Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and ...Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).After feature selection via Elastic Net Regularization,we applied DLNMs to evaluate the lagged effects of risk factors.Disability was defined as the presence of any difficulties in basic activities of daily living(BADL).The cumulative relative risk(CRR)was calculated by summing the lag-specific risk estimates,representing the cumulative disability risk over the specified lag period.Effect modifications and sensitivity analyses were also performed.Results This study included a total of 2,318 participants.Early-phase lag factors,such as the difficulty in stooping(CRR=3.58;95%CI:2.31-5.55;P<0.001)and walking(CRR=2.77;95%CI:1.39-5.55;P<0.001),exerted the strongest effects immediately upon occurrence.Mid-phase lag factors,such as arthritis(CRR=1.51;95%CI:1.10-2.06;P=0.001),showed a resurgence in disability risk within 2-3 years.Late-phase lag factors,including depressive symptoms(CRR=2.38;95%CI:1.30-4.35;P<0.001)and elevated systolic blood pressure(CRR=1.64;95%CI:1.06-2.79;P=0.02),exhibited significant long-term cumulative risks.Conversely,grip strength(CRR=0.80;95%CI:0.54-0.95;P=0.02)and social participation(CRR=0.89;95%CI:0.73-0.99;P=0.04)were significant protective factors.Conclusions The findings underscore the importance of tailored interventions that account for various lag characteristics of different factors to effectively mitigate disability risk.Future studies should explore the underlying biological and sociological mechanisms of these lagged effects,identify intervention strategies that target risk factors with different lagged patterns,and evaluate their effectiveness.展开更多
Characterized by special morphologic,geographic,hydrologic,and societal behaviors,the water resources management of the Mediterranean catchment often shows a higher level of complexity including security issues of wat...Characterized by special morphologic,geographic,hydrologic,and societal behaviors,the water resources management of the Mediterranean catchment often shows a higher level of complexity including security issues of water supply,inundation risks,and environment management under the perspective of climate change.To have a comprehensive understanding of the Mediterranean water-cycle system,a deterministic distributed hydrologic modeling approach has been developed and presented in this study based on an application in the Var catchment(2800 km^(2))located at the French Mediterranean region.A 1D and 2D coupled model of MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 has been set up under a series of hypotheses to represent the whole hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes including rainfall-runoff,snow-melting,channel flow,overland flow,and the water exchange between land surface and unsaturated/saturated zones.The developed model was first calibrated with 4 years daily records from 2008 to 2011,then to be validated and further run within hourly time interval to produce detailed representation of the catchment water-cycle from 2012 to 2014.The deterministic distributed modeling approach presented in this study is able to represent its complicated water-cycle and used for supporting the decision‐making process of the water resources management of the catchment.展开更多
This study examined non-uniform loading in goaf cantilever rock masses via testing,modeling,and mechanical analysis to solve instantaneous fracture and section buckling from mining abutment pressure.The study investig...This study examined non-uniform loading in goaf cantilever rock masses via testing,modeling,and mechanical analysis to solve instantaneous fracture and section buckling from mining abutment pressure.The study investigates the non-uniform load gradient effect on fracture characteristics,including load characteristics,fracture location,fracture distribution,and section roughness.A digital model for fracture interface buckling analysis was developed,elucidating the influence of non-uniform load gradients on Fracture Interface Curvature(FIC),Buckling Rate of Change(BRC),and Buckling Domain Field(BDF).The findings reveal that nonlinear tensile stress concentration and abrupt tensile-compressive-shear strain mutations under non-uniform loading are fundamental mechanisms driving fracture path buckling in cantilever rock mass structures.The buckling process of rock mass under non-uniform load can be divided into two stages:low load gradient and high gradient load.In the stage of low gradient load,the buckling behavior is mainly reflected in the compression-shear fracture of the edge.In the stage of high gradient load,a buckling band along the loading direction is gradually formed in the rock mass.These buckling principles establish a theoretical basis for accurately characterizing bearing fractures,fracture interface instability,and vibration sources within overlying cantilever rock masses in goaf.展开更多
The intracontinental subduction of a>200-km-long section of the Tajik-Tarim lithosphere beneath the Pamir Mountains is proposed to explain nearly 30 km of shortening in the Tajik fold-thrust belt and the Pamir upli...The intracontinental subduction of a>200-km-long section of the Tajik-Tarim lithosphere beneath the Pamir Mountains is proposed to explain nearly 30 km of shortening in the Tajik fold-thrust belt and the Pamir uplift.Seismic imaging revealed that the upper slab was scraped and that the lower slab had subducted to a depth of>150 km.These features constitute the tectonic complexity of the Pamirs,as well as the thermal subduction mechanism involved,which remains poorly understood.Hence,in this study,high-resolution three-dimensional(3D)kinematic modeling is applied to investigate the thermal structure and geometry of the subducting slab beneath the Pamirs.The modeled slab configuration reveals distinct along-strike variations,with a steeply dipping slab beneath the southern Pamirs,a more gently inclined slab beneath the northern Pamirs,and apparent upper slab termination at shallow depths beneath the Pamirs.The thermal field reveals a cold slab core after delamination,with temperatures ranging from 400℃to 800℃,enveloped by a hotter mantle reaching~1400℃.The occurrence of intermediate-depth earthquakes aligns primarily with colder slab regions,particularly near the slab tear-off below the southwestern Pamirs,indicating a strong correlation between slab temperature and seismicity.In contrast,the northern Pamirs exhibit reduced seismicity at depth,which is likely associated with thermal weakening and delamination.The central Pamirs show a significant thermal anomaly caused by a concave slab,where the coldest crust does not descend deeply,further suggesting crustal detachment or mechanical failure.The lateral asymmetry in slab temperature possibly explains the mechanism of lateral tearing and differential slab-mantle coupling.展开更多
