Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate ...Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate for actual situations.Although soil exhibits material nonlinearity under earthquake excitation,existing research on the TI medium is limited to soil linearity and neglects the nonlinear response of TI sites.A 2D equivalent linear model for a layered TI half-space subjected to seismic waves is derived in the transformed wave number domain using the exact dynamic stiffness matrix of the TI medium.This study introduces a method for determining the effective shear strain of TI sites under oblique wave incidence,and further describes a systematic study on the effects of TI parameters and soil nonlinearity on site responses.Numerical results indicate that seismic responses of the TI medium significantly differ from those of isotropic sites and that the responses are highly dependent on TI parameters,particularly in nonlinear cases,while also being sensitive to incident angle and excitation intensity.Moreover,the differences in peak acceleration and waveform for various TI materials may also be amplified due to the strong nonlinearity.The study provides valuable insights for improving the accuracy of seismic response analysis in engineering applications.展开更多
The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the ...Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.展开更多
In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining ...In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.展开更多
The virtuality and openness of online social platforms make networks a hotbed for the rapid propagation of various rumors.In order to block the outbreak of rumor,one of the most effective containment measures is sprea...The virtuality and openness of online social platforms make networks a hotbed for the rapid propagation of various rumors.In order to block the outbreak of rumor,one of the most effective containment measures is spreading positive information to counterbalance the diffusion of rumor.The spreading mechanism of rumors and effective suppression strategies are significant and challenging research issues.Firstly,in order to simulate the dissemination of multiple types of information,we propose a competitive linear threshold model with state transition(CLTST)to describe the spreading process of rumor and anti-rumor in the same network.Subsequently,we put forward a community-based rumor blocking(CRB)algorithm based on influence maximization theory in social networks.Its crucial step is to identify a set of influential seeds that propagate anti-rumor information to other nodes,which includes community detection,selection of candidate anti-rumor seeds and generation of anti-rumor seed set.Under the CLTST model,the CRB algorithm has been compared with six state-of-the-art algorithms on nine online social networks to verify the performance.Experimental results show that the proposed model can better reflect the process of rumor propagation,and review the propagation mechanism of rumor and anti-rumor in online social networks.Moreover,the proposed CRB algorithm has better performance in weakening the rumor dissemination ability,which can select anti-rumor seeds in networks more accurately and achieve better performance in influence spread,sensitivity analysis,seeds distribution and running time.展开更多
Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,...Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.展开更多
As maritime activities increase globally,there is a greater dependency on technology in monitoring,control,and surveillance of vessel activity.One of the most prominent systems for monitoring vessel activity is the Au...As maritime activities increase globally,there is a greater dependency on technology in monitoring,control,and surveillance of vessel activity.One of the most prominent systems for monitoring vessel activity is the Automatic Identification System(AIS).An increase in both vessels fitted with AIS transponders and satellite and terrestrial AIS receivers has resulted in a significant increase in AIS messages received globally.This resultant rich spatial and temporal data source related to vessel activity provides analysts with the ability to perform enhanced vessel movement analytics,of which a pertinent example is the improvement of vessel location predictions.In this paper,we propose a novel strategy for predicting future locations of vessels making use of historic AIS data.The proposed method uses a Linear Regression Model(LRM)and utilizes historic AIS movement data in the form of a-priori generated spatial maps of the course over ground(LRMAC).The LRMAC is an accurate low complexity first-order method that is easy to implement operationally and shows promising results in areas where there is a consistency in the directionality of historic vessel movement.In areas where the historic directionality of vessel movement is diverse,such as areas close to harbors and ports,the LRMAC defaults to the LRM.The proposed LRMAC method is compared to the Single-Point Neighbor Search(SPNS),which is also a first-order method and has a similar level of computational complexity,and for the use case of predicting tanker and cargo vessel trajectories up to 8 hours into the future,the LRMAC showed improved results both in terms of prediction accuracy and execution time.展开更多
Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations inc...Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations include the Ångström-Prescott linear model and four amongst its derivatives, i.e. logarithmic, exponential, power and quadratic functions. Monthly mean values of daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for a period of 20 to 23 years, from the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU), have been used. For any of the six stations, ten single or double linear regressions have been developed from the above-said five functions, to relate in terms of monthly mean values, the daily clearness index () to each of the next two kinds of relative sunshine duration (RSD): and . In those ratios, G<sub>0</sub>, S<sub>0 </sub>and stand for the extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface, the day length and the modified day length taking into account the natural site’s horizon, respectively. According to the calculated mean values of the clearness index and the RSD, each station experiences a high number of fairly clear (or partially cloudy) days. Estimated values of the dependent variable (y) in each developed linear regression, have been compared to measured values in terms of the coefficients of correlation (R) and of determination (R<sub>2</sub>), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the t-statistics. Mean values of these statistical indicators have been used to rank, according to decreasing performance level, firstly the ten developed equations per station on account of the overall six stations, secondly the six stations on account of the overall ten equations. Nevertheless, the obtained values of those indicators lay in the next ranges for all the developed sixty equations:;;;, with . These results lead to assert that any of the sixty developed linear regressions (and thus equations in terms of and ), fits very adequately measured data, and should be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for the relevant station. It is also found that using as RSD, is slightly more advantageous than using for estimating the monthly average daily clearness index, . Moreover, values of statistical indicators of this study match adequately data from other works on the same kinds of empirical equations.展开更多
Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using general...Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.展开更多
Compositional data, such as relative information, is a crucial aspect of machine learning and other related fields. It is typically recorded as closed data or sums to a constant, like 100%. The statistical linear mode...Compositional data, such as relative information, is a crucial aspect of machine learning and other related fields. It is typically recorded as closed data or sums to a constant, like 100%. The statistical linear model is the most used technique for identifying hidden relationships between underlying random variables of interest. However, data quality is a significant challenge in machine learning, especially when missing data is present. The linear regression model is a commonly used statistical modeling technique used in various applications to find relationships between variables of interest. When estimating linear regression parameters which are useful for things like future prediction and partial effects analysis of independent variables, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the method of choice. However, many datasets contain missing observations, which can lead to costly and time-consuming data recovery. To address this issue, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been suggested as a solution for situations including missing data. The EM algorithm repeatedly finds the best estimates of parameters in statistical models that depend on variables or data that have not been observed. This is called maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori (MAP). Using the present estimate as input, the expectation (E) step constructs a log-likelihood function. Finding the parameters that maximize the anticipated log-likelihood, as determined in the E step, is the job of the maximization (M) phase. This study looked at how well the EM algorithm worked on a made-up compositional dataset with missing observations. It used both the robust least square version and ordinary least square regression techniques. The efficacy of the EM algorithm was compared with two alternative imputation techniques, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) and mean imputation (), in terms of Aitchison distances and covariance.展开更多
Based on modeling principle of GM（1,1）model and linear regression model,a combined prediction model is established to predict equipment fault by the fitting of two models.The new prediction model takes full advantag...Based on modeling principle of GM（1,1）model and linear regression model,a combined prediction model is established to predict equipment fault by the fitting of two models.The new prediction model takes full advantage of prediction information provided by the two models and improves the prediction precision.Finally,this model is introduced to predict the system fault time according to the output voltages of a certain type of radar transmitter.展开更多
Pyrrolizidine alkaloids(PAs)and their N-oxides(PANOs)are phytotoxins produced by various plant species and have been emerged as environmental pollutants.The sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in soil are cruci...Pyrrolizidine alkaloids(PAs)and their N-oxides(PANOs)are phytotoxins produced by various plant species and have been emerged as environmental pollutants.The sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in soil are crucial due to the horizontal transfer of these natural products from PA-producing plants to soil and subsequently absorbed by plant roots.This study firstly investigated the sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in tea plantation soils with distinct characteristics.Sorption amounts for seneciphylline(Sp)and seneciphylline-N-oxide(SpNO)in three acidic soils ranged from 2.9 to 5.9μg/g and 1.7 to 2.8μg/g,respectively.Desorption percentages for Sp and SpNO were from 22.2%to 30.5%and 36.1%to 43.9%.In the mixed PAs/PANOs systems,stronger sorption of PAs over PANOs was occurred in tested soils.Additionally,the Freundlich models more precisely described the sorption/desorption isotherms.Cation exchange capacity,sand content and total nitrogen were identified as major influencing factors by linear regression models.Overall,the soils exhibiting higher sorption capacities for compounds with greater hydrophobicity.PANOs were more likely to migrate within soils and be absorbed by tea plants.It contributes to the understanding of environmental fate of PAs/PANOs in tea plantations and provides basic data and clues for the development of PAs/PANOs reduction technology.展开更多
