A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncer...A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.展开更多
The Yanchang Formation Chang 7 oil-bearing layer of the Ordos Basin is important in China for producing shale oil.The present-day in situ stress state is of practical implications for the exploration and development o...The Yanchang Formation Chang 7 oil-bearing layer of the Ordos Basin is important in China for producing shale oil.The present-day in situ stress state is of practical implications for the exploration and development of shale oil;however,few studies are focused on stress distributions within the Chang 7 reservoir.In this study,the present-day in situ stress distribution within the Chang 7 reservoir was predicted using the combined spring model based on well logs and measured stress data.The results indicate that stress magnitudes increase with burial depth within the Chang 7 reservoir.Overall,the horizontal maximum principal stress(SHmax),horizontal minimum principal stress(Shmin) and vertical stress(Sv) follow the relationship of Sv≥SHmax>Shmin,indicating a dominant normal faulting stress regime within the Chang 7 reservoir of Ordos Basin.Laterally,high stress values are mainly distributed in the northwestern parts of the studied region,while low stress values are found in the southeastern parts.Factors influencing stress distributions are also analyzed.Stress magnitudes within the Chang 7 reservoir show a positive linear relationship with burial depth.A larger value of Young's modulus results in higher stress magnitudes,and the differential horizontal stress becomes higher when the rock Young's modulus grows larger.展开更多
Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in mo...Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in more attention to green manure.Human intervention and policy-oriented behaviors likely have large impacts on promoting green manure planting.However,little information is available regarding on where,at what rates,and in which ways（i.e.,intercropping green manure in orchards or rotating green manure in cropland） to develop green manure and what benefits could be gained by incorporating green manure in fields at the county scale.This paper presents the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent（CLUE-S） model,which is specifically developed for the simulation of land use changes originally,to predict spatial distribution of green manure in cropland and orchards in 2020 in Pinggu District located in Beijing,China.Four types of land use for planting or not planting green manure were classified and the future land use dynamics（mainly croplands and orchards） were considered in the prediction.Two scenarios were used to predict the spatial distribution of green manure based on data from 2011：The promotion of green manure planting in orchards（scenario 1） and the promotion of simultaneous green manure planting in orchards and croplands（scenario 2）.The predictions were generally accurate based on the receiver operating characteristic（ROC） and Kappa indices,which validated the effectiveness of the CLUE-S model in the prediction.In addition,the spatial distribution of the green manure was acquired,which indicated that green manure mainly located in the orchards of the middle and southern regions of Dahuashan,the western and southern regions of Wangxinzhuang,the middle region of Shandongzhuang,the eastern region of Pinggu and the middle region of Xiagezhuang under scenario 1.Green manure planting under scenario 2 occurred in orchards in the middle region of Wangxinzhuang,and croplands in most regions of Daxingzhuang,southern Pinggu,northern Xiagezhuang and most of Mafang.The spatially explicit results allowed for the assessment of the benefits of these changes based on different economic and ecological indicators.The economic and ecological gains of scenarios 1 and 2 were 175691 900 and143000 300 CNY,respectively,which indicated that the first scenario was more beneficial for promoting the same area of green manure.These results can facilitate policies of promoting green manure and guide the extensive use of green manure in local agricultural production in suitable ways.展开更多
[ Objective] The research aimed to study distribution prediction of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China under climatic change background. [ Method] By using the maximum entropy model and many kinds of ...[ Objective] The research aimed to study distribution prediction of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China under climatic change background. [ Method] By using the maximum entropy model and many kinds of climate change scenarios, we predicted current and future distribution pattems of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China and its change process. [ Result ] At present, highly suitable growth area of E. ulmoides mainly distributed in Sichuan, Shaanxi and Chongqing, Under climate change background, total suitable growth areas in future three decades all drastically reduced when compared with that at present. It was noteworthy that moderately and highly suitable growth areas of wild E. ulmoides all disappeared, and junction between Shaanxi and Gansu and Taibai Mountain would be stable suitable growth area of wild E. ulmoides. [ Condusioa] The research could provide useful reference data for investigation, protection and sustainable development of the wild E. ulmoides resources.展开更多
The moisture content of dead forest fuel is an important indicator of risk levels of forest fires and prediction of fire spread. Moisture distribution is important to determine wild fire rating. However, it is often d...The moisture content of dead forest fuel is an important indicator of risk levels of forest fires and prediction of fire spread. Moisture distribution is important to determine wild fire rating. However, it is often difficult to predict moisture distribution because of a complex terrain, changeable environments and low cover of commercial communication signals inside the forest. This study proposes a moisture content prediction system composed of environmental data collected using a long range radio frequency band 433 MHz wireless sensor network and data processing for moisture prediction based on a BP (back-propagation) neural network. In the fall of 2019, twenty nodes for the collection of environmental data were placed in four forest stands of Maoershan National Forest for a month;7440 sets of data including temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pressure were obtained. Half the data were used as a training set, the other as a testing set for a BP neural network. The results show that the average absolute error between the predicted value and the real value of moisture content of fuels of Larix gmelini, Betula platyphylla, Juglans mandshurica, and Quercus mongolica stands was 0.94%, 0.21%, 0.86%, 0.97%, respectively. The prediction accuracy was relatively high. The proposed distributed moisture content prediction method has the advantages of wide coverage and good real-time performance;at the same time, it is not limited by commercial signals and so it is especially suitable for forest fire prediction in remote mountainous areas.展开更多
