Small-drone technology has opened a range of new applications for aerial transportation. These drones leverage the Internet of Things (IoT) to offer cross-location services for navigation. However, they are susceptibl...Small-drone technology has opened a range of new applications for aerial transportation. These drones leverage the Internet of Things (IoT) to offer cross-location services for navigation. However, they are susceptible to security and privacy threats due to hardware and architectural issues. Although small drones hold promise for expansion in both civil and defense sectors, they have safety, security, and privacy threats. Addressing these challenges is crucial to maintaining the security and uninterrupted operations of these drones. In this regard, this study investigates security, and preservation concerning both the drones and Internet of Drones (IoD), emphasizing the significance of creating drone networks that are secure and can robustly withstand interceptions and intrusions. The proposed framework incorporates a weighted voting ensemble model comprising three convolutional neural network (CNN) models to enhance intrusion detection within the network. The employed CNNs are customized 1D models optimized to obtain better performance. The output from these CNNs is voted using a weighted criterion using a 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 ratio for three CNNs, respectively. Experiments involve using multiple benchmark datasets, achieving an impressive accuracy of up to 99.89% on drone data. The proposed model shows promising results concerning precision, recall, and F1 as indicated by their obtained values of 99.92%, 99.98%, and 99.97%, respectively. Furthermore, cross-validation and performance comparison with existing works is also carried out. Findings indicate that the proposed approach offers a prospective solution for detecting security threats for aerial systems and satellite systems with high accuracy.展开更多
With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration predict...With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.展开更多
6G is desired to support more intelligence networks and this trend attaches importance to the self-healing capability if degradation emerges in the cellular networks.As a primary component of selfhealing networks,faul...6G is desired to support more intelligence networks and this trend attaches importance to the self-healing capability if degradation emerges in the cellular networks.As a primary component of selfhealing networks,fault detection is investigated in this paper.Considering the fast response and low timeand-computational consumption,it is the first time that the Online Broad Learning System(OBLS)is applied to identify outages in cellular networks.In addition,the Automatic-constructed Online Broad Learning System(AOBLS)is put forward to rationalize its structure and consequently avoid over-fitting and under-fitting.Furthermore,a multi-layer classification structure is proposed to further improve the classification performance.To face the challenges caused by imbalanced data in fault detection problems,a novel weighting strategy is derived to achieve the Multilayer Automatic-constructed Weighted Online Broad Learning System(MAWOBLS)and ensemble learning with retrained Support Vector Machine(SVM),denoted as EMAWOBLS,for superior treatment with this imbalance issue.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has excellent performance in detecting faults with satisfactory time usage.展开更多
Distribution transformers play a vital role in power distribution systems,and their reliable operation is crucial for grid stability.This study presents a simulation-based framework for active fault diagnosis and earl...Distribution transformers play a vital role in power distribution systems,and their reliable operation is crucial for grid stability.This study presents a simulation-based framework for active fault diagnosis and early warning of distribution transformers,integrating Sample Ensemble Learning(SEL)with a Self-Optimizing Support Vector Machine(SO-SVM).The SEL technique enhances data diversity and mitigates class imbalance,while SO-SVM adaptively tunes its hyperparameters to improve classification accuracy.A comprehensive transformer model was developed in MATLAB/Simulink to simulate diverse fault scenarios,including inter-turn winding faults,core saturation,and thermal aging.Feature vectors were extracted from voltage,current,and temperature measurements to train and validate the proposed hybrid model.Quantitative analysis shows that the SEL–SO-SVM framework achieves a classification accuracy of 97.8%,a precision of 96.5%,and an F1-score of 97.2%.Beyond classification,the model effectively identified incipient faults,providing an early warning lead time of up to 2.5 s before significant deviations in operational parameters.This predictive capability underscores its potential for preventing catastrophic transformer failures and enabling timely maintenance actions.The proposed approach demonstrates strong applicability for enhancing the reliability and operational safety of distribution transformers in simulated environments,offering a promising foundation for future real-time and field-level implementations.展开更多
Background:Stomach cancer(SC)is one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide due to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment.The transcriptomic,epigenomic,and proteomic,etc.,omics datasets generated by high-through...Background:Stomach cancer(SC)is one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide due to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment.The transcriptomic,epigenomic,and proteomic,etc.,omics datasets generated by high-throughput sequencing technology have become prominent in biomedical research,and they reveal molecular aspects of cancer diagnosis and therapy.Despite the development of advanced sequencing technology,the presence of high-dimensionality in multi-omics data makes it challenging to interpret the data.Methods:In this study,we introduce RankXLAN,an explainable ensemble-based multi-omics framework that integrates feature selection(FS),ensemble learning,bioinformatics,and in-silico validation for robust biomarker detection,potential therapeutic drug-repurposing candidates’identification,and classification of SC.To enhance the interpretability of the model,we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence(SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis),as well as accuracy,precision,F1-score,recall,cross-validation,specificity,likelihood ratio(LR)+,LR−,and Youden index results.Results:The experimental results showed that the top four FS algorithms achieved improved results when applied to the ensemble learning classification model.The proposed ensemble model produced an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.994 for gene expression,0.97 for methylation,and 0.96 for miRNA expression data.Through the integration of bioinformatics and ML approach of the transcriptomic and epigenomic multi-omics dataset,we identified potential marker genes,namely,UBE2D2,HPCAL4,IGHA1,DPT,and FN3K.In-silico molecular docking revealed a strong binding affinity between ANKRD13C and the FDA-approved drug Everolimus(binding affinity−10.1 kcal/mol),identifying ANKRD13C as a potential therapeutic drug-repurposing target for SC.Conclusion:The proposed framework RankXLAN outperforms other existing frameworks for serum biomarker identification,therapeutic target identification,and SC classification with multi-omics datasets.展开更多
