In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of ...In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.展开更多
Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are establishe...Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.展开更多
This paper reviews differences between the deterministic(sharp and diffuse)and statistical models of the interphase region between the two-phases.In the literature this region is usually referred to as the(macroscopic...This paper reviews differences between the deterministic(sharp and diffuse)and statistical models of the interphase region between the two-phases.In the literature this region is usually referred to as the(macroscopic)interface.Therein,the mesoscopic interface that is defined at the molecular level and agitated by the thermal fluctuations is found with nonzero probability.For this reason,in this work,the interphase region is called the mesoscopic intermittency/transition region.To this purpose,the first part of the present work gives the rationale for introduction of the mesoscopic intermittency region statistical model.It is argued that classical(deterministic)sharp and diffuse models do not explain the experimental and numerical results presented in the literature.Afterwards,it is elucidated that a statistical model of the mesoscopic intermittency region(SMIR)combines existing sharp and diffuse models into a single coherent framework and explains published experimental and numerical results.In the second part of the present paper,the SMIR is used for the first time to predict equilibrium and nonequilibrium two-phase flow in the numerical simulation.To this goal,a two-dimensional rising gas bubble is studied;obtained numerical results are used as a basis to discuss differences between the deterministic and statistical models showing the statistical description has a potential to account for the physical phenomena not previously considered in the computer simulations.展开更多
In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main ...In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main objective is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the methods in separation of anomalies on the shear zone gold mineralization.For this purpose,samples were taken from the secondary lithogeochemical environment(stream sediment samples)on the gold mineralization in Saqqez,NW of Iran.Interpretation of the histograms and diagrams showed that the MPD is capable of identifying two phases of mineralization.The fractal method could separate only one phase of change based on the fractal dimension with high concentration areas of the Au element.The spatial analysis showed two mixed subpopulations after U=0 and another subpopulation with very high U values.The MPD analysis followed spatial analysis,which shows the detail of the variations.Six mineralized zones detected from local geochemical exploration results were used for validating the methods mentioned above.The MPD method was able to identify the anomalous areas higher than 90%,whereas the two other methods identified 60%(maximum)of the anomalous areas.The raw data without any estimation for the concentration was used by the MPD method using aminimum of calculations to determine the threshold values.Therefore,the MPD method is more robust than the other methods.The spatial analysis identified the detail soft hegeological and mineralization events that were affected in the study area.MPD is recommended as the best,and the spatial U-analysis is the next reliable method to be used.The fractal method could show more detail of the events and variations in the area with asymmetrical grid net and a higher density of sampling or at the detailed exploration stage.展开更多
The aim of the paper is to discover the general creep mechanisms for the short fiber reinforcement matrix composites (MMCs) under uniaxial stress states and to build a relationship between the macroscopic steady creep...The aim of the paper is to discover the general creep mechanisms for the short fiber reinforcement matrix composites (MMCs) under uniaxial stress states and to build a relationship between the macroscopic steady creep behavior and the material micro geometric parameters. The unit cell models were used to calculate the macroscopic creep behavior with different micro geometric parameters of fibers on different loading directions. The influence of the geometric parameters of the fibers and loading directions on the macroscopic creep behavior had been obtained, and described quantitatively. The matrix/fiber interface had been considered by a third layer, matrix/fiber interlayer, in the unit cells with different creep properties and thickness. Based on the numerical results of the unit cell models, a statistic model had been presented for the plane randomly-distributed-fiber MMCs. The fiber breakage had been taken into account in the statistic model for it starts experimentally early in the creep life. With the distribution of the geometric parameters of the fibers, the results of the statistic model agree well with the experiments. With the statistic model, the influence of the geometric parameters and the breakage of the fibers as well as the properties and thickness of, the interlayer on the macroscopic steady creep rate have been discussed.展开更多
Distribution of wave heights and surface elevations of wind-driven waves are studied. Records of surface elevations obtained from both field observations and laboratory measurements are analyzed. Wave heights can be a...Distribution of wave heights and surface elevations of wind-driven waves are studied. Records of surface elevations obtained from both field observations and laboratory measurements are analyzed. Wave heights can be approximated by normal, two-parameter Weibull, and/or Rayleigh distribution. However, while the first two models may have almost equal probabilities to fit measured data quite satisfactorily, the Rayleigh distribution does not appear to be a good model for the majority of the cases studied. Surface elevations from field data are well described by the Gaussian model, but as with increasing wind speeds, water surface in a wind-wave flume deviates from normality, and the Edgeworth/s form of the type A Gram-Charlier series is then applied.展开更多
