit high maneuverability,making trajectory prediction a key factor in the effectiveness of defense systems.To overcome the limited fitting accuracy of existing methods and their poor adaptability to maneuver mode mutations,a trajectory prediction method is proposed that integrates online maneuver mode identification with dynamic modeling.Characteristic parameters are extracted from tracking data for parameterized modeling,enabling real-time identification of maneuver modes.In addition,a maneuver detection mechanism based on higher-order cumulants is introduced to detect lateral maneuver mutations and optimize the use of historical data.Simulation results show that the proposed method achieves accurate trajectory prediction during the glide phase and maintains high accuracy under maneuver mutations,significantly enhancing the prediction performance of both three-dimensional trajectories and ground tracks.展开更多
Drag anchor is one of the most commonly used anchorage foundation types. The prediction of embedded trajectory in the process of drag anchor installation is of great importance to the safety design of mooring system. ...Drag anchor is one of the most commonly used anchorage foundation types. The prediction of embedded trajectory in the process of drag anchor installation is of great importance to the safety design of mooring system. In this paper, the ultimate anchor holding capacity in the seabed soil is calculated through the established finite element model, and then the embedded motion trajectory is predicted applying the incremental calculation method. Firstly, the drag anchor initial embedded depth and inclination angle are assumed, which are regarded as the start embedded point. Secondly, in each incremental step, the incremental displacement of drag anchor is added along the parallel direction of anchor plate, so the displacement increment of drag anchor in the horizontal and vertical directions can be calculated. Thirdly, the finite element model of anchor is established considering the seabed soil and anchor interaction, and the ultimate drag anchor holding capacity at new position can be obtained. Fourthly, the angle between inverse catenary mooring line and horizontal plane at the attachment point at this increment step can be calculated through the inverse catenary equation. Finally, the incremental step is ended until the angle of drag anchor and seabed soil is zero as the ultimate embedded state condition, thus, the whole embedded trajectory of drag anchor is obtained. Meanwhile, the influences of initial parameter changes on the embedded trajectory are considered. Based on the proposed method, the prediction of drag anchor trajectory and the holding capacity of mooring position system can be provided.展开更多
With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intellig...With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intelligent SA(ISA).However,the existing AI-based SA approaches often rely on unimodal data and lack a comprehensive description and benchmark of the ISA tasks utilizing multi-modal data for real-time ATC environments.To address this gap,by analyzing the situation awareness procedure of the ATCOs,the ISA task is refined to the processing of the two primary elements,i.e.,spoken instructions and flight trajectories.Subsequently,the ISA is further formulated into Controlling Intent Understanding(CIU)and Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP)tasks.For the CIU task,an innovative automatic speech recognition and understanding framework is designed to extract the controlling intent from unstructured and continuous ATC communications.For the FTP task,the single-and multi-horizon FTP approaches are investigated to support the high-precision prediction of the situation evolution.A total of 32 unimodal/multi-modal advanced methods with extensive evaluation metrics are introduced to conduct the benchmarks on the real-world multi-modal ATC situation dataset.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-based techniques in enhancing ISA for the ATC environment.展开更多
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) trajectory prediction is an important research topic in the field of UAV air combat. In order to address the problem of single-feature extraction scale and scene adaptability in UAV air co...Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) trajectory prediction is an important research topic in the field of UAV air combat. In order to address the problem of single-feature extraction scale and scene adaptability in UAV air combat trajectory prediction algorithms, this paper proposes an innovative UAV trajectory prediction method QCNet-3D, which can predict the future trajectory of the target UAV and provide the corresponding possibility. Firstly, the UAV trajectory prediction is modeled based on the mixture of Laplace distributions, and the UAV's kinetic equations are employed to construct the UAV trajectory prediction dataset(UAVTP dataset), ensuring high reliability. Secondly, two improvement methods are proposed on the basis of QCNet: multi-scale Fourier mapping and three-dimensional adaptation. The ablation study shows that the improvement methods have reduced the minimum average displacement error, minimum final displacement error, and missing rate by 55.4%, 54.3%, and 68.1% respectively. Finally, QCNet-3D is proposed based on the two improvement methods, and the simulation experiment confirm the proposed algorithm's capability to predict both simple and complex UAV maneuvers, offering the possibility for each predicted trajectory under various prediction future steps and output modes.展开更多
1. Background Driven by ongoing economic expansion and low-altitude aviation development, the global air transportation industry has experienced significant growth in recent decades, resulting in increasing airspace c...1. Background Driven by ongoing economic expansion and low-altitude aviation development, the global air transportation industry has experienced significant growth in recent decades, resulting in increasing airspace complexity, and considerable challenges for Air Traffic Control(ATC). As the fundamental technique of the ATC system, Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP) forecasts future traffic dynamics to support critical applications(such as conflict detection), and also serves as a cornerstone for future Trajectory-based Operations(TBO).展开更多
