Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
Focusing on B2B market, this paper studies the effect of product differentiation on business model perlbrmance. After interviewing several experts and analyzing numbers of distributing questionnaires. the author disco...Focusing on B2B market, this paper studies the effect of product differentiation on business model perlbrmance. After interviewing several experts and analyzing numbers of distributing questionnaires. the author discovered that product differentiation has a positive effect on business model performance. Through SEM. it is revealed that product differentiation at each level have positive effect on business model, with different effect weight. The main contributions of this research are summarized as follows： Firstly, the proposed model of the product differentiation on business model performance lays the basis for scientific measurement of product differentiation and its effect on business model performance; Secondly, this research ranks the importance of product differentiation at different level in B2B market; Finally, this research provides a good reference for enterprises to update their product strategy for better business model performance.展开更多
Intelligent maintenance of roads and highways requires accurate deterioration evaluation and performance prediction of asphalt pavement.To this end,we develop a time series long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict...Intelligent maintenance of roads and highways requires accurate deterioration evaluation and performance prediction of asphalt pavement.To this end,we develop a time series long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict key performance indicators(PIs)of pavement,namely the international roughness index(IRI)and rutting depth(RD).Subsequently,we propose a comprehensive performance indicator for the pavement quality index(PQI),which leverages the highway performance assessment standard method,entropy weight method,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.This indicator can evaluate the overall performance condition of the pavement.The data used for the model development and analysis are extracted from tests on two full-scale accelerated test tracks,called MnRoad and RIOHTrack.Six variables are used as predictors,including temperature,precipitation,total traffic volume,asphalt surface layer thickness,pavement age,and maintenance condition.Furthermore,wavelet denoising is performed to analyze the impact of missing or abnormal data on the LSTM model accuracy.In comparison to a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMAX)model,the proposed LSTM model performs better in terms of PI prediction and resiliency to noise.Finally,the overall prediction accuracy of our proposed performance indicator PQI is 93.8%.展开更多
This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of ...This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). It is a spectral model truncated at R42(2.8125°long×1.66°lat) resolution and with nine vertical levels, and referred to as R42L9/LASG hereafter. It is also the new version of atmospheric component model R15L9 of the global ocean-atmosphere-land system (GOALS/LASG). A 40-year simulation in which the model is forced with the climatological monthly mean sea surface temperature is compared with the 40-year (1958-97) U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NGEP) global reanalysis and the 22-year (1979-2000) Xie-Arkin monthly precipitation climatology. The mean DJF and JJA geographical distributions of precipitation, sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa and 200-hPa zonal wind, and other fields averaged for the last 30-year integration of the R42L9 model are analyzed. Results show that the model reproduces well the observed basic patterns, particularly precipitation over the East Asian region. Comparing the new model with R15L9/LASG, the old version with coarse resolution (nearly 7.5°long×4.5°lat), shows an obvious improvement in the simulation of regional climate, especially precipitation. The weaknesses in simulation and future improvements of the model are also discussed.展开更多
A weighting scheme jointly considering model performance and independence(PI-based weighting scheme) is employed to deal with multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation over China from 17 global climate models. ...A weighting scheme jointly considering model performance and independence(PI-based weighting scheme) is employed to deal with multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation over China from 17 global climate models. Four precipitation metrics on mean and extremes are used to evaluate the model performance and independence. The PIbased scheme is also compared with a rank-based weighting scheme and the simple arithmetic mean(AM) scheme. It is shown that the PI-based scheme achieves notable improvements in western China, with biases decreasing for all parameters. However, improvements are small and almost insignificant in eastern China. After calibration and validation, the scheme is used for future precipitation projection under the 1.5 and 2℃ global warming targets(above preindustrial level). There is a general tendency to wetness for most regions in China, especially in terms of extreme precipitation. The PI scheme shows larger inhomogeneity in spatial distribution. For the total precipitation PRCPTOT(95 th percentile extreme precipitation R95 P), the land fraction for a change larger than 10%(20%) is 22.8%(53.4%)in PI, while 13.3%(36.8%) in AM, under 2℃ global warming. Most noticeable increase exists in central and east parts of western China.展开更多
In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments （data are non-continuous and fragmental ...In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments （data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments）, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD （simple hydrology） model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization （PSO） method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.展开更多