Based on Maxent niche model and combined with ArcGIS,the suitable area range for Quadrastichus erythrinae Kim in China was predicted in the paper.The results showed that high suitable area for Q. erythrinae in China i...Based on Maxent niche model and combined with ArcGIS,the suitable area range for Quadrastichus erythrinae Kim in China was predicted in the paper.The results showed that high suitable area for Q. erythrinae in China included most northeast coastal areas of Hainan Island,partial southern coastal area of Guangdong Province,partial northwestern coastal area and partial southeast coastal area of Taiwan Island; moderate suitable area included partial area of Hainan,some contiguous areas of Guangxi and Guangdong,most areas of Guangdong,partial area of Fujian and Taiwan; low suitable area included partial area from northwestern coast to inland of Hainan Island,west coastal area of Taiwan Island,most area in Guangxi,partial areas in Guangdong,Fujian and Yunnan.展开更多
DDF(dry dipterocarp forest)is importantly deciduous forest type in Thailand since it consists of important tree species for timber products and non-timber products.So,people would like to come to use these products fo...DDF(dry dipterocarp forest)is importantly deciduous forest type in Thailand since it consists of important tree species for timber products and non-timber products.So,people would like to come to use these products for daily uses in this forest type.The main aim of this study is to evaluate significant biophysical factors for DDF distribution using factor analysis and to model DDF distribution using ENFA(ecological niche factor analysis).In this study,13 watersheds of Ping Basin in northern Thailand were selected as the study site based on availability of forest inventory data in 2007 from DNP(Department of National Parks,Wildlife and Plant Conservation).Basic biophysical data for data analysis included forest inventory data(179 DDF plots),10 climatic data,three topographic data,and one soil data.For identification and evaluation of biophysical factors for DDF distribution using factor analysis,the first three factors,namely DDF-1,DDF-2 and DDF-3,had been extracted with 95.35%of total variance.These three components were used to predict DDF distribution based on HS(habitat suitability)with ENFA.In practice,the results were validated with AVI(absolute validation index)and CVI(contrast validation index)with validated forest inventory dataset.This evaluation shows that DDF-2 model is the best HS data consisting of four physical factors(mean annually temperature,mean monthly maximum temperature,mean monthly minimum temperature,and elevation),which is able to effectively used for habitat suitability for DDF distribution prediction.It was found that habitat suitability for DDF distribution can be classified into four classes including high suitable habitat,moderate suitable habitat,low suitable habitat,and unsuitable habitat.As a result,DDF distributions with high suitable habitat are highly related with DDF forest inventory plots of DNP.Thus,the obtained output can be further used for DDF rehabilitation according to climate and topographic factors.展开更多
The distributed-power electric multiple units(EMUs)are widely used in high-speed railway.Due to the structural characteristic of mutual-coupled power units in EMUs,each power unit is set as an agent.Combining with the...The distributed-power electric multiple units(EMUs)are widely used in high-speed railway.Due to the structural characteristic of mutual-coupled power units in EMUs,each power unit is set as an agent.Combining with the traction/brake characteristic curve and running data of EMUs,a subtractive clustering method and pattern classification algorithm are adopted to set up a multi-model set for every agent.Then,the multi-agent model is established according to the multi-agent network topology and mutual-coupled constraint relations.Finally,we adopt a smooth start switching control strategy and a multi-agent distributed coordination control algorithm to ensure the synchronous speed tracking control of each agent.Simulation results on the actual CRH380A running data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
The paper proposes a Virtual Target Guidance(VTG)-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC) scheme for formation control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First, a framework of distributed MPC scheme is...The paper proposes a Virtual Target Guidance(VTG)-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC) scheme for formation control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First, a framework of distributed MPC scheme is designed in which each UAV only shares the information with its neighbors, and the obtained local Finite-Horizon Optimal Control Problem(FHOCP) can be solved by swarm intelligent optimization algorithm.Then, a VTG approach is developed and integrated into the distributed MPC scheme to achieve trajectory tracking and obstacle avoidance.Further, an event-triggered mechanism is proposed to reduce the computational burden for UAV formation control, which takes into consideration the predictive state errors as well as the convergence of cost function.Numerical simulations show that the proposed VTG-based distributed MPC scheme is more computationally efficient to achieve formation control of multiple UAVs in comparison with the traditional distributed MPC method.展开更多
The paper proposes a new swarm intelligence-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC)approach for coordination control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First,a distributed MPC framework is designed and...The paper proposes a new swarm intelligence-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC)approach for coordination control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First,a distributed MPC framework is designed and each member only shares the information with neighbors.The Chaotic Grey Wolf Optimization(CGWO)method is developed on the basis of chaotic initialization and chaotic search to solve the local Finite Horizon Optimal Control Problem(FHOCP).Then,the distributed cost function is designed and integrated into each FHOCP to achieve multi-UAV formation control and trajectory tracking with no-fly zone constraint.Further,an event-triggered strategy is proposed to reduce the computational burden for the distributed MPC approach,which considers the predicted state errors and the convergence of cost function.Simulation results show that the CGWO-based distributed MPC approach is more computationally efficient to achieve multi-UAV coordination control than traditional method.展开更多
