期刊文献+
共找到2,479篇文章
< 1 2 124 >
每页显示 20 50 100
Hybrid LEAP modeling method for long-term energy demand forecasting of regions with limited statistical data 被引量:4
1
作者 CHEN Rui RAO Zheng-hua LIAO Sheng-ming 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第8期2136-2148,共13页
An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited i... An accurate long-term energy demand forecasting is essential for energy planning and policy making. However, due to the immature energy data collecting and statistical methods, the available data are usually limited in many regions. In this paper, on the basis of comprehensive literature review, we proposed a hybrid model based on the long-range alternative energy planning (LEAP) model to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting in these regions. By taking Hunan province, China as a typical case, the proposed hybrid model was applied to estimating the possible future energy demand and energy-saving potentials in different sectors. The structure of LEAP model was estimated by Sankey energy flow, and Leslie matrix and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to predict the population, industrial structure and transportation turnover, respectively. Monte-Carlo method was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of forecasted results. The results showed that the hybrid model combined with scenario analysis provided a relatively accurate forecast for the long-term energy demand in regions with limited statistical data, and the average standard error of probabilistic distribution in 2030 energy demand was as low as 0.15. The prediction results could provide supportive references to identify energy-saving potentials and energy development pathways. 展开更多
关键词 energy demand forecasting with limited data hybrid LEAP model ARIMA model Leslie matrix Monte-Carlo method
在线阅读 下载PDF
ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF 3DVAR AND ENSRF DIRECT ASSIMILATION OF RADAR DATA ON THE FORECAST OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT 被引量:3
2
作者 刘寅 何光鑫 +2 位作者 刘佳伟 赵虹 燕成玉 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第3期413-425,共13页
The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar(CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produ... The present study designs experiments on the direct assimilation of radial velocity and reflectivity data collected by an S-band Doppler weather radar(CINRAD WSR-98D) at the Hefei Station and the reanalysis data produced by the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the WRF model with a three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation system and the WRF model with an ensemble square root filter(EnSRF) data assimilation system.In addition,the present study analyzes a Meiyu front heavy rainfall process that occurred in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin from July 4 to July 5,2003,through numerical simulation.The results show the following.(1) The assimilation of the radar radial velocity data can increase the perturbations in the low-altitude atmosphere over the heavy rainfall region,enhance the convective activities and reduce excessive simulated precipitation.(2) The 3DVAR assimilation method significantly adjusts the horizontal wind field.The assimilation of the reflectivity data improves the microphysical quantities and dynamic fields in the model.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can better adjust the wind fields and improve the intensity and location of the simulated radar echo bands.(3) The EnSRF assimilation method can assimilate more small-scale wind field information into the model.The assimilation of the reflectivity data alone can relatively accurately forecast the rainfall centers.In addition,the assimilation of the radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the location of the simulated radar echo bands.(4) The use of the 3DVAR and EnSRF assimilation methods to assimilate the radar radial velocity and reflectivity data can improve the forecast of precipitation,rain-band areal coverage and the center location and intensity of precipitation. 展开更多
关键词 ASSIMILATION radar data HEAVY RAINFALL forecast numerical simulation
在线阅读 下载PDF
Comparisons of Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and Model Output Statistics in Improving Atmospheric Chemistry Forecasts 被引量:1
3
作者 Chaoqun MA Tijian WANG +1 位作者 Zengliang ZANG Zhijin LI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第7期813-825,共13页
Atmospheric chemistry models usually perform badly in forecasting wintertime air pollution because of their uncertainties. Generally, such uncertainties can be decreased effectively by techniques such as data assimila... Atmospheric chemistry models usually perform badly in forecasting wintertime air pollution because of their uncertainties. Generally, such uncertainties can be decreased effectively by techniques such as data assimilation(DA) and model output statistics(MOS). However, the relative importance and combined effects of the two techniques have not been clarified. Here,a one-month air quality forecast with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model was carried out in a virtually operational setup focusing on Hebei Province, China. Meanwhile, three-dimensional variational(3 DVar) DA and MOS based on one-dimensional Kalman filtering were implemented separately and simultaneously to investigate their performance in improving the model forecast. Comparison with observations shows that the chemistry forecast with MOS outperforms that with 3 DVar DA, which could be seen in all the species tested over the whole 72 forecast hours. Combined use of both techniques does not guarantee a better forecast than MOS only, with the improvements and degradations being small and appearing rather randomly. Results indicate that the implementation of MOS is more suitable than 3 DVar DA in improving the operational forecasting ability of WRF-Chem. 展开更多