In this paper, we evaluate semiempirical methods (AM1, PM3, and ZINDO), HF and DFT (B3LYP) in different basis sets to determine which method best describes the sign and magnitude of the geometrical parameters of artem...In this paper, we evaluate semiempirical methods (AM1, PM3, and ZINDO), HF and DFT (B3LYP) in different basis sets to determine which method best describes the sign and magnitude of the geometrical parameters of artemisinin in the region of the endoperoxide ring compared to crystallographic data. We also classify these methods using statistical analysis. The results of PCA were based on three main components, explaining 98.0539% of the total variance, for the geometrical parameters C3O13, O1O2C3, O13C12C12a, and O2C3O13C12. The DFT method (B3LYP) corresponded well with the experimental data in the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). The experimental and theoretical angles were analyzed by simple linear regression, and statistical parameters (correlation coefficients, significance, and predictability) were evaluated to determine the accuracy of the calculations. The statistical analysis exhibited a good correlation and high predictive power for the DFT (B3LYP) method in the 6-31G** basis set.展开更多
Regression estimates are biased when potential confounders are omitted or when there are other similar risks to validity.The instrumental variable(IV)method can be used instead to obtain less biased estimates or to st...Regression estimates are biased when potential confounders are omitted or when there are other similar risks to validity.The instrumental variable(IV)method can be used instead to obtain less biased estimates or to strengthen causal inferences.One key assumption critical to the validity of the IV method is the exclusion assumption,which requires instruments to be correlated with the outcome variable only through endogenous predictors.The chi-square test of model fit is widely used as a diagnostic test for this assumption.Previous simulation studies assessed the power of this diagnostic test only in situations with strong violations of the exclusion assumption.However,low to moderate levels of assumption violation are not uncommon in reality,especially when the exclusion assumption is violated indirectly.In this study,we showed through Monte Carlo simulations that the chi-square model fit test suffered from a severe lack of power(<30%)to detect violations of the exclusion assumption when the level of violation was of typical size,and the IV causal inferences were severely inaccurate and misleading in this case.We thus advise using the IV method with caution unless there is a chance for thorough assumption diagnostics,like in meta-analyses or experiments.展开更多
A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochast...A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined （DSC） approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average （SARIMA） models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term （10-year） environmental planning and decision making.展开更多
At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by gover...At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization.To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend,parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters.In this study,the authors propose using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm(LMA)to identify epidemic models.This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss–Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters.The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method.The results show that the Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well,while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.展开更多
We introduce a framework for statistical inference of the closure coefficients using machine learning methods.The objective of this framework is to quantify the epistemic uncertainty associated with the closure model ...We introduce a framework for statistical inference of the closure coefficients using machine learning methods.The objective of this framework is to quantify the epistemic uncertainty associated with the closure model by using experimental data via Bayesian statistics.The framework is tailored towards cases for which a limited amount of experimental data is available.It consists of two components.First,by treating all latent variables(non-observed variables)in the model as stochastic variables,all sources of uncertainty of the probabilistic closure model are quantified by a fully Bayesian approach.The probabilistic model is defined to consist of the closure coefficients as parameters and other parameters incorporating noise.Then,the uncertainty associated with the closure coefficients is extracted from the overall uncertainty by considering the noise being zero.The overall uncertainty is rigorously evaluated by using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling assisted by surrogate models.We apply the framework to the Spalart-Allmars one-equation turbulence model.Two test cases are considered,including an industrially relevant full aircraft model at transonic flow conditions,the Airbus XRF1.Eventually,we demonstrate that epistemic uncertainties in the closure coefficients result into uncertainties in flow quantities of interest which are prominent around,and downstream,of the shock occurring over the XRF1 wing.This data-driven approach could help to enhance the predictive capabilities of CFD in terms of reliable turbulence modeling at extremes of the flight envelope if measured data is available,which is important in the context of robust design and towards virtual aircraft certification.The plentiful amount of information about the uncertainties could also assist when it comes to estimating the influence of the measured data on the inferred model coefficients.Finally,the developed framework is flexible and can be applied to different test cases and to various turbulence models.展开更多
