With the popularization of microgrid construction and the connection of renewable energy sources to the power system,the problem of source and load uncertainty faced by the coordinated operation of multi-microgrid is ...With the popularization of microgrid construction and the connection of renewable energy sources to the power system,the problem of source and load uncertainty faced by the coordinated operation of multi-microgrid is becoming increasingly prominent,and the accuracy of typical scenario predictions is low.In order to improve the accuracy of scenario prediction under source and load uncertainty,this paper proposes a typical scenario identification model based on random forests and order parameters.Firstly,a method for ordinal parameter identification and quantification is provided for the coordinated operating mode of multi-microgrids,taking into account source-load uncertainty.Secondly,the dynamic change characteristics of the order parameters of the daily load curve,wind and solar curve,and load curve of typical scenarios are statistically analyzed to identify the key order parameters that have the most significant impact on the uncertainty of the load.Then,the order parameters and seasonal distribution are used as features to train a random forest classification model to achieve efficient scenario prediction.Finally,the simulation of actual data from a provincial distribution network shows that the proposed method can accurately classify typical scenarios with an accuracy rate of 92.7%.Additionally,sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess how changes in uncertainty levels affect the importance of each order parameter,allowing for adaptive uncertainty mitigation strategies.展开更多
This research investigates the influence of indoor and outdoor factors on photovoltaic(PV)power generation at Utrecht University to accurately predict PV system performance by identifying critical impact factors and i...This research investigates the influence of indoor and outdoor factors on photovoltaic(PV)power generation at Utrecht University to accurately predict PV system performance by identifying critical impact factors and improving renewable energy efficiency.To predict plant efficiency,nineteen variables are analyzed,consisting of nine indoor photovoltaic panel characteristics(Open Circuit Voltage(Voc),Short Circuit Current(Isc),Maximum Power(Pmpp),Maximum Voltage(Umpp),Maximum Current(Impp),Filling Factor(FF),Parallel Resistance(Rp),Series Resistance(Rs),Module Temperature)and ten environmental factors(Air Temperature,Air Humidity,Dew Point,Air Pressure,Irradiation,Irradiation Propagation,Wind Speed,Wind Speed Propagation,Wind Direction,Wind Direction Propagation).This study provides a new perspective not previously addressed in the literature.In this study,different machine learning methods such as Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline(MARS),Multiple Linear Regression(MLR),and Random Forest(RF)models are used to predict power values using data from installed PVpanels.Panel values obtained under real field conditions were used to train the models,and the results were compared.The Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)model was achieved with the highest classification accuracy of 0.990%.The machine learning models used for solar energy forecasting show high performance and produce results close to actual values.Models like Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)and Random Forest(RF)can be used in diverse locations based on load demand.展开更多
In the reliability designing procedure of the vehicle components, when the distribution styles of the random variables are unknown or non-normal distribution, the result evaluated contains great error or even is wrong...In the reliability designing procedure of the vehicle components, when the distribution styles of the random variables are unknown or non-normal distribution, the result evaluated contains great error or even is wrong if the reliability value R is larger than 1 by using the existent method, in which case the formula is necessary to be revised. This is obviously inconvenient for programming. Combining reliability-based optimization theory, robust designing method and reliability based sensitivity analysis, a new method for reliability robust designing is proposed. Therefore the influence level of the designing parameters’ changing to the reliability of vehicle components can be obtained. The reliability sensitivity with respect to design parameters is viewed as a sub-objective function in the multi-objective optimization problem satisfying reliability constraints. Given the first four moments of basic random variables, a fourth-moment technique and the proposed optimization procedure can obtain reliability-based robust design of automobile components with non-normal distribution parameters accurately and quickly. By using the proposed method, the distribution style of the random parameters is relaxed. Therefore it is much closer to the actual reliability problems. The numerical examples indicate the following: (1) The reliability value obtained by the robust method proposed increases (】0.04%) comparing to the value obtained by the ordinary optimization algorithm; (2) The absolute value of reliability-based sensitivity decreases (】0.01%), and the robustness of the products’ quality is improved accordingly. Utilizing the reliability-based optimization and robust design method in the reliability designing procedure reduces the manufacture cost and provides the theoretical basis for the reliability and robust design of the vehicle components.展开更多
A new method for calculating the failure probabilityof structures with random parameters is proposed based onmultivariate power polynomial expansion, in which te uncertain quantities include material properties, struc...A new method for calculating the failure probabilityof structures with random parameters is proposed based onmultivariate power polynomial expansion, in which te uncertain quantities include material properties, structuralgeometric characteristics and static loads. The structuralresponse is first expressed as a multivariable power polynomialexpansion, of which the coefficients ae then determined by utilizing the higher-order perturbation technique and Galerkinprojection scheme. Then, the final performance function ofthe structure is determined. Due to the explicitness of theperformance function, a multifold integral of the structuralfailure probability can be calculated directly by the Monte Carlo simulation, which only requires a smal amount ofcomputation time. Two numerical examples ae presented toillustate te accuracy ad efficiency of te proposed metiod. It is shown that compaed with the widely used first-orderreliability method （ FORM） and second-order reliabilitymethod （ SORM）, te results of the proposed method are closer to that of the direct Monte Carlo metiod,and it requires much less computational time.展开更多
Heavy metals from mica waste not only deteriorate the soil quality but also results in the uptake of metals in the crop.The present investigation was conducted to evaluate the effects of different fractions of metals ...Heavy metals from mica waste not only deteriorate the soil quality but also results in the uptake of metals in the crop.The present investigation was conducted to evaluate the effects of different fractions of metals on the uptake in rice,soil microbial and biochemical properties in mica waste-contaminated soils of Jharkhand,India.From each active mine,soil samples were randomly collected at distances of<50 m(zone 1),50–100 m(zone 2),and>100 m(zone 3).Sequential metal extraction was used to determine the fractions of different metals(nickel(Ni),cadmium(Cd),chromium(Cr)and lead(Pb))including water-soluble(Ws)and exchangeable metals(Ex),carbonate-bound metals(CBD),Fe/Mn oxide(OXD)bound metals,organically bound metals(ORG),and residues(RS).The Ni,Cr,Cd and Pb in rice grain were 0.83±0.41,0.41±0.19,0.21±0.14 and 0.17±0.08 mg/kg respectively.From the variable importance plot of the random forest(RF)algorithm,the Ws fraction of Ni,Cr and Cd and Ex fraction of Pb was the most important predictor for rice grain metal content.Further,the partial dependence plots(PDP)give us an insight into the role of the two most important metal fractions on rice grain metal content.The microbial and enzyme activity was significantly and negatively correlated with Ws and Ex metal fractions,indicating that water-soluble and exchangeable fractions exert a strong inhibitory effect on the soil microbiological parameters and enzyme activities.展开更多
To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a deriv...To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.展开更多
In this paper,a time–frequency algorithm based on adaptive chirplet transform for parameter modeling and identification of Linear Time-Varying(LTV)systems under random excitation is presented.It is assumed that the s...In this paper,a time–frequency algorithm based on adaptive chirplet transform for parameter modeling and identification of Linear Time-Varying(LTV)systems under random excitation is presented.It is assumed that the solution of responses of LTV structures is expressed as the sum of multicomponent Linear Frequency Modulated(LFM)signals in a short-time.Then the measured acceleration response is used to perform the adaptive chirplet transform,in which an integral algorithm is employed to reconstruct the velocity and displacement responses.The vibration differential equation with time-varying coefficients is transformed into a simple linear equation.Furthermore,for systems under random excitation,the input–output relation based on correlation function is also derived to estimate the parameters including physicals parameters and instantaneous modal parameters.The full procedure of the method is presented and validated by using simulated responses.The results show that the presented method is accurate and robust for various LTV systems under random excitation.展开更多
In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecti...In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists characteristic and behavior,drivers characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2%,40.0%,86.3%,and 211.5%,respectively.Moreover,drivers inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5%,186.5%,69.3%,and 22.7%,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity.展开更多
This paper introduces the principle of genetic algorithm and the basic method of solving Markov random field parameters.Focusing on the shortcomings in present methods,a new method based on genetic algorithms is propo...This paper introduces the principle of genetic algorithm and the basic method of solving Markov random field parameters.Focusing on the shortcomings in present methods,a new method based on genetic algorithms is proposed to solve the parameters in the Markov random field.The detailed procedure is discussed.On the basis of the parameters solved by genetic algorithms,some experiments on classification of aerial images are given.Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and the classification results are satisfactory.展开更多
This paper aims to study the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation of the three-dimensional Rossler system with an arch-like bounded random parameter. First, we transform the stochastic RSssler system into its equiva...This paper aims to study the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation of the three-dimensional Rossler system with an arch-like bounded random parameter. First, we transform the stochastic RSssler system into its equivalent deterministic one in the sense of minimal residual error by the Chebyshev polynomial approximation method. Then, we explore the dynamical behaviour of the stochastic RSssler system through its equivalent deterministic system by numerical simulations. The numerical results show that some stochastic period-doubling bifurcation, akin to the conventional one in the deterministic case, may also appear in the stochastic Rossler system. In addition, we also examine the influence of the random parameter intensity on bifurcation phenomena in the stochastic Rossler system.展开更多
Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation is explored in a forced Duffing system with a bounded random parameter as an additional weak harmonic perturbation added to the system. Firstly, the biharmonic driven Duffing sys...Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation is explored in a forced Duffing system with a bounded random parameter as an additional weak harmonic perturbation added to the system. Firstly, the biharmonic driven Duffing system with a random parameter is reduced to its equivalent deterministic one, and then the responses of the stochastic system can be obtained by available effective numerical methods. Finally, numerical simulations show that the phase of the additional weak harmonic perturbation has great influence on the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation in the biharmonic driven Duffing system. It is emphasized that, different from the deterministic biharmonic driven Duffing system, the intensity of random parameter in the Duffing system can also be taken as a bifurcation parameter, which can lead to the stochastic period-doubling bifurcations.展开更多
(Co) variance components and genetic parameters were estimated for milk yield of Iranian Holstein cows. A total number of 68,945 milk test-day records of first, second and third lactations of 8515 animals from 100 sir...(Co) variance components and genetic parameters were estimated for milk yield of Iranian Holstein cows. A total number of 68,945 milk test-day records of first, second and third lactations of 8515 animals from 100 sires and 7743 dams originated from 34 herds collected during 2007 to 2009 by Iranian animal breeding center were used. The ASReml computer program was used to analyze the milk test-day records using the random regression procedure. Herd test date (HTD), milking times per day (milking frequency), number of lactations, year of birth, year of calving, age of animal at calving and days in milk (DIM) considered as fixed effects and additive genetic effects and animal permanent environmental effects were considered as the random effects. Additive genetic variance, animal permanent environment variance, residual variance, phenotypic variance, heritability and repeatability were estimated during different months of lactation between 5.7 - 19.6, 15.3 - 27.1, 31.4 - 17.2, 45.8 - 64.83, 0.1 - 0.32 and 0.4 - 0.6, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation were also estimated between months of lactation in range of -0.35 - 0.98 and 0.03 - 0.67, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation both showed the same changing pattern and they decreased as the interval between months of lactation increased.展开更多
This paper proposes a method for determining the stabilizing parameter regions for general delay control systems based on randomized sampling. A delay control system is converted into a unified state-space form. The n...This paper proposes a method for determining the stabilizing parameter regions for general delay control systems based on randomized sampling. A delay control system is converted into a unified state-space form. The numerical stability condition is developed and checked for sample points in the parameter space. These points are separated into stable and unstable regions by the decision function obtained from some learning method. The proposed method is very general and applied to a much wider range of systems than the existing methods in the literature. The proposed method is illustrated with examples.展开更多
In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model e...In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.展开更多
When initializing cryptographic systems or running cryptographic protocols, the randomness of critical parameters, like keys or key components, is one of the most crucial aspects. But, randomly chosen parameters come ...When initializing cryptographic systems or running cryptographic protocols, the randomness of critical parameters, like keys or key components, is one of the most crucial aspects. But, randomly chosen parameters come with the intrinsic chance of duplicates, which finally may cause cryptographic systems including RSA, ElGamal and Zero-Knowledge proofs to become insecure. When concerning digital identifiers, we need uniqueness in order to correctly identify a specific action or object. Unfortunately we also need randomness here. Without randomness, actions become linkable to each other or to their initiator’s digital identity. So ideally the employed (cryptographic) parameters should fulfill two potentially conflicting requirements simultaneously: randomness and uniqueness. This article proposes an efficient mechanism to provide both attributes at the same time without highly constraining the first one and never violating the second one. After defining five requirements on random number generators and discussing related work, we will describe the core concept of the generation mechanism. Subsequently we will prove the postulated properties (security, randomness, uniqueness, efficiency and privacy protection) and present some application scenarios including system-wide unique parameters, cryptographic keys and components, identifiers and digital pseudonyms.展开更多
To enhance the efficiency of stochastic vibration analysis for the Train-Track-Bridge(TTB)coupled system,this paper proposes a prediction method based on a Genetic Algorithm-optimized Backpropagation(GA-BP)neural netw...To enhance the efficiency of stochastic vibration analysis for the Train-Track-Bridge(TTB)coupled system,this paper proposes a prediction method based on a Genetic Algorithm-optimized Backpropagation(GA-BP)neural network.First,initial track irregularity samples and random parameter sets of the Vehicle-Bridge System(VBS)are generated using the stochastic harmonic function method.Then,the stochastic dynamic responses corresponding to the sample sets are calculated using a developed stochastic vibration analysis model of the TTB system.The track irregularity data and vehicle-bridge random parameters are used as input variables,while the corresponding stochastic responses serve as output variables for training the BP neural network to construct the prediction model.Subsequently,the Genetic Algorithm(GA)is applied to optimize the BP neural network by considering the randomness in excitation and parameters of the TTB system,improving model accuracy.After optimization,the trained GA-BP model enables rapid and accurate prediction of vehicle-bridge responses.To validate the proposed method,predictions of vehicle-bridge responses under varying train speeds are compared with numerical simulation results.The findings demonstrate that the proposed method offers notable advantages in predicting the stochastic vibration response of high-speed railway TTB coupled systems.展开更多
The prediction of slope stability is a complex nonlinear problem.This paper proposes a new method based on the random forest(RF)algorithm to study the rocky slopes stability.Taking the Bukit Merah,Perak and Twin Peak(...The prediction of slope stability is a complex nonlinear problem.This paper proposes a new method based on the random forest(RF)algorithm to study the rocky slopes stability.Taking the Bukit Merah,Perak and Twin Peak(Kuala Lumpur)as the study area,the slope characteristics of geometrical parameters are obtained from a multidisciplinary approach(consisting of geological,geotechnical,and remote sensing analyses).18 factors,including rock strength,rock quality designation(RQD),joint spacing,continuity,openness,roughness,filling,weathering,water seepage,temperature,vegetation index,water index,and orientation,are selected to construct model input variables while the factor of safety(FOS)functions as an output.The area under the curve(AUC)value of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve is obtained with precision and accuracy and used to analyse the predictive model ability.With a large training set and predicted parameters,an area under the ROC curve(the AUC)of 0.95 is achieved.A precision score of 0.88 is obtained,indicating that the model has a low false positive rate and correctly identifies a substantial number of true positives.The findings emphasise the importance of using a variety of terrain characteristics and different approaches to characterise the rock slope.展开更多
In view of the feature of flight flutter test data with atmospheric turbulence excitation, a method which combines wavelet transformation with random decrement technique for identifying flight flutter modal parameters...In view of the feature of flight flutter test data with atmospheric turbulence excitation, a method which combines wavelet transformation with random decrement technique for identifying flight flutter modal parameters is presented. This approach firstly uses random decrement technique to gain free decays corresponding to the acceleration response of the structure to some non-zero initial conditions. Then the continuous Morlet wavelet transformation of the free decays is performed; and the Parseval formula and residue theorem are used to simplify the transformation. The maximal wavelet transformation coefficients in different scales are searched out by means of band-filtering characteristic of Morlet wavelet, and then the modal parameters are identified according to the relationships with maximal modulus and angle of the wavelet transform. In addition, the condition of modal uncoupling is discussed according to variation trend of flight flutter modal parameters in the flight flutter state. The analysis results of simulation and flight flutter test data show that this approach is not only simple, effective and feasible, but also having good noise immunity.展开更多
Traditional modal parameter identifi cation methods have many disadvantages,especially when used for processing nonlinear and non-stationary signals.In addition,they are usually not able to accurately identify the dam...Traditional modal parameter identifi cation methods have many disadvantages,especially when used for processing nonlinear and non-stationary signals.In addition,they are usually not able to accurately identify the damping ratio and damage.In this study,methods based on the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) are investigated for structural modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis.First,mirror extension and prediction via a radial basis function(RBF) neural network are used to restrain the troublesome end-effect issue in empirical mode decomposition(EMD),which is a crucial part of HHT.Then,the approaches based on HHT combined with other techniques,such as the random decrement technique(RDT),natural excitation technique(NExT) and stochastic subspace identifi cation(SSI),are proposed to identify modal parameters of structures.Furthermore,a damage diagnosis method based on the HHT is also proposed.Time-varying instantaneous frequency and instantaneous energy are used to identify the damage evolution of the structure.The relative amplitude of the Hilbert marginal spectrum is used to identify the damage location of the structure.Finally,acceleration records at gauge points from shaking table testing of a 12-story reinforced concrete frame model are taken to validate the proposed approaches.The results show that the proposed approaches based on HHT for modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis are reliable and practical.展开更多
基金supported by Science and Technology Project Managed by the State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(No.J2024163).
