The paper considers a multivariate partially linear model under independent errors,and investigates the asymptotic bias and variance-covariance for parametric component βand nonparametric component F（·）by the ...The paper considers a multivariate partially linear model under independent errors,and investigates the asymptotic bias and variance-covariance for parametric component βand nonparametric component F（·）by the GJS estimator and Kernel estimation.展开更多
In this paper, we consider the variable selection for the parametric components of varying coefficient partially linear models with censored data. By constructing a penalized auxiliary vector ingeniously, we propose a...In this paper, we consider the variable selection for the parametric components of varying coefficient partially linear models with censored data. By constructing a penalized auxiliary vector ingeniously, we propose an empirical likelihood based variable selection procedure, and show that it is consistent and satisfies the sparsity. The simulation studies show that the proposed variable selection method is workable.展开更多
Variable selection plays an important role in high-dimensional data analysis.But the high-dimensional data often induces the strongly correlated variables problem,which should be properly handled.In this paper,we prop...Variable selection plays an important role in high-dimensional data analysis.But the high-dimensional data often induces the strongly correlated variables problem,which should be properly handled.In this paper,we propose Elastic Net procedure for partially linear models and prove the group effect of its estimate.A simulation study shows that the Elastic Net procedure deals with the strongly correlated variables problem better than the Lasso,ALasso and the Ridge do.Based on the real world data study,we can get that the Elastic Net procedure is particularly useful when the number of predictors pffis much bigger than the sample size n.展开更多
An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical...An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical log-likelihood function with asymptotic X^2 is derived. The confidence regions for the coefficients are constructed. Some simulation results indicate that the method performs better than the normal approximation method in term of coverage accuracies.展开更多
The paper presents a two-stage method for estimating the parameters in the censored linear model Y-i = max(0, alpha(o) + X-i'beta(o)), 1 less than or equal to i less than or equal to n. In the first stage the data...The paper presents a two-stage method for estimating the parameters in the censored linear model Y-i = max(0, alpha(o) + X-i'beta(o)), 1 less than or equal to i less than or equal to n. In the first stage the data are grouped in some groups and then some adjustments are made, the results are used in the latter stage to form a Tobin-type estimate. The asymptotic normality of the estimate is proved and some simulations are made.展开更多
The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical...The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.展开更多
In this paper,the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors.It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to ...In this paper,the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors.It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to deal with dependent samples.展开更多
Consider the semiparametric varying-coefficient heteroscedastic partially linear model Yi = X^T i β＋ Z^T iα（Ti） ＋ σiei, 1 ≤ i≤ n, where σ ^2i= f（Ui）, β is a p × 1 column vector of unknown parameter, ...Consider the semiparametric varying-coefficient heteroscedastic partially linear model Yi = X^T i β＋ Z^T iα（Ti） ＋ σiei, 1 ≤ i≤ n, where σ ^2i= f（Ui）, β is a p × 1 column vector of unknown parameter, （Xi, Zi, Ti, Ui） are random design q-dimensional vector of unknown functions, el points, Yi are the response variables, α（-） is a are random errors. For both cases that f（.） is known and unknown, we propose the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistics for the parameter f（.）. For each case, a nonparametric version of Wilks＇ theorem is derived. The results are then used to construct confidence regions of the parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the empirical likelihood method.展开更多
This article is concerned with the estimating problem of semiparametric varyingcoefficient partially linear regression models. By combining the local polynomial and least squares procedures Fan and Huang （2005） prop...This article is concerned with the estimating problem of semiparametric varyingcoefficient partially linear regression models. By combining the local polynomial and least squares procedures Fan and Huang （2005） proposed a profile least squares estimator for the parametric component and established its asymptotic normality. We further show that the profile least squares estimator can achieve the law of iterated logarithm. Moreover, we study the estimators of the functions characterizing the non-linear part as well as the error variance. The strong convergence rate and the law of iterated logarithm are derived for them, respectively.展开更多