Parameter optimization of a hydrological model is an indispensable process within model development and application.The lack of knowledge regarding the efficient optimization of model parameters often results in a bot...Parameter optimization of a hydrological model is an indispensable process within model development and application.The lack of knowledge regarding the efficient optimization of model parameters often results in a bottle-neck within the modeling process,resulting in the effective calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models being more difficult to achieve.The classical approaches to global parameter optimization are usually characterized by being time consuming,and having a high computation cost.For this reason,an integrated approach coupling a meta-modeling approach with the SCE-UA method was proposed,and applied within this study to optimize hydrological model parameter estimation.Meta-modeling was used to determine the optimization range for all parameters,following which the SCE-UA method was applied to achieve global parameter optimization.The multivariate regression adaptive splines method was used to construct the response surface as a surrogate model to a complex hydrological model.In this study,the daily distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM) applied to the Huaihe River Basin,China,was chosen as a case study.The integrated objective function based on the water balance coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was used to evaluate the model performance.The case study shows that the integrated method can efficiently complete the multi-parameter optimization process,and also demonstrates that the method is a powerful tool for efficient parameter optimization.展开更多
The lattice Boltzmann method （LBM） is coupled with the multiple-relaxation- time （MRT） collision model and the three-dimensional 19-discrete-velocity （D3Q19） model to resolve intermittent behaviors on small scal...The lattice Boltzmann method （LBM） is coupled with the multiple-relaxation- time （MRT） collision model and the three-dimensional 19-discrete-velocity （D3Q19） model to resolve intermittent behaviors on small scales in isotropic turbulent flows. The high- order scaling exponents of the velocity structure functions, the probability distribution functions of Lagrangian accelerations, and the local energy dissipation rates are investi- gated. The self-similarity of the space-time velocity structure functions is explored using the extended self-similarity （ESS） method, which was originally developed for velocity spatial structure functions. The scaling exponents of spatial structure functions at up to ten orders are consistent with the experimental measurements and theoretical results, implying that the LBM can accurately resolve the intermittent behaviors. This valida~ tion provides a solid basis for using the LBM to study more complex processes that are sensitive to small scales in turbulent flows, such as the relative dispersion of pollutants and mesoscale structures of preferential concentration of heavy particles suspended in turbulent flows.展开更多
The present paper reviews the vibro-acoustic modelling of extruded aluminium train floor structures including the state-of-the-art of its industrial applications, as well as the most recent developments on mid-frequen...The present paper reviews the vibro-acoustic modelling of extruded aluminium train floor structures including the state-of-the-art of its industrial applications, as well as the most recent developments on mid-frequency mod- elling techniques in general. With the common purpose to predict mid-frequency vibro-acoustic responses of stiffened panel structures to an acceptable accuracy at a reasonable computational cost, relevant techniques are mainly based on one of the following three types of mid-frequency vibro- acoustic modelling principles： （1） enhanced deterministic methods, （2） enhanced statistical methods, and （3） hybrid deterministic/statistical methods. It is shown that, although recent developments have led to a significant step forward in industrial applicability, mature and adequate prediction tech- niques, however, are still very much required for solving sound transmission through, and radiation from, extruded aluminium panels used on high-speed trains. Due to their great potentials for predicting mid-frequency vibro-acoustics of stiffened panel structures, two of recently developed mid-frequency modelling approaches, i.e. the so-called hybrid finite element-statistical energy analysis （FE-SEA） and hybrid wave-based method- statistical energy analysis （WBM-SEA）, are then recapitulated.展开更多
This article concerns the calculation of the wave period probability densities in non-Gaussiau mixed sea states. The calculations are carried out by incorporating a second order nonlinear wave model into an asymptotic...This article concerns the calculation of the wave period probability densities in non-Gaussiau mixed sea states. The calculations are carried out by incorporating a second order nonlinear wave model into an asymptotic analysis method which is a novel approach to the calculation of wave period probability densities. Since all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, the approach avoids long time-domain sinmlations. The accuracy and efficiency of the asymptotic analysis method for calculating the wave period probability densities are validated by comparing the results predicted using the method with those predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation （MCS） method.展开更多
The current epidemic outbreak COVID-19 first took place in the Wuhan city of China and then spread worldwide.This deadly disease affected millions of people and compelled the governments and other concerned institutio...The current epidemic outbreak COVID-19 first took place in the Wuhan city of China and then spread worldwide.This deadly disease affected millions of people and compelled the governments and other concerned institutions to take serious actions.Around 0.28 million people have died from the COVID-19 outbreak as of May 11,2020,05:41 GMT,and the number is still increasing exponentially.The results of any scientific investigation of this phenomenon are still to come.However,now it is urgently needed to evaluate and compare the disease dynamics to improve the quarantine activities and the level of individual protection,to at least speed up the rate of isolation of infected persons.In the domain of big data science and other related areas,it is always of interest to provide the best description of the data under consideration.Therefore,in this article,we compare the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics between two neighboring Asian countries,Iran and Pakistan,to provide a framework to arrange the appropriate quarantine activities.Simple tools for comparing this deadly pandemic dynamic have been presented that can be adopted to produce the bases for inferences.Most importantly,a new statistical model is developed to provide the best description of COVID-19 daily deaths data in Iran and Pakistan.展开更多