文摘With the popularization of microgrid construction and the connection of renewable energy sources to the power system,the problem of source and load uncertainty faced by the coordinated operation of multi-microgrid is becoming increasingly prominent,and the accuracy of typical scenario predictions is low.In order to improve the accuracy of scenario prediction under source and load uncertainty,this paper proposes a typical scenario identification model based on random forests and order parameters.Firstly,a method for ordinal parameter identification and quantification is provided for the coordinated operating mode of multi-microgrids,taking into account source-load uncertainty.Secondly,the dynamic change characteristics of the order parameters of the daily load curve,wind and solar curve,and load curve of typical scenarios are statistically analyzed to identify the key order parameters that have the most significant impact on the uncertainty of the load.Then,the order parameters and seasonal distribution are used as features to train a random forest classification model to achieve efficient scenario prediction.Finally,the simulation of actual data from a provincial distribution network shows that the proposed method can accurately classify typical scenarios with an accuracy rate of 92.7%.Additionally,sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess how changes in uncertainty levels affect the importance of each order parameter,allowing for adaptive uncertainty mitigation strategies.
文摘This research investigates the influence of indoor and outdoor factors on photovoltaic(PV)power generation at Utrecht University to accurately predict PV system performance by identifying critical impact factors and improving renewable energy efficiency.To predict plant efficiency,nineteen variables are analyzed,consisting of nine indoor photovoltaic panel characteristics(Open Circuit Voltage(Voc),Short Circuit Current(Isc),Maximum Power(Pmpp),Maximum Voltage(Umpp),Maximum Current(Impp),Filling Factor(FF),Parallel Resistance(Rp),Series Resistance(Rs),Module Temperature)and ten environmental factors(Air Temperature,Air Humidity,Dew Point,Air Pressure,Irradiation,Irradiation Propagation,Wind Speed,Wind Speed Propagation,Wind Direction,Wind Direction Propagation).This study provides a new perspective not previously addressed in the literature.In this study,different machine learning methods such as Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline(MARS),Multiple Linear Regression(MLR),and Random Forest(RF)models are used to predict power values using data from installed PVpanels.Panel values obtained under real field conditions were used to train the models,and the results were compared.The Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)model was achieved with the highest classification accuracy of 0.990%.The machine learning models used for solar energy forecasting show high performance and produce results close to actual values.Models like Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)and Random Forest(RF)can be used in diverse locations based on load demand.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 51135003, U1234208, 51205050)New Teachers' Fund for Doctor Stations of Ministry of Education of China (Grant No.20110042120020)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China (Grant No. N110303003)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2011M500564)
文摘In the reliability designing procedure of the vehicle components, when the distribution styles of the random variables are unknown or non-normal distribution, the result evaluated contains great error or even is wrong if the reliability value R is larger than 1 by using the existent method, in which case the formula is necessary to be revised. This is obviously inconvenient for programming. Combining reliability-based optimization theory, robust designing method and reliability based sensitivity analysis, a new method for reliability robust designing is proposed. Therefore the influence level of the designing parameters’ changing to the reliability of vehicle components can be obtained. The reliability sensitivity with respect to design parameters is viewed as a sub-objective function in the multi-objective optimization problem satisfying reliability constraints. Given the first four moments of basic random variables, a fourth-moment technique and the proposed optimization procedure can obtain reliability-based robust design of automobile components with non-normal distribution parameters accurately and quickly. By using the proposed method, the distribution style of the random parameters is relaxed. Therefore it is much closer to the actual reliability problems. The numerical examples indicate the following: (1) The reliability value obtained by the robust method proposed increases (】0.04%) comparing to the value obtained by the ordinary optimization algorithm; (2) The absolute value of reliability-based sensitivity decreases (】0.01%), and the robustness of the products’ quality is improved accordingly. Utilizing the reliability-based optimization and robust design method in the reliability designing procedure reduces the manufacture cost and provides the theoretical basis for the reliability and robust design of the vehicle components.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51378407,51578431)