The geologic conditions of superimposed basins in China are very complicated. This is mainly shown by multi-phase structural evolution, multiple sets of source-reservoir-cap rock combinations, multiple stages of hydro...The geologic conditions of superimposed basins in China are very complicated. This is mainly shown by multi-phase structural evolution, multiple sets of source-reservoir-cap rock combinations, multiple stages of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from source rocks, multi-cycle hydrocarbon enrichment and accumulation, and multi-phase reservoir adjustment and reconstruction. The enrichment, accumulation and distribution of hydrocarbon is mainly controlled by the source rock kitchen, paleo- anticline, regional cap rock and intensity of tectonic movement. In this paper, the T-BCMS model has been developed to predict favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation in complicated superimposed basins according to time and spatial relationships among five key factors. The five factors include unconformity surface representing tectonic balancing （B）, regional cap rock representing hydrocarbon protection （C）, paleo-anticline representing hydrocarbon migration and accumulation （M）, source rock kitchen representing hydrocarbon generation and expulsion （S） and geological time （T）. There are three necessary conditions to form favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation. First, four key factors BCMS should be strictly in the order of BCMS from top to bottom. Second, superimposition of four key factors BCMS in the same area is the most favorable for hydrocarbon accumulation. Third, vertically ordered combination and superimposition in the same area of BCMS should occur at the same geological time. The model has been used to predict the most favorable exploration areas in Ordovician in the Tarim Basin in the main hydrocarbon accumulation periods. The result shows that 95% of the discovered Ordovician hydrocarbon reservoirs are located in the predicted areas, which indicates the feasibility and reliability of the key factor matching T-BCMS model for hydrocarbon accumulation and enrichment.展开更多
In this paper,a resilient distributed control scheme against replay attacks for multi-agent networked systems subject to input and state constraints is proposed.The methodological starting point relies on a smart use ...In this paper,a resilient distributed control scheme against replay attacks for multi-agent networked systems subject to input and state constraints is proposed.The methodological starting point relies on a smart use of predictive arguments with a twofold aim:1)Promptly detect malicious agent behaviors affecting normal system operations;2)Apply specific control actions,based on predictive ideas,for mitigating as much as possible undesirable domino effects resulting from adversary operations.Specifically,the multi-agent system is topologically described by a leader-follower digraph characterized by a unique leader and set-theoretic receding horizon control ideas are exploited to develop a distributed algorithm capable to instantaneously recognize the attacked agent.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out to show benefits and effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
Multi-agent systems are usually equipped with open communication infrastructures to improve interactions efficiency,reliability and sustainability.Although technologically costeffective,this makes them vulnerable to c...Multi-agent systems are usually equipped with open communication infrastructures to improve interactions efficiency,reliability and sustainability.Although technologically costeffective,this makes them vulnerable to cyber-attacks with potentially catastrophic consequences.To this end,we present a novel control architecture capable to deal with the distributed constrained regulation problem in the presence of time-delay attacks on the agents’communication infrastructure.The basic idea consists of orchestrating the interconnected cyber-physical system as a leader-follower configuration so that adequate control actions are computed to isolate the attacked unit before it compromises the system operations.Simulations on a multi-area power system confirm that the proposed control scheme can reconfigure the leader-follower structure in response to denial ofservice(DoS)attacks.展开更多
Crop damages by wildlife is a frequent form of human-wildlife conflict. Identifying areas where the risk of crop damages is highest is pivotal to set up preventive measures and reduce conflict. Species distribution mo...Crop damages by wildlife is a frequent form of human-wildlife conflict. Identifying areas where the risk of crop damages is highest is pivotal to set up preventive measures and reduce conflict. Species distribution models are routinely used to predict species distribution in response of environmental changes. The aim of this paper was assessing whether species distribution models can allow to identify the areas most at risk of crop damages, helping to set up management strategies aimed at the mitigation of human-wildlife conflicts. We obtained data on wild boar Sus scrofa damages to crops in the Alta Murgia National Park, Southern Italy, and related them to landscape features, to identify areas where the risk of wild boar damages is highest. We used MaxEnt to build species distribution models. We identified the spatial scale at which landscape mostly affects the distribution damages, and optimized the regularization parameter of models, through an information-theoretic approach based on AIC. Wild boar damages quickly increased in the period 2007-2011; cereals and legtmaes were the crops more affected. Large areas of the park have a high risk of wild boar damages. The risk of damages was related to low cover of urban areas or olive grows, intermediate values of forest cover, and high values of shrubland cover within a 2-km radius. Temporally independent validation data demonstrated that models can successfully predict damages in the future. Species distribution models can accurately identify the areas most at risk of wildlife damages, as models calibrated on data collected during only a subset of years correctly predicted damages in the subsequent year [Current Zoology 60 （2）： 170-179, 2014].展开更多
Considering that the inevitable disturbances and coupled constraints pose an ongoing challenge to distributed control algorithms,this paper proposes a distributed robust model predictive control(MPC)algorithm for a mu...Considering that the inevitable disturbances and coupled constraints pose an ongoing challenge to distributed control algorithms,this paper proposes a distributed robust model predictive control(MPC)algorithm for a multi-agent system with additive external disturbances and obstacle and collision avoidance constraints.In particular,all the agents are allowed to solve optimization problems simultaneously at each time step to obtain their control inputs,and the obstacle and collision avoidance are accomplished in the context of full-dimensional controlled objects and obstacles.To achieve the collision avoidance between agents in the distributed framework,an assumed state trajectory is introduced for each agent which is transmitted to its neighbors to construct the polyhedral over-approximations of it.Then the polyhedral over-approximations of the agent and the obstacles are used to smoothly reformulate the original nonconvex obstacle and collision avoidance constraints.And a compatibility constraint is designed to restrict the deviation between the predicted and assumed trajectories.Moreover,recursive feasibility of each local MPC optimization problem with all these constraints derived and input-to-state stability of the closed-loop system can be ensured through a sufficient condition on controller parameters.Finally,simulations with four agents and two obstacles demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
To solve the coupling relationship between the strip automatic gauge control and the looper control in traditional control strategy of tandem hot rolling,a distributed model predictive control(DMPC)strategy for the ta...To solve the coupling relationship between the strip automatic gauge control and the looper control in traditional control strategy of tandem hot rolling,a distributed model predictive control(DMPC)strategy for the tandem hot rolling was explored,and a series of simulation experiments were carried out.Firstly,based on the state space analysis method,the multivariable dynamic transition process of hot strip rolling was studied,and the state space model of a gauge-looper integrated system in tandem hot rolling was established.Secondly,DMPC strategy based on neighborhood optimization was proposed,which fully considered the coupling relationship in this integrated system.Finally,a series of experiments simulating disturbances and emergency situations were completed with actual rolling data.The experimental results showed that the proposed DMPC control strategy had better performance compared with the traditional proportional-integral control and centralized model predictive control,which is applicable for the gauge-looper integrated system.展开更多
A method combining computationalfluid dynamics(CFD)and an analytical approach is proposed to develop a prediction model for the variable thickness of the spray-induced liquidfilm along the surface of a cylindrical workp...A method combining computationalfluid dynamics(CFD)and an analytical approach is proposed to develop a prediction model for the variable thickness of the spray-induced liquidfilm along the surface of a cylindrical workpiece.The numerical method relies on an Eulerian-Eulerian technique.Different cylinder diameters and positions and inclinations of the spray gun are considered and useful correlations for the thickness of the liquidfilm and its distribution are determined using various datafitting algorithms.Finally,the reliability of the pro-posed method is verified by means of experimental tests where the robot posture is changed.The provided cor-relation are intended to support the optimization of spray-based coating applications.展开更多
By examining field outcrops, drilling cores and seismic data, it is concluded that the Middle and Late Permian “Emeishan basalts” in Western Sichuan Basin were developed in two large eruption cycles, and the two set...By examining field outcrops, drilling cores and seismic data, it is concluded that the Middle and Late Permian “Emeishan basalts” in Western Sichuan Basin were developed in two large eruption cycles, and the two sets of igneous rocks are in unconformable contact. The lower cycle is dominated by overflow volcanic rocks;while the upper cycle made up of pyroclastic flow volcanic breccia and pyroclastic lava is typical explosive facies accumulation. With high-quality micro-dissolution pores and ultra-fine dissolution pores, the upper cycle is a set of high-quality porous reservoir. Based on strong heterogeneity and great differences of pyroclastic flow subfacies from surrounding rocks in lithology and physical properties, the volcanic facies and volcanic edifices in Western Sichuan were effectively predicted and characterized by using seismic attribute analysis method and instantaneous amplitude and instantaneous frequency coherence analysis. The pyroclastic flow volcanic rocks are widely distributed in the Jianyang area. Centering around wells YT1, TF2 and TF8, the volcanic rocks in Jianyang area had 3edifice groups and an area of about 500 km^(2), which is the most favorable area for oil and gas exploration in volcanic rocks.展开更多
This paper addresses an improved distributed model predictive control （DMPC） scheme for multiagent systems with an attempt to improving its consistency. The deviation between what an agent is actually doing and what...This paper addresses an improved distributed model predictive control （DMPC） scheme for multiagent systems with an attempt to improving its consistency. The deviation between what an agent is actually doing and what its neighbors believe that agent is doing is penalized in the cost function of each agent. At each sampling instant the compatibility constraint of each agent is set tighter than the previous sampling instant. Like the traditional approach, the performance cost is utilized as the Lyapunov function to prove closed-looped stability. The closed-loop stability is guaranteed if the weight matrix for deviation in the cost function are sufficiently large. The proposed distributed control scheme is formulated as quadratic programming with quadratic constraints. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.展开更多
In this paper,distributed model predictive control(DMPC) for island DC micro-grids(MG) with wind/photovoltaic(PV)/battery power is proposed,which coordinates all distributed generations(DG) to stabilize the bus voltag...In this paper,distributed model predictive control(DMPC) for island DC micro-grids(MG) with wind/photovoltaic(PV)/battery power is proposed,which coordinates all distributed generations(DG) to stabilize the bus voltage together with the insurance of having computational efficiency under a real-time requirement.Based on the feedback of the bus voltage,the deviation of the current is dispatched to each DG according to cost over the prediction horizon.Moreover,to avoid the excessive fluctuation of the battery power,both the discharge-charge switching times and costs are considered in the model predictive control(MPC) optimization problems.A Lyapunov constraint with a time-varying steady-state is designed in each local MPC to guarantee the stabilization of the entire system.The voltage stabilization of the MG is achieved by this strategy with the cooperation of DGs.The numeric results of applying the proposed method to a MG of the Shanghai Power Supply Company shows the effectiveness of the distributed economic MPC.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U24B20156)the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China(No.JCKY2021204B051)the National Laboratory of Space Intelligent Control of China(Nos.HTKJ2023KL502005 and HTKJ2024KL502007)。
文摘A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.