The surge in smishing attacks underscores the urgent need for robust,real-time detection systems powered by advanced deep learning models.This paper introduces PhishNet,a novel ensemble learning framework that integra...The surge in smishing attacks underscores the urgent need for robust,real-time detection systems powered by advanced deep learning models.This paper introduces PhishNet,a novel ensemble learning framework that integrates transformer-based models(RoBERTa)and large language models(LLMs)(GPT-OSS 120B,LLaMA3.370B,and Qwen332B)to enhance smishing detection performance significantly.To mitigate class imbalance,we apply synthetic data augmentation using T5 and leverage various text preprocessing techniques.Our system employs a duallayer voting mechanism:weighted majority voting among LLMs and a final ensemble vote to classify messages as ham,spam,or smishing.Experimental results show an average accuracy improvement from 96%to 98.5%compared to the best standalone transformer,and from 93%to 98.5%when compared to LLMs across datasets.Furthermore,we present a real-time,user-friendly application to operationalize our detection model for practical use.PhishNet demonstrates superior scalability,usability,and detection accuracy,filling critical gaps in current smishing detection methodologies.展开更多
Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS)attacks are one of the severe threats to network infrastructure,sometimes bypassing traditional diagnosis algorithms because of their evolving complexity.PresentMachine Learning(ML)t...Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS)attacks are one of the severe threats to network infrastructure,sometimes bypassing traditional diagnosis algorithms because of their evolving complexity.PresentMachine Learning(ML)techniques for DDoS attack diagnosis normally apply network traffic statistical features such as packet sizes and inter-arrival times.However,such techniques sometimes fail to capture complicated relations among various traffic flows.In this paper,we present a new multi-scale ensemble strategy given the Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)for improving DDoS detection.Our technique divides traffic into macro-and micro-level elements,letting various GNN models to get the two corase-scale anomalies and subtle,stealthy attack models.Through modeling network traffic as graph-structured data,GNNs efficiently learn intricate relations among network entities.The proposed ensemble learning algorithm combines the results of several GNNs to improve generalization,robustness,and scalability.Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets—UNSW-NB15,CICIDS2017,and CICDDoS2019—show that our approach outperforms traditional machine learning and deep learning models in detecting both high-rate and low-rate(stealthy)DDoS attacks,with significant improvements in accuracy and recall.These findings demonstrate the suggested method’s applicability and robustness for real-world implementation in contexts where several DDoS patterns coexist.展开更多
One-dimensional ensemble dispersion entropy(EDE1D)is an effective nonlinear dynamic analysis method for complexity measurement of time series.However,it is only restricted to assessing the complexity of one-di-mension...One-dimensional ensemble dispersion entropy(EDE1D)is an effective nonlinear dynamic analysis method for complexity measurement of time series.However,it is only restricted to assessing the complexity of one-di-mensional time series(TS1d)with the extracted complexity features only at a single scale.Aiming at these problems,a new nonlinear dynamic analysis method termed two-dimensional composite multi-scale ensemble Gramian dispersion entropy(CMEGDE_(2D))is proposed in this paper.First,the TS_(1D) is transformed into a two-dimensional image(I_(2D))by using Gramian angular fields(GAF)with more internal data structures and geometri features,which preserve the global characteristics and time dependence of vibration signals.Second,the I2D is analyzed at multiple scales through the composite coarse-graining method,which overcomes the limitation of a single scale and provides greater stability compared to traditional coarse-graining methods.Subsequently,a new fault diagnosis method of rolling bearing is proposed based on the proposed CMEGDE_(2D) for fault feature ex-traction and the chicken swarm algorithm optimized support vector machine(CsO-SvM)for fault pattern identification.The simulation signals and two data sets of rolling bearings are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis method.The results demonstrate that the proposed method has stronger dis-crimination ability,higher fault diagnosis accuracy and better stability than the other compared methods.展开更多
We propose a novel cooling protocol within a triple-Laguerre-Gaussian cavity optomechanical system,which is designed to suppress the thermal vibrations of a rotating mirror to reach its quantum ground state.The system...We propose a novel cooling protocol within a triple-Laguerre-Gaussian cavity optomechanical system,which is designed to suppress the thermal vibrations of a rotating mirror to reach its quantum ground state.The system incorporates two auxiliary cavities and an atomic ensemble coupled to a Laguerre-Gaussian rotational cavity.By carefully selecting system parameters,the cooling process of the rotating mirror is significantly enhanced,while the heating process is effectively suppressed,enabling efficient ground-state cooling even in the unresolved sideband regime.Compared to previous works,our scheme reduces the stringent restrictions on auxiliary systems,making it more experimentally feasible under broader parameter conditions.These findings provide a robust approach for achieving ground-state cooling in mechanical resonators.展开更多
Rice is one of the most important staple crops globally.Rice plant diseases can severely reduce crop yields and,in extreme cases,lead to total production loss.Early diagnosis enables timely intervention,mitigates dise...Rice is one of the most important staple crops globally.Rice plant diseases can severely reduce crop yields and,in extreme cases,lead to total production loss.Early diagnosis enables timely intervention,mitigates disease severity,supports effective treatment strategies,and reduces reliance on excessive pesticide use.Traditional machine learning approaches have been applied for automated rice disease diagnosis;however,these methods depend heavily on manual image preprocessing and handcrafted feature extraction,which are labor-intensive and time-consuming and often require domain expertise.Recently,end-to-end deep learning(DL) models have been introduced for this task,but they often lack robustness and generalizability across diverse datasets.To address these limitations,we propose a novel end-toend training framework for convolutional neural network(CNN) and attention-based model ensembles(E2ETCA).This framework integrates features from two state-of-the-art(SOTA) CNN models,Inception V3 and DenseNet-201,and an attention-based vision transformer(ViT) model.The fused features are passed through an additional fully connected layer with softmax activation for final classification.The entire process is trained end-to-end,enhancing its suitability for realworld deployment.Furthermore,we extract and analyze the learned features using a support vector machine(SVM),a traditional machine learning classifier,to provide comparative insights.We evaluate the proposed E2ETCA framework on three publicly available datasets,the Mendeley Rice Leaf Disease Image Samples dataset,the Kaggle Rice Diseases Image dataset,the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute dataset,and a combined version of all three.Using standard evaluation metrics(accuracy,precision,recall,and F1-score),our framework demonstrates superior performance compared to existing SOTA methods in rice disease diagnosis,with potential applicability to other agricultural disease detection tasks.展开更多
