This study examines how native pore structures and loading conditions influencethe fracture size distribution and the predictability of catastrophic failure in rocks.Four lithologies with distinct pore characteristics...This study examines how native pore structures and loading conditions influencethe fracture size distribution and the predictability of catastrophic failure in rocks.Four lithologies with distinct pore characteristics,i.e.granite,limestone,red sandstone,and marble,were tested under uniaxial compression and Brazilian splitting.Nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)was used to characterize pore structures,while acoustic emission(AE)monitoring captured the temporal evolution of microcracking.The relationships among pore properties,AE b-values,and failure predictability were systematically evaluated.Results show that the overall b-value is primarily controlled by native pore size rather than loading condition.Rocks with larger pores display higher b-value and greater temporal variability,whereas those with smaller pores exhibit lower and more stable b-value.To assess failure predictability,the AE count rate was incorporated into an inverse power law model.The model demonstrates higher predictive accuracy for high-porosity rocks.The average predicted failure time(t_(p))decreases monotonically with porosity:under uniaxial compression,t_(p)for granite,marble,limestone,and sandstone are 2.32,1.82,1.42,and 0.03,respectively;under Brazilian splitting,3.54,3.30,0.10,and 0.03.Among the four rock types,sandstone with the highest porosity exhibits the smallest discrepancy between predicted and actual failure time,whereas granite with the lowest porosity shows the largest.As porosity decreases,prediction accuracy progressively declines for limestone and marble.Overall,the findings indicate that native pore heterogeneity governs both fracture scaling behavior and failure predictability,and that these effects are largely independent of the loading conditions examined in this study.展开更多
The “well factory” mode's high-density well placement and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technology enable efficient development of unconventional oil and gas resources.However,the deployment of platform wells...The “well factory” mode's high-density well placement and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technology enable efficient development of unconventional oil and gas resources.However,the deployment of platform wells in the “well factory” model results in small wellbore spacing,and the stress disturbances caused by fracturing operations may affect neighboring wells,leading to inter-well interference phenomena that cause casing deformation.This study investigates the issue of inter-well interference causing casing deformation or even failure during multi-stage hydraulic fracturing in the “well factory”model,and predicts high-risk locations for casing failure.A flow-mechanics coupled geomechanical finite element model with retaining geological stratification characteristics was established.Based on the theory of hydraulic fracturing-induced rock fragmentation and fluid action leading to the degradation of rock mechanical properties,the model simulated the four-dimensional evolution of multi-well fracturing areas over time and space,calculating the disturbance in the regional stress field caused by fracturing operations.Subsequently,the stress distribution of multiple well casings at different time points was calculated to predict high-risk locations for casing failure.The research results show that the redistribution of the stress field in the fracturing area increases the stress on the casing.The overlapping fracturing zones between wells cause significant stress interference,greatly increasing the risk of deformation and failure.By analyzing the Mises stress distribution of multi-well casings,high-risk locations for casing failure can be identified.The conclusion is that the key to preventing casing failure in platform wells in the “well factory” model is to optimize the spatial distribution of fracturing zones between wells and reasonably arrange well spacing.The study provides new insights and methods for predicting casing failure in unconventional oil and gas reservoirs and offers references for optimizing drilling and fracturing designs.展开更多
This article introduces a novel approach for tricone bit wear condition monitoring and failure prediction for surface mining applications.A successful bit health monitoring system is essential to achieve fully autonom...This article introduces a novel approach for tricone bit wear condition monitoring and failure prediction for surface mining applications.A successful bit health monitoring system is essential to achieve fully autonomous blasthole drilling.In this research in-situ vibration signals were analyzed in timefrequency domain and signals trend during tricone bit life span were investigated and introduced to support the development of artificial intelligence(AI)models.In addition to the signal statistical features,wavelet packet energy distribution proved to be a powerful indicator for bit wear assessment.Backpropagation artificial neural network(ANN)models were designed,trained and evaluated for bit state classification.Finally,an ANN architecture and feature vector were introduced to classify the bit condition and predict the bit failure.展开更多
The occurrence of perioperative heart failure will affect the quality of medical services and threaten the safety of patients.Existing methods depend on the judgment of doctors,the results are affected by many factors...The occurrence of perioperative heart failure will affect the quality of medical services and threaten the safety of patients.Existing methods depend on the judgment of doctors,the results are affected by many factors such as doctors’knowledge and experience.The accuracy is difficult to guarantee and has a serious lag.In this paper,a mixture prediction model is proposed for perioperative adverse events of heart failure,which combined with the advantages of the Deep Pyramid Convolutional Neural Networks(DPCNN)and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBOOST).The DPCNN was used to automatically extract features from patient’s diagnostic texts,and the text features were integrated with the preoperative examination and intraoperative monitoring values of patients,then the XGBOOST algorithm was used to construct the prediction model of heart failure.An experimental comparison was conducted on the model based on the data of patients with heart failure in southwest hospital from 2014 to 2018.The results showed that the DPCNN-XGBOOST model improved the predictive sensitivity of the model by 3%and 31%compared with the text-based DPCNN Model and the numeric-based XGBOOST Model.展开更多