文摘A new method for calculating the failure probabilityof structures with random parameters is proposed based onmultivariate power polynomial expansion, in which te uncertain quantities include material properties, structuralgeometric characteristics and static loads. The structuralresponse is first expressed as a multivariable power polynomialexpansion, of which the coefficients ae then determined by utilizing the higher-order perturbation technique and Galerkinprojection scheme. Then, the final performance function ofthe structure is determined. Due to the explicitness of theperformance function, a multifold integral of the structuralfailure probability can be calculated directly by the Monte Carlo simulation, which only requires a smal amount ofcomputation time. Two numerical examples ae presented toillustate te accuracy ad efficiency of te proposed metiod. It is shown that compaed with the widely used first-orderreliability method （ FORM） and second-order reliabilitymethod （ SORM）, te results of the proposed method are closer to that of the direct Monte Carlo metiod,and it requires much less computational time.
文摘Heavy metals from mica waste not only deteriorate the soil quality but also results in the uptake of metals in the crop.The present investigation was conducted to evaluate the effects of different fractions of metals on the uptake in rice,soil microbial and biochemical properties in mica waste-contaminated soils of Jharkhand,India.From each active mine,soil samples were randomly collected at distances of<50 m(zone 1),50–100 m(zone 2),and>100 m(zone 3).Sequential metal extraction was used to determine the fractions of different metals(nickel(Ni),cadmium(Cd),chromium(Cr)and lead(Pb))including water-soluble(Ws)and exchangeable metals(Ex),carbonate-bound metals(CBD),Fe/Mn oxide(OXD)bound metals,organically bound metals(ORG),and residues(RS).The Ni,Cr,Cd and Pb in rice grain were 0.83±0.41,0.41±0.19,0.21±0.14 and 0.17±0.08 mg/kg respectively.From the variable importance plot of the random forest(RF)algorithm,the Ws fraction of Ni,Cr and Cd and Ex fraction of Pb was the most important predictor for rice grain metal content.Further,the partial dependence plots(PDP)give us an insight into the role of the two most important metal fractions on rice grain metal content.The microbial and enzyme activity was significantly and negatively correlated with Ws and Ex metal fractions,indicating that water-soluble and exchangeable fractions exert a strong inhibitory effect on the soil microbiological parameters and enzyme activities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42174011 and No.41874001).
文摘To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11172131 and 11232007)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions。
文摘In this paper,a time–frequency algorithm based on adaptive chirplet transform for parameter modeling and identification of Linear Time-Varying(LTV)systems under random excitation is presented.It is assumed that the solution of responses of LTV structures is expressed as the sum of multicomponent Linear Frequency Modulated(LFM)signals in a short-time.Then the measured acceleration response is used to perform the adaptive chirplet transform,in which an integral algorithm is employed to reconstruct the velocity and displacement responses.The vibration differential equation with time-varying coefficients is transformed into a simple linear equation.Furthermore,for systems under random excitation,the input–output relation based on correlation function is also derived to estimate the parameters including physicals parameters and instantaneous modal parameters.The full procedure of the method is presented and validated by using simulated responses.The results show that the presented method is accurate and robust for various LTV systems under random excitation.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC0803902).
文摘In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists characteristic and behavior,drivers characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2%,40.0%,86.3%,and 211.5%,respectively.Moreover,drivers inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5%,186.5%,69.3%,and 22.7%,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity.
