To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based...To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.展开更多
Oilfield A is a fractured buried hill reservoir in Bohai bay of China. In order to solve the difficult problem of water flooding timing and method in oilfield. Considering the characteristics of the buried hill fractu...Oilfield A is a fractured buried hill reservoir in Bohai bay of China. In order to solve the difficult problem of water flooding timing and method in oilfield. Considering the characteristics of the buried hill fractures with stress sensitivity and strong heterogeneity, the ECLIPSE software was used in the research, and a three-dimensional injection-production numerical model for horizontal wells in buried hill reservoirs is established. According to the main research factors in water flooding, a series of water flooding schemes are designed, and the optimization of water flooding timing, oil recovery rate and water flooding mode in buried hill reservoirs were carried out. The results show that the optimum pressure level of fractured reservoir is about 70% of the original reservoir pressure. The optimal water flooding method is the conventional water flooding in the initial stage, when the water cut reaches 80%, it is converted into periodic water flooding. The oil recovery is the highest when the water injection period is 4 months. Field tests show that conventional water flooding is carried out in the initial stage of the oilfield A when the pressure is reduced to 70% of the original. Periodic water flooding is carried out when water cut is 80%. Good development results had been achieved in the 10 years since oilfield A was put into production. The average productivity of single well reached 300 m3/d in the initial stage, at present, the water cut is 60%, and the recovery degree is 18.5%, which is better than that of similar oilfields. This technology improves the water flooding effect of blocky bottom water fractured dual media reservoirs in metamorphic buried hills, and provides a reference for the development of similar reservoirs.展开更多
The cartography of floods by two different approaches enabled us to determine the limits and the advantages of each one of them. This cartography has been applied to the El Maleh basin situated in the South-East of Mo...The cartography of floods by two different approaches enabled us to determine the limits and the advantages of each one of them. This cartography has been applied to the El Maleh basin situated in the South-East of Morocco. The HEC-RAS approach consists of a combination of the surface hydrologic model and the digital terrain model data. This combination allows thereafter the mapping of the flood zones by the use of the WMS software. Thus it can predict the probability occurrence of floods at various frequency times and determine the intensity of the flood (depth and velocity of flood water) inside the El Maleh river by using the existing hydrological data. Otherwise FHI method approach introduces a multi-criteria index to assess flood risk areas in a regional scale. Six parameters (flow accumulation, distance from drainage network, drainage network density, slope, land use, and geology) were used in this last method. The relative importance of each parameter for the occurrence and severity of flood has been connected to weight values. These values are calculated following an Analytical Hierarchy Process: AHP, a method originally developed for the solution of Operational Research problems. According to their weight values, information of the different parameters is superimposed, resulting to flood risk mapping. The use of the WMS model allowed us to accurately map the flood risk areas with precisely flood heights in different levels. However, this method is only applicable for a small portion of the basin located downstream of the hydrological station. Otherwise, the FHI method allows it to map the entire basin but without giving an indication of the water levels reached by floods. One method does not exclude the other since both approaches provide important information for flood risk assessment.展开更多
The main aim in this research is comparison the parameters of some storm events in the watershed using two loss models in Unit hydrograph method by HEC-HMS. SCS Curve Number and Green-Ampt methods by developing loss m...The main aim in this research is comparison the parameters of some storm events in the watershed using two loss models in Unit hydrograph method by HEC-HMS. SCS Curve Number and Green-Ampt methods by developing loss model as a major component in runoff and flood modeling. The study is conducted in the Kuala Lumpurwatershed with674 km2 area located in Klang basin inMalaysia. The catchment delineation is generated for the Klang watershed to get sub-watershed parameters by using HEC-GeoHMS extension in ARCGIS. Then all the necessary parameters are assigned to the models applied in this study to run the runoff and flood model. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the SCS-CN and Green-Ampt loss method applied in the Klang watershed. Estimated direct runoff and Peak discharge (r = 0.98) indicates a statistically positive correlations between the results of the study. And also it has been attempted to use objective functions in HEC-HMS (percent error peaks and percent error volume) to classify the methods. The selection of best method is on the base of considering least difference between the results of simulation to observed events in hydrographs so that it can address which model is suit for runoff-flood simulation in Klang watershed. Results showed that SCS CN and Green-Ampt methods, in three events by fitting with percent error in peak and percent error in volume had no significant difference.展开更多
This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study are...This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.展开更多
基于Web of Science与中国知网数据库旱涝急转相关文献,利用CiteSpace软件对年度发文量、关键词共现与突现进行分析,系统综述了旱涝急转的识别方法、成因及影响的研究进展,并展望今后旱涝急转相关研究问题。结果表明:①旱涝急转的发文...基于Web of Science与中国知网数据库旱涝急转相关文献,利用CiteSpace软件对年度发文量、关键词共现与突现进行分析,系统综述了旱涝急转的识别方法、成因及影响的研究进展,并展望今后旱涝急转相关研究问题。结果表明:①旱涝急转的发文量逐年增加,国内发文量占总发文量的53.2%,研究历经初步探索(2005—2010年)、快速发展(2011—2018年)和稳定发展(2019—2024年)三阶段;外文研究在2018年后加速增长至2023年达峰值。②国内聚焦时空演变与大气环流机制,关键词以趋势分析,降水,低频振荡为主;国外侧重气候变化背景下旱涝急转的变化与影响,热点集中于Yangtze River,vegetation等。③旱涝急转目前缺乏统一、全面的识别方法;其成因分析多局限于气象因素,对其他成因的研究较为缺乏;其灾害影响研究主要集中于农业与植被,对社会经济、城市生态等领域的探讨较为薄弱。展开更多
Flood runoff models of urbanization from farmland based on the physical characteristics of a basin have been minimally used in previous research until today. Consequently, the runoff analysis has not been performed th...Flood runoff models of urbanization from farmland based on the physical characteristics of a basin have been minimally used in previous research until today. Consequently, the runoff analysis has not been performed that is based on physical basis. Therefore, this research undertook flood discharge analysis from urbanization using the unit flood discharge concept that is enhanced the previous research. The study area was selected at the Kurabe River basin, which is 17.5 km2 in area having a very steep landscape. Twenty-one rainfall events at 10-minute intervals were selected, and five urbanized years were tested. From 1976 to 2009 during 35 years, the flood discharge increased approximately 2.0 times, in which residential areas increased from 23% to 48%;the maximum specific discharge was 21.7 m3·s-1·km-2 in a some block, which is a remarkably large amount. Furthermore, following issues investigated: changes in the hydrograph were associated with urbanization, the effect of a small reservoir aiming to cut down the peak discharge and the relationship between the unit discharge, and the relationship between our method and the discharge estimated by a “Rational Formula”. In particular, the effect of the small reservoir for flood control was found to be remarkably efficient. Finally, the validity of our method was confirmed at the study area in the observed discharge. This result is very useful for estimating runoff discharge changes by urbanization from farmland.展开更多
A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time err...A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.展开更多
Flood is one of the most predominant disasters around the globe and frequently occurring phenomena in the northern part of Pakistan. In this study, the effects of various divisions of flood inventory and combinations ...Flood is one of the most predominant disasters around the globe and frequently occurring phenomena in the northern part of Pakistan. In this study, the effects of various divisions of flood inventory and combinations of conditioning factors were assessed for the preparation of final susceptibility map. The flood inventory map was prepared for Charsadda by visual interpretation of Landsat-7 image alongside the field survey and a total of 161 flood locations were mapped. The flood inventory was subsequently divided into training and validation datasets, 129 (80%) and 112 (70%) locations for training the model and 32 (20%) and 49 (30%) for validation of the model. In this study, nine conditioning factors were used (Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Curvature, Plan curvature, Profile curvature, Proximity to river, roads, and Land use/land cover) for the development of flood susceptibility map. All the conditioning factors were correlated with flood inventory map using the information value method. The final susceptibility maps were validated using prediction rate and success rate curve. The results from validation showed that the areas under curve in the prediction rate curve for the models are: Model A (99.47%), Model B (95.04%), and Model C (94.06%), respectively. The Area under curve (AUC) in the success rate curve obtained for the three models are: Model A (95.03%), Model B (86.91%), and Model C (89.67%), respectively. Eventually, the susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility zones. The success rate and prediction rate curve indicated that model A has more accuracy in comparison to model B and model C;though, the results obtained from prediction and success rate curve indicated that all the models are reliable and has no significant difference between the susceptibility maps. Consequently, results obtained from this study are useful for researchers, disaster managers, and decision-makers to manage the flood-prone areas in the study area to mitigate the flood damages.展开更多