关键词 data assimilation model output statistics WRF-Chem operational forecast
在线阅读 下载PDF
A New Method for Forecasting the Life Test Data of Mechanical Products
4
作者 ZHANG Huai-liang, TAN Guanjun, QIU Xian-yan College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Central South University Changsha 410083, P R. China 《International Journal of Plant Engineering and Management》 2001年第2期57-64,共8页
The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an exampl... The model for forecasting the test data on mechanical products is established in the application of the grey system theories. A new formula of the background value is introduced into the model. The result of an example shows the method can reduce test expense and enhance the precision of forecasting. 展开更多
关键词 mechanical product life test data forecast grey system theory
在线阅读 下载PDF
A Prototype Regional GSI-based EnKF-Variational Hybrid Data Assimilation System for the Rapid Refresh Forecasting System:Dual-Resolution Implementation and Testing Results 被引量:8
5
作者 Yujie PAN Ming XUE +1 位作者 Kefeng ZHU Mingjun WANG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期518-530,共13页
A dual-resolution(DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)-3D ensemble variational(3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh f... A dual-resolution(DR) version of a regional ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)-3D ensemble variational(3DEnVar) coupled hybrid data assimilation system is implemented as a prototype for the operational Rapid Refresh forecasting system. The DR 3DEnVar system combines a high-resolution(HR) deterministic background forecast with lower-resolution(LR) EnKF ensemble perturbations used for flow-dependent background error covariance to produce a HR analysis. The computational cost is substantially reduced by running the ensemble forecasts and EnKF analyses at LR. The DR 3DEnVar system is tested with 3-h cycles over a 9-day period using a 40/13-km grid spacing combination. The HR forecasts from the DR hybrid analyses are compared with forecasts launched from HR Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation(GSI) 3D variational(3DVar)analyses, and single LR hybrid analyses interpolated to the HR grid. With the DR 3DEnVar system, a 90% weight for the ensemble covariance yields the lowest forecast errors and the DR hybrid system clearly outperforms the HR GSI 3DVar.Humidity and wind forecasts are also better than those launched from interpolated LR hybrid analyses, but the temperature forecasts are slightly worse. The humidity forecasts are improved most. For precipitation forecasts, the DR 3DEnVar always outperforms HR GSI 3DVar. It also outperforms the LR 3DEnVar, except for the initial forecast period and lower thresholds. 展开更多
关键词 dual-resolution 3D ensemble variational data assimilation system Rapid Refresh forecasting system
在线阅读 下载PDF
Improvement in Background Error Covariances Using Ensemble Forecasts for Assimilation of High-Resolution Satellite Data
6
作者 Seung-Woo LEE Dong-Kyou LEE 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第4期758-774,共17页
Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper di... Satellite data obtained over synoptic data-sparse regions such as an ocean contribute toward improving the quality of the initial state of limited-area models. Background error covariances are crucial to the proper distribution of satellite-observed information in variational data assimilation. In the NMC (National Meteorological Center) method, background error covariances are underestimated over data-sparse regions such as an ocean because of small differences between different forecast times. Thus, it is necessary to reconstruct and tune the background error covariances so as to maximize the usefulness of the satellite data for the initial state of limited-area models, especially over an ocean where there is a lack of conventional data. In this study, we attempted to estimate background error covariances so as to provide adequate error statistics for data-sparse regions by using ensemble forecasts of optimal perturbations using bred vectors. The background error covariances estimated by the ensemble method reduced the overestimation of error amplitude obtained by the NMC method. By employing an appropriate horizontal length scale to exclude spurious correlations, the ensemble method produced better results than the NMC method in the assimilation of retrieved satellite data. Because the ensemble method distributes observed information over a limited local area, it would be more useful in the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. Accordingly, the performance of forecast models can be improved over the area where the satellite data are assimilated. 展开更多
关键词 3DVAR background error covariances retrieved satellite data assimilation ensemble forecasts.