文摘This paper introduces the principle of genetic algorithm and the basic method of solving Markov random field parameters.Focusing on the shortcomings in present methods,a new method based on genetic algorithms is proposed to solve the parameters in the Markov random field.The detailed procedure is discussed.On the basis of the parameters solved by genetic algorithms,some experiments on classification of aerial images are given.Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and the classification results are satisfactory.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10872165)
文摘This paper aims to study the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation of the three-dimensional Rossler system with an arch-like bounded random parameter. First, we transform the stochastic RSssler system into its equivalent deterministic one in the sense of minimal residual error by the Chebyshev polynomial approximation method. Then, we explore the dynamical behaviour of the stochastic RSssler system through its equivalent deterministic system by numerical simulations. The numerical results show that some stochastic period-doubling bifurcation, akin to the conventional one in the deterministic case, may also appear in the stochastic Rossler system. In addition, we also examine the influence of the random parameter intensity on bifurcation phenomena in the stochastic Rossler system.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos10472091and10332030)
文摘Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation is explored in a forced Duffing system with a bounded random parameter as an additional weak harmonic perturbation added to the system. Firstly, the biharmonic driven Duffing system with a random parameter is reduced to its equivalent deterministic one, and then the responses of the stochastic system can be obtained by available effective numerical methods. Finally, numerical simulations show that the phase of the additional weak harmonic perturbation has great influence on the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation in the biharmonic driven Duffing system. It is emphasized that, different from the deterministic biharmonic driven Duffing system, the intensity of random parameter in the Duffing system can also be taken as a bifurcation parameter, which can lead to the stochastic period-doubling bifurcations.
文摘(Co) variance components and genetic parameters were estimated for milk yield of Iranian Holstein cows. A total number of 68,945 milk test-day records of first, second and third lactations of 8515 animals from 100 sires and 7743 dams originated from 34 herds collected during 2007 to 2009 by Iranian animal breeding center were used. The ASReml computer program was used to analyze the milk test-day records using the random regression procedure. Herd test date (HTD), milking times per day (milking frequency), number of lactations, year of birth, year of calving, age of animal at calving and days in milk (DIM) considered as fixed effects and additive genetic effects and animal permanent environmental effects were considered as the random effects. Additive genetic variance, animal permanent environment variance, residual variance, phenotypic variance, heritability and repeatability were estimated during different months of lactation between 5.7 - 19.6, 15.3 - 27.1, 31.4 - 17.2, 45.8 - 64.83, 0.1 - 0.32 and 0.4 - 0.6, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation were also estimated between months of lactation in range of -0.35 - 0.98 and 0.03 - 0.67, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation both showed the same changing pattern and they decreased as the interval between months of lactation increased.
文摘This paper proposes a method for determining the stabilizing parameter regions for general delay control systems based on randomized sampling. A delay control system is converted into a unified state-space form. The numerical stability condition is developed and checked for sample points in the parameter space. These points are separated into stable and unstable regions by the decision function obtained from some learning method. The proposed method is very general and applied to a much wider range of systems than the existing methods in the literature. The proposed method is illustrated with examples.
文摘In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.
文摘When initializing cryptographic systems or running cryptographic protocols, the randomness of critical parameters, like keys or key components, is one of the most crucial aspects. But, randomly chosen parameters come with the intrinsic chance of duplicates, which finally may cause cryptographic systems including RSA, ElGamal and Zero-Knowledge proofs to become insecure. When concerning digital identifiers, we need uniqueness in order to correctly identify a specific action or object. Unfortunately we also need randomness here. Without randomness, actions become linkable to each other or to their initiator’s digital identity. So ideally the employed (cryptographic) parameters should fulfill two potentially conflicting requirements simultaneously: randomness and uniqueness. This article proposes an efficient mechanism to provide both attributes at the same time without highly constraining the first one and never violating the second one. After defining five requirements on random number generators and discussing related work, we will describe the core concept of the generation mechanism. Subsequently we will prove the postulated properties (security, randomness, uniqueness, efficiency and privacy protection) and present some application scenarios including system-wide unique parameters, cryptographic keys and components, identifiers and digital pseudonyms.
基金supported by the China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.Science and Technology Research and Development Program Project(Grant No.L2024G007)the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(Grant No.2024JJ5427)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52478321,52078485)the Science and Technology Research and Development Program Project of China Railway Group Limited(Grant No.2021-Special-08,2022-Key-06&2023-Key-22).
