This project is aimed at bridging the three planes,from basic research,through enabling processes,to engineered systems.At the basic research plane,we have been working to improve our collective understanding about ob...This project is aimed at bridging the three planes,from basic research,through enabling processes,to engineered systems.At the basic research plane,we have been working to improve our collective understanding about obstacles to implementing mitigation practices,owner decision processes (in connection with other MCEER projects),and public policy processes.At the level of enabling processes,we have been seeking to develop an understanding of how obstacles to greater mitigation can be overcome by improved policy design and processes.At the engineered systems plane, our work is intended to result in practical guidelines for devising policies and programs with appropriate motivation and incentives for implementing policies and programs once adopted.This phase of the research has been aimed,first,at a thorough,multidisciplinary review of the literature concerning obstacles to implementation.Second,the research has focused on advancing the state of the art by developing means for integrating the insights offered by diverse perspectives on the implementation process from the several social,behavioral,and decision sciences.The research establishes a basis for testing our understanding of these processes in the case of hospital retrofit decisions.展开更多
Earthquakes are a serious natural disaster faced by countries all over the world. Research on earthquake hazard mitigation are important parts of earthquake science and is a feature of Chinas development of earthqua...Earthquakes are a serious natural disaster faced by countries all over the world. Research on earthquake hazard mitigation are important parts of earthquake science and is a feature of Chinas development of earthquake science. In recent years,the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of the Peoples Republic of China,the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) have attached great importance to basic research on earthquake hazard mitigation,and new opportunities and challenges have emerged. This paper collects the applications and approvals of the National Key R&D Program and the NSFC projects undertaken by the research institutes of the CEA system in recent years. The CEA system has received funding in the 13th "Five-year Plan" for "Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster". The implementation of these projects is expected to provide support for the basic science and applied research of the CEA system. In the NSFC,the number of applications from the CEA system is relatively stable,and the funding rate is slightly higher than the average for the department of earth science. Although no detailed statistical analysis has been performed,the CEA system still has room for improvement in the application of talent and major programs. I hope that the brief review of new opportunities that have arose in recent years described in this article can provide some background and new thinking for future challenges.展开更多
The nonlinear analysis of pounding between bridge deck segments subjected to multi-support excitations and multi-dimensional earthquake motion was performed.A novel bottom rigid element(BRE)method of the current displ...The nonlinear analysis of pounding between bridge deck segments subjected to multi-support excitations and multi-dimensional earthquake motion was performed.A novel bottom rigid element(BRE)method of the current displacement input model for structural seismic analysis under the multi-support excitations was used to calculate structural dynamic response.In the analysis,pounding between adjacent deck segments was considered.The seismic response of a multi-span bridge subjected to the multi-support excitation,considering not only the traveling-wave effect and partial coherence effect,but also the seismic non-stationary characteristics of multi-support earthquake motion,was simulated using finite element method(FEM).Meanwhile,the seismic response of the bridge under uniform earthquake was also analyzed.Finally,comparative analysis was conducted and some calculation results were shown for pounding effect,under multi-dimensional and multi-support earthquake motion,when performing seismic response analysis of multi-span bridge.Compared with the case of uniform/multi-support/multi-support and multi-dimensional earthquake input,the maximum values of pounding force in the case of multi-support and multi-dimensional earthquake input increase by about 5 8 times;the absolute value of bottom moment and shear force of piers increase by about50%600%and 23.1%900%,respectively.A conclusion can be given that it is very necessary to consider the pounding effect under multi-dimensional and multi-support earthquake motion while performing seismic response analysis of multi-span bridge.展开更多
The mechanism of “Bing-Bang-Channeling-Cut” was proposed to reduce the volcanic energy (“Bing”) from the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) for the mitigation of Ecuadorian earthquake impact (“Bang”). The lag time between...The mechanism of “Bing-Bang-Channeling-Cut” was proposed to reduce the volcanic energy (“Bing”) from the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) for the mitigation of Ecuadorian earthquake impact (“Bang”). The lag time between the volcanic eruptions in the GHS and Ecuadorian earthquake was probably caused by the undersea seamounts of the Carnegie Ridge (CAR) (“Channeling”). Experimental results from the water reservoir showed that the lag time decreased when increasing the number of drilled holes (“Cut”) in the bottom of reservoir. The present study showed that there was an additional vector initiating the Ecuadorian earthquake from the volcanic eruption in the GHS through the CAR. It was concluded that the harmful effects of Ecuadorian earthquakes could be mitigated by releasing the volcanic energy through the enlarged exit diameters in Holes of Site 1239 (A, B, C) with the presently productive upwelling chlorophyll system at the northeastern CAR.展开更多
As an earthquake-prone country, China has made sustained efforts in the study of earthquakes and disaster mitigation during the past several decades, with China Seismological Bureau (CSB) as the backbone of these effo...As an earthquake-prone country, China has made sustained efforts in the study of earthquakes and disaster mitigation during the past several decades, with China Seismological Bureau (CSB) as the backbone of these efforts. Working towards this purpose, a series of key projects were implemented in the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (1995-2000) to upgrade earthquake monitoring systems and to improve the supporting infrastructure, significant results in earthquake science were achieved. In the new century, we have worked out a blueprint for earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation in the “Tenth Five-Year Plan”, which emphases 3 systems (i.e. Seismic Monitoring & Prediction, Seismic Hazards Prevention, Emergency Response), and 10 key projects in earthquake science and technology.展开更多
Metropolitans are a result of fast economic development in China. Many metropolitans have emerged in the eastern part of China. Earthquake disasters in metropolitans are more complicated and serious than those in a sm...Metropolitans are a result of fast economic development in China. Many metropolitans have emerged in the eastern part of China. Earthquake disasters in metropolitans are more complicated and serious than those in a smaller city, and the impact of earthquake disaster on the economy and society is large. The characteristics of earthquake disasters and countermeasures to protect against and mitigate disaster in the metropolitan, as well as some key research fields in the earthquake disaster protection and mitigation, are discussed.展开更多
This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia.The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic d...This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia.The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic data,predictive models,and stakeholder perspectives.The quantitative analysis includes seismic hazard estimation using the Gutenberg-Richter formula,ground movement analysis based on GMPE,and time interval calculations to forecast future earthquakes.Qualitative methods involve Policy Network Theory to explore the roles and interactions of various stakeholders in disaster management,including government agencies,Indonesian Archipelago Youth Association(NGOs),local communities,and academic researchers.Findings reveal significant seismic activity in the area,with historical earthquakes of magnitudes 8 and 9 occurring at intervals of 18 to 232 years.Predictions suggest a potential magnitude 8 earthquake around 2083,with a megathrust event likely around 2123.The study also identifies economic costs and losses,with damage from a megathrust estimated between USD 1.5–2.5 billion and 10-20 billion,including destroyed homes and displaced populations.Challenges include infrastructure limitations,logistical constraints,and enhancing disaster preparedness and response.The study emphasizes the importance of improving infrastructure,strengthening disaster preparedness,and updating early warning systems.Effective collaboration among stakeholders and integrating local knowledge into disaster management strategies are crucial for enhancing regional resilience.Recommendations include completing infrastructure projects like the Trans-Mentawai Road,increasing community engagement,and utilizing scientific data for evidence-based policymaking.Addressing these recommendations and limitations is essential for developing a robust disaster management framework to mitigate regional seismic risks.展开更多
Earthquake is a complex multi-dimensional excitation.Counter-measures of such multi-dimensional excitation on many critical structures,such as long-span structures and high-rise buildings,must be taken into account to...Earthquake is a complex multi-dimensional excitation.Counter-measures of such multi-dimensional excitation on many critical structures,such as long-span structures and high-rise buildings,must be taken into account to avert the structural failure.Many types of earthquake mitigation or isolation devices for mitigating earthquake-induced effects in the horizontal direction have been proposed and applied to real applications.However,study on multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation devices for structures has been received much less attention.In this paper,a new multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device was developed and tested.Effects of excitation frequency and environmental temperature on horizontal properties of this device were considered.At the same time,fatigue properties of the device under different amplitude horizontal excitations were also studied experimentally.The equivalent standard solid model which can effectively describe the effect of frequency and temperature on the horizontal properties of the device was proposed and verified.From the experimental results,it may be concluded that the multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device owns fine energy dissipation and fatigue resistance capabilities.展开更多
The viscoelastic multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device is a new kind of passive control device, which can perform its "name-giving" task of earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigati...The viscoelastic multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device is a new kind of passive control device, which can perform its "name-giving" task of earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation simultaneously. In order to quantify its vertical earthquake isolation and mitigation effect on structures, firstly, shaking table tests on steel frame structures with and without the devices were carried out; secondly, analysis on dynamic characteristics and dynamic responses of the structures was also performed; furthermore, the finite element analytical results and the experimental results were compared. It can be shown from the analytical and experimental results that the devices have noticeable earthquake isolation and mitigation effect in the vertical direction.展开更多
Fast inversion of source rupture process for significant earthquake is introduced and applied to earthquake emergency response. We retrieve and use the apparent source time functions （ASTFs） to stabilize the rupture...Fast inversion of source rupture process for significant earthquake is introduced and applied to earthquake emergency response. We retrieve and use the apparent source time functions （ASTFs） to stabilize the rupture process inversion, aiming to get the rupture process results correctly and quickly. The applications to 22 significant earthquakes occurred between January 2009 and July 2011 show an average inversion time consumed of about four hours, suggesting a high efficiency of this method, which much improves the inversion speed of the rupture process and is helpful in earthquake disaster mitigation and relief.展开更多
The viscoelastic multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device is a new kind of passive control device, which has both earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation abilities. In order to quantify the ...The viscoelastic multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device is a new kind of passive control device, which has both earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation abilities. In order to quantify the horizontal earthquake isolation and mitigation effect of this device on structures, shaking table tests on structures with and without the devices and the corresponding analysis on earthquake isolation and mitigation properties are carried out. It can be shown from the experimental and analytical results that the device has both earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation effects on structures in horizontal direction, and its horizontal earthquake mitigation coefficients can be referred to those of the rubber bearing earthquake isolation structure.展开更多
Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events su...Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper presents some typical case histories related to the catastrophic landslides,including the Guanling rock avalanche,the Yigong rockslide-debris avalanche,the Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides and the Danba landslide.They occurred in the last decade.Moreover,taking the Jiweishan catastrophic rockslide-fragment flow and the Yuhuangge landslide located in the new Wushan Town for examples,early-warning system and risk management on landslides are discussed in detail.展开更多
In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake...In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology.As for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management.This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems.In terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism nucleation.Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters.For seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model.Furthermore,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect.This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.展开更多
Earthquake early warning(EEW)is discriminated from earthquake prediction by using initial seismic waves to predict the severity of ground motion and issue the warning information to potential affected area.The warning...Earthquake early warning(EEW)is discriminated from earthquake prediction by using initial seismic waves to predict the severity of ground motion and issue the warning information to potential affected area.The warning information is useful to mitigate the disaster and decrease the losses of life and economy.We reviewed the development history of EEW worldwide and summarized the methodologies using in different systems.Some new sensors came and are coming into EEW giving more developing potential to future implementation.The success of earthquake disaster mitigation relies on the cooperation of the whole society.展开更多
A new remediation technique is proposed to mitigate large deformations imposed on buried pipeline systems subject to permanent ground deformation.With this technique,low-density gravel(LDG)with high porosity,such as p...A new remediation technique is proposed to mitigate large deformations imposed on buried pipeline systems subject to permanent ground deformation.With this technique,low-density gravel(LDG)with high porosity,such as pumice,is used as backfill in the trench containing the pipe near an area susceptible to PGD.This countermeasure decreases soil resistance,soil-pipe interaction forces and strain on the pipe as the pipeline deformation mechanism changes to a more desirable shape.Expanded polystyrene geofoam has been introduced to decrease the density of the pipeline backfill;however,LDG is more efficient regarding workability during construction,environmental effects,durability,fire safety,and cost-effectiveness.A series of centrifuge model experiments in which the pipelines were subjected to reverse faulting was conducted to evaluate the proposed method.During faulting,the axial and bending strain and pipe deflection were measured.A comparison of the responses of the remediated pipeline and the pipeline without remediation indicates that the proposed technique substantially mitigates the effects of large deformation.展开更多
