Prognosis is a key technology to improve reliability,safety and maintainability of products,a lot of researchers have been devoted to this technology.But to improve the predict accuracy of remaining life of products h...Prognosis is a key technology to improve reliability,safety and maintainability of products,a lot of researchers have been devoted to this technology.But to improve the predict accuracy of remaining life of products has been difficult.To predict the lifetime specification of pneumatic cylinders with high reliability and long lifetime and small specimen,this paper put forward the prognosis algorithm based on the path classification and estimation（PACE） model.PACE model is based entirely on failure data instead of failure threshold.Pneumatic cylinders normally characterize with failure mechanism wear and tear.Since the minimum working pressure increases with the number of working cycles,the minimum working pressure is chosen as degradation signal.PACE model is fundamentally composed of two operations：path classification and remaining useful life（RUL） estimation.Path classification is to classify a current degradation path as belonging to one or more of previously collected exemplary degradation paths.RUL estimation is to use the resulting memberships to estimate the remaining useful life.In order for verification and validation of PACE prognostic method,six pneumatic cylinders are tested.The test data is analyzed by PACE prognostics.It is found that the PACE based prognosis method has higher prediction accuracy and smaller variance and PACE model is significantly outperform population based prognostics especially for small specimen condition.PACE model based method solved the problem of prediction accuracy for small specimen pneumatic cylinders＇ prognosis.展开更多
Objective To develop an individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on spatial distribution of noise in order to provide reference for occupational health management and hearing loss risk assessment caused b...Objective To develop an individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on spatial distribution of noise in order to provide reference for occupational health management and hearing loss risk assessment caused by noise in workplace.Methods From July 2018 to October 2019,10 noise-exposed positions and 48 employees in 3 high-noise workplaces of a manufacturing enterprise in Sichuan Province were selected as the research subjects.Occupational health survey,fixed-point measurement of workplace noise and individual noise measurement were used to obtain noise intensity and employee exposure information.The mean noise intensity and the corresponding exposure time were weighed to estimate the individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on the spatial distribution of workplace noise,and the paired t-test was used to evaluate the accuracy of the individual noise exposure dose estimate(8 h equivalent sound level,Lex,8 h)based on the spatial distribution of workplace,noise and the measured value of individualnoise exposure dose.And the least square regression model was used to correct it.Results The daily noise exposure dose of 44(91.7%)of 48 workers in 10 types of work in 3 sites of the manufacturing enterprise exceeded the standard,and the maximum noise exposure intensity was up to 108.3 dB(A).The measured value of individual noise exposure dose was higher than Lex,s h,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.001).The noise difference distribution was mostly positive and symmetrical(P=0.958).The measured noise exposure dose of 6 out of 10 work types in 3 sites was higher than Lex,8 h(all P<0.05),and there was a linear correlation between the measured dose and Lex.8 h(r=0.373,P<0.05).Considering the influence of systematic error and the construction,diagnosis and screening of adaptive assessment model,an individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on the spatial distribution of workplace noise was finally obtained:y=0.574x+45.250,where y was the measured value of individual noise exposure dose,x was Lex,s h value.Conclusion The high noise hazard in manufacturing industry is more serious,and the noise exposure assessment of single fixed-point detection is relatively rough.The individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on the spatial distribution of workplace noise has a certain role in the occupational health managementofworkplacenoise hazard in manufacturing industry.展开更多
The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of ...The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.展开更多