Traditional mining in open pit mines often uses explosives,leading to environmental hazards,with flyrock being a critical issue.In detail,excess flying rock beyond the designated explosion area was identified as the p...Traditional mining in open pit mines often uses explosives,leading to environmental hazards,with flyrock being a critical issue.In detail,excess flying rock beyond the designated explosion area was identified as the primary cause of fatal and non-fatal blasting hazards in open pit mining.Therefore,the accurate and reliable prediction of flyrock becomes crucial for effectively managing and mitigating associated problems.This study used the Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)model to predict flyrock in a lead-zinc mine,with promising results.To improve its accuracy,multi-verse optimizer(MVO)and ant lion optimizer(ALO)metaheuristic algorithms were introduced.Results showed MVO-LightGBM outperformed conventional LightGBM.Additionally,decision tree(DT),support vector machine(SVM),and classification and regression tree(CART)models were trained and compared with MVO-LightGBM.The MVO-LightGBM model excelled over DT,SVM,and CART.This study highlights MVO-LightGBM's effectiveness and potential for broader applications.Furthermore,a multiple parametric sensitivity analysis(MPSA)algorithm was employed to specify the sensitivity of parameters.MPSA results indicated that the highest and lowest sensitivities are relevant to blasted rock per hole and spacing with theγ=1752.12 andγ=49.52,respectively.展开更多
Android smartphones have become an integral part of our daily lives,becoming targets for ransomware attacks.Such attacks encrypt user information and ask for payment to recover it.Conventional detection mechanisms,suc...Android smartphones have become an integral part of our daily lives,becoming targets for ransomware attacks.Such attacks encrypt user information and ask for payment to recover it.Conventional detection mechanisms,such as signature-based and heuristic techniques,often fail to detect new and polymorphic ransomware samples.To address this challenge,we employed various ensemble classifiers,such as Random Forest,Gradient Boosting,Bagging,and AutoML models.We aimed to showcase how AutoML can automate processes such as model selection,feature engineering,and hyperparameter optimization,to minimize manual effort while ensuring or enhancing performance compared to traditional approaches.We used this framework to test it with a publicly available dataset from the Kaggle repository,which contains features for Android ransomware network traffic.The dataset comprises 392,024 flow records,divided into eleven groups.There are ten classes for various ransomware types,including SVpeng,PornDroid,Koler,WannaLocker,and Lockerpin.There is also a class for regular traffic.We applied a three-step procedure to select themost relevant features:filter,wrapper,and embeddedmethods.The Bagging classifier was highly accurate,correctly getting 99.84%of the time.The FLAML AutoML framework was evenmore accurate,correctly getting 99.85%of the time.This is indicative of howwellAutoML performs in improving things with minimal human assistance.Our findings indicate that AutoML is an efficient,scalable,and flexible method to discover Android ransomware,and it will facilitate the development of next-generation intrusion detection systems.展开更多
Artificial Intelligence(AI)is changing healthcare by helping with diagnosis.However,for doctors to trust AI tools,they need to be both accurate and easy to understand.In this study,we created a new machine learning sy...Artificial Intelligence(AI)is changing healthcare by helping with diagnosis.However,for doctors to trust AI tools,they need to be both accurate and easy to understand.In this study,we created a new machine learning system for the early detection of Autism Spectrum Disorder(ASD)in children.Our main goal was to build a model that is not only good at predicting ASD but also clear in its reasoning.For this,we combined several different models,including Random Forest,XGBoost,and Neural Networks,into a single,more powerful framework.We used two different types of datasets:(i)a standard behavioral dataset and(ii)a more complex multimodal dataset with images,audio,and physiological information.The datasets were carefully preprocessed for missing values,redundant features,and dataset imbalance to ensure fair learning.The results outperformed the state-of-the-art with a Regularized Neural Network,achieving 97.6%accuracy on behavioral data.Whereas,on the multimodal data,the accuracy is 98.2%.Other models also did well with accuracies consistently above 96%.We also used SHAP and LIME on a behavioral dataset for models’explainability.展开更多
In recent years,ransomware attacks have become one of the most common and destructive types of cyberattacks.Their impact is significant on the operations,finances and reputation of affected companies.Despite the effor...In recent years,ransomware attacks have become one of the most common and destructive types of cyberattacks.Their impact is significant on the operations,finances and reputation of affected companies.Despite the efforts of researchers and security experts to protect information systems from these attacks,the threat persists and the proposed solutions are not able to significantly stop the spread of ransomware attacks.The latest remarkable achievements of large language models(LLMs)in NLP tasks have caught the attention of cybersecurity researchers to integrate thesemodels into security threat detection.Thesemodels offer high embedding capabilities,able to extract rich semantic representations and paving theway formore accurate and adaptive solutions.In this context,we propose a new approach for ransomware detection based on an ensemblemethod that leverages three distinctLLMembeddingmodels.This ensemble strategy takes advantage of the variety of embedding methods and the strengths of each model.In the proposed solution,each embedding model is associated with an independently trainedMLP classifier.The predictions obtained are then merged using a weighted voting technique,assigning each model an influence proportional to its performance.This approach makes it possible to exploit the complementarity of representations,improve detection accuracy and robustness,and offer a more reliable solution in the face of the growing diversity and complexity of modern ransomware.展开更多
Optical non-reciprocity is a fundamental phenomenon in photonics.It is crucial for developing devices that rely on directional signal control,such as optical isolators and circulators.However,most research in this fie...Optical non-reciprocity is a fundamental phenomenon in photonics.It is crucial for developing devices that rely on directional signal control,such as optical isolators and circulators.However,most research in this field has focused on systems in equilibrium or steady states.In this work,we demonstrate a room-temperature Rydberg atomic platform where the unidirectional propagation of light acts as a switch to mediate time-crystalline-like collective oscillations through atomic synchronization.展开更多