基金financial supports are from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41702130 and 41971335)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2017T100419 and 2019M660269)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)。
文摘The Yanchang Formation Chang 7 oil-bearing layer of the Ordos Basin is important in China for producing shale oil.The present-day in situ stress state is of practical implications for the exploration and development of shale oil;however,few studies are focused on stress distributions within the Chang 7 reservoir.In this study,the present-day in situ stress distribution within the Chang 7 reservoir was predicted using the combined spring model based on well logs and measured stress data.The results indicate that stress magnitudes increase with burial depth within the Chang 7 reservoir.Overall,the horizontal maximum principal stress(SHmax),horizontal minimum principal stress(Shmin) and vertical stress(Sv) follow the relationship of Sv≥SHmax>Shmin,indicating a dominant normal faulting stress regime within the Chang 7 reservoir of Ordos Basin.Laterally,high stress values are mainly distributed in the northwestern parts of the studied region,while low stress values are found in the southeastern parts.Factors influencing stress distributions are also analyzed.Stress magnitudes within the Chang 7 reservoir show a positive linear relationship with burial depth.A larger value of Young's modulus results in higher stress magnitudes,and the differential horizontal stress becomes higher when the rock Young's modulus grows larger.
基金supported by the Special Fund for Agroscientific Research in the Public Interest,China(20110300501-01)the Special Fund for First-Class University (4572-18101510)
文摘Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980 s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers.The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in more attention to green manure.Human intervention and policy-oriented behaviors likely have large impacts on promoting green manure planting.However,little information is available regarding on where,at what rates,and in which ways（i.e.,intercropping green manure in orchards or rotating green manure in cropland） to develop green manure and what benefits could be gained by incorporating green manure in fields at the county scale.This paper presents the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent（CLUE-S） model,which is specifically developed for the simulation of land use changes originally,to predict spatial distribution of green manure in cropland and orchards in 2020 in Pinggu District located in Beijing,China.Four types of land use for planting or not planting green manure were classified and the future land use dynamics（mainly croplands and orchards） were considered in the prediction.Two scenarios were used to predict the spatial distribution of green manure based on data from 2011：The promotion of green manure planting in orchards（scenario 1） and the promotion of simultaneous green manure planting in orchards and croplands（scenario 2）.The predictions were generally accurate based on the receiver operating characteristic（ROC） and Kappa indices,which validated the effectiveness of the CLUE-S model in the prediction.In addition,the spatial distribution of the green manure was acquired,which indicated that green manure mainly located in the orchards of the middle and southern regions of Dahuashan,the western and southern regions of Wangxinzhuang,the middle region of Shandongzhuang,the eastern region of Pinggu and the middle region of Xiagezhuang under scenario 1.Green manure planting under scenario 2 occurred in orchards in the middle region of Wangxinzhuang,and croplands in most regions of Daxingzhuang,southern Pinggu,northern Xiagezhuang and most of Mafang.The spatially explicit results allowed for the assessment of the benefits of these changes based on different economic and ecological indicators.The economic and ecological gains of scenarios 1 and 2 were 175691 900 and143000 300 CNY,respectively,which indicated that the first scenario was more beneficial for promoting the same area of green manure.These results can facilitate policies of promoting green manure and guide the extensive use of green manure in local agricultural production in suitable ways.
基金Supported by National Basic Science Talent Culture Fund Item,China(J1103511)
文摘[ Objective] The research aimed to study distribution prediction of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China under climatic change background. [ Method] By using the maximum entropy model and many kinds of climate change scenarios, we predicted current and future distribution pattems of suitable growth area for Eucommia ulmoides in China and its change process. [ Result ] At present, highly suitable growth area of E. ulmoides mainly distributed in Sichuan, Shaanxi and Chongqing, Under climate change background, total suitable growth areas in future three decades all drastically reduced when compared with that at present. It was noteworthy that moderately and highly suitable growth areas of wild E. ulmoides all disappeared, and junction between Shaanxi and Gansu and Taibai Mountain would be stable suitable growth area of wild E. ulmoides. [ Condusioa] The research could provide useful reference data for investigation, protection and sustainable development of the wild E. ulmoides resources.
基金This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2572020AW43NO.2572019CP19)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31470715)the Natural Science Foundation of Hei-longjiang Province(Grant No.TD2020C001)the project for cultivating excellent doctoral dissertation of forestry engineering(Grant No.LYGCYB202009).