Guastello’s polynomial regression method for solving cusp catastrophe model has been widely applied to analyze nonlinear behavior outcomes. However, no statistical power analysis for this modeling approach has been r...Guastello’s polynomial regression method for solving cusp catastrophe model has been widely applied to analyze nonlinear behavior outcomes. However, no statistical power analysis for this modeling approach has been reported probably due to the complex nature of the cusp catastrophe model. Since statistical power analysis is essential for research design, we propose a novel method in this paper to fill in the gap. The method is simulation-based and can be used to calculate statistical power and sample size when Guastello’s polynomial regression method is used to do cusp catastrophe modeling analysis. With this novel approach, a power curve is produced first to depict the relationship between statistical power and samples size under different model specifications. This power curve is then used to determine sample size required for specified statistical power. We verify the method first through four scenarios generated through Monte Carlo simulations, and followed by an application of the method with real published data in modeling early sexual initiation among young adolescents. Findings of our study suggest that this simulation-based power analysis method can be used to estimate sample size and statistical power for Guastello’s polynomial regression method in cusp catastrophe modeling.展开更多
The accuracy of background clutter model is a key factor which determines the performance of a constant false alarm rate(CFAR) target detection method. G0 distribution is one of the optimal statistic models in the syn...The accuracy of background clutter model is a key factor which determines the performance of a constant false alarm rate(CFAR) target detection method. G0 distribution is one of the optimal statistic models in the synthetic aperture radar(SAR) image background clutter modeling and can accurately model various complex background clutters in the SAR images. But the application of the distribution is greatly limited by its disadvantages that the parameter estimation is complex and the local detection threshold is difficult to be obtained. In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, an synthetic aperture radar CFAR target detection method using the logarithmic cumulant(Mo LC) + method of moment(Mo M)-based G0 distribution clutter model is proposed. In the method, G0 distribution is used for modeling the background clutters, a new Mo LC+Mo M-based parameter estimation method coupled with a fast iterative algorithm is used for estimating the parameters of G0 distribution and an exquisite dichotomy method is used for obtaining the local detection threshold of CFAR detection, which greatly improves the computational efficiency, detection performance and environmental adaptability of CFAR detection. Experimental results show that the proposed SAR CFAR target detection method has good target detection performance in various complex background clutter environments.展开更多
In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and...In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and testing system limits without real-world repercussions.In simulation modeling,the Monte Carlo method emerges as a powerful yet underutilized tool.Although the Monte Carlo method has not yet gained widespread prominence in healthcare,its technological capabilities hold promise for substantial cost reduction and risk mitigation.In this review article,we aimed to explore the transformative potential of the Monte Carlo method in healthcare contexts.We underscore the significance of experiential insights derived from simulated experimentation,especially in resource-constrained scenarios where time,financial constraints,and limited resources necessitate innovative and efficient approaches.As public health faces increasing challenges,incorporating the Monte Carlo method presents an opportunity for enhanced system construction,analysis,and evaluation.展开更多
Government credibility is an important asset of contemporary national governance, an important criterion for evaluating government legitimacy, and a key factor in measuring the effectiveness of government governance. ...Government credibility is an important asset of contemporary national governance, an important criterion for evaluating government legitimacy, and a key factor in measuring the effectiveness of government governance. In recent years, researchers’ research on government credibility has mostly focused on exploring theories and mechanisms, with little empirical research on this topic. This article intends to apply variable selection models in the field of social statistics to the issue of government credibility, in order to achieve empirical research on government credibility and explore its core influencing factors from a statistical perspective. Specifically, this article intends to use four regression-analysis-based methods and three random-forest-based methods to study the influencing factors of government credibility in various provinces in China, and compare the performance of these seven variable selection methods in different dimensions. The research results show that there are certain differences in simplicity, accuracy, and variable importance ranking among different variable selection methods, which present different importance in the study of government credibility issues. This study provides a methodological reference for variable selection models in the field of social science research, and also offers a multidimensional comparative perspective for analyzing the influencing factors of government credibility.展开更多
基金This work was supported jointly by the Typhoon Foundation of Shanghaiby LASC of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesby the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40633030.