Theauthor proposes a dual layer source grid load storage collaborative planning model based on Benders decomposition to optimize the low-carbon and economic performance of the distribution network.The model plans the ...Theauthor proposes a dual layer source grid load storage collaborative planning model based on Benders decomposition to optimize the low-carbon and economic performance of the distribution network.The model plans the configuration of photovoltaic(3.8 MW),wind power(2.5 MW),energy storage(2.2 MWh),and SVC(1.2 Mvar)through interaction between upper and lower layers,and modifies lines 2–3,8–9,etc.to improve transmission capacity and voltage stability.The author uses normal distribution and Monte Carlo method to model load uncertainty,and combines Weibull distribution to describe wind speed characteristics.Compared to the traditional three-layer model(TLM),Benders decomposition-based two-layer model(BLBD)has a 58.1%reduction in convergence time(5.36 vs.12.78 h),a 51.1%reduction in iteration times(23 vs.47 times),a 8.07%reduction in total cost(12.436 vs.13.528 million yuan),and a 9.62%reduction in carbon emissions(12,456 vs.13,782 t).After optimization,the peak valley difference decreased from4.1 to 2.9MW,the renewable energy consumption rate reached 93.4%,and the energy storage efficiency was 87.6%.Themodel has been validated in the IEEE 33 node system,demonstrating its superiority in terms of economy,low-carbon,and reliability.展开更多
In this paper,we investigate the periodic traveling wave solutions problem for a single population model with advection and distributed delay.By the bifurcation analysis method,we can obtain periodic traveling wave so...In this paper,we investigate the periodic traveling wave solutions problem for a single population model with advection and distributed delay.By the bifurcation analysis method,we can obtain periodic traveling wave solutions for this model under the influence of advection term and distributed delay.The obtained results indicate that weak kernel and strong kernel can both deduce the existence of periodic traveling wave solutions.Finally,we apply the main results in this paper to Logistic model and Nicholson’s blowflies model.展开更多
Resilience studies for water distribution systems(WDS)coupled with other interdependent infrastructure systems attract increasing attention from stakeholders and researchers.However,most existing large-scale WDS model...Resilience studies for water distribution systems(WDS)coupled with other interdependent infrastructure systems attract increasing attention from stakeholders and researchers.However,most existing large-scale WDS models are single infrastructure-based without consideration of other infrastructure systems.This is due to a lack of needed information on systems coupling,the structure of the simulator used,and the computation load involved.To address these gaps,this paper presents a synthetic modeling framework for a real-world WDS as coordinating with other infrastructure systems via a building-mediated clustering approach through consideration of physical distance and node capacity.First,the WDS network topology and operation parameters are inferred via bulk open-source information.A building-mediated clustering approach is designed to systematically derive the interdependence between the WDS and the power system similarly created as a case study.Second,a novel linearization method is developed in formulating the WDS model that can relieve computation load while maintaining accuracy.Finally,a disruption-recovery framework is developed to demonstrate the proposed methodology in modelling WDS resilience.The framework is applied to a neighborhood in Queenstown,Singapore,an area of 20.43 km^(2) and 96,000 population.The near-real-time simulations on the coupled system involving 308 nodes and 384 links showcase the effectiveness and application of the proposed synthetic modeling and formulation.展开更多
Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba),widely distributes around Antarctica,is a key species supporting the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resou...Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba),widely distributes around Antarctica,is a key species supporting the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources(CCAMLR)has thus managed the krill fishery according to a precautionary way.Currently,CCAMLR is making effort to develop a refined krill fishery management approach based on more solid science,which requires accurate predictions of krill distribution.To address this need,this study investigated the effects of algorithm and spatial resolution on the performance of Antarctic krill distribution modelling.We integrated acoustic data from 4 surveys conducted in the waters adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula with 11 environmental variables characterizing krill prey conditions,water mass properties,and seafloor topography.These data were processed at 4 spatial resolutions(5,10,15,and 20 km)to fit distribution models using 4 algorithms:Random Forests(RF),Generalized Additive Models(GAM),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).Model performance was assessed and compared in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy.The results showed that RF achieved the highest predictive performance at most resolutions,whereas GAM performed best at the coarsest resolution(20 km).XGBoost closely following RF in accuracy and demonstrated robustness as evidenced by the highly consistent partial dependence curves across resolutions.In contrast,ANN exhibited limitations with smaller sample sizes,resulting in comparatively poorer predictive performance.The analysis revealed a trade-off whereby reducing spatial resolution improved model fit and mitigated zero-inflation at the expense of fine-scale information and overall predictive accuracy.Ensemble models,integrating RF,GAM,and XGBoost,are proposed as potential balanced solutions to improve predictive stability,offering a more robust scientific basis for the refinement of krill management.展开更多