The aim of this study was to assay the polyphenols,flavonoid,polyphenol oxidase and phenylalnine ammonialyase which were relative to the anthocyanins synthesis of purple corn. The optimization of multiple linear regre...The aim of this study was to assay the polyphenols,flavonoid,polyphenol oxidase and phenylalnine ammonialyase which were relative to the anthocyanins synthesis of purple corn. The optimization of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was y=4.383 86-0.205 45x1＋5.479 638x2＋0.195 575x4. According to standard partial regression coefficient testing,the result indicated that polyphenols content was negatively correlated with anthocyanins and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis was-42.7%; flavonoid content and activity of polyphenol oxidase were positively correlated with anthocyanins of purple corn and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis were 71.45% and 73.32% respectively. There was no positive correlation between the activity of phenylalnine ammonialyase and anthocyanins of purple corn. The establishment of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was to provide theory foundation of producing anthocyanins in laboratory.展开更多
Necessary and sufficient conditions for equalities between a 2 y′(I-P Xx)y and minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimator of variance under the general linear model, where a 2 is a known positive number, are...Necessary and sufficient conditions for equalities between a 2 y′(I-P Xx)y and minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimator of variance under the general linear model, where a 2 is a known positive number, are derived. Further, when the Gauss? Markov estimators and the ordinary least squares estimator are identical, a relative simply equivalent condition is obtained. At last, this condition is applied to an interesting example.展开更多
Plant invasion refers to the phenomenon that some plants grow too fast due to they are far away from the original living environment or predators, affecting the local environment. With the development of tourism and t...Plant invasion refers to the phenomenon that some plants grow too fast due to they are far away from the original living environment or predators, affecting the local environment. With the development of tourism and trade, the harm caused by invasive plants will be more and more serious. Therefore, it is necessary to ex- plore an effective method for controlling plant invasion through qualitative and quan- titative research. In this paper, the models were established for the early and late harmful plant invasion control. The huge computation was completed by the com- puter programming to obtain the optimal solutions of the models. The real meaning of the optimal solution was further discussed. Through numerical simulations and discussion, it could be concluded that the quantitative research on the invasive plant control had a certain application value.展开更多
The genus Beta encompasses economically important root crops such as sugar and table beet.A Beta diversity set including the wild relative B.vulgaris ssp.maritima was grown in the field,and a large phenotypic diversit...The genus Beta encompasses economically important root crops such as sugar and table beet.A Beta diversity set including the wild relative B.vulgaris ssp.maritima was grown in the field,and a large phenotypic diversity was observed.The genomes of 290 accessions were sequenced,and more than 10 million high-quality SNPs were employed to study genetic diversity.A genome-wide association study was performed,and marker-trait associations were found for nine phenotypic traits.The candidate gene within the M locus controlling monogermity on chromosome 4 was previously unknown.The most significant association for monogermity was identified at the end of chromosome 4.Within this region,a non-synonymous mutation within the zinc-finger domain of the WIP2 gene co-segregated with monogermity.This gene plays a regulatory role in AGL8/FUL in Arabidopsis.Intriguingly,commercial hybrids are in a heterozygous state at this position.Thus,the long-sought gene for monogermity was identified in this study.Red and yellow pigmentation due to betalain accumulation in shoots and roots is an important characteristic of table and leaf beets.The strongest associations were found upstream or downstream of two genes encoding Cytochrome P450 and anthocyanin MYB-like transcription factor proteins involved in betalain biosynthesis.Significant associations for Cercospora leaf spot resistance were identified on chromosomes 1,2,7,and 9.The associated regions harbor genes encoding proteins with leucinerich repeats and nucleotide binding sites whose homologs are major constituents of plant-pathogen defense.展开更多
Since its inception,the epsilon distribution has piqued the interest of statisticians.It has been successfully used to solve a variety of statistical problems.In this article,we propose to use the quadratic rank trans...Since its inception,the epsilon distribution has piqued the interest of statisticians.It has been successfully used to solve a variety of statistical problems.In this article,we propose to use the quadratic rank transmutation map mechanism to extend this distribution.This mechanism is not new;it was already used to improve the modeling capabilities of a number of existing distributions.For the original epsilon distribution,we expect the same benefits.As a result,we implement the transmuted epsilon distribution as a flexible three-parameter distribution with a bounded domain.We demonstrate its key features,focusing on the properties of its distributional mechanism and conducting quantile and moment analyses.Applications of the model are presented using two data sets.We also perform a regression analysis based on this distribution.展开更多
The multiscale variability in summer extreme persistent precipitation(SEPP)in China from 1961 to 2020 was investigated via three extreme precipitation indices:consecutive wet days,total precipitation amount,and daily ...The multiscale variability in summer extreme persistent precipitation(SEPP)in China from 1961 to 2020 was investigated via three extreme precipitation indices:consecutive wet days,total precipitation amount,and daily precipitation intensity.The relationships between precursory and concurrent global oceanic modes and SEPP were identified via a generalized linear model(GLM).The influence of oceanic modes on SEPP was finally investigated via numerical simulations.The results revealed that the climatological SEPP(≥14 days)mainly appears across the Tibetan Plateau,Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau,and South China coast.The first EOF mode for all three indices showed strong signals over the Yangtze River.Further analysis via the GLM suggested that the positive phases of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in autumn,ENSO in winter,the Indian Ocean Basin(IOB)in spring,and the western North Pacific(WNP)in summer emerged as the most effective precursory factors of SEPP,which could serve as preceding signals for future predictions,contributing 30.2%,36.4%,38.0%,and 55.6%,respectively,to the GLM.Sensitivity experiments revealed that SST forcing in all four seasons contributes to SEPP over China,whereas the winter and summer SST warming over the Pacific and Indian Ocean(IO)contributes the most.Diagnosis of the hydrological cycle suggested that water vapor advection predominantly originates from the western Pacific and IO in summer,driven by the strengthened subtropical high and Asian summer monsoon(ASM).The enhanced vertical water vapor transport is attributed to stronger upward motion across all four seasons.These findings are helpful for better understanding SEPP variabilities and their prediction under SST warming.展开更多