Following surface rupture observations in populated areas affected by the KahramanmaraşEarthquake(Mw 7.7)on February 6th,2023,along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone(EAFZ),this study presents novel...Following surface rupture observations in populated areas affected by the KahramanmaraşEarthquake(Mw 7.7)on February 6th,2023,along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone(EAFZ),this study presents novel insights into physical criteria for delineating surface fault-rupture hazard zones(SRHZs)along ruptured strike-slip faults.To achieve this objective,three trench studies across the surface rupture were conducted on the Pazarcık segment of the EAFZ to collect field data,and earthquake recurrence intervals were interpreted using Bayesian statistics from previously conducted paleoseismological trenchings.The results of the proposed model indicate that the Pazarcık segment produced five significant surface-rupturing earthquakes in the last∼11 kyr:E1:11.13±1.74 kyr,E2:7.62±1.20 kyr,E3:5.34±1.05 kyr,E4:1.82±0.93 kyr,and E5:0.35±0.11 kyr.In addition,the recurrence intervals of destructive earthquakes on the subject in question range from 0.6 kyr to 4.8 kyr.Considering that the last significant earthquake occurred in 1513,the longest time since the most recent surface fault rupturing earthquake on this particular segment was 511 years.These results indicate that,in terms of the theoretical recurrence interval of earthquakes that can create surface ruptures on the Pazarcık segment,the period in which the February 6,2023,earthquake occurred was within the end of the expected return period.As a result,the potential for a devastating earthquake in the near future is not foreseen on the same fault.Finally,the SRHZ proposed for the Pazarcık section of Gölbaşıvillage was calculated as a 61-meter-wide offset on the fault lineament to reduce the negativities that may occur in the ruptured area in the future.It is recommended to take into account this width in the settlement of this area and nearby areas.展开更多
This research is concerned with an analysis of the level of vulnerability for an earthquake disaster in Lembang district,an area in West Java that includes the Bandung basin and has a high potential for earthquake dis...This research is concerned with an analysis of the level of vulnerability for an earthquake disaster in Lembang district,an area in West Java that includes the Bandung basin and has a high potential for earthquake disaster.The Lembang district is close to the active Lembang fault whose movement can cause earthquakes of magnitude 7 on the Richter scale(Tempo Interaktif,May 11,2010).The research method used to assess the level of vulnerability is essentially a descriptive approach.The data analysis is based on calculating an earthquake disaster risk index(EDRI),which is in turn based on assessment of the region's social,physical and economic vulnerabilities.The vulnerability level for earthquake disaster in the Lembang is ranked as medium category.The social vulnerability of the population is the major contributing factor given the high population density and growth rate for the region.The physical characteristics of the district,which includes mild temperatures and attractive scenery,make many people want to stay in and visit Lembang.The construction quality of buildings is so bad that they are not designed to withstand earthquakes,so improvement of building infrastructure is an alternative to reducing the various physical vulnerabilities.展开更多
This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and compre...This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method. The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely large earthquake, moderate earthquake, and small earthquake, are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis. The methods to determine seismic fortification criterion are discussed.展开更多
This paper gives a brief introduction to a few new indexes and methods published in recent issues of seismological literature which have been explored especially by the authors and many of their collaborators for appl...This paper gives a brief introduction to a few new indexes and methods published in recent issues of seismological literature which have been explored especially by the authors and many of their collaborators for applying in earthquake prediction research. The new indexes include the statistical indexes of seismicity (Morishita index Iδ, the parameters C and b-value spectrum derived from the magnitude-frequency relation, etc. )and indexes describing the dynamical characteristics of seismic waves obtained from digitized seismologicrecords (wave form linearities, spectral characteristics, etc. ). The new methods fall into two categories:namely the methods of non-linear sciences (fractal analysis, self-similarity and self-organization structure,neural network) and graphical analysis methods of multi-dimensional data (face analysis, projection pursuit,chronogeometric analysis ).展开更多
基金the National Science Foundation,Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program through MCEER.