The development of cloud computing and virtualization technology has brought great challenges to the reliability of data center services.Data centers typically contain a large number of compute and storage nodes which...The development of cloud computing and virtualization technology has brought great challenges to the reliability of data center services.Data centers typically contain a large number of compute and storage nodes which may fail and affect the quality of service.Failure prediction is an important means of ensuring service availability.Predicting node failure in cloud-based data centers is challenging because the failure symptoms reflected have complex characteristics,and the distribution imbalance between the failure sample and the normal sample is widespread,resulting in inaccurate failure prediction.Targeting these challenges,this paper proposes a novel failure prediction method FP-STE(Failure Prediction based on Spatio-temporal Feature Extraction).Firstly,an improved recurrent neural network HW-GRU(Improved GRU based on HighWay network)and a convolutional neural network CNN are used to extract the temporal features and spatial features of multivariate data respectively to increase the discrimination of different types of failure symptoms which improves the accuracy of prediction.Then the intermediate results of the two models are added as features into SCSXGBoost to predict the possibility and the precise type of node failure in the future.SCS-XGBoost is an ensemble learning model that is improved by the integrated strategy of oversampling and cost-sensitive learning.Experimental results based on real data sets confirm the effectiveness and superiority of FP-STE.展开更多
Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electro...Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.展开更多
In the rolling stock sector, the ability to protect passengers, freight and services relies on heavy inborn maintenance. Initiating an accurate model suitable to foresee the change of attitude on components when opera...In the rolling stock sector, the ability to protect passengers, freight and services relies on heavy inborn maintenance. Initiating an accurate model suitable to foresee the change of attitude on components when operating rolling stock systems will assist in reducing lock down and favors heavy productivity. In that light, this paper showcases a suitable methodology to track degradation of components through the blinding of physic laws and artificial intelligent techniques. This model used to foresee failure deterioration rate and remaining useful life (RUL) speculation is case study to showcase its quality and perfection, within which behavioral data are obtained through simulated models initiated in Mathlab. For feature extraction and forecasting issues, different neuro-fuzzy inference systems are designed, learnt and authenticated with powerful outputs gained during this process.展开更多
Failure prediction plays an important role for many tasks such as optimal resource management in large-scale system. However, accurately failure number prediction of repairable large-scale long-running computing （RLL...Failure prediction plays an important role for many tasks such as optimal resource management in large-scale system. However, accurately failure number prediction of repairable large-scale long-running computing （RLLC） is a challenge because of the reparability and large-scale. To address the challenge, a general Bayesian serial revision prediction method based on Bootstrap approach and moving average approach is put forward, which can make an accurately prediction for the failure number. To demonstrate the performance gains of our method, extensive experiments on the data of Los Alamos National Laboratory （LANL） cluster is implemented, which is a typical RLLC system. And experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of our method is 80.2 %, and it is a greatly improvement with 4 % compared with some typical methods. Finally, the managerial implications of the models are discussed.展开更多
An approximate macroscopic yield criterion for anisotropic porous sheet metals is adopted in a failure prediction methodology that can be used to investigate the failure of sheet metals under forming operations. This...An approximate macroscopic yield criterion for anisotropic porous sheet metals is adopted in a failure prediction methodology that can be used to investigate the failure of sheet metals under forming operations. This failure prediction methodology is developed based on the Marciniak-Kuczynski approach by assuming a slightly higher void volume fraction inside randomly oriented imperfecte analysis. Here, a nonproportional deformation history including relative rotation of principal stretch directions is identified in a selected critical element of an aluminum sheet from a FEM fender forming simulation. Based on the failure prediction methodology, the failure of the critical sheet element is investigated under the non-proportional deformation history. The results show that thiven non-proportional deformation history.展开更多
The reliability of electrical connectors has critical impact on electronic systems. It is usually characterized by failure rate prediction value according to standard MIL-HDBK-217(or GJB-299 C in Chinese) in engineeri...The reliability of electrical connectors has critical impact on electronic systems. It is usually characterized by failure rate prediction value according to standard MIL-HDBK-217(or GJB-299 C in Chinese) in engineering practice. Given to their limitations and mislead results, a new failure rate prediction models needs to be presented. The presented model aims at the mechanism of increase of film thickness which leads to the increase of contact resistance. The estimated failure rate value can be given at different environmental conditions,and some of the factors affecting the reliability are taken into account. Accelerated degradation test(ADT) was conducted on GJB599 III series electrical connector. The failure rate prediction model can be simply formed and convenient to calculate the expression of failure rate changing with time at various temperature and vibration conditions. This model gives an objective assessment in short time, which makes it convenient to be applied to the engineering.展开更多
Cloud data centers consume high volume of energy for processing and switching the servers among different modes.Virtual Machine(VM)migration enhances the performance of cloud servers in terms of energy efficiency,inte...Cloud data centers consume high volume of energy for processing and switching the servers among different modes.Virtual Machine(VM)migration enhances the performance of cloud servers in terms of energy efficiency,internal failures and availability.On the other end,energy utilization can be minimized by decreasing the number of active,underutilized sources which conversely reduces the dependability of the system.In VM migration process,the VMs are migrated from underutilized physical resources to other resources to minimize energy utilization and optimize the operations.In this view,the current study develops an Improved Metaheuristic Based Failure Prediction with Virtual Machine Migration Optimization(IMFP-VMMO)model in cloud environment.The major intention of the proposed IMFP-VMMO model is to reduce energy utilization with maximum performance in terms of failure prediction.To accomplish this,IMFPVMMO model employs Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)classification model at initial stage for effectual prediction of VM failures.At the same time,VMs are optimally migrated using Quasi-Oppositional Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm(QO-AFSA)which in turn reduces the energy consumption.The performance of the proposed IMFP-VMMO technique was validated and the results established the enhanced performance of the proposed model.The comparative study outcomes confirmed the better performance of the proposed IMFP-VMMO model over recent approaches.展开更多