The floods in river Mahanadi delta are due to either dam release of Hirakud or due to contribution of intercepted catchment between Hirakud dam and delta. It is seen from post-Hirakud periods (1958) that out of 19 flo...The floods in river Mahanadi delta are due to either dam release of Hirakud or due to contribution of intercepted catchment between Hirakud dam and delta. It is seen from post-Hirakud periods (1958) that out of 19 floods 14 are due to intercepted catchment contribution. The existing flood forecasting systems are mostly for upstream catchment, forecasting the inflow to reservoir, whereas the downstream catchment is devoid of a sound flood forecasting system. Therefore, in this study an attempt has been made to develop a workable forecasting system for downstream catchment. Instead of taking the flow time series concurrent flood peaks of 12 years of base and forecasting stations with its corresponding travel time are considered for analysis. Both statistical method and ANN based approach are considered for finding the peak to reach at delta head with its corresponding travel time. The travel time has been finalized adopting clustering techniques, there by differentiating high, medium and low peaks. The method is simple and it does not take into consideration the rainfall and other factors in the intercepted catchment. A comparison between both methods are tested and it is found that the ANN methods are better beyond the calibration range over statistical method and the efficiency of either methods reduces as the prediction reach is extended. However, it is able to give the peak discharge at delta head before 24 hour to 37 hour for high to low peaks.展开更多
This study analyzes the groundwater environment in the Yangzhuang flood detention basin in Henan Province,China.A numerical model of groundwater flow is established based on the hydrogeological conditions in the basin...This study analyzes the groundwater environment in the Yangzhuang flood detention basin in Henan Province,China.A numerical model of groundwater flow is established based on the hydrogeological conditions in the basin and changes of groundwater level in the flood detention basin under flood detention and recession conditions.The results show that during flood diversion and storage,the groundwater level in the basin rises,mainly in four flood detention zones,with a maximum rise of 1.0 m.After the floodwater recedes,the groundwater level slowly drops in the detention basin along with flood discharge,finally returning to its original level fifty days later.This study indicates that groundwater recession in the flood detention basin is a slow process,where the rise of groundwater level may cause environmental problems such as soil swamping.展开更多
The evaluation method, model and process for the flood and waterlogging disaster condition by GIS,RS and GPS technology and the method for setting up disaster condition database, dyke database and historical disaster ...The evaluation method, model and process for the flood and waterlogging disaster condition by GIS,RS and GPS technology and the method for setting up disaster condition database, dyke database and historical disaster damage database are presented. An index of flood damage degree(FDD) used to evaluate the relative degree of disaster loss and divide flood and waterlogging area is suggested. The value of flood damage degree can be calculated as follows :taking the various disaster losses of sample area in a base year as standard value and computing the ratios of various disaster loss values in different areas and years to the standard flood disaster loss values, then summing up the weighted ratios. The computed results are the value of flood damage degree in the every year. The macroscopic flood disaster distribution can be evaluated by the values of flood loss degree.展开更多
适应城市化进程加速与气候变化,提高抵御洪涝灾害的能力是可持续发展的必由之路。从韧性视角出发,构建基于“自然-经济-社会-基础设施”的洪涝韧性评估框架,运用组合赋权-逼近理想解排序模型(Technique for Order Preference by Similar...适应城市化进程加速与气候变化,提高抵御洪涝灾害的能力是可持续发展的必由之路。从韧性视角出发,构建基于“自然-经济-社会-基础设施”的洪涝韧性评估框架,运用组合赋权-逼近理想解排序模型(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)评估2007—2022年南京都市圈城市洪涝韧性水平,并利用障碍度模型诊断抑制洪涝韧性提升的主要因素。结果表明:(1)都市圈城市洪涝韧性呈上升趋势,从较低水平转变为中等水平;(2)洪涝韧性空间分布呈现以南京为核心、向四周辐射递减的“中心-外围”特征;(3)研究时段末南京都市圈洪涝韧性的关键限制因素有河流调蓄能力、人口脆弱度、政府财政情况,植被覆盖率为部分城市潜在障碍因素。研究可为南京都市圈完善洪涝灾害防治体系、提升洪涝韧性提供参考。展开更多
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants No.51278239)