文摘This project is aimed at bridging the three planes,from basic research,through enabling processes,to engineered systems.At the basic research plane,we have been working to improve our collective understanding about obstacles to implementing mitigation practices,owner decision processes (in connection with other MCEER projects),and public policy processes.At the level of enabling processes,we have been seeking to develop an understanding of how obstacles to greater mitigation can be overcome by improved policy design and processes.At the engineered systems plane, our work is intended to result in practical guidelines for devising policies and programs with appropriate motivation and incentives for implementing policies and programs once adopted.This phase of the research has been aimed,first,at a thorough,multidisciplinary review of the literature concerning obstacles to implementation.Second,the research has focused on advancing the state of the art by developing means for integrating the insights offered by diverse perspectives on the implementation process from the several social,behavioral,and decision sciences.The research establishes a basis for testing our understanding of these processes in the case of hospital retrofit decisions.
基金sponsored by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1503200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41614058,41790463 and 41574050)
文摘Earthquakes are a serious natural disaster faced by countries all over the world. Research on earthquake hazard mitigation are important parts of earthquake science and is a feature of Chinas development of earthquake science. In recent years,the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) of the Peoples Republic of China,the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) have attached great importance to basic research on earthquake hazard mitigation,and new opportunities and challenges have emerged. This paper collects the applications and approvals of the National Key R&D Program and the NSFC projects undertaken by the research institutes of the CEA system in recent years. The CEA system has received funding in the 13th "Five-year Plan" for "Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster". The implementation of these projects is expected to provide support for the basic science and applied research of the CEA system. In the NSFC,the number of applications from the CEA system is relatively stable,and the funding rate is slightly higher than the average for the department of earth science. Although no detailed statistical analysis has been performed,the CEA system still has room for improvement in the application of talent and major programs. I hope that the brief review of new opportunities that have arose in recent years described in this article can provide some background and new thinking for future challenges.
基金Project(51078242)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘The nonlinear analysis of pounding between bridge deck segments subjected to multi-support excitations and multi-dimensional earthquake motion was performed.A novel bottom rigid element(BRE)method of the current displacement input model for structural seismic analysis under the multi-support excitations was used to calculate structural dynamic response.In the analysis,pounding between adjacent deck segments was considered.The seismic response of a multi-span bridge subjected to the multi-support excitation,considering not only the traveling-wave effect and partial coherence effect,but also the seismic non-stationary characteristics of multi-support earthquake motion,was simulated using finite element method(FEM).Meanwhile,the seismic response of the bridge under uniform earthquake was also analyzed.Finally,comparative analysis was conducted and some calculation results were shown for pounding effect,under multi-dimensional and multi-support earthquake motion,when performing seismic response analysis of multi-span bridge.Compared with the case of uniform/multi-support/multi-support and multi-dimensional earthquake input,the maximum values of pounding force in the case of multi-support and multi-dimensional earthquake input increase by about 5 8 times;the absolute value of bottom moment and shear force of piers increase by about50%600%and 23.1%900%,respectively.A conclusion can be given that it is very necessary to consider the pounding effect under multi-dimensional and multi-support earthquake motion while performing seismic response analysis of multi-span bridge.
文摘The mechanism of “Bing-Bang-Channeling-Cut” was proposed to reduce the volcanic energy (“Bing”) from the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) for the mitigation of Ecuadorian earthquake impact (“Bang”). The lag time between the volcanic eruptions in the GHS and Ecuadorian earthquake was probably caused by the undersea seamounts of the Carnegie Ridge (CAR) (“Channeling”). Experimental results from the water reservoir showed that the lag time decreased when increasing the number of drilled holes (“Cut”) in the bottom of reservoir. The present study showed that there was an additional vector initiating the Ecuadorian earthquake from the volcanic eruption in the GHS through the CAR. It was concluded that the harmful effects of Ecuadorian earthquakes could be mitigated by releasing the volcanic energy through the enlarged exit diameters in Holes of Site 1239 (A, B, C) with the presently productive upwelling chlorophyll system at the northeastern CAR.
