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Effects of spatial heterogeneity on pseudo-static stability of coal mine overburden dump slope,using random limit equilibrium and random finite element methods:A comparative study
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作者 Madhumita Mohanty Rajib Sarkar Sarat Kumar Das 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 2025年第1期83-99,共17页
Sudden and unforeseen seismic failures of coal mine overburden(OB)dump slopes interrupt mining operations,cause loss of lives and delay the production of coal.Consideration of the spatial heterogeneity of OB dump mate... Sudden and unforeseen seismic failures of coal mine overburden(OB)dump slopes interrupt mining operations,cause loss of lives and delay the production of coal.Consideration of the spatial heterogeneity of OB dump materials is imperative for an adequate evaluation of the seismic stability of OB dump slopes.In this study,pseudo-static seismic stability analyses are carried out for an OB dump slope by considering the material parameters obtained from an insitu field investigation.Spatial heterogeneity is simulated through use of the random finite element method(RFEM)and the random limit equilibrium method(RLEM)and a comparative study is presented.Combinations of horizontal and vertical spatial correlation lengths were considered for simulating isotropic and anisotropic random fields within the OB dump slope.Seismic performances of the slope have been reported through the probability of failure and reliability index.It was observed that the RLEM approach overestimates failure probability(P_(f))by considering seismic stability with spatial heterogeneity.The P_(f)was observed to increase with an increase in the coefficient of variation of friction angle of the dump materials.Further,it was inferred that the RLEM approach may not be adequately applicable for assessing the seismic stability of an OB dump slope for a horizontal seismic coefficient that is more than or equal to 0.1. 展开更多
关键词 coal mine overburden dump slope random limit equilibrium method random finite element method seismic slope stability spatial heterogeneity
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An improved limit equilibrium method for rock slope stability analysis under stress-based calculation mode for slip surface
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作者 DENG Dong-ping ZHANG Dian +1 位作者 PENG Yi-hang CHEN Hao-yu 《Journal of Central South University》 2025年第1期262-287,共26页
This study proposes an alternative calculation mode for stresses on the slip surface(SS).The calculation of the normal stress(NS)on the SS involves examining its composition and expanding its unknown using the Taylor ... This study proposes an alternative calculation mode for stresses on the slip surface(SS).The calculation of the normal stress(NS)on the SS involves examining its composition and expanding its unknown using the Taylor series.This expansion enables the reasonable construction of a function describing the NS on the SS.Additionally,by directly incorporating the nonlinear Generalized Hoke-Brown(GHB)strength criterion and utilizing the slope factor of safety(FOS)definition,a function of the shear stress on the SS is derived.This function considers the mutual feedback mechanism between the NS and strength parameters of the SS.The stress constraints conditions are then introduced at both ends of the SS based on the spatial stress relation of one point.Determining the slope FOS and stress solution for the SS involves considering the mechanical equilibrium conditions and the stress constraint conditions satisfied by the sliding body.The proposed approach successfully simulates the tension-shear stress zone near the slope top and provides an intuitive description of the concentration effect of compression-shear stress of the SS near the slope toe.Furthermore,compared to other methods,the present method demonstrates superior processing capabilities for the embedded nonlinear GHB strength criterion. 展开更多
关键词 stability of rock slope nonlinear GHB strength criterion limit equilibrium method stress function on slip surface stress constraint conditions at both ends of slip surface
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Methodology Validation of Microbial Limit Test of Bupi Qiangli Ointment
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作者 李江萍 杨亮 蒋玲 《Agricultural Science & Technology》 CAS 2017年第2期365-367,共3页
[Objective] This study was conducted to establish a microbial limit test method for Bupi Qiangli Ointment. [Method] The conventional method and medium dilution method were used for bacterial, mold and yeast counting i... [Objective] This study was conducted to establish a microbial limit test method for Bupi Qiangli Ointment. [Method] The conventional method and medium dilution method were used for bacterial, mold and yeast counting in sample recovery test. [Result] The medium dilution method (1:10 test solution, 0.5 ml/plate) could effectively eliminate the inhibition effect of the Bupi Qiangli Ointment, and the recovery of Staphylococcus aureus was greater than 70% in the 3 batches of samples; and the conventional method exhibited the recoveries of E. coil, Bacillus subtilis, Candida albicans and Aspergillus greater than 70% in the 3 batches of samples. [Conclusion] Due to Bupi Qiangli Ointment has strongly antibacterial effect on Staphylococcus au- reus, the medium dilution method was used for bacterial counting, and the conventional method was used for mold and yeast counting; and the conventional method was used for controlled bacterium examination of E. coll. 展开更多