With the development of landslide monitoring system,many attempts have been made to predict landslide failure-time utilizing monitoring data of displacements.Classical models(e.g.,Verhulst,GM(1,1),and Saito models)tha...With the development of landslide monitoring system,many attempts have been made to predict landslide failure-time utilizing monitoring data of displacements.Classical models(e.g.,Verhulst,GM(1,1),and Saito models)that consider the characteristics of landslide displacement to determine the failuretime have been investigated extensively.In practice,monitoring is continuously implemented with monitoring data-set updated,meaning that the predicted landslide life expectancy(i.e.,the lag between the predicted failure-time and time node at each instant of conducting the prediction)should be re-evaluated with time.This manner is termed“dynamic prediction”.However,the performances of the classical models have not been discussed in the context of the dynamic prediction yet.In this study,such performances are investigated firstly,and disadvantages of the classical models are then reported,incorporating the monitoring data from four real landslides.Subsequently,a more qualified ensemble model is proposed,where the individual classical models are integrated by machine learning(ML)-based meta-model.To evaluate the quality of the models under the dynamic prediction,a novel indicator termed“discredit index(b)”is proposed,and a higher value of b indicates lower prediction quality.It is found that Verhulst and Saito models would produce predicted results with significantly higher b,while GM(1,1)model would indicate results with the highest mean absolute error.Meanwhile,the ensemble models are found to be more accurate and qualified than the classical models.Here,the performance of decision tree regression-based ensemble model is the best among the various ML-based ensemble models.展开更多
An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of...An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; （2） the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and （3） whether the REPS＇s skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system （GEPS） were analyzed. A ＂multi-scale blending＂ （MSB） IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows： The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.展开更多
In this study, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences - regional ensemble forecast system （IAP-REFS） described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer ...In this study, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences - regional ensemble forecast system （IAP-REFS） described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer season of 2010. The verification results show that IAP-REFS is skillful for quantitative precipitation forecasts （QPF） and probabilistic QPF, but it has a systematic bias in forecasting near-surface variables. Applying a 7-day running mean bias correction to the forecasts of near-surface variables remarkably improved the reliability of the forecasts. In this study, the perturbation extraction and inflation method （proposed with the single case study in Part I） was further applied to the full season with different inflation factors. This method increased the ensemble spread and improved the accuracy of forecasts of precipitation and near-surface variables. The seasonal mean profiles of the IAP-REFS ensemble indicate good spread among ensemble members and some model biases at certain vertical levels.展开更多
A single-model, short-range, ensemble forecasting system （Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Regional Ensemble Forecast System, IAP REFS） with 15-km grid spacing, configured with multiple initial conditions, multiple...A single-model, short-range, ensemble forecasting system （Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Regional Ensemble Forecast System, IAP REFS） with 15-km grid spacing, configured with multiple initial conditions, multiple lateral boundary conditions, and multiple physics parameterizations with 11 ensemble members, was developed using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model Advanced Research modeling system for prediction of stratiform precipitation events in northern China. This is the first part of a broader research project to develop a novel cloud-seeding operational system in a probabilistic framework. The ensemble perturbations were extracted from selected members of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting System （NCEP GEFS） forecasts, and an inflation factor of two was applied to compensate for the lack of spread in the GEFS forecasts over the research region. Experiments on an actual stratiform precipitation case that occurred on 5-7 June 2009 in northern China were conducted to validate the ensemble system. The IAP REFS system had reasonably good performance in predicting the observed stratiform precipitation system. The perturbation inflation enlarged the ensemble spread and alleviated the underdispersion caused by parent forecasts. Centering the extracted perturbations on higher-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System forecasts resulted in less ensemble mean root-mean-square error and better accuracy in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts （PQPF）. However, the perturbation inflation and recentering had less effect on near-surface-level variables compared to the mid-level variables, and its influence on PQPF resolution was limited as well.展开更多
The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resol...The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.展开更多
文摘Small-drone technology has opened a range of new applications for aerial transportation. These drones leverage the Internet of Things (IoT) to offer cross-location services for navigation. However, they are susceptible to security and privacy threats due to hardware and architectural issues. Although small drones hold promise for expansion in both civil and defense sectors, they have safety, security, and privacy threats. Addressing these challenges is crucial to maintaining the security and uninterrupted operations of these drones. In this regard, this study investigates security, and preservation concerning both the drones and Internet of Drones (IoD), emphasizing the significance of creating drone networks that are secure and can robustly withstand interceptions and intrusions. The proposed framework incorporates a weighted voting ensemble model comprising three convolutional neural network (CNN) models to enhance intrusion detection within the network. The employed CNNs are customized 1D models optimized to obtain better performance. The output from these CNNs is voted using a weighted criterion using a 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 ratio for three CNNs, respectively. Experiments involve using multiple benchmark datasets, achieving an impressive accuracy of up to 99.89% on drone data. The proposed model shows promising results concerning precision, recall, and F1 as indicated by their obtained values of 99.92%, 99.98%, and 99.97%, respectively. Furthermore, cross-validation and performance comparison with existing works is also carried out. Findings indicate that the proposed approach offers a prospective solution for detecting security threats for aerial systems and satellite systems with high accuracy.