文摘The moisture content of dead forest fuel is an important indicator of risk levels of forest fires and prediction of fire spread. Moisture distribution is important to determine wild fire rating. However, it is often difficult to predict moisture distribution because of a complex terrain, changeable environments and low cover of commercial communication signals inside the forest. This study proposes a moisture content prediction system composed of environmental data collected using a long range radio frequency band 433 MHz wireless sensor network and data processing for moisture prediction based on a BP (back-propagation) neural network. In the fall of 2019, twenty nodes for the collection of environmental data were placed in four forest stands of Maoershan National Forest for a month;7440 sets of data including temperature, humidity, wind speed and air pressure were obtained. Half the data were used as a training set, the other as a testing set for a BP neural network. The results show that the average absolute error between the predicted value and the real value of moisture content of fuels of Larix gmelini, Betula platyphylla, Juglans mandshurica, and Quercus mongolica stands was 0.94%, 0.21%, 0.86%, 0.97%, respectively. The prediction accuracy was relatively high. The proposed distributed moisture content prediction method has the advantages of wide coverage and good real-time performance;at the same time, it is not limited by commercial signals and so it is especially suitable for forest fire prediction in remote mountainous areas.
基金Supported by Key Discipline of Forest Protection in Yunnan Province(XKZ200905)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31260105)
文摘Based on Maxent niche model and combined with ArcGIS,the suitable area range for Quadrastichus erythrinae Kim in China was predicted in the paper.The results showed that high suitable area for Q. erythrinae in China included most northeast coastal areas of Hainan Island,partial southern coastal area of Guangdong Province,partial northwestern coastal area and partial southeast coastal area of Taiwan Island; moderate suitable area included partial area of Hainan,some contiguous areas of Guangxi and Guangdong,most areas of Guangdong,partial area of Fujian and Taiwan; low suitable area included partial area from northwestern coast to inland of Hainan Island,west coastal area of Taiwan Island,most area in Guangxi,partial areas in Guangdong,Fujian and Yunnan.
文摘DDF(dry dipterocarp forest)is importantly deciduous forest type in Thailand since it consists of important tree species for timber products and non-timber products.So,people would like to come to use these products for daily uses in this forest type.The main aim of this study is to evaluate significant biophysical factors for DDF distribution using factor analysis and to model DDF distribution using ENFA(ecological niche factor analysis).In this study,13 watersheds of Ping Basin in northern Thailand were selected as the study site based on availability of forest inventory data in 2007 from DNP(Department of National Parks,Wildlife and Plant Conservation).Basic biophysical data for data analysis included forest inventory data(179 DDF plots),10 climatic data,three topographic data,and one soil data.For identification and evaluation of biophysical factors for DDF distribution using factor analysis,the first three factors,namely DDF-1,DDF-2 and DDF-3,had been extracted with 95.35%of total variance.These three components were used to predict DDF distribution based on HS(habitat suitability)with ENFA.In practice,the results were validated with AVI(absolute validation index)and CVI(contrast validation index)with validated forest inventory dataset.This evaluation shows that DDF-2 model is the best HS data consisting of four physical factors(mean annually temperature,mean monthly maximum temperature,mean monthly minimum temperature,and elevation),which is able to effectively used for habitat suitability for DDF distribution prediction.It was found that habitat suitability for DDF distribution can be classified into four classes including high suitable habitat,moderate suitable habitat,low suitable habitat,and unsuitable habitat.As a result,DDF distributions with high suitable habitat are highly related with DDF forest inventory plots of DNP.Thus,the obtained output can be further used for DDF rehabilitation according to climate and topographic factors.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61164013,U1334211,51174091)the Key Program of China Ministry of Railway(2011Z002-D)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province(20122BAB201021)
文摘The distributed-power electric multiple units(EMUs)are widely used in high-speed railway.Due to the structural characteristic of mutual-coupled power units in EMUs,each power unit is set as an agent.Combining with the traction/brake characteristic curve and running data of EMUs,a subtractive clustering method and pattern classification algorithm are adopted to set up a multi-model set for every agent.Then,the multi-agent model is established according to the multi-agent network topology and mutual-coupled constraint relations.Finally,we adopt a smooth start switching control strategy and a multi-agent distributed coordination control algorithm to ensure the synchronous speed tracking control of each agent.Simulation results on the actual CRH380A running data show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61803009)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.YWF-19-BJ-J-205)Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.20175851032)。
文摘The paper proposes a Virtual Target Guidance(VTG)-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC) scheme for formation control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First, a framework of distributed MPC scheme is designed in which each UAV only shares the information with its neighbors, and the obtained local Finite-Horizon Optimal Control Problem(FHOCP) can be solved by swarm intelligent optimization algorithm.Then, a VTG approach is developed and integrated into the distributed MPC scheme to achieve trajectory tracking and obstacle avoidance.Further, an event-triggered mechanism is proposed to reduce the computational burden for UAV formation control, which takes into consideration the predictive state errors as well as the convergence of cost function.Numerical simulations show that the proposed VTG-based distributed MPC scheme is more computationally efficient to achieve formation control of multiple UAVs in comparison with the traditional distributed MPC method.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61803009,61903084)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(No.YWF-20-BJ-J-542)Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.20175851032)。
文摘The paper proposes a new swarm intelligence-based distributed Model Predictive Control(MPC)approach for coordination control of multiple Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs).First,a distributed MPC framework is designed and each member only shares the information with neighbors.The Chaotic Grey Wolf Optimization(CGWO)method is developed on the basis of chaotic initialization and chaotic search to solve the local Finite Horizon Optimal Control Problem(FHOCP).Then,the distributed cost function is designed and integrated into each FHOCP to achieve multi-UAV formation control and trajectory tracking with no-fly zone constraint.Further,an event-triggered strategy is proposed to reduce the computational burden for the distributed MPC approach,which considers the predicted state errors and the convergence of cost function.Simulation results show that the CGWO-based distributed MPC approach is more computationally efficient to achieve multi-UAV coordination control than traditional method.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program (2006CB202308)
