We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm...We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.展开更多
This thesis is to study spatial effect of education output on economic growth through the use of spatial measurement technique. According to the study: there’s the presence of spatial spillover effects in human capit...This thesis is to study spatial effect of education output on economic growth through the use of spatial measurement technique. According to the study: there’s the presence of spatial spillover effects in human capital, economic growth, and others;in previous years, human capital depended on mainly the employers with junior school education or below;in recent years, with the reduction of employers with junior school education or below, employers with regular higher education can best promote the economic growth. However, it’s very difficult for human capital with vocational education to promote economic growth, especially in recent years. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term economic growth, China should focus on culturing professional talents and put more resources into the development of vocational education while developing the higher education.展开更多
Input/output devices for flash memory are exposed to gamma ray irradiation. Total ionizing dose has been shown great influence on characteristic degradation of transistors with different sizes. In this paper, we obser...Input/output devices for flash memory are exposed to gamma ray irradiation. Total ionizing dose has been shown great influence on characteristic degradation of transistors with different sizes. In this paper, we observed a larger increase of off-state leakage in the short channel device than in long one. However, a larger threshold voltage shift is observed for the narrow width device than for the wide one, which is well known as the radiation induced narrow channel effect. The radiation induced charge in the shallow trench isolation oxide influences the electric field of the narrow channel device. Also, the drain bias dependence of the off-state leakage after irradiation is observed, which is called the radiation enhanced drain induced barrier lowing effect. Finally, we found that substrate bias voltage can suppress the off-state leakage, while leading to more obvious hump effect.展开更多
Based on provincial panel data of water footprint and grey water footprint, and with the help of data envelopment analysis model considering and without considering the unde- sirable output, this paper estimates the w...Based on provincial panel data of water footprint and grey water footprint, and with the help of data envelopment analysis model considering and without considering the unde- sirable output, this paper estimates the water resources utilization efficiency in China from 1997 to 2011. The spatial weighting matrix based on economy-spatial distance function is established to discuss spatial autocorrelation of water resources utilization efficiency. With the help of absolute/3-convergence model, this paper concludes that there exists/%convergence in the water resources utilization efficiency. Under the conditions of considering and without considering the undesirable output, it takes about 52.6 and 5.6 years respectively to achieve the extent of half of convergence. By mean of the spatial Durbin econometric model, this paper studies spatial spillover effects of the provincial water resources utilization efficiency in China. The results are as follows. 1） With considering and without considering the undesir- able output, there is significant spatial correlation in provincial water resource efficiency in China. 2） Under the two cases, the spatial autoregressive coefficients （p） are 0.278 and 0.507 respectively, at 1% significance level. There exist the spatial spillover effects of provin- cial water resources utilization efficiency. 3） With considering the undesirable output, these factors of the education funds, the transportation infrastructure, and the industrial and agri- cultural water consumption proportion have positive impacts. These factors of foreign direct investment, the industry value-added water consumption per ten thousand yuan, per capita water consumption, and the total precipitation have negative impacts. 4） Without considering the undesirable output, the factor of GDP per laborer has a greater positive significant influ- ence on the water resources utilization efficiency. However the facts of industry value-added water consumption in ten thousand yuan and the transportation infrastructure have no sig- nificant influence. 5） Regardless of undesirable output of water resources utilization efficiency the assessment of the present real water resources utilization in China will be distorted and policy-making will be misled. The water efficiency measure considering environmental factors （such as gray water footprint） is more reasonable.展开更多
Based on the multi-regional input-output analysis, this paper improves the four traditional input-output formulas about exports resulting in multi-regional carbon emissions spatial effects which include direct effect,...Based on the multi-regional input-output analysis, this paper improves the four traditional input-output formulas about exports resulting in multi-regional carbon emissions spatial effects which include direct effect, indirect effect, spillover effect and feedback effect. And the latter two formulas are to measure the bidirectional influences of carbon emissions induced by regional exports between two regions. The results suggest that the direct effects of Chinese eight regions induced by national exports decreased from 1997 to 2010, and the indirect effects induced by national exports also decreased except the northern coastal region and the northwestern region in China. During this period, most of Chinese coastal regions had strong spillover effects induced by their own exports. The northern coastal region and the eastern coastal region had stronger feedback effects, while the southern coastal region had weaker feedback effects and Beijing-Tianjin region had the weakest feedback effect induced by their exports. All of the inland regions had strong feedback effects, especially for Northwest and Central China, induced by their exports. More attention should be paid to the inter-regional joint efforts in order to effectively achieve Chinese national carbon-reduction target.展开更多
As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and nation...As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government's tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.展开更多
基金The author is infinitely thankful to his friend and colleague M.Rubinstein for valuable discussions and an invariable interest to his work.The author is also thankful to C.Miller for his high estimation of the author’s efforts.Of course,all errors are author’s full responsibility.
