Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capac...Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40 a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.展开更多
Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtro...Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.展开更多
In this paper,we establish some strong laws of large numbers,which are for nonindependent random variables under the framework of sublinear expectations.One of our main results is for blockwise m-dependent random vari...In this paper,we establish some strong laws of large numbers,which are for nonindependent random variables under the framework of sublinear expectations.One of our main results is for blockwise m-dependent random variables,and another is for sub-orthogonal random variables.Both extend the strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under sublinear expectations to the non-independent case.展开更多
In this paper,we consider the fourth-order parabolic equation with p(x)Laplacian and variable exponent source ut+∆^(2)u−div(|■u|^(p(x)−2■u))=|u|^(q(x))−1u.By applying potential well method,we obtain global existence...In this paper,we consider the fourth-order parabolic equation with p(x)Laplacian and variable exponent source ut+∆^(2)u−div(|■u|^(p(x)−2■u))=|u|^(q(x))−1u.By applying potential well method,we obtain global existence,asymptotic behavior and blow-up of solutions with initial energy J(u_(0))≤d.Moreover,we estimate the upper bound of the blow-up time for J(u_(0))≤0.展开更多
Tree growth variability is a key determinant of forest stabilities.Previous studies have shown that recent climate change has increased variability in tree growth,while others have challenged this viewpoint,leading to...Tree growth variability is a key determinant of forest stabilities.Previous studies have shown that recent climate change has increased variability in tree growth,while others have challenged this viewpoint,leading to ongoing debate in this field.Moreover,gaps remain in understanding the climatic mechanisms driving increased tree growth variability,particularly for species simultaneously limited by multiple climate factors.In this study,we assessed the temporal trends in variability of Picea purpurea radial growth and its linkage with growth-climate sensitivity utilizing dendrochronological methods.Our results revealed a significant increase in P.purpurea radial growth variability from 1960 to 2020,as indicated by continuous rises in the standard deviation,coefficient of variation,and mean sensitivity of tree-ring width indices.The increased frequency of extreme growth declines further supported this finding.Furthermore,moisture condition in July was identified as a key limiting factor of P.purpurea growth.Notably,the strengthening relationship between tree-ring width indices and vapor pressure deficit(VPD)suggests that the moisture sensitivity for P.purpurea growth has increased over the period 1960-2020.This enhanced sensitivity to VPD,whose interannual variability has also increased synchronously,may have contributed to the rise in P.purpurea growth variability.Additionally,the maximum temperature in May was positively correlated with P.purpurea growth;however,there is little evidence that this factor contributed to the observed increase in growth variability.These findings provide new insights into P.purpurea growth trends and improve our understanding of the potential future impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.展开更多
As a vital food crop,rice is an important part of global food crops.Studying the spatiotemporal changes in rice cultivation facilitates early prediction of production risks and provides support for agricultural policy...As a vital food crop,rice is an important part of global food crops.Studying the spatiotemporal changes in rice cultivation facilitates early prediction of production risks and provides support for agricultural policy decisions related to rice.With the increasing application of satellite remote sensing technology in crop monitoring,remote sensing for rice cultivation has emerged as a novel approach,offering new perspectives for monitoring rice planting.This paper briefly outlined the current research and development status of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation both at home and abroad.Foreign scholars have made innovations in data sources and methodologies for satellite remote sensing monitoring,and utilized multi-source satellite information and machine learning algorithms to enhance the accuracy of rice planting monitoring.Scholars in China have achieved significant results in the study of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation.Their research and application in monitoring rice planting areas provide valuable references for agricultural production management.However,satellite remote sensing monitoring of rice still faces challenges such as low spatiotemporal resolution and difficulties related to cloud cover and data fusion,which require further in-depth investigation.Additionally,there are shortcomings in the accuracy of remote sensing monitoring for fragmented farmland plots and smallholder farming.To address these issues,future efforts should focus on developing multi-source heterogeneous data fusion analysis technologies and researching monitoring systems.These advancements are expected to enable high-precision large-scale acquisition of rice planting information,laying a foundation for future smart agriculture.展开更多