Maintaining optimal quality of life(QoL)is a pivotal for“successful aging”.Understanding how the QoL of the elderly develops and what role psychological factors play in its development will help improve QoL from a p...Maintaining optimal quality of life(QoL)is a pivotal for“successful aging”.Understanding how the QoL of the elderly develops and what role psychological factors play in its development will help improve QoL from a psychological perspective.Embedded within the lifespan theory of control,this longitudinal study aimed to(1)map the temporal trajectory of QoL among Chinese older adults,(2)examine differential effects of tripartite negative emotions(stress,anxiety,depression),and(3)test themoderating role of control strategies(goal engagement,goal disengagement,self-protection)in emotion-QoL dynamics.A prospective cohort of 345 community-dwelling older adults(Mage=83.84±8.49 years;55.1%female)completed validated measures-SF-36 for QoL,DASS-21 for negative emotions,and an adapted Control Strategies Questionnaire(CAS)-at three waves spanning 12 months.Hierarchical linear modeling(HLM)with time-nested structure analyzed intraindividual changes and interindividual differences.QoL exhibited a significant linear decline over time(β=−4.75,p<0.001).Stress(β=−14.12,p<0.001)and anxiety(β=−11.24,p<0.001)robustly predicted QoL decline,whereas depression showed no significant effect.Control strategies had divergent associations:goal engagement(β=3.51,p<0.001)and self-protection(β=2.38,p=0.015)predicted higher baseline QoL,while goal disengagement accelerated decline(β=−7.00,p<0.001;interaction with time:β=−2.46,p<0.001).Contrary to hypotheses,control strategies did not moderate emotion-QoL associations(ΔR2=0.02,p=0.21).The results showed that stress and anxiety played an important role in the QoL of the elderly.At the same time,goal engagement and self-protection were beneficial to the QoL of the elderly,while goal disengagement was not conducive to QoL and its development among the elderly.Meanwhile,the negative effect of anxiety and stress on the QoL of the elderly was not affected by the control strategies.展开更多
Doline susceptibility mapping(DSM)in karst aquifer is important in terms of estimating the vulnerability of the aquifer to pollutants,estimating the infiltration rate,and infrastructures exposed to the development of ...Doline susceptibility mapping(DSM)in karst aquifer is important in terms of estimating the vulnerability of the aquifer to pollutants,estimating the infiltration rate,and infrastructures exposed to the development of dolines.In this research,doline susceptibility map was prepared in Saldaran mountain by generalized linear model(GLM)using 14 affecting parameters extracted from satellite images,digital elevation model,and geology map.Only 8 parameters have been inputted to the model which had correlation with dolines.In this regards,306 dolines were identified by the photogrammetric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAV)method in 600 hectares of Salderan lands and then,these data were divided into the training(70%)and testing(30%)data for modelling.The results of DSM modeling showed that classified probability of doline occurrences in the Saldaran mountain were as follow:16.5%of the area high to very high,72%in the class of low to very low,and 5%in the moderate class.Also,locally,in Saldaran mountain,the Pirghar aquifer has the highest potential for the doline development,followed by Bagh Rostam and Sarab aquifers.Also,the precipitation,digital elevation model,Topographic Position Index,drainage density,slope,TRASP(transformed the circular aspect to a radiation index),Snow-Covered Days and vegetation cover index are of highest importance in the DSM modeling,respectively.Accurate evaluation of the model using the Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC)curve represents a very good accuracy(AUC=0.953)of the DSM model.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U2139208。
文摘Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate for actual situations.Although soil exhibits material nonlinearity under earthquake excitation,existing research on the TI medium is limited to soil linearity and neglects the nonlinear response of TI sites.A 2D equivalent linear model for a layered TI half-space subjected to seismic waves is derived in the transformed wave number domain using the exact dynamic stiffness matrix of the TI medium.This study introduces a method for determining the effective shear strain of TI sites under oblique wave incidence,and further describes a systematic study on the effects of TI parameters and soil nonlinearity on site responses.Numerical results indicate that seismic responses of the TI medium significantly differ from those of isotropic sites and that the responses are highly dependent on TI parameters,particularly in nonlinear cases,while also being sensitive to incident angle and excitation intensity.Moreover,the differences in peak acceleration and waveform for various TI materials may also be amplified due to the strong nonlinearity.The study provides valuable insights for improving the accuracy of seismic response analysis in engineering applications.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
基金the Project of the Key Open Laboratory of Atmospheric Detection,China Meteorological Administration(2023KLAS02M)the Second Batch of Science and Technology Project of China Meteorological Administration("Jiebangguashuai"):the Research and Development of Short-term and Near-term Warning Products for Severe Convective Weather in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region(CMAJBGS202307).
