Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined globalranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted tostudy the impacts of realistic versus global r...Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined globalranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted tostudy the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibrationand uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts byemploying Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM wasdesigned to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within acommon modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complexmosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem,importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing. The model forcing data and surface flux datawere collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. Foreach site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well asrealistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parametersets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges givessimilar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce someunreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simplemode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and modelcomplexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posteriorprobability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heatfluxes. Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has moresignificant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.展开更多
The optimality of two-stage state estimation with ARMA model random bias is studiedin this paper. Firstly, the optimal augmented state Kalman filter is given; Secondly, the two-stageKalman estimator is designed. Final...The optimality of two-stage state estimation with ARMA model random bias is studiedin this paper. Firstly, the optimal augmented state Kalman filter is given; Secondly, the two-stageKalman estimator is designed. Finally, under an algebraic constraint condition, the equivalencebetween the two-stage Kalman estimator and the optimal augmented state Kalman filter is proved.Thereby, the algebraic constraint conditions of optimal two-stage state estimation in the presence ofARMA model random bias are given.展开更多
Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution g...Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers.展开更多
An HIV model was considered. The parameters of the model are estimated by adjoint dada assimilation method. The results showed the method is valid. This method has potential application to a wide variety of models in ...An HIV model was considered. The parameters of the model are estimated by adjoint dada assimilation method. The results showed the method is valid. This method has potential application to a wide variety of models in biomathematics.展开更多
On-line estimation of unmeasurable biological variables is important in fermentation processes,directly influencing the optimal control performance of the fermentation system as well as the quality and yield of the ta...On-line estimation of unmeasurable biological variables is important in fermentation processes,directly influencing the optimal control performance of the fermentation system as well as the quality and yield of the targeted product.In this study,a novel strategy for state estimation of fed-batch fermentation process is proposed.By combining a simple and reliable mechanistic dynamic model with the sample-based regressive measurement model,a state space model is developed.An improved algorithm,swarm energy conservation particle swarm optimization(SECPSO) ,is presented for the parameter identification in the mechanistic model,and the support vector machines(SVM) method is adopted to establish the nonlinear measurement model.The unscented Kalman filter(UKF) is designed for the state space model to reduce the disturbances of the noises in the fermentation process.The proposed on-line estimation method is demonstrated by the simulation experiments of a penicillin fed-batch fermentation process.展开更多
For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For ...For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time.Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation(Fast MMAE)algorithm,the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration.Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight(LOS)separation angle of two interceptors,an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance.Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion,Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately.The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.展开更多
To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a deriv...To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.展开更多