基金supported by General Scientific Research Funding of the Science and Technology Development Fund(FDCT)in Macao(No.0150/2022/A)the Faculty Research Grants of Macao University of Science and Technology(No.FRG-22-074-FIE).
文摘With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Project under Grant 2020YFB1806805partially funded through a grant from Qualcomm。
文摘6G is desired to support more intelligence networks and this trend attaches importance to the self-healing capability if degradation emerges in the cellular networks.As a primary component of selfhealing networks,fault detection is investigated in this paper.Considering the fast response and low timeand-computational consumption,it is the first time that the Online Broad Learning System(OBLS)is applied to identify outages in cellular networks.In addition,the Automatic-constructed Online Broad Learning System(AOBLS)is put forward to rationalize its structure and consequently avoid over-fitting and under-fitting.Furthermore,a multi-layer classification structure is proposed to further improve the classification performance.To face the challenges caused by imbalanced data in fault detection problems,a novel weighting strategy is derived to achieve the Multilayer Automatic-constructed Weighted Online Broad Learning System(MAWOBLS)and ensemble learning with retrained Support Vector Machine(SVM),denoted as EMAWOBLS,for superior treatment with this imbalance issue.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has excellent performance in detecting faults with satisfactory time usage.
文摘Distribution transformers play a vital role in power distribution systems,and their reliable operation is crucial for grid stability.This study presents a simulation-based framework for active fault diagnosis and early warning of distribution transformers,integrating Sample Ensemble Learning(SEL)with a Self-Optimizing Support Vector Machine(SO-SVM).The SEL technique enhances data diversity and mitigates class imbalance,while SO-SVM adaptively tunes its hyperparameters to improve classification accuracy.A comprehensive transformer model was developed in MATLAB/Simulink to simulate diverse fault scenarios,including inter-turn winding faults,core saturation,and thermal aging.Feature vectors were extracted from voltage,current,and temperature measurements to train and validate the proposed hybrid model.Quantitative analysis shows that the SEL–SO-SVM framework achieves a classification accuracy of 97.8%,a precision of 96.5%,and an F1-score of 97.2%.Beyond classification,the model effectively identified incipient faults,providing an early warning lead time of up to 2.5 s before significant deviations in operational parameters.This predictive capability underscores its potential for preventing catastrophic transformer failures and enabling timely maintenance actions.The proposed approach demonstrates strong applicability for enhancing the reliability and operational safety of distribution transformers in simulated environments,offering a promising foundation for future real-time and field-level implementations.
基金the Deanship of Research and Graduate Studies at King Khalid University,KSA,for funding this work through the Large Research Project under grant number RGP2/164/46.
文摘Background:Stomach cancer(SC)is one of the most lethal malignancies worldwide due to late-stage diagnosis and limited treatment.The transcriptomic,epigenomic,and proteomic,etc.,omics datasets generated by high-throughput sequencing technology have become prominent in biomedical research,and they reveal molecular aspects of cancer diagnosis and therapy.Despite the development of advanced sequencing technology,the presence of high-dimensionality in multi-omics data makes it challenging to interpret the data.Methods:In this study,we introduce RankXLAN,an explainable ensemble-based multi-omics framework that integrates feature selection(FS),ensemble learning,bioinformatics,and in-silico validation for robust biomarker detection,potential therapeutic drug-repurposing candidates’identification,and classification of SC.To enhance the interpretability of the model,we incorporated explainable artificial intelligence(SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis),as well as accuracy,precision,F1-score,recall,cross-validation,specificity,likelihood ratio(LR)+,LR−,and Youden index results.Results:The experimental results showed that the top four FS algorithms achieved improved results when applied to the ensemble learning classification model.The proposed ensemble model produced an area under the curve(AUC)score of 0.994 for gene expression,0.97 for methylation,and 0.96 for miRNA expression data.Through the integration of bioinformatics and ML approach of the transcriptomic and epigenomic multi-omics dataset,we identified potential marker genes,namely,UBE2D2,HPCAL4,IGHA1,DPT,and FN3K.In-silico molecular docking revealed a strong binding affinity between ANKRD13C and the FDA-approved drug Everolimus(binding affinity−10.1 kcal/mol),identifying ANKRD13C as a potential therapeutic drug-repurposing target for SC.Conclusion:The proposed framework RankXLAN outperforms other existing frameworks for serum biomarker identification,therapeutic target identification,and SC classification with multi-omics datasets.
基金funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research(DSR)at King Abdulaziz University,Jeddah,under Grant No.(GPIP:1074-612-2024).
文摘The surge in smishing attacks underscores the urgent need for robust,real-time detection systems powered by advanced deep learning models.This paper introduces PhishNet,a novel ensemble learning framework that integrates transformer-based models(RoBERTa)and large language models(LLMs)(GPT-OSS 120B,LLaMA3.370B,and Qwen332B)to enhance smishing detection performance significantly.To mitigate class imbalance,we apply synthetic data augmentation using T5 and leverage various text preprocessing techniques.Our system employs a duallayer voting mechanism:weighted majority voting among LLMs and a final ensemble vote to classify messages as ham,spam,or smishing.Experimental results show an average accuracy improvement from 96%to 98.5%compared to the best standalone transformer,and from 93%to 98.5%when compared to LLMs across datasets.Furthermore,we present a real-time,user-friendly application to operationalize our detection model for practical use.PhishNet demonstrates superior scalability,usability,and detection accuracy,filling critical gaps in current smishing detection methodologies.