关键词 Bupi Qiangli Ointment Microbial limit tests method validation Medium dilution method
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LIMITED MEMORY BFGS METHOD BY USING LINEAR INDEPENDENT SEARCH DIRECTIONS
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作者 倪勤 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI 2001年第2期236-239,共4页
The degree of numerical linear independence is proposed and discussed. Based on this linear independence theory, a modified limited memory BFGS method is deve loped. Similar to the standard limited memory method, thi... The degree of numerical linear independence is proposed and discussed. Based on this linear independence theory, a modified limited memory BFGS method is deve loped. Similar to the standard limited memory method, this new method determines the new update by applying the updating formula m times to an initial positive diagonal matrix using the m previous pairs of the change in iteration and gradient. Besides the most recent pair of the change, which guarantees the quadratic termination, the choice of the other ( m -1) pairs of the change in the new method is dependent on the degree of numerical linear independence of previous search directions. In addition, the numerical linear independence theory is further discussed and the computation of the degree of linear independence is simplified. Theoretical and numerical results show that this new modified method improves efficiently the standard limited memory method. 展开更多
关键词 unconstrained optimization limited memory method BFGS method degree of linear independence
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ELASTIC MODULUS REDUCTION METHOD FOR LIMIT LOAD EVALUATION OF FRAME STRUCTURES 被引量:20
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作者 Lufeng Yang Bo Yu Yongping Qiao 《Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica》 SCIE EI 2009年第2期109-115,共7页
A new strategy for elastic modulus adjustment is proposed based on the element bearing ratio (EBR),and the elastic modulus reduction method (EMRM) is proposed for limit load evaluation of frame structures. The EBR... A new strategy for elastic modulus adjustment is proposed based on the element bearing ratio (EBR),and the elastic modulus reduction method (EMRM) is proposed for limit load evaluation of frame structures. The EBR is defined employing the generalized yield criterion,and the reference EBR is determined by introducing the extrema and the degree of uniformity of EBR in the structure. The elastic modulus in the element with an EBR greater than the reference one is reduced based on the linear elastic finite element analysis and the equilibrium of strain energy. The lower-bound of limit-loads of frame structures are analyzed and the numerical example demonstrates the flexibility,accuracy and effciency of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 limit load element bearing ratio degree of uniformity elastic modulus reduction method
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Overhanging rock slope by design:An integrated approach using rock mass strength characterisation,large-scale numerical modelling and limit equilibrium methods 被引量:10
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作者 Paul Schlotfeldt Davide Elmo Brad Panton 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 SCIE CSCD 2018年第1期72-90,共19页
Overhanging rock slopes(steeper than 90°) are typically avoided in rock engineering design, particularly where the scale of the slope exceeds the scale of fracturing present in the rock mass. This paper highlight... Overhanging rock slopes(steeper than 90°) are typically avoided in rock engineering design, particularly where the scale of the slope exceeds the scale of fracturing present in the rock mass. This paper highlights an integrated approach of designing overhanging rock slopes where the relative dimensions of the slope exceed the scale of fracturing and the rock mass failure needs to be considered rather than kinematic release of individual blocks. The key to the method is a simplified limit equilibrium(LE) tool that was used for the support design and analysis of a multi-faceted overhanging rock slope. The overhanging slopes required complex geometries with constantly changing orientations. The overhanging rock varied in height from 30 m to 66 m. Geomechanical modelling combined with discrete fracture network(DFN)representation of the rock mass was used to validate the rock mass strength assumptions