The objective of reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)is to minimize the optimization objective while satisfying the corresponding reliability requirements.However,the nested loop characteristic reduces the effi...The objective of reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)is to minimize the optimization objective while satisfying the corresponding reliability requirements.However,the nested loop characteristic reduces the efficiency of RBDO algorithm,which hinders their application to high-dimensional engineering problems.To address these issues,this paper proposes an efficient decoupled RBDO method combining high dimensional model representation(HDMR)and the weight-point estimation method(WPEM).First,we decouple the RBDO model using HDMR and WPEM.Second,Lagrange interpolation is used to approximate a univariate function.Finally,based on the results of the first two steps,the original nested loop reliability optimization model is completely transformed into a deterministic design optimization model that can be solved by a series of mature constrained optimization methods without any additional calculations.Two numerical examples of a planar 10-bar structure and an aviation hydraulic piping system with 28 design variables are analyzed to illustrate the performance and practicability of the proposed method.展开更多
In cutting tool temperature experiment, a large number of related data could be available. In order to define the relationship among the experiment data, the nonlinear regressive curve of cutting tool temperature must...In cutting tool temperature experiment, a large number of related data could be available. In order to define the relationship among the experiment data, the nonlinear regressive curve of cutting tool temperature must be constructed based on the data. This paper proposes the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm for estimating the parameters such a curve. The PSO algorithm is an evolutional method based on a very simple concept. Comparison of PSO results with those of GA and LS methods showed that the PSO algorithm is more effective for estimating the parameters of the above curve.展开更多
The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In th...The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In this process, source parameters were treated as normal random variables, and the Fortran code of hybrid slip model was modified by adding a random number generator so that the code could generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for a given magnitude.Furth...展开更多
If the components in a component-based software system come from different sources, the characteristics of the components may be different. Therefore, evaluating the reliability of a component-based system with a fixe...If the components in a component-based software system come from different sources, the characteristics of the components may be different. Therefore, evaluating the reliability of a component-based system with a fixed model for all components will not be reasonable. To solve this problem, this paper combines a single reliability growth model with an architecture-based reliability model, and proposes an optimal selecting approach. First, the most appropriate model of each component is selected according to the historical reliability data of the component, so that the evaluation deviation is the smallest. Then, system reliability is evaluated according to both the relationships among components and the using frequency of each component. As the approach takes into account the historical data and the using frequency of each component, the evaluation and prediction results are more accurate than those of using a single model.展开更多
Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on t...Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.展开更多
模型辅助检测概率(model-assisted probability of detection,MAPoD)和灵敏度分析对于量化涡流无损检测(eddy current nondestructive testing,ECNDT)系统的检测能力非常重要。由于不确定性在涡流无损检测的MAPoD和SA问题中的传播,传统...模型辅助检测概率(model-assisted probability of detection,MAPoD)和灵敏度分析对于量化涡流无损检测(eddy current nondestructive testing,ECNDT)系统的检测能力非常重要。由于不确定性在涡流无损检测的MAPoD和SA问题中的传播,传统基于实验方法和物理仿真模型对该问题的分析需要耗费大量的时间和人力成本,为了降低这些成本,提出基于粒子群算法(particle swarm optimization,PSO)的支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)模型取代传统的实验方法以及物理仿真模型,对涡流无损检测模型的响应进行预测,从而加速MAPoD和SA问题的分析。此外,创新性地将网格搜索、随机搜索、模拟退火算法和PSO等优化算法与SVR相结合,研究不同的优化算法对SVR的关键参数优化的精度和效率,验证PSO相较于其他优化算法的性能优势。最后,将PSO-SVR模型应用于ECNDT算例中,对表面裂缝长度的不确定性进行MAPoD和SA的分析。结果表明,所提算法在保证求解精度的同时,加速了涡流无损检测系统的MAPoD和SA问题的研究,并减少了计算开销。在计算量方面,对这两个问题的求解,平均分别仅需纯物理模型计算量的3.5%和0.06%。展开更多
为实现环境激励下复杂钢结构的损伤预警,提出一种基于粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,简称PSO)的支持向量回归(support vector regression,简称SVR)-时间序列(auto-regressive and moving average model,简称ARMA)组合模型用...为实现环境激励下复杂钢结构的损伤预警,提出一种基于粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,简称PSO)的支持向量回归(support vector regression,简称SVR)-时间序列(auto-regressive and moving average model,简称ARMA)组合模型用于频率预测,并结合均值控制图法将其用于复杂钢结构的损伤预警中。所提出频率预测模型的准确性和有效性采用潍坊市白浪河摩天轮钢结构实测数据进行验证。验证结果表明:与基本SVR模型、SVR-ARMA模型和PSO-SVR模型相比,所提模型具有更高的泛化能力和预测精度;在白浪河摩天轮钢结构的损伤预警中,基于粒子群优化的SVR-ARMA组合模型可检出由损伤造成模态频率轻微的异常变化,具有较强的损伤敏感性。研究成果可为环境激励下复杂钢结构的损伤预警提供参考。展开更多
文摘Most previous land-surface model calibration studies have defined globalranges for their parameters to search for optimal parameter sets. Little work has been conducted tostudy the impacts of realistic versus global ranges as well as model complexities on the calibrationand uncertainty estimates. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate these impacts byemploying Bayesian Stochastic Inversion (BSI) to the Chameleon Surface Model (CHASM). The CHASM wasdesigned to explore the general aspects of land-surface energy balance representation within acommon modeling framework that can be run from a simple energy balance formulation to a complexmosaic type structure. The BSI is an uncertainty estimation technique based on Bayes theorem,importance sampling, and very fast simulated annealing. The model forcing data and surface flux datawere collected at seven sites representing a wide range of climate and vegetation conditions. Foreach site, four experiments were performed with simple and complex CHASM formulations as well asrealistic and global parameter ranges. Twenty eight experiments were conducted and 50 000 parametersets were used for each run. The results show that the use of global and realistic ranges givessimilar simulations for both modes for most sites, but the global ranges tend to produce someunreasonable optimal parameter values. Comparison of simple and complex modes shows that the simplemode has more parameters with unreasonable optimal values. Use of parameter ranges and modelcomplexities have significant impacts on frequency distribution of parameters, marginal posteriorprobability density functions, and estimates of uncertainty of simulated sensible and latent heatfluxes. Comparison between model complexity and parameter ranges shows that the former has moresignificant impacts on parameter and uncertainty estimations.
文摘The optimality of two-stage state estimation with ARMA model random bias is studiedin this paper. Firstly, the optimal augmented state Kalman filter is given; Secondly, the two-stageKalman estimator is designed. Finally, under an algebraic constraint condition, the equivalencebetween the two-stage Kalman estimator and the optimal augmented state Kalman filter is proved.Thereby, the algebraic constraint conditions of optimal two-stage state estimation in the presence ofARMA model random bias are given.
基金supported via funding from Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University project number(PSAU/2025/R/1446).
文摘Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers.
文摘An HIV model was considered. The parameters of the model are estimated by adjoint dada assimilation method. The results showed the method is valid. This method has potential application to a wide variety of models in biomathematics.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China（20476007 20676013）
文摘On-line estimation of unmeasurable biological variables is important in fermentation processes,directly influencing the optimal control performance of the fermentation system as well as the quality and yield of the targeted product.In this study,a novel strategy for state estimation of fed-batch fermentation process is proposed.By combining a simple and reliable mechanistic dynamic model with the sample-based regressive measurement model,a state space model is developed.An improved algorithm,swarm energy conservation particle swarm optimization(SECPSO) ,is presented for the parameter identification in the mechanistic model,and the support vector machines(SVM) method is adopted to establish the nonlinear measurement model.The unscented Kalman filter(UKF) is designed for the state space model to reduce the disturbances of the noises in the fermentation process.The proposed on-line estimation method is demonstrated by the simulation experiments of a penicillin fed-batch fermentation process.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(NNSF)of China under grant no.61673386,62073335the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M613201,2019T120944).
文摘For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time.Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation(Fast MMAE)algorithm,the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration.Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight(LOS)separation angle of two interceptors,an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance.Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion,Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately.The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42174011 and No.41874001).
文摘To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.
基金supported by the Innovation Fund Project of the Gansu Education Department(Grant No.2021B-099).
文摘The objective of reliability-based design optimization(RBDO)is to minimize the optimization objective while satisfying the corresponding reliability requirements.However,the nested loop characteristic reduces the efficiency of RBDO algorithm,which hinders their application to high-dimensional engineering problems.To address these issues,this paper proposes an efficient decoupled RBDO method combining high dimensional model representation(HDMR)and the weight-point estimation method(WPEM).First,we decouple the RBDO model using HDMR and WPEM.Second,Lagrange interpolation is used to approximate a univariate function.Finally,based on the results of the first two steps,the original nested loop reliability optimization model is completely transformed into a deterministic design optimization model that can be solved by a series of mature constrained optimization methods without any additional calculations.Two numerical examples of a planar 10-bar structure and an aviation hydraulic piping system with 28 design variables are analyzed to illustrate the performance and practicability of the proposed method.