Stone mastic asphalt(SMA)has not been widely used in the pavement industry,and there are no detailed design specifications for this type of asphalt.Therefore,long-term behavior properties of this pavement type are not...Stone mastic asphalt(SMA)has not been widely used in the pavement industry,and there are no detailed design specifications for this type of asphalt.Therefore,long-term behavior properties of this pavement type are not accessible widely,and no model has been established for SMA regarding its performance.The main purpose of this study was to incorporate expert experience(using the Markov-chain process)and data from field experiments to propose a model for SMA performance using the Bayesian approach.The implementation of these sources resulted in a well-organized method to develop a performance model for SMA pavements,which did not have a long-term data.Finally,a linear performance model was established to calculate the SMA service life.The service life of SMA can be predicted explicitly according to the developed performance model which has been validated using a new set of data.展开更多
Revealing regional climate changes is vital for policymaking activities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation.South China is a well-developed region with a dense population,but the level of uncertainty i...Revealing regional climate changes is vital for policymaking activities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation.South China is a well-developed region with a dense population,but the level of uncertainty in climate projections remains to be evaluated in detail.In this study,we comprehensively assessed the historical simulations and future projections of climate change in South China based on CMIP5/CMIP6 models.We show evidence that CMIP5/CMIP6 models can skillfully reproduce the observed distributions of annual/seasonal mean temperature but show much lower skill for precipitation.CMIP6 outperforms CMIP5 in the historical simulations,as evidenced by more models with lower bias magnitude and higher skill scores.During 2021–2100,the annual mean temperature over South China is projected to increase significantly at a rate of 0.53(0.42–0.63)and 0.59(0.52–0.66)℃(10 yr)^(-1),while precipitation is projected to increase slightly at a rate of 0.78(0.15–1.56)and 1.52(0.91–2.30)%(10 yr)^(-1),under the RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.CMIP6 models project larger annual/seasonal mean temperature and precipitation trends than CMIP5 models under equivalent scenarios.The temperature in South China is projected to increase robustly by more than1.5℃during 2041–2060 under RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5,but by 4.5℃during 2081–2100,under RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 with respect to 1850–1900.The uncertainty in temperature projections is mainly dominated by model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty,while internal uncertainty contributes some of the uncertainty during the near-term.The uncertainty in precipitation projection stems mainly from internal uncertainty and model uncertainty.For both the temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty,the relative sizes of contributions from the main contributors vary with time and show obvious seasonal differences.展开更多
Visual question answering(VQA)is a multimodal task,involving a deep understanding of the image scene and the question’s meaning and capturing the relevant correlations between both modalities to infer the appropriate...Visual question answering(VQA)is a multimodal task,involving a deep understanding of the image scene and the question’s meaning and capturing the relevant correlations between both modalities to infer the appropriate answer.In this paper,we propose a VQA system intended to answer yes/no questions about real-world images,in Arabic.To support a robust VQA system,we work in two directions:(1)Using deep neural networks to semantically represent the given image and question in a fine-grainedmanner,namely ResNet-152 and Gated Recurrent Units(GRU).(2)Studying the role of the utilizedmultimodal bilinear pooling fusion technique in the trade-o.between the model complexity and the overall model performance.Some fusion techniques could significantly increase the model complexity,which seriously limits their applicability for VQA models.So far,there is no evidence of how efficient these multimodal bilinear pooling fusion techniques are for VQA systems dedicated to yes/no questions.Hence,a comparative analysis is conducted between eight bilinear pooling fusion techniques,in terms of their ability to reduce themodel complexity and improve themodel performance in this case of VQA systems.Experiments indicate that these multimodal bilinear pooling fusion techniques have improved the VQA model’s performance,until reaching the best performance of 89.25%.Further,experiments have proven that the number of answers in the developed VQA system is a critical factor that a.ects the effectiveness of these multimodal bilinear pooling techniques in achieving their main objective of reducing the model complexity.The Multimodal Local Perception Bilinear Pooling(MLPB)technique has shown the best balance between the model complexity and its performance,for VQA systems designed to answer yes/no questions.展开更多
The landing buffer is an important problem in the research on bionic locust jumping robots, and the different modes of landing and buffering can affect the dynamic performance of the buffering process significantly. B...The landing buffer is an important problem in the research on bionic locust jumping robots, and the different modes of landing and buffering can affect the dynamic performance of the buffering process significantly. Based on an experimental observation, the different modes of landing and buffering are determined, which include the different numbers of landing legs and different motion modes of legs in the buffering process. Then a bionic locust mechanism is established, and the springs are used to replace the leg muscles to achieve a buffering effect. To reveal the dynamic performance in the buffering process of the bionic locust mechanism, a dynamic model is established with different modes of landing and buffering. In particular, to analyze the buffering process conveniently, an equivalent vibration dynamic model of the bionic locust mechanism is proposed.Given the support forces of the ground to the leg links, which can be obtained from the dynamic model, the spring forces of the legs and the impact resistance of each leg are the important parameters affecting buffering performance, and evaluation principles for buffering performance are proposed according to the aforementioned parameters. Based on the dynamic model and these evaluation principles, the buffering performances are analyzed and compared in different modes of landing and buffering on a horizontal plane and an inclined plane. The results show that the mechanism with the ends of the legs sliding can obtain a better dynamic performance. This study offers primary theories for buffering dynamics and an evaluation of landing buffer performance,and it establishes a theoretical basis for studies and engineering applications.展开更多
