The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determinin...The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determining whether there is any change in the biomarker of the patient. It is important to study how the biomarker changes due to treatment and whether for different individuals located in separate centers can be clustered together since they might have different distributions. The study is motivated by a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model, which is more flexible when compared to the Bayesian Parametric models and is capable of borrowing information across different centers allowing them to be grouped together. To this end, this research modeled Biological markers taking into consideration the Surrogate markers. The study employed the nested Dirichlet process prior, which is easily peaceable on different distributions for several centers, with centers from the same Dirichlet process component clustered automatically together. The study sampled from the posterior by use of Markov chain Monte carol algorithm. The model is illustrated using a simulation study to see how it performs on simulated data. Clearly, from the simulation study it was clear that, the model was capable of clustering data into different clusters.展开更多
Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method...Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method for representing observational uncertainty and develops a two-step approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)framework using time-series data.Within the ABC framework,Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances are employed as uncertainty quantification metrics to delineate approximate likelihood functions in the initial and subsequent steps,respectively.A novel variational Bayesian Monte Carlo method is introduced to efficiently apply the ABC framework amidst observational uncertainty,resulting in rapid convergence and accurate parameter estimation with minimal iterations.The efficacy of the proposed updating strategy is validated by its application to a shear frame model excited by seismic wave and an aviation pump force sensor for thermal output analysis.The results affirm the efficiency,robustness,and practical applicability of the proposed method.展开更多
Although Quercus mongolica is a widely distributed,economically and ecologically important deciduous tree in northern China,models to accurately predict stand growth at a regional scale are limited.The physiological p...Although Quercus mongolica is a widely distributed,economically and ecologically important deciduous tree in northern China,models to accurately predict stand growth at a regional scale are limited.The physiological process model(3-PG)has the potential to predict stand growth dynamics under varying site conditions and climate change scenarios.Here,we used field inventory,tree ring sampling,and Bayesian calibration to parameterize a model for Q.mongolica.Stand volume and productivity were then predicted under present conditions and three future climate scenarios(RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85).Our results demonstrated that after Bayesian calibration,the posterior ranges of the sensitivity parameters apha Cx,wSx1000 and pRn accounted for 34%,45%and 65%,respectively,of their prior range.Calibration and validation results revealed a strong correlation between predicted and measured values(R^(2)>0.87,P<0.01),with<20%bias for all growth indicators.Stand volume was projected to increase by 145%and productivity by 80%by the year 2100 under the RCP85 scenario,although these projections may vary across regions.The present study developed a tailored set of 3-PG model parameters for Q.mongolica,based on a comprehensive range of climate conditions,stand structure,and age classes.These parameters offer a scientific basis to accurately predict growth of other monospecific oak or mixed-species stands.展开更多
Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study pr...Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study primarily focuses on developing robust and practical hybrid models to predict the slope stability status of circular failure mode.For this purpose,three robust models were developed using a database including 627 case histories of slope stability status.The models were developed using the random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and extreme gradient boosting(XGB)techniques,employing 5-fold cross validation approach.To enhance the performance of models,this study employs Bayesian optimizer(BO)to fine-tuning their hyperparameters.The results indicate that the performance order of the three developed models is RF-BO>SVM-BO>XGB-BO.Furthermore,comparing the developed models with previous models,it was found that the RF-BO model can effectively determine the slope stability status with outstanding performance.This implies that the RF-BO model could serve as a dependable tool for project managers,assisting in the evaluation of slope stability during both the design and operational phases of projects,despite the inherent challenges in this domain.The results regarding the importance of influencing parameters indicate that cohesion,friction angle,and slope height exert the most significant impact on slope stability status.This suggests that concentrating on these parameters and employing the RF-BO model can effectively mitigate the severity of geohazards in the short-term and contribute to the attainment of long-term sustainable development objectives.展开更多
Despite extensive prevention efforts and research,dengue hemorrhagic fever(DHF)remains a major public health challenge,particularly in tropical regions,with significant social,economic,and health consequences.Statisti...Despite extensive prevention efforts and research,dengue hemorrhagic fever(DHF)remains a major public health challenge,particularly in tropical regions,with significant social,economic,and health consequences.Statistical models are crucial in studying infectious DHF by providing a structured framework to analyze transmission dynamics between humans(hosts)and mosquitoes(vectors).Depending on the disease characteristics,different stochastic compartmental models can be employed.This research applies Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation(INLA)to the SIR-SI model for DHF data.The method delivers accurate parameter estimates,improved computational efficiency,and effective integration with early warning systems.The model compared to existing work usingMarkovChainMonteCarlo(MCMC)usingmonthlyDHF data from10 districts inKendari-Indonesia from2020–2023.WhileMCMC requires 10,000 iterations with an 80,000 burn-in,INLA achieves parameter convergence with just 10,000 iterations.The parameter estimation results show that INLA provides a better fit,with the lowest deviance=105.23,compared toMCMC.Risk analysis using INLA highlights dengue case dynamics fromJanuary toMay each year.Kadia and Wua-Wua districts consistently show high case numbers,emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in Kendari City.Early surveillance and control efforts are essential to curb mosquito breeding in these areas starting in January.In contrast,the Puuwatu,Kambu,and Kendari Barat districts are sporadic outbreaks,often linked to cases originating in Kadia andWua-Wua districts.展开更多