文摘Distributed Denial of Service(DDoS)attacks are one of the severe threats to network infrastructure,sometimes bypassing traditional diagnosis algorithms because of their evolving complexity.PresentMachine Learning(ML)techniques for DDoS attack diagnosis normally apply network traffic statistical features such as packet sizes and inter-arrival times.However,such techniques sometimes fail to capture complicated relations among various traffic flows.In this paper,we present a new multi-scale ensemble strategy given the Graph Neural Networks(GNNs)for improving DDoS detection.Our technique divides traffic into macro-and micro-level elements,letting various GNN models to get the two corase-scale anomalies and subtle,stealthy attack models.Through modeling network traffic as graph-structured data,GNNs efficiently learn intricate relations among network entities.The proposed ensemble learning algorithm combines the results of several GNNs to improve generalization,robustness,and scalability.Extensive experiments on three benchmark datasets—UNSW-NB15,CICIDS2017,and CICDDoS2019—show that our approach outperforms traditional machine learning and deep learning models in detecting both high-rate and low-rate(stealthy)DDoS attacks,with significant improvements in accuracy and recall.These findings demonstrate the suggested method’s applicability and robustness for real-world implementation in contexts where several DDoS patterns coexist.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51975004)the Outstanding Youth Fund of Universities in Anhui Province of China(Grant No.2022AH020032).
文摘One-dimensional ensemble dispersion entropy(EDE1D)is an effective nonlinear dynamic analysis method for complexity measurement of time series.However,it is only restricted to assessing the complexity of one-di-mensional time series(TS1d)with the extracted complexity features only at a single scale.Aiming at these problems,a new nonlinear dynamic analysis method termed two-dimensional composite multi-scale ensemble Gramian dispersion entropy(CMEGDE_(2D))is proposed in this paper.First,the TS_(1D) is transformed into a two-dimensional image(I_(2D))by using Gramian angular fields(GAF)with more internal data structures and geometri features,which preserve the global characteristics and time dependence of vibration signals.Second,the I2D is analyzed at multiple scales through the composite coarse-graining method,which overcomes the limitation of a single scale and provides greater stability compared to traditional coarse-graining methods.Subsequently,a new fault diagnosis method of rolling bearing is proposed based on the proposed CMEGDE_(2D) for fault feature ex-traction and the chicken swarm algorithm optimized support vector machine(CsO-SvM)for fault pattern identification.The simulation signals and two data sets of rolling bearings are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis method.The results demonstrate that the proposed method has stronger dis-crimination ability,higher fault diagnosis accuracy and better stability than the other compared methods.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62471180)。
文摘We propose a novel cooling protocol within a triple-Laguerre-Gaussian cavity optomechanical system,which is designed to suppress the thermal vibrations of a rotating mirror to reach its quantum ground state.The system incorporates two auxiliary cavities and an atomic ensemble coupled to a Laguerre-Gaussian rotational cavity.By carefully selecting system parameters,the cooling process of the rotating mirror is significantly enhanced,while the heating process is effectively suppressed,enabling efficient ground-state cooling even in the unresolved sideband regime.Compared to previous works,our scheme reduces the stringent restrictions on auxiliary systems,making it more experimentally feasible under broader parameter conditions.These findings provide a robust approach for achieving ground-state cooling in mechanical resonators.
基金the Begum Rokeya University,Rangpur,and the United Arab Emirates University,UAE for partially supporting this work。
文摘Rice is one of the most important staple crops globally.Rice plant diseases can severely reduce crop yields and,in extreme cases,lead to total production loss.Early diagnosis enables timely intervention,mitigates disease severity,supports effective treatment strategies,and reduces reliance on excessive pesticide use.Traditional machine learning approaches have been applied for automated rice disease diagnosis;however,these methods depend heavily on manual image preprocessing and handcrafted feature extraction,which are labor-intensive and time-consuming and often require domain expertise.Recently,end-to-end deep learning(DL) models have been introduced for this task,but they often lack robustness and generalizability across diverse datasets.To address these limitations,we propose a novel end-toend training framework for convolutional neural network(CNN) and attention-based model ensembles(E2ETCA).This framework integrates features from two state-of-the-art(SOTA) CNN models,Inception V3 and DenseNet-201,and an attention-based vision transformer(ViT) model.The fused features are passed through an additional fully connected layer with softmax activation for final classification.The entire process is trained end-to-end,enhancing its suitability for realworld deployment.Furthermore,we extract and analyze the learned features using a support vector machine(SVM),a traditional machine learning classifier,to provide comparative insights.We evaluate the proposed E2ETCA framework on three publicly available datasets,the Mendeley Rice Leaf Disease Image Samples dataset,the Kaggle Rice Diseases Image dataset,the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute dataset,and a combined version of all three.Using standard evaluation metrics(accuracy,precision,recall,and F1-score),our framework demonstrates superior performance compared to existing SOTA methods in rice disease diagnosis,with potential applicability to other agricultural disease detection tasks.
基金funded by the Key Laboratory of Geological Safety of Coastal Urban Underground Space,Ministry of Natural Resources of China(Grant No.BHKF2022Y02)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(Grant No.2024A1515011162)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Grant No.ZR2024QE021).
文摘Traditional mining in open pit mines often uses explosives,leading to environmental hazards,with flyrock being a critical issue.In detail,excess flying rock beyond the designated explosion area was identified as the primary cause of fatal and non-fatal blasting hazards in open pit mining.Therefore,the accurate and reliable prediction of flyrock becomes crucial for effectively managing and mitigating associated problems.This study used the Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)model to predict flyrock in a lead-zinc mine,with promising results.To improve its accuracy,multi-verse optimizer(MVO)and ant lion optimizer(ALO)metaheuristic algorithms were introduced.Results showed MVO-LightGBM outperformed conventional LightGBM.Additionally,decision tree(DT),support vector machine(SVM),and classification and regression tree(CART)models were trained and compared with MVO-LightGBM.The MVO-LightGBM model excelled over DT,SVM,and CART.This study highlights MVO-LightGBM's effectiveness and potential for broader applications.Furthermore,a multiple parametric sensitivity analysis(MPSA)algorithm was employed to specify the sensitivity of parameters.MPSA results indicated that the highest and lowest sensitivities are relevant to blasted rock per hole and spacing with theγ=1752.12 andγ=49.52,respectively.