and the failure mechanism assumed in the LE model. The advantage of the simplified LE method is that buttress and support design iterations(along with sensitivity analysis of design parameters) can be completed for various cross-sections along the proposed overhanging rock sections in an efficient manner, compared to the more time-intensive, sophisticated methods that were used for the initial validation. The method described presents the development of this design tool and assumptions made for a specific overhanging rock slope design. Other locations will have different geological conditions that can control the potential behaviour of rock slopes, however, the approach presented can be applied as a general guiding design principle for overhanging rock cut slope. 展开更多
关键词 Rock slopes Discrete fracture network(DFN) Rock mass strength characterisation Numerical modelling limit equilibrium(LE) methods
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Lateral Bearing Capacity of Modified Suction Caissons Determined by Using the Limit Equilibrium Method 被引量:6
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作者 LI Da-yong MA Shi-li +1 位作者 ZHANG Yu-kun CHEN Fu-quan 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第4期461-466,共6页
The modified suction caisson(MSC) adds a short-skirted structure around the regular suction caissons to increase the lateral bearing capacity and limit the deflection. The MSC is suitable for acting as the offshore wi... The modified suction caisson(MSC) adds a short-skirted structure around the regular suction caissons to increase the lateral bearing capacity and limit the deflection. The MSC is suitable for acting as the offshore wind turbine foundation subjected to larger lateral loads compared with the imposed vertical loads. Determination of the lateral bearing capacity is a key issue for the MSC design. The formula estimating the lateral bearing capacity of the MSC was proposed in terms of the limit equilibrium method and was verified by the test results. Parametric studies on the lateral bearing capacity were also carried out. It was found that the lateral bearing capacity of the MSC increases with the increasing length and radius of the external skirt, and the lateral bearing capacity increases linearly with the increasing coefficient of subgrade reaction. The maximum lateral bearing capacity of the MSC is attained when the ratio of the radii of the internal compartment to the external skirt equals 0.82 and the ratio of the lengths of the external skirt to the internal compartment equals 0.48, provided that the steel usage of the MSC is kept constant. 展开更多
关键词 modified suction caissons(MSCs) lateral bearing capacity limit equilibrium method parametric studies
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A New Curve Fitting Method for Forming Limit Experimental Data 被引量:4
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作者 Jieshi CHEN Xianbin ZHOU 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第4期521-525,共5页
The forming limit curve (FLC) can be obtained by means of curve fitting the limit strain points of different strain paths. The theory of percent regression analysis is applied to the curve fitting of forming limit e... The forming limit curve (FLC) can be obtained by means of curve fitting the limit strain points of different strain paths. The theory of percent regression analysis is applied to the curve fitting of forming limit experimental data.Forecast intervals of FLC percentiles can be calculated. Thus reliability and confidence level can be considered. The theoretical method to get the limits of limit strain points distributing region is presented, and the FLC position can be adjusted according to practical requirement. Method for establishing FLC with high reliability using small samples is presented at the same time. This method can make full use of the current experimental data and the previous data.Compared with the traditional method that can only use current experimental data, fewer specimens are required in the present method to obtain the same precision and the result is more accurate with the same number of specimens. 展开更多
关键词 Forming limit curve Regression analysis Reliability analysis Small samples method
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A LIMITED MEMORY QUASI-NEWTON METHOD FOR LARGE SCALE PROBLEM 被引量:3
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作者 邓卫兵 《Numerical Mathematics A Journal of Chinese Universities(English Series)》 SCIE 1996年第1期71-79,共9页
We study how to use the SR1 update to realize minimization methods for problems where the storage is critical. We give an update formula which generates matrices using information from the last m iterations. The numer... We study how to use the SR1 update to realize minimization methods for problems where the storage is critical. We give an update formula which generates matrices using information from the last m iterations. The numerical tests show that the method is efficent. 展开更多
关键词 LARGE SCALE PROBLEM limitED MEMORY methods SR1 formula.