文摘In cutting tool temperature experiment, a large number of related data could be available. In order to define the relationship among the experiment data, the nonlinear regressive curve of cutting tool temperature must be constructed based on the data. This paper proposes the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm for estimating the parameters such a curve. The PSO algorithm is an evolutional method based on a very simple concept. Comparison of PSO results with those of GA and LS methods showed that the PSO algorithm is more effective for estimating the parameters of the above curve.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 50778058 and No. 90715038)National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2006BAC13B02)Major State Basic Research Development Program of China ("973" Program, No. 2008CB425802)
文摘The hybrid slip model used to generate a finite fault model for near-field ground motion estimation and seismic hazard assessment was improved to express the uncertainty of the source form of a future earthquake.In this process, source parameters were treated as normal random variables, and the Fortran code of hybrid slip model was modified by adding a random number generator so that the code could generate many finite fault models with different dimensions and slip distributions for a given magnitude.Furth...
文摘If the components in a component-based software system come from different sources, the characteristics of the components may be different. Therefore, evaluating the reliability of a component-based system with a fixed model for all components will not be reasonable. To solve this problem, this paper combines a single reliability growth model with an architecture-based reliability model, and proposes an optimal selecting approach. First, the most appropriate model of each component is selected according to the historical reliability data of the component, so that the evaluation deviation is the smallest. Then, system reliability is evaluated according to both the relationships among components and the using frequency of each component. As the approach takes into account the historical data and the using frequency of each component, the evaluation and prediction results are more accurate than those of using a single model.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61070009)the National Science and Technology Support Plan (2012BAH25F02)+2 种基金the Project of Jingdezhen Science and Technology Bureau (2011-1-47)the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (2009GZS0065)the Youth Science Foundation of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education (GJJ12514)
文摘Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.
文摘模型辅助检测概率(model-assisted probability of detection,MAPoD)和灵敏度分析对于量化涡流无损检测(eddy current nondestructive testing,ECNDT)系统的检测能力非常重要。由于不确定性在涡流无损检测的MAPoD和SA问题中的传播,传统基于实验方法和物理仿真模型对该问题的分析需要耗费大量的时间和人力成本,为了降低这些成本,提出基于粒子群算法(particle swarm optimization,PSO)的支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)模型取代传统的实验方法以及物理仿真模型,对涡流无损检测模型的响应进行预测,从而加速MAPoD和SA问题的分析。此外,创新性地将网格搜索、随机搜索、模拟退火算法和PSO等优化算法与SVR相结合,研究不同的优化算法对SVR的关键参数优化的精度和效率,验证PSO相较于其他优化算法的性能优势。最后,将PSO-SVR模型应用于ECNDT算例中,对表面裂缝长度的不确定性进行MAPoD和SA的分析。结果表明,所提算法在保证求解精度的同时,加速了涡流无损检测系统的MAPoD和SA问题的研究,并减少了计算开销。在计算量方面,对这两个问题的求解,平均分别仅需纯物理模型计算量的3.5%和0.06%。
文摘为实现环境激励下复杂钢结构的损伤预警,提出一种基于粒子群优化(particle swarm optimization,简称PSO)的支持向量回归(support vector regression,简称SVR)-时间序列(auto-regressive and moving average model,简称ARMA)组合模型用于频率预测,并结合均值控制图法将其用于复杂钢结构的损伤预警中。所提出频率预测模型的准确性和有效性采用潍坊市白浪河摩天轮钢结构实测数据进行验证。验证结果表明:与基本SVR模型、SVR-ARMA模型和PSO-SVR模型相比,所提模型具有更高的泛化能力和预测精度;在白浪河摩天轮钢结构的损伤预警中,基于粒子群优化的SVR-ARMA组合模型可检出由损伤造成模态频率轻微的异常变化,具有较强的损伤敏感性。研究成果可为环境激励下复杂钢结构的损伤预警提供参考。