This study investigated forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest and Rupestrian Grassland of Brazil using the diffusive-logistic growth(DLG)model.This model simulates vegetation growth in the two mountain biomes con...This study investigated forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest and Rupestrian Grassland of Brazil using the diffusive-logistic growth(DLG)model.This model simulates vegetation growth in the two mountain biomes considering spatial location,time,and two key parameters:diffusion rate and growth rate.A Bayesian framework is employed to analyze the model's parameters and assess prediction uncertainties.Satellite imagery from 1992 and 2022 was used for model calibration and validation.By solving the DLG model using the finite difference method,we predicted a 6.6%–51.1%increase in vegetation density for the Atlantic Rainforest and a 5.3%–99.9%increase for the Rupestrian Grassland over 30 years,with the latter showing slower recovery but achieving a better model fit(lower RMSE)compared to the Atlantic Rainforest.The Bayesian approach revealed well-defined parameter distributions and lower parameter values for the Rupestrian Grassland,supporting the slower recovery prediction.Importantly,the model achieved good agreement with observed vegetation patterns in unseen validation data for both biomes.While there were minor spatial variations in accuracy,the overall distributions of predicted and observed vegetation density were comparable.Furthermore,this study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty in model predictions.Bayesian inference allowed us to quantify this uncertainty,demonstrating that the model's performance can vary across locations.Our approach provides valuable insights into forest regeneration process uncertainties,enabling comparisons of modeled scenarios at different recovery stages for better decision-making in these critical mountain biomes.展开更多
Under the paradigm of Industry 5.0,intelligent manufacturing transcends mere efficiency enhancement by emphasizing human-machine collaboration,where human expertise plays a central role in assembly processes.Despite a...Under the paradigm of Industry 5.0,intelligent manufacturing transcends mere efficiency enhancement by emphasizing human-machine collaboration,where human expertise plays a central role in assembly processes.Despite advancements in intelligent and digital technologies,assembly process design still heavily relies on manual knowledge reuse,and inefficiencies and inconsistent quality in process documentation are caused.To address the aforementioned issues,this paper proposes a knowledge push method of complex product assembly process design based on distillation model-based dynamically enhanced graph and Bayesian network.First,an initial knowledge graph is constructed using a BERT-BiLSTM-CRF model trained with integrated human expertise and a fine-tuned large language model.Then,a confidence-based dynamic weighted fusion strategy is employed to achieve dynamic incremental construction of the knowledge graph with low resource consumption.Subsequently,a Bayesian network model is constructed based on the relationships between assembly components,assembly features,and operations.Bayesian network reasoning is used to push assembly process knowledge under different design requirements.Finally,the feasibility of the Bayesian network construction method and the effectiveness of Bayesian network reasoning are verified through a specific example,significantly improving the utilization of assembly process knowledge and the efficiency of assembly process design.展开更多
Challenges in stratigraphic modeling arise from underground uncertainty.While borehole exploration is reliable,it remains sparse due to economic and site constraints.Electrical resistivity tomography(ERT)as a cost-eff...Challenges in stratigraphic modeling arise from underground uncertainty.While borehole exploration is reliable,it remains sparse due to economic and site constraints.Electrical resistivity tomography(ERT)as a cost-effective geophysical technique can acquire high-density data;however,uncertainty and nonuniqueness inherent in ERT impede its usage for stratigraphy identification.This paper integrates ERT and onsite observations for the first time to propose a novel method for characterizing stratigraphic profiles.The method consists of two steps:(1)ERT for prior knowledge:ERT data are processed by soft clustering using the Gaussian mixture model,followed by probability smoothing to quantify its depthdependent uncertainty;and(2)Observations for calibration:a spatial sequential Bayesian updating(SSBU)algorithm is developed to update the prior knowledge based on likelihoods derived from onsite observations,namely topsoil and boreholes.The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through its application to a real slope site in Foshan,China.Comparative analysis with advanced borehole-driven methods highlights the superiority of incorporating ERT data in stratigraphic modeling,in terms of prediction accuracy at borehole locations and sensitivity to borehole data.Informed by ERT,reduced sensitivity to boreholes provides a fundamental solution to the longstanding challenge of sparse measurements.The paper further discusses the impact of ERT uncertainty on the proposed model using time-lapse measurements,the impact of model resolution,and applicability in engineering projects.This study,as a breakthrough in stratigraphic modeling,bridges gaps in combining geophysical and geotechnical data to address measurement sparsity and paves the way for more economical geotechnical exploration.展开更多
This paper presents a non-parametric topic model that captures not only the latent topics in text collections, but also how the topics change over space. Unlike other recent work that relies on either Gaussian assumpt...This paper presents a non-parametric topic model that captures not only the latent topics in text collections, but also how the topics change over space. Unlike other recent work that relies on either Gaussian assumptions or discretization of locations, here topics are associated with a distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process(ddC RP), and for each document, the observed words are influenced by the document's GPS-tag. Our model allows both unbound number and flexible distribution of the geographical variations of the topics' content. We develop a Gibbs sampler for the proposal, and compare it with existing models on a real data set basis.展开更多