In order to optimize the embedded system implementation for Ethernet-based computer numerical control （CNC） system, it is very necessary to establish the performance analysis model and further adopt the codesign met...In order to optimize the embedded system implementation for Ethernet-based computer numerical control （CNC） system, it is very necessary to establish the performance analysis model and further adopt the codesign method from the control, communication and computing perspectives. On the basis of analyzing real-time Ethemet, system architecture, time characteristic parameters of control-loop ere, a performance analysis model for real-time Ethemet-based CNC system was proposed, which is able to include the timing effects caused by the implementation platform in the simulation. The key for establishing the model is accomplished by designing the error analysis module and the controller nodes. Under the restraint of CPU resource and communication bandwidth, the experiment with a case study was conducted, and the results show that if the deadline miss ratio of data packets is 0.2%, then the percentage error is 1.105%. The proposed model can be used at several stages of CNC system development.展开更多
IEEE 802.11 distributed coordination function （DCF） is a distributed medium access scheme based on carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance （CSMA/CA） protocol. Many literatures have analyzed the perf...IEEE 802.11 distributed coordination function （DCF） is a distributed medium access scheme based on carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance （CSMA/CA） protocol. Many literatures have analyzed the performance of IEEE802.11 DCF. However, such literatures either used simulation methods or built the analytical models under the assumption that the saturation condition was satisfied. To overcome such a problem, in this paper, a hi-dimensional Markovian model has been introduced to depict the DCF mechanism. The proposed model introduced an idle stage and a discrete time M/G/1 queue to deduce the channel throughput under finite load traffic. Simulation results proved the accuracy of the proposed model.展开更多
Performance models provide insightful perspectives to predict performance and to propose optimization guidance.Although there has been much researches,pinpointing bottlenecks of various memory access patterns and reac...Performance models provide insightful perspectives to predict performance and to propose optimization guidance.Although there has been much researches,pinpointing bottlenecks of various memory access patterns and reaching high accurate prediction of both regular and irregular programs on various hardware configurations are still not trivial.This work proposes a novel model called process-RAM-feedback(PRF)to quantify the overhead of computation and data transmission time on general-purpose multi-core processors.The PRF model predicts the cost of instruction for singlecore by a directed acyclic graph(DAG)and the transmission time of memory access between each memory hierarchy through a newly designed cache simulator.By using performance modeling and feedback optimization method,this paper uses PRF model to analyze and optimize convolution,sparse matrix-vector multiplication and sn-sweep as case study for covering with typical regular kernel to irregular and data dependence.Through the PRF model,it obtains optimization guidance with various sparsity structures,algorithm designs,and instruction sets support on different data sizes.展开更多
Helper-thread of a task can hide the memory access time of irregular data on the chip muhi-core processor （CMP）. For constructing a compiler that effectively supports the helper-thread of a task in the multi-core sc...Helper-thread of a task can hide the memory access time of irregular data on the chip muhi-core processor （CMP）. For constructing a compiler that effectively supports the helper-thread of a task in the multi-core scenario based on the last level shared cache, this paper studies its performance stable condi- tions. Unfortunately, there is no existing model that allows extensive investigation of the impact of stable conditions, we present the base of pre-computation that is formalized by our degraded task-pair 〈 T, T＇ 〉 with the helper-thread, and its stable conditions are analyzed. Finally, a novel performance model and a constructing method of pre-computation based on our positive degraded task-pair are proposed. The efficient results are shown by our experiments. If we further exploit memory level parallelism （MLP） for our task-pair, the task-pair 〈 T, T＇ 〉 can reach better performance.展开更多
Evaluating performance of individual features of WiMAX technology is a topic of widespread discussion. Currently, there is no quantitative way of measuring WiMAX technology so that wireless operators can meet their de...Evaluating performance of individual features of WiMAX technology is a topic of widespread discussion. Currently, there is no quantitative way of measuring WiMAX technology so that wireless operators can meet their design objectives. This paper outlines a set of design criteria for WiMAX and provides a decision-making aid that ranks the importance of criteria using Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）. This ranking should sufficiently reflect market expectations of the relative importance of various design criteria. A model integrating AHP priorities with enhanced Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） is the basis for formulating a technological value in simple, comparable format. A case study is provided to show how this technological value is used to evaluate a three year network deployment plan. In the future, this model could be extended to WiMAX equipment suppliers for the purpose of validating performance targets of individual criteria, and enhancing supplier roadmaps for future network development.展开更多