The research on the relationship between mechanization level in planting industry and labor demand was carried out based on the present literatures.The former estimation model of labor demand in planting industry was ...The research on the relationship between mechanization level in planting industry and labor demand was carried out based on the present literatures.The former estimation model of labor demand in planting industry was established without analyzing the effects of planting structure on labor demand in planting industry.The purpose of the research is to develop and perfect the theory of estimating both labor demand and rural surplus labor in planting industry,then to provide some theoretical references for scientific estimation.The model established in this research can be used to calculate not only the amount of current labor demand,but also the demand in the various moment of future according to forecasted mechanization level and cultivated areas.Furthermore,it was explored how to obtain the indexes of cultivated areas,mechanization level and the average cultivated area that each labor can burden when the mechanization level is 0 and 100%.According to statistics principle,the methods of inspection to eliminate abnormal data and data processing were given in order to make the data more credible.Finally,an example was presented for demonstration purposes.展开更多
The equations for predicting the electrical conductivities of red grape juice at different concentrations have been evaluated in this study.Three samples of red grape juice having concentrations of 10.5,12.5 and 14.5&...The equations for predicting the electrical conductivities of red grape juice at different concentrations have been evaluated in this study.Three samples of red grape juice having concentrations of 10.5,12.5 and 14.5°Brix were ohmically heated by applying three different voltage gradients(10,12 and 15 V/cm)in the temperature range of 25-80℃.The mathematical models using multiple linear regression analysis indicated that electrical conductivity depended on temperature and concentration.The predictions of electrical conductivities using the mathematical models was found to be highly accurate with R2 value of 0.9975 when compared with the experimental data of red grape juice with concentration of 11.5°Brix.The reducing chi-square(χ^(2))and the root mean square error(RMSE)from the mathematical models were calculated and compared with the experimental data.As the results,multiple linear regressions on the coefficients of the mathematical model of electrical conductivity prediction have given highest values of the R2 and lowestχ^(2)and RMSE so the established model was confirmed as highly accurate when estimating electrical conductivities of red grape juice.展开更多
This research proposes an artificial neural network(ANN)-based repair and maintenance(R&M)cost estimation model for agricultural machinery.The proposed ANN model can achieve high estimation accuracy with small dat...This research proposes an artificial neural network(ANN)-based repair and maintenance(R&M)cost estimation model for agricultural machinery.The proposed ANN model can achieve high estimation accuracy with small data requirement.In the study,the proposed ANN model is implemented to estimate the R&M costs using a sample of locally-made rice combine harvesters.The model inputs are geographical regions,harvest area,and curve fitting coefficients related to historical cost data;and the ANN output is the estimated R&M cost.Multilayer feed-forward is adopted as the processing algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation learning as the training algorithm.The R&M costs are estimated using the ANN-based model,and results are compared with those of conventional mathematical estimation model.The results reveal that the percentage error between the conventional and ANN-based estimation models is below 1%,indicating the proposed ANN model’s high predictive accuracy.The proposed ANN-based model is useful for setting the service rates of agricultural machinery,given the significance of R&M cost in profitability.The novelty of this research lies in the use of curve-fitting coefficients in the ANN-based estimation model to improve estimation accuracy.Besides,the proposed ANN model could be further developed into web-based applications using a programming language to enable ease of use and greater user accessibility.Moreover,with minor modifications,the ANN estimation model is also applicable to other geographical areas and tractors or combine harvesters of different countries of origin.展开更多
In view of the poor precision of the theoretical model of labor demand estimation,it is difficult to estimate and predict the actual production problems accurately.Based on the actual production conditions and the rel...In view of the poor precision of the theoretical model of labor demand estimation,it is difficult to estimate and predict the actual production problems accurately.Based on the actual production conditions and the relationship between the degree of mechanization of planting and the demand of labor force,this study established an estimation model for the labor demand of planting industry considering the factors of planting structure and mechanization degree.In order to ensure high reliability of data,the method of checking out abnormal data was adopted to obtain the cultivated land area index when the mechanization degree is from 0 to 100%.Taking Suihua region(Heilongjiang Province,China)as an example,the theory of the research was analyzed and applied.This study accessed to the data of cultivated land area per labor can afford when the mechanization level in Suihua area were 0 and 100%respectively through the investigation,and the average cultivated land area data of each labor force in two cases were sorted out and the abnormal data were eliminated at the same time.Finally,using the derived model,the data obtained and the mechanization level and cultivated land area of Suihua in the future,the labor demand amount in Suihua area from 2015 to 2019 were predicted.The model established in this study can be used to calculate the quantity of both current labor demand in planting industry and the labor demand in the various moments in the future through forecasting the future mechanization level and cultivated area which are the two main factors influencing the quantity of labor demand in planting structure.展开更多