Oxygen uptake plays a crucial role in the evaluation of endurance performance during exercise and is extensively utilized for metabolic assessment. This study records the oxygen uptake during the exercise phase (i.e.,...Oxygen uptake plays a crucial role in the evaluation of endurance performance during exercise and is extensively utilized for metabolic assessment. This study records the oxygen uptake during the exercise phase (i.e., ascending or descending) of the stair exercise, utilizing an experimental dataset that includes ten participants and covers various exercise periods. Based on the designed experiment protocol, a non-parametric modeling method with kernel-based regularization is generally applied to estimate the oxygen uptake changes during the switching stairs exercise, which closely resembles daily life activities. The modeling results indicate the effectiveness of the non-parametric modeling approach when compared to fixed-order models in terms of accuracy, stability, and compatibility. The influence of exercise duration on estimated fitness reveals that the model of the phase-oxygen uptake system is not time-invariant related to respiratory metabolism regulation and muscle fatigue. Consequently, it allows us to study the humans’ conversion mechanism at different metabolic rates and facilitates the standardization and development of exercise prescriptions.展开更多
Background Multibreed genomic prediction(MBGP)is crucial for improving prediction accuracy for breeds with small populations,for which limited data are often available.Recent studies have demonstrated that partitionin...Background Multibreed genomic prediction(MBGP)is crucial for improving prediction accuracy for breeds with small populations,for which limited data are often available.Recent studies have demonstrated that partitioning the genome into nonoverlapping blocks to model heterogeneous genetic(co)variance in multitrait models can achieve higher joint prediction accuracy.However,the block partitioning method,a key factor influencing model performance,has not been extensively explored.Results We introduce mbBayesABLD,a novel Bayesian MBGP model that partitions each chromosome into nonoverlapping blocks on the basis of linkage disequilibrium(LD)patterns.In this model,marker effects within each block are assumed to follow normal distributions with block-specific parameters.We employ simulated data as well as empirical datasets from pigs and beans to assess genomic prediction accuracy across different models using cross-validation.The results demonstrate that mbBayesABLD significantly outperforms conventional MBGP models,such as GBLUP and BayesR.For the meat marbling score trait in pigs,compared with GBLUP,which does not account for heterogeneous genetic(co)variance,mbBayesABLD improves the prediction accuracy for the small-population breed Landrace by 15.6%.Furthermore,our findings indicate that a moderate level of similarity in LD patterns between breeds(with an average correlation of 0.6)is sufficient to improve the prediction accuracy of the target breed.Conclusions This study presents a novel LD block-based approach for multibreed genomic prediction.Our work provides a practical tool for livestock breeding programs and offers new insights into leveraging genetic diversity across breeds for improved genomic prediction.展开更多
In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackl...In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.展开更多
To improve the accuracy and speed in cycle-accurate power estimation, this paper uses multiple dimensional coefficients to build a Bayesian inference dynamic power model. By analyzing the power distribution and intern...To improve the accuracy and speed in cycle-accurate power estimation, this paper uses multiple dimensional coefficients to build a Bayesian inference dynamic power model. By analyzing the power distribution and internal node state, we find the deficiency of only using port information. Then, we define the gate level number computing method and the concept of slice, and propose using slice analysis to distill switching density as coefficients in a special circuit stage and participate in Bayesian inference with port information. Experiments show that this method can reduce the power-per-cycle estimation error by 21.9% and the root mean square error by 25.0% compared with the original model, and maintain a 700 ＋ speedup compared with the existing gate-level power analysis technique.展开更多
In order to classify the minimal hepatic encephalopathy （MHE） patients from healthy controls, the independent component analysis （ICA） is used to generate the default mode network （DMN） from resting-state functi...In order to classify the minimal hepatic encephalopathy （MHE） patients from healthy controls, the independent component analysis （ICA） is used to generate the default mode network （DMN） from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging （fMRI）. Then a Bayesian voxel- wised method, graphical-model-based multivariate analysis （GAMMA）, is used to explore the associations between abnormal functional integration within DMN and clinical variable. Without any prior knowledge, five machine learning methods, namely, support vector machines （SVMs）, classification and regression trees （ CART ）, logistic regression, the Bayesian network, and C4.5, are applied to the classification. The functional integration patterns were alternative within DMN, which have the power to predict MHE with an accuracy of 98%. The GAMMA method generating functional integration patterns within DMN can become a simple, objective, and common imaging biomarker for detecting MIIE and can serve as a supplement to the existing diagnostic methods.展开更多
BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC...BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC as well as to identify the role of adjuvant therapy.METHODS Patients with curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma(T3 and T4)were selected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database between 2004 and 2015.A survival prediction model based on Bayesian network(BN)was constructed using the tree-augmented na?ve Bayes algorithm,and composite importance measures were applied to rank the influence of factors on survival.The dataset was divided into a training dataset to establish the BN model and a testing dataset to test the model randomly at a ratio of 7:3.The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model accuracy.RESULTS A total of 818 patients met the inclusion criteria.The median survival time was 9.0 mo.The accuracy of BN model was 69.67%,and the area under the curve value for the testing dataset was 77.72%.Adjuvant radiation,adjuvant chemotherapy(CTx),T stage,scope of regional lymph node surgery,and radiation sequence were ranked as the top five prognostic factors.A survival prediction table was established based on T stage,N stage,adjuvant radiotherapy(XRT),and CTx.The distribution of the survival time(>9.0 mo)was affected by different treatments with the order of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy(cXRT)>adjuvant radiation>adjuvant chemotherapy>surgery alone.For patients with node-positive disease,the larger benefit predicted by the model is adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.The survival analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the different adjuvant therapy groups(log rank,surgery alone vs CTx,P<0.001;surgery alone vs XRT,P=0.014;surgery alone vs cXRT,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The BN-based survival prediction model can be used as a decision-making support tool for advanced GBC patients.Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is expected to improve the survival significantly for patients with node-positive disease.展开更多
Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples acco...Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.展开更多
Bayesian regularized BP neural network（BRBPNN） technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of t...Bayesian regularized BP neural network（BRBPNN） technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000？8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth（SD） 〉 electrical conductivity （EC）. Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus（TP） and total nitrogen（TN） were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data（chlorophyll-α prediction） and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.展开更多
The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) models are still the workhorse in current engineering applications due to its high efficiency and robustness. However, the closure coefficients of RANS turbulence models are d...The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) models are still the workhorse in current engineering applications due to its high efficiency and robustness. However, the closure coefficients of RANS turbulence models are determined by model builders according to some simple fundamental flows, and the suggested values may not be applicable to complex flows, especially supersonic jet interaction flow. In this work, the Bayesian method is employed to recalibrate the closure coefficients of Spalart-Allmaras(SA) turbulence model to improve its performance in supersonic jet interaction problem and quantify the uncertainty of wall pressure and separation length. The embedded model error approach is applied to the Bayesian uncertainty analysis. Firstly, the total Sobol index is calculated by non-intrusive polynomial chaos method to represent the sensitivity of wall pressure and separation length to model parameters. Then, the pressure data and the separation length are respectively served as calibration data to get the posterior uncertainty of model parameters and Quantities of Interests(Qo Is). The results show that the relative error of the wall pressure predicted by the SA turbulence model can be reduced from 14.99% to 2.95% through effective Bayesian parameter estimation. Besides, the calibration effects of four likelihood functions are systematically evaluated. The posterior uncertainties of wall pressure and separation length estimated by different likelihood functions are significantly discrepant, and the Maximum a Posteriori(MAP) values of parameters inferred by all functions show better performance than the nominal values. Finally, the closure coefficients are also estimated at different jet total pressures. The similar posterior distributions of model parameters are obtained in different cases, and the MAP values of parameters calibrated in one case are also applicable to other cases.展开更多
When modeling a stealth aircraft with low RCS（Radar Cross Section）, conventional parameter estimation methods may cause a deviation from the actual distribution, owing to the fact that the characteristic parameters ...When modeling a stealth aircraft with low RCS（Radar Cross Section）, conventional parameter estimation methods may cause a deviation from the actual distribution, owing to the fact that the characteristic parameters are estimated via directly calculating the statistics of RCS. The Bayesian–Markov Chain Monte Carlo（Bayesian-MCMC） method is introduced herein to estimate the parameters so as to improve the fitting accuracies of fluctuation models. The parameter estimations of the lognormal and the Legendre polynomial models are reformulated in the Bayesian framework. The MCMC algorithm is then adopted to calculate the parameter estimates. Numerical results show that the distribution curves obtained by the proposed method exhibit improved consistence with the actual ones, compared with those fitted by the conventional method. The fitting accuracy could be improved by no less than 25% for both fluctuation models, which implies that the Bayesian-MCMC method might be a good candidate among the optimal parameter estimation methods for stealth aircraft RCS models.展开更多
文摘The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determining whether there is any change in the biomarker of the patient. It is important to study how the biomarker changes due to treatment and whether for different individuals located in separate centers can be clustered together since they might have different distributions. The study is motivated by a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model, which is more flexible when compared to the Bayesian Parametric models and is capable of borrowing information across different centers allowing them to be grouped together. To this end, this research modeled Biological markers taking into consideration the Surrogate markers. The study employed the nested Dirichlet process prior, which is easily peaceable on different distributions for several centers, with centers from the same Dirichlet process component clustered automatically together. The study sampled from the posterior by use of Markov chain Monte carol algorithm. The model is illustrated using a simulation study to see how it performs on simulated data. Clearly, from the simulation study it was clear that, the model was capable of clustering data into different clusters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U23B20105).