文摘In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (No. 2010CB428703)Oceanic Science Fund for Young Scholar of SOA (Nos. 2010225, 2010118)+1 种基金Public Science and Technology Research Funds Projects of Ocean of China (Nos. 201005008, 201005009)Open Fund of MOIDAT (No. 201011)
文摘Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.
基金This work was supported by the National Science Center,Poland(Narodowe Centrum Nauki,Polska)in the project“Statistical modeling of turbulent two-fluid flows with interfaces”(Grant No.2016/21/B/ST8/01010,ID:334165).
文摘This paper reviews differences between the deterministic(sharp and diffuse)and statistical models of the interphase region between the two-phases.In the literature this region is usually referred to as the(macroscopic)interface.Therein,the mesoscopic interface that is defined at the molecular level and agitated by the thermal fluctuations is found with nonzero probability.For this reason,in this work,the interphase region is called the mesoscopic intermittency/transition region.To this purpose,the first part of the present work gives the rationale for introduction of the mesoscopic intermittency region statistical model.It is argued that classical(deterministic)sharp and diffuse models do not explain the experimental and numerical results presented in the literature.Afterwards,it is elucidated that a statistical model of the mesoscopic intermittency region(SMIR)combines existing sharp and diffuse models into a single coherent framework and explains published experimental and numerical results.In the second part of the present paper,the SMIR is used for the first time to predict equilibrium and nonequilibrium two-phase flow in the numerical simulation.To this goal,a two-dimensional rising gas bubble is studied;obtained numerical results are used as a basis to discuss differences between the deterministic and statistical models showing the statistical description has a potential to account for the physical phenomena not previously considered in the computer simulations.
文摘In this study,geochemical anomaly separation was carried out with methods based on the distribution model,which includes probability diagram(MPD),fractal(concentration-area technique),and U-statistic methods.The main objective is to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the methods in separation of anomalies on the shear zone gold mineralization.For this purpose,samples were taken from the secondary lithogeochemical environment(stream sediment samples)on the gold mineralization in Saqqez,NW of Iran.Interpretation of the histograms and diagrams showed that the MPD is capable of identifying two phases of mineralization.The fractal method could separate only one phase of change based on the fractal dimension with high concentration areas of the Au element.The spatial analysis showed two mixed subpopulations after U=0 and another subpopulation with very high U values.The MPD analysis followed spatial analysis,which shows the detail of the variations.Six mineralized zones detected from local geochemical exploration results were used for validating the methods mentioned above.The MPD method was able to identify the anomalous areas higher than 90%,whereas the two other methods identified 60%(maximum)of the anomalous areas.The raw data without any estimation for the concentration was used by the MPD method using aminimum of calculations to determine the threshold values.Therefore,the MPD method is more robust than the other methods.The spatial analysis identified the detail soft hegeological and mineralization events that were affected in the study area.MPD is recommended as the best,and the spatial U-analysis is the next reliable method to be used.The fractal method could show more detail of the events and variations in the area with asymmetrical grid net and a higher density of sampling or at the detailed exploration stage.
文摘The aim of the paper is to discover the general creep mechanisms for the short fiber reinforcement matrix composites (MMCs) under uniaxial stress states and to build a relationship between the macroscopic steady creep behavior and the material micro geometric parameters. The unit cell models were used to calculate the macroscopic creep behavior with different micro geometric parameters of fibers on different loading directions. The influence of the geometric parameters of the fibers and loading directions on the macroscopic creep behavior had been obtained, and described quantitatively. The matrix/fiber interface had been considered by a third layer, matrix/fiber interlayer, in the unit cells with different creep properties and thickness. Based on the numerical results of the unit cell models, a statistic model had been presented for the plane randomly-distributed-fiber MMCs. The fiber breakage had been taken into account in the statistic model for it starts experimentally early in the creep life. With the distribution of the geometric parameters of the fibers, the results of the statistic model agree well with the experiments. With the statistic model, the influence of the geometric parameters and the breakage of the fibers as well as the properties and thickness of, the interlayer on the macroscopic steady creep rate have been discussed.
文摘Distribution of wave heights and surface elevations of wind-driven waves are studied. Records of surface elevations obtained from both field observations and laboratory measurements are analyzed. Wave heights can be approximated by normal, two-parameter Weibull, and/or Rayleigh distribution. However, while the first two models may have almost equal probabilities to fit measured data quite satisfactorily, the Rayleigh distribution does not appear to be a good model for the majority of the cases studied. Surface elevations from field data are well described by the Gaussian model, but as with increasing wind speeds, water surface in a wind-wave flume deviates from normality, and the Edgeworth/s form of the type A Gram-Charlier series is then applied.