The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with clim...The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.展开更多
Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data...Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data and meteorological observations, a distributed model for calculating DSR over rugged terrain is developed. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors influencing th a resolution of 1 km × 1 km for thDSR. Using the developed model, normals of annual DSR quantity wie Yellow River Basin was generated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. Characteristics of DSR quantity influenced by geographic and topographic factors over rugged terrain were analyzed thoroughly. Results suggest that： influenced by local topographic factors, i.e. azimuth, slope and so on, and annual DSR quantity over mountainous area has a clear spatial difference; annual DSR quantity of sunny slope （or southern slope） of mountains is obviously larger than that of shady slope （or northern slope）. The calculated DSR quantity of the Yellow River Basin is provided in the same way as other kinds of spatial information and can be employed as basic geographic data for relevant studies as well.展开更多
A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncer...A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.展开更多
The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysi...The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysis of the proposed distributed KF algorithm without independent and stationary signal assumptions,which implies that the theoretical results are able to be applied to stochastic feedback systems.Note that the main difficulty of stability analysis lies in analyzing the properties of the product of non-independent and non-stationary random matrices involved in the error equation.We employ analysis techniques such as stochastic Lyapunov function,stability theory of stochastic systems,and algebraic graph theory to deal with the above issue.The stochastic spatio-temporal cooperative information condition shows the cooperative property of multiple sensors that even though any local sensor cannot track the time-varying unknown signal,the distributed KF algorithm can be utilized to finish the filtering task in a cooperative way.At last,we illustrate the property of the proposed distributed KF algorithm by a simulation example.展开更多
In Pakistan,the solar analogue has been addressed but its surface geographical parameterization has given least attention.Inappropriate density of stations and their spatial coverage particularly in difficult peripher...In Pakistan,the solar analogue has been addressed but its surface geographical parameterization has given least attention.Inappropriate density of stations and their spatial coverage particularly in difficult peripheral national territories,little or no solar radiation data,non-satisfactory sunshine hours data,and low quality of ground observed cloud cover data create a situation in which the spatial modeling of Extraterrestrial Solar Radiation(ESR) and its ground parameterization got sufficient scope.The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) input into Geographic Information System (GIS) is a compatible tool to demonstrate the spatial distribution of ESR over the rugged terrains of the study domain.For the first time,distributed modeling of ESR is done over the rugged terrains of Pakistan,based on DEM and ArcGIS..Results clearly depict that the complex landforms profoundly disrupt the zonal distribution of ESR in Pakistan.The screening impact of topography is higher on spatial distribution of ESR in winter and considerably low in summer.The combined effect of topography and latitude is obvious.Hence,the model was further testified by plotting Rb (ratio of ESR quantity over rugged terrain against plane surface) against azimuth at different latitudes with different angled slopes.The results clearly support the strong screening effect of rugged terrain through out the country especially in Himalayas,Karakoram and Hindukush (HKH),western border mountains and Balochistan Plateau.This model can be instrumental as baseline geospatial information for scientific investigations in Pakistan,where substantial fraction of national population is living in mountainous regions.展开更多
Combustion kinetics of the hydrochar was investigated using a multi-Gaussian-distributed activation energy model(DAEM)to ex-pand the knowledge on the combustion mechanisms.The results demonstrated that the kinetic par...Combustion kinetics of the hydrochar was investigated using a multi-Gaussian-distributed activation energy model(DAEM)to ex-pand the knowledge on the combustion mechanisms.The results demonstrated that the kinetic parameters calculated by the multi-Gaussian-DAEM accurately represented the experimental conversion rate curves.Overall,the feedstock combustion could be divided into four stages:the decomposition of hemicellulose,cellulose,lignin,and char combustion.The hydrochar combustion could in turn be divided into three stages:the combustion of cellulose,lignin,and char.The mean activation energy ranges obtained for the cellulose,lignin,and char were 273.7-292.8,315.1-334.5,and 354.4-370 kJ/mol,respectively,with the standard deviations of 2.1-23.1,9.5-27.4,and 12.1-22.9 kJ/mol,re-spectively.The cellulose and lignin contents first increased and then decreased with increasing hydrothermal carbonization(HTC)temperature,while the mass fraction of char gradually increased.展开更多
