Tibetan spruce (Picea smithiana) is an endemic species of the Himalayas,and it distributes only in a re-stricted area with very low number.To address the lack of detailed distributional information,we used maximum en-...Tibetan spruce (Picea smithiana) is an endemic species of the Himalayas,and it distributes only in a re-stricted area with very low number.To address the lack of detailed distributional information,we used maximum en-tropy (Maxent) niche-based model to predict the species' potential distribution from limited occurrence-only records.The location data of P.smithiana,relative bioclimatic variables,vegetation data,digital elevation model (DEM),and the derived data were analyzed in Maxent.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess the prediction accuracy.The Maxent jackknife test was performed to quantify the training gains from data layers and the response of P.smithiana distribution to four typical environmental variables was analyzed.Results show that the model performs well at the regional scale.There is a potential for continued expansion of P.smithiana population numbers and distribution in China.P.smithiana potentially distributes in the lower reaches of Gyirong Zangbo and Poiqu rivers in Gyirong and Nyalam counties in Qomolangma (Mount Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP),China.The species prefers warm temperate climate in mountain area and mainly distributes in needle-leaved evergreen closed to open forest and mixed forest along the river valley at relatively low altitudes of about 2000-3000 m.Model simulations suggest that distribution patterns of rare species with few species numbers can be well predicted by Max-ent.展开更多
Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Marko...Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.展开更多
Computer chip is always accompanied by the increase of heat dissipation and miniaturization. The miniature heat pipes are widely used in notebook computer to resolve the heat dissipation problems. Maximum heat removed...Computer chip is always accompanied by the increase of heat dissipation and miniaturization. The miniature heat pipes are widely used in notebook computer to resolve the heat dissipation problems. Maximum heat removed model of miniature heat pipes building by grey model is presented. In order to know the foundation for modeling, the smooth grade of error examination is inquired and the accuracy of grey relational grade is verified. The model can be used to select a suitable heat pipes to solve electric heat problems in the future. Final results show that the grey model only needs four experiment data and its error value is less than 10%, further, it is better than computational fluid dynamics （CFD） model.展开更多
This letter presents a new chunking method based on Maximum Entropy (ME) model with N-fold template correction model.First two types of machine learning models are described.Based on the analysis of the two models,the...This letter presents a new chunking method based on Maximum Entropy (ME) model with N-fold template correction model.First two types of machine learning models are described.Based on the analysis of the two models,then the chunking model which combines the profits of conditional probability model and rule based model is proposed.The selection of features and rule templates in the chunking model is discussed.Experimental results for the CoNLL-2000 corpus show that this approach achieves impressive accuracy in terms of the F-score:92.93%.Compared with the ME model and ME Markov model,the new chunking model achieves better performance.展开更多
The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis...The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.展开更多
The maximum entropy model was introduced and a new intrusion detection approach based on the maximum entropy model was proposed. The vector space model was adopted for data presentation. The minimal entropy partitioni...The maximum entropy model was introduced and a new intrusion detection approach based on the maximum entropy model was proposed. The vector space model was adopted for data presentation. The minimal entropy partitioning method was utilized for attribute diseretization. Experiments on the KDD CUP 1999 standard data set were designed and the experimental results were shown. The receiver operating eharaeteristie（ROC） curve analysis approach was utilized to analyze the experimental results. The analysis results show that the proposed approach is comparable to those based on support vector maehine（SVM） and outperforms those based on C4.5 and Naive Bayes classifiers. According to the overall evaluation result, the proposed approach is a little better than those based on SVM.展开更多
Detecting objects of interest from a video sequence is a fundamental and critical task in automated visual surveillance. Most current approaches only focus on discriminating moving objects by background subtraction wh...Detecting objects of interest from a video sequence is a fundamental and critical task in automated visual surveillance. Most current approaches only focus on discriminating moving objects by background subtraction whether or not the objects of interest can be moving or stationary. In this paper, we propose layers segmentation to detect both moving and stationary target objects from surveillance video. We extend the Maximum Entropy (ME) statistical model to segment layers with features, which are collected by constructing a codebook with a set of codewords for each pixel. We also indicate how the training models are used for the discrimination of target objects in surveillance video. Our experimental results are presented in terms of the success rate and the segmenting precision.展开更多