The present paper daisses the relative efficiencies of the least square estimates in linear models. For Gauss-Markoff model: Y=Xe + e E(e)= 0, Cov(e)=V, an new efficiencyo f least square estimate for linearly estimabl...The present paper daisses the relative efficiencies of the least square estimates in linear models. For Gauss-Markoff model: Y=Xe + e E(e)= 0, Cov(e)=V, an new efficiencyo f least square estimate for linearly estimable function c'r is proposed and its lower bound is giv-en. For variance component model: Y=X + e, E(e)=0, Cov(e)=, an new efficiency of least square estimate for linearly estimable function C'r is introduced for the first timeand its lower bound, which is independent of unknown parameters, is also obtained.展开更多
This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model ca...This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.展开更多
We study the quasi likelihood equation in Generalized Linear Models（GLM） with adaptive design ∑（i=1）^n xi（yi-h（x＇iβ））=0, where yi is a q=vector, and xi is a p×q random matrix. Under some assumptions, i...We study the quasi likelihood equation in Generalized Linear Models（GLM） with adaptive design ∑（i=1）^n xi（yi-h（x＇iβ））=0, where yi is a q=vector, and xi is a p×q random matrix. Under some assumptions, it is shown that the Quasi- Likelihood equation for the GLM has a solution which is asymptotic normal.展开更多
This article concerded with a semiparametric generalized partial linear model （GPLM） with the type Ⅱ censored data. A sieve maximum likelihood estimator （MLE） is proposed to estimate the parameter component, allo...This article concerded with a semiparametric generalized partial linear model （GPLM） with the type Ⅱ censored data. A sieve maximum likelihood estimator （MLE） is proposed to estimate the parameter component, allowing exploration of the nonlinear relationship between a certain covariate and the response function. Asymptotic properties of the proposed sieve MLEs are discussed. Under some mild conditions, the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent. Moreover, the estimators of the unknown parameters are asymptotically normal and efficient, and the estimator of the nonparametric function has an optimal convergence rate.展开更多
We propose the test statistic to check whether the nonpararnetric functions in two partially linear models are equality or not in this paper. We estimate the nonparametric function both in null hypothesis and the alte...We propose the test statistic to check whether the nonpararnetric functions in two partially linear models are equality or not in this paper. We estimate the nonparametric function both in null hypothesis and the alternative by the local linear method, where we ignore the parametric components, and then estimate the parameters by the two stage method. The test statistic is derived, and it is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis.展开更多
Regression models are often transformed into certain alternative forms in statistical inference theory.In this paper,we assume that a general linear model(GLM)is transformed into two diferent forms,and our aim is to s...Regression models are often transformed into certain alternative forms in statistical inference theory.In this paper,we assume that a general linear model(GLM)is transformed into two diferent forms,and our aim is to study some comparison problems under the two transformed general linear models(TGLMs).We frst construct a general vector composed of all unknown parameters under the two diferent TGLMs,derive exact expressions of best linear minimum bias predictors(BLMBPs)by solving a constrained quadratic matrix-valued function optimization problem in the L¨owner partial ordering,and describe a variety of mathematical and statistical properties and performances of the BLMBPs.We then approach some algebraic characterization problems concerning relationships between the BLMBPs under two diferent TGLMs.As applications,two specifc cases are presented to illustrate the main contributions in the study.展开更多
The generalized additive partial linear models(GAPLM)have been widely used for flexiblemodeling of various types of response.In practice,missing data usually occurs in studies of economics,medicine,and public health.W...The generalized additive partial linear models(GAPLM)have been widely used for flexiblemodeling of various types of response.In practice,missing data usually occurs in studies of economics,medicine,and public health.We address the problem of identifying and estimating GAPLM when the response variable is nonignorably missing.Three types of monotone missing data mechanism are assumed,including logistic model,probit model and complementary log-log model.In this situation,likelihood based on observed data may not be identifiable.In this article,we show that the parameters of interest are identifiable under very mild conditions,and then construct the estimators of the unknown parameters and unknown functions based on a likelihood-based approach by expanding the unknown functions as a linear combination of polynomial spline functions.We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components.Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed inference procedure performs well in many settings.We apply the proposed method to the household income dataset from the Chinese Household Income Project Survey 2013.展开更多