We develop an interconnect crosstalk estimation model on the assumption of linearity for CMOS device. First, we analyze the terminal response of RC model on the worst condition from theS field to the time domain. The ...We develop an interconnect crosstalk estimation model on the assumption of linearity for CMOS device. First, we analyze the terminal response of RC model on the worst condition from theS field to the time domain. The exact 3 order coefficients inS field are obtained due to the interconnect tree model. Based on this, a crosstalk peak estimation formula is presented. Unlike other crosstalk equations in the literature, this formula is only used coupled capacitance and grand capacitance as parameter. Experimental results show that, compared with the SPICE results, the estimation formulae are simple and accurate. So the model is expected to be used in such fields as layout-driven logic and high level synthesis, performance-driven floorplanning and interconnect planning.展开更多
Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by...Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by Jayaweera and Mikkelsen. The results showed that the model could estimate and predict wellammonia volatilization loss also in case of SFFM addition. There was an emended factor B introduced tothe model calculation when SFPM was used. Simulated calculation showed that the effect of factor B onNHa loss was obvious. The value of B was governed by SFFM and the environmental conditions. Sensitivityanalysis suggested that pH was the main factor coatrolling NH3 volatilization loss from the floodwater.展开更多
An airship model is made-up of aerostatic,aerodynamic,dynamic,and propulsive forces and torques.Besides others,the computation of aerodynamic forces and torques is difficult.Usually,wind tunnel experimentation and pot...An airship model is made-up of aerostatic,aerodynamic,dynamic,and propulsive forces and torques.Besides others,the computation of aerodynamic forces and torques is difficult.Usually,wind tunnel experimentation and potential flow theory are used for their calculations.However,the limitations of these methods pose difficulties in their accurate calculation.In this work,an online estimation scheme based on unscented Kalman filter(UKF)is proposed for their calculation.The proposed method introduces six auxiliary states for the complete aerodynamic model.UKF uses an extended model and provides an estimate of a complete state vector along with auxiliary states.The proposed method uses the minimum auxiliary state variables for the approximation of the complete aerodynamic model that makes it computationally less intensive.UKF estimation performance is evaluated by developing a nonlinear simulation environment for University of Engineering and Technology,Taxila(UETT)airship.Estimator performance is validated by performing the error analysis based on estimation error and 2-σ uncertainty bound.For the same problem,the extended Kalman filter(EKF)is also implemented and its results are compared with UKF.The simulation results show that UKF successfully estimates the forces and torques due to the aerodynamic model with small estimation error and the comparative analysis with EKF shows that UKF improves the estimation results and also it is more suitable for the under-consideration problem.展开更多
For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For ...For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time.Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation(Fast MMAE)algorithm,the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration.Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight(LOS)separation angle of two interceptors,an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance.Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion,Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately.The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.展开更多
The variable-structure multiple-model（VSMM）approach,one of the multiple-model（MM）methods,is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties.The model sequence set adaptation（MSA）is ...The variable-structure multiple-model（VSMM）approach,one of the multiple-model（MM）methods,is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties.The model sequence set adaptation（MSA）is the key to design a better VSMM.However,MSA methods in the literature have big room to improve both theoretically and practically.To this end,we propose a feedback structure based entropy approach that could fnd the model sequence sets with the smallest size under certain conditions.The fltered data are fed back in real time and can be used by the minimum entropy（ME）based VSMM algorithms,i.e.,MEVSMM.Firstly,the full Markov chains are used to achieve optimal solutions.Secondly,the myopic method together with particle flter（PF）and the challenge match algorithm are also used to achieve sub-optimal solutions,a trade-off between practicability and optimality.The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only refned model sets but also a good robustness margin and very high accuracy.展开更多