Pedestrian trajectory prediction can significantly enhance the perception and decision-making capabilities of autonomous driving systems and intelligent surveillance systems based on camera sensors by predicting the s...Pedestrian trajectory prediction can significantly enhance the perception and decision-making capabilities of autonomous driving systems and intelligent surveillance systems based on camera sensors by predicting the states and behavior intentions of surrounding pedestrians.However,existing trajectory prediction methods remain failing to effectively model the diverse and complex interactions in the real world,including pedestrian-pedestrian interactions and pedestrian-environment interactions.Besides,these methods are not effective in capturing and characterizing the multimodal property of future trajectories.To address these challenges above,we propose to devise a handdesigned graph convolution and spatial cross attention to dynamically capture the diverse spatial interactions between pedestrians.To effectively explore the impact of scenarios on pedestrian trajectory,we build a pedestrian map,which can reflect the scene constraints and pedestrian motion preferences.Meanwhile,we construct a trajectory multimodality-aware module to capture the different potential mode implicit in diverse social behaviors for pedestrian future trajectory uncertainty.Finally,we compared the proposed method with trajectory prediction baselines on commonly used public pedestrian benchmarks,demonstrating the superior performance of our approach.展开更多
In task offloading,the movement of vehicles causes the switching of connected RSUs and servers,which may lead to task offloading failure or high service delay.In this paper,we analyze the impact of vehicle movements o...In task offloading,the movement of vehicles causes the switching of connected RSUs and servers,which may lead to task offloading failure or high service delay.In this paper,we analyze the impact of vehicle movements on task offloading and reveal that data preparation time for task execution can be minimized via forward-looking scheduling.Then,a Bi-LSTM-based model is proposed to predict the trajectories of vehicles.The service area is divided into several equal-sized grids.If the actual position of the vehicle and the predicted position by the model belong to the same grid,the prediction is considered correct,thereby reducing the difficulty of vehicle trajectory prediction.Moreover,we propose a scheduling strategy for delay optimization based on the vehicle trajectory prediction.Considering the inevitable prediction error,we take some edge servers around the predicted area as candidate execution servers and the data required for task execution are backed up to these candidate servers,thereby reducing the impact of prediction deviations on task offloading and converting the modest increase of resource overheads into delay reduction in task offloading.Simulation results show that,compared with other classical schemes,the proposed strategy has lower average task offloading delays.展开更多
Trajectory prediction is a critical task in autonomous driving systems.It enables vehicles to anticipate the future movements of surrounding traffic participants,which facilitates safe and human-like decision-making i...Trajectory prediction is a critical task in autonomous driving systems.It enables vehicles to anticipate the future movements of surrounding traffic participants,which facilitates safe and human-like decision-making in the planning and control layers.However,most existing approaches rely on end-to-end deep learning architectures that overlook the influence of driving style on trajectory prediction.These methods often lack explicit modeling of semantic driving behavior and effective interaction mechanisms,leading to potentially unrealistic predictions.To address these limitations,we propose the Driving Style Guided Trajectory Prediction framework(DSG-TP),which incorporates a probabilistic representation of driving style into trajectory prediction.Our approach enhances the model’s ability to interact with vehicle behavior characteristics in complex traffic scenarios,significantly improving prediction reliability in critical decision-making situations by incorporating the driving style recognition module.Experimental evaluations on the Argoverse 1 dataset demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.Through extensive ablation studies,we further validate the contribution of each module to overall performance.Notably,in decision-sensitive scenarios,DSG-TP more accurately captures vehicle behavior patterns and generates trajectory predictions that align with different driving styles,providing crucial support for safe decision-making in autonomous driving systems.展开更多
Pedestrian trajectory prediction is pivotal and challenging in applications such as autonomous driving,social robotics,and intelligent surveillance systems.Pedestrian trajectory is governed not only by individual inte...Pedestrian trajectory prediction is pivotal and challenging in applications such as autonomous driving,social robotics,and intelligent surveillance systems.Pedestrian trajectory is governed not only by individual intent but also by interactions with surrounding agents.These interactions are critical to trajectory prediction accuracy.While prior studies have employed Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs)and Graph Convolutional Networks(GCNs)to model such interactions,these methods fail to distinguish varying influence levels among neighboring pedestrians.To address this,we propose a novel model based on a bidirectional graph attention network and spatio-temporal graphs to capture dynamic interactions.Specifically,we construct temporal and spatial graphs encoding the sequential evolution and spatial proximity among pedestrians.These features are then fused and processed by the Bidirectional Graph Attention Network(Bi-GAT),which models the bidirectional interactions between the target pedestrian and its neighbors.The model computes node attention weights(i.e.,similarity scores)to differentially aggregate neighbor information,enabling fine-grained interaction representations.Extensive experiments conducted on two widely used pedestrian trajectory prediction benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing state-of-theartmethods regarding Average Displacement Error(ADE)and Final Displacement Error(FDE),highlighting its strong prediction accuracy and generalization capability.展开更多
The Global Positioning System(GPS)plays an indispensable role in the control of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV).However,the civilian GPS signals,transmitted over the air without any encryption,are vulnerable to spoofing ...The Global Positioning System(GPS)plays an indispensable role in the control of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV).However,the civilian GPS signals,transmitted over the air without any encryption,are vulnerable to spoofing attacks,which further guides the UAV on deviated positions or trajectories.To counter the GPS,,m spoofing on UAV system and to detect the position/trajectory anomaly in real time,a motion state vector based stack long short-term memory trajectory prediction scheme is firstly proposed,leveraging the temporal and spatial features of UAV kinematics.Based on the predicted results,an ensemble voting-based trajectory anomaly detection scheme is proposed to detect the position anomalies in real time with the information of motion state sequences.The proposed prediction-based trajectory anomaly detection scheme outperforms the existing offline detection schemes designed for fixed trajectories.Software In The Loop(SITL)based online prediction and online anomaly detection are demonstrated with random 3D flight trajectories.Results show that the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the prediction scheme can reach 0.996 and 3.467,respectively.The accuracy,recall,and F1-score of the proposed anomaly detection scheme can reach 0.984,0.988,and 0.983,respectively,which outperform deep ensemble learning,LSTM-based classifier,machine learning classifier and GA-XGBoost based schemes.Moreover,results show that compared with LSTM-based classifier,the average duration(from the moment starting an attack to the moment the attack being detected)and distance of the proposed scheme are reduced by 24.4%and 19.5%,respectively.展开更多
Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve ...Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve this problem. Firstly, the complex dynamics characteristics of ballistic missile in the boost phase are analyzed in detail. Secondly, combining the missile dynamics model with the target gravity turning model, a knowledge-driven target three-dimensional turning(T3) model is derived. Then, the BP neural network is used to train the boost phase trajectory database in typical scenarios to obtain a datadriven state parameter mapping(SPM) model. On this basis, an online trajectory prediction framework driven by data and knowledge is established. Based on the SPM model, the three-dimensional turning coefficients of the target are predicted by using the current state of the target, and the state of the target at the next moment is obtained by combining the T3 model. Finally, simulation verification is carried out under various conditions. The simulation results show that the DKTP algorithm combines the advantages of data-driven and knowledge-driven, improves the interpretability of the algorithm, reduces the uncertainty, which can achieve high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missile in the boost phase.展开更多
This study proposes an improved hybrid approach for traffic prediction of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs)to address the challenges posed by complex deep-sea conditions and obstacles.Traditional models often suffe...This study proposes an improved hybrid approach for traffic prediction of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs)to address the challenges posed by complex deep-sea conditions and obstacles.Traditional models often suffer from prediction lag and reduced accuracy due to inadequate integration of environmental factors.To overcome these limitations,we introduce a novel G-GRU multistep prediction network that combines an enhanced polynomial fitting algorithm with a gated recurrent unit(GRU)neural network.For sin-gle-step prediction,the improved polynomial fitting algorithm adaptively se-lects terms and selection points to enhance precision,whereas for multistep prediction,the GRU network,with its reduced parameter set and shorter training duration,effectively captures long-term dependencies.This method-ology demonstrates superior prediction accuracy and reduced lag under both raster and latitude–longitude maps.The experimental results show that the G-GRU network significantly outperforms the traditional GRU model in terms of metrics such as the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),providing robust sup-port for AUV short-term positioning and long-term planning,thus advancing marine resource utilization and safeguarding national maritime interests.展开更多
Hypersonic Glide Vehicles(HGVs)are advanced aircraft that can achieve extremely high speeds(generally over 5 Mach)and maneuverability within the Earth's atmosphere.HGV trajectory prediction is crucial for effectiv...Hypersonic Glide Vehicles(HGVs)are advanced aircraft that can achieve extremely high speeds(generally over 5 Mach)and maneuverability within the Earth's atmosphere.HGV trajectory prediction is crucial for effective defense planning and interception strategies.In recent years,HGV trajectory prediction methods based on deep learning have the great potential to significantly enhance prediction accuracy and efficiency.However,it's still challenging to strike a balance between improving prediction performance and reducing computation costs of the deep learning trajectory prediction models.To solve this problem,we propose a new deep learning framework(FECA-LSMN)for efficient HGV trajectory prediction.The model first uses a Frequency Enhanced Channel Attention(FECA)module to facilitate the fusion of different HGV trajectory features,and then subsequently employs a Light Sampling-oriented Multi-Layer Perceptron Network(LSMN)based on simple MLP-based structures to extract long/shortterm HGV trajectory features for accurate trajectory prediction.Also,we employ a new data normalization method called reversible instance normalization(RevIN)to enhance the prediction accuracy and training stability of the network.Compared to other popular trajectory prediction models based on LSTM,GRU and Transformer,our FECA-LSMN model achieves leading or comparable performance in terms of RMSE,MAE and MAPE metrics while demonstrating notably faster computation time.The ablation experiments show that the incorporation of the FECA module significantly improves the prediction performance of the network.The RevIN data normalization technique outperforms traditional min-max normalization as well.展开更多
Organic electrochemical transistor(OECT)devices demonstrate great promising potential for reservoir computing(RC)systems,but their lack of tunable dynamic characteristics limits their application in multi-temporal sca...Organic electrochemical transistor(OECT)devices demonstrate great promising potential for reservoir computing(RC)systems,but their lack of tunable dynamic characteristics limits their application in multi-temporal scale tasks.In this study,we report an OECT-based neuromorphic device with tunable relaxation time(τ)by introducing an additional vertical back-gate electrode into a planar structure.The dual-gate design enablesτreconfiguration from 93 to 541 ms.The tunable relaxation behaviors can be attributed to the combined effects of planar-gate induced electrochemical doping and back-gateinduced electrostatic coupling,as verified by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy analysis.Furthermore,we used theτ-tunable OECT devices as physical reservoirs in the RC system for intelligent driving trajectory prediction,achieving a significant improvement in prediction accuracy from below 69%to 99%.The results demonstrate that theτ-tunable OECT shows a promising candidate for multi-temporal scale neuromorphic computing applications.展开更多