文摘Firstly,based on the data of air quality and the meteorological data in Baoding City from 2017 to 2021,the correlations of meteorological elements and pollutants with O_(3)concentration were explored to determine the forecast factors of forecast models.Secondly,the O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding City in 2021 was predicted based on the constructed models of multiple linear regression(MLR),backward propagation neural network(BPNN),and auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA),and the predicted values were compared with the observed values to test their prediction effects.The results show that overall,the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were able to forecast the changing trend of O_(3)-8h concentration in Baoding in 2021,but the BPNN model gave better forecast results than the ARIMA and MLR models,especially for the prediction of the high values of O_(3)-8h concentration,and the correlation coefficients between the predicted values and the observed values were all higher than 0.9 during June-September.The mean error(ME),mean absolute error(MAE),and root mean square error(RMSE)of the predicted values and the observed values of daily O_(3)-8h concentration based on the BPNN model were 0.45,19.11 and 24.41μg/m 3,respectively,which were significantly better than those of the MLR and ARIMA models.The prediction effects of the MLR,BPNN and ARIMA models were the best at the pollution level,followed by the excellent level,and it was the worst at the good level.In comparison,the prediction effect of BPNN model was better than that of the MLR and ARIMA models as a whole,especially for the pollution and excellent levels.The TS scores of the BPNN model were all above 66%,and the PC values were above 86%.The BPNN model can forecast the changing trend of O_(3)concentration more accurately,and has a good practical application value,but at the same time,the predicted high values of O_(3)concentration should be appropriately increased according to error characteristics of the model.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62272124)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFB2701401)+3 种基金Guizhou Province Science and Technology Plan Project(Grant Nos.Qiankehe Paltform Talent[2020]5017)The Research Project of Guizhou University for Talent Introduction(No.[2020]61)the Cultivation Project of Guizhou University(No.[2019]56)the Open Fund of Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology,Ministry of Education(GZUAMT2021KF[01]).
文摘In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.
基金supported by the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No.23BGL270)。
文摘The virtuality and openness of online social platforms make networks a hotbed for the rapid propagation of various rumors.In order to block the outbreak of rumor,one of the most effective containment measures is spreading positive information to counterbalance the diffusion of rumor.The spreading mechanism of rumors and effective suppression strategies are significant and challenging research issues.Firstly,in order to simulate the dissemination of multiple types of information,we propose a competitive linear threshold model with state transition(CLTST)to describe the spreading process of rumor and anti-rumor in the same network.Subsequently,we put forward a community-based rumor blocking(CRB)algorithm based on influence maximization theory in social networks.Its crucial step is to identify a set of influential seeds that propagate anti-rumor information to other nodes,which includes community detection,selection of candidate anti-rumor seeds and generation of anti-rumor seed set.Under the CLTST model,the CRB algorithm has been compared with six state-of-the-art algorithms on nine online social networks to verify the performance.Experimental results show that the proposed model can better reflect the process of rumor propagation,and review the propagation mechanism of rumor and anti-rumor in online social networks.Moreover,the proposed CRB algorithm has better performance in weakening the rumor dissemination ability,which can select anti-rumor seeds in networks more accurately and achieve better performance in influence spread,sensitivity analysis,seeds distribution and running time.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261008,41971034)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province,China(22JR5RA074).
文摘Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.
文摘As maritime activities increase globally,there is a greater dependency on technology in monitoring,control,and surveillance of vessel activity.One of the most prominent systems for monitoring vessel activity is the Automatic Identification System(AIS).An increase in both vessels fitted with AIS transponders and satellite and terrestrial AIS receivers has resulted in a significant increase in AIS messages received globally.This resultant rich spatial and temporal data source related to vessel activity provides analysts with the ability to perform enhanced vessel movement analytics,of which a pertinent example is the improvement of vessel location predictions.In this paper,we propose a novel strategy for predicting future locations of vessels making use of historic AIS data.The proposed method uses a Linear Regression Model(LRM)and utilizes historic AIS movement data in the form of a-priori generated spatial maps of the course over ground(LRMAC).The LRMAC is an accurate low complexity first-order method that is easy to implement operationally and shows promising results in areas where there is a consistency in the directionality of historic vessel movement.In areas where the historic directionality of vessel movement is diverse,such as areas close to harbors and ports,the LRMAC defaults to the LRM.The proposed LRMAC method is compared to the Single-Point Neighbor Search(SPNS),which is also a first-order method and has a similar level of computational complexity,and for the use case of predicting tanker and cargo vessel trajectories up to 8 hours into the future,the LRMAC showed improved results both in terms of prediction accuracy and execution time.