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A Generalized Limit Equilibrium Method for the Solution of Active Earth Pressure on a Retaining Wall 被引量:11
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作者 OUYANG Chao-jun XU Qiang +2 位作者 HE Si-ming LUO Yu WU Yong 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第6期1018-1027,共10页
In this paper, a generalized limit equilibrium method of solving the active earth pressure problem behind a retaining wall is proposed.Differing from other limit equilibrium methods, an arbitrary slip surface shape wi... In this paper, a generalized limit equilibrium method of solving the active earth pressure problem behind a retaining wall is proposed.Differing from other limit equilibrium methods, an arbitrary slip surface shape without any assumptions of pre-defined shapes is needed in the current framework, which is verified to find the most probable failure slip surface. Based on the current computational framework, numerical comparisons with experiment, discrete element method and other methods are carried out. In addition, the influences of the inclination of the wall, the soil cohesion, the angle of the internal friction of the soil, the slope inclination of the backfill soil on the critical pressure coefficient of the soil, the point of application of the resultant earth pressure and the shape of the slip surface are also carefully investigated. The results demonstrate that limit equilibrium solution from predefined slip plane assumption, including Coulomb solution, is a special case of current computational framework. It is well illustrated that the current method is feasible to evaluate the characteristics of earth pressure problem. 展开更多
关键词 limit equilibrium method Retainingwall Active earth pressure Critical slip surface
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Comprehensive analysis of slope stability and determination of stable slopes in the Chador-Malu iron ore mine using numerical and limit equilibrium methods 被引量:18
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作者 ATAEI M BODAGHABADI S 《Journal of China University of Mining and Technology》 2008年第4期488-493,共6页
One of the critical aspects in mine design is slope stability analysis and the determination of stable slopes. In the Chador- Malu iron ore mine, one of the most important iron ore mines in central Iran, it was consid... One of the critical aspects in mine design is slope stability analysis and the determination of stable slopes. In the Chador- Malu iron ore mine, one of the most important iron ore mines in central Iran, it was considered vital to perform a comprehensive slope stability analysis. At first, we divided the existing rock hosting pit into six zones and a geotechnical map was prepared. Then, the value of MRMR (Mining Rock Mass Rating) was determined for each zone. Owing to the fact that the Chador-Malu iron ore mine is located in a highly tectonic area and the rock mass completely crushed, the Hoek-Brown failure criterion was found suitable to estimate geo-mechanical parameters. After that, the value of cohesion (c) and friction angle (tp) were calculated for different geotechnical zones and relative graphs and equations were derived as a function of slope height. The stability analyses using numerical and limit equilibrium methods showed that some instability problems might occur by increasing the slope height. Therefore, stable slopes for each geotechnical zone and prepared sections were calculated and presented as a function of slope height. 展开更多
关键词 slope stability limit equilibrium method numerical method rock mass classification
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Hermite WENO-based limiters for high order discontinuous Galerkin method on unstructured grids 被引量:4
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作者 Zhen-Hua Jiang Chao Yan +1 位作者 Jian Yu Wu Yuan 《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第2期241-252,共12页
A novel class of weighted essentially nonoscillatory (WENO) schemes based on Hermite polynomi- als, termed as HWENO schemes, is developed and applied as limiters for high order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method o... A novel class of weighted essentially nonoscillatory (WENO) schemes based on Hermite polynomi- als, termed as HWENO schemes, is developed and applied as limiters for high order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method on triangular grids. The developed HWENO methodology utilizes high-order derivative information to keep WENO re- construction stencils in the von Neumann neighborhood. A simple and efficient technique is also proposed to enhance the smoothness of the existing stencils, making higher-order scheme stable and simplifying the reconstruction process at the same time. The resulting HWENO-based limiters are as compact as the underlying DG schemes and therefore easy to implement. Numerical results for a wide range of flow conditions demonstrate that for DG schemes of up to fourth order of accuracy, the designed HWENO limiters can simul- taneously obtain uniform high order accuracy and sharp, es- sentially non-oscillatory shock transition. 展开更多
关键词 Discontinuous Galerkin method limitERS WENO. High order accuracy. Unstructured grids
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A new slope optimization design based on limit curve method 被引量:4
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作者 FANG Hong-wei CHEN Yohchia DENG Xiao-wei 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第7期1856-1862,共7页