文摘The geologic conditions of superimposed basins in China are very complicated. This is mainly shown by multi-phase structural evolution, multiple sets of source-reservoir-cap rock combinations, multiple stages of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from source rocks, multi-cycle hydrocarbon enrichment and accumulation, and multi-phase reservoir adjustment and reconstruction. The enrichment, accumulation and distribution of hydrocarbon is mainly controlled by the source rock kitchen, paleo- anticline, regional cap rock and intensity of tectonic movement. In this paper, the T-BCMS model has been developed to predict favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation in complicated superimposed basins according to time and spatial relationships among five key factors. The five factors include unconformity surface representing tectonic balancing （B）, regional cap rock representing hydrocarbon protection （C）, paleo-anticline representing hydrocarbon migration and accumulation （M）, source rock kitchen representing hydrocarbon generation and expulsion （S） and geological time （T）. There are three necessary conditions to form favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation. First, four key factors BCMS should be strictly in the order of BCMS from top to bottom. Second, superimposition of four key factors BCMS in the same area is the most favorable for hydrocarbon accumulation. Third, vertically ordered combination and superimposition in the same area of BCMS should occur at the same geological time. The model has been used to predict the most favorable exploration areas in Ordovician in the Tarim Basin in the main hydrocarbon accumulation periods. The result shows that 95% of the discovered Ordovician hydrocarbon reservoirs are located in the predicted areas, which indicates the feasibility and reliability of the key factor matching T-BCMS model for hydrocarbon accumulation and enrichment.
文摘In this paper,a resilient distributed control scheme against replay attacks for multi-agent networked systems subject to input and state constraints is proposed.The methodological starting point relies on a smart use of predictive arguments with a twofold aim:1)Promptly detect malicious agent behaviors affecting normal system operations;2)Apply specific control actions,based on predictive ideas,for mitigating as much as possible undesirable domino effects resulting from adversary operations.Specifically,the multi-agent system is topologically described by a leader-follower digraph characterized by a unique leader and set-theoretic receding horizon control ideas are exploited to develop a distributed algorithm capable to instantaneously recognize the attacked agent.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out to show benefits and effectiveness of the proposed approach.
文摘Multi-agent systems are usually equipped with open communication infrastructures to improve interactions efficiency,reliability and sustainability.Although technologically costeffective,this makes them vulnerable to cyber-attacks with potentially catastrophic consequences.To this end,we present a novel control architecture capable to deal with the distributed constrained regulation problem in the presence of time-delay attacks on the agents’communication infrastructure.The basic idea consists of orchestrating the interconnected cyber-physical system as a leader-follower configuration so that adequate control actions are computed to isolate the attacked unit before it compromises the system operations.Simulations on a multi-area power system confirm that the proposed control scheme can reconfigure the leader-follower structure in response to denial ofservice(DoS)attacks.
文摘Crop damages by wildlife is a frequent form of human-wildlife conflict. Identifying areas where the risk of crop damages is highest is pivotal to set up preventive measures and reduce conflict. Species distribution models are routinely used to predict species distribution in response of environmental changes. The aim of this paper was assessing whether species distribution models can allow to identify the areas most at risk of crop damages, helping to set up management strategies aimed at the mitigation of human-wildlife conflicts. We obtained data on wild boar Sus scrofa damages to crops in the Alta Murgia National Park, Southern Italy, and related them to landscape features, to identify areas where the risk of wild boar damages is highest. We used MaxEnt to build species distribution models. We identified the spatial scale at which landscape mostly affects the distribution damages, and optimized the regularization parameter of models, through an information-theoretic approach based on AIC. Wild boar damages quickly increased in the period 2007-2011; cereals and legtmaes were the crops more affected. Large areas of the park have a high risk of wild boar damages. The risk of damages was related to low cover of urban areas or olive grows, intermediate values of forest cover, and high values of shrubland cover within a 2-km radius. Temporally independent validation data demonstrated that models can successfully predict damages in the future. Species distribution models can accurately identify the areas most at risk of wildlife damages, as models calibrated on data collected during only a subset of years correctly predicted damages in the subsequent year [Current Zoology 60 （2）： 170-179, 2014].
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62173036,62003040,62122014)the Beijing Institute of Technology Research Fund Program for Young Scholars.
文摘Considering that the inevitable disturbances and coupled constraints pose an ongoing challenge to distributed control algorithms,this paper proposes a distributed robust model predictive control(MPC)algorithm for a multi-agent system with additive external disturbances and obstacle and collision avoidance constraints.In particular,all the agents are allowed to solve optimization problems simultaneously at each time step to obtain their control inputs,and the obstacle and collision avoidance are accomplished in the context of full-dimensional controlled objects and obstacles.To achieve the collision avoidance between agents in the distributed framework,an assumed state trajectory is introduced for each agent which is transmitted to its neighbors to construct the polyhedral over-approximations of it.Then the polyhedral over-approximations of the agent and the obstacles are used to smoothly reformulate the original nonconvex obstacle and collision avoidance constraints.And a compatibility constraint is designed to restrict the deviation between the predicted and assumed trajectories.Moreover,recursive feasibility of each local MPC optimization problem with all these constraints derived and input-to-state stability of the closed-loop system can be ensured through a sufficient condition on controller parameters.Finally,simulations with four agents and two obstacles demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm.