For the functional partially linear models including flexible nonparametric part and functional linear part,the estimators of the nonlinear function and the slope function have been studied in existing literature.How ...For the functional partially linear models including flexible nonparametric part and functional linear part,the estimators of the nonlinear function and the slope function have been studied in existing literature.How to test the correlation between response and explanatory variables,however,still seems to be missing.Therefore,a test procedure for testing the linearity in the functional partially linear models will be proposed in this paper.A test statistic is constructed based on the existing estimators of the nonlinear and the slope functions.Further,we prove that the approximately asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is a chi-squared distribution under some regularity conditions.Finally,some simulation studies and a real data application are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed test statistic.展开更多
Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,...Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.展开更多
Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate ...Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate for actual situations.Although soil exhibits material nonlinearity under earthquake excitation,existing research on the TI medium is limited to soil linearity and neglects the nonlinear response of TI sites.A 2D equivalent linear model for a layered TI half-space subjected to seismic waves is derived in the transformed wave number domain using the exact dynamic stiffness matrix of the TI medium.This study introduces a method for determining the effective shear strain of TI sites under oblique wave incidence,and further describes a systematic study on the effects of TI parameters and soil nonlinearity on site responses.Numerical results indicate that seismic responses of the TI medium significantly differ from those of isotropic sites and that the responses are highly dependent on TI parameters,particularly in nonlinear cases,while also being sensitive to incident angle and excitation intensity.Moreover,the differences in peak acceleration and waveform for various TI materials may also be amplified due to the strong nonlinearity.The study provides valuable insights for improving the accuracy of seismic response analysis in engineering applications.展开更多
The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
基金Supported by the Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation（11040606M04） Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China（10871001,10971097）
文摘The paper considers a multivariate partially linear model under independent errors,and investigates the asymptotic bias and variance-covariance for parametric component βand nonparametric component F（·）by the GJS estimator and Kernel estimation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.1110111911126332)+2 种基金the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11CTJ004)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi Province(Grant No.2010GXNSFB013051)the Philosophy and Social Sciences Foundation of Guangxi Province(Grant No.11FTJ002)
文摘In this paper, we consider the variable selection for the parametric components of varying coefficient partially linear models with censored data. By constructing a penalized auxiliary vector ingeniously, we propose an empirical likelihood based variable selection procedure, and show that it is consistent and satisfies the sparsity. The simulation studies show that the proposed variable selection method is workable.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71462002)the Project for Teaching Reform of Guangxi(GXZZJG2017B084)the Project for Fostering Distinguished Youth Scholars of Guangxi(2020KY50012)。
文摘Variable selection plays an important role in high-dimensional data analysis.But the high-dimensional data often induces the strongly correlated variables problem,which should be properly handled.In this paper,we propose Elastic Net procedure for partially linear models and prove the group effect of its estimate.A simulation study shows that the Elastic Net procedure deals with the strongly correlated variables problem better than the Lasso,ALasso and the Ridge do.Based on the real world data study,we can get that the Elastic Net procedure is particularly useful when the number of predictors pffis much bigger than the sample size n.
文摘An empirical likelihood approach to estimate the coefficients in linear model with interval censored responses is developed in this paper. By constructing unbiased transformation of interval censored data,an empirical log-likelihood function with asymptotic X^2 is derived. The confidence regions for the coefficients are constructed. Some simulation results indicate that the method performs better than the normal approximation method in term of coverage accuracies.
文摘The paper presents a two-stage method for estimating the parameters in the censored linear model Y-i = max(0, alpha(o) + X-i'beta(o)), 1 less than or equal to i less than or equal to n. In the first stage the data are grouped in some groups and then some adjustments are made, the results are used in the latter stage to form a Tobin-type estimate. The asymptotic normality of the estimate is proved and some simulations are made.
文摘The 3-hour-interval prediction of ground-level temperature from +00 h out to +45 h in South Korea (38 stations) is performed using the DLM (dynamic linear model) in order to eliminate the systematic error of numerical model forecasts. Numerical model forecasts and observations are used as input values of the DLM. According to the comparison of the DLM forecasts to the KFM (Kalman filter model) forecasts with RMSE and bias, the DLM is useful to improve the accuracy of prediction.
