China's natural gas industry has entered a rapid development stage,and its supply,sales,storage and transport systems are continuously undergoing profound structural change.It is a major issue concerning national ...China's natural gas industry has entered a rapid development stage,and its supply,sales,storage and transport systems are continuously undergoing profound structural change.It is a major issue concerning national energy security to objectively grasp the current development situation and trend of natural gas industry and make scientific predictions.In this regard,through the analysis of global natural gas resources status,trade pattern and development trend,we reviewed the development process,current situation,trend and problems in natural gas industry in China,then made prospect analysis and judgment in terms of demand and supply,etc.,andfinally put forward some reasonable and sus-tainable strategic countermeasures and proposals.The following results were obtained.(1)The comprehensive energy elasticity coefficient method was adopted to predict that the natural gas consumption volume in 2030 will be about 650 billion cubic meters.(2)Affected by many factors such as energy supply side reform,industrialization and urbanization,the growth rate of domestic natural gas consumption is much higher than that of production and the development of natural gas industry still faces a series of problems.(3)It is necessary to strengthen the exploration and development of natural gas to ensure the increase of domestic natural gas storage and production.(4)Diversified import channels should be continuously expanded to disperse the risk of excessive growth of natural gas dependence on foreign countries.(5)The construction of national and dynamic interconnection system and hub should be accelerated.(6)China should rationalize the price mechanism of natural gas,gradually open the control on industrial and seasonal consumption,and strengthen the overall sales guidance in the national market.展开更多
Natural gas has become a transitional bridge from fossil to green and clean energy worldwide.The importance of natural gas utilization in energy structure optimization and green development is no exception for China.H...Natural gas has become a transitional bridge from fossil to green and clean energy worldwide.The importance of natural gas utilization in energy structure optimization and green development is no exception for China.However,the supply of China’s natural gas limits the country’s demand with three factors.(1)China’s natural gas resource is relatively rich,but its quality is poor with deep burial depth.Therefore,the annual plateau yield of natural gas cannot be high,with an estimated value of approximately 260-270 x 109 m3.(2)The demand for natural gas in China’s economic development is growing rapidly.The peak demand is estimated to be approximately 550-650 x 109 m3 per year or even higher.The import volume of natural gas will soon exceed that of domestic self-produced gas.(3)Natural gas is a necessity closely related to livelihood.Particularly,a shortage in natural gas supply affects social stability.Therefore,its external dependency should be under 50%and not exceed 60%.In this study,the future situation of China's natural gas is forecasted,and relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in accordance with research on China’s natural gas resource potential,production trend,supplydemand link,and gas supply safety factors.展开更多
China’s fossil energy is characterized by an abundance of coal and a relative lack of oil and natural gas.Developing a strategy in which coal can replace oil and natural gas is,therefore,a necessary and practical app...China’s fossil energy is characterized by an abundance of coal and a relative lack of oil and natural gas.Developing a strategy in which coal can replace oil and natural gas is,therefore,a necessary and practical approach to easing the excessive external dependence on oil and natural gas.Based on the perspective of energy security,this paper proposes a technical framework for defining the substitution of oil and natural gas with coal in China.In this framework,three substitution classifications and 11 industrialized technical routes are reviewed.Then,three scenarios(namely,the cautious scenario,baseline scenario,and positive scenario)are developed to estimate the potential of this strategy for 2020 and 2030.The results indicate that oil and natural gas replaced by coal will reach 67 to 81 Mt and 8.7 to 14.3 Gm^3 in 2020 and reach 93 to 138 Mt and 32.3 to 47.3 Gm^3 in 2030,respectively.By implementing this strategy,China’s external dependence on oil,natural gas,and primary energy is expected to be curbed at approximately 70%,40%,and 20%by 2030,respectively.This paper also demonstrates how coal,as a substitute for oil and natural gas,can contribute to carbon and pollution reduction and economic cost savings.It suggests a new direction for the development of the global coal industry and provides a crucial reference for energy transformation in China and other countries with similar energy situations.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Major Science and Technology Project“Enrichment Law and Key Exploration Technologies of Large Gas Fields”(No.:2016ZX05007-003)Major Technology Project of Petro China Company Limited“Key Exploration Technologies and Target Evaluation of Large-and Medium-sized Natural Gas Fields(Blocks)”(No.:2016B-06)Preliminary Project of Petro China Company Limited“Research on Accelerating Development Planning for Oil and Gas Exploration”(No.:T11813)。