基金supported through theOngoing Research Funding Program(ORF-2025-498),King Saud University,Riyadh,Saudi Arabia.
文摘Android smartphones have become an integral part of our daily lives,becoming targets for ransomware attacks.Such attacks encrypt user information and ask for payment to recover it.Conventional detection mechanisms,such as signature-based and heuristic techniques,often fail to detect new and polymorphic ransomware samples.To address this challenge,we employed various ensemble classifiers,such as Random Forest,Gradient Boosting,Bagging,and AutoML models.We aimed to showcase how AutoML can automate processes such as model selection,feature engineering,and hyperparameter optimization,to minimize manual effort while ensuring or enhancing performance compared to traditional approaches.We used this framework to test it with a publicly available dataset from the Kaggle repository,which contains features for Android ransomware network traffic.The dataset comprises 392,024 flow records,divided into eleven groups.There are ten classes for various ransomware types,including SVpeng,PornDroid,Koler,WannaLocker,and Lockerpin.There is also a class for regular traffic.We applied a three-step procedure to select themost relevant features:filter,wrapper,and embeddedmethods.The Bagging classifier was highly accurate,correctly getting 99.84%of the time.The FLAML AutoML framework was evenmore accurate,correctly getting 99.85%of the time.This is indicative of howwellAutoML performs in improving things with minimal human assistance.Our findings indicate that AutoML is an efficient,scalable,and flexible method to discover Android ransomware,and it will facilitate the development of next-generation intrusion detection systems.
基金the King Salman center for Disability Research for funding this work through Research Group No.KSRG-2024-050.
文摘Artificial Intelligence(AI)is changing healthcare by helping with diagnosis.However,for doctors to trust AI tools,they need to be both accurate and easy to understand.In this study,we created a new machine learning system for the early detection of Autism Spectrum Disorder(ASD)in children.Our main goal was to build a model that is not only good at predicting ASD but also clear in its reasoning.For this,we combined several different models,including Random Forest,XGBoost,and Neural Networks,into a single,more powerful framework.We used two different types of datasets:(i)a standard behavioral dataset and(ii)a more complex multimodal dataset with images,audio,and physiological information.The datasets were carefully preprocessed for missing values,redundant features,and dataset imbalance to ensure fair learning.The results outperformed the state-of-the-art with a Regularized Neural Network,achieving 97.6%accuracy on behavioral data.Whereas,on the multimodal data,the accuracy is 98.2%.Other models also did well with accuracies consistently above 96%.We also used SHAP and LIME on a behavioral dataset for models’explainability.
基金funded by the Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research at Jouf University under grant No.(DGSSR-2024-02-01176).
文摘In recent years,ransomware attacks have become one of the most common and destructive types of cyberattacks.Their impact is significant on the operations,finances and reputation of affected companies.Despite the efforts of researchers and security experts to protect information systems from these attacks,the threat persists and the proposed solutions are not able to significantly stop the spread of ransomware attacks.The latest remarkable achievements of large language models(LLMs)in NLP tasks have caught the attention of cybersecurity researchers to integrate thesemodels into security threat detection.Thesemodels offer high embedding capabilities,able to extract rich semantic representations and paving theway formore accurate and adaptive solutions.In this context,we propose a new approach for ransomware detection based on an ensemblemethod that leverages three distinctLLMembeddingmodels.This ensemble strategy takes advantage of the variety of embedding methods and the strengths of each model.In the proposed solution,each embedding model is associated with an independently trainedMLP classifier.The predictions obtained are then merged using a weighted voting technique,assigning each model an influence proportional to its performance.This approach makes it possible to exploit the complementarity of representations,improve detection accuracy and robustness,and offer a more reliable solution in the face of the growing diversity and complexity of modern ransomware.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.12274131)the Innovation Program for Quantum Science and Technology (Grant No.2024ZD0300101)。
文摘Optical non-reciprocity is a fundamental phenomenon in photonics.It is crucial for developing devices that rely on directional signal control,such as optical isolators and circulators.However,most research in this field has focused on systems in equilibrium or steady states.In this work,we demonstrate a room-temperature Rydberg atomic platform where the unidirectional propagation of light acts as a switch to mediate time-crystalline-like collective oscillations through atomic synchronization.
基金The work described in this paper was funded by grants from the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China(Grant Nos.2020JJ5704 and 2022JJ20058)the Special Fund for Safety Production Prevention and Emergency of Hunan Province(Grant No.2021YJ009)+2 种基金the Research Project of Geological Bureau of Hunan Province(Grant Nos.HNGSTP202106 and HNGSTP202202)the Fund of Wenzhou Municipal Science and Technology Bureau(Grant No.2022G0015)the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities of the Central South University(Grant No.2023ZZTS0470).