文摘In this paper,the empirical likelihood confidence regions for the regression coefficient in a linear model are constructed under m-dependent errors.It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood is a good way to deal with dependent samples.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71171003)Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Provincial Colleges (Grant No. KJ2011A032)+3 种基金Anhui Polytechnic University Foundation for Recruiting Talent (Grant Nos. 2011YQQ0042009YQQ005)Young Teachers Science Research Foundation of Anhui Polytechnic University (Grant No. 2009YQ035)Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation
文摘Consider the semiparametric varying-coefficient heteroscedastic partially linear model Yi = X^T i β＋ Z^T iα（Ti） ＋ σiei, 1 ≤ i≤ n, where σ ^2i= f（Ui）, β is a p × 1 column vector of unknown parameter, （Xi, Zi, Ti, Ui） are random design q-dimensional vector of unknown functions, el points, Yi are the response variables, α（-） is a are random errors. For both cases that f（.） is known and unknown, we propose the empirical log-likelihood ratio statistics for the parameter f（.）. For each case, a nonparametric version of Wilks＇ theorem is derived. The results are then used to construct confidence regions of the parameter. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of the empirical likelihood method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Funds for Distinguished Young Scholar (70825004)National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (10731010 and 10628104)+3 种基金the National Basic Research Program (2007CB814902)Creative Research Groups of China (10721101)Leading Academic Discipline Program, the 10th five year plan of 211 Project for Shanghai University of Finance and Economics211 Project for Shanghai University of Financeand Economics (the 3rd phase)
文摘This article is concerned with the estimating problem of semiparametric varyingcoefficient partially linear regression models. By combining the local polynomial and least squares procedures Fan and Huang （2005） proposed a profile least squares estimator for the parametric component and established its asymptotic normality. We further show that the profile least squares estimator can achieve the law of iterated logarithm. Moreover, we study the estimators of the functions characterizing the non-linear part as well as the error variance. The strong convergence rate and the law of iterated logarithm are derived for them, respectively.
文摘The present paper daisses the relative efficiencies of the least square estimates in linear models. For Gauss-Markoff model: Y=Xe + e E(e)= 0, Cov(e)=V, an new efficiencyo f least square estimate for linearly estimable function c'r is proposed and its lower bound is giv-en. For variance component model: Y=X + e, E(e)=0, Cov(e)=, an new efficiency of least square estimate for linearly estimable function C'r is introduced for the first timeand its lower bound, which is independent of unknown parameters, is also obtained.
基金the project"A study on improving forecast skill using a su-percomputer"of Meteorological Research Institute,KMA,2001.
文摘This paper presents a study on the statistical forecasts of typhoon tracks. Numerical models have their own systematic errors, like a bias. In order to improve the accuracy of track forecasting, a statistical model called DLM (dynamic linear model) is applied to remove the systematic error. In the analysis of typhoons occurring over the western North Pacific in 1997 and 2000, DLM is useful as an adaptive model for the prediction of typhoon tracks.
文摘We study the quasi likelihood equation in Generalized Linear Models（GLM） with adaptive design ∑（i=1）^n xi（yi-h（x＇iβ））=0, where yi is a q=vector, and xi is a p×q random matrix. Under some assumptions, it is shown that the Quasi- Likelihood equation for the GLM has a solution which is asymptotic normal.
基金The talent research fund launched (3004-893325) of Dalian University of Technologythe NNSF (10271049) of China.
文摘This article concerded with a semiparametric generalized partial linear model （GPLM） with the type Ⅱ censored data. A sieve maximum likelihood estimator （MLE） is proposed to estimate the parameter component, allowing exploration of the nonlinear relationship between a certain covariate and the response function. Asymptotic properties of the proposed sieve MLEs are discussed. Under some mild conditions, the estimators are shown to be strongly consistent. Moreover, the estimators of the unknown parameters are asymptotically normal and efficient, and the estimator of the nonparametric function has an optimal convergence rate.
文摘We propose the test statistic to check whether the nonpararnetric functions in two partially linear models are equality or not in this paper. We estimate the nonparametric function both in null hypothesis and the alternative by the local linear method, where we ignore the parametric components, and then estimate the parameters by the two stage method. The test statistic is derived, and it is shown to be asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis.