文摘As an earthquake-prone country, China has made sustained efforts in the study of earthquakes and disaster mitigation during the past several decades, with China Seismological Bureau (CSB) as the backbone of these efforts. Working towards this purpose, a series of key projects were implemented in the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” (1995-2000) to upgrade earthquake monitoring systems and to improve the supporting infrastructure, significant results in earthquake science were achieved. In the new century, we have worked out a blueprint for earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation in the “Tenth Five-Year Plan”, which emphases 3 systems (i.e. Seismic Monitoring & Prediction, Seismic Hazards Prevention, Emergency Response), and 10 key projects in earthquake science and technology.
文摘Metropolitans are a result of fast economic development in China. Many metropolitans have emerged in the eastern part of China. Earthquake disasters in metropolitans are more complicated and serious than those in a smaller city, and the impact of earthquake disaster on the economy and society is large. The characteristics of earthquake disasters and countermeasures to protect against and mitigate disaster in the metropolitan, as well as some key research fields in the earthquake disaster protection and mitigation, are discussed.
文摘This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia.The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic data,predictive models,and stakeholder perspectives.The quantitative analysis includes seismic hazard estimation using the Gutenberg-Richter formula,ground movement analysis based on GMPE,and time interval calculations to forecast future earthquakes.Qualitative methods involve Policy Network Theory to explore the roles and interactions of various stakeholders in disaster management,including government agencies,Indonesian Archipelago Youth Association(NGOs),local communities,and academic researchers.Findings reveal significant seismic activity in the area,with historical earthquakes of magnitudes 8 and 9 occurring at intervals of 18 to 232 years.Predictions suggest a potential magnitude 8 earthquake around 2083,with a megathrust event likely around 2123.The study also identifies economic costs and losses,with damage from a megathrust estimated between USD 1.5–2.5 billion and 10-20 billion,including destroyed homes and displaced populations.Challenges include infrastructure limitations,logistical constraints,and enhancing disaster preparedness and response.The study emphasizes the importance of improving infrastructure,strengthening disaster preparedness,and updating early warning systems.Effective collaboration among stakeholders and integrating local knowledge into disaster management strategies are crucial for enhancing regional resilience.Recommendations include completing infrastructure projects like the Trans-Mentawai Road,increasing community engagement,and utilizing scientific data for evidence-based policymaking.Addressing these recommendations and limitations is essential for developing a robust disaster management framework to mitigate regional seismic risks.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.90915004)the Jiangsu Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.BK2008282)+1 种基金the Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.20090092110012)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.NCET-06-0472)
文摘Earthquake is a complex multi-dimensional excitation.Counter-measures of such multi-dimensional excitation on many critical structures,such as long-span structures and high-rise buildings,must be taken into account to avert the structural failure.Many types of earthquake mitigation or isolation devices for mitigating earthquake-induced effects in the horizontal direction have been proposed and applied to real applications.However,study on multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation devices for structures has been received much less attention.In this paper,a new multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device was developed and tested.Effects of excitation frequency and environmental temperature on horizontal properties of this device were considered.At the same time,fatigue properties of the device under different amplitude horizontal excitations were also studied experimentally.The equivalent standard solid model which can effectively describe the effect of frequency and temperature on the horizontal properties of the device was proposed and verified.From the experimental results,it may be concluded that the multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device owns fine energy dissipation and fatigue resistance capabilities.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50508010)the Jiangsu Province Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. BK2008282)+2 种基金the Program for New Century Excellent Talents of the Ministry of Education in China (Grant No. NCET-06-0472)the Program for Jiangsu Province 333 Talentsthe National Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of China ("863" Project) (Grant No. 2009AA03Z106)