文摘In this paper, we evaluate semiempirical methods (AM1, PM3, and ZINDO), HF and DFT (B3LYP) in different basis sets to determine which method best describes the sign and magnitude of the geometrical parameters of artemisinin in the region of the endoperoxide ring compared to crystallographic data. We also classify these methods using statistical analysis. The results of PCA were based on three main components, explaining 98.0539% of the total variance, for the geometrical parameters C3O13, O1O2C3, O13C12C12a, and O2C3O13C12. The DFT method (B3LYP) corresponded well with the experimental data in the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). The experimental and theoretical angles were analyzed by simple linear regression, and statistical parameters (correlation coefficients, significance, and predictability) were evaluated to determine the accuracy of the calculations. The statistical analysis exhibited a good correlation and high predictive power for the DFT (B3LYP) method in the 6-31G** basis set.
基金supported by Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2022A1515011986)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.31700986).
文摘Regression estimates are biased when potential confounders are omitted or when there are other similar risks to validity.The instrumental variable(IV)method can be used instead to obtain less biased estimates or to strengthen causal inferences.One key assumption critical to the validity of the IV method is the exclusion assumption,which requires instruments to be correlated with the outcome variable only through endogenous predictors.The chi-square test of model fit is widely used as a diagnostic test for this assumption.Previous simulation studies assessed the power of this diagnostic test only in situations with strong violations of the exclusion assumption.However,low to moderate levels of assumption violation are not uncommon in reality,especially when the exclusion assumption is violated indirectly.In this study,we showed through Monte Carlo simulations that the chi-square model fit test suffered from a severe lack of power(<30%)to detect violations of the exclusion assumption when the level of violation was of typical size,and the IV causal inferences were severely inaccurate and misleading in this case.We thus advise using the IV method with caution unless there is a chance for thorough assumption diagnostics,like in meta-analyses or experiments.
基金This research was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China，National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No.2010CB951504).The authors acknowledge support from the Flemish Interuniversity Council，the Ghent University Laboratory of Soil Science for the writing of this paper
文摘A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined （DSC） approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average （SARIMA） models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term （10-year） environmental planning and decision making.
基金This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41521004]the Gansu Provincial Special Fund Project for Guiding Scientific and Technological Innovation and Development[grant number 2019ZX-06].
文摘At the time of writing,coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is seriously threatening human lives and health throughout the world.Many epidemic models have been developed to provide references for decision-making by governments and the World Health Organization.To capture and understand the characteristics of the epidemic trend,parameter optimization algorithms are needed to obtain model parameters.In this study,the authors propose using the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm(LMA)to identify epidemic models.This algorithm combines the advantage of the Gauss–Newton method and gradient descent method and has improved the stability of parameters.The authors selected four countries with relatively high numbers of confirmed cases to verify the advantages of the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm over the traditional epidemiological model method.The results show that the Statistical-SIR(Statistical-Susceptible–Infected–Recovered)model using LMA can fit the actual curve of the epidemic well,while the epidemic simulation of the traditional model evolves too fast and the peak value is too high to reflect the real situation.
文摘We introduce a framework for statistical inference of the closure coefficients using machine learning methods.The objective of this framework is to quantify the epistemic uncertainty associated with the closure model by using experimental data via Bayesian statistics.The framework is tailored towards cases for which a limited amount of experimental data is available.It consists of two components.First,by treating all latent variables(non-observed variables)in the model as stochastic variables,all sources of uncertainty of the probabilistic closure model are quantified by a fully Bayesian approach.The probabilistic model is defined to consist of the closure coefficients as parameters and other parameters incorporating noise.Then,the uncertainty associated with the closure coefficients is extracted from the overall uncertainty by considering the noise being zero.The overall uncertainty is rigorously evaluated by using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampling assisted by surrogate models.We apply the framework to the Spalart-Allmars one-equation turbulence model.Two test cases are considered,including an industrially relevant full aircraft model at transonic flow conditions,the Airbus XRF1.Eventually,we demonstrate that epistemic uncertainties in the closure coefficients result into uncertainties in flow quantities of interest which are prominent around,and downstream,of the shock occurring over the XRF1 wing.This data-driven approach could help to enhance the predictive capabilities of CFD in terms of reliable turbulence modeling at extremes of the flight envelope if measured data is available,which is important in the context of robust design and towards virtual aircraft certification.The plentiful amount of information about the uncertainties could also assist when it comes to estimating the influence of the measured data on the inferred model coefficients.Finally,the developed framework is flexible and can be applied to different test cases and to various turbulence models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40901023)the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428403)
文摘Parameter optimization of a hydrological model is an indispensable process within model development and application.The lack of knowledge regarding the efficient optimization of model parameters often results in a bottle-neck within the modeling process,resulting in the effective calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models being more difficult to achieve.The classical approaches to global parameter optimization are usually characterized by being time consuming,and having a high computation cost.For this reason,an integrated approach coupling a meta-modeling approach with the SCE-UA method was proposed,and applied within this study to optimize hydrological model parameter estimation.Meta-modeling was used to determine the optimization range for all parameters,following which the SCE-UA method was applied to achieve global parameter optimization.The multivariate regression adaptive splines method was used to construct the response surface as a surrogate model to a complex hydrological model.In this study,the daily distributed time-variant gain model(DTVGM) applied to the Huaihe River Basin,China,was chosen as a case study.The integrated objective function based on the water balance coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was used to evaluate the model performance.The case study shows that the integrated method can efficiently complete the multi-parameter optimization process,and also demonstrates that the method is a powerful tool for efficient parameter optimization.