The interception problem of Hypersonic Gliding Vehicles(HGVs)has been an important aspect of missile defense systems.In order to provide interceptors with accurate information of target trajectory,a model based on an ...The interception problem of Hypersonic Gliding Vehicles(HGVs)has been an important aspect of missile defense systems.In order to provide interceptors with accurate information of target trajectory,a model based on an improved Long Short-Time Memory(LSTM)network for trajectory prediction pipeline is proposed for the interception of a skip gliding hypersonic target.Firstly,for trajectory prediction required by intercepting guidance laws,the altitude,velocity and velocity direction of the target are formulated in the form of analytic functions,consisting of linear decay terms and amplitude decay sinusoidal terms.Then,the dynamic characteristics of the model parameters are analyzed,and the target trajectory prediction pipeline is proposed with the prediction error considered.Finally,an improved LSTM network is designed to estimate parameters in a dynamically-updated manner,and estimation results are used for the calculation of the final trajectory prediction pipeline.The proposed prediction algorithm provides information on the velocity vector for midcourse guidance with the effect of prediction errors on interception taken into account.Simulation is conducted and the results show the high accuracy of the algorithm in HGVs’trajectory prediction which is conducive to increasing the interception success rate.展开更多
Aiming at the problem of gliding near space hypersonic vehicle(NSHV)trajectory prediction,a trajectory prediction method based on aerodynamic acceleration empirical mode decomposition(EMD)is proposed.The method analyz...Aiming at the problem of gliding near space hypersonic vehicle(NSHV)trajectory prediction,a trajectory prediction method based on aerodynamic acceleration empirical mode decomposition(EMD)is proposed.The method analyzes the motion characteristics of the skipping gliding NSHV and verifies that the aerodynamic acceleration of the target has a relatively stable rule.On this basis,EMD is used to extract the trend of aerodynamic acceleration into multiple sub-items,and aggregate sub-items with similar attributes.Then,a prior basis function is set according to the aerodynamic acceleration stability rule,and the aggregated data are fitted by the basis function to predict its future state.After that,the prediction data of the aerodynamic acceleration are used to drive the system to predict the target trajectory.Finally,experiments verify the effectiveness of the method.In addition,the distribution of prediction errors in space is discussed,and the reasons are analyzed.展开更多
Target maneuver trajectory prediction plays an important role in air combat situation awareness and threat assessment.To solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of the traditional prediction method and model,a ta...Target maneuver trajectory prediction plays an important role in air combat situation awareness and threat assessment.To solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of the traditional prediction method and model,a target maneuver trajectory prediction model based on phase space reconstruction-radial basis function(PSR-RBF)neural network is established by combining the characteristics of trajectory with time continuity.In order to further improve the prediction performance of the model,the rival penalized competitive learning(RPCL)algorithm is introduced to determine the structure of RBF,the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)and the hybrid algorithm of the improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO)algorithm and the k-means are introduced to optimize the parameter of RBF,and a PSR-RBF neural network is constructed.An independent method of 3D coordinates of the target maneuver trajectory is proposed,and the target manuver trajectory sample data is constructed by using the training data selected in the air combat maneuver instrument(ACMI),and the maneuver trajectory prediction model based on the PSR-RBF neural network is established.In order to verify the precision and real-time performance of the trajectory prediction model,the simulation experiment of target maneuver trajectory is performed.The results show that the prediction performance of the independent method is better,and the accuracy of the PSR-RBF prediction model proposed is better.The prediction confirms the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method and model.展开更多
Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surround...Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.展开更多
In mixed and dynamic traffic environments,accurate long-term trajectory forecasting of surrounding vehicles is one of the indispensable preconditions for autonomous vehicles to accomplish reasonable behavioral decisio...In mixed and dynamic traffic environments,accurate long-term trajectory forecasting of surrounding vehicles is one of the indispensable preconditions for autonomous vehicles to accomplish reasonable behavioral decisions and guarantee driving safety.In this paper,we propose an integrated probabilistic architecture for long-term vehicle trajectory prediction,which consists of a driving inference model(DIM)and a trajectory prediction model(TPM).The DIM is designed and employed to accurately infer the potential driving intention based on a dynamic Bayesian network.The proposed DIM incorporates the basic traffic rules and multivariate vehicle motion information.To further improve the prediction accuracy and realize uncertainty estimation,we develop a Gaussian process-based TPM,considering both the short-term prediction results of the vehicle model and the driving motion characteristics.Afterward,the effectiveness of our novel approach is demonstrated by conducting experiments on a public naturalistic driving dataset under lane-changing scenarios.The superior performance on the task of long-term trajectory prediction is presented and verified by comparing with other advanced methods.展开更多
The cooperation between an autonomous vehicle and a nearby vehicle is critical to ensure driving safety in the laneexchanging scenario.The nearby vehicle trajectory needs to be predicted,from which the autonomous vehi...The cooperation between an autonomous vehicle and a nearby vehicle is critical to ensure driving safety in the laneexchanging scenario.The nearby vehicle trajectory needs to be predicted,from which the autonomous vehicle is controlled to prevent possible collisions.This paper proposes a lane-exchanging driving strategy for the autonomous vehicle to cooperate with the nearby vehicle by integrating vehicle trajectory prediction and motion control.A trajectory prediction method is developed to anticipate the nearby vehicle trajectory.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM),together with the vehicle kinematic model,are synthesized to predict the nearby vehicle trajectory.A potential-feldbased model predictive control(MPC)approach is utilized by the autonomous vehicle to conduct the lane-exchanging maneuver.The potential feld of the nearby vehicle is considered in the controller design for collision avoidance.On-road driving data verifcation shows that the nearby vehicle trajectory can be predicted by the proposed method.CarSim®simulations validate that the autonomous vehicle can perform the lane-exchanging maneuver and avoid the nearby vehicle using the proposed driving strategy.The autonomous vehicle can thus safely perform the laneexchanging maneuver and avoid the nearby vehicle.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12302056)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(GZC20233445)。