文摘With the development of landslide monitoring system,many attempts have been made to predict landslide failure-time utilizing monitoring data of displacements.Classical models(e.g.,Verhulst,GM(1,1),and Saito models)that consider the characteristics of landslide displacement to determine the failuretime have been investigated extensively.In practice,monitoring is continuously implemented with monitoring data-set updated,meaning that the predicted landslide life expectancy(i.e.,the lag between the predicted failure-time and time node at each instant of conducting the prediction)should be re-evaluated with time.This manner is termed“dynamic prediction”.However,the performances of the classical models have not been discussed in the context of the dynamic prediction yet.In this study,such performances are investigated firstly,and disadvantages of the classical models are then reported,incorporating the monitoring data from four real landslides.Subsequently,a more qualified ensemble model is proposed,where the individual classical models are integrated by machine learning(ML)-based meta-model.To evaluate the quality of the models under the dynamic prediction,a novel indicator termed“discredit index(b)”is proposed,and a higher value of b indicates lower prediction quality.It is found that Verhulst and Saito models would produce predicted results with significantly higher b,while GM(1,1)model would indicate results with the highest mean absolute error.Meanwhile,the ensemble models are found to be more accurate and qualified than the classical models.Here,the performance of decision tree regression-based ensemble model is the best among the various ML-based ensemble models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91437113)the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (Grant Nos. GYHY201506007 and GYHY201006015)+1 种基金the National 973 Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB417204 and 2012CB955200)the Scientific Research & Innovation Projects for Academic Degree Students of Ordinary Universities of Jiangsu (Grant No. KYLX 0827)
文摘An initial conditions （ICs） perturbation method was developed with the aim to improve an operational regional ensemble prediction system （REPS）. Three issues were identified and investigated： （1） the impacts of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill of the REPS; （2） the scale characteristic of the IC perturbations of the REPS; and （3） whether the REPS＇s skill could be improved by adding large-scale information to the IC perturbations. Numerical experiments were conducted to reveal the impact of perturbation scale on the ensemble spread and forecast skill. The scales of IC perturbations from the REPS and an operational global ensemble prediction system （GEPS） were analyzed. A ＂multi-scale blending＂ （MSB） IC perturbation scheme was developed, and the main findings can be summarized as follows： The growth rates of the ensemble spread of the REPS are sensitive to the scale of the IC perturbations; the ensemble forecast skills can benefit from large-scale perturbations; the global ensemble IC perturbations exhibit more power at larger scales, while the regional ensemble IC perturbations contain more power at smaller scales; the MSB method can generate IC perturbations by combining the small-scale component from the REPS and the large-scale component from the GEPS; the energy norm growth of the MSB-generated perturbations can be appropriate at all forecast lead times; and the MSB-based REPS shows higher skill than the original system, as determined by ensemble forecast verification.
基金supported by a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40875079)
文摘In this study, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences - regional ensemble forecast system （IAP-REFS） described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer season of 2010. The verification results show that IAP-REFS is skillful for quantitative precipitation forecasts （QPF） and probabilistic QPF, but it has a systematic bias in forecasting near-surface variables. Applying a 7-day running mean bias correction to the forecasts of near-surface variables remarkably improved the reliability of the forecasts. In this study, the perturbation extraction and inflation method （proposed with the single case study in Part I） was further applied to the full season with different inflation factors. This method increased the ensemble spread and improved the accuracy of forecasts of precipitation and near-surface variables. The seasonal mean profiles of the IAP-REFS ensemble indicate good spread among ensemble members and some model biases at certain vertical levels.
基金supported by the project of the NSFC (Grants No. 40875079)
文摘A single-model, short-range, ensemble forecasting system （Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Regional Ensemble Forecast System, IAP REFS） with 15-km grid spacing, configured with multiple initial conditions, multiple lateral boundary conditions, and multiple physics parameterizations with 11 ensemble members, was developed using the Weather and Research Forecasting Model Advanced Research modeling system for prediction of stratiform precipitation events in northern China. This is the first part of a broader research project to develop a novel cloud-seeding operational system in a probabilistic framework. The ensemble perturbations were extracted from selected members of the National Center for Environmental Prediction Global Ensemble Forecasting System （NCEP GEFS） forecasts, and an inflation factor of two was applied to compensate for the lack of spread in the GEFS forecasts over the research region. Experiments on an actual stratiform precipitation case that occurred on 5-7 June 2009 in northern China were conducted to validate the ensemble system. The IAP REFS system had reasonably good performance in predicting the observed stratiform precipitation system. The perturbation inflation enlarged the ensemble spread and alleviated the underdispersion caused by parent forecasts. Centering the extracted perturbations on higher-resolution NCEP Global Forecast System forecasts resulted in less ensemble mean root-mean-square error and better accuracy in probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts （PQPF）. However, the perturbation inflation and recentering had less effect on near-surface-level variables compared to the mid-level variables, and its influence on PQPF resolution was limited as well.
基金The Major State Basic Research Development Program of China under contract Nos 201-1CB403606 and 2011CB403500the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41222038,41076011and 41206023the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center Operational Development Foundation of the State Oceanic Administration of China under contract No.2013002
文摘The ensemble optimal interpolation （EnOI） is applied to the regional ocean modeling system （ROMS） with the ability to assimilate the along-track sea level anomaly （TSLA）. This system is tested with an eddy-resolving system of the South China Sea （SCS）. Background errors are derived from a running seasonal ensemble to account for the seasonal variability within the SCS. A fifth-order localization function with a 250 km localization radius is chosen to reduce the negative effects of sampling errors. The data assimilation system is tested from January 2004 to December 2006. The results show that the root mean square deviation （RMSD） of the sea level anomaly decreased from 10.57 to 6.70 cm, which represents a 36.6% reduction of error. The data assimilation reduces error for temperature within the upper 800 m and for salinity within the upper 200 m, although error degrades slightly at deeper depths. Surface currents are in better agreement with trajectories of surface drifters after data assimilation. The variance of sea level improves significantly in terms of both the amplitude and position of the strong and weak variance regions after assimilating TSLA. Results with AGE error （AGE） perform better than no AGE error （NoAGE） when considering the improvements of the temperature and the salinity. Furthermore, reasons for the extremely strong variability in the northern SCS in high resolution models are investigated. The results demonstrate that the strong variability of sea level in the high resolution model is caused by an extremely strong Kuroshio intrusion. Therefore, it is demonstrated that it is necessary to assimilate the TSLA in order to better simulate the SCS with high resolution models.