文摘Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method for representing observational uncertainty and develops a two-step approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)framework using time-series data.Within the ABC framework,Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances are employed as uncertainty quantification metrics to delineate approximate likelihood functions in the initial and subsequent steps,respectively.A novel variational Bayesian Monte Carlo method is introduced to efficiently apply the ABC framework amidst observational uncertainty,resulting in rapid convergence and accurate parameter estimation with minimal iterations.The efficacy of the proposed updating strategy is validated by its application to a shear frame model excited by seismic wave and an aviation pump force sensor for thermal output analysis.The results affirm the efficiency,robustness,and practical applicability of the proposed method.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Non-profit Research Institution of CAF(CAFYBB2022ZA001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071065)。
文摘Although Quercus mongolica is a widely distributed,economically and ecologically important deciduous tree in northern China,models to accurately predict stand growth at a regional scale are limited.The physiological process model(3-PG)has the potential to predict stand growth dynamics under varying site conditions and climate change scenarios.Here,we used field inventory,tree ring sampling,and Bayesian calibration to parameterize a model for Q.mongolica.Stand volume and productivity were then predicted under present conditions and three future climate scenarios(RCP26,RCP45 and RCP85).Our results demonstrated that after Bayesian calibration,the posterior ranges of the sensitivity parameters apha Cx,wSx1000 and pRn accounted for 34%,45%and 65%,respectively,of their prior range.Calibration and validation results revealed a strong correlation between predicted and measured values(R^(2)>0.87,P<0.01),with<20%bias for all growth indicators.Stand volume was projected to increase by 145%and productivity by 80%by the year 2100 under the RCP85 scenario,although these projections may vary across regions.The present study developed a tailored set of 3-PG model parameters for Q.mongolica,based on a comprehensive range of climate conditions,stand structure,and age classes.These parameters offer a scientific basis to accurately predict growth of other monospecific oak or mixed-species stands.
文摘Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study primarily focuses on developing robust and practical hybrid models to predict the slope stability status of circular failure mode.For this purpose,three robust models were developed using a database including 627 case histories of slope stability status.The models were developed using the random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and extreme gradient boosting(XGB)techniques,employing 5-fold cross validation approach.To enhance the performance of models,this study employs Bayesian optimizer(BO)to fine-tuning their hyperparameters.The results indicate that the performance order of the three developed models is RF-BO>SVM-BO>XGB-BO.Furthermore,comparing the developed models with previous models,it was found that the RF-BO model can effectively determine the slope stability status with outstanding performance.This implies that the RF-BO model could serve as a dependable tool for project managers,assisting in the evaluation of slope stability during both the design and operational phases of projects,despite the inherent challenges in this domain.The results regarding the importance of influencing parameters indicate that cohesion,friction angle,and slope height exert the most significant impact on slope stability status.This suggests that concentrating on these parameters and employing the RF-BO model can effectively mitigate the severity of geohazards in the short-term and contribute to the attainment of long-term sustainable development objectives.
基金support from the Kementerian Pendidikan,Kebudayaan,Riset,dan Teknologi of Indonesia through Regular Fundamental Grant No.049/E5/PG.02.00.PL/2024.
文摘Despite extensive prevention efforts and research,dengue hemorrhagic fever(DHF)remains a major public health challenge,particularly in tropical regions,with significant social,economic,and health consequences.Statistical models are crucial in studying infectious DHF by providing a structured framework to analyze transmission dynamics between humans(hosts)and mosquitoes(vectors).Depending on the disease characteristics,different stochastic compartmental models can be employed.This research applies Bayesian Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation(INLA)to the SIR-SI model for DHF data.The method delivers accurate parameter estimates,improved computational efficiency,and effective integration with early warning systems.The model compared to existing work usingMarkovChainMonteCarlo(MCMC)usingmonthlyDHF data from10 districts inKendari-Indonesia from2020–2023.WhileMCMC requires 10,000 iterations with an 80,000 burn-in,INLA achieves parameter convergence with just 10,000 iterations.The parameter estimation results show that INLA provides a better fit,with the lowest deviance=105.23,compared toMCMC.Risk analysis using INLA highlights dengue case dynamics fromJanuary toMay each year.Kadia and Wua-Wua districts consistently show high case numbers,emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in Kendari City.Early surveillance and control efforts are essential to curb mosquito breeding in these areas starting in January.In contrast,the Puuwatu,Kambu,and Kendari Barat districts are sporadic outbreaks,often linked to cases originating in Kadia andWua-Wua districts.
基金financial support from the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq)and the Federal University of Ouro PretoFinancial support from the Minas Gerais Research Foundation(FAPEMIG)under grant number APQ-06559-24 is also gratefully acknowledged。
文摘This study investigated forest recovery in the Atlantic Rainforest and Rupestrian Grassland of Brazil using the diffusive-logistic growth(DLG)model.This model simulates vegetation growth in the two mountain biomes considering spatial location,time,and two key parameters:diffusion rate and growth rate.A Bayesian framework is employed to analyze the model's parameters and assess prediction uncertainties.Satellite imagery from 1992 and 2022 was used for model calibration and validation.By solving the DLG model using the finite difference method,we predicted a 6.6%–51.1%increase in vegetation density for the Atlantic Rainforest and a 5.3%–99.9%increase for the Rupestrian Grassland over 30 years,with the latter showing slower recovery but achieving a better model fit(lower RMSE)compared to the Atlantic Rainforest.The Bayesian approach revealed well-defined parameter distributions and lower parameter values for the Rupestrian Grassland,supporting the slower recovery prediction.Importantly,the model achieved good agreement with observed vegetation patterns in unseen validation data for both biomes.While there were minor spatial variations in accuracy,the overall distributions of predicted and observed vegetation density were comparable.Furthermore,this study highlights the importance of considering uncertainty in model predictions.Bayesian inference allowed us to quantify this uncertainty,demonstrating that the model's performance can vary across locations.Our approach provides valuable insights into forest regeneration process uncertainties,enabling comparisons of modeled scenarios at different recovery stages for better decision-making in these critical mountain biomes.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program(Grant No.2024YFB3312700)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52405541)the Changzhou Municipal Sci&Tech Program(Grant No.CJ20241131)。
文摘Under the paradigm of Industry 5.0,intelligent manufacturing transcends mere efficiency enhancement by emphasizing human-machine collaboration,where human expertise plays a central role in assembly processes.Despite advancements in intelligent and digital technologies,assembly process design still heavily relies on manual knowledge reuse,and inefficiencies and inconsistent quality in process documentation are caused.To address the aforementioned issues,this paper proposes a knowledge push method of complex product assembly process design based on distillation model-based dynamically enhanced graph and Bayesian network.First,an initial knowledge graph is constructed using a BERT-BiLSTM-CRF model trained with integrated human expertise and a fine-tuned large language model.Then,a confidence-based dynamic weighted fusion strategy is employed to achieve dynamic incremental construction of the knowledge graph with low resource consumption.Subsequently,a Bayesian network model is constructed based on the relationships between assembly components,assembly features,and operations.Bayesian network reasoning is used to push assembly process knowledge under different design requirements.Finally,the feasibility of the Bayesian network construction method and the effectiveness of Bayesian network reasoning are verified through a specific example,significantly improving the utilization of assembly process knowledge and the efficiency of assembly process design.
基金the financial support from the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2021YFC3001003)Science and Technology Development Fund,Macao SAR(File No.0056/2023/RIB2)Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.2022A0505030019).
文摘Challenges in stratigraphic modeling arise from underground uncertainty.While borehole exploration is reliable,it remains sparse due to economic and site constraints.Electrical resistivity tomography(ERT)as a cost-effective geophysical technique can acquire high-density data;however,uncertainty and nonuniqueness inherent in ERT impede its usage for stratigraphy identification.This paper integrates ERT and onsite observations for the first time to propose a novel method for characterizing stratigraphic profiles.The method consists of two steps:(1)ERT for prior knowledge:ERT data are processed by soft clustering using the Gaussian mixture model,followed by probability smoothing to quantify its depthdependent uncertainty;and(2)Observations for calibration:a spatial sequential Bayesian updating(SSBU)algorithm is developed to update the prior knowledge based on likelihoods derived from onsite observations,namely topsoil and boreholes.The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through its application to a real slope site in Foshan,China.Comparative analysis with advanced borehole-driven methods highlights the superiority of incorporating ERT data in stratigraphic modeling,in terms of prediction accuracy at borehole locations and sensitivity to borehole data.Informed by ERT,reduced sensitivity to boreholes provides a fundamental solution to the longstanding challenge of sparse measurements.The paper further discusses the impact of ERT uncertainty on the proposed model using time-lapse measurements,the impact of model resolution,and applicability in engineering projects.This study,as a breakthrough in stratigraphic modeling,bridges gaps in combining geophysical and geotechnical data to address measurement sparsity and paves the way for more economical geotechnical exploration.
基金Supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2012AA011005)
文摘This paper presents a non-parametric topic model that captures not only the latent topics in text collections, but also how the topics change over space. Unlike other recent work that relies on either Gaussian assumptions or discretization of locations, here topics are associated with a distance dependent Chinese Restaurant Process(ddC RP), and for each document, the observed words are influenced by the document's GPS-tag. Our model allows both unbound number and flexible distribution of the geographical variations of the topics' content. We develop a Gibbs sampler for the proposal, and compare it with existing models on a real data set basis.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62103449)the Start-up Research Fund of Southeast University(RF1028623007)the Zhishan Youth Scholar Support Program of Southeast University(2242023R40044).
文摘Oxygen uptake plays a crucial role in the evaluation of endurance performance during exercise and is extensively utilized for metabolic assessment. This study records the oxygen uptake during the exercise phase (i.e., ascending or descending) of the stair exercise, utilizing an experimental dataset that includes ten participants and covers various exercise periods. Based on the designed experiment protocol, a non-parametric modeling method with kernel-based regularization is generally applied to estimate the oxygen uptake changes during the switching stairs exercise, which closely resembles daily life activities. The modeling results indicate the effectiveness of the non-parametric modeling approach when compared to fixed-order models in terms of accuracy, stability, and compatibility. The influence of exercise duration on estimated fitness reveals that the model of the phase-oxygen uptake system is not time-invariant related to respiratory metabolism regulation and muscle fatigue. Consequently, it allows us to study the humans’ conversion mechanism at different metabolic rates and facilitates the standardization and development of exercise prescriptions.
基金supported by the Biological Breeding-Major Projects in National Science and Technology(No.2023ZD0404405)the Earmarked Fund for China Agriculture Research System(No.CARS-pig-35)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.3227284,32302708)the 2115 Talent Development Program of China Agricultural University,the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(No.2023TC196)the Seed Industry Revitalization Action Project of Guangdong Province(No.2024-XPY-06-001)。
文摘Background Multibreed genomic prediction(MBGP)is crucial for improving prediction accuracy for breeds with small populations,for which limited data are often available.Recent studies have demonstrated that partitioning the genome into nonoverlapping blocks to model heterogeneous genetic(co)variance in multitrait models can achieve higher joint prediction accuracy.However,the block partitioning method,a key factor influencing model performance,has not been extensively explored.Results We introduce mbBayesABLD,a novel Bayesian MBGP model that partitions each chromosome into nonoverlapping blocks on the basis of linkage disequilibrium(LD)patterns.In this model,marker effects within each block are assumed to follow normal distributions with block-specific parameters.We employ simulated data as well as empirical datasets from pigs and beans to assess genomic prediction accuracy across different models using cross-validation.The results demonstrate that mbBayesABLD significantly outperforms conventional MBGP models,such as GBLUP and BayesR.For the meat marbling score trait in pigs,compared with GBLUP,which does not account for heterogeneous genetic(co)variance,mbBayesABLD improves the prediction accuracy for the small-population breed Landrace by 15.6%.Furthermore,our findings indicate that a moderate level of similarity in LD patterns between breeds(with an average correlation of 0.6)is sufficient to improve the prediction accuracy of the target breed.Conclusions This study presents a novel LD block-based approach for multibreed genomic prediction.Our work provides a practical tool for livestock breeding programs and offers new insights into leveraging genetic diversity across breeds for improved genomic prediction.
基金The National Science Foundation by Changjiang Scholarship of Ministry of Education of China(No.BCS-0527508)the Joint Research Fund for Overseas Natural Science of China(No.51250110075)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.SBK200910046)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.0901005C)
文摘In order to improve crash occurrence models to account for the influence of various contributing factors, a conditional autoregressive negative binomial （CAR-NB） model is employed to allow for overdispersion （tackled by the NB component）, unobserved heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation （captured by the CAR process）, using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and the Gibbs sampler. Statistical tests suggest that the CAR-NB model is preferred over the CAR-Poisson, NB, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated NB models, due to its lower prediction errors and more robust parameter inference. The study results show that crash frequency and fatalities are positively associated with the number of lanes, curve length, annual average daily traffic （AADT） per lane, as well as rainfall. Speed limit and the distances to the nearest hospitals have negative associations with segment-based crash counts but positive associations with fatality counts, presumably as a result of worsened collision impacts at higher speed and time loss during transporting crash victims.