Background: Hylurgus ligniperda(Fabricius) is native to Europe but has established populations in many countries and regions. H. ligniperda mainly infests Pinus species, and can cause severe weakness and even death of...Background: Hylurgus ligniperda(Fabricius) is native to Europe but has established populations in many countries and regions. H. ligniperda mainly infests Pinus species, and can cause severe weakness and even death of the host through its boring activity;it can also be a vector of various pathogenic fungi. This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables limiting the distribution of H. ligniperda and the change trend of its suitable areas under climate change.Results: We used a maximum entropy model to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda on a global scale under near current and future climatic scenarios using its occurrence data and environmental variables. The result shows that the areas surrounding the Mediterranean region, the eastern coastal areas of Asia, and the southeastern part of Oceania are highly suitable for H. ligniperda. The environmental variables with the greatest effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda were determined using the jackknife method and Pearson’s correlation analysis and included the monthly average maximum temperature in April, precipitation of driest quarter, the monthly average minimum temperature in December, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and mean diurnal range.Conclusions: Excessive precipitation in winter and low temperatures in spring had a great effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda. The potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda was predicted to change under future climatic conditions compared with near current climate conditions. Highly suitable areas, moderately suitable areas and low suitable areas were predicted to increase by 59.99%, 44.43% and 22.92%, respectively, under the2081–2100 ssp245 scenario.展开更多
This paper discusses the estimation of parameters in the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model by the method of moments. The method of moments estimators (MMEs) are analytically compared with the maximum likelihood estima...This paper discusses the estimation of parameters in the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model by the method of moments. The method of moments estimators (MMEs) are analytically compared with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs). The results of a modest simulation study are presented.展开更多
Right randomly censored data with incomplete infor-mation are frequently met in practice.Although much study about right randomly censored data has been seen in the proportional hazards model,relatively little is know...Right randomly censored data with incomplete infor-mation are frequently met in practice.Although much study about right randomly censored data has been seen in the proportional hazards model,relatively little is known about the inference of regression parameters for right randomly censored data with in-complete information in such model.In particular,theoretical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator of the regression parameters have not been proven yet in that model.In this paper,we show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maxi-mum likelihood estimator of unknown regression parameters.展开更多
This paper applied Maximum Entropy (ME) model to Pinyin-To-Character (PTC) conversion in-stead of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that could not include complicated and long-distance lexical informa-tion. Two ME models were...This paper applied Maximum Entropy (ME) model to Pinyin-To-Character (PTC) conversion in-stead of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that could not include complicated and long-distance lexical informa-tion. Two ME models were built based on simple and complex templates respectively, and the complex one gave better conversion result. Furthermore, conversion trigger pair of y A → y B cBwas proposed to extract the long-distance constrain feature from the corpus; and then Average Mutual Information (AMI) was used to se-lect conversion trigger pair features which were added to the ME model. The experiment shows that conver-sion error of the ME with conversion trigger pairs is reduced by 4% on a small training corpus, comparing with HMM smoothed by absolute smoothing.展开更多
In this paper we study optimal advertising problems that model the introduction of a new product into the market in the presence of carryover effects of the advertisement and with memory effects in the level of goodwi...In this paper we study optimal advertising problems that model the introduction of a new product into the market in the presence of carryover effects of the advertisement and with memory effects in the level of goodwill. In particular, we let the dynamics of the product goodwill to depend on the past, and also on past advertising efforts. We treat the problem by means of the stochastic Pontryagin maximum principle, that here is considered for a class of problems where in the state equation either the state or the control depend on the past. Moreover the control acts on the martingale term and the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex but now the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex. The maximum principle is thus formulated using a first-order adjoint Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs), which can be explicitly computed due to the specific characteristics of the model, and a second-order adjoint relation.展开更多
Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） ...Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.展开更多
The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with clim...The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.展开更多
A Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms has been developed to analyze Smith’s discretized version of the discovery process model. It avoids the problems involved in the maximum likelihood method...A Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms has been developed to analyze Smith’s discretized version of the discovery process model. It avoids the problems involved in the maximum likelihood method by effectively making use of the information from the prior distribution and that from the discovery sequence according to posterior probabilities. All statistical inferences about the parameters of the model and total resources can be quantified by drawing samples directly from the joint posterior distribution. In addition, statistical errors of the samples can be easily assessed and the convergence properties can be monitored during the sampling. Because the information contained in a discovery sequence is not enough to estimate all parameters, especially the number of fields, geologically justified prior information is crucial to the estimation. The Bayesian approach allows the analyst to specify his subjective estimates of the required parameters and his degree of uncertainty about the estimates in a clearly identified fashion throughout the analysis. As an example, this approach is applied to the same data of the North Sea on which Smith demonstrated his maximum likelihood method. For this case, the Bayesian approach has really improved the overly pessimistic results and downward bias of the maximum likelihood procedure.展开更多
This paper considers the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the Box-Cox transformation model with heteroscedastic disturbances. The MLE under the normality assumption (BC MLE) is a con...This paper considers the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the Box-Cox transformation model with heteroscedastic disturbances. The MLE under the normality assumption (BC MLE) is a consistent and asymptotically efficient estimator if the “small ” condition is satisfied and the number of parameters is finite. However, the BC MLE cannot be asymptotically efficient and its rate of convergence is slower than ordinal order when the number of parameters goes to infinity. Anew consistent estimator of order is proposed. One important implication of this study is that estimation methods should be carefully chosen when the model contains many parameters in actual empirical studies.展开更多
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of severa...Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Basic Research Program of China (No.2010CB951704)Institutional Consolidation for Coordinated and Integrated Monitoring of Natural Resources towards Sustainable Development and Environmental Conservation in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya Mountain Complex (No.76444-000)External Cooperation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.GJHZ0954)
文摘Tibetan spruce (Picea smithiana) is an endemic species of the Himalayas,and it distributes only in a re-stricted area with very low number.To address the lack of detailed distributional information,we used maximum en-tropy (Maxent) niche-based model to predict the species' potential distribution from limited occurrence-only records.The location data of P.smithiana,relative bioclimatic variables,vegetation data,digital elevation model (DEM),and the derived data were analyzed in Maxent.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess the prediction accuracy.The Maxent jackknife test was performed to quantify the training gains from data layers and the response of P.smithiana distribution to four typical environmental variables was analyzed.Results show that the model performs well at the regional scale.There is a potential for continued expansion of P.smithiana population numbers and distribution in China.P.smithiana potentially distributes in the lower reaches of Gyirong Zangbo and Poiqu rivers in Gyirong and Nyalam counties in Qomolangma (Mount Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP),China.The species prefers warm temperate climate in mountain area and mainly distributes in needle-leaved evergreen closed to open forest and mixed forest along the river valley at relatively low altitudes of about 2000-3000 m.Model simulations suggest that distribution patterns of rare species with few species numbers can be well predicted by Max-ent.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (50879085)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University(NCET-07-0778)the Key Technology Research Project of Dynamic Environmental Flume for Ocean Monitoring Facilities (201005027-4)
文摘Compared with traditional real-time forecasting,this paper proposes a Grey Markov Model(GMM) to forecast the maximum water levels at hydrological stations in the estuary area.The GMM combines the Grey System and Markov theory into a higher precision model.The GMM takes advantage of the Grey System to predict the trend values and uses the Markov theory to forecast fluctuation values,and thus gives forecast results involving two aspects of information.The procedure for forecasting annul maximum water levels with the GMM contains five main steps:1) establish the GM(1,1) model based on the data series;2) estimate the trend values;3) establish a Markov Model based on relative error series;4) modify the relative errors caused in step 2,and then obtain the relative errors of the second order estimation;5) compare the results with measured data and estimate the accuracy.The historical water level records(from 1960 to 1992) at Yuqiao Hydrological Station in the estuary area of the Haihe River near Tianjin,China are utilized to calibrate and verify the proposed model according to the above steps.Every 25 years' data are regarded as a hydro-sequence.Eight groups of simulated results show reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the measured data.The GMM is also applied to the 10 other hydrological stations in the same estuary.The forecast results for all of the hydrological stations are good or acceptable.The feasibility and effectiveness of this new forecasting model have been proved in this paper.
文摘Computer chip is always accompanied by the increase of heat dissipation and miniaturization. The miniature heat pipes are widely used in notebook computer to resolve the heat dissipation problems. Maximum heat removed model of miniature heat pipes building by grey model is presented. In order to know the foundation for modeling, the smooth grade of error examination is inquired and the accuracy of grey relational grade is verified. The model can be used to select a suitable heat pipes to solve electric heat problems in the future. Final results show that the grey model only needs four experiment data and its error value is less than 10%, further, it is better than computational fluid dynamics （CFD） model.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60504021).