基金Project supported by the Science Challenge Program(No.TZ2016001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.11472277,11572331,11232011,and 11772337)+2 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)(No.XDB22040104)the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,CAS(No.QYZDJ-SSW-SYS002)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2013CB834100)
文摘The lattice Boltzmann method （LBM） is coupled with the multiple-relaxation- time （MRT） collision model and the three-dimensional 19-discrete-velocity （D3Q19） model to resolve intermittent behaviors on small scales in isotropic turbulent flows. The high- order scaling exponents of the velocity structure functions, the probability distribution functions of Lagrangian accelerations, and the local energy dissipation rates are investi- gated. The self-similarity of the space-time velocity structure functions is explored using the extended self-similarity （ESS） method, which was originally developed for velocity spatial structure functions. The scaling exponents of spatial structure functions at up to ten orders are consistent with the experimental measurements and theoretical results, implying that the LBM can accurately resolve the intermittent behaviors. This valida~ tion provides a solid basis for using the LBM to study more complex processes that are sensitive to small scales in turbulent flows, such as the relative dispersion of pollutants and mesoscale structures of preferential concentration of heavy particles suspended in turbulent flows.
基金sponsored by the NationalNatural foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1434201 and 51175300)
文摘The present paper reviews the vibro-acoustic modelling of extruded aluminium train floor structures including the state-of-the-art of its industrial applications, as well as the most recent developments on mid-frequency mod- elling techniques in general. With the common purpose to predict mid-frequency vibro-acoustic responses of stiffened panel structures to an acceptable accuracy at a reasonable computational cost, relevant techniques are mainly based on one of the following three types of mid-frequency vibro- acoustic modelling principles： （1） enhanced deterministic methods, （2） enhanced statistical methods, and （3） hybrid deterministic/statistical methods. It is shown that, although recent developments have led to a significant step forward in industrial applicability, mature and adequate prediction tech- niques, however, are still very much required for solving sound transmission through, and radiation from, extruded aluminium panels used on high-speed trains. Due to their great potentials for predicting mid-frequency vibro-acoustics of stiffened panel structures, two of recently developed mid-frequency modelling approaches, i.e. the so-called hybrid finite element-statistical energy analysis （FE-SEA） and hybrid wave-based method- statistical energy analysis （WBM-SEA）, are then recapitulated.
基金the Research Project from the Chinese State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering of Shanghai Jiaotong University(No.GKZD010038)
文摘This article concerns the calculation of the wave period probability densities in non-Gaussiau mixed sea states. The calculations are carried out by incorporating a second order nonlinear wave model into an asymptotic analysis method which is a novel approach to the calculation of wave period probability densities. Since all of the calculations are performed in the probability domain, the approach avoids long time-domain sinmlations. The accuracy and efficiency of the asymptotic analysis method for calculating the wave period probability densities are validated by comparing the results predicted using the method with those predicted by using the Monte-Carlo simulation （MCS） method.
基金supported by the Department of Statistics,Yazd University,Iran.