文摘Re-entry gliding vehicles exhibit high maneuverability,making trajectory prediction a key factor in the effectiveness of defense systems.To overcome the limited fitting accuracy of existing methods and their poor adaptability to maneuver mode mutations,a trajectory prediction method is proposed that integrates online maneuver mode identification with dynamic modeling.Characteristic parameters are extracted from tracking data for parameterized modeling,enabling real-time identification of maneuver modes.In addition,a maneuver detection mechanism based on higher-order cumulants is introduced to detect lateral maneuver mutations and optimize the use of historical data.Simulation results show that the proposed method achieves accurate trajectory prediction during the glide phase and maintains high accuracy under maneuver mutations,significantly enhancing the prediction performance of both three-dimensional trajectories and ground tracks.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51890915,51490672,and51761135011)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Drag anchor is one of the most commonly used anchorage foundation types. The prediction of embedded trajectory in the process of drag anchor installation is of great importance to the safety design of mooring system. In this paper, the ultimate anchor holding capacity in the seabed soil is calculated through the established finite element model, and then the embedded motion trajectory is predicted applying the incremental calculation method. Firstly, the drag anchor initial embedded depth and inclination angle are assumed, which are regarded as the start embedded point. Secondly, in each incremental step, the incremental displacement of drag anchor is added along the parallel direction of anchor plate, so the displacement increment of drag anchor in the horizontal and vertical directions can be calculated. Thirdly, the finite element model of anchor is established considering the seabed soil and anchor interaction, and the ultimate drag anchor holding capacity at new position can be obtained. Fourthly, the angle between inverse catenary mooring line and horizontal plane at the attachment point at this increment step can be calculated through the inverse catenary equation. Finally, the incremental step is ended until the angle of drag anchor and seabed soil is zero as the ultimate embedded state condition, thus, the whole embedded trajectory of drag anchor is obtained. Meanwhile, the influences of initial parameter changes on the embedded trajectory are considered. Based on the proposed method, the prediction of drag anchor trajectory and the holding capacity of mooring position system can be provided.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62371323,62401380,U2433217,U2333209,and U20A20161)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province,China(Nos.2025ZNSFSC1476)+2 种基金Sichuan Science and Technology Program,China(Nos.2024YFG0010 and 2024ZDZX0046)the Institutional Research Fund from Sichuan University(Nos.2024SCUQJTX030)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Flight Techniques and Flight Safety,CAAC(Nos.GY2024-01A).
文摘With the advent of the next-generation Air Traffic Control(ATC)system,there is growing interest in using Artificial Intelligence(AI)techniques to enhance Situation Awareness(SA)for ATC Controllers(ATCOs),i.e.,Intelligent SA(ISA).However,the existing AI-based SA approaches often rely on unimodal data and lack a comprehensive description and benchmark of the ISA tasks utilizing multi-modal data for real-time ATC environments.To address this gap,by analyzing the situation awareness procedure of the ATCOs,the ISA task is refined to the processing of the two primary elements,i.e.,spoken instructions and flight trajectories.Subsequently,the ISA is further formulated into Controlling Intent Understanding(CIU)and Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP)tasks.For the CIU task,an innovative automatic speech recognition and understanding framework is designed to extract the controlling intent from unstructured and continuous ATC communications.For the FTP task,the single-and multi-horizon FTP approaches are investigated to support the high-precision prediction of the situation evolution.A total of 32 unimodal/multi-modal advanced methods with extensive evaluation metrics are introduced to conduct the benchmarks on the real-world multi-modal ATC situation dataset.Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of AI-based techniques in enhancing ISA for the ATC environment.
基金National Natural Science Foundation (NSF) of China (No.61976014)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (2022Z071051001)。
文摘Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV) trajectory prediction is an important research topic in the field of UAV air combat. In order to address the problem of single-feature extraction scale and scene adaptability in UAV air combat trajectory prediction algorithms, this paper proposes an innovative UAV trajectory prediction method QCNet-3D, which can predict the future trajectory of the target UAV and provide the corresponding possibility. Firstly, the UAV trajectory prediction is modeled based on the mixture of Laplace distributions, and the UAV's kinetic equations are employed to construct the UAV trajectory prediction dataset(UAVTP dataset), ensuring high reliability. Secondly, two improvement methods are proposed on the basis of QCNet: multi-scale Fourier mapping and three-dimensional adaptation. The ablation study shows that the improvement methods have reduced the minimum average displacement error, minimum final displacement error, and missing rate by 55.4%, 54.3%, and 68.1% respectively. Finally, QCNet-3D is proposed based on the two improvement methods, and the simulation experiment confirm the proposed algorithm's capability to predict both simple and complex UAV maneuvers, offering the possibility for each predicted trajectory under various prediction future steps and output modes.
文摘1. Background Driven by ongoing economic expansion and low-altitude aviation development, the global air transportation industry has experienced significant growth in recent decades, resulting in increasing airspace complexity, and considerable challenges for Air Traffic Control(ATC). As the fundamental technique of the ATC system, Flight Trajectory Prediction(FTP) forecasts future traffic dynamics to support critical applications(such as conflict detection), and also serves as a cornerstone for future Trajectory-based Operations(TBO).