The dynamic performance of a nozzle-flapper servo valve can be affected by several factors such as the disturbance of the input signal,the motion of the armature assembly and the oscillation of the jet force.As the pa...The dynamic performance of a nozzle-flapper servo valve can be affected by several factors such as the disturbance of the input signal,the motion of the armature assembly and the oscillation of the jet force.As the part of vibrating at high frequency,the armature assembly plays a vital role during the operation of the servo valve.In order to accurately predict the transient response of the armature assembly during the vibration,a mathematical model of armature assembly is established based on the distributed parameters method(DPM)and Hamilton principle.The new mathematical model is composed of three main parts,the modal eigenfunction,modal mechanical response expressions of the spring tube and the motion equation of the other armature assembly.After programing,the purpose of using the DPM to predict the dynamic response of different positions located on the armature assembly is achieved.For verifying the validity of the mathematical model,the finite element method(FEM)and classic model(CM)of armature assembly are applicated by commercial software under the same condition.The comparison results prove that the DPM can effectively predict the axial and tangential deflection of the armature assembly different positions which the CM can’t duing to its over-simplification.A certain error is generated when predicting the axial deformation at different heights by DPM,which is caused by an approximate method to simulate the torsion of the spring tube.The comparison results of the spring tube deflection at different vibration frequencies shows that the adaptability of DPM is significantly higher than the classic model,which verify the model is more adaptable for predicting the dynamic response of the armature assembly.展开更多
Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electro...Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.展开更多
At present, the development of distribution network can’t meet the requirements of rapid economic development. The traditional single energy supply is difficult to meet the request, and distributed energy supply has ...At present, the development of distribution network can’t meet the requirements of rapid economic development. The traditional single energy supply is difficult to meet the request, and distributed energy supply has a lot of advantages compared to it, particularly it's close to the end users, and they have been developed well and applied widely in recent years. This paper summarizes the features and current development of the distributed energy supply, and mainly describes the grid-connection model of distributed energy supply. Base on the mathematic grid-connection model of distributed power sources with different generation principles as well as that energy storage, the treatment of these models in distribution network power flow analysis is also presented.展开更多
The complexity of distribution network model mainly depends on the model scale of grid-connected distributed photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Therefore, the simulation performance of multi-scale PV model is the key...The complexity of distribution network model mainly depends on the model scale of grid-connected distributed photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Therefore, the simulation performance of multi-scale PV model is the key factor of the simulation accuracy in the specific operating scenarios of distribution network. In this paper, a multi-scale model of grid connected PV distributed generation system is proposed based on the mathematical model of grid-connected distributed PV power generation. It is analyzed that differences of simulation performance, such as adaptability of simulation step size, accuracy of output and the effect on voltage profile of distribution network, between PV models with different scales in IEEE 33 node example. Simulation results indicate that the multi-scale model is effective in improving the accuracy and efficiency of simulation under different operating conditions of distribution network.展开更多
A distributed capacitance model for monolithic inductors is developed to predict the equivalently parasitical capacitances of the inductor.The ratio of the self-resonant frequency (f SR) of the differential-driven sym...A distributed capacitance model for monolithic inductors is developed to predict the equivalently parasitical capacitances of the inductor.The ratio of the self-resonant frequency (f SR) of the differential-driven symmetric inductor to the f SR of the single-ended driven inductor is firstly predicted and explained.Compared with a single-ended configuration,experimental data demonstrate that the differential inductor offers a 127% greater maximum quality factor and a broader range of operating frequencies.Two differential inductors with low parasitical capacitance are developed and validated.展开更多
By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets ...By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets of multi-measurements of the same ESG in different noise environments are ＂mapped＂ into a sensor network,and DKF with embedded consensus filters is then used to preprocess the data sets. After transforming the preprocessed results into the trained input and the desired output of neural network,BPNN with the learning rate and the momentum term is further utilized to identify the ESG bias. As demonstrated in the experiment,the proposed approach is effective for the model identification of the ESG bias.展开更多
基金supported by ScientificResearch Fund of National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China-Major Science and Technology Program for Medicine and Health in Zhejiang Province(WKJ-ZJ-2406).
文摘Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).After feature selection via Elastic Net Regularization,we applied DLNMs to evaluate the lagged effects of risk factors.Disability was defined as the presence of any difficulties in basic activities of daily living(BADL).The cumulative relative risk(CRR)was calculated by summing the lag-specific risk estimates,representing the cumulative disability risk over the specified lag period.Effect modifications and sensitivity analyses were also performed.Results This study included a total of 2,318 participants.Early-phase lag factors,such as the difficulty in stooping(CRR=3.58;95%CI:2.31-5.55;P<0.001)and walking(CRR=2.77;95%CI:1.39-5.55;P<0.001),exerted the strongest effects immediately upon occurrence.Mid-phase lag factors,such as arthritis(CRR=1.51;95%CI:1.10-2.06;P=0.001),showed a resurgence in disability risk within 2-3 years.Late-phase lag factors,including depressive symptoms(CRR=2.38;95%CI:1.30-4.35;P<0.001)and elevated systolic blood pressure(CRR=1.64;95%CI:1.06-2.79;P=0.02),exhibited significant long-term cumulative risks.Conversely,grip strength(CRR=0.80;95%CI:0.54-0.95;P=0.02)and social participation(CRR=0.89;95%CI:0.73-0.99;P=0.04)were significant protective factors.Conclusions The findings underscore the importance of tailored interventions that account for various lag characteristics of different factors to effectively mitigate disability risk.Future studies should explore the underlying biological and sociological mechanisms of these lagged effects,identify intervention strategies that target risk factors with different lagged patterns,and evaluate their effectiveness.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFC3006702)the Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality(IS23117).
文摘Characterized by special morphologic,geographic,hydrologic,and societal behaviors,the water resources management of the Mediterranean catchment often shows a higher level of complexity including security issues of water supply,inundation risks,and environment management under the perspective of climate change.To have a comprehensive understanding of the Mediterranean water-cycle system,a deterministic distributed hydrologic modeling approach has been developed and presented in this study based on an application in the Var catchment(2800 km^(2))located at the French Mediterranean region.A 1D and 2D coupled model of MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 has been set up under a series of hypotheses to represent the whole hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes including rainfall-runoff,snow-melting,channel flow,overland flow,and the water exchange between land surface and unsaturated/saturated zones.The developed model was first calibrated with 4 years daily records from 2008 to 2011,then to be validated and further run within hourly time interval to produce detailed representation of the catchment water-cycle from 2012 to 2014.The deterministic distributed modeling approach presented in this study is able to represent its complicated water-cycle and used for supporting the decision‐making process of the water resources management of the catchment.
基金support provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274077)the Natural Science Foundation of Henan(No.242300421072)+2 种基金the Youth Elite Teachers Cultivation Program for Higher Education Institutions in Henan Province(No.2024GGJS036)the Funds for Distinguished Young Scholars of Henan Polytechnic University(No.J2023-3)the Young Core Teacher Funding Scheme of Henan Polytechnic University(No.2023XQG-09).
文摘This study examined non-uniform loading in goaf cantilever rock masses via testing,modeling,and mechanical analysis to solve instantaneous fracture and section buckling from mining abutment pressure.The study investigates the non-uniform load gradient effect on fracture characteristics,including load characteristics,fracture location,fracture distribution,and section roughness.A digital model for fracture interface buckling analysis was developed,elucidating the influence of non-uniform load gradients on Fracture Interface Curvature(FIC),Buckling Rate of Change(BRC),and Buckling Domain Field(BDF).The findings reveal that nonlinear tensile stress concentration and abrupt tensile-compressive-shear strain mutations under non-uniform loading are fundamental mechanisms driving fracture path buckling in cantilever rock mass structures.The buckling process of rock mass under non-uniform load can be divided into two stages:low load gradient and high gradient load.In the stage of low gradient load,the buckling behavior is mainly reflected in the compression-shear fracture of the edge.In the stage of high gradient load,a buckling band along the loading direction is gradually formed in the rock mass.These buckling principles establish a theoretical basis for accurately characterizing bearing fractures,fracture interface instability,and vibration sources within overlying cantilever rock masses in goaf.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences Pioneer Hundred Talents Program and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0708)supported by a MEXT(Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science and Technology)KAKENHI(Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research)grant(Grant No.21H05203)Kobe University Strategic International Collaborative Research Grant(Type B Fostering Joint Research).
文摘The intracontinental subduction of a>200-km-long section of the Tajik-Tarim lithosphere beneath the Pamir Mountains is proposed to explain nearly 30 km of shortening in the Tajik fold-thrust belt and the Pamir uplift.Seismic imaging revealed that the upper slab was scraped and that the lower slab had subducted to a depth of>150 km.These features constitute the tectonic complexity of the Pamirs,as well as the thermal subduction mechanism involved,which remains poorly understood.Hence,in this study,high-resolution three-dimensional(3D)kinematic modeling is applied to investigate the thermal structure and geometry of the subducting slab beneath the Pamirs.The modeled slab configuration reveals distinct along-strike variations,with a steeply dipping slab beneath the southern Pamirs,a more gently inclined slab beneath the northern Pamirs,and apparent upper slab termination at shallow depths beneath the Pamirs.The thermal field reveals a cold slab core after delamination,with temperatures ranging from 400℃to 800℃,enveloped by a hotter mantle reaching~1400℃.The occurrence of intermediate-depth earthquakes aligns primarily with colder slab regions,particularly near the slab tear-off below the southwestern Pamirs,indicating a strong correlation between slab temperature and seismicity.In contrast,the northern Pamirs exhibit reduced seismicity at depth,which is likely associated with thermal weakening and delamination.The central Pamirs show a significant thermal anomaly caused by a concave slab,where the coldest crust does not descend deeply,further suggesting crustal detachment or mechanical failure.The lateral asymmetry in slab temperature possibly explains the mechanism of lateral tearing and differential slab-mantle coupling.
文摘Theauthor proposes a dual layer source grid load storage collaborative planning model based on Benders decomposition to optimize the low-carbon and economic performance of the distribution network.The model plans the configuration of photovoltaic(3.8 MW),wind power(2.5 MW),energy storage(2.2 MWh),and SVC(1.2 Mvar)through interaction between upper and lower layers,and modifies lines 2–3,8–9,etc.to improve transmission capacity and voltage stability.The author uses normal distribution and Monte Carlo method to model load uncertainty,and combines Weibull distribution to describe wind speed characteristics.Compared to the traditional three-layer model(TLM),Benders decomposition-based two-layer model(BLBD)has a 58.1%reduction in convergence time(5.36 vs.12.78 h),a 51.1%reduction in iteration times(23 vs.47 times),a 8.07%reduction in total cost(12.436 vs.13.528 million yuan),and a 9.62%reduction in carbon emissions(12,456 vs.13,782 t).After optimization,the peak valley difference decreased from4.1 to 2.9MW,the renewable energy consumption rate reached 93.4%,and the energy storage efficiency was 87.6%.Themodel has been validated in the IEEE 33 node system,demonstrating its superiority in terms of economy,low-carbon,and reliability.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261050)Science and Technology Project of Department of Education of Jiangxi Province(GJJ2201612 and GJJ211027)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province of China(20212BAB202021)。
文摘In this paper,we investigate the periodic traveling wave solutions problem for a single population model with advection and distributed delay.By the bifurcation analysis method,we can obtain periodic traveling wave solutions for this model under the influence of advection term and distributed delay.The obtained results indicate that weak kernel and strong kernel can both deduce the existence of periodic traveling wave solutions.Finally,we apply the main results in this paper to Logistic model and Nicholson’s blowflies model.
文摘Resilience studies for water distribution systems(WDS)coupled with other interdependent infrastructure systems attract increasing attention from stakeholders and researchers.However,most existing large-scale WDS models are single infrastructure-based without consideration of other infrastructure systems.This is due to a lack of needed information on systems coupling,the structure of the simulator used,and the computation load involved.To address these gaps,this paper presents a synthetic modeling framework for a real-world WDS as coordinating with other infrastructure systems via a building-mediated clustering approach through consideration of physical distance and node capacity.First,the WDS network topology and operation parameters are inferred via bulk open-source information.A building-mediated clustering approach is designed to systematically derive the interdependence between the WDS and the power system similarly created as a case study.Second,a novel linearization method is developed in formulating the WDS model that can relieve computation load while maintaining accuracy.Finally,a disruption-recovery framework is developed to demonstrate the proposed methodology in modelling WDS resilience.The framework is applied to a neighborhood in Queenstown,Singapore,an area of 20.43 km^(2) and 96,000 population.The near-real-time simulations on the coupled system involving 308 nodes and 384 links showcase the effectiveness and application of the proposed synthetic modeling and formulation.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant no.2022YFC2807504)the Marine S&T Fund of Shandong Province for Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center(Grant no.2022QNLM030002-1)the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research(Grant no.2023TD02).
文摘Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba),widely distributes around Antarctica,is a key species supporting the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources(CCAMLR)has thus managed the krill fishery according to a precautionary way.Currently,CCAMLR is making effort to develop a refined krill fishery management approach based on more solid science,which requires accurate predictions of krill distribution.To address this need,this study investigated the effects of algorithm and spatial resolution on the performance of Antarctic krill distribution modelling.We integrated acoustic data from 4 surveys conducted in the waters adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula with 11 environmental variables characterizing krill prey conditions,water mass properties,and seafloor topography.These data were processed at 4 spatial resolutions(5,10,15,and 20 km)to fit distribution models using 4 algorithms:Random Forests(RF),Generalized Additive Models(GAM),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).Model performance was assessed and compared in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy.The results showed that RF achieved the highest predictive performance at most resolutions,whereas GAM performed best at the coarsest resolution(20 km).XGBoost closely following RF in accuracy and demonstrated robustness as evidenced by the highly consistent partial dependence curves across resolutions.In contrast,ANN exhibited limitations with smaller sample sizes,resulting in comparatively poorer predictive performance.The analysis revealed a trade-off whereby reducing spatial resolution improved model fit and mitigated zero-inflation at the expense of fine-scale information and overall predictive accuracy.Ensemble models,integrating RF,GAM,and XGBoost,are proposed as potential balanced solutions to improve predictive stability,offering a more robust scientific basis for the refinement of krill management.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1427100)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFD2401303)the Shanghai Talent Development Funding for the Project(No.2021078)。
文摘The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.
文摘Due to the influences of local topographical factors and terrain inter-shielding, calculation of direct solar radiation （DSR） quantity of rugged terrain is very complex. Based on digital elevation model （DEM） data and meteorological observations, a distributed model for calculating DSR over rugged terrain is developed. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors influencing th a resolution of 1 km × 1 km for thDSR. Using the developed model, normals of annual DSR quantity wie Yellow River Basin was generated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. Characteristics of DSR quantity influenced by geographic and topographic factors over rugged terrain were analyzed thoroughly. Results suggest that： influenced by local topographic factors, i.e. azimuth, slope and so on, and annual DSR quantity over mountainous area has a clear spatial difference; annual DSR quantity of sunny slope （or southern slope） of mountains is obviously larger than that of shady slope （or northern slope）. The calculated DSR quantity of the Yellow River Basin is provided in the same way as other kinds of spatial information and can be employed as basic geographic data for relevant studies as well.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U24B20156)the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China(No.JCKY2021204B051)the National Laboratory of Space Intelligent Control of China(Nos.HTKJ2023KL502005 and HTKJ2024KL502007)。
文摘A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.
基金supported in part by Sichuan Science and Technology Program under Grant No.2025ZNSFSC151in part by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No.XDA27030201+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U21B6001in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Tianjin under Grant No.24JCQNJC01930.
文摘The work proposes a distributed Kalman filtering(KF)algorithm to track a time-varying unknown signal process for a stochastic regression model over network systems in a cooperative way.We provide the stability analysis of the proposed distributed KF algorithm without independent and stationary signal assumptions,which implies that the theoretical results are able to be applied to stochastic feedback systems.Note that the main difficulty of stability analysis lies in analyzing the properties of the product of non-independent and non-stationary random matrices involved in the error equation.We employ analysis techniques such as stochastic Lyapunov function,stability theory of stochastic systems,and algebraic graph theory to deal with the above issue.The stochastic spatio-temporal cooperative information condition shows the cooperative property of multiple sensors that even though any local sensor cannot track the time-varying unknown signal,the distributed KF algorithm can be utilized to finish the filtering task in a cooperative way.At last,we illustrate the property of the proposed distributed KF algorithm by a simulation example.
文摘In Pakistan,the solar analogue has been addressed but its surface geographical parameterization has given least attention.Inappropriate density of stations and their spatial coverage particularly in difficult peripheral national territories,little or no solar radiation data,non-satisfactory sunshine hours data,and low quality of ground observed cloud cover data create a situation in which the spatial modeling of Extraterrestrial Solar Radiation(ESR) and its ground parameterization got sufficient scope.The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) input into Geographic Information System (GIS) is a compatible tool to demonstrate the spatial distribution of ESR over the rugged terrains of the study domain.For the first time,distributed modeling of ESR is done over the rugged terrains of Pakistan,based on DEM and ArcGIS..Results clearly depict that the complex landforms profoundly disrupt the zonal distribution of ESR in Pakistan.The screening impact of topography is higher on spatial distribution of ESR in winter and considerably low in summer.The combined effect of topography and latitude is obvious.Hence,the model was further testified by plotting Rb (ratio of ESR quantity over rugged terrain against plane surface) against azimuth at different latitudes with different angled slopes.The results clearly support the strong screening effect of rugged terrain through out the country especially in Himalayas,Karakoram and Hindukush (HKH),western border mountains and Balochistan Plateau.This model can be instrumental as baseline geospatial information for scientific investigations in Pakistan,where substantial fraction of national population is living in mountainous regions.
基金the National Nat-ural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52074029,51804026)the USTB-NTUT Joint Research Program(No.06310063)Chuan Wang would like to acknowledge the funding support from Vinnova(dnr:2017-01327).
文摘Combustion kinetics of the hydrochar was investigated using a multi-Gaussian-distributed activation energy model(DAEM)to ex-pand the knowledge on the combustion mechanisms.The results demonstrated that the kinetic parameters calculated by the multi-Gaussian-DAEM accurately represented the experimental conversion rate curves.Overall,the feedstock combustion could be divided into four stages:the decomposition of hemicellulose,cellulose,lignin,and char combustion.The hydrochar combustion could in turn be divided into three stages:the combustion of cellulose,lignin,and char.The mean activation energy ranges obtained for the cellulose,lignin,and char were 273.7-292.8,315.1-334.5,and 354.4-370 kJ/mol,respectively,with the standard deviations of 2.1-23.1,9.5-27.4,and 12.1-22.9 kJ/mol,re-spectively.The cellulose and lignin contents first increased and then decreased with increasing hydrothermal carbonization(HTC)temperature,while the mass fraction of char gradually increased.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51675119)。
文摘The dynamic performance of a nozzle-flapper servo valve can be affected by several factors such as the disturbance of the input signal,the motion of the armature assembly and the oscillation of the jet force.As the part of vibrating at high frequency,the armature assembly plays a vital role during the operation of the servo valve.In order to accurately predict the transient response of the armature assembly during the vibration,a mathematical model of armature assembly is established based on the distributed parameters method(DPM)and Hamilton principle.The new mathematical model is composed of three main parts,the modal eigenfunction,modal mechanical response expressions of the spring tube and the motion equation of the other armature assembly.After programing,the purpose of using the DPM to predict the dynamic response of different positions located on the armature assembly is achieved.For verifying the validity of the mathematical model,the finite element method(FEM)and classic model(CM)of armature assembly are applicated by commercial software under the same condition.The comparison results prove that the DPM can effectively predict the axial and tangential deflection of the armature assembly different positions which the CM can’t duing to its over-simplification.A certain error is generated when predicting the axial deformation at different heights by DPM,which is caused by an approximate method to simulate the torsion of the spring tube.The comparison results of the spring tube deflection at different vibration frequencies shows that the adaptability of DPM is significantly higher than the classic model,which verify the model is more adaptable for predicting the dynamic response of the armature assembly.
基金This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities （No.2017JBM003）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.61575053, No.61504008）, and the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China （No.20130009120042）.
文摘Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.
文摘At present, the development of distribution network can’t meet the requirements of rapid economic development. The traditional single energy supply is difficult to meet the request, and distributed energy supply has a lot of advantages compared to it, particularly it's close to the end users, and they have been developed well and applied widely in recent years. This paper summarizes the features and current development of the distributed energy supply, and mainly describes the grid-connection model of distributed energy supply. Base on the mathematic grid-connection model of distributed power sources with different generation principles as well as that energy storage, the treatment of these models in distribution network power flow analysis is also presented.
文摘The complexity of distribution network model mainly depends on the model scale of grid-connected distributed photovoltaic (PV) power generation. Therefore, the simulation performance of multi-scale PV model is the key factor of the simulation accuracy in the specific operating scenarios of distribution network. In this paper, a multi-scale model of grid connected PV distributed generation system is proposed based on the mathematical model of grid-connected distributed PV power generation. It is analyzed that differences of simulation performance, such as adaptability of simulation step size, accuracy of output and the effect on voltage profile of distribution network, between PV models with different scales in IEEE 33 node example. Simulation results indicate that the multi-scale model is effective in improving the accuracy and efficiency of simulation under different operating conditions of distribution network.
文摘A distributed capacitance model for monolithic inductors is developed to predict the equivalently parasitical capacitances of the inductor.The ratio of the self-resonant frequency (f SR) of the differential-driven symmetric inductor to the f SR of the single-ended driven inductor is firstly predicted and explained.Compared with a single-ended configuration,experimental data demonstrate that the differential inductor offers a 127% greater maximum quality factor and a broader range of operating frequencies.Two differential inductors with low parasitical capacitance are developed and validated.
文摘By combining the distributed Kalman filter （DKF） with the back propagation neural network （BPNN）,a novel method is proposed to identify the bias of electrostatic suspended gyroscope （ESG）. Firstly,the data sets of multi-measurements of the same ESG in different noise environments are ＂mapped＂ into a sensor network,and DKF with embedded consensus filters is then used to preprocess the data sets. After transforming the preprocessed results into the trained input and the desired output of neural network,BPNN with the learning rate and the momentum term is further utilized to identify the ESG bias. As demonstrated in the experiment,the proposed approach is effective for the model identification of the ESG bias.