文摘To improve flood control efficiency and increase urban resilience to flooding,the impacts of forest type change on flood control in the upper reach of the Tingjiang River(URTR) were evaluated by a modified model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number(SCS-CN) method. Parameters of the model were selected and determined according to the comprehensive analysis of model evaluation indexes. The first simulation of forest reconstruction scenario,namely a coniferous forest covering 59.35km^2 is replaced by a broad-leaved forest showed no significant impact on the flood reduction in the URTR. The second simulation was added with 61.75km^2 bamboo forest replaced by broad-leaved forest,the reduction of flood peak discharge and flood volume could be improved significantly. Specifically,flood peak discharge of 10-year return period event was reduced to 7-year event,and the reduction rate of small flood was 21%-28%. Moreover,the flood volume was reduced by 9%-14% and 18%-35% for moderate floods and small floods,respectively. The resultssuggest that the bamboo forest reconstruction is an effective control solution for small to moderate flood in the URTR,the effect of forest conversion on flood volume is increasingly reduced as the rainfall amount increases to more extreme magnitude. Using a hydrological model with scenarios analysis is an effective simulation approach in investigating the relationship between forest type change and flood control. This method would provide reliable support for flood control and disaster mitigation in mountainous cities.
文摘Oilfield A is a fractured buried hill reservoir in Bohai bay of China. In order to solve the difficult problem of water flooding timing and method in oilfield. Considering the characteristics of the buried hill fractures with stress sensitivity and strong heterogeneity, the ECLIPSE software was used in the research, and a three-dimensional injection-production numerical model for horizontal wells in buried hill reservoirs is established. According to the main research factors in water flooding, a series of water flooding schemes are designed, and the optimization of water flooding timing, oil recovery rate and water flooding mode in buried hill reservoirs were carried out. The results show that the optimum pressure level of fractured reservoir is about 70% of the original reservoir pressure. The optimal water flooding method is the conventional water flooding in the initial stage, when the water cut reaches 80%, it is converted into periodic water flooding. The oil recovery is the highest when the water injection period is 4 months. Field tests show that conventional water flooding is carried out in the initial stage of the oilfield A when the pressure is reduced to 70% of the original. Periodic water flooding is carried out when water cut is 80%. Good development results had been achieved in the 10 years since oilfield A was put into production. The average productivity of single well reached 300 m3/d in the initial stage, at present, the water cut is 60%, and the recovery degree is 18.5%, which is better than that of similar oilfields. This technology improves the water flooding effect of blocky bottom water fractured dual media reservoirs in metamorphic buried hills, and provides a reference for the development of similar reservoirs.
文摘The cartography of floods by two different approaches enabled us to determine the limits and the advantages of each one of them. This cartography has been applied to the El Maleh basin situated in the South-East of Morocco. The HEC-RAS approach consists of a combination of the surface hydrologic model and the digital terrain model data. This combination allows thereafter the mapping of the flood zones by the use of the WMS software. Thus it can predict the probability occurrence of floods at various frequency times and determine the intensity of the flood (depth and velocity of flood water) inside the El Maleh river by using the existing hydrological data. Otherwise FHI method approach introduces a multi-criteria index to assess flood risk areas in a regional scale. Six parameters (flow accumulation, distance from drainage network, drainage network density, slope, land use, and geology) were used in this last method. The relative importance of each parameter for the occurrence and severity of flood has been connected to weight values. These values are calculated following an Analytical Hierarchy Process: AHP, a method originally developed for the solution of Operational Research problems. According to their weight values, information of the different parameters is superimposed, resulting to flood risk mapping. The use of the WMS model allowed us to accurately map the flood risk areas with precisely flood heights in different levels. However, this method is only applicable for a small portion of the basin located downstream of the hydrological station. Otherwise, the FHI method allows it to map the entire basin but without giving an indication of the water levels reached by floods. One method does not exclude the other since both approaches provide important information for flood risk assessment.