In order to achieve failure prediction without manual intervention for distributed systems, a novel failure feature analysis and extraction approach to automate failure prediction is proposed. Compared with the tradit...In order to achieve failure prediction without manual intervention for distributed systems, a novel failure feature analysis and extraction approach to automate failure prediction is proposed. Compared with the traditional methods which focus on building heuristic rules or models, the autonomic prediction approach analyzes the nonlinear correlation of failure features by recognizing failure patterns. Failure data are sorted according to the nonlinear correlation and failure signature is proposed for autonomic prediction. In addition, the Manifold Learning algorithm named supervised locally linear embedding is applied to achieve feature extraction. Based on the runtime monitoring of failure metrics, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method has better performance in terms of both correlation recognition precision and feature extraction quality and thus it can be used to design efficient autonomic failure prediction for distributed systems.展开更多
Scientific workflows have gained the emerging attention in sophisti-cated large-scale scientific problem-solving environments.The pay-per-use model of cloud,its scalability and dynamic deployment enables it suited for ex...Scientific workflows have gained the emerging attention in sophisti-cated large-scale scientific problem-solving environments.The pay-per-use model of cloud,its scalability and dynamic deployment enables it suited for executing scientific workflow applications.Since the cloud is not a utopian environment,failures are inevitable that may result in experiencingfluctuations in the delivered performance.Though a single task failure occurs in workflow based applications,due to its task dependency nature,the reliability of the overall system will be affected drastically.Hence rather than reactive fault-tolerant approaches,proactive measures are vital in scientific workflows.This work puts forth an attempt to con-centrate on the exploration issue of structuring a nature inspired metaheuristics-Intelligent Water Drops Algorithm(IWDA)combined with an efficient machine learning approach-Support Vector Regression(SVR)for task failure prognostica-tion which facilitates proactive fault-tolerance in the scheduling of scientific workflow applications.The failure prediction models in this study have been implemented through SVR-based machine learning approaches and the precision accuracy of prediction is optimized by IWDA and several performance metrics were evaluated on various benchmark workflows.The experimental results prove that the proposed proactive fault-tolerant approach performs better compared with the other existing techniques.展开更多
Heart failure is now widely spread throughout the world.Heart disease affects approximately 48%of the population.It is too expensive and also difficult to cure the disease.This research paper represents machine learni...Heart failure is now widely spread throughout the world.Heart disease affects approximately 48%of the population.It is too expensive and also difficult to cure the disease.This research paper represents machine learning models to predict heart failure.The fundamental concept is to compare the correctness of various Machine Learning(ML)algorithms and boost algorithms to improve models’accuracy for prediction.Some supervised algorithms like K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN),Support Vector Machine(SVM),Decision Trees(DT),Random Forest(RF),Logistic Regression(LR)are considered to achieve the best results.Some boosting algorithms like Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)and Cat-Boost are also used to improve the prediction using Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).This research also focuses on data visualization to identify patterns,trends,and outliers in a massive data set.Python and Scikit-learns are used for ML.Tensor Flow and Keras,along with Python,are used for ANN model train-ing.The DT and RF algorithms achieved the highest accuracy of 95%among the classifiers.Meanwhile,KNN obtained a second height accuracy of 93.33%.XGBoost had a gratified accuracy of 91.67%,SVM,CATBoost,and ANN had an accuracy of 90%,and LR had 88.33%accuracy.展开更多
Oil and gas pipelines are affected by many factors,such as pipe wall thinning and pipeline rupture.Accurate prediction of failure pressure of oil and gas pipelines can provide technical support for pipeline safety man...Oil and gas pipelines are affected by many factors,such as pipe wall thinning and pipeline rupture.Accurate prediction of failure pressure of oil and gas pipelines can provide technical support for pipeline safety management.Aiming at the shortcomings of the BP Neural Network(BPNN)model,such as low learning efficiency,sensitivity to initial weights,and easy falling into a local optimal state,an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm(ISSA)is adopted to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BPNN,and an ISSA-BPNN failure pressure prediction model for corroded pipelines is established.Taking 61 sets of pipelines blasting test data as an example,the prediction model was built and predicted by MATLAB software,and compared with the BPNN model,GA-BPNN model,and SSA-BPNN model.The results show that the MAPE of the ISSA-BPNN model is 3.4177%,and the R2 is 0.9880,both of which are superior to its comparison model.Using the ISSA-BPNN model has high prediction accuracy and stability,and can provide support for pipeline inspection and maintenance.展开更多
Ever since the research in machine learning gained traction in recent years,it has been employed to address challenges in a wide variety of domains,including mechanical devices.Most of the machine learning models are ...Ever since the research in machine learning gained traction in recent years,it has been employed to address challenges in a wide variety of domains,including mechanical devices.Most of the machine learning models are built on the assumption of a static learning environment,but in practical situations,the data generated by the process is dynamic.This evolution of the data is termed concept drift.This research paper presents an approach for predictingmechanical failure in real-time using incremental learning based on the statistically calculated parameters of mechanical equipment.The method proposed here is applicable to allmechanical devices that are susceptible to failure or operational degradation.The proposed method in this paper is equipped with the capacity to detect the drift in data generation and adaptation.The proposed approach evaluates the machine learning and deep learning models for their efficacy in handling the errors related to industrial machines due to their dynamic nature.It is observed that,in the settings without concept drift in the data,methods like SVM and Random Forest performed better compared to deep neural networks.However,this resulted in poor sensitivity for the smallest drift in the machine data reported as a drift.In this perspective,DNN generated the stable drift detection method;it reported an accuracy of 84%and an AUC of 0.87 while detecting only a single drift point,indicating the stability to performbetter in detecting and adapting to new data in the drifting environments under industrial measurement settings.展开更多
Polypropylene(PP) exhibits suboptimal creep resistance due to the presence of methyl groups on its main chain, leading to irregular chain segment distribution, diminished inter-chain interaction, and crystallinity. Th...Polypropylene(PP) exhibits suboptimal creep resistance due to the presence of methyl groups on its main chain, leading to irregular chain segment distribution, diminished inter-chain interaction, and crystallinity. This structural feature causes chain slippage in PP under stress,significantly constraining its service lifetime. In this study, thermally reduced graphene oxide(TrGO) nanosheets were incorporated into the PP matrix, yielding a nanocomposite with exceptional creep resistance performance. Results demonstrated that at a stress of 25 MPa, a 2.0 wt% TrGO content could enhance the creep failure lifetime of PP by 21.5 times compared to neat PP. Rheology, transmission electron microscopy(TEM),and scanning electron microscopy(SEM) characterization techniques were employed to analyze the mechanism of TrGO's influence on PP's creep behavior. It was observed that when TrGO content exceeded 1.0 wt%, an effective particle network structure formed within the PP matrix. This homogeneously dispersed TrGO-formed particle network structure restricted the migration and rearrangement of PP molecular chains, enabling prolonged stress resistance without structural failure. By combining the time-strain superposition method with the critical failure strain as a criterion, generalized creep compliance curves for PP and its composites were established, facilitating the prediction of material creep failure lifetimes, with a strong agreement between experimental and predicted lifetime values. This research proposes a novel strategy aimed at developing polypropylene materials and products with enhanced long-term stability and durability, thus extending service life, reducing failure risk, and broadening their potential across various application domains.展开更多
Hard disk drives(HDDs)serve as the primary storage devices in modern data centers.Once a failure occurs,it often leads to severe data loss,significantly degrading the reliability of storage systems.Numerous studies ha...Hard disk drives(HDDs)serve as the primary storage devices in modern data centers.Once a failure occurs,it often leads to severe data loss,significantly degrading the reliability of storage systems.Numerous studies have proposed machine learning-based HDD failure prediction models.However,the Self-Monitoring,Analysis,and Reporting Technology(SMART)attributes differ across HDD manufacturers.We define hard drives of the same brand and model as homogeneous HDD groups,and those from different brands or models as heterogeneous HDD groups.In practical engineering scenarios,a data center is often composed of a heterogeneous population of HDDs,spanning multiple vendors and models.Existing research predominantly focuses on homogeneous datasets,ignoring the model’s generalization capability across heterogeneous HDDs.As a result,HDD models with limited samples often suffer from poor training effectiveness and prediction performance.To address this issue,we investigate generalizable SMART predictors across heterogeneous HDD groups.By extracting time-series features within a fixed sliding time window,we propose a Heterogeneous Disk Failure Prediction Method based on Time Series Features(HDFPM)framework.This method is adaptable to HDD models with limited sample sizes,thereby enhancing its applicability and robustness across diverse drive populations.Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves an F1-score of 0.9518 when applied to two different Seagate HDD models,while maintaining the False Positive Rate(FPR)below 1%.After incorporating the Complexity-Ratio Dynamic Time Warping(CDTW)based feature enhancement method,the best prediction model achieves a True Positive Rate(TPR)of up to 0.93 between the two models.For next-day failure prediction across various Seagate models,the model achieves an F1-score of up to 0.8792.Moreover,the experimental results also show that within the same brand,the higher the proportion of shared SMART attributes across different models,the better the prediction performance.In addition,HDFPMdemonstrates the best stability andmost significant performance in heterogeneous environments.展开更多
Disk failures,the most common and major failures in storage systems,increase the risk of service interruption and data loss,and bring additional maintenance costs,which reduces system reliability.Disk failure predicti...Disk failures,the most common and major failures in storage systems,increase the risk of service interruption and data loss,and bring additional maintenance costs,which reduces system reliability.Disk failure prediction methods aim to forecast failures,initiating prompt data migration and disk replacement.Existing methods continuously optimize the models with different sampling methods and modeling algorithms.However,due to issues such as inaccurate sample labeling,insufficient data sampling,and improper sample segmentation,the predictive capabilities of existing models within the lookahead-window time are unstable and decline as the lookahead-window time increases.To address this,we propose LWCM(Lookahead-Window Constrained Model)to improve the predictability and stability of failure prediction models within the lookahead-window time.LWCM leverages dynamic sample relabeling methods based on lookahead-window time constraints and failure symptom durations to modify inaccurate sample labels.LWCM utilizes effective sample data by using the two-phase data sampling method including initial expectation sampling and subsequent segmented resampling.LWCM employs dynamic weighted optimization in backpropagation to enhance the predictability and stability of the disk failure prediction model.Experimental results show that LWCM has better failure prediction performance.The true positive and false positive rates surpass those of the offline-RF model by 38.7%and 92.4%,respectively.Furthermore,LWCM demonstrates its applicability across disk models while maintaining stability within the lookahead constraint window.展开更多
Power transformers,as essential equipment for electricity transmission,may fail due to insulation degradation.Predicting the failure rate of power transformers precisely is beneficial to decision-making.Currently,unce...Power transformers,as essential equipment for electricity transmission,may fail due to insulation degradation.Predicting the failure rate of power transformers precisely is beneficial to decision-making.Currently,uncertainties of the prediction have not been deeply discussed.Besides,prediction accuracy is not high enough.This paper proposes a decomposition-based Bayesian deep learning(BDL)method to predict the failure rate of power transformers.Both the model uncertainty related to distribution of the model's weights and the inherent uncertainty associated with random noise can be captured by BDL.Uncertainties of prediction results are depicted with confidence intervals.Moreover,prediction accuracy is improved using variational mode decomposition(VMD).Numerical experiments have been carried out based on oil chromatographic data of power transformers from the Chongqing grid to validate effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42172316)the Major National Science and Technology Project for Deep Earth(Grant No.2024ZD100380X)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province of China(2025JJ20030).