文摘Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations include the Ångström-Prescott linear model and four amongst its derivatives, i.e. logarithmic, exponential, power and quadratic functions. Monthly mean values of daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for a period of 20 to 23 years, from the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU), have been used. For any of the six stations, ten single or double linear regressions have been developed from the above-said five functions, to relate in terms of monthly mean values, the daily clearness index () to each of the next two kinds of relative sunshine duration (RSD): and . In those ratios, G<sub>0</sub>, S<sub>0 </sub>and stand for the extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface, the day length and the modified day length taking into account the natural site’s horizon, respectively. According to the calculated mean values of the clearness index and the RSD, each station experiences a high number of fairly clear (or partially cloudy) days. Estimated values of the dependent variable (y) in each developed linear regression, have been compared to measured values in terms of the coefficients of correlation (R) and of determination (R<sub>2</sub>), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the t-statistics. Mean values of these statistical indicators have been used to rank, according to decreasing performance level, firstly the ten developed equations per station on account of the overall six stations, secondly the six stations on account of the overall ten equations. Nevertheless, the obtained values of those indicators lay in the next ranges for all the developed sixty equations:;;;, with . These results lead to assert that any of the sixty developed linear regressions (and thus equations in terms of and ), fits very adequately measured data, and should be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for the relevant station. It is also found that using as RSD, is slightly more advantageous than using for estimating the monthly average daily clearness index, . Moreover, values of statistical indicators of this study match adequately data from other works on the same kinds of empirical equations.
文摘Adaptive fractional polynomial modeling of general correlated outcomes is formulated to address nonlinearity in means, variances/dispersions, and correlations. Means and variances/dispersions are modeled using generalized linear models in fixed effects/coefficients. Correlations are modeled using random effects/coefficients. Nonlinearity is addressed using power transforms of primary (untransformed) predictors. Parameter estimation is based on extended linear mixed modeling generalizing both generalized estimating equations and linear mixed modeling. Models are evaluated using likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores and are generated adaptively using a heuristic search controlled by LCV scores. Cases covered include linear, Poisson, logistic, exponential, and discrete regression of correlated continuous, count/rate, dichotomous, positive continuous, and discrete numeric outcomes treated as normally, Poisson, Bernoulli, exponentially, and discrete numerically distributed, respectively. Example analyses are also generated for these five cases to compare adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes to previously developed adaptive modeling based on directly specified covariance structures. Adaptive random effects/coefficients modeling substantially outperforms direct covariance modeling in the linear, exponential, and discrete regression example analyses. It generates equivalent results in the logistic regression example analyses and it is substantially outperformed in the Poisson regression case. Random effects/coefficients modeling of correlated outcomes can provide substantial improvements in model selection compared to directly specified covariance modeling. However, directly specified covariance modeling can generate competitive or substantially better results in some cases while usually requiring less computation time.
文摘Compositional data, such as relative information, is a crucial aspect of machine learning and other related fields. It is typically recorded as closed data or sums to a constant, like 100%. The statistical linear model is the most used technique for identifying hidden relationships between underlying random variables of interest. However, data quality is a significant challenge in machine learning, especially when missing data is present. The linear regression model is a commonly used statistical modeling technique used in various applications to find relationships between variables of interest. When estimating linear regression parameters which are useful for things like future prediction and partial effects analysis of independent variables, maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the method of choice. However, many datasets contain missing observations, which can lead to costly and time-consuming data recovery. To address this issue, the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been suggested as a solution for situations including missing data. The EM algorithm repeatedly finds the best estimates of parameters in statistical models that depend on variables or data that have not been observed. This is called maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori (MAP). Using the present estimate as input, the expectation (E) step constructs a log-likelihood function. Finding the parameters that maximize the anticipated log-likelihood, as determined in the E step, is the job of the maximization (M) phase. This study looked at how well the EM algorithm worked on a made-up compositional dataset with missing observations. It used both the robust least square version and ordinary least square regression techniques. The efficacy of the EM algorithm was compared with two alternative imputation techniques, k-Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) and mean imputation (), in terms of Aitchison distances and covariance.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51175480)
文摘Based on modeling principle of GM（1,1）model and linear regression model,a combined prediction model is established to predict equipment fault by the fitting of two models.The new prediction model takes full advantage of prediction information provided by the two models and improves the prediction precision.Finally,this model is introduced to predict the system fault time according to the output voltages of a certain type of radar transmitter.
基金supported by the earmarked fund for the Modern Agro-Industry Technology Research System (No.CARS-19)the Innovative Research Team in Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (No.CAAS ASTIP-2014-TRICAAS).