文摘China's natural gas industry has entered a rapid development stage,and its supply,sales,storage and transport systems are continuously undergoing profound structural change.It is a major issue concerning national energy security to objectively grasp the current development situation and trend of natural gas industry and make scientific predictions.In this regard,through the analysis of global natural gas resources status,trade pattern and development trend,we reviewed the development process,current situation,trend and problems in natural gas industry in China,then made prospect analysis and judgment in terms of demand and supply,etc.,andfinally put forward some reasonable and sus-tainable strategic countermeasures and proposals.The following results were obtained.(1)The comprehensive energy elasticity coefficient method was adopted to predict that the natural gas consumption volume in 2030 will be about 650 billion cubic meters.(2)Affected by many factors such as energy supply side reform,industrialization and urbanization,the growth rate of domestic natural gas consumption is much higher than that of production and the development of natural gas industry still faces a series of problems.(3)It is necessary to strengthen the exploration and development of natural gas to ensure the increase of domestic natural gas storage and production.(4)Diversified import channels should be continuously expanded to disperse the risk of excessive growth of natural gas dependence on foreign countries.(5)The construction of national and dynamic interconnection system and hub should be accelerated.(6)China should rationalize the price mechanism of natural gas,gradually open the control on industrial and seasonal consumption,and strengthen the overall sales guidance in the national market.
文摘Natural gas has become a transitional bridge from fossil to green and clean energy worldwide.The importance of natural gas utilization in energy structure optimization and green development is no exception for China.However,the supply of China’s natural gas limits the country’s demand with three factors.(1)China’s natural gas resource is relatively rich,but its quality is poor with deep burial depth.Therefore,the annual plateau yield of natural gas cannot be high,with an estimated value of approximately 260-270 x 109 m3.(2)The demand for natural gas in China’s economic development is growing rapidly.The peak demand is estimated to be approximately 550-650 x 109 m3 per year or even higher.The import volume of natural gas will soon exceed that of domestic self-produced gas.(3)Natural gas is a necessity closely related to livelihood.Particularly,a shortage in natural gas supply affects social stability.Therefore,its external dependency should be under 50%and not exceed 60%.In this study,the future situation of China's natural gas is forecasted,and relevant countermeasures and suggestions are proposed in accordance with research on China’s natural gas resource potential,production trend,supplydemand link,and gas supply safety factors.
基金supported by the Major Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering,Optimization Study on China’s Energy Structure with Carbon Constraint(Grant No:2016-ZD-07)the Project of the China Knowledge Centre for Engineering Sciences and Technology in Chinese Academy of Engineering,Professional Knowledge Service System for Energy(Grant No.CKCEST-2019-2-6).
文摘China’s fossil energy is characterized by an abundance of coal and a relative lack of oil and natural gas.Developing a strategy in which coal can replace oil and natural gas is,therefore,a necessary and practical approach to easing the excessive external dependence on oil and natural gas.Based on the perspective of energy security,this paper proposes a technical framework for defining the substitution of oil and natural gas with coal in China.In this framework,three substitution classifications and 11 industrialized technical routes are reviewed.Then,three scenarios(namely,the cautious scenario,baseline scenario,and positive scenario)are developed to estimate the potential of this strategy for 2020 and 2030.The results indicate that oil and natural gas replaced by coal will reach 67 to 81 Mt and 8.7 to 14.3 Gm^3 in 2020 and reach 93 to 138 Mt and 32.3 to 47.3 Gm^3 in 2030,respectively.By implementing this strategy,China’s external dependence on oil,natural gas,and primary energy is expected to be curbed at approximately 70%,40%,and 20%by 2030,respectively.This paper also demonstrates how coal,as a substitute for oil and natural gas,can contribute to carbon and pollution reduction and economic cost savings.It suggests a new direction for the development of the global coal industry and provides a crucial reference for energy transformation in China and other countries with similar energy situations.