An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only smal...An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.展开更多
Estimation of state-of-charge and state-of-health for batteries is one of the most important feature for modern battery management system(BMS).Robust or adaptive methods are the most investigated because a more intell...Estimation of state-of-charge and state-of-health for batteries is one of the most important feature for modern battery management system(BMS).Robust or adaptive methods are the most investigated because a more intelligent BMS could lead to sensible cost reduction of the entire battery system.We propose a new robust method,called ERMES(extendible range multi-model estimator),for determining an estimated state-of-charge(SoC),an estimated state-of-health(SoH)and a prediction of uncertainty of the estimates(state-of-uncertainty—SoU),thanks to which it is possible to monitor the validity of the estimates and adjust it,extending the robustness against a wider range of uncertainty,if necessary.Specifically,a finite number of models in state-space form are considered starting from a modified Thevenin battery model.Each model is characterized by a hypothesis of SoH value.An iterated extended Kalman filter(EKF)is then applied to each model in parallel,estimating for each one the SoC state variable.Residual errors are then considered to fuse both the estimated SoC and SoH from the bank of EKF,yielding the overall SoC and SoH estimates,respectively.In addition,a figure of uncertainty of such estimates is also provided.展开更多
The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncer...The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.展开更多
A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Mar...A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.展开更多
A Recent paper by Ma et al.,claims to estimate the state of charge of Lithium-ion batteries with a fractionalorder impedance model including a Warburg and a constant phase element(CPE)with a maximum error of 0.5%[1].T...A Recent paper by Ma et al.,claims to estimate the state of charge of Lithium-ion batteries with a fractionalorder impedance model including a Warburg and a constant phase element(CPE)with a maximum error of 0.5%[1].The proposed equivalent circuit model from[1]is reproduced in Fig.1.展开更多
Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on t...Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.展开更多
A new relative efficiency of parameter estimation for generalized Gauss-Markov linear model was proposed. Its lower bound was also derived. Its properties were explored in comparison with three currently very popular ...A new relative efficiency of parameter estimation for generalized Gauss-Markov linear model was proposed. Its lower bound was also derived. Its properties were explored in comparison with three currently very popular relative efficiencies. The new relative efficiency not only reflects sensitively the error and loss caused by the substitution of the least square estimator for the best linear unbiased estimator, but also overcomes the disadvantage of weak dependence on the design matrix.展开更多
Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of...Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.展开更多
基金supported by the Laboratory of Aviation Safety Technical Analysis and Appraisal of China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology(Grant No. 2009-02)
文摘Prognosis is a key technology to improve reliability,safety and maintainability of products,a lot of researchers have been devoted to this technology.But to improve the predict accuracy of remaining life of products has been difficult.To predict the lifetime specification of pneumatic cylinders with high reliability and long lifetime and small specimen,this paper put forward the prognosis algorithm based on the path classification and estimation（PACE） model.PACE model is based entirely on failure data instead of failure threshold.Pneumatic cylinders normally characterize with failure mechanism wear and tear.Since the minimum working pressure increases with the number of working cycles,the minimum working pressure is chosen as degradation signal.PACE model is fundamentally composed of two operations：path classification and remaining useful life（RUL） estimation.Path classification is to classify a current degradation path as belonging to one or more of previously collected exemplary degradation paths.RUL estimation is to use the resulting memberships to estimate the remaining useful life.In order for verification and validation of PACE prognostic method,six pneumatic cylinders are tested.The test data is analyzed by PACE prognostics.It is found that the PACE based prognosis method has higher prediction accuracy and smaller variance and PACE model is significantly outperform population based prognostics especially for small specimen condition.PACE model based method solved the problem of prediction accuracy for small specimen pneumatic cylinders＇ prognosis.