A new method is proposed for slope optimization design based on the limit curve method, where the slope is in the limit equilibrium state when the limit slope curve determined by the slip-line field theory and the slo... A new method is proposed for slope optimization design based on the limit curve method, where the slope is in the limit equilibrium state when the limit slope curve determined by the slip-line field theory and the slope intersect at the toe of the slope. Compared with the strength reduction (SR) method, finite element limit analysis method, and the SR method based on Davis algorithm, the new method is suitable for determining the slope stability and limit slope angle (LSA). The optimal slope shape is determined based on a series of slope heights and LSA values, which increases the LSA by 2.45°-11.14° and reduces an invalid overburden amount of rocks by 9.15%, compared with the space mechanics theory. The proposed method gives the objective quantification index of instability criterion, and results in a significant engineering economy. 展开更多
关键词 slope optimization design limit state limit curve method limit slope angle
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Block Limit Analysis Method for Stability of Slopes During Earthquakes 被引量:2
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作者 YIN Xiaojun WANG Lanmin 《Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong university(Science)》 EI 2018年第6期764-769,共6页
Based on the limit analysis upper bound method, a new mechanism of soil slope failure has been proposed which was consisted of plastic shear zone and rigid block zone. The different zones interface were regarded as di... Based on the limit analysis upper bound method, a new mechanism of soil slope failure has been proposed which was consisted of plastic shear zone and rigid block zone. The different zones interface were regarded as discontinuity lines. Two sliding blocks of the slope were also incorporated horizontal seismic force and vertical gravity force. The velocities and forces were analyzed in two blocks, and the expression of velocity discontinuities was derived according to the principle of incompressibility. The external force done work for the blocks and the internal energy dissipated of the plastic shear zone and the velocity discontinuous were solved.The stability ratios were derived for the height of two-level slope with different rates to involve seismic and no seismic. The present stability ratios were compared to the previous study, which showed the superiority of the mechanism and the rationality of the analysis. The critical height of the slope can provide a theoretical basis for slope support and design. 展开更多
关键词 soil SLOPE stability ratio EARTHQUAKE BLOCK limit analysis method
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The height-width ratio limited value for rubber bearing isolated structure computed by uniform design method 被引量:7
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作者 王铁英 王焕定 +1 位作者 张永山 刘文光 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2007年第1期36-40,共5页
Rubber isolation is the most mature control technology in practical application, and is widely used by short rigid buildings. However, many high isolation buildings have been built around the world in recent years, wh... Rubber isolation is the most mature control technology in practical application, and is widely used by short rigid buildings. However, many high isolation buildings have been built around the world in recent years, which do not follow the existing criterions and codes. Many researchers began to research the special problems caused by larger height-width ratio isolation structures. The overturning effect of high height-width ratio structures with rubber bearing is firstly studied. Considering the main factors, such as the height-width ratio of structures, type of site, the designed basic acceleration of ground motion and the decouple factor in horizon, computing experiment is defined with the Uniform Design Method, which is also known as designing isolation structure. The forces of the bearing under edge of structures based on the position of the rubber bearing are calculated. The result indicates that the rubber bearings will lose its functionality under very high tension and compressing force of earthquake motion in horizon and vertical, when the height-width ratio is over a certain value. Thus, based on the calculation result of isolation structures defined in the uniform design method, regression analysis is conducted, and also the rubber edge force regression formula are gotten, which has higher correlation and smaller standard deviation. This formula can be used to roughly calculate whether the pull force occurs at the edge of the building. By the edge bearings of isolation structure minimum force formula, the height-width ratio limited value of the isolation structure is deducted when rubber bearing has minimum force of zero. 展开更多
关键词 isolation structures the uniform design method regression analysis height-width ratio limited value
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A Method Combining Numerical Analysis and Limit Equilibrium Theory to Determine Potential Slip Surfaces in Soil Slopes 被引量:6
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作者 XIAO Shiguo YAN Liping CHENG Zhiqiang 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2011年第5期718-727,共10页
This paper describes a precise method combining numerical analysis and limit equilibrium theory to determine potential slip surfaces in soil slopes. In this method, the direction of the critical slip surface at any po... This paper describes a precise method combining numerical analysis and limit equilibrium theory to determine potential slip surfaces in soil slopes. In this method, the direction of the critical slip surface at any point in a slope is determined using the Coulomb’s strength principle and the extremum principle based on the ratio of the shear strength to the shear stress at that point. The ratio, which is considered as an analysis index, can be computed once the stress field of the soil slope is obtained. The critical slip direction at any point in the slope must be the tangential direction of a potential slip surface passing through the point. Therefore, starting from a point on the top of the slope surface or on the horizontal