文摘This letter presents a new chunking method based on Maximum Entropy (ME) model with N-fold template correction model.First two types of machine learning models are described.Based on the analysis of the two models,then the chunking model which combines the profits of conditional probability model and rule based model is proposed.The selection of features and rule templates in the chunking model is discussed.Experimental results for the CoNLL-2000 corpus show that this approach achieves impressive accuracy in terms of the F-score:92.93%.Compared with the ME model and ME Markov model,the new chunking model achieves better performance.
基金the auspices of A Category of Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA20010101)。
文摘The spatial interaction model is an effective way to explore the geographical disparities inherent in the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI) by simulating spatial flows. The traditional gravity model implies the hypothesis of equilibrium points without any reference to when or how to achieve it. In this paper, a dynamic gravity model was established based on the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt) theory to estimate and monitor the interconnection intensity and dynamic characters of bilateral relations. In order to detect the determinants of interconnection intensity, a Geodetector method was applied to identify and evaluate the determinants of spatial networks in five dimensions. The empirical study clearly demonstrates a heterogeneous and non-circular spatial structure. The main driving forces of spatial-temporal evolution are foreign direct investment, tourism and railway infrastructure construction, while determinants in different sub-regions show obvious spatial differentiation. Southeast Asian countries are typically multi-island area where aviation infrastructure plays a more important role. North and Central Asian countries regard oil as a pillar industry where power and port facilities have a greater impact on the interconnection. While Western Asian countries are mostly influenced by the railway infrastructure, Eastern European countries already have relatively robust infrastructure where tariff policies provide a greater impetus.
基金Supported bythe National Research Foundationforthe Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China(20030145029) the Teaching and Research Award Program for Outstanding Young Teachers in Higher Education Institutions of the Ministry ofEducation
文摘The maximum entropy model was introduced and a new intrusion detection approach based on the maximum entropy model was proposed. The vector space model was adopted for data presentation. The minimal entropy partitioning method was utilized for attribute diseretization. Experiments on the KDD CUP 1999 standard data set were designed and the experimental results were shown. The receiver operating eharaeteristie（ROC） curve analysis approach was utilized to analyze the experimental results. The analysis results show that the proposed approach is comparable to those based on support vector maehine（SVM） and outperforms those based on C4.5 and Naive Bayes classifiers. According to the overall evaluation result, the proposed approach is a little better than those based on SVM.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 60272031), and Technology Plan Program of ZhejiangProvince (No. 2003C21010), and Zhejiang Provincial Natural Sci-ence Foundation of China (No. M603202)
文摘Detecting objects of interest from a video sequence is a fundamental and critical task in automated visual surveillance. Most current approaches only focus on discriminating moving objects by background subtraction whether or not the objects of interest can be moving or stationary. In this paper, we propose layers segmentation to detect both moving and stationary target objects from surveillance video. We extend the Maximum Entropy (ME) statistical model to segment layers with features, which are collected by constructing a codebook with a set of codewords for each pixel. We also indicate how the training models are used for the discrimination of target objects in surveillance video. Our experimental results are presented in terms of the success rate and the segmenting precision.
基金funded by National Key R&D Program of China(No. 2021YFC2600400)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 32171794)Forestry Science and Technology Innovation Special of Jiangxi Forestry Department (No. 201912)
文摘Background: Hylurgus ligniperda(Fabricius) is native to Europe but has established populations in many countries and regions. H. ligniperda mainly infests Pinus species, and can cause severe weakness and even death of the host through its boring activity;it can also be a vector of various pathogenic fungi. This study was conducted to investigate the environmental variables limiting the distribution of H. ligniperda and the change trend of its suitable areas under climate change.Results: We used a maximum entropy model to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda on a global scale under near current and future climatic scenarios using its occurrence data and environmental variables. The result shows that the areas surrounding the Mediterranean region, the eastern coastal areas of Asia, and the southeastern part of Oceania are highly suitable for H. ligniperda. The environmental variables with the greatest effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda were determined using the jackknife method and Pearson’s correlation analysis and included the monthly average maximum temperature in April, precipitation of driest quarter, the monthly average minimum temperature in December, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean temperature of driest quarter and mean diurnal range.Conclusions: Excessive precipitation in winter and low temperatures in spring had a great effect on the distribution of H. ligniperda. The potential geographical distribution of H. ligniperda was predicted to change under future climatic conditions compared with near current climate conditions. Highly suitable areas, moderately suitable areas and low suitable areas were predicted to increase by 59.99%, 44.43% and 22.92%, respectively, under the2081–2100 ssp245 scenario.