文摘Pyrrolizidine alkaloids(PAs)and their N-oxides(PANOs)are phytotoxins produced by various plant species and have been emerged as environmental pollutants.The sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in soil are crucial due to the horizontal transfer of these natural products from PA-producing plants to soil and subsequently absorbed by plant roots.This study firstly investigated the sorption/desorption behaviors of PAs/PANOs in tea plantation soils with distinct characteristics.Sorption amounts for seneciphylline(Sp)and seneciphylline-N-oxide(SpNO)in three acidic soils ranged from 2.9 to 5.9μg/g and 1.7 to 2.8μg/g,respectively.Desorption percentages for Sp and SpNO were from 22.2%to 30.5%and 36.1%to 43.9%.In the mixed PAs/PANOs systems,stronger sorption of PAs over PANOs was occurred in tested soils.Additionally,the Freundlich models more precisely described the sorption/desorption isotherms.Cation exchange capacity,sand content and total nitrogen were identified as major influencing factors by linear regression models.Overall,the soils exhibiting higher sorption capacities for compounds with greater hydrophobicity.PANOs were more likely to migrate within soils and be absorbed by tea plants.It contributes to the understanding of environmental fate of PAs/PANOs in tea plantations and provides basic data and clues for the development of PAs/PANOs reduction technology.
文摘The aim of this study was to assay the polyphenols,flavonoid,polyphenol oxidase and phenylalnine ammonialyase which were relative to the anthocyanins synthesis of purple corn. The optimization of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was y=4.383 86-0.205 45x1＋5.479 638x2＋0.195 575x4. According to standard partial regression coefficient testing,the result indicated that polyphenols content was negatively correlated with anthocyanins and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis was-42.7%; flavonoid content and activity of polyphenol oxidase were positively correlated with anthocyanins of purple corn and the relative influence to anthocyanins synthesis were 71.45% and 73.32% respectively. There was no positive correlation between the activity of phenylalnine ammonialyase and anthocyanins of purple corn. The establishment of multiple linear regression model of anthocyanins synthesis was to provide theory foundation of producing anthocyanins in laboratory.
文摘Necessary and sufficient conditions for equalities between a 2 y′(I-P Xx)y and minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimator of variance under the general linear model, where a 2 is a known positive number, are derived. Further, when the Gauss? Markov estimators and the ordinary least squares estimator are identical, a relative simply equivalent condition is obtained. At last, this condition is applied to an interesting example.
文摘Plant invasion refers to the phenomenon that some plants grow too fast due to they are far away from the original living environment or predators, affecting the local environment. With the development of tourism and trade, the harm caused by invasive plants will be more and more serious. Therefore, it is necessary to ex- plore an effective method for controlling plant invasion through qualitative and quan- titative research. In this paper, the models were established for the early and late harmful plant invasion control. The huge computation was completed by the com- puter programming to obtain the optimal solutions of the models. The real meaning of the optimal solution was further discussed. Through numerical simulations and discussion, it could be concluded that the quantitative research on the invasive plant control had a certain application value.
基金the financial support from the German Research Foundation(Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft,DFG)—Project Number 400993799(Project 2 within the Research Training Group 2501 Translational Evolutionary Research,https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/400993799)supported by the BMBF-funded de.NBI Cloud,part of the German Network for Bioinformatics(de.NBI)。
文摘The genus Beta encompasses economically important root crops such as sugar and table beet.A Beta diversity set including the wild relative B.vulgaris ssp.maritima was grown in the field,and a large phenotypic diversity was observed.The genomes of 290 accessions were sequenced,and more than 10 million high-quality SNPs were employed to study genetic diversity.A genome-wide association study was performed,and marker-trait associations were found for nine phenotypic traits.The candidate gene within the M locus controlling monogermity on chromosome 4 was previously unknown.The most significant association for monogermity was identified at the end of chromosome 4.Within this region,a non-synonymous mutation within the zinc-finger domain of the WIP2 gene co-segregated with monogermity.This gene plays a regulatory role in AGL8/FUL in Arabidopsis.Intriguingly,commercial hybrids are in a heterozygous state at this position.Thus,the long-sought gene for monogermity was identified in this study.Red and yellow pigmentation due to betalain accumulation in shoots and roots is an important characteristic of table and leaf beets.The strongest associations were found upstream or downstream of two genes encoding Cytochrome P450 and anthocyanin MYB-like transcription factor proteins involved in betalain biosynthesis.Significant associations for Cercospora leaf spot resistance were identified on chromosomes 1,2,7,and 9.The associated regions harbor genes encoding proteins with leucinerich repeats and nucleotide binding sites whose homologs are major constituents of plant-pathogen defense.