文摘Pedestrian trajectory prediction can significantly enhance the perception and decision-making capabilities of autonomous driving systems and intelligent surveillance systems based on camera sensors by predicting the states and behavior intentions of surrounding pedestrians.However,existing trajectory prediction methods remain failing to effectively model the diverse and complex interactions in the real world,including pedestrian-pedestrian interactions and pedestrian-environment interactions.Besides,these methods are not effective in capturing and characterizing the multimodal property of future trajectories.To address these challenges above,we propose to devise a handdesigned graph convolution and spatial cross attention to dynamically capture the diverse spatial interactions between pedestrians.To effectively explore the impact of scenarios on pedestrian trajectory,we build a pedestrian map,which can reflect the scene constraints and pedestrian motion preferences.Meanwhile,we construct a trajectory multimodality-aware module to capture the different potential mode implicit in diverse social behaviors for pedestrian future trajectory uncertainty.Finally,we compared the proposed method with trajectory prediction baselines on commonly used public pedestrian benchmarks,demonstrating the superior performance of our approach.
基金supported in part by the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62172450)the Key R&D Plan of Hunan Province(Grant No.2022GK2008)the Nature Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2020JJ4756)。
文摘In task offloading,the movement of vehicles causes the switching of connected RSUs and servers,which may lead to task offloading failure or high service delay.In this paper,we analyze the impact of vehicle movements on task offloading and reveal that data preparation time for task execution can be minimized via forward-looking scheduling.Then,a Bi-LSTM-based model is proposed to predict the trajectories of vehicles.The service area is divided into several equal-sized grids.If the actual position of the vehicle and the predicted position by the model belong to the same grid,the prediction is considered correct,thereby reducing the difficulty of vehicle trajectory prediction.Moreover,we propose a scheduling strategy for delay optimization based on the vehicle trajectory prediction.Considering the inevitable prediction error,we take some edge servers around the predicted area as candidate execution servers and the data required for task execution are backed up to these candidate servers,thereby reducing the impact of prediction deviations on task offloading and converting the modest increase of resource overheads into delay reduction in task offloading.Simulation results show that,compared with other classical schemes,the proposed strategy has lower average task offloading delays.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grant No.52267003.
文摘Trajectory prediction is a critical task in autonomous driving systems.It enables vehicles to anticipate the future movements of surrounding traffic participants,which facilitates safe and human-like decision-making in the planning and control layers.However,most existing approaches rely on end-to-end deep learning architectures that overlook the influence of driving style on trajectory prediction.These methods often lack explicit modeling of semantic driving behavior and effective interaction mechanisms,leading to potentially unrealistic predictions.To address these limitations,we propose the Driving Style Guided Trajectory Prediction framework(DSG-TP),which incorporates a probabilistic representation of driving style into trajectory prediction.Our approach enhances the model’s ability to interact with vehicle behavior characteristics in complex traffic scenarios,significantly improving prediction reliability in critical decision-making situations by incorporating the driving style recognition module.Experimental evaluations on the Argoverse 1 dataset demonstrate that our method outperforms existing approaches in both prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.Through extensive ablation studies,we further validate the contribution of each module to overall performance.Notably,in decision-sensitive scenarios,DSG-TP more accurately captures vehicle behavior patterns and generates trajectory predictions that align with different driving styles,providing crucial support for safe decision-making in autonomous driving systems.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,grant number 624010funded by the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province,grant number 2408085QF202+1 种基金funded by the Anhui Future Technology Research Institute Industry Guidance Fund Project,grant number 2023cyyd04funded by the Project of Research of Anhui Polytechnic University,grant number Xjky2022150.
文摘Pedestrian trajectory prediction is pivotal and challenging in applications such as autonomous driving,social robotics,and intelligent surveillance systems.Pedestrian trajectory is governed not only by individual intent but also by interactions with surrounding agents.These interactions are critical to trajectory prediction accuracy.While prior studies have employed Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs)and Graph Convolutional Networks(GCNs)to model such interactions,these methods fail to distinguish varying influence levels among neighboring pedestrians.To address this,we propose a novel model based on a bidirectional graph attention network and spatio-temporal graphs to capture dynamic interactions.Specifically,we construct temporal and spatial graphs encoding the sequential evolution and spatial proximity among pedestrians.These features are then fused and processed by the Bidirectional Graph Attention Network(Bi-GAT),which models the bidirectional interactions between the target pedestrian and its neighbors.The model computes node attention weights(i.e.,similarity scores)to differentially aggregate neighbor information,enabling fine-grained interaction representations.Extensive experiments conducted on two widely used pedestrian trajectory prediction benchmark datasets demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing state-of-theartmethods regarding Average Displacement Error(ADE)and Final Displacement Error(FDE),highlighting its strong prediction accuracy and generalization capability.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62271076)in part by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.2242022k60006).