This paper describes an innovative adaptive algorithmic modeling approach, for solving a wide class of e-business and strategic management problems under uncertainty conditions. The proposed methodology is based on ba...This paper describes an innovative adaptive algorithmic modeling approach, for solving a wide class of e-business and strategic management problems under uncertainty conditions. The proposed methodology is based on basic ideas and concepts of four key-field interrelated sciences, i.e., computing science, applied mathematics, management sciences and economic sciences. Furthermore, the fundamental scientific concepts of adaptability and uncertainty are shown to play a critical role of major importance for a （near） optimum solution of a class of complex e-business/services and strategic management problems. Two characteristic case studies, namely measuring e-business performance under certain environmental pressures and organizational constraints and describing the relationships between technology, innovation and firm performance, are considered as effective applications of the proposed adaptive algorithmic modeling approach. A theoretical time-dependent model for the evaluation of firm e-business performances is also proposed.展开更多
Applying the strategic performance method of the balanced score card and the new thinking, the text structures the balanced score card theoretical model Party and government, further investigates and sets up of perfor...Applying the strategic performance method of the balanced score card and the new thinking, the text structures the balanced score card theoretical model Party and government, further investigates and sets up of performance evaluation to the Chinese leaders of the the applied function model and appraisal model of the balanced score card theoretical model of performance evaluation to the Chinese leaders of the Party and government. The foundation and implementation of these kinds of models can improve its competence and reign power; will promote the whole performance development of the Chinese Party and government organs, it will create the enormous economic benefits and social benefits.展开更多
Today, in the field of computer networks, new services have been developed on the Internet or intranets, including the mail server, database management, sounds, videos and the web server itself Apache. The number of s...Today, in the field of computer networks, new services have been developed on the Internet or intranets, including the mail server, database management, sounds, videos and the web server itself Apache. The number of solutions for this server is therefore growing continuously, these services are becoming more and more complex and expensive, without being able to fulfill the needs of the users. The absence of benchmarks for websites with dynamic content is the major obstacle to research in this area. These users place high demands on the speed of access to information on the Internet. This is why the performance of the web server is critically important. Several factors influence performance, such as server execution speed, network saturation on the internet or intranet, increased response time, and throughputs. By measuring these factors, we propose a performance evaluation strategy for servers that allows us to determine the actual performance of different servers in terms of user satisfaction. Furthermore, we identified performance characteristics such as throughput, resource utilization, and response time of a system through measurement and modeling by simulation. Finally, we present a simple queue model of an Apache web server, which reasonably represents the behavior of a saturated web server using the Simulink model in Matlab (Matrix Laboratory) and also incorporates sporadic incoming traffic. We obtain server performance metrics such as average response time and throughput through simulations. Compared to other models, our model is conceptually straightforward. The model has been validated through measurements and simulations during the tests that we conducted.展开更多
This study compared the predictive performance and processing speed of an artificial neural network(ANN)and a hybrid of a numerical reservoir simulation(NRS)and artificial neural network(NRS-ANN)models in estimating t...This study compared the predictive performance and processing speed of an artificial neural network(ANN)and a hybrid of a numerical reservoir simulation(NRS)and artificial neural network(NRS-ANN)models in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under waterflood recovery.The historical input variables:reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hydrocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate used as inputs for ANN models.To create the NRS-ANN hybrid models,314 data sets extracted from the NRS model,which included reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hy-drocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate were used.The output of the models was the historical oil production rate(HOPR in m^(3) per day)recorded from the ZH86 reservoir block.Models were developed using MATLAB R2021a and trained with 25 models in three replicate conditions(2,4 and 6),each at 1000 epochs.A comparative analysis indicated that,for all 25 models,the ANN outperformed the NRS-ANN in terms of processing speed and prediction performance.ANN models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.8433 and 8.0964 m^(3)/day values,respectively,while NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.7828 and 8.2484 m^(3)/day values,respectively.In addition,ANN models achieved a processing speed of 49 epochs/sec,32 epochs/sec,and 24 epochs/sec after 2,4,and 6 replicates,respectively.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved lower average processing speeds of 45 epochs/sec,23 epochs/sec and 20 epochs/sec.In addition,the ANN optimal model outperforms the NRS-ANN model in terms of both processing speed and accuracy.The ANN optimal model achieved a speed of 336.44 epochs/sec,compared to the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal model,which achieved a speed of 52.16 epochs/sec.The ANN optimal model achieved lower RMSE and MAE values of 7.9291 m^(3)/day and 5.3855 m^(3)/day in the validation dataset compared with the hybrid ANS optimal model,which achieved 13.6821 m^(3)/day and 9.2047 m^(3)/day,respectively.The study also showed that the ANN optimal model consistently achieved higher R^(2) values:0.9472,0.9284 and 0.9316 in the training,test and validation data sets.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal yielded lower R^(2) values of 0.8030,0.8622 and 0.7776 for the training,testing and validation datasets.The study showed that ANN models are a more effective and reliable tool,as they balance both processing speed and accuracy in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under the waterflooding recovery method.展开更多
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).