在线阅读 下载PDF
IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION, MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING——A CASE STUDY
7
作者 SHAO Min ZHANG Yu XU Jian-jun 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2020年第1期71-81,共11页
The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top,refining the vertical resolution,and the assimilation of operationally available observations,includ... The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top,refining the vertical resolution,and the assimilation of operationally available observations,including conventional and satellite observations,on continental U.S.winter short-range weather forecasting,were investigated in this study.The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations.Generally,the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used.Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles,over the lower troposphere.Different from the results by only raising the model top,the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used.Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill.The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution,as well as those caused by data assimilation,were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere.Negative impacts were also observed in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature.These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information,as well as to some physical processes.A case study shows that when we raise the model top,put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation,the precipitation scores can be slightly improved.However,more analysis is needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation. 展开更多
关键词 WRF model vertical resolution model top data assimilation weather forecast
在线阅读 下载PDF
A New Economy Forecasting Method Based on Data Barycentre Forecasting Method
8
作者 Jilin Zhang Qun Zhang 《Chinese Business Review》 2005年第5期25-28,共4页
A new and useful method of technology economics, parameter estimation method, was presented in light of the stability of gravity center of object in this paper. This method could deal with the fitting and forecasting ... A new and useful method of technology economics, parameter estimation method, was presented in light of the stability of gravity center of object in this paper. This method could deal with the fitting and forecasting of economy volume and could greatly decrease the errors of the fitting and forecasting results. Moreover, the strict hypothetical conditions in least squares method were not necessary in the method presented in this paper, which overcame the shortcomings of least squares method and expanded the application of data barycentre method. Application to the steel consumption volume forecasting was presented in this paper. It was shown that the result of fitting and forecasting was satisfactory. From the comparison between data barycentre forecasting method and least squares method, we could conclude that the fitting and forecasting results using data barycentre method were more stable than those of using least squares regression forecasting method, and the computation of data barycentre forecasting method was simpler than that of least squares method. As a result, the data barycentre method was convenient to use in technical economy. 展开更多