文摘The Global Positioning System(GPS)plays an indispensable role in the control of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV).However,the civilian GPS signals,transmitted over the air without any encryption,are vulnerable to spoofing attacks,which further guides the UAV on deviated positions or trajectories.To counter the GPS,,m spoofing on UAV system and to detect the position/trajectory anomaly in real time,a motion state vector based stack long short-term memory trajectory prediction scheme is firstly proposed,leveraging the temporal and spatial features of UAV kinematics.Based on the predicted results,an ensemble voting-based trajectory anomaly detection scheme is proposed to detect the position anomalies in real time with the information of motion state sequences.The proposed prediction-based trajectory anomaly detection scheme outperforms the existing offline detection schemes designed for fixed trajectories.Software In The Loop(SITL)based online prediction and online anomaly detection are demonstrated with random 3D flight trajectories.Results show that the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)of the prediction scheme can reach 0.996 and 3.467,respectively.The accuracy,recall,and F1-score of the proposed anomaly detection scheme can reach 0.984,0.988,and 0.983,respectively,which outperform deep ensemble learning,LSTM-based classifier,machine learning classifier and GA-XGBoost based schemes.Moreover,results show that compared with LSTM-based classifier,the average duration(from the moment starting an attack to the moment the attack being detected)and distance of the proposed scheme are reduced by 24.4%and 19.5%,respectively.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No. 12072090 and No.12302056) to provide fund for conducting experiments。
文摘Recently, high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missiles in the boost phase has become a research hotspot. This paper proposes a trajectory prediction algorithm driven by data and knowledge(DKTP) to solve this problem. Firstly, the complex dynamics characteristics of ballistic missile in the boost phase are analyzed in detail. Secondly, combining the missile dynamics model with the target gravity turning model, a knowledge-driven target three-dimensional turning(T3) model is derived. Then, the BP neural network is used to train the boost phase trajectory database in typical scenarios to obtain a datadriven state parameter mapping(SPM) model. On this basis, an online trajectory prediction framework driven by data and knowledge is established. Based on the SPM model, the three-dimensional turning coefficients of the target are predicted by using the current state of the target, and the state of the target at the next moment is obtained by combining the T3 model. Finally, simulation verification is carried out under various conditions. The simulation results show that the DKTP algorithm combines the advantages of data-driven and knowledge-driven, improves the interpretability of the algorithm, reduces the uncertainty, which can achieve high-precision trajectory prediction of ballistic missile in the boost phase.
文摘This study proposes an improved hybrid approach for traffic prediction of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs)to address the challenges posed by complex deep-sea conditions and obstacles.Traditional models often suffer from prediction lag and reduced accuracy due to inadequate integration of environmental factors.To overcome these limitations,we introduce a novel G-GRU multistep prediction network that combines an enhanced polynomial fitting algorithm with a gated recurrent unit(GRU)neural network.For sin-gle-step prediction,the improved polynomial fitting algorithm adaptively se-lects terms and selection points to enhance precision,whereas for multistep prediction,the GRU network,with its reduced parameter set and shorter training duration,effectively captures long-term dependencies.This method-ology demonstrates superior prediction accuracy and reduced lag under both raster and latitude–longitude maps.The experimental results show that the G-GRU network significantly outperforms the traditional GRU model in terms of metrics such as the root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),providing robust sup-port for AUV short-term positioning and long-term planning,thus advancing marine resource utilization and safeguarding national maritime interests.
文摘Hypersonic Glide Vehicles(HGVs)are advanced aircraft that can achieve extremely high speeds(generally over 5 Mach)and maneuverability within the Earth's atmosphere.HGV trajectory prediction is crucial for effective defense planning and interception strategies.In recent years,HGV trajectory prediction methods based on deep learning have the great potential to significantly enhance prediction accuracy and efficiency.However,it's still challenging to strike a balance between improving prediction performance and reducing computation costs of the deep learning trajectory prediction models.To solve this problem,we propose a new deep learning framework(FECA-LSMN)for efficient HGV trajectory prediction.The model first uses a Frequency Enhanced Channel Attention(FECA)module to facilitate the fusion of different HGV trajectory features,and then subsequently employs a Light Sampling-oriented Multi-Layer Perceptron Network(LSMN)based on simple MLP-based structures to extract long/shortterm HGV trajectory features for accurate trajectory prediction.Also,we employ a new data normalization method called reversible instance normalization(RevIN)to enhance the prediction accuracy and training stability of the network.Compared to other popular trajectory prediction models based on LSTM,GRU and Transformer,our FECA-LSMN model achieves leading or comparable performance in terms of RMSE,MAE and MAPE metrics while demonstrating notably faster computation time.The ablation experiments show that the incorporation of the FECA module significantly improves the prediction performance of the network.The RevIN data normalization technique outperforms traditional min-max normalization as well.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant 2022YFB3608300in part by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grants 62404050,U2341218,62574056,62204052。
文摘Organic electrochemical transistor(OECT)devices demonstrate great promising potential for reservoir computing(RC)systems,but their lack of tunable dynamic characteristics limits their application in multi-temporal scale tasks.In this study,we report an OECT-based neuromorphic device with tunable relaxation time(τ)by introducing an additional vertical back-gate electrode into a planar structure.The dual-gate design enablesτreconfiguration from 93 to 541 ms.The tunable relaxation behaviors can be attributed to the combined effects of planar-gate induced electrochemical doping and back-gateinduced electrostatic coupling,as verified by electrochemical impedance spectroscopy analysis.Furthermore,we used theτ-tunable OECT devices as physical reservoirs in the RC system for intelligent driving trajectory prediction,achieving a significant improvement in prediction accuracy from below 69%to 99%.The results demonstrate that theτ-tunable OECT shows a promising candidate for multi-temporal scale neuromorphic computing applications.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61427809).
文摘The interception problem of Hypersonic Gliding Vehicles(HGVs)has been an important aspect of missile defense systems.In order to provide interceptors with accurate information of target trajectory,a model based on an improved Long Short-Time Memory(LSTM)network for trajectory prediction pipeline is proposed for the interception of a skip gliding hypersonic target.Firstly,for trajectory prediction required by intercepting guidance laws,the altitude,velocity and velocity direction of the target are formulated in the form of analytic functions,consisting of linear decay terms and amplitude decay sinusoidal terms.Then,the dynamic characteristics of the model parameters are analyzed,and the target trajectory prediction pipeline is proposed with the prediction error considered.Finally,an improved LSTM network is designed to estimate parameters in a dynamically-updated manner,and estimation results are used for the calculation of the final trajectory prediction pipeline.The proposed prediction algorithm provides information on the velocity vector for midcourse guidance with the effect of prediction errors on interception taken into account.Simulation is conducted and the results show the high accuracy of the algorithm in HGVs’trajectory prediction which is conducive to increasing the interception success rate.