segment outside the slope toe, the increment with a small distance into the slope is used to choose another point and the corresponding slip direction at the point is computed. Connecting all the points used in the computation forms a potential slip surface exiting at the starting point. Then the factor of safety for any potential slip surface can be computed using limit equilibrium method like Spencer method. After factors of safety for all the potential slip surfaces are obtained, the minimum one is the factor of safety for the slope and the corresponding potential slip surface is the critical slip surface of the slope. The proposed method does not need to pre-assume the shape of potential slip surfaces. Thus it is suitable for any shape of slip surfaces. Moreover the method is very simple to be applied. Examples are presented in this paper to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method programmed in ANSYS software by macro commands. 展开更多
关键词 Soil slope Stress field Potential slip surface Slope stability Factor of safety Numerical analysis limit equilibrium method ANSYS software
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Fuzzy norm method for evaluating random vibration of airborne platform from limited PSD data 被引量:7
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作者 Wang Zhongyu Wang Yanqing +1 位作者 Wang Qian Zhang Jianjun 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第6期1442-1450,共9页
For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density(PSD) data can be obtaine... For random vibration of airborne platform, the accurate evaluation is a key indicator to ensure normal operation of airborne equipment in flight. However, only limited power spectral density(PSD) data can be obtained at the stage of flight test. Thus, those conventional evaluation methods cannot be employed when the distribution characteristics and priori information are unknown. In this paper, the fuzzy norm method(FNM) is proposed which combines the advantages of fuzzy theory and norm theory. The proposed method can deeply dig system information from limited data, which probability distribution is not taken into account. Firstly, the FNM is employed to evaluate variable interval and expanded uncertainty from limited PSD data, and the performance of FNM is demonstrated by confidence level, reliability and computing accuracy of expanded uncertainty. In addition, the optimal fuzzy parameters are discussed to meet the requirements of aviation standards and metrological practice. Finally, computer simulation is used to prove the adaptability of FNM. Compared with statistical methods, FNM has superiority for evaluating expanded uncertainty from limited data. The results show that the reliability of calculation and evaluation is superior to 95%. 展开更多
关键词 Expanded uncertainty Fuzzy norm method limited PSD data Random vibration Reliability Variable interval
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DEPENDENCE OF PREDICTION MODEL OF FORMING LIMIT STRAINS ON FORMING METHOD AND MECHANICAL PROPERTIES OF SHEET METALS 被引量:1
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作者 Zhou, Weixian 《中国有色金属学会会刊:英文版》 EI CSCD 1997年第1期52-56,共5页
DEPENDENCEOFPREDICTIONMODELOFFORMINGLIMITSTRAINSONFORMINGMETHODANDMECHANICALPROPERTIESOFSHEETMETALS①ZhouWeix... DEPENDENCEOFPREDICTIONMODELOFFORMINGLIMITSTRAINSONFORMINGMETHODANDMECHANICALPROPERTIESOFSHEETMETALS①ZhouWeixianDepartmentofAe... 展开更多
关键词 FORMING limit STRAINS PREDICTION model FORMING method MECHANICAL PROPERTIES
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Hybrid LEAP modeling method for long-term energy demand forecasting of regions with limited statistical data 被引量:4
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作者 CHEN Rui RAO Zheng-hua LIAO Sheng-ming 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第8期2136-2148,共13页
An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i... An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways. 展开更多
关键词 energy demand forecasting with limited data hybrid LEAP model ARIMA model Leslie matrix Monte-Carlo method
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Hybrid method based on flame volume concept for lean blowout limits prediction of aero engine combustors 被引量:2
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作者 Lei SUN Yong HUANG +3 位作者 Xiwei WANG Zekun ZHENG Ruixiang WANG Xiang FENG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第5期425-437,共13页
The Lean Blowout(LBO)limit is crucial for the aircraft engines.The semi-empirical(such as Lefebvre’s LBO model and Flame Volume(FV)model),numerical and hybrid methods are widely utilized for the LBO limit quick predi... The Lean Blowout(LBO)limit is crucial for the aircraft engines.The semi-empirical(such as Lefebvre’s LBO model and Flame Volume(FV)model),numerical and hybrid methods are widely utilized for the LBO limit quick prediction.An innovative hybrid method based on the FV concept is proposed.This method can be classified as a semi-empirical/physical based hybrid prediction method.In this hybrid method,it is assumed that the flame volume varies nearly linearly with the fuel/air ratio near the LBO.The flame volume is obtained directly by the numerical simulation using the threshold value of the visible flame boundary as 900 K.Then the final LBO limits is determined by the FV model.On the premise of keeping the good generality of prediction,the hybrid method based on the FV concept can further improve the prediction accuracy.The comparison with the prediction of the existing available methods on fifteen combustors shows that the hybrid method based on the FV concept achieves better prediction accuracy.The prediction uncertainties between the experimental results and the predicted values by the hybrid method based on the FV concept are within about±10%. 展开更多
关键词 Aircraft engines Combustors Flame volume Hybrid method Lean blowout limit PREDICTION
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