文摘Objective To develop an individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on spatial distribution of noise in order to provide reference for occupational health management and hearing loss risk assessment caused by noise in workplace.Methods From July 2018 to October 2019,10 noise-exposed positions and 48 employees in 3 high-noise workplaces of a manufacturing enterprise in Sichuan Province were selected as the research subjects.Occupational health survey,fixed-point measurement of workplace noise and individual noise measurement were used to obtain noise intensity and employee exposure information.The mean noise intensity and the corresponding exposure time were weighed to estimate the individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on the spatial distribution of workplace noise,and the paired t-test was used to evaluate the accuracy of the individual noise exposure dose estimate(8 h equivalent sound level,Lex,8 h)based on the spatial distribution of workplace,noise and the measured value of individualnoise exposure dose.And the least square regression model was used to correct it.Results The daily noise exposure dose of 44(91.7%)of 48 workers in 10 types of work in 3 sites of the manufacturing enterprise exceeded the standard,and the maximum noise exposure intensity was up to 108.3 dB(A).The measured value of individual noise exposure dose was higher than Lex,s h,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.001).The noise difference distribution was mostly positive and symmetrical(P=0.958).The measured noise exposure dose of 6 out of 10 work types in 3 sites was higher than Lex,8 h(all P<0.05),and there was a linear correlation between the measured dose and Lex.8 h(r=0.373,P<0.05).Considering the influence of systematic error and the construction,diagnosis and screening of adaptive assessment model,an individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on the spatial distribution of workplace noise was finally obtained:y=0.574x+45.250,where y was the measured value of individual noise exposure dose,x was Lex,s h value.Conclusion The high noise hazard in manufacturing industry is more serious,and the noise exposure assessment of single fixed-point detection is relatively rough.The individual noise exposure dose estimation model based on the spatial distribution of workplace noise has a certain role in the occupational health managementofworkplacenoise hazard in manufacturing industry.
基金supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation of Ministry of Education(No.GLAB 2024ZR03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42407248)+2 种基金the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program(Natural Science)(No.QKHJC-[2023]-YB066)the Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB04-02)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31071331)National Social Science Foundation of China(13BJY098).
文摘The research on the relationship between mechanization level in planting industry and labor demand was carried out based on the present literatures.The former estimation model of labor demand in planting industry was established without analyzing the effects of planting structure on labor demand in planting industry.The purpose of the research is to develop and perfect the theory of estimating both labor demand and rural surplus labor in planting industry,then to provide some theoretical references for scientific estimation.The model established in this research can be used to calculate not only the amount of current labor demand,but also the demand in the various moment of future according to forecasted mechanization level and cultivated areas.Furthermore,it was explored how to obtain the indexes of cultivated areas,mechanization level and the average cultivated area that each labor can burden when the mechanization level is 0 and 100%.According to statistics principle,the methods of inspection to eliminate abnormal data and data processing were given in order to make the data more credible.Finally,an example was presented for demonstration purposes.
文摘The equations for predicting the electrical conductivities of red grape juice at different concentrations have been evaluated in this study.Three samples of red grape juice having concentrations of 10.5,12.5 and 14.5°Brix were ohmically heated by applying three different voltage gradients(10,12 and 15 V/cm)in the temperature range of 25-80℃.The mathematical models using multiple linear regression analysis indicated that electrical conductivity depended on temperature and concentration.The predictions of electrical conductivities using the mathematical models was found to be highly accurate with R2 value of 0.9975 when compared with the experimental data of red grape juice with concentration of 11.5°Brix.The reducing chi-square(χ^(2))and the root mean square error(RMSE)from the mathematical models were calculated and compared with the experimental data.As the results,multiple linear regressions on the coefficients of the mathematical model of electrical conductivity prediction have given highest values of the R2 and lowestχ^(2)and RMSE so the established model was confirmed as highly accurate when estimating electrical conductivities of red grape juice.
基金supported by the Fundamental Fund of Khon Kaen University(KKU).