关键词 data barycentre method parameter estimation small sample steel forecasting
在线阅读 下载PDF
Forecasting Winning Bid Prices in an Online Auction Market - Data Mining Approaches 被引量:1
9
作者 KIM Hongil BAEK Seung 《Journal of Electronic Science and Technology of China》 2004年第3期6-11,共6页
To solve information asymmetry problem on online auction, this study suggests and validates a forecasting model of winning bid prices. Especially, it explores the usability of data mining approaches, such as neural ne... To solve information asymmetry problem on online auction, this study suggests and validates a forecasting model of winning bid prices. Especially, it explores the usability of data mining approaches, such as neural network and Bayesian network in building a forecasting model. This research empirically shows that, in forecasting winning bid prices on online auction, data mining techniques have shown better performance than traditional statistical analysis, such as logistic regression and multivariate regression. 展开更多
关键词 Bayesian network data mining neural network price forecasting
在线阅读 下载PDF
The Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)in Time-Series Forecasting of Rice Yield
10
作者 Nadira Mohamed Isa Shabri Ani Samsudin Ruhaidah 《材料科学与工程(中英文B版)》 2011年第3期378-387,共10页
关键词 时间序列预测模型 人工神经网络 GMDH 水稻产量 数据处理 ANN 多项式函数 双曲线
在线阅读 下载PDF
Research on Forecast Technologyof Mine Gas Emission Based onFuzzy Data Mining(FDM)
11
作者 徐常凯 王耀才 王军威 《Journal of China University of Mining and Technology》 2004年第2期174-178,共5页
The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advan... The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently. 展开更多
关键词 fuzzy data raining (FDM) gas emission forecast
在线阅读 下载PDF
Evaluating the Robustness of MDSS Maintenance Forecasts Using Connected Vehicle Data
12
作者 Gregory L. Brinster Jairaj Desai +5 位作者 Myles W. Overall Christopher Gartner Rahul Suryakant Sakhare Jijo K. Mathew Nick Evans Darcy Bullock 《Journal of Transportation Technologies》 2024年第4期549-569,共21页
The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) adopted the Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) for user-defined plowing segments in the winter of 2008-2009. Since then, many new data sources, including connec... The Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT) adopted the Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) for user-defined plowing segments in the winter of 2008-2009. Since then, many new data sources, including connected vehicle data, enhanced weather data, and fleet telematics, have been integrated into INDOT winter operations activities. The objective of this study was to use these new data sources to conduct a systematic evaluation of the robustness of the MDSS forecasts. During the 2023-2024 winter season, 26 unique MDSS forecast data attributes were