文摘Regression models are often transformed into certain alternative forms in statistical inference theory.In this paper,we assume that a general linear model(GLM)is transformed into two diferent forms,and our aim is to study some comparison problems under the two transformed general linear models(TGLMs).We frst construct a general vector composed of all unknown parameters under the two diferent TGLMs,derive exact expressions of best linear minimum bias predictors(BLMBPs)by solving a constrained quadratic matrix-valued function optimization problem in the L¨owner partial ordering,and describe a variety of mathematical and statistical properties and performances of the BLMBPs.We then approach some algebraic characterization problems concerning relationships between the BLMBPs under two diferent TGLMs.As applications,two specifc cases are presented to illustrate the main contributions in the study.
文摘The generalized additive partial linear models(GAPLM)have been widely used for flexiblemodeling of various types of response.In practice,missing data usually occurs in studies of economics,medicine,and public health.We address the problem of identifying and estimating GAPLM when the response variable is nonignorably missing.Three types of monotone missing data mechanism are assumed,including logistic model,probit model and complementary log-log model.In this situation,likelihood based on observed data may not be identifiable.In this article,we show that the parameters of interest are identifiable under very mild conditions,and then construct the estimators of the unknown parameters and unknown functions based on a likelihood-based approach by expanding the unknown functions as a linear combination of polynomial spline functions.We establish asymptotic normality for the estimators of the parametric components.Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed inference procedure performs well in many settings.We apply the proposed method to the household income dataset from the Chinese Household Income Project Survey 2013.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12271370)。
文摘For the functional partially linear models including flexible nonparametric part and functional linear part,the estimators of the nonlinear function and the slope function have been studied in existing literature.How to test the correlation between response and explanatory variables,however,still seems to be missing.Therefore,a test procedure for testing the linearity in the functional partially linear models will be proposed in this paper.A test statistic is constructed based on the existing estimators of the nonlinear and the slope functions.Further,we prove that the approximately asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is a chi-squared distribution under some regularity conditions.Finally,some simulation studies and a real data application are presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed test statistic.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42261008,41971034)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province,China(22JR5RA074).
文摘Stable water isotopes are natural tracers quantifying the contribution of moisture recycling to local precipitation,i.e.,the moisture recycling ratio,but various isotope-based models usually lead to different results,which affects the accuracy of local moisture recycling.In this study,a total of 18 stations from four typical areas in China were selected to compare the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models and to determine local moisture recycling ratio.Among the three vapor sources including advection,transpiration,and surface evaporation,the advection vapor usually played a dominant role,and the contribution of surface evaporation was less than that of transpiration.When the abnormal values were ignored,the arithmetic averages of differences between isotope-based linear and the Bayesian mixing models were 0.9%for transpiration,0.2%for surface evaporation,and–1.1%for advection,respectively,and the medians were 0.5%,0.2%,and–0.8%,respectively.The importance of transpiration was slightly less for most cases when the Bayesian mixing model was applied,and the contribution of advection was relatively larger.The Bayesian mixing model was found to perform better in determining an efficient solution since linear model sometimes resulted in negative contribution ratios.Sensitivity test with two isotope scenarios indicated that the Bayesian model had a relatively low sensitivity to the changes in isotope input,and it was important to accurately estimate the isotopes in precipitation vapor.Generally,the Bayesian mixing model should be recommended instead of a linear model.The findings are useful for understanding the performance of isotope-based linear and Bayesian mixing models under various climate backgrounds.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.U2139208。
文摘Natural soil generally exhibits significant transverse isotropy(TI)due to weathering and sedimentation,meaning that horizontal moduli differ from their vertical counterpart.The TI mechanical model is more appropriate for actual situations.Although soil exhibits material nonlinearity under earthquake excitation,existing research on the TI medium is limited to soil linearity and neglects the nonlinear response of TI sites.A 2D equivalent linear model for a layered TI half-space subjected to seismic waves is derived in the transformed wave number domain using the exact dynamic stiffness matrix of the TI medium.This study introduces a method for determining the effective shear strain of TI sites under oblique wave incidence,and further describes a systematic study on the effects of TI parameters and soil nonlinearity on site responses.Numerical results indicate that seismic responses of the TI medium significantly differ from those of isotropic sites and that the responses are highly dependent on TI parameters,particularly in nonlinear cases,while also being sensitive to incident angle and excitation intensity.Moreover,the differences in peak acceleration and waveform for various TI materials may also be amplified due to the strong nonlinearity.The study provides valuable insights for improving the accuracy of seismic response analysis in engineering applications.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