文摘This research proposes an artificial neural network(ANN)-based repair and maintenance(R&M)cost estimation model for agricultural machinery.The proposed ANN model can achieve high estimation accuracy with small data requirement.In the study,the proposed ANN model is implemented to estimate the R&M costs using a sample of locally-made rice combine harvesters.The model inputs are geographical regions,harvest area,and curve fitting coefficients related to historical cost data;and the ANN output is the estimated R&M cost.Multilayer feed-forward is adopted as the processing algorithm and Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation learning as the training algorithm.The R&M costs are estimated using the ANN-based model,and results are compared with those of conventional mathematical estimation model.The results reveal that the percentage error between the conventional and ANN-based estimation models is below 1%,indicating the proposed ANN model’s high predictive accuracy.The proposed ANN-based model is useful for setting the service rates of agricultural machinery,given the significance of R&M cost in profitability.The novelty of this research lies in the use of curve-fitting coefficients in the ANN-based estimation model to improve estimation accuracy.Besides,the proposed ANN model could be further developed into web-based applications using a programming language to enable ease of use and greater user accessibility.Moreover,with minor modifications,the ANN estimation model is also applicable to other geographical areas and tractors or combine harvesters of different countries of origin.
基金This work was supported by National Social Science Foundation of China(13BJY098)Social Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(16JYB06).
文摘In view of the poor precision of the theoretical model of labor demand estimation,it is difficult to estimate and predict the actual production problems accurately.Based on the actual production conditions and the relationship between the degree of mechanization of planting and the demand of labor force,this study established an estimation model for the labor demand of planting industry considering the factors of planting structure and mechanization degree.In order to ensure high reliability of data,the method of checking out abnormal data was adopted to obtain the cultivated land area index when the mechanization degree is from 0 to 100%.Taking Suihua region(Heilongjiang Province,China)as an example,the theory of the research was analyzed and applied.This study accessed to the data of cultivated land area per labor can afford when the mechanization level in Suihua area were 0 and 100%respectively through the investigation,and the average cultivated land area data of each labor force in two cases were sorted out and the abnormal data were eliminated at the same time.Finally,using the derived model,the data obtained and the mechanization level and cultivated land area of Suihua in the future,the labor demand amount in Suihua area from 2015 to 2019 were predicted.The model established in this study can be used to calculate the quantity of both current labor demand in planting industry and the labor demand in the various moments in the future through forecasting the future mechanization level and cultivated area which are the two main factors influencing the quantity of labor demand in planting structure.
基金SupportedbytheNationalHighTechnologyResearchandDevelopmentProgramofChina (863Plan) (863 SOC Y 3 3 2 )
文摘We develop an interconnect crosstalk estimation model on the assumption of linearity for CMOS device. First, we analyze the terminal response of RC model on the worst condition from theS field to the time domain. The exact 3 order coefficients inS field are obtained due to the interconnect tree model. Based on this, a crosstalk peak estimation formula is presented. Unlike other crosstalk equations in the literature, this formula is only used coupled capacitance and grand capacitance as parameter. Experimental results show that, compared with the SPICE results, the estimation formulae are simple and accurate. So the model is expected to be used in such fields as layout-driven logic and high level synthesis, performance-driven floorplanning and interconnect planning.
文摘Greenhouse experiments were conducted to determine the ammonia volatilization loss with or withoutapplication of surface film-forming material (SFFM). Ammonia volatilization loss was estimated by the modeldeveloped by Jayaweera and Mikkelsen. The results showed that the model could estimate and predict wellammonia volatilization loss also in case of SFFM addition. There was an emended factor B introduced tothe model calculation when SFPM was used. Simulated calculation showed that the effect of factor B onNHa loss was obvious. The value of B was governed by SFFM and the environmental conditions. Sensitivityanalysis suggested that pH was the main factor coatrolling NH3 volatilization loss from the floodwater.