基金supported by the National High-Tech R&D Program of China(2015AA70560452015AA8017032P)the Postgraduate Funding Project(JW2018A039)。
文摘Aiming at the problem of gliding near space hypersonic vehicle(NSHV)trajectory prediction,a trajectory prediction method based on aerodynamic acceleration empirical mode decomposition(EMD)is proposed.The method analyzes the motion characteristics of the skipping gliding NSHV and verifies that the aerodynamic acceleration of the target has a relatively stable rule.On this basis,EMD is used to extract the trend of aerodynamic acceleration into multiple sub-items,and aggregate sub-items with similar attributes.Then,a prior basis function is set according to the aerodynamic acceleration stability rule,and the aggregated data are fitted by the basis function to predict its future state.After that,the prediction data of the aerodynamic acceleration are used to drive the system to predict the target trajectory.Finally,experiments verify the effectiveness of the method.In addition,the distribution of prediction errors in space is discussed,and the reasons are analyzed.
文摘Target maneuver trajectory prediction plays an important role in air combat situation awareness and threat assessment.To solve the problem of low prediction accuracy of the traditional prediction method and model,a target maneuver trajectory prediction model based on phase space reconstruction-radial basis function(PSR-RBF)neural network is established by combining the characteristics of trajectory with time continuity.In order to further improve the prediction performance of the model,the rival penalized competitive learning(RPCL)algorithm is introduced to determine the structure of RBF,the Levenberg-Marquardt(LM)and the hybrid algorithm of the improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO)algorithm and the k-means are introduced to optimize the parameter of RBF,and a PSR-RBF neural network is constructed.An independent method of 3D coordinates of the target maneuver trajectory is proposed,and the target manuver trajectory sample data is constructed by using the training data selected in the air combat maneuver instrument(ACMI),and the maneuver trajectory prediction model based on the PSR-RBF neural network is established.In order to verify the precision and real-time performance of the trajectory prediction model,the simulation experiment of target maneuver trajectory is performed.The results show that the prediction performance of the independent method is better,and the accuracy of the PSR-RBF prediction model proposed is better.The prediction confirms the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method and model.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018AAA0101005,2018AAA0102404)the Program of the Huawei Technologies Co.Ltd.(FA2018111061SOW12)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61773054)the Youth Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Complex Systems Management and Control(20190213)。
文摘Human trajectory prediction is essential and promising in many related applications. This is challenging due to the uncertainty of human behaviors, which can be influenced not only by himself, but also by the surrounding environment. Recent works based on long-short term memory(LSTM) models have brought tremendous improvements on the task of trajectory prediction. However, most of them focus on the spatial influence of humans but ignore the temporal influence. In this paper, we propose a novel spatial-temporal attention(ST-Attention) model,which studies spatial and temporal affinities jointly. Specifically,we introduce an attention mechanism to extract temporal affinity,learning the importance for historical trajectory information at different time instants. To explore spatial affinity, a deep neural network is employed to measure different importance of the neighbors. Experimental results show that our method achieves competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art methods on publicly available datasets.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51975310 and 52002209).
文摘In mixed and dynamic traffic environments,accurate long-term trajectory forecasting of surrounding vehicles is one of the indispensable preconditions for autonomous vehicles to accomplish reasonable behavioral decisions and guarantee driving safety.In this paper,we propose an integrated probabilistic architecture for long-term vehicle trajectory prediction,which consists of a driving inference model(DIM)and a trajectory prediction model(TPM).The DIM is designed and employed to accurately infer the potential driving intention based on a dynamic Bayesian network.The proposed DIM incorporates the basic traffic rules and multivariate vehicle motion information.To further improve the prediction accuracy and realize uncertainty estimation,we develop a Gaussian process-based TPM,considering both the short-term prediction results of the vehicle model and the driving motion characteristics.Afterward,the effectiveness of our novel approach is demonstrated by conducting experiments on a public naturalistic driving dataset under lane-changing scenarios.The superior performance on the task of long-term trajectory prediction is presented and verified by comparing with other advanced methods.
基金Supported by Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grand No.52102469)Science and Technology Major Project of Guangxi(Grant Nos.AB21196029 and AA18242033)State Key Laboratory of Automotive Safety and Energy(Grant No.KF2014).
文摘The cooperation between an autonomous vehicle and a nearby vehicle is critical to ensure driving safety in the laneexchanging scenario.The nearby vehicle trajectory needs to be predicted,from which the autonomous vehicle is controlled to prevent possible collisions.This paper proposes a lane-exchanging driving strategy for the autonomous vehicle to cooperate with the nearby vehicle by integrating vehicle trajectory prediction and motion control.A trajectory prediction method is developed to anticipate the nearby vehicle trajectory.The Gaussian mixture model(GMM),together with the vehicle kinematic model,are synthesized to predict the nearby vehicle trajectory.A potential-feldbased model predictive control(MPC)approach is utilized by the autonomous vehicle to conduct the lane-exchanging maneuver.The potential feld of the nearby vehicle is considered in the controller design for collision avoidance.On-road driving data verifcation shows that the nearby vehicle trajectory can be predicted by the proposed method.CarSim®simulations validate that the autonomous vehicle can perform the lane-exchanging maneuver and avoid the nearby vehicle using the proposed driving strategy.The autonomous vehicle can thus safely perform the laneexchanging maneuver and avoid the nearby vehicle.