文摘Focusing on B2B market, this paper studies the effect of product differentiation on business model perlbrmance. After interviewing several experts and analyzing numbers of distributing questionnaires. the author discovered that product differentiation has a positive effect on business model performance. Through SEM. it is revealed that product differentiation at each level have positive effect on business model, with different effect weight. The main contributions of this research are summarized as follows： Firstly, the proposed model of the product differentiation on business model performance lays the basis for scientific measurement of product differentiation and its effect on business model performance; Secondly, this research ranks the importance of product differentiation at different level in B2B market; Finally, this research provides a good reference for enterprises to update their product strategy for better business model performance.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFB2600300).
文摘Intelligent maintenance of roads and highways requires accurate deterioration evaluation and performance prediction of asphalt pavement.To this end,we develop a time series long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict key performance indicators(PIs)of pavement,namely the international roughness index(IRI)and rutting depth(RD).Subsequently,we propose a comprehensive performance indicator for the pavement quality index(PQI),which leverages the highway performance assessment standard method,entropy weight method,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.This indicator can evaluate the overall performance condition of the pavement.The data used for the model development and analysis are extracted from tests on two full-scale accelerated test tracks,called MnRoad and RIOHTrack.Six variables are used as predictors,including temperature,precipitation,total traffic volume,asphalt surface layer thickness,pavement age,and maintenance condition.Furthermore,wavelet denoising is performed to analyze the impact of missing or abnormal data on the LSTM model accuracy.In comparison to a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMAX)model,the proposed LSTM model performs better in terms of PI prediction and resiliency to noise.Finally,the overall prediction accuracy of our proposed performance indicator PQI is 93.8%.
文摘This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). It is a spectral model truncated at R42(2.8125°long×1.66°lat) resolution and with nine vertical levels, and referred to as R42L9/LASG hereafter. It is also the new version of atmospheric component model R15L9 of the global ocean-atmosphere-land system (GOALS/LASG). A 40-year simulation in which the model is forced with the climatological monthly mean sea surface temperature is compared with the 40-year (1958-97) U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NGEP) global reanalysis and the 22-year (1979-2000) Xie-Arkin monthly precipitation climatology. The mean DJF and JJA geographical distributions of precipitation, sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa and 200-hPa zonal wind, and other fields averaged for the last 30-year integration of the R42L9 model are analyzed. Results show that the model reproduces well the observed basic patterns, particularly precipitation over the East Asian region. Comparing the new model with R15L9/LASG, the old version with coarse resolution (nearly 7.5°long×4.5°lat), shows an obvious improvement in the simulation of regional climate, especially precipitation. The weaknesses in simulation and future improvements of the model are also discussed.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFA0603804, 2016YFA0600402, and 2018YFC1507704)。
文摘A weighting scheme jointly considering model performance and independence(PI-based weighting scheme) is employed to deal with multi-model ensemble prediction of precipitation over China from 17 global climate models. Four precipitation metrics on mean and extremes are used to evaluate the model performance and independence. The PIbased scheme is also compared with a rank-based weighting scheme and the simple arithmetic mean(AM) scheme. It is shown that the PI-based scheme achieves notable improvements in western China, with biases decreasing for all parameters. However, improvements are small and almost insignificant in eastern China. After calibration and validation, the scheme is used for future precipitation projection under the 1.5 and 2℃ global warming targets(above preindustrial level). There is a general tendency to wetness for most regions in China, especially in terms of extreme precipitation. The PI scheme shows larger inhomogeneity in spatial distribution. For the total precipitation PRCPTOT(95 th percentile extreme precipitation R95 P), the land fraction for a change larger than 10%(20%) is 22.8%(53.4%)in PI, while 13.3%(36.8%) in AM, under 2℃ global warming. Most noticeable increase exists in central and east parts of western China.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (the 973 Program,Grant No.2010CB951102)the National Supporting Plan Program of China (Grants No.2007BAB28B01 and 2008BAB42B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50709042),and the Regional Water Theme in the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
文摘In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments （data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments）, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD （simple hydrology） model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization （PSO） method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.