文摘This study examines how native pore structures and loading conditions influencethe fracture size distribution and the predictability of catastrophic failure in rocks.Four lithologies with distinct pore characteristics,i.e.granite,limestone,red sandstone,and marble,were tested under uniaxial compression and Brazilian splitting.Nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)was used to characterize pore structures,while acoustic emission(AE)monitoring captured the temporal evolution of microcracking.The relationships among pore properties,AE b-values,and failure predictability were systematically evaluated.Results show that the overall b-value is primarily controlled by native pore size rather than loading condition.Rocks with larger pores display higher b-value and greater temporal variability,whereas those with smaller pores exhibit lower and more stable b-value.To assess failure predictability,the AE count rate was incorporated into an inverse power law model.The model demonstrates higher predictive accuracy for high-porosity rocks.The average predicted failure time(t_(p))decreases monotonically with porosity:under uniaxial compression,t_(p)for granite,marble,limestone,and sandstone are 2.32,1.82,1.42,and 0.03,respectively;under Brazilian splitting,3.54,3.30,0.10,and 0.03.Among the four rock types,sandstone with the highest porosity exhibits the smallest discrepancy between predicted and actual failure time,whereas granite with the lowest porosity shows the largest.As porosity decreases,prediction accuracy progressively declines for limestone and marble.Overall,the findings indicate that native pore heterogeneity governs both fracture scaling behavior and failure predictability,and that these effects are largely independent of the loading conditions examined in this study.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.52104008&No.52274042)the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan,China (No.2024NSFSC0963)。
文摘The “well factory” mode's high-density well placement and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing technology enable efficient development of unconventional oil and gas resources.However,the deployment of platform wells in the “well factory” model results in small wellbore spacing,and the stress disturbances caused by fracturing operations may affect neighboring wells,leading to inter-well interference phenomena that cause casing deformation.This study investigates the issue of inter-well interference causing casing deformation or even failure during multi-stage hydraulic fracturing in the “well factory”model,and predicts high-risk locations for casing failure.A flow-mechanics coupled geomechanical finite element model with retaining geological stratification characteristics was established.Based on the theory of hydraulic fracturing-induced rock fragmentation and fluid action leading to the degradation of rock mechanical properties,the model simulated the four-dimensional evolution of multi-well fracturing areas over time and space,calculating the disturbance in the regional stress field caused by fracturing operations.Subsequently,the stress distribution of multiple well casings at different time points was calculated to predict high-risk locations for casing failure.The research results show that the redistribution of the stress field in the fracturing area increases the stress on the casing.The overlapping fracturing zones between wells cause significant stress interference,greatly increasing the risk of deformation and failure.By analyzing the Mises stress distribution of multi-well casings,high-risk locations for casing failure can be identified.The conclusion is that the key to preventing casing failure in platform wells in the “well factory” model is to optimize the spatial distribution of fracturing zones between wells and reasonably arrange well spacing.The study provides new insights and methods for predicting casing failure in unconventional oil and gas reservoirs and offers references for optimizing drilling and fracturing designs.
基金The authors appreciate generous supports from Canada Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council,McGill University Engine Centre as well as Faculty of Engineering.
文摘This article introduces a novel approach for tricone bit wear condition monitoring and failure prediction for surface mining applications.A successful bit health monitoring system is essential to achieve fully autonomous blasthole drilling.In this research in-situ vibration signals were analyzed in timefrequency domain and signals trend during tricone bit life span were investigated and introduced to support the development of artificial intelligence(AI)models.In addition to the signal statistical features,wavelet packet energy distribution proved to be a powerful indicator for bit wear assessment.Backpropagation artificial neural network(ANN)models were designed,trained and evaluated for bit state classification.Finally,an ANN architecture and feature vector were introduced to classify the bit condition and predict the bit failure.
基金This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Army Medical University,PLA,and the Approved No.of ethic committee is KY201936This work is supported by the National Key Research&Development Plan of China(2018YFC0116704)in data collectionIn addition,it is supported by Chongqing Technology Innovation and application research and development project(cstc2019jscx-msxmx0237)in the design of the study.
文摘The occurrence of perioperative heart failure will affect the quality of medical services and threaten the safety of patients.Existing methods depend on the judgment of doctors,the results are affected by many factors such as doctors’knowledge and experience.The accuracy is difficult to guarantee and has a serious lag.In this paper,a mixture prediction model is proposed for perioperative adverse events of heart failure,which combined with the advantages of the Deep Pyramid Convolutional Neural Networks(DPCNN)and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBOOST).The DPCNN was used to automatically extract features from patient’s diagnostic texts,and the text features were integrated with the preoperative examination and intraoperative monitoring values of patients,then the XGBOOST algorithm was used to construct the prediction model of heart failure.An experimental comparison was conducted on the model based on the data of patients with heart failure in southwest hospital from 2014 to 2018.The results showed that the DPCNN-XGBOOST model improved the predictive sensitivity of the model by 3%and 31%compared with the text-based DPCNN Model and the numeric-based XGBOOST Model.