文摘The viscoelastic multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device is a new kind of passive control device, which can perform its "name-giving" task of earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation simultaneously. In order to quantify its vertical earthquake isolation and mitigation effect on structures, firstly, shaking table tests on steel frame structures with and without the devices were carried out; secondly, analysis on dynamic characteristics and dynamic responses of the structures was also performed; furthermore, the finite element analytical results and the experimental results were compared. It can be shown from the analytical and experimental results that the devices have noticeable earthquake isolation and mitigation effect in the vertical direction.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41090291)the Research Project in Earthquake Science, CEA (Nos. 201108002 and 200808068)
文摘Fast inversion of source rupture process for significant earthquake is introduced and applied to earthquake emergency response. We retrieve and use the apparent source time functions （ASTFs） to stabilize the rupture process inversion, aiming to get the rupture process results correctly and quickly. The applications to 22 significant earthquakes occurred between January 2009 and July 2011 show an average inversion time consumed of about four hours, suggesting a high efficiency of this method, which much improves the inversion speed of the rupture process and is helpful in earthquake disaster mitigation and relief.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50508010)the Jiangsu Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.BK2008282)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents of the Ministry of Education in China,the Program for Jiangsu Province333Talents and the Project-sponsored by SRF for ROCS,SEM
文摘The viscoelastic multi-dimensional earthquake isolation and mitigation device is a new kind of passive control device, which has both earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation abilities. In order to quantify the horizontal earthquake isolation and mitigation effect of this device on structures, shaking table tests on structures with and without the devices and the corresponding analysis on earthquake isolation and mitigation properties are carried out. It can be shown from the experimental and analytical results that the device has both earthquake isolation and earthquake mitigation effects on structures in horizontal direction, and its horizontal earthquake mitigation coefficients can be referred to those of the rubber bearing earthquake isolation structure.
文摘Increasing population density and development of mountainous terrain have brought human settlements within reach of landslide hazards.In recent years,due to the shortening of return period for severe natural events such as heavy rainfall,snowline retreating,great earthquake together with human activities,catastrophic landslides happened more frequently than before,resulting in large-scale casualties due to the increasing occurrences of rapid long-runout rock avalanches,especially in China.This paper presents some typical case histories related to the catastrophic landslides,including the Guanling rock avalanche,the Yigong rockslide-debris avalanche,the Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides and the Danba landslide.They occurred in the last decade.Moreover,taking the Jiweishan catastrophic rockslide-fragment flow and the Yuhuangge landslide located in the new Wushan Town for examples,early-warning system and risk management on landslides are discussed in detail.
文摘In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current seismology.As for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk management.This work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific problems.In terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism nucleation.Research on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault parameters.For seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility model.Furthermore,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing effect.This work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41704056)Seismological Science and Technology Spark Program(XH18056Y)
文摘Earthquake early warning(EEW)is discriminated from earthquake prediction by using initial seismic waves to predict the severity of ground motion and issue the warning information to potential affected area.The warning information is useful to mitigate the disaster and decrease the losses of life and economy.We reviewed the development history of EEW worldwide and summarized the methodologies using in different systems.Some new sensors came and are coming into EEW giving more developing potential to future implementation.The success of earthquake disaster mitigation relies on the cooperation of the whole society.
文摘A new remediation technique is proposed to mitigate large deformations imposed on buried pipeline systems subject to permanent ground deformation.With this technique,low-density gravel(LDG)with high porosity,such as pumice,is used as backfill in the trench containing the pipe near an area susceptible to PGD.This countermeasure decreases soil resistance,soil-pipe interaction forces and strain on the pipe as the pipeline deformation mechanism changes to a more desirable shape.Expanded polystyrene geofoam has been introduced to decrease the density of the pipeline backfill;however,LDG is more efficient regarding workability during construction,environmental effects,durability,fire safety,and cost-effectiveness.A series of centrifuge model experiments in which the pipelines were subjected to reverse faulting was conducted to evaluate the proposed method.During faulting,the axial and bending strain and pipe deflection were measured.A comparison of the responses of the remediated pipeline and the pipeline without remediation indicates that the proposed technique substantially mitigates the effects of large deformation.