文摘An airship model is made-up of aerostatic,aerodynamic,dynamic,and propulsive forces and torques.Besides others,the computation of aerodynamic forces and torques is difficult.Usually,wind tunnel experimentation and potential flow theory are used for their calculations.However,the limitations of these methods pose difficulties in their accurate calculation.In this work,an online estimation scheme based on unscented Kalman filter(UKF)is proposed for their calculation.The proposed method introduces six auxiliary states for the complete aerodynamic model.UKF uses an extended model and provides an estimate of a complete state vector along with auxiliary states.The proposed method uses the minimum auxiliary state variables for the approximation of the complete aerodynamic model that makes it computationally less intensive.UKF estimation performance is evaluated by developing a nonlinear simulation environment for University of Engineering and Technology,Taxila(UETT)airship.Estimator performance is validated by performing the error analysis based on estimation error and 2-σ uncertainty bound.For the same problem,the extended Kalman filter(EKF)is also implemented and its results are compared with UKF.The simulation results show that UKF successfully estimates the forces and torques due to the aerodynamic model with small estimation error and the comparative analysis with EKF shows that UKF improves the estimation results and also it is more suitable for the under-consideration problem.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(NNSF)of China under grant no.61673386,62073335the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2017M613201,2019T120944).
文摘For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target,the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target,which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time.Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation(Fast MMAE)algorithm,the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration.Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight(LOS)separation angle of two interceptors,an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance.Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion,Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately.The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.
基金supported in part by National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB821200)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61174024)
文摘The variable-structure multiple-model（VSMM）approach,one of the multiple-model（MM）methods,is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties.The model sequence set adaptation（MSA）is the key to design a better VSMM.However,MSA methods in the literature have big room to improve both theoretically and practically.To this end,we propose a feedback structure based entropy approach that could fnd the model sequence sets with the smallest size under certain conditions.The fltered data are fed back in real time and can be used by the minimum entropy（ME）based VSMM algorithms,i.e.,MEVSMM.Firstly,the full Markov chains are used to achieve optimal solutions.Secondly,the myopic method together with particle flter（PF）and the challenge match algorithm are also used to achieve sub-optimal solutions,a trade-off between practicability and optimality.The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only refned model sets but also a good robustness margin and very high accuracy.
基金Funding of Jiangsu Innovation Program for Graduate Education (CXZZ11_0193)NUAA Research Funding (NJ2010009)
文摘An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.
文摘Estimation of state-of-charge and state-of-health for batteries is one of the most important feature for modern battery management system(BMS).Robust or adaptive methods are the most investigated because a more intelligent BMS could lead to sensible cost reduction of the entire battery system.We propose a new robust method,called ERMES(extendible range multi-model estimator),for determining an estimated state-of-charge(SoC),an estimated state-of-health(SoH)and a prediction of uncertainty of the estimates(state-of-uncertainty—SoU),thanks to which it is possible to monitor the validity of the estimates and adjust it,extending the robustness against a wider range of uncertainty,if necessary.Specifically,a finite number of models in state-space form are considered starting from a modified Thevenin battery model.Each model is characterized by a hypothesis of SoH value.An iterated extended Kalman filter(EKF)is then applied to each model in parallel,estimating for each one the SoC state variable.Residual errors are then considered to fuse both the estimated SoC and SoH from the bank of EKF,yielding the overall SoC and SoH estimates,respectively.In addition,a figure of uncertainty of such estimates is also provided.
文摘The robotic airship can provide a promising aerostatic platform for many potential applications.These applications require a precise autonomous trajectory tracking control for airship.Airship has a nonlinear and uncertain dynamics.It is prone to wind disturbances that offer a challenge for a trajectory tracking control design.This paper addresses the airship trajectory tracking problem having time varying reference path.A lumped parameter estimation approach under model uncertainties and wind disturbances is opted against distributed parameters.It uses extended Kalman filter(EKF)for uncertainty and disturbance estimation.The estimated parameters are used by sliding mode controller(SMC)for ultimate control of airship trajectory tracking.This comprehensive algorithm,EKF based SMC(ESMC),is used as a robust solution to track airship trajectory.The proposed estimator provides the estimates of wind disturbances as well as model uncertainty due to the mass matrix variations and aerodynamic model inaccuracies.The stability and convergence of the proposed method are investigated using the Lyapunov stability analysis.The simulation results show that the proposed method efficiently tracks the desired trajectory.The method solves the stability,convergence,and chattering problem of SMC under model uncertainties and wind disturbances.