Thermal-mechanical damage and deformation at the interface between shotcrete linings and the surrounding rock of tunnels under high-temperature and variable-temperature conditions are critical to the safe construction...Thermal-mechanical damage and deformation at the interface between shotcrete linings and the surrounding rock of tunnels under high-temperature and variable-temperature conditions are critical to the safe construction and operation of tunnel engineering.This study investigated the thermo-mechanical damage behavior of the composite interface between alkali-resistant glass fiber-reinforced concrete(ARGFRC)and granite,focusing on a plateau railway tunnel.Laboratory triaxial tests,laser scanning,XRD analysis,numerical simulations,and theoretical analyses were employed to investigate how different initial curing temperatures and joint roughness coefficient(JRC)influence interfacial damage behavior.The results indicate that an increase in interface roughness exacerbates the structural damage at the interface.At a JRC of 19.9 and a temperature of 70℃,crack initiation in granite was notably restrained when the confining pressure rose from 7 MPa to 10 MPa.Roughness-induced stress distribution at the interface was notably altered,although this effect became less pronounced under high confining pressure conditions.Additionally,during high-temperature curing,thermal stress concentration at the tips of micro-convex protrusions on the granite surface induced microcracks in the adjacent ARGFRC matrix,followed by deformation.These findings provide practical guidelines for designing concrete support systems to ensure tunnel structural safety in high-altitude regions with harsh thermal environments.展开更多
Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial fe...Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.展开更多
Sustained and spatially explicit monitoring of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is critical for effectively tracking progress toward the global Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Although la...Sustained and spatially explicit monitoring of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is critical for effectively tracking progress toward the global Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Although land cover information has long been recognized as an essential component for monitoring SDGs,a standardized scientific framework for identifying and prioritizing land cover related essential variables does not exist.Therefore,we propose a novel expert-and data-driven framework for identifying,refining,and selecting a priority list of Essential Land cover-related Variables for SDGs(ELcV4SDGs).This framework integrates methods including expert knowledge-based analysis,clustering of variables with similar attributes,and quantified index calculation to establish the priority list.Applying the framework to 15 specific SDG indicators,we found that the ELcV4SDGs priority list comprises three main categories,type and structure,pattern and intensity,and process and evolution of land cover,which are further divided into 19 subcategories and ultimately encompass 50 general variables.The ELcV4SDGs will support detailed spatial monitoring and enhance their scientific applications for SDG monitoring and assessment,thereby guiding future SDG priority actions and informing decision-making to advance the 2030 SDGs agenda at local,national,and global levels.展开更多
Energy shortage has become one of themost concerning issues in the world today,and improving energy utilization efficiency is a key area of research for experts and scholars worldwide.Small-diameter heat exchangers of...Energy shortage has become one of themost concerning issues in the world today,and improving energy utilization efficiency is a key area of research for experts and scholars worldwide.Small-diameter heat exchangers offer advantages such as reduced material usage,lower refrigerant charge,and compact structure.However,they also face challenges,including increased refrigerant pressure drop and smaller heat transfer area inside the tubes.This paper combines the advantages and disadvantages of both small and large-diameter tubes and proposes a combined-diameter heat exchanger,consisting of large and small diameters,for use in the indoor units of split-type air conditioners.There are relatively few studies in this area.In this paper,A theoretical and numerical computation method is employed to establish a theoretical-numerical calculation model,and its reliability is verified through experiments.Using this model,the optimal combined diameters and flow path design for a combined-diameter heat exchanger using R32 as the working fluid are derived.The results show that the heat transfer performance of all combined diameter configurations improves by 2.79%to 8.26%compared to the baseline design,with the coefficient of performance(COP)increasing from 4.15 to 4.27~4.5.These designs can save copper material,but at the cost of an increase in pressure drop by 66.86%to 131.84%.The scheme IIIH,using R32,is the optimal combined-diameter and flow path configuration that balances both heat transfer performance and economic cost.展开更多
Tuberculosis(TB),one of the oldest infectious diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,poses a considerable challenge to global public health.There are approximately 10 million new TB cases worldwide annually,and...Tuberculosis(TB),one of the oldest infectious diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,poses a considerable challenge to global public health.There are approximately 10 million new TB cases worldwide annually,and TB claims the lives of nearly 3 million people each year,making it one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious disease[1].China ranks third globally in terms of TB burden,with approximately 733,000 TB cases reported in 2023[2].Based on the ecological model of health determinants developed by Whitehead and Dahlgren,health determinants can be classified into direct causes.展开更多