文摘The main aim in this research is comparison the parameters of some storm events in the watershed using two loss models in Unit hydrograph method by HEC-HMS. SCS Curve Number and Green-Ampt methods by developing loss model as a major component in runoff and flood modeling. The study is conducted in the Kuala Lumpurwatershed with674 km2 area located in Klang basin inMalaysia. The catchment delineation is generated for the Klang watershed to get sub-watershed parameters by using HEC-GeoHMS extension in ARCGIS. Then all the necessary parameters are assigned to the models applied in this study to run the runoff and flood model. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the SCS-CN and Green-Ampt loss method applied in the Klang watershed. Estimated direct runoff and Peak discharge (r = 0.98) indicates a statistically positive correlations between the results of the study. And also it has been attempted to use objective functions in HEC-HMS (percent error peaks and percent error volume) to classify the methods. The selection of best method is on the base of considering least difference between the results of simulation to observed events in hydrographs so that it can address which model is suit for runoff-flood simulation in Klang watershed. Results showed that SCS CN and Green-Ampt methods, in three events by fitting with percent error in peak and percent error in volume had no significant difference.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51779074 and 41371052)the Special Fund for the Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China(Grant No.201501059)+3 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC0404304)the Jiangsu Water Conservancy Science and Technology Project(Grant No.2017027)the Program for Outstanding Young Talents in Colleges and Universities of Anhui Province(Grant No.gxyq2018143)the Natural Science Foundation of Wanjiang University of Technology(Grant No.WG18030)
文摘This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.
文摘基于Web of Science与中国知网数据库旱涝急转相关文献,利用CiteSpace软件对年度发文量、关键词共现与突现进行分析,系统综述了旱涝急转的识别方法、成因及影响的研究进展,并展望今后旱涝急转相关研究问题。结果表明:①旱涝急转的发文量逐年增加,国内发文量占总发文量的53.2%,研究历经初步探索(2005—2010年)、快速发展(2011—2018年)和稳定发展(2019—2024年)三阶段;外文研究在2018年后加速增长至2023年达峰值。②国内聚焦时空演变与大气环流机制,关键词以趋势分析,降水,低频振荡为主;国外侧重气候变化背景下旱涝急转的变化与影响,热点集中于Yangtze River,vegetation等。③旱涝急转目前缺乏统一、全面的识别方法;其成因分析多局限于气象因素,对其他成因的研究较为缺乏;其灾害影响研究主要集中于农业与植被,对社会经济、城市生态等领域的探讨较为薄弱。
文摘Flood runoff models of urbanization from farmland based on the physical characteristics of a basin have been minimally used in previous research until today. Consequently, the runoff analysis has not been performed that is based on physical basis. Therefore, this research undertook flood discharge analysis from urbanization using the unit flood discharge concept that is enhanced the previous research. The study area was selected at the Kurabe River basin, which is 17.5 km2 in area having a very steep landscape. Twenty-one rainfall events at 10-minute intervals were selected, and five urbanized years were tested. From 1976 to 2009 during 35 years, the flood discharge increased approximately 2.0 times, in which residential areas increased from 23% to 48%;the maximum specific discharge was 21.7 m3·s-1·km-2 in a some block, which is a remarkably large amount. Furthermore, following issues investigated: changes in the hydrograph were associated with urbanization, the effect of a small reservoir aiming to cut down the peak discharge and the relationship between the unit discharge, and the relationship between our method and the discharge estimated by a “Rational Formula”. In particular, the effect of the small reservoir for flood control was found to be remarkably efficient. Finally, the validity of our method was confirmed at the study area in the observed discharge. This result is very useful for estimating runoff discharge changes by urbanization from farmland.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 50479017)the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No IRT071)
文摘A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.
文摘Flood is one of the most predominant disasters around the globe and frequently occurring phenomena in the northern part of Pakistan. In this study, the effects of various divisions of flood inventory and combinations of conditioning factors were assessed for the preparation of final susceptibility map. The flood inventory map was prepared for Charsadda by visual interpretation of Landsat-7 image alongside the field survey and a total of 161 flood locations were mapped. The flood inventory was subsequently divided into training and validation datasets, 129 (80%) and 112 (70%) locations for training the model and 32 (20%) and 49 (30%) for validation of the model. In this study, nine conditioning factors were used (Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Curvature, Plan curvature, Profile curvature, Proximity to river, roads, and Land use/land cover) for the development of flood susceptibility map. All the conditioning factors were correlated with flood inventory map using the information value method. The final susceptibility maps were validated using prediction rate and success rate curve. The results from validation showed that the areas under curve in the prediction rate curve for the models are: Model A (99.47%), Model B (95.04%), and Model C (94.06%), respectively. The Area under curve (AUC) in the success rate curve obtained for the three models are: Model A (95.03%), Model B (86.91%), and Model C (89.67%), respectively. Eventually, the susceptibility maps were classified into five susceptibility zones. The success rate and prediction rate curve indicated that model A has more accuracy in comparison to model B and model C;though, the results obtained from prediction and success rate curve indicated that all the models are reliable and has no significant difference between the susceptibility maps. Consequently, results obtained from this study are useful for researchers, disaster managers, and decision-makers to manage the flood-prone areas in the study area to mitigate the flood damages.