collected at 0, 1, 3, 6, 12 and 23-hour intervals from the observed storm time for 6 roadway segments during 13 individual storms. In total, over 888,000 MDSS data points were archived for this evaluation. This study developed novel visualizations to compare MDSS forecasts to multiple other independent data sources, including connected vehicle data, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) weather data, road friction data and snowplow telematics. Three Indiana storms, with varying characteristics and severity, were analyzed in detailed case studies. Those storms occurred on January 6th, 2024, January 13th, 2024 and February 16th, 2024. Incorporating these visualizations into winter weather after-action reports increases the robustness of post-storm performance analysis and allows road weather stakeholders to better understand the capabilities of MDSS. The results of this analysis will provide a framework for future MDSS evaluations and implementations as well as training tools for winter operation stakeholders in Indiana and beyond. 展开更多
关键词 Weather forecasting Winter Weather Connected Vehicle data After-Action Report
在线阅读 下载PDF
基于DC-FreTS模型的电力负荷预测方法
13
作者 王树君 吴自然 《机电工程技术》 2026年第2期110-115,201,共7页
电力系统的复杂化造成了电力负荷数据波动性与数量增加,提高了电力负荷预测的难度。针对短期电力负荷预测(STLF)任务,提出了一种DC-FreTS短期电力负荷预测模型,该模型采用离散傅里叶变换(DFT)算法对负荷数据进行降噪处理,降低了数据波... 电力系统的复杂化造成了电力负荷数据波动性与数量增加,提高了电力负荷预测的难度。针对短期电力负荷预测(STLF)任务,提出了一种DC-FreTS短期电力负荷预测模型,该模型采用离散傅里叶变换(DFT)算法对负荷数据进行降噪处理,降低了数据波动。通过卷积神经网络(CNN)从去噪后的时间序列中提取局部特征。采用FreTS模型对特征序列进行负荷预测。在实验中,利用3个数据集对该模型方法与LSTM、Transformer、Informer以及Autoformer等常用于负荷预测的模型进行实验比较,结果表明,在相同条件下,DC-FreTS模型的各项指标均优于原模型,在数据集ECL中,MSE误差下降了14.2%,MAE下降了9.8%;在数据集ETTm2中,MSE与MAE分别下降了6.3%、3%;在数据集ETLS上,MSE与MAE分别下降了9%、3.2%。并通过消融实验充分验证了所提模型在数据处理和模型优化方面取得的显著性能提升。 展开更多
关键词 电力负荷预测 数据降噪 局部特征提取 FreTS
在线阅读 下载PDF
多源异频数据多尺度融合:基于Transformer的煤炭需求预测研究
14
作者 邵枫 冯雨 +3 位作者 沈浩楠 耿国强 黄鹏 邵虎 《煤炭经济研究》 2026年第1期37-45,共9页
准确预测煤炭需求对于保障国家能源安全、稳定市场价格及制定宏观经济政策具有至关重要的作用。然而,影响煤炭需求的因素众多,其相关数据往往来源于不同部门,具有日度、旬度、月度等多样的采集频率,给传统预测模型带来了巨大挑战。为解... 准确预测煤炭需求对于保障国家能源安全、稳定市场价格及制定宏观经济政策具有至关重要的作用。然而,影响煤炭需求的因素众多,其相关数据往往来源于不同部门,具有日度、旬度、月度等多样的采集频率,给传统预测模型带来了巨大挑战。为解决该问题,提出一种融合多频率特征的深度学习模型——多频时间序列Transformer(MFT-Former),用于煤炭需求预测。该方法首先通过一套系统化的数据处理流程,将多源异构的原始数据清洗、对齐并重采样为3个时间同步的高、中、低频特征矩阵。随后,将此3个矩阵作为并行输入,送入一个特殊设计的多输入Transformer网络。该网络包含3个独立的编码器分支,分别捕捉各频率下的时间依赖模式,并通过一个融合层将提取到的深层特征进行整合,实现对未来煤炭需求的预测。利用包含多个经济与行业指标的真实数据集,以过去12个月的数据预测未来6个月的需求为任务,对模型预测表现进行评估。实验结果表明,MFT-Former模型能够有效融合不同时间尺度的信息,其在测试集上的平均绝对百分比误差达到6.24%,证明了该方法在处理复杂、多频时间序列预测问题上的有效性和准确性。 展开更多
关键词 煤炭需求预测 多源异频数据 多尺度特征融合 TRANSFORMER 时间序列预测
原文传递
跳跃信息、机器学习模型与已实现波动率预测
15
作者 冯文君 张正军 王一鸣 《数据与计算发展前沿(中英文)》 2026年第1期45-63,共19页
【目的】探讨股价跳跃特征与机器学习模型在已实现波动率预测中的协同作用,分析不同预测方法在不同时间尺度上的表现。【方法】基于上证50指数成分股2019年至2024年的五分钟高频数据,采用阈值法逐点识别股价跳跃,并通过K-近邻算法(KNN)... 【目的】探讨股价跳跃特征与机器学习模型在已实现波动率预测中的协同作用,分析不同预测方法在不同时间尺度上的表现。【方法】基于上证50指数成分股2019年至2024年的五分钟高频数据,采用阈值法逐点识别股价跳跃,并通过K-近邻算法(KNN)提取跳跃频率、跳跃幅度等多维特征,构建包含丰富跳跃信息的特征体系。随后,使用扩展的异质自回归波动率(HAR)模型及10种机器学习算法,包括KNN、随机森林(RF)、梯度提升回归树(GBRT)、支持向量回归(SVR)等,对多周期已实现波动率进行预测,并系统评估机器学习方法与跳跃信息的结合效果。【结果】样本内预测显示,引入跳跃特征与采用机器学习模型均能提高预测精度,其中KNN与随机森林的表现最优。在样本外预测中,HAR-RV模型在日度预测中仍然最优,而在周度和月度预测中,跳跃信息和机器学习模型可提升预测效果,但当HAR模型已整合跳跃信息后,机器学习方法未能进一步改善预测性能。【结论】本研究扩展了波动率预测的特征空间,并系统评估了机器学习方法在波动率预测中的有效性。研究表明,多维跳跃特征能够提供额外信息,有助于提高中长期波动率预测精度。然而在HAR模型已纳入跳跃信息后,机器学习模型难以进一步提供增量价值。这一发现对金融市场风险管理和资产定价具有重要意义。 展开更多