文摘A multi-constituent water quality model is presented,Which relates carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (CBOD),amonia (NH3-N), nitrite(NO2-N), nitrate(NO3-N) and dissolvedoxygen(DO). The parameters are solved by Marquardt Method (i. e.,Dampled Least Square Method) while initial values inoptimization are produced by Monte-Carlo Method. The Potential ofthe method as a parameter estimation aid is demonstrated for theapplication to the Liangyi Rver, JiangSu Province of China and by aspecial comparison with Gauss Method.
文摘A Recent paper by Ma et al.,claims to estimate the state of charge of Lithium-ion batteries with a fractionalorder impedance model including a Warburg and a constant phase element(CPE)with a maximum error of 0.5%[1].The proposed equivalent circuit model from[1]is reproduced in Fig.1.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61070009)the National Science and Technology Support Plan (2012BAH25F02)+2 种基金the Project of Jingdezhen Science and Technology Bureau (2011-1-47)the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (2009GZS0065)the Youth Science Foundation of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Education (GJJ12514)
文摘Parameter estimation plays a critical role for the application and development of S-shaped growth model in the agricultural sciences and others.In this paper,a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm based on the diffusion phenomenon（DPPSO） was employed to estimate the parameters for this model.Under the sense of least squares,the parameter estimation problem of S-shaped growth model,taking the Gompertz and Logistic models for example,is transformed into a multi-dimensional function optimization problem.The results show that the DPPSO algorithm can effectively estimate the parameters of the S-shaped growth model.
文摘A new relative efficiency of parameter estimation for generalized Gauss-Markov linear model was proposed. Its lower bound was also derived. Its properties were explored in comparison with three currently very popular relative efficiencies. The new relative efficiency not only reflects sensitively the error and loss caused by the substitution of the least square estimator for the best linear unbiased estimator, but also overcomes the disadvantage of weak dependence on the design matrix.
基金The part of the project "Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System(KOOS),Phase 2",funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries,Koreathe part of the project entitled "Cooperative Project on Korea-China Bilateral Committee on Ocean Science",funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries,Korea and China-Korea Joint Research Ocean Research Center
文摘Cochlodinium polykrikoides is a notoriously harmful algal species that inflicts severe damage on the aquacultures of the coastal seas of Korea and Japan. Information on their expected movement tracks and boundaries of influence is very useful and important for the effective establishment of a reduction plan. In general, the information is supported by a red-tide（a.k.a algal bloom） model. The performance of the model is highly dependent on the accuracy of parameters, which are the coefficients of functions approximating the biological growth and loss patterns of the C. polykrikoides. These parameters have been estimated using the bioassay data composed of growth-limiting factor and net growth rate value pairs. In the case of the C. polykrikoides, the parameters are different from each other in accordance with the used data because the bioassay data are sufficient compared to the other algal species. The parameters estimated by one specific dataset can be viewed as locally-optimized because they are adjusted only by that dataset. In cases where the other one data set is used, the estimation error might be considerable. In this study, the parameters are estimated by all available data sets without the use of only one specific data set and thus can be considered globally optimized. The cost function for the optimization is defined as the integrated mean squared estimation error, i.e., the difference between the values of the experimental and estimated rates. Based on quantitative error analysis, the root-mean squared errors of the global parameters show smaller values, approximately 25%–50%, than the values of the local parameters. In addition, bias is removed completely in the case of the globally estimated parameters. The parameter sets can be used as the reference default values of a red-tide model because they are optimal and representative. However, additional tuning of the parameters using the in-situ monitoring data is highly required.As opposed to the bioassay data, it is necessary because the bioassay data have limitations in terms of the in-situ coastal conditions.