文摘The current epidemic outbreak COVID-19 first took place in the Wuhan city of China and then spread worldwide.This deadly disease affected millions of people and compelled the governments and other concerned institutions to take serious actions.Around 0.28 million people have died from the COVID-19 outbreak as of May 11,2020,05:41 GMT,and the number is still increasing exponentially.The results of any scientific investigation of this phenomenon are still to come.However,now it is urgently needed to evaluate and compare the disease dynamics to improve the quarantine activities and the level of individual protection,to at least speed up the rate of isolation of infected persons.In the domain of big data science and other related areas,it is always of interest to provide the best description of the data under consideration.Therefore,in this article,we compare the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics between two neighboring Asian countries,Iran and Pakistan,to provide a framework to arrange the appropriate quarantine activities.Simple tools for comparing this deadly pandemic dynamic have been presented that can be adopted to produce the bases for inferences.Most importantly,a new statistical model is developed to provide the best description of COVID-19 daily deaths data in Iran and Pakistan.
文摘Guastello’s polynomial regression method for solving cusp catastrophe model has been widely applied to analyze nonlinear behavior outcomes. However, no statistical power analysis for this modeling approach has been reported probably due to the complex nature of the cusp catastrophe model. Since statistical power analysis is essential for research design, we propose a novel method in this paper to fill in the gap. The method is simulation-based and can be used to calculate statistical power and sample size when Guastello’s polynomial regression method is used to do cusp catastrophe modeling analysis. With this novel approach, a power curve is produced first to depict the relationship between statistical power and samples size under different model specifications. This power curve is then used to determine sample size required for specified statistical power. We verify the method first through four scenarios generated through Monte Carlo simulations, and followed by an application of the method with real published data in modeling early sexual initiation among young adolescents. Findings of our study suggest that this simulation-based power analysis method can be used to estimate sample size and statistical power for Guastello’s polynomial regression method in cusp catastrophe modeling.
基金Project(61105020)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(13zxtk08)supported by the Key Research Platform for Research Projects of Southwest University of Science and Technology,China
文摘The accuracy of background clutter model is a key factor which determines the performance of a constant false alarm rate(CFAR) target detection method. G0 distribution is one of the optimal statistic models in the synthetic aperture radar(SAR) image background clutter modeling and can accurately model various complex background clutters in the SAR images. But the application of the distribution is greatly limited by its disadvantages that the parameter estimation is complex and the local detection threshold is difficult to be obtained. In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, an synthetic aperture radar CFAR target detection method using the logarithmic cumulant(Mo LC) + method of moment(Mo M)-based G0 distribution clutter model is proposed. In the method, G0 distribution is used for modeling the background clutters, a new Mo LC+Mo M-based parameter estimation method coupled with a fast iterative algorithm is used for estimating the parameters of G0 distribution and an exquisite dichotomy method is used for obtaining the local detection threshold of CFAR detection, which greatly improves the computational efficiency, detection performance and environmental adaptability of CFAR detection. Experimental results show that the proposed SAR CFAR target detection method has good target detection performance in various complex background clutter environments.
基金Supported by the European Union-NextGenerationEU,through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan of the Republic of Bulgaria,No.BG-RRP-2.004-0008.
文摘In public health,simulation modeling stands as an invaluable asset,enabling the evaluation of new systems without their physical implementation,experimentation with existing systems without operational adjustments,and testing system limits without real-world repercussions.In simulation modeling,the Monte Carlo method emerges as a powerful yet underutilized tool.Although the Monte Carlo method has not yet gained widespread prominence in healthcare,its technological capabilities hold promise for substantial cost reduction and risk mitigation.In this review article,we aimed to explore the transformative potential of the Monte Carlo method in healthcare contexts.We underscore the significance of experiential insights derived from simulated experimentation,especially in resource-constrained scenarios where time,financial constraints,and limited resources necessitate innovative and efficient approaches.As public health faces increasing challenges,incorporating the Monte Carlo method presents an opportunity for enhanced system construction,analysis,and evaluation.
文摘Government credibility is an important asset of contemporary national governance, an important criterion for evaluating government legitimacy, and a key factor in measuring the effectiveness of government governance. In recent years, researchers’ research on government credibility has mostly focused on exploring theories and mechanisms, with little empirical research on this topic. This article intends to apply variable selection models in the field of social statistics to the issue of government credibility, in order to achieve empirical research on government credibility and explore its core influencing factors from a statistical perspective. Specifically, this article intends to use four regression-analysis-based methods and three random-forest-based methods to study the influencing factors of government credibility in various provinces in China, and compare the performance of these seven variable selection methods in different dimensions. The research results show that there are certain differences in simplicity, accuracy, and variable importance ranking among different variable selection methods, which present different importance in the study of government credibility issues. This study provides a methodological reference for variable selection models in the field of social science research, and also offers a multidimensional comparative perspective for analyzing the influencing factors of government credibility.