The authors have developed an integral view of the inter-decadal variability of July-August （JA） tropospheric temperature across the entire subtropical Northern Hemisphere. Using reanalysis data and complementary ba...The authors have developed an integral view of the inter-decadal variability of July-August （JA） tropospheric temperature across the entire subtropical Northern Hemisphere. Using reanalysis data and complementary balloon-borne measurements, the authors identify one major mode of variability for the period 1958 2001 which exhibits a significant cooling center over East Asia and warming centers over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The cooling （warming） signals barotropically penetrate through the troposphere, with the strongest anomalies at 200-300 hPa. The amplitude of the cooling over East Asia is stronger than that of the warming over the North Atlantic （North Pacific） by a factor of 2 （3）. This dominant mode exhibits a declining tendency for the entire period examined, particularly before 1980. After the mid-1980s, the tendency has leveled off. Variations of the harmonious change of JA upper tropospheric temperature represented by the principal component of Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis exhibit significant negative （positive） correlations with SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Indian Ocean （mid-latitude North Pacific）. Possible mechanisms are discussed.展开更多
Two inter-decadal shifts in East China summer rainfall during the last three decades of the 20th century have been identified.One shift occurred in the late 1970s and featured more rainfall in the Yangtze River valley...Two inter-decadal shifts in East China summer rainfall during the last three decades of the 20th century have been identified.One shift occurred in the late 1970s and featured more rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and prolonged drought in North China.The other shift occurred in the early 1990s and featured increased rainfall in South China.The role of black carbon(BC) aerosol in the first shift event is controversial,and it has not been documented for the second event.In this study,the authors used Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's(GFDL's) atmospheric general circulation model known as Atmosphere and Land Model(AM2.1) ,which has been shown to capture East Asian climate variability well,to investigate these issues by conducting sensitive experiments with or without historical BC in East Asia. The results suggest that the model reproduces the first shift well,including intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River and weakened monsoonal circulation.However,the model captures only a fraction of the observed variations for the second shift event.Thus,the role of BC in modulating the two shift events is different,and its impact is relatively less important for the early 1990s event.展开更多
The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon,with highting decadal and inter- decadal scales. The studies on the long- term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and ...The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon,with highting decadal and inter- decadal scales. The studies on the long- term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover,recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia(including Meiyu precipitation)are discussed. Finally,the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.展开更多
In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into inter-decadal changes in moisture transport and divergence in East Asia for the two periods 1980-2001 and 1958 1979. The aim is to explore the mechanism...In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into inter-decadal changes in moisture transport and divergence in East Asia for the two periods 1980-2001 and 1958 1979. The aim is to explore the mechanism of summer rainfall change in the region after abrupt changes. The relevant changes are calculated using ERA-40 daily reanalysis datasets. The results show that both stationary and transient eddy moisture transports to the Chinese mainland have declined since the abrupt change in atmospheric general circulation in the late 1970s, leading to more rainfall in South China and less in the North. The anomalous rainfall pattern coincides well with anomalous large-scale moisture divergence in the troposphere, of which stationary-wave or monsoon transport is dominant, in comparison with the contribution of the transient eddies. F^rthermore, their divergences are found to be in opposite phases. In addition, meridional divergence is more important than its zonal counterpart, with an opposite phase in East Asia. Abnormal zonal moisture convergences appear in northwestern and northeastern parts of China, and are related to the excess rainfalls in these regions. An increase in transient eddy activity is one of the major mechanisms for excess rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Consequently, the anomalous rainfall pattern in East Asia results from a decline of the East Asian monsoon after the abrupt change, while the rainfall increase in northwestern China involves anomalies of both stationary waves and transient eddies on boreal westerly over the mid- and high latitudes.展开更多
In this paper,the intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China was defined objectively by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and national precipitation data from 1961 to 2004.In the inter-decadal...In this paper,the intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China was defined objectively by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and national precipitation data from 1961 to 2004.In the inter-decadal time scales,the correlations between sea-level pressure field,850 hPa flow field,500 hPa geopotential height,sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice concentration,a variety of oscillation indexes and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China were analyzed.The analysis showed that the great value area of correlations was consistent between sea-level pressure field,500 hPa geopotential height field and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China in pre-winter or summer,and the correlation was much better in summer than in pre-winter.The correlation was poor between the sea surface temperature and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China,but the correlation was good between the Arctic sea ice concentration and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China.The correlation was better between the NPO index and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China than other indexes.展开更多
The strongest change in Meiyu periods in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLY） since 1885 occurred in the late 1970s： a stage of weak Meiyu from 1958 to 1978 abruptly transformed into a stage of plentiful Meiyu from 19...The strongest change in Meiyu periods in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLY） since 1885 occurred in the late 1970s： a stage of weak Meiyu from 1958 to 1978 abruptly transformed into a stage of plentiful Meiyu from 1979 to 1999. The average Meiyu amount of the latter 21 years increased by 66% compared with that of the former 21 years, accompanied by a significant increase in the occurrence of summer floods in the MLY. This change was closely related with the frequent phenomenon of postponed Meiyu ending dates （MED） and later onset dates of high summer （ODHS） in the MLY. To a considerable degree, this reflects an abrupt change of the summer climate in East China. Further analysis showed that the preceding factors contributing to inter-annual changes in Meiyu in the two 21-year stages delimited above were also very different from each other. The causes of change were associated with the following： China’s industrialization has greatly accelerated since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in atmospheric pollution and a reduction of the solar radiation reaching the ground. The sand area of North China has also expanded due to overgrazing. The enhanced greenhouse effect is manifested in warm winters （especially in February）. Meanwhile, the January precipitation of the MLY has for the most part increased, and El Ni？o events have occurred more frequently since the late 1970s. A correlative scatter diagram consisting of these five factors mentioned above clearly shows that the two stages with opposite Meiyu characteristics are grouped in two contrasting locations with very different environmental （land-atmosphere） conditions. It is quite possible that we are now entering a new stage of lesser Meiyu, beginning in 2000.展开更多
By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are ...By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are as follows. (1) There was great difference on the onset date of the SCS summer monsoon between the first two decades and the last two decades. It was late on the 6th pentad of May for the first two decades and was on the 4th and 5th pentad of May for the next two decades. (2) Except for the third decade (1978-1987), the establishment of the monsoon rainfall was one to two pentads earlier than the onset of the summer monsoon in all other three decades. (3) The onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of the abrupt development and eastward advancement of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. The four-decade analysis shows that there were abrupt development of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal between the 3rd and 4th pentad of May, but there was great difference between its eastward movement and its onset intensity. These may have important effect to the earlier or later onset of the SCS summer monsoon. (4) During the onset of the SCS summer monsoon, there were great difference in the upper and lower circulation feature between the first two and the next two decades. At the lower troposphere of the first two decades, the Indian-Burma trough was stronger and the center of the subtropical high was located more eastward. At the upper troposphere, the northward movement of the center of subtropical high was large and located more northward after it landed on the Indo-China Peninsula. After comparison, we can see that the circulation feature of the last two decades was favorable to the establishment and development of the SCS summer monsoon.展开更多
Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into...Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.展开更多
An internal state variable(ISV)model was established according to the experimental results of hot plane strain compression(PSC)to predict the microstructure evolution during hot spinning of ZK61 alloy.The effects of t...An internal state variable(ISV)model was established according to the experimental results of hot plane strain compression(PSC)to predict the microstructure evolution during hot spinning of ZK61 alloy.The effects of the internal variables were considered in this ISV model,and the parameters were optimized by genetic algorithm.After validation,the ISV model was used to simulate the evolution of grain size(GS)and dynamic recrystallization(DRX)fraction during hot spinning via Abaqus and its subroutine Vumat.By comparing the simulated results with the experimental results,the application of the ISV model was proven to be reliable.Meanwhile,the strength of the thin-walled spun ZK61 tube increased from 303 to 334 MPa due to grain refinement by DRX and texture strengthening.Besides,some ultrafine grains(0.5μm)that played an important role in mechanical properties were formed due to the proliferation,movement,and entanglement of dislocations during the spinning process.展开更多
基金the National Major Basic Research Program of China(2010CB428404)the“Hundred Talents Program”of Chinese Academy of Sciences(for Dong Chen)Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University(2015490711)
文摘Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40 a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program(2012CB955603,2010CB950302)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2010AA012304)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SQ201006 and XDA05090404)
文摘Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.
文摘In this paper,we establish some strong laws of large numbers,which are for nonindependent random variables under the framework of sublinear expectations.One of our main results is for blockwise m-dependent random variables,and another is for sub-orthogonal random variables.Both extend the strong law of large numbers for independent random variables under sublinear expectations to the non-independent case.
基金Supported by NSFC(No.12101482)the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province,China(No.2018JQ1052)。
文摘In this paper,we consider the fourth-order parabolic equation with p(x)Laplacian and variable exponent source ut+∆^(2)u−div(|■u|^(p(x)−2■u))=|u|^(q(x))−1u.By applying potential well method,we obtain global existence,asymptotic behavior and blow-up of solutions with initial energy J(u_(0))≤d.Moreover,we estimate the upper bound of the blow-up time for J(u_(0))≤0.
基金funded by the Science and Technology Program of Gansu Province(25JRRA487)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101072)the Key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(22YF7FA029).
文摘Tree growth variability is a key determinant of forest stabilities.Previous studies have shown that recent climate change has increased variability in tree growth,while others have challenged this viewpoint,leading to ongoing debate in this field.Moreover,gaps remain in understanding the climatic mechanisms driving increased tree growth variability,particularly for species simultaneously limited by multiple climate factors.In this study,we assessed the temporal trends in variability of Picea purpurea radial growth and its linkage with growth-climate sensitivity utilizing dendrochronological methods.Our results revealed a significant increase in P.purpurea radial growth variability from 1960 to 2020,as indicated by continuous rises in the standard deviation,coefficient of variation,and mean sensitivity of tree-ring width indices.The increased frequency of extreme growth declines further supported this finding.Furthermore,moisture condition in July was identified as a key limiting factor of P.purpurea growth.Notably,the strengthening relationship between tree-ring width indices and vapor pressure deficit(VPD)suggests that the moisture sensitivity for P.purpurea growth has increased over the period 1960-2020.This enhanced sensitivity to VPD,whose interannual variability has also increased synchronously,may have contributed to the rise in P.purpurea growth variability.Additionally,the maximum temperature in May was positively correlated with P.purpurea growth;however,there is little evidence that this factor contributed to the observed increase in growth variability.These findings provide new insights into P.purpurea growth trends and improve our understanding of the potential future impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation General Project of Heilongjiang Province(C2018050).
文摘As a vital food crop,rice is an important part of global food crops.Studying the spatiotemporal changes in rice cultivation facilitates early prediction of production risks and provides support for agricultural policy decisions related to rice.With the increasing application of satellite remote sensing technology in crop monitoring,remote sensing for rice cultivation has emerged as a novel approach,offering new perspectives for monitoring rice planting.This paper briefly outlined the current research and development status of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation both at home and abroad.Foreign scholars have made innovations in data sources and methodologies for satellite remote sensing monitoring,and utilized multi-source satellite information and machine learning algorithms to enhance the accuracy of rice planting monitoring.Scholars in China have achieved significant results in the study of satellite remote sensing for monitoring rice cultivation.Their research and application in monitoring rice planting areas provide valuable references for agricultural production management.However,satellite remote sensing monitoring of rice still faces challenges such as low spatiotemporal resolution and difficulties related to cloud cover and data fusion,which require further in-depth investigation.Additionally,there are shortcomings in the accuracy of remote sensing monitoring for fragmented farmland plots and smallholder farming.To address these issues,future efforts should focus on developing multi-source heterogeneous data fusion analysis technologies and researching monitoring systems.These advancements are expected to enable high-precision large-scale acquisition of rice planting information,laying a foundation for future smart agriculture.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52209130 and 52379100)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR2024ME112).
文摘Thermal-mechanical damage and deformation at the interface between shotcrete linings and the surrounding rock of tunnels under high-temperature and variable-temperature conditions are critical to the safe construction and operation of tunnel engineering.This study investigated the thermo-mechanical damage behavior of the composite interface between alkali-resistant glass fiber-reinforced concrete(ARGFRC)and granite,focusing on a plateau railway tunnel.Laboratory triaxial tests,laser scanning,XRD analysis,numerical simulations,and theoretical analyses were employed to investigate how different initial curing temperatures and joint roughness coefficient(JRC)influence interfacial damage behavior.The results indicate that an increase in interface roughness exacerbates the structural damage at the interface.At a JRC of 19.9 and a temperature of 70℃,crack initiation in granite was notably restrained when the confining pressure rose from 7 MPa to 10 MPa.Roughness-induced stress distribution at the interface was notably altered,although this effect became less pronounced under high confining pressure conditions.Additionally,during high-temperature curing,thermal stress concentration at the tips of micro-convex protrusions on the granite surface induced microcracks in the adjacent ARGFRC matrix,followed by deformation.These findings provide practical guidelines for designing concrete support systems to ensure tunnel structural safety in high-altitude regions with harsh thermal environments.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program Project(2023YFC3107804)Planning Fund Project of Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education(24YJA880097)the Graduate Education Reform Project in North China University of Technology(217051360025XN095-17)。
文摘Marine forecasting is critical for navigation safety and disaster prevention.However,traditional ocean numerical forecasting models are often limited by substantial errors and inadequate capture of temporal-spatial features.To address the limitations,the paper proposes a TimeXer-based numerical forecast correction model optimized by an exogenous-variable attention mechanism.The model treats target forecast values as internal variables,and incorporates historical temporal-spatial data and seven-day numerical forecast results from traditional models as external variables based on the embedding strategy of TimeXer.Using a self-attention structure,the model captures correlations between exogenous variables and target sequences,explores intrinsic multi-dimensional relationships,and subsequently corrects endogenous variables with the mined exogenous features.The model’s performance is evaluated using metrics including MSE(Mean Squared Error),MAE(Mean Absolute Error),RMSE(Root Mean Square Error),MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error),MSPE(Mean Square Percentage Error),and computational time,with TimeXer and PatchTST models serving as benchmarks.Experiment results show that the proposed model achieves lower errors and higher correction accuracy for both one-day and seven-day forecasts.
基金supported by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41930650)Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42301310).
文摘Sustained and spatially explicit monitoring of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development is critical for effectively tracking progress toward the global Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).Although land cover information has long been recognized as an essential component for monitoring SDGs,a standardized scientific framework for identifying and prioritizing land cover related essential variables does not exist.Therefore,we propose a novel expert-and data-driven framework for identifying,refining,and selecting a priority list of Essential Land cover-related Variables for SDGs(ELcV4SDGs).This framework integrates methods including expert knowledge-based analysis,clustering of variables with similar attributes,and quantified index calculation to establish the priority list.Applying the framework to 15 specific SDG indicators,we found that the ELcV4SDGs priority list comprises three main categories,type and structure,pattern and intensity,and process and evolution of land cover,which are further divided into 19 subcategories and ultimately encompass 50 general variables.The ELcV4SDGs will support detailed spatial monitoring and enhance their scientific applications for SDG monitoring and assessment,thereby guiding future SDG priority actions and informing decision-making to advance the 2030 SDGs agenda at local,national,and global levels.
基金supported by Supported by the Scientific Research Foundation for High-Level Talents of Zhoukou Normal University(ZKNUC2024018).
文摘Energy shortage has become one of themost concerning issues in the world today,and improving energy utilization efficiency is a key area of research for experts and scholars worldwide.Small-diameter heat exchangers offer advantages such as reduced material usage,lower refrigerant charge,and compact structure.However,they also face challenges,including increased refrigerant pressure drop and smaller heat transfer area inside the tubes.This paper combines the advantages and disadvantages of both small and large-diameter tubes and proposes a combined-diameter heat exchanger,consisting of large and small diameters,for use in the indoor units of split-type air conditioners.There are relatively few studies in this area.In this paper,A theoretical and numerical computation method is employed to establish a theoretical-numerical calculation model,and its reliability is verified through experiments.Using this model,the optimal combined diameters and flow path design for a combined-diameter heat exchanger using R32 as the working fluid are derived.The results show that the heat transfer performance of all combined diameter configurations improves by 2.79%to 8.26%compared to the baseline design,with the coefficient of performance(COP)increasing from 4.15 to 4.27~4.5.These designs can save copper material,but at the cost of an increase in pressure drop by 66.86%to 131.84%.The scheme IIIH,using R32,is the optimal combined-diameter and flow path configuration that balances both heat transfer performance and economic cost.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82574173,82003516)Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Foundation(BK20251958)+2 种基金Jiangsu Provincial Medical Key Discipline(ZDXK202250)Top Talent Awards Project Fund(RDF-TP-0023,RDF-TP-0030)Postgraduate Research Fund(PGRS2112022)at Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.
文摘Tuberculosis(TB),one of the oldest infectious diseases caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,poses a considerable challenge to global public health.There are approximately 10 million new TB cases worldwide annually,and TB claims the lives of nearly 3 million people each year,making it one of the leading causes of death from a single infectious disease[1].China ranks third globally in terms of TB burden,with approximately 733,000 TB cases reported in 2023[2].Based on the ecological model of health determinants developed by Whitehead and Dahlgren,health determinants can be classified into direct causes.
基金supported by the China Meteorological Administration(GYHY200706010,GYHY200806010)the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under Grant Nos2006CB403603 and 2005CB321703the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos40523001,40625014,and 90711004
文摘The authors have developed an integral view of the inter-decadal variability of July-August （JA） tropospheric temperature across the entire subtropical Northern Hemisphere. Using reanalysis data and complementary balloon-borne measurements, the authors identify one major mode of variability for the period 1958 2001 which exhibits a significant cooling center over East Asia and warming centers over the North Atlantic and North Pacific. The cooling （warming） signals barotropically penetrate through the troposphere, with the strongest anomalies at 200-300 hPa. The amplitude of the cooling over East Asia is stronger than that of the warming over the North Atlantic （North Pacific） by a factor of 2 （3）. This dominant mode exhibits a declining tendency for the entire period examined, particularly before 1980. After the mid-1980s, the tendency has leveled off. Variations of the harmonious change of JA upper tropospheric temperature represented by the principal component of Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis exhibit significant negative （positive） correlations with SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Indian Ocean （mid-latitude North Pacific）. Possible mechanisms are discussed.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KZCX2-YW-Q11-03)
文摘Two inter-decadal shifts in East China summer rainfall during the last three decades of the 20th century have been identified.One shift occurred in the late 1970s and featured more rainfall in the Yangtze River valley and prolonged drought in North China.The other shift occurred in the early 1990s and featured increased rainfall in South China.The role of black carbon(BC) aerosol in the first shift event is controversial,and it has not been documented for the second event.In this study,the authors used Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's(GFDL's) atmospheric general circulation model known as Atmosphere and Land Model(AM2.1) ,which has been shown to capture East Asian climate variability well,to investigate these issues by conducting sensitive experiments with or without historical BC in East Asia. The results suggest that the model reproduces the first shift well,including intensified rainfall in the Yangtze River and weakened monsoonal circulation.However,the model captures only a fraction of the observed variations for the second shift event.Thus,the role of BC in modulating the two shift events is different,and its impact is relatively less important for the early 1990s event.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950404,No.2013CB430202)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41130960)
文摘The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon,with highting decadal and inter- decadal scales. The studies on the long- term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover,recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia(including Meiyu precipitation)are discussed. Finally,the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40775048 and 41075058)the Special Scientific Research Fund of Public Welfare Profession of China (Grant No. GYHY201106016)
文摘In this paper, we report on the results of an investigation into inter-decadal changes in moisture transport and divergence in East Asia for the two periods 1980-2001 and 1958 1979. The aim is to explore the mechanism of summer rainfall change in the region after abrupt changes. The relevant changes are calculated using ERA-40 daily reanalysis datasets. The results show that both stationary and transient eddy moisture transports to the Chinese mainland have declined since the abrupt change in atmospheric general circulation in the late 1970s, leading to more rainfall in South China and less in the North. The anomalous rainfall pattern coincides well with anomalous large-scale moisture divergence in the troposphere, of which stationary-wave or monsoon transport is dominant, in comparison with the contribution of the transient eddies. F^rthermore, their divergences are found to be in opposite phases. In addition, meridional divergence is more important than its zonal counterpart, with an opposite phase in East Asia. Abnormal zonal moisture convergences appear in northwestern and northeastern parts of China, and are related to the excess rainfalls in these regions. An increase in transient eddy activity is one of the major mechanisms for excess rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Consequently, the anomalous rainfall pattern in East Asia results from a decline of the East Asian monsoon after the abrupt change, while the rainfall increase in northwestern China involves anomalies of both stationary waves and transient eddies on boreal westerly over the mid- and high latitudes.