文摘To improve the accuracy and speed in cycle-accurate power estimation, this paper uses multiple dimensional coefficients to build a Bayesian inference dynamic power model. By analyzing the power distribution and internal node state, we find the deficiency of only using port information. Then, we define the gate level number computing method and the concept of slice, and propose using slice analysis to distill switching density as coefficients in a special circuit stage and participate in Bayesian inference with port information. Experiments show that this method can reduce the power-per-cycle estimation error by 21.9% and the root mean square error by 25.0% compared with the original model, and maintain a 700 ＋ speedup compared with the existing gate-level power analysis technique.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.8123003481271739+2 种基金81501453)the Special Program of Medical Science of Jiangsu Province(No.BL2013029)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20141342)
文摘In order to classify the minimal hepatic encephalopathy （MHE） patients from healthy controls, the independent component analysis （ICA） is used to generate the default mode network （DMN） from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging （fMRI）. Then a Bayesian voxel- wised method, graphical-model-based multivariate analysis （GAMMA）, is used to explore the associations between abnormal functional integration within DMN and clinical variable. Without any prior knowledge, five machine learning methods, namely, support vector machines （SVMs）, classification and regression trees （ CART ）, logistic regression, the Bayesian network, and C4.5, are applied to the classification. The functional integration patterns were alternative within DMN, which have the power to predict MHE with an accuracy of 98%. The GAMMA method generating functional integration patterns within DMN can become a simple, objective, and common imaging biomarker for detecting MIIE and can serve as a supplement to the existing diagnostic methods.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81572420 and No.71871181the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province,No.2017ZDXM-SF-055the Multicenter Clinical Research Project of School of Medicine,Shanghai Jiaotong University,No.DLY201807
文摘BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC as well as to identify the role of adjuvant therapy.METHODS Patients with curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma(T3 and T4)were selected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database between 2004 and 2015.A survival prediction model based on Bayesian network(BN)was constructed using the tree-augmented na?ve Bayes algorithm,and composite importance measures were applied to rank the influence of factors on survival.The dataset was divided into a training dataset to establish the BN model and a testing dataset to test the model randomly at a ratio of 7:3.The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model accuracy.RESULTS A total of 818 patients met the inclusion criteria.The median survival time was 9.0 mo.The accuracy of BN model was 69.67%,and the area under the curve value for the testing dataset was 77.72%.Adjuvant radiation,adjuvant chemotherapy(CTx),T stage,scope of regional lymph node surgery,and radiation sequence were ranked as the top five prognostic factors.A survival prediction table was established based on T stage,N stage,adjuvant radiotherapy(XRT),and CTx.The distribution of the survival time(>9.0 mo)was affected by different treatments with the order of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy(cXRT)>adjuvant radiation>adjuvant chemotherapy>surgery alone.For patients with node-positive disease,the larger benefit predicted by the model is adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.The survival analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the different adjuvant therapy groups(log rank,surgery alone vs CTx,P<0.001;surgery alone vs XRT,P=0.014;surgery alone vs cXRT,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The BN-based survival prediction model can be used as a decision-making support tool for advanced GBC patients.Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is expected to improve the survival significantly for patients with node-positive disease.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA040309)National BasicResearch Program of China (2007CB714000)
文摘Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.
文摘Bayesian regularized BP neural network（BRBPNN） technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000？8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth（SD） 〉 electrical conductivity （EC）. Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus（TP） and total nitrogen（TN） were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data（chlorophyll-α prediction） and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.
基金supported by the National Numerical Windtunnel Project,China(No.NNW2019ZT1-A03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11721202)。
文摘The Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS) models are still the workhorse in current engineering applications due to its high efficiency and robustness. However, the closure coefficients of RANS turbulence models are determined by model builders according to some simple fundamental flows, and the suggested values may not be applicable to complex flows, especially supersonic jet interaction flow. In this work, the Bayesian method is employed to recalibrate the closure coefficients of Spalart-Allmaras(SA) turbulence model to improve its performance in supersonic jet interaction problem and quantify the uncertainty of wall pressure and separation length. The embedded model error approach is applied to the Bayesian uncertainty analysis. Firstly, the total Sobol index is calculated by non-intrusive polynomial chaos method to represent the sensitivity of wall pressure and separation length to model parameters. Then, the pressure data and the separation length are respectively served as calibration data to get the posterior uncertainty of model parameters and Quantities of Interests(Qo Is). The results show that the relative error of the wall pressure predicted by the SA turbulence model can be reduced from 14.99% to 2.95% through effective Bayesian parameter estimation. Besides, the calibration effects of four likelihood functions are systematically evaluated. The posterior uncertainties of wall pressure and separation length estimated by different likelihood functions are significantly discrepant, and the Maximum a Posteriori(MAP) values of parameters inferred by all functions show better performance than the nominal values. Finally, the closure coefficients are also estimated at different jet total pressures. The similar posterior distributions of model parameters are obtained in different cases, and the MAP values of parameters calibrated in one case are also applicable to other cases.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61101173)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.613206)+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2012AA01A308)the State Scholarship Fund by the China Scholarship Council(CSC),and the Oversea Academic Training Funds,and University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(UESTC)
文摘When modeling a stealth aircraft with low RCS（Radar Cross Section）, conventional parameter estimation methods may cause a deviation from the actual distribution, owing to the fact that the characteristic parameters are estimated via directly calculating the statistics of RCS. The Bayesian–Markov Chain Monte Carlo（Bayesian-MCMC） method is introduced herein to estimate the parameters so as to improve the fitting accuracies of fluctuation models. The parameter estimations of the lognormal and the Legendre polynomial models are reformulated in the Bayesian framework. The MCMC algorithm is then adopted to calculate the parameter estimates. Numerical results show that the distribution curves obtained by the proposed method exhibit improved consistence with the actual ones, compared with those fitted by the conventional method. The fitting accuracy could be improved by no less than 25% for both fluctuation models, which implies that the Bayesian-MCMC method might be a good candidate among the optimal parameter estimation methods for stealth aircraft RCS models.