文摘Stone mastic asphalt(SMA)has not been widely used in the pavement industry,and there are no detailed design specifications for this type of asphalt.Therefore,long-term behavior properties of this pavement type are not accessible widely,and no model has been established for SMA regarding its performance.The main purpose of this study was to incorporate expert experience(using the Markov-chain process)and data from field experiments to propose a model for SMA performance using the Bayesian approach.The implementation of these sources resulted in a well-organized method to develop a performance model for SMA pavements,which did not have a long-term data.Finally,a linear performance model was established to calculate the SMA service life.The service life of SMA can be predicted explicitly according to the developed performance model which has been validated using a new set of data.
基金jointly supported by the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2242203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41905070)+4 种基金the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant Nos.2021A1515011421,2023A1515240067,2023B1515020009)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1505801)supported by the Guangdong Provincial Marine Meteorology Science Data Center(2024B1212070014)the China Meteorology Administration Key Innovation Team of Tropical Meteorology(Grant No.CMA2023ZD08)State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Project No.LTO2311)。
文摘Revealing regional climate changes is vital for policymaking activities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation.South China is a well-developed region with a dense population,but the level of uncertainty in climate projections remains to be evaluated in detail.In this study,we comprehensively assessed the historical simulations and future projections of climate change in South China based on CMIP5/CMIP6 models.We show evidence that CMIP5/CMIP6 models can skillfully reproduce the observed distributions of annual/seasonal mean temperature but show much lower skill for precipitation.CMIP6 outperforms CMIP5 in the historical simulations,as evidenced by more models with lower bias magnitude and higher skill scores.During 2021–2100,the annual mean temperature over South China is projected to increase significantly at a rate of 0.53(0.42–0.63)and 0.59(0.52–0.66)℃(10 yr)^(-1),while precipitation is projected to increase slightly at a rate of 0.78(0.15–1.56)and 1.52(0.91–2.30)%(10 yr)^(-1),under the RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.CMIP6 models project larger annual/seasonal mean temperature and precipitation trends than CMIP5 models under equivalent scenarios.The temperature in South China is projected to increase robustly by more than1.5℃during 2041–2060 under RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5,but by 4.5℃during 2081–2100,under RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 with respect to 1850–1900.The uncertainty in temperature projections is mainly dominated by model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty,while internal uncertainty contributes some of the uncertainty during the near-term.The uncertainty in precipitation projection stems mainly from internal uncertainty and model uncertainty.For both the temperature and precipitation projection uncertainty,the relative sizes of contributions from the main contributors vary with time and show obvious seasonal differences.
文摘Visual question answering(VQA)is a multimodal task,involving a deep understanding of the image scene and the question’s meaning and capturing the relevant correlations between both modalities to infer the appropriate answer.In this paper,we propose a VQA system intended to answer yes/no questions about real-world images,in Arabic.To support a robust VQA system,we work in two directions:(1)Using deep neural networks to semantically represent the given image and question in a fine-grainedmanner,namely ResNet-152 and Gated Recurrent Units(GRU).(2)Studying the role of the utilizedmultimodal bilinear pooling fusion technique in the trade-o.between the model complexity and the overall model performance.Some fusion techniques could significantly increase the model complexity,which seriously limits their applicability for VQA models.So far,there is no evidence of how efficient these multimodal bilinear pooling fusion techniques are for VQA systems dedicated to yes/no questions.Hence,a comparative analysis is conducted between eight bilinear pooling fusion techniques,in terms of their ability to reduce themodel complexity and improve themodel performance in this case of VQA systems.Experiments indicate that these multimodal bilinear pooling fusion techniques have improved the VQA model’s performance,until reaching the best performance of 89.25%.Further,experiments have proven that the number of answers in the developed VQA system is a critical factor that a.ects the effectiveness of these multimodal bilinear pooling techniques in achieving their main objective of reducing the model complexity.The Multimodal Local Perception Bilinear Pooling(MLPB)technique has shown the best balance between the model complexity and its performance,for VQA systems designed to answer yes/no questions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 51375035)the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant 20121102110021)
文摘The landing buffer is an important problem in the research on bionic locust jumping robots, and the different modes of landing and buffering can affect the dynamic performance of the buffering process significantly. Based on an experimental observation, the different modes of landing and buffering are determined, which include the different numbers of landing legs and different motion modes of legs in the buffering process. Then a bionic locust mechanism is established, and the springs are used to replace the leg muscles to achieve a buffering effect. To reveal the dynamic performance in the buffering process of the bionic locust mechanism, a dynamic model is established with different modes of landing and buffering. In particular, to analyze the buffering process conveniently, an equivalent vibration dynamic model of the bionic locust mechanism is proposed.Given the support forces of the ground to the leg links, which can be obtained from the dynamic model, the spring forces of the legs and the impact resistance of each leg are the important parameters affecting buffering performance, and evaluation principles for buffering performance are proposed according to the aforementioned parameters. Based on the dynamic model and these evaluation principles, the buffering performances are analyzed and compared in different modes of landing and buffering on a horizontal plane and an inclined plane. The results show that the mechanism with the ends of the legs sliding can obtain a better dynamic performance. This study offers primary theories for buffering dynamics and an evaluation of landing buffer performance,and it establishes a theoretical basis for studies and engineering applications.