基金partially supported by the Turkish government through the 1002-C project in Natural Disasters Focused Fieldwork Emergency Support Program managed by the TUBITAK.I am grateful to F.Koçbulut and S.Koşaroğlu for helping me with the trenching studies.I also gratefully acknowledge H.Sözbilir,M.Nas,and E.Akgün for comments and suggestions.Furthermore,I extend my gratitude to the anonymous referees for their constructive criticisms and insightful feedback during the evaluation phase of this manuscript.
文摘Following surface rupture observations in populated areas affected by the KahramanmaraşEarthquake(Mw 7.7)on February 6th,2023,along the Pazarcık segment of the East Anatolian Fault Zone(EAFZ),this study presents novel insights into physical criteria for delineating surface fault-rupture hazard zones(SRHZs)along ruptured strike-slip faults.To achieve this objective,three trench studies across the surface rupture were conducted on the Pazarcık segment of the EAFZ to collect field data,and earthquake recurrence intervals were interpreted using Bayesian statistics from previously conducted paleoseismological trenchings.The results of the proposed model indicate that the Pazarcık segment produced five significant surface-rupturing earthquakes in the last∼11 kyr:E1:11.13±1.74 kyr,E2:7.62±1.20 kyr,E3:5.34±1.05 kyr,E4:1.82±0.93 kyr,and E5:0.35±0.11 kyr.In addition,the recurrence intervals of destructive earthquakes on the subject in question range from 0.6 kyr to 4.8 kyr.Considering that the last significant earthquake occurred in 1513,the longest time since the most recent surface fault rupturing earthquake on this particular segment was 511 years.These results indicate that,in terms of the theoretical recurrence interval of earthquakes that can create surface ruptures on the Pazarcık segment,the period in which the February 6,2023,earthquake occurred was within the end of the expected return period.As a result,the potential for a devastating earthquake in the near future is not foreseen on the same fault.Finally,the SRHZ proposed for the Pazarcık section of Gölbaşıvillage was calculated as a 61-meter-wide offset on the fault lineament to reduce the negativities that may occur in the ruptured area in the future.It is recommended to take into account this width in the settlement of this area and nearby areas.
文摘This research is concerned with an analysis of the level of vulnerability for an earthquake disaster in Lembang district,an area in West Java that includes the Bandung basin and has a high potential for earthquake disaster.The Lembang district is close to the active Lembang fault whose movement can cause earthquakes of magnitude 7 on the Richter scale(Tempo Interaktif,May 11,2010).The research method used to assess the level of vulnerability is essentially a descriptive approach.The data analysis is based on calculating an earthquake disaster risk index(EDRI),which is in turn based on assessment of the region's social,physical and economic vulnerabilities.The vulnerability level for earthquake disaster in the Lembang is ranked as medium category.The social vulnerability of the population is the major contributing factor given the high population density and growth rate for the region.The physical characteristics of the district,which includes mild temperatures and attractive scenery,make many people want to stay in and visit Lembang.The construction quality of buildings is so bad that they are not designed to withstand earthquakes,so improvement of building infrastructure is an alternative to reducing the various physical vulnerabilities.
文摘This paper discusses the relation between two-step seismic design and the standard of probability of exceedance, and the relation of three-levels seismic ground motion parameters given by probability method and comprehensive probability method. The relative size relations of the ground motions with 2%, 10%, 63% probability of exceedance in 50 years, namely large earthquake, moderate earthquake, and small earthquake, are discussed through a practical example of seismic hazard analysis. The methods to determine seismic fortification criterion are discussed.
文摘This paper gives a brief introduction to a few new indexes and methods published in recent issues of seismological literature which have been explored especially by the authors and many of their collaborators for applying in earthquake prediction research. The new indexes include the statistical indexes of seismicity (Morishita index Iδ, the parameters C and b-value spectrum derived from the magnitude-frequency relation, etc. )and indexes describing the dynamical characteristics of seismic waves obtained from digitized seismologicrecords (wave form linearities, spectral characteristics, etc. ). The new methods fall into two categories:namely the methods of non-linear sciences (fractal analysis, self-similarity and self-organization structure,neural network) and graphical analysis methods of multi-dimensional data (face analysis, projection pursuit,chronogeometric analysis ).