基金This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant Nos.2018YFB1308700)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U21A20117 and 52074085+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Univer-sities(Grant No.N2004010)the Liaoning Revitalization Talents651 Program(XLYC1907065).
文摘To solve the coupling relationship between the strip automatic gauge control and the looper control in traditional control strategy of tandem hot rolling,a distributed model predictive control(DMPC)strategy for the tandem hot rolling was explored,and a series of simulation experiments were carried out.Firstly,based on the state space analysis method,the multivariable dynamic transition process of hot strip rolling was studied,and the state space model of a gauge-looper integrated system in tandem hot rolling was established.Secondly,DMPC strategy based on neighborhood optimization was proposed,which fully considered the coupling relationship in this integrated system.Finally,a series of experiments simulating disturbances and emergency situations were completed with actual rolling data.The experimental results showed that the proposed DMPC control strategy had better performance compared with the traditional proportional-integral control and centralized model predictive control,which is applicable for the gauge-looper integrated system.
基金This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51405418)in part by the Major Program of Natural Science Foundation of Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province(18KJA460009)+2 种基金in part by the Jiangsu“Qing Lan Project”Talent Project(2021)Major Projects of Natural Science Research in Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(Grant No.21KJA460009)General Program of Jiangsu University Natural Science Foundation(22KJD460009).
文摘A method combining computationalfluid dynamics(CFD)and an analytical approach is proposed to develop a prediction model for the variable thickness of the spray-induced liquidfilm along the surface of a cylindrical workpiece.The numerical method relies on an Eulerian-Eulerian technique.Different cylinder diameters and positions and inclinations of the spray gun are considered and useful correlations for the thickness of the liquidfilm and its distribution are determined using various datafitting algorithms.Finally,the reliability of the pro-posed method is verified by means of experimental tests where the robot posture is changed.The provided cor-relation are intended to support the optimization of spray-based coating applications.
基金Supported by the Scientific and Technological Major Project of the Southwest Oil and Gas Field Company (2019ZD01-03)。
文摘By examining field outcrops, drilling cores and seismic data, it is concluded that the Middle and Late Permian “Emeishan basalts” in Western Sichuan Basin were developed in two large eruption cycles, and the two sets of igneous rocks are in unconformable contact. The lower cycle is dominated by overflow volcanic rocks;while the upper cycle made up of pyroclastic flow volcanic breccia and pyroclastic lava is typical explosive facies accumulation. With high-quality micro-dissolution pores and ultra-fine dissolution pores, the upper cycle is a set of high-quality porous reservoir. Based on strong heterogeneity and great differences of pyroclastic flow subfacies from surrounding rocks in lithology and physical properties, the volcanic facies and volcanic edifices in Western Sichuan were effectively predicted and characterized by using seismic attribute analysis method and instantaneous amplitude and instantaneous frequency coherence analysis. The pyroclastic flow volcanic rocks are widely distributed in the Jianyang area. Centering around wells YT1, TF2 and TF8, the volcanic rocks in Jianyang area had 3edifice groups and an area of about 500 km^(2), which is the most favorable area for oil and gas exploration in volcanic rocks.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.60874046,60974090)the Ph.D.Programs Foundation of the Ministry of Education of China(No.200806110021)the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing of China(CSTS No.2008BB2049)
文摘This paper addresses an improved distributed model predictive control （DMPC） scheme for multiagent systems with an attempt to improving its consistency. The deviation between what an agent is actually doing and what its neighbors believe that agent is doing is penalized in the cost function of each agent. At each sampling instant the compatibility constraint of each agent is set tighter than the previous sampling instant. Like the traditional approach, the performance cost is utilized as the Lyapunov function to prove closed-looped stability. The closed-loop stability is guaranteed if the weight matrix for deviation in the cost function are sufficiently large. The proposed distributed control scheme is formulated as quadratic programming with quadratic constraints. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2018AAA0101701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62073220,61833012)。
文摘In this paper,distributed model predictive control(DMPC) for island DC micro-grids(MG) with wind/photovoltaic(PV)/battery power is proposed,which coordinates all distributed generations(DG) to stabilize the bus voltage together with the insurance of having computational efficiency under a real-time requirement.Based on the feedback of the bus voltage,the deviation of the current is dispatched to each DG according to cost over the prediction horizon.Moreover,to avoid the excessive fluctuation of the battery power,both the discharge-charge switching times and costs are considered in the model predictive control(MPC) optimization problems.A Lyapunov constraint with a time-varying steady-state is designed in each local MPC to guarantee the stabilization of the entire system.The voltage stabilization of the MG is achieved by this strategy with the cooperation of DGs.The numeric results of applying the proposed method to a MG of the Shanghai Power Supply Company shows the effectiveness of the distributed economic MPC.