文摘Since its inception,the epsilon distribution has piqued the interest of statisticians.It has been successfully used to solve a variety of statistical problems.In this article,we propose to use the quadratic rank transmutation map mechanism to extend this distribution.This mechanism is not new;it was already used to improve the modeling capabilities of a number of existing distributions.For the original epsilon distribution,we expect the same benefits.As a result,we implement the transmuted epsilon distribution as a flexible three-parameter distribution with a bounded domain.We demonstrate its key features,focusing on the properties of its distributional mechanism and conducting quantile and moment analyses.Applications of the model are presented using two data sets.We also perform a regression analysis based on this distribution.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42122035,42288101,42130605,72293604,42475179,and 42475020)the support of the Guangdong Provincial Observation and Research Station for Tropical Ocean Environment in Western Coastal Waters(GSTOEW)+2 种基金Key Laboratory of Space Ocean Remote Sensing and ApplicationCMAGDOU Joint Laboratory for Marine MeteorologyKey Laboratory of Climate Resources and Environment in Continental Shelf Sea and Deep Ocean(LCRE)。
文摘The multiscale variability in summer extreme persistent precipitation(SEPP)in China from 1961 to 2020 was investigated via three extreme precipitation indices:consecutive wet days,total precipitation amount,and daily precipitation intensity.The relationships between precursory and concurrent global oceanic modes and SEPP were identified via a generalized linear model(GLM).The influence of oceanic modes on SEPP was finally investigated via numerical simulations.The results revealed that the climatological SEPP(≥14 days)mainly appears across the Tibetan Plateau,Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau,and South China coast.The first EOF mode for all three indices showed strong signals over the Yangtze River.Further analysis via the GLM suggested that the positive phases of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in autumn,ENSO in winter,the Indian Ocean Basin(IOB)in spring,and the western North Pacific(WNP)in summer emerged as the most effective precursory factors of SEPP,which could serve as preceding signals for future predictions,contributing 30.2%,36.4%,38.0%,and 55.6%,respectively,to the GLM.Sensitivity experiments revealed that SST forcing in all four seasons contributes to SEPP over China,whereas the winter and summer SST warming over the Pacific and Indian Ocean(IO)contributes the most.Diagnosis of the hydrological cycle suggested that water vapor advection predominantly originates from the western Pacific and IO in summer,driven by the strengthened subtropical high and Asian summer monsoon(ASM).The enhanced vertical water vapor transport is attributed to stronger upward motion across all four seasons.These findings are helpful for better understanding SEPP variabilities and their prediction under SST warming.
文摘Maintaining optimal quality of life(QoL)is a pivotal for“successful aging”.Understanding how the QoL of the elderly develops and what role psychological factors play in its development will help improve QoL from a psychological perspective.Embedded within the lifespan theory of control,this longitudinal study aimed to(1)map the temporal trajectory of QoL among Chinese older adults,(2)examine differential effects of tripartite negative emotions(stress,anxiety,depression),and(3)test themoderating role of control strategies(goal engagement,goal disengagement,self-protection)in emotion-QoL dynamics.A prospective cohort of 345 community-dwelling older adults(Mage=83.84±8.49 years;55.1%female)completed validated measures-SF-36 for QoL,DASS-21 for negative emotions,and an adapted Control Strategies Questionnaire(CAS)-at three waves spanning 12 months.Hierarchical linear modeling(HLM)with time-nested structure analyzed intraindividual changes and interindividual differences.QoL exhibited a significant linear decline over time(β=−4.75,p<0.001).Stress(β=−14.12,p<0.001)and anxiety(β=−11.24,p<0.001)robustly predicted QoL decline,whereas depression showed no significant effect.Control strategies had divergent associations:goal engagement(β=3.51,p<0.001)and self-protection(β=2.38,p=0.015)predicted higher baseline QoL,while goal disengagement accelerated decline(β=−7.00,p<0.001;interaction with time:β=−2.46,p<0.001).Contrary to hypotheses,control strategies did not moderate emotion-QoL associations(ΔR2=0.02,p=0.21).The results showed that stress and anxiety played an important role in the QoL of the elderly.At the same time,goal engagement and self-protection were beneficial to the QoL of the elderly,while goal disengagement was not conducive to QoL and its development among the elderly.Meanwhile,the negative effect of anxiety and stress on the QoL of the elderly was not affected by the control strategies.
文摘Doline susceptibility mapping(DSM)in karst aquifer is important in terms of estimating the vulnerability of the aquifer to pollutants,estimating the infiltration rate,and infrastructures exposed to the development of dolines.In this research,doline susceptibility map was prepared in Saldaran mountain by generalized linear model(GLM)using 14 affecting parameters extracted from satellite images,digital elevation model,and geology map.Only 8 parameters have been inputted to the model which had correlation with dolines.In this regards,306 dolines were identified by the photogrammetric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAV)method in 600 hectares of Salderan lands and then,these data were divided into the training(70%)and testing(30%)data for modelling.The results of DSM modeling showed that classified probability of doline occurrences in the Saldaran mountain were as follow:16.5%of the area high to very high,72%in the class of low to very low,and 5%in the moderate class.Also,locally,in Saldaran mountain,the Pirghar aquifer has the highest potential for the doline development,followed by Bagh Rostam and Sarab aquifers.Also,the precipitation,digital elevation model,Topographic Position Index,drainage density,slope,TRASP(transformed the circular aspect to a radiation index),Snow-Covered Days and vegetation cover index are of highest importance in the DSM modeling,respectively.Accurate evaluation of the model using the Receiver Operating Characteristics(ROC)curve represents a very good accuracy(AUC=0.953)of the DSM model.