文摘This paper discusses the estimation of parameters in the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model by the method of moments. The method of moments estimators (MMEs) are analytically compared with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs). The results of a modest simulation study are presented.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10771163)
文摘Right randomly censored data with incomplete infor-mation are frequently met in practice.Although much study about right randomly censored data has been seen in the proportional hazards model,relatively little is known about the inference of regression parameters for right randomly censored data with in-complete information in such model.In particular,theoretical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator of the regression parameters have not been proven yet in that model.In this paper,we show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maxi-mum likelihood estimator of unknown regression parameters.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China as key program (No.60435020) and The HighTechnology Research and Development Programme of China (2002AA117010-09).
文摘This paper applied Maximum Entropy (ME) model to Pinyin-To-Character (PTC) conversion in-stead of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that could not include complicated and long-distance lexical informa-tion. Two ME models were built based on simple and complex templates respectively, and the complex one gave better conversion result. Furthermore, conversion trigger pair of y A → y B cBwas proposed to extract the long-distance constrain feature from the corpus; and then Average Mutual Information (AMI) was used to se-lect conversion trigger pair features which were added to the ME model. The experiment shows that conver-sion error of the ME with conversion trigger pairs is reduced by 4% on a small training corpus, comparing with HMM smoothed by absolute smoothing.
文摘In this paper we study optimal advertising problems that model the introduction of a new product into the market in the presence of carryover effects of the advertisement and with memory effects in the level of goodwill. In particular, we let the dynamics of the product goodwill to depend on the past, and also on past advertising efforts. We treat the problem by means of the stochastic Pontryagin maximum principle, that here is considered for a class of problems where in the state equation either the state or the control depend on the past. Moreover the control acts on the martingale term and the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex but now the space of controls U can be chosen to be non-convex. The maximum principle is thus formulated using a first-order adjoint Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs), which can be explicitly computed due to the specific characteristics of the model, and a second-order adjoint relation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (10761011)Mathematical Tianyuan Fund of National Natural Science Fundation of China(10626048)
文摘Quasi-likelihood nonlinear models （QLNM） include generalized linear models as a special case. Under some regularity conditions, the rate of the strong consistency of the maximum quasi-likelihood estimation （MQLE） is obtained in QLNM. In an important case, this rate is O（n-^1/2（loglogn）^1/2）, which is just the rate of LIL of partial sums for i.i.d variables, and thus cannot be improved anymore.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1427100)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFD2401303)the Shanghai Talent Development Funding for the Project(No.2021078)。
文摘The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.
文摘A Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms has been developed to analyze Smith’s discretized version of the discovery process model. It avoids the problems involved in the maximum likelihood method by effectively making use of the information from the prior distribution and that from the discovery sequence according to posterior probabilities. All statistical inferences about the parameters of the model and total resources can be quantified by drawing samples directly from the joint posterior distribution. In addition, statistical errors of the samples can be easily assessed and the convergence properties can be monitored during the sampling. Because the information contained in a discovery sequence is not enough to estimate all parameters, especially the number of fields, geologically justified prior information is crucial to the estimation. The Bayesian approach allows the analyst to specify his subjective estimates of the required parameters and his degree of uncertainty about the estimates in a clearly identified fashion throughout the analysis. As an example, this approach is applied to the same data of the North Sea on which Smith demonstrated his maximum likelihood method. For this case, the Bayesian approach has really improved the overly pessimistic results and downward bias of the maximum likelihood procedure.
文摘This paper considers the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the Box-Cox transformation model with heteroscedastic disturbances. The MLE under the normality assumption (BC MLE) is a consistent and asymptotically efficient estimator if the “small ” condition is satisfied and the number of parameters is finite. However, the BC MLE cannot be asymptotically efficient and its rate of convergence is slower than ordinal order when the number of parameters goes to infinity. Anew consistent estimator of order is proposed. One important implication of this study is that estimation methods should be carefully chosen when the model contains many parameters in actual empirical studies.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (4007401340134010)Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (042002) and the project during the Tenth Five-year Plan.
文摘Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