基金Projects(50875090,50905063) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2009AA04Z111) supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China+2 种基金Project(20090460769) supported by China Postdoctoral Science FoundationProject(2011ZM0070) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities in ChinaProject(S2011010001155) supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China
文摘In order to optimize the embedded system implementation for Ethernet-based computer numerical control （CNC） system, it is very necessary to establish the performance analysis model and further adopt the codesign method from the control, communication and computing perspectives. On the basis of analyzing real-time Ethemet, system architecture, time characteristic parameters of control-loop ere, a performance analysis model for real-time Ethemet-based CNC system was proposed, which is able to include the timing effects caused by the implementation platform in the simulation. The key for establishing the model is accomplished by designing the error analysis module and the controller nodes. Under the restraint of CPU resource and communication bandwidth, the experiment with a case study was conducted, and the results show that if the deadline miss ratio of data packets is 0.2%, then the percentage error is 1.105%. The proposed model can be used at several stages of CNC system development.
文摘IEEE 802.11 distributed coordination function （DCF） is a distributed medium access scheme based on carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance （CSMA/CA） protocol. Many literatures have analyzed the performance of IEEE802.11 DCF. However, such literatures either used simulation methods or built the analytical models under the assumption that the saturation condition was satisfied. To overcome such a problem, in this paper, a hi-dimensional Markovian model has been introduced to depict the DCF mechanism. The proposed model introduced an idle stage and a discrete time M/G/1 queue to deduce the channel throughput under finite load traffic. Simulation results proved the accuracy of the proposed model.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFB0202105,2016YFB0201305,2016YFB0200803,2016YFB0200300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61521092,91430218,31327901,61472395,61432018).
文摘Performance models provide insightful perspectives to predict performance and to propose optimization guidance.Although there has been much researches,pinpointing bottlenecks of various memory access patterns and reaching high accurate prediction of both regular and irregular programs on various hardware configurations are still not trivial.This work proposes a novel model called process-RAM-feedback(PRF)to quantify the overhead of computation and data transmission time on general-purpose multi-core processors.The PRF model predicts the cost of instruction for singlecore by a directed acyclic graph(DAG)and the transmission time of memory access between each memory hierarchy through a newly designed cache simulator.By using performance modeling and feedback optimization method,this paper uses PRF model to analyze and optimize convolution,sparse matrix-vector multiplication and sn-sweep as case study for covering with typical regular kernel to irregular and data dependence.Through the PRF model,it obtains optimization guidance with various sparsity structures,algorithm designs,and instruction sets support on different data sizes.
文摘Helper-thread of a task can hide the memory access time of irregular data on the chip muhi-core processor （CMP）. For constructing a compiler that effectively supports the helper-thread of a task in the multi-core scenario based on the last level shared cache, this paper studies its performance stable condi- tions. Unfortunately, there is no existing model that allows extensive investigation of the impact of stable conditions, we present the base of pre-computation that is formalized by our degraded task-pair 〈 T, T＇ 〉 with the helper-thread, and its stable conditions are analyzed. Finally, a novel performance model and a constructing method of pre-computation based on our positive degraded task-pair are proposed. The efficient results are shown by our experiments. If we further exploit memory level parallelism （MLP） for our task-pair, the task-pair 〈 T, T＇ 〉 can reach better performance.
文摘Evaluating performance of individual features of WiMAX technology is a topic of widespread discussion. Currently, there is no quantitative way of measuring WiMAX technology so that wireless operators can meet their design objectives. This paper outlines a set of design criteria for WiMAX and provides a decision-making aid that ranks the importance of criteria using Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP）. This ranking should sufficiently reflect market expectations of the relative importance of various design criteria. A model integrating AHP priorities with enhanced Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） is the basis for formulating a technological value in simple, comparable format. A case study is provided to show how this technological value is used to evaluate a three year network deployment plan. In the future, this model could be extended to WiMAX equipment suppliers for the purpose of validating performance targets of individual criteria, and enhancing supplier roadmaps for future network development.
