To enhance the efficiency of vaccine manufacturing,this study focuses on optimizing the microfluidic conditions and lipid mix ratios of messenger RNA-lipid nanoparticles(mRNA-LNP).Different mRNA-LNP formulations(n=24)...To enhance the efficiency of vaccine manufacturing,this study focuses on optimizing the microfluidic conditions and lipid mix ratios of messenger RNA-lipid nanoparticles(mRNA-LNP).Different mRNA-LNP formulations(n=24)were developed using an I-optimal design,where machine learning tools(XGBoost/Bayesian optimization and self-validated ensemble(SVEM))were used to optimize the process and predict lipid mix ratio.The investigation included material attributes,their respective ratios,and process attributes.The critical responses like particle size(PS),polydispersity index(PDI),Zeta potential,pKa,heat trend cycle,encapsulation efficiency(EE),recovery ratio,and encapsulated mRNA were evaluated.Overall prediction of SVEM(>97%)was comparably better than that of XGBoost/Bayesian optimization(>94%).Moreover,in actual experimental outcomes,SVEM prediction is close to the actual data as confirmed by the experimental PS(94-96 nm)is close to the predicted one(95-97 nm).The other parameters including PDI and EE were also close to the actual experimental data.展开更多
Machine learning(ML)and data mining are used in various fields such as data analysis,prediction,image processing and especially in healthcare.Researchers in the past decade have focused on applying ML and data mining ...Machine learning(ML)and data mining are used in various fields such as data analysis,prediction,image processing and especially in healthcare.Researchers in the past decade have focused on applying ML and data mining to generate conclusions from historical data in order to improve healthcare systems by making predictions about the results.Using ML algorithms,researchers have developed applications for decision support,analyzed clinical aspects,extracted informative information from historical data,predicted the outcