In this paper, a Negative Binomial (NB) Integer-valued Autoregressive model of order 1, INAR (1), is used to model and forecast the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases in Kenya independently for the...In this paper, a Negative Binomial (NB) Integer-valued Autoregressive model of order 1, INAR (1), is used to model and forecast the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases in Kenya independently for the three waves starting from 14<sup>th</sup> March 2020 to 1<sup>st</sup> February 2021. The first wave was experienced from 14<sup>th</sup> March 2020 to 15<sup>th</sup> September 2020, the second wave from around 15<sup>th</sup> September 2020 to 1<sup>st</sup> February 2021 and the third wave was experienced from 1<sup>st</sup> February 2021 to 3<sup>rd</sup> June 2021. 5, 10, and 15-day-ahead forecasts are obtained for these three waves and the performance of the NB-INAR (1) model analysed.展开更多
文摘In this paper, a Negative Binomial (NB) Integer-valued Autoregressive model of order 1, INAR (1), is used to model and forecast the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases in Kenya independently for the three waves starting from 14<sup>th</sup> March 2020 to 1<sup>st</sup> February 2021. The first wave was experienced from 14<sup>th</sup> March 2020 to 15<sup>th</sup> September 2020, the second wave from around 15<sup>th</sup> September 2020 to 1<sup>st</sup> February 2021 and the third wave was experienced from 1<sup>st</sup> February 2021 to 3<sup>rd</sup> June 2021. 5, 10, and 15-day-ahead forecasts are obtained for these three waves and the performance of the NB-INAR (1) model analysed.