文摘This paper describes an innovative adaptive algorithmic modeling approach, for solving a wide class of e-business and strategic management problems under uncertainty conditions. The proposed methodology is based on basic ideas and concepts of four key-field interrelated sciences, i.e., computing science, applied mathematics, management sciences and economic sciences. Furthermore, the fundamental scientific concepts of adaptability and uncertainty are shown to play a critical role of major importance for a （near） optimum solution of a class of complex e-business/services and strategic management problems. Two characteristic case studies, namely measuring e-business performance under certain environmental pressures and organizational constraints and describing the relationships between technology, innovation and firm performance, are considered as effective applications of the proposed adaptive algorithmic modeling approach. A theoretical time-dependent model for the evaluation of firm e-business performances is also proposed.
文摘Applying the strategic performance method of the balanced score card and the new thinking, the text structures the balanced score card theoretical model Party and government, further investigates and sets up of performance evaluation to the Chinese leaders of the the applied function model and appraisal model of the balanced score card theoretical model of performance evaluation to the Chinese leaders of the Party and government. The foundation and implementation of these kinds of models can improve its competence and reign power; will promote the whole performance development of the Chinese Party and government organs, it will create the enormous economic benefits and social benefits.
文摘Today, in the field of computer networks, new services have been developed on the Internet or intranets, including the mail server, database management, sounds, videos and the web server itself Apache. The number of solutions for this server is therefore growing continuously, these services are becoming more and more complex and expensive, without being able to fulfill the needs of the users. The absence of benchmarks for websites with dynamic content is the major obstacle to research in this area. These users place high demands on the speed of access to information on the Internet. This is why the performance of the web server is critically important. Several factors influence performance, such as server execution speed, network saturation on the internet or intranet, increased response time, and throughputs. By measuring these factors, we propose a performance evaluation strategy for servers that allows us to determine the actual performance of different servers in terms of user satisfaction. Furthermore, we identified performance characteristics such as throughput, resource utilization, and response time of a system through measurement and modeling by simulation. Finally, we present a simple queue model of an Apache web server, which reasonably represents the behavior of a saturated web server using the Simulink model in Matlab (Matrix Laboratory) and also incorporates sporadic incoming traffic. We obtain server performance metrics such as average response time and throughput through simulations. Compared to other models, our model is conceptually straightforward. The model has been validated through measurements and simulations during the tests that we conducted.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China grants no.41972326 and 51774258.
文摘This study compared the predictive performance and processing speed of an artificial neural network(ANN)and a hybrid of a numerical reservoir simulation(NRS)and artificial neural network(NRS-ANN)models in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under waterflood recovery.The historical input variables:reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hydrocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate used as inputs for ANN models.To create the NRS-ANN hybrid models,314 data sets extracted from the NRS model,which included reservoir pressure,reservoir pore volume containing hy-drocarbons,reservoir pore volume containing water and reservoir water injection rate were used.The output of the models was the historical oil production rate(HOPR in m^(3) per day)recorded from the ZH86 reservoir block.Models were developed using MATLAB R2021a and trained with 25 models in three replicate conditions(2,4 and 6),each at 1000 epochs.A comparative analysis indicated that,for all 25 models,the ANN outperformed the NRS-ANN in terms of processing speed and prediction performance.ANN models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.8433 and 8.0964 m^(3)/day values,respectively,while NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved an average of R^(2) and MAE of 0.7828 and 8.2484 m^(3)/day values,respectively.In addition,ANN models achieved a processing speed of 49 epochs/sec,32 epochs/sec,and 24 epochs/sec after 2,4,and 6 replicates,respectively.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid models achieved lower average processing speeds of 45 epochs/sec,23 epochs/sec and 20 epochs/sec.In addition,the ANN optimal model outperforms the NRS-ANN model in terms of both processing speed and accuracy.The ANN optimal model achieved a speed of 336.44 epochs/sec,compared to the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal model,which achieved a speed of 52.16 epochs/sec.The ANN optimal model achieved lower RMSE and MAE values of 7.9291 m^(3)/day and 5.3855 m^(3)/day in the validation dataset compared with the hybrid ANS optimal model,which achieved 13.6821 m^(3)/day and 9.2047 m^(3)/day,respectively.The study also showed that the ANN optimal model consistently achieved higher R^(2) values:0.9472,0.9284 and 0.9316 in the training,test and validation data sets.Whereas the NRS-ANN hybrid optimal yielded lower R^(2) values of 0.8030,0.8622 and 0.7776 for the training,testing and validation datasets.The study showed that ANN models are a more effective and reliable tool,as they balance both processing speed and accuracy in estimating the oil production rate of the ZH86 reservoir block under the waterflooding recovery method.