文摘In this paper,the intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China was defined objectively by using NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis data and national precipitation data from 1961 to 2004.In the inter-decadal time scales,the correlations between sea-level pressure field,850 hPa flow field,500 hPa geopotential height,sea surface temperature,Arctic sea ice concentration,a variety of oscillation indexes and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China were analyzed.The analysis showed that the great value area of correlations was consistent between sea-level pressure field,500 hPa geopotential height field and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China in pre-winter or summer,and the correlation was much better in summer than in pre-winter.The correlation was poor between the sea surface temperature and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China,but the correlation was good between the Arctic sea ice concentration and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China.The correlation was better between the NPO index and intensity index of East Asian summer monsoon in northeast China than other indexes.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No40233037)
文摘The strongest change in Meiyu periods in the mid-lower Yangtze Basin （MLY） since 1885 occurred in the late 1970s： a stage of weak Meiyu from 1958 to 1978 abruptly transformed into a stage of plentiful Meiyu from 1979 to 1999. The average Meiyu amount of the latter 21 years increased by 66% compared with that of the former 21 years, accompanied by a significant increase in the occurrence of summer floods in the MLY. This change was closely related with the frequent phenomenon of postponed Meiyu ending dates （MED） and later onset dates of high summer （ODHS） in the MLY. To a considerable degree, this reflects an abrupt change of the summer climate in East China. Further analysis showed that the preceding factors contributing to inter-annual changes in Meiyu in the two 21-year stages delimited above were also very different from each other. The causes of change were associated with the following： China’s industrialization has greatly accelerated since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in atmospheric pollution and a reduction of the solar radiation reaching the ground. The sand area of North China has also expanded due to overgrazing. The enhanced greenhouse effect is manifested in warm winters （especially in February）. Meanwhile, the January precipitation of the MLY has for the most part increased, and El Ni？o events have occurred more frequently since the late 1970s. A correlative scatter diagram consisting of these five factors mentioned above clearly shows that the two stages with opposite Meiyu characteristics are grouped in two contrasting locations with very different environmental （land-atmosphere） conditions. It is quite possible that we are now entering a new stage of lesser Meiyu, beginning in 2000.
基金National Scaling Project A The Scientific Experiment on South China Sea Monsoon Part I from the fund for (G1998040900)
文摘By using the 40-year NCEP (1958-1997) grid point reanalysis meteorological data, we analyzed the inter-decadal variation on the climatic characteristics of the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. The results are as follows. (1) There was great difference on the onset date of the SCS summer monsoon between the first two decades and the last two decades. It was late on the 6th pentad of May for the first two decades and was on the 4th and 5th pentad of May for the next two decades. (2) Except for the third decade (1978-1987), the establishment of the monsoon rainfall was one to two pentads earlier than the onset of the summer monsoon in all other three decades. (3) The onset of the SCS monsoon is the result of the abrupt development and eastward advancement of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. The four-decade analysis shows that there were abrupt development of the southwesterly monsoon over the Bay of Bengal between the 3rd and 4th pentad of May, but there was great difference between its eastward movement and its onset intensity. These may have important effect to the earlier or later onset of the SCS summer monsoon. (4) During the onset of the SCS summer monsoon, there were great difference in the upper and lower circulation feature between the first two and the next two decades. At the lower troposphere of the first two decades, the Indian-Burma trough was stronger and the center of the subtropical high was located more eastward. At the upper troposphere, the northward movement of the center of subtropical high was large and located more northward after it landed on the Indo-China Peninsula. After comparison, we can see that the circulation feature of the last two decades was favorable to the establishment and development of the SCS summer monsoon.
文摘Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51905123)Major Scientific and Technological Innovation Program of Shandong Province,China(Nos.2020CXGC010303,2022ZLGX04)Key R&D Programme of Shandong Province,China(No.2022JMRH0308).
文摘An internal state variable(ISV)model was established according to the experimental results of hot plane strain compression(PSC)to predict the microstructure evolution during hot spinning of ZK61 alloy.The effects of the internal variables were considered in this ISV model,and the parameters were optimized by genetic algorithm.After validation,the ISV model was used to simulate the evolution of grain size(GS)and dynamic recrystallization(DRX)fraction during hot spinning via Abaqus and its subroutine Vumat.By comparing the simulated results with the experimental results,the application of the ISV model was proven to be reliable.Meanwhile,the strength of the thin-walled spun ZK61 tube increased from 303 to 334 MPa due to grain refinement by DRX and texture strengthening.Besides,some ultrafine grains(0.5μm)that played an important role in mechanical properties were formed due to the proliferation,movement,and entanglement of dislocations during the spinning process.