基金supported in part by National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFB2103200)NSFC(61672108),Open Subject Funds of Science and Technology on Information Transmission and Dissemination in Communication Networks Laboratory(SKX182010049)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(5004193192019PTB-019)the Industrial Internet Innovation and Development Project 2018 of China.
文摘The development of cloud computing and virtualization technology has brought great challenges to the reliability of data center services.Data centers typically contain a large number of compute and storage nodes which may fail and affect the quality of service.Failure prediction is an important means of ensuring service availability.Predicting node failure in cloud-based data centers is challenging because the failure symptoms reflected have complex characteristics,and the distribution imbalance between the failure sample and the normal sample is widespread,resulting in inaccurate failure prediction.Targeting these challenges,this paper proposes a novel failure prediction method FP-STE(Failure Prediction based on Spatio-temporal Feature Extraction).Firstly,an improved recurrent neural network HW-GRU(Improved GRU based on HighWay network)and a convolutional neural network CNN are used to extract the temporal features and spatial features of multivariate data respectively to increase the discrimination of different types of failure symptoms which improves the accuracy of prediction.Then the intermediate results of the two models are added as features into SCSXGBoost to predict the possibility and the precise type of node failure in the future.SCS-XGBoost is an ensemble learning model that is improved by the integrated strategy of oversampling and cost-sensitive learning.Experimental results based on real data sets confirm the effectiveness and superiority of FP-STE.
基金This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities （No.2017JBM003）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.61575053, No.61504008）, and the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China （No.20130009120042）.
文摘Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.
文摘In the rolling stock sector, the ability to protect passengers, freight and services relies on heavy inborn maintenance. Initiating an accurate model suitable to foresee the change of attitude on components when operating rolling stock systems will assist in reducing lock down and favors heavy productivity. In that light, this paper showcases a suitable methodology to track degradation of components through the blinding of physic laws and artificial intelligent techniques. This model used to foresee failure deterioration rate and remaining useful life (RUL) speculation is case study to showcase its quality and perfection, within which behavioral data are obtained through simulated models initiated in Mathlab. For feature extraction and forecasting issues, different neuro-fuzzy inference systems are designed, learnt and authenticated with powerful outputs gained during this process.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundationof China (60701006 60804054 71071158)
文摘Failure prediction plays an important role for many tasks such as optimal resource management in large-scale system. However, accurately failure number prediction of repairable large-scale long-running computing （RLLC） is a challenge because of the reparability and large-scale. To address the challenge, a general Bayesian serial revision prediction method based on Bootstrap approach and moving average approach is put forward, which can make an accurately prediction for the failure number. To demonstrate the performance gains of our method, extensive experiments on the data of Los Alamos National Laboratory （LANL） cluster is implemented, which is a typical RLLC system. And experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of our method is 80.2 %, and it is a greatly improvement with 4 % compared with some typical methods. Finally, the managerial implications of the models are discussed.
文摘An approximate macroscopic yield criterion for anisotropic porous sheet metals is adopted in a failure prediction methodology that can be used to investigate the failure of sheet metals under forming operations. This failure prediction methodology is developed based on the Marciniak-Kuczynski approach by assuming a slightly higher void volume fraction inside randomly oriented imperfecte analysis. Here, a nonproportional deformation history including relative rotation of principal stretch directions is identified in a selected critical element of an aluminum sheet from a FEM fender forming simulation. Based on the failure prediction methodology, the failure of the critical sheet element is investigated under the non-proportional deformation history. The results show that thiven non-proportional deformation history.
文摘The reliability of electrical connectors has critical impact on electronic systems. It is usually characterized by failure rate prediction value according to standard MIL-HDBK-217(or GJB-299 C in Chinese) in engineering practice. Given to their limitations and mislead results, a new failure rate prediction models needs to be presented. The presented model aims at the mechanism of increase of film thickness which leads to the increase of contact resistance. The estimated failure rate value can be given at different environmental conditions,and some of the factors affecting the reliability are taken into account. Accelerated degradation test(ADT) was conducted on GJB599 III series electrical connector. The failure rate prediction model can be simply formed and convenient to calculate the expression of failure rate changing with time at various temperature and vibration conditions. This model gives an objective assessment in short time, which makes it convenient to be applied to the engineering.
基金The authors are very grateful to acknowledge their Deanship of Scientific Research at Prince sattam bin abdulaziz university,Saudi Arabia for technical and financial support in publishing this work successfully.
文摘Cloud data centers consume high volume of energy for processing and switching the servers among different modes.Virtual Machine(VM)migration enhances the performance of cloud servers in terms of energy efficiency,internal failures and availability.On the other end,energy utilization can be minimized by decreasing the number of active,underutilized sources which conversely reduces the dependability of the system.In VM migration process,the VMs are migrated from underutilized physical resources to other resources to minimize energy utilization and optimize the operations.In this view,the current study develops an Improved Metaheuristic Based Failure Prediction with Virtual Machine Migration Optimization(IMFP-VMMO)model in cloud environment.The major intention of the proposed IMFP-VMMO model is to reduce energy utilization with maximum performance in terms of failure prediction.To accomplish this,IMFPVMMO model employs Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)classification model at initial stage for effectual prediction of VM failures.At the same time,VMs are optimally migrated using Quasi-Oppositional Artificial Fish Swarm Algorithm(QO-AFSA)which in turn reduces the energy consumption.The performance of the proposed IMFP-VMMO technique was validated and the results established the enhanced performance of the proposed model.The comparative study outcomes confirmed the better performance of the proposed IMFP-VMMO model over recent approaches.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Programme of China （ No. 2007AA01Z401 ） and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 90718003, 60973027）.