关键词 已实现波动率 跳跃 预测 机器学习 高频数据
在线阅读 下载PDF
计算机通信技术在电力负荷预测数据采集中的应用
16
作者 韦美兰 《通信电源技术》 2026年第1期46-48,共3页
为提升电力负荷预测数据采集的实时性与可靠性,针对采集过程存在的通信协议异构、传输延迟及网络安全风险等核心问题,系统研究计算机通信技术应用方案。提出基于协议转换网关的异构数据融合、基于光纤通信与服务质量(Quality of Service... 为提升电力负荷预测数据采集的实时性与可靠性,针对采集过程存在的通信协议异构、传输延迟及网络安全风险等核心问题,系统研究计算机通信技术应用方案。提出基于协议转换网关的异构数据融合、基于光纤通信与服务质量(Quality of Service,QoS)调度结合的延迟优化,以及基于高级加密标准(Advanced Encryption Standard,AES)加密与安全散列算法(Secure Hash Algorithm,SHA)校验的安全防护策略。研究结果表明,计算机通信技术可有效解决力负荷预测数据采集过程中的多源数据互通瓶颈,显著降低传输时延,并增强数据传输的安全性。 展开更多
关键词 电力负荷预测 数据采集 计算机通信技术
在线阅读 下载PDF
数据驱动的综合能源系统运行优化研究
17
作者 徐聪 徐静静 +2 位作者 江婷 薛东 闫立辰 《综合智慧能源》 2026年第1期34-42,共9页
近年来,物联网、大数据和人工智能等数字化技术的快速发展给综合能源系统(IES)运行优化带来了新方法。提出了基于数据驱动的IES运行优化方法,针对北方某自备能源站的产业园区,采用深度学习长短期记忆神经网络模型进行多元负荷联合预测... 近年来,物联网、大数据和人工智能等数字化技术的快速发展给综合能源系统(IES)运行优化带来了新方法。提出了基于数据驱动的IES运行优化方法,针对北方某自备能源站的产业园区,采用深度学习长短期记忆神经网络模型进行多元负荷联合预测和光伏发电功率预测,为能源站运行优化提供精准依据;通过数据驱动的机器学习算法对主要供能设备进行全工况建模;分别以能效、经济和综合效益指标为优化目标,利用粒子群优化算法求解,得到典型日运行优化结果。能效指标最优情况下,系统综合能源利用率达83.0%,运行成本为64 802元;经济指标最优情况下,系统运行成本低至64 590元,综合能源利用率为79.3%;综合效益最优情况下,与能源站实际运行情况相比,综合能源利用率提升了7.5%,运行成本节约了6 444元。结果表明,本运行优化方法对指导IES运行优化具有实际应用意义。 展开更多
关键词 综合能源系统 多元负荷联合预测 光伏发电功率预测 数据驱动建模 运行优化
在线阅读 下载PDF
基于WPA-BiGM(1,1)模型的宠物数量趋势预测
18
作者 岳舒晴 牛敏捷 +2 位作者 王程扬 熊昕 胡曦 《江汉大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026年第1期87-96,共10页
基于2019-2024年国内宠物狗与宠物猫的相关数据,通过双层灰色模型(bi-level grey model,BiGM)结合狼群优化(wolf pack algorithm,WPA)算法,对宠物狗与宠物猫数量的变化趋势进行拟合和预测。首先对缺失插值补全,再利用双层灰色预测模型... 基于2019-2024年国内宠物狗与宠物猫的相关数据,通过双层灰色模型(bi-level grey model,BiGM)结合狼群优化(wolf pack algorithm,WPA)算法,对宠物狗与宠物猫数量的变化趋势进行拟合和预测。首先对缺失插值补全,再利用双层灰色预测模型挖掘历史数据规律,并引入WPA算法优化模型参数,再通过与其他模型的比较分析,验证了该模型相较于其他传统预测模型在拟合精度和预测精度上的优势。最后,对2025-2028年宠物狗与宠物猫的数量进行预测,结果显示,宠物狗数量呈现下降趋势,宠物猫数量呈现上升趋势。该结果可为宠物市场规划提供科学依据,并为行业从业者和决策者提供数据支持。 展开更多
关键词 WPA-BiGM(1 1) 宠物产业 数据预测 模型优化
在线阅读 下载PDF
日本企业技术预测的实践与启示--以NTT DATA集团为例 被引量:1
19
作者 韩秋明 黄红华 《全球科技经济瞭望》 2021年第12期53-61,共9页
本文利用案例研究法,介绍NTT DATA集团2012年至2021年的企业技术预测方法体系、预测逻辑等基本情况,总结其对于信息社会趋势判断的三方面特点,归纳其关注的技术创新趋势主要集中在人工智能、服务创新、IT基础与网络架构、数据技术、生... 本文利用案例研究法,介绍NTT DATA集团2012年至2021年的企业技术预测方法体系、预测逻辑等基本情况,总结其对于信息社会趋势判断的三方面特点,归纳其关注的技术创新趋势主要集中在人工智能、服务创新、IT基础与网络架构、数据技术、生命科学和计算能力六个方面。分析了日本企业技术预测的特点、优势和不足,对充分发挥企业技术预测的作用提出三方面建议。 展开更多
关键词 日本 NTT data 企业技术预测 国家技术预测体系 技术创新 信息社会
在线阅读 下载PDF
计及精细化气象因素的短期负荷预测算法设计
20
作者 张梦凡 徐丹蕾 +2 位作者 耿琳 史普鑫 邵晓茹 《自动化仪表》 2026年第2期94-98,共5页
复杂天气条件下,短期电网负荷的预测精度低,并且所采用的传统反向传播(BP)神经网络存在收敛速度缓慢、隐藏层结构无法直接确定等问题。基于强化学习的思想,在考虑了多种影响因素的前提下,提出了一种改进的神经网络算法。该算法通过粗糙... 复杂天气条件下,短期电网负荷的预测精度低,并且所采用的传统反向传播(BP)神经网络存在收敛速度缓慢、隐藏层结构无法直接确定等问题。基于强化学习的思想,在考虑了多种影响因素的前提下,提出了一种改进的神经网络算法。该算法通过粗糙集评估不同天气因素组成的条件属性对决策属性的影响权重;同时,对数据集进行精简降维,避免了次要因素对预测结果的影响。这减轻了BP神经网络在大规模数据处理时的压力,避免了噪声数据对预测结果的影响。基于采集到的负荷以及区域气象数据建立测试数据集,并进行仿真试验。试验结果表明,不同天气因素对电力负荷的预测结果影响具有显著差异。所设计算法较长短时记忆(LSTM)网络的预测精度提升了5.32%,同时综合性能也明显提升。该算法的设计达到了预期目的。 展开更多
关键词 机器学习 反向传播神经网络 负荷预测 用电量数据分析 粗糙集 数据降维
在线阅读 下载PDF
上一页 1 2 124 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部