文摘We use Extended Merton model(EMM)for estimating the firm’s credit risks in the presence of inflation.We show quantitatively that inflation is an influential factor making either a benign or adverse effect on the firm’s survival,supporting at the microeconomic level New Keynesian findings of the nonlinear inflation effect on output growth.Lower inflation increasing the firm’s expected rate of return can raise its mean year returns and decrease its default probability.Higher inflation,decreasing the expected rate return,makes the opposite effect.The magnitude of the adverse effect depends on the firm strength:for a steady firm,this effect is small,whereas for a weaker firm,it can be fatal.EMM is the only model taking account of inflation.It can be useful for banks or insurance companies estimating credit risks of commercial borrowers over the debt maturity,and for the firm’s management planning long-term business operations.
文摘This thesis is to study spatial effect of education output on economic growth through the use of spatial measurement technique. According to the study: there’s the presence of spatial spillover effects in human capital, economic growth, and others;in previous years, human capital depended on mainly the employers with junior school education or below;in recent years, with the reduction of employers with junior school education or below, employers with regular higher education can best promote the economic growth. However, it’s very difficult for human capital with vocational education to promote economic growth, especially in recent years. Therefore, from the perspective of long-term economic growth, China should focus on culturing professional talents and put more resources into the development of vocational education while developing the higher education.
文摘Input/output devices for flash memory are exposed to gamma ray irradiation. Total ionizing dose has been shown great influence on characteristic degradation of transistors with different sizes. In this paper, we observed a larger increase of off-state leakage in the short channel device than in long one. However, a larger threshold voltage shift is observed for the narrow width device than for the wide one, which is well known as the radiation induced narrow channel effect. The radiation induced charge in the shallow trench isolation oxide influences the electric field of the narrow channel device. Also, the drain bias dependence of the off-state leakage after irradiation is observed, which is called the radiation enhanced drain induced barrier lowing effect. Finally, we found that substrate bias voltage can suppress the off-state leakage, while leading to more obvious hump effect.
基金National Social Science Foundation of China, No. 11BJY063 Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University, No.NECT-13-0844
文摘Based on provincial panel data of water footprint and grey water footprint, and with the help of data envelopment analysis model considering and without considering the unde- sirable output, this paper estimates the water resources utilization efficiency in China from 1997 to 2011. The spatial weighting matrix based on economy-spatial distance function is established to discuss spatial autocorrelation of water resources utilization efficiency. With the help of absolute/3-convergence model, this paper concludes that there exists/%convergence in the water resources utilization efficiency. Under the conditions of considering and without considering the undesirable output, it takes about 52.6 and 5.6 years respectively to achieve the extent of half of convergence. By mean of the spatial Durbin econometric model, this paper studies spatial spillover effects of the provincial water resources utilization efficiency in China. The results are as follows. 1） With considering and without considering the undesir- able output, there is significant spatial correlation in provincial water resource efficiency in China. 2） Under the two cases, the spatial autoregressive coefficients （p） are 0.278 and 0.507 respectively, at 1% significance level. There exist the spatial spillover effects of provin- cial water resources utilization efficiency. 3） With considering the undesirable output, these factors of the education funds, the transportation infrastructure, and the industrial and agri- cultural water consumption proportion have positive impacts. These factors of foreign direct investment, the industry value-added water consumption per ten thousand yuan, per capita water consumption, and the total precipitation have negative impacts. 4） Without considering the undesirable output, the factor of GDP per laborer has a greater positive significant influ- ence on the water resources utilization efficiency. However the facts of industry value-added water consumption in ten thousand yuan and the transportation infrastructure have no sig- nificant influence. 5） Regardless of undesirable output of water resources utilization efficiency the assessment of the present real water resources utilization in China will be distorted and policy-making will be misled. The water efficiency measure considering environmental factors （such as gray water footprint） is more reasonable.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41201129, No.41125005
文摘Based on the multi-regional input-output analysis, this paper improves the four traditional input-output formulas about exports resulting in multi-regional carbon emissions spatial effects which include direct effect, indirect effect, spillover effect and feedback effect. And the latter two formulas are to measure the bidirectional influences of carbon emissions induced by regional exports between two regions. The results suggest that the direct effects of Chinese eight regions induced by national exports decreased from 1997 to 2010, and the indirect effects induced by national exports also decreased except the northern coastal region and the northwestern region in China. During this period, most of Chinese coastal regions had strong spillover effects induced by their own exports. The northern coastal region and the eastern coastal region had stronger feedback effects, while the southern coastal region had weaker feedback effects and Beijing-Tianjin region had the weakest feedback effect induced by their exports. All of the inland regions had strong feedback effects, especially for Northwest and Central China, induced by their exports. More attention should be paid to the inter-regional joint efforts in order to effectively achieve Chinese national carbon-reduction target.
基金Supported by National Social Science Fund Project(11BJY113)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(SWU 1509516&1509437)
文摘As a basic industry,agriculture has a far-reaching impact on national economy. Based on input-output tables of China in 2005 and2010,this paper gives a deep insight into the relationship between agriculture and national economy and its macroeconomic effects by the methods of input-output analysis,industrial correlation and macroeconomic effect analysis. The results show that the agricultural development is highly dependent on the national economy,but makes low contribution; agriculture contributes to promoting employment and improving the structure of national income distribution; despite the government's tax incentive,the agricultural equipments are updated slowly,and the corporate profits are at low level; agricultural export effect is far below the average industry level,but the import effect increases over the years,and final products are often used for domestic consumption. Finally,we set forth recommendations for improving the development of agriculture and national economy.