文摘The floods in river Mahanadi delta are due to either dam release of Hirakud or due to contribution of intercepted catchment between Hirakud dam and delta. It is seen from post-Hirakud periods (1958) that out of 19 floods 14 are due to intercepted catchment contribution. The existing flood forecasting systems are mostly for upstream catchment, forecasting the inflow to reservoir, whereas the downstream catchment is devoid of a sound flood forecasting system. Therefore, in this study an attempt has been made to develop a workable forecasting system for downstream catchment. Instead of taking the flow time series concurrent flood peaks of 12 years of base and forecasting stations with its corresponding travel time are considered for analysis. Both statistical method and ANN based approach are considered for finding the peak to reach at delta head with its corresponding travel time. The travel time has been finalized adopting clustering techniques, there by differentiating high, medium and low peaks. The method is simple and it does not take into consideration the rainfall and other factors in the intercepted catchment. A comparison between both methods are tested and it is found that the ANN methods are better beyond the calibration range over statistical method and the efficiency of either methods reduces as the prediction reach is extended. However, it is able to give the peak discharge at delta head before 24 hour to 37 hour for high to low peaks.
基金funded by the Major Scientific and Technological Project of Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (2012045)Research Project of Shandong Provincial Bureau of Geology & Mineral Resources (KY2018003+1 种基金 KY201933)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41772257 and 41472216)
文摘This study analyzes the groundwater environment in the Yangzhuang flood detention basin in Henan Province,China.A numerical model of groundwater flow is established based on the hydrogeological conditions in the basin and changes of groundwater level in the flood detention basin under flood detention and recession conditions.The results show that during flood diversion and storage,the groundwater level in the basin rises,mainly in four flood detention zones,with a maximum rise of 1.0 m.After the floodwater recedes,the groundwater level slowly drops in the detention basin along with flood discharge,finally returning to its original level fifty days later.This study indicates that groundwater recession in the flood detention basin is a slow process,where the rise of groundwater level may cause environmental problems such as soil swamping.
文摘The evaluation method, model and process for the flood and waterlogging disaster condition by GIS,RS and GPS technology and the method for setting up disaster condition database, dyke database and historical disaster damage database are presented. An index of flood damage degree(FDD) used to evaluate the relative degree of disaster loss and divide flood and waterlogging area is suggested. The value of flood damage degree can be calculated as follows :taking the various disaster losses of sample area in a base year as standard value and computing the ratios of various disaster loss values in different areas and years to the standard flood disaster loss values, then summing up the weighted ratios. The computed results are the value of flood damage degree in the every year. The macroscopic flood disaster distribution can be evaluated by the values of flood loss degree.
文摘适应城市化进程加速与气候变化,提高抵御洪涝灾害的能力是可持续发展的必由之路。从韧性视角出发,构建基于“自然-经济-社会-基础设施”的洪涝韧性评估框架,运用组合赋权-逼近理想解排序模型(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution,TOPSIS)评估2007—2022年南京都市圈城市洪涝韧性水平,并利用障碍度模型诊断抑制洪涝韧性提升的主要因素。结果表明:(1)都市圈城市洪涝韧性呈上升趋势,从较低水平转变为中等水平;(2)洪涝韧性空间分布呈现以南京为核心、向四周辐射递减的“中心-外围”特征;(3)研究时段末南京都市圈洪涝韧性的关键限制因素有河流调蓄能力、人口脆弱度、政府财政情况,植被覆盖率为部分城市潜在障碍因素。研究可为南京都市圈完善洪涝灾害防治体系、提升洪涝韧性提供参考。