文摘In order to achieve failure prediction without manual intervention for distributed systems, a novel failure feature analysis and extraction approach to automate failure prediction is proposed. Compared with the traditional methods which focus on building heuristic rules or models, the autonomic prediction approach analyzes the nonlinear correlation of failure features by recognizing failure patterns. Failure data are sorted according to the nonlinear correlation and failure signature is proposed for autonomic prediction. In addition, the Manifold Learning algorithm named supervised locally linear embedding is applied to achieve feature extraction. Based on the runtime monitoring of failure metrics, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method has better performance in terms of both correlation recognition precision and feature extraction quality and thus it can be used to design efficient autonomic failure prediction for distributed systems.
文摘Scientific workflows have gained the emerging attention in sophisti-cated large-scale scientific problem-solving environments.The pay-per-use model of cloud,its scalability and dynamic deployment enables it suited for executing scientific workflow applications.Since the cloud is not a utopian environment,failures are inevitable that may result in experiencingfluctuations in the delivered performance.Though a single task failure occurs in workflow based applications,due to its task dependency nature,the reliability of the overall system will be affected drastically.Hence rather than reactive fault-tolerant approaches,proactive measures are vital in scientific workflows.This work puts forth an attempt to con-centrate on the exploration issue of structuring a nature inspired metaheuristics-Intelligent Water Drops Algorithm(IWDA)combined with an efficient machine learning approach-Support Vector Regression(SVR)for task failure prognostica-tion which facilitates proactive fault-tolerance in the scheduling of scientific workflow applications.The failure prediction models in this study have been implemented through SVR-based machine learning approaches and the precision accuracy of prediction is optimized by IWDA and several performance metrics were evaluated on various benchmark workflows.The experimental results prove that the proposed proactive fault-tolerant approach performs better compared with the other existing techniques.
基金Taif University Researchers Supporting Project Number(TURSP-2020/73)Taif University,Taif,Saudi Arabia.
文摘Heart failure is now widely spread throughout the world.Heart disease affects approximately 48%of the population.It is too expensive and also difficult to cure the disease.This research paper represents machine learning models to predict heart failure.The fundamental concept is to compare the correctness of various Machine Learning(ML)algorithms and boost algorithms to improve models’accuracy for prediction.Some supervised algorithms like K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN),Support Vector Machine(SVM),Decision Trees(DT),Random Forest(RF),Logistic Regression(LR)are considered to achieve the best results.Some boosting algorithms like Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)and Cat-Boost are also used to improve the prediction using Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).This research also focuses on data visualization to identify patterns,trends,and outliers in a massive data set.Python and Scikit-learns are used for ML.Tensor Flow and Keras,along with Python,are used for ANN model train-ing.The DT and RF algorithms achieved the highest accuracy of 95%among the classifiers.Meanwhile,KNN obtained a second height accuracy of 93.33%.XGBoost had a gratified accuracy of 91.67%,SVM,CATBoost,and ANN had an accuracy of 90%,and LR had 88.33%accuracy.
文摘Oil and gas pipelines are affected by many factors,such as pipe wall thinning and pipeline rupture.Accurate prediction of failure pressure of oil and gas pipelines can provide technical support for pipeline safety management.Aiming at the shortcomings of the BP Neural Network(BPNN)model,such as low learning efficiency,sensitivity to initial weights,and easy falling into a local optimal state,an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm(ISSA)is adopted to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BPNN,and an ISSA-BPNN failure pressure prediction model for corroded pipelines is established.Taking 61 sets of pipelines blasting test data as an example,the prediction model was built and predicted by MATLAB software,and compared with the BPNN model,GA-BPNN model,and SSA-BPNN model.The results show that the MAPE of the ISSA-BPNN model is 3.4177%,and the R2 is 0.9880,both of which are superior to its comparison model.Using the ISSA-BPNN model has high prediction accuracy and stability,and can provide support for pipeline inspection and maintenance.
文摘Ever since the research in machine learning gained traction in recent years,it has been employed to address challenges in a wide variety of domains,including mechanical devices.Most of the machine learning models are built on the assumption of a static learning environment,but in practical situations,the data generated by the process is dynamic.This evolution of the data is termed concept drift.This research paper presents an approach for predictingmechanical failure in real-time using incremental learning based on the statistically calculated parameters of mechanical equipment.The method proposed here is applicable to allmechanical devices that are susceptible to failure or operational degradation.The proposed method in this paper is equipped with the capacity to detect the drift in data generation and adaptation.The proposed approach evaluates the machine learning and deep learning models for their efficacy in handling the errors related to industrial machines due to their dynamic nature.It is observed that,in the settings without concept drift in the data,methods like SVM and Random Forest performed better compared to deep neural networks.However,this resulted in poor sensitivity for the smallest drift in the machine data reported as a drift.In this perspective,DNN generated the stable drift detection method;it reported an accuracy of 84%and an AUC of 0.87 while detecting only a single drift point,indicating the stability to performbetter in detecting and adapting to new data in the drifting environments under industrial measurement settings.
基金financially supported by Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province (No. 2022NSFSC0296)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51903118and U19A2096)State Key Laboratory of Polymer Materials Engineering (No. sklpme2020-1-07, Sichuan University)。
文摘Polypropylene(PP) exhibits suboptimal creep resistance due to the presence of methyl groups on its main chain, leading to irregular chain segment distribution, diminished inter-chain interaction, and crystallinity. This structural feature causes chain slippage in PP under stress,significantly constraining its service lifetime. In this study, thermally reduced graphene oxide(TrGO) nanosheets were incorporated into the PP matrix, yielding a nanocomposite with exceptional creep resistance performance. Results demonstrated that at a stress of 25 MPa, a 2.0 wt% TrGO content could enhance the creep failure lifetime of PP by 21.5 times compared to neat PP. Rheology, transmission electron microscopy(TEM),and scanning electron microscopy(SEM) characterization techniques were employed to analyze the mechanism of TrGO's influence on PP's creep behavior. It was observed that when TrGO content exceeded 1.0 wt%, an effective particle network structure formed within the PP matrix. This homogeneously dispersed TrGO-formed particle network structure restricted the migration and rearrangement of PP molecular chains, enabling prolonged stress resistance without structural failure. By combining the time-strain superposition method with the critical failure strain as a criterion, generalized creep compliance curves for PP and its composites were established, facilitating the prediction of material creep failure lifetimes, with a strong agreement between experimental and predicted lifetime values. This research proposes a novel strategy aimed at developing polypropylene materials and products with enhanced long-term stability and durability, thus extending service life, reducing failure risk, and broadening their potential across various application domains.
基金supported by the Tianjin Manufacturing High Quality Development Special Foundation(No.20232185)the Roycom Foundation(No.70306901).
文摘Hard disk drives(HDDs)serve as the primary storage devices in modern data centers.Once a failure occurs,it often leads to severe data loss,significantly degrading the reliability of storage systems.Numerous studies have proposed machine learning-based HDD failure prediction models.However,the Self-Monitoring,Analysis,and Reporting Technology(SMART)attributes differ across HDD manufacturers.We define hard drives of the same brand and model as homogeneous HDD groups,and those from different brands or models as heterogeneous HDD groups.In practical engineering scenarios,a data center is often composed of a heterogeneous population of HDDs,spanning multiple vendors and models.Existing research predominantly focuses on homogeneous datasets,ignoring the model’s generalization capability across heterogeneous HDDs.As a result,HDD models with limited samples often suffer from poor training effectiveness and prediction performance.To address this issue,we investigate generalizable SMART predictors across heterogeneous HDD groups.By extracting time-series features within a fixed sliding time window,we propose a Heterogeneous Disk Failure Prediction Method based on Time Series Features(HDFPM)framework.This method is adaptable to HDD models with limited sample sizes,thereby enhancing its applicability and robustness across diverse drive populations.Experimental results show that the proposed model achieves an F1-score of 0.9518 when applied to two different Seagate HDD models,while maintaining the False Positive Rate(FPR)below 1%.After incorporating the Complexity-Ratio Dynamic Time Warping(CDTW)based feature enhancement method,the best prediction model achieves a True Positive Rate(TPR)of up to 0.93 between the two models.For next-day failure prediction across various Seagate models,the model achieves an F1-score of up to 0.8792.Moreover,the experimental results also show that within the same brand,the higher the proportion of shared SMART attributes across different models,the better the prediction performance.In addition,HDFPMdemonstrates the best stability andmost significant performance in heterogeneous environments.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under Grant No.2023YFB4502801.
文摘Disk failures,the most common and major failures in storage systems,increase the risk of service interruption and data loss,and bring additional maintenance costs,which reduces system reliability.Disk failure prediction methods aim to forecast failures,initiating prompt data migration and disk replacement.Existing methods continuously optimize the models with different sampling methods and modeling algorithms.However,due to issues such as inaccurate sample labeling,insufficient data sampling,and improper sample segmentation,the predictive capabilities of existing models within the lookahead-window time are unstable and decline as the lookahead-window time increases.To address this,we propose LWCM(Lookahead-Window Constrained Model)to improve the predictability and stability of failure prediction models within the lookahead-window time.LWCM leverages dynamic sample relabeling methods based on lookahead-window time constraints and failure symptom durations to modify inaccurate sample labels.LWCM utilizes effective sample data by using the two-phase data sampling method including initial expectation sampling and subsequent segmented resampling.LWCM employs dynamic weighted optimization in backpropagation to enhance the predictability and stability of the disk failure prediction model.Experimental results show that LWCM has better failure prediction performance.The true positive and false positive rates surpass those of the offline-RF model by 38.7%and 92.4%,respectively.Furthermore,LWCM demonstrates its applicability across disk models while maintaining stability within the lookahead constraint window.
文摘Power transformers,as essential equipment for electricity transmission,may fail due to insulation degradation.Predicting the failure rate of power transformers precisely is beneficial to decision-making.Currently,uncertainties of the prediction have not been deeply discussed.Besides,prediction accuracy is not high enough.This paper proposes a decomposition-based Bayesian deep learning(BDL)method to predict the failure rate of power transformers.Both the model uncertainty related to distribution of the model's weights and the inherent uncertainty associated with random noise can be captured by BDL.Uncertainties of prediction results are depicted with confidence intervals.Moreover,prediction accuracy is improved using variational mode decomposition(VMD).Numerical experiments have been carried out based on oil chromatographic data of power transformers from the Chongqing grid to validate effectiveness of the proposed method.