文摘To enhance the efficiency of stochastic vibration analysis for the Train-Track-Bridge(TTB)coupled system,this paper proposes a prediction method based on a Genetic Algorithm-optimized Backpropagation(GA-BP)neural network.First,initial track irregularity samples and random parameter sets of the Vehicle-Bridge System(VBS)are generated using the stochastic harmonic function method.Then,the stochastic dynamic responses corresponding to the sample sets are calculated using a developed stochastic vibration analysis model of the TTB system.The track irregularity data and vehicle-bridge random parameters are used as input variables,while the corresponding stochastic responses serve as output variables for training the BP neural network to construct the prediction model.Subsequently,the Genetic Algorithm(GA)is applied to optimize the BP neural network by considering the randomness in excitation and parameters of the TTB system,improving model accuracy.After optimization,the trained GA-BP model enables rapid and accurate prediction of vehicle-bridge responses.To validate the proposed method,predictions of vehicle-bridge responses under varying train speeds are compared with numerical simulation results.The findings demonstrate that the proposed method offers notable advantages in predicting the stochastic vibration response of high-speed railway TTB coupled systems.
基金support in providing the data and the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia supported this work under UTM Flagship CoE/RG-Coe/RG 5.2:Evaluating Surface PGA with Global Ground Motion Site Response Analyses for the highest seismic activity location in Peninsular Malaysia(Q.J130000.5022.10G47)Universiti Teknologi Malaysia-Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Peninsular Malaysia Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis(PSHA)Method(Q.J130000.21A2.06E9).
文摘The prediction of slope stability is a complex nonlinear problem.This paper proposes a new method based on the random forest(RF)algorithm to study the rocky slopes stability.Taking the Bukit Merah,Perak and Twin Peak(Kuala Lumpur)as the study area,the slope characteristics of geometrical parameters are obtained from a multidisciplinary approach(consisting of geological,geotechnical,and remote sensing analyses).18 factors,including rock strength,rock quality designation(RQD),joint spacing,continuity,openness,roughness,filling,weathering,water seepage,temperature,vegetation index,water index,and orientation,are selected to construct model input variables while the factor of safety(FOS)functions as an output.The area under the curve(AUC)value of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve is obtained with precision and accuracy and used to analyse the predictive model ability.With a large training set and predicted parameters,an area under the ROC curve(the AUC)of 0.95 is achieved.A precision score of 0.88 is obtained,indicating that the model has a low false positive rate and correctly identifies a substantial number of true positives.The findings emphasise the importance of using a variety of terrain characteristics and different approaches to characterise the rock slope.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(60134010)
文摘In view of the feature of flight flutter test data with atmospheric turbulence excitation, a method which combines wavelet transformation with random decrement technique for identifying flight flutter modal parameters is presented. This approach firstly uses random decrement technique to gain free decays corresponding to the acceleration response of the structure to some non-zero initial conditions. Then the continuous Morlet wavelet transformation of the free decays is performed; and the Parseval formula and residue theorem are used to simplify the transformation. The maximal wavelet transformation coefficients in different scales are searched out by means of band-filtering characteristic of Morlet wavelet, and then the modal parameters are identified according to the relationships with maximal modulus and angle of the wavelet transform. In addition, the condition of modal uncoupling is discussed according to variation trend of flight flutter modal parameters in the flight flutter state. The analysis results of simulation and flight flutter test data show that this approach is not only simple, effective and feasible, but also having good noise immunity.
基金Gansu Science and Technology Key Project under Grant No.2GS057-A52-008
文摘Traditional modal parameter identifi cation methods have many disadvantages,especially when used for processing nonlinear and non-stationary signals.In addition,they are usually not able to accurately identify the damping ratio and damage.In this study,methods based on the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) are investigated for structural modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis.First,mirror extension and prediction via a radial basis function(RBF) neural network are used to restrain the troublesome end-effect issue in empirical mode decomposition(EMD),which is a crucial part of HHT.Then,the approaches based on HHT combined with other techniques,such as the random decrement technique(RDT),natural excitation technique(NExT) and stochastic subspace identifi cation(SSI),are proposed to identify modal parameters of structures.Furthermore,a damage diagnosis method based on the HHT is also proposed.Time-varying instantaneous frequency and instantaneous energy are used to identify the damage evolution of the structure.The relative amplitude of the Hilbert marginal spectrum is used to identify the damage location of the structure.Finally,acceleration records at gauge points from shaking table testing of a 12-story reinforced concrete frame model are taken to validate the proposed approaches.The results show that the proposed approaches based on HHT for modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis are reliable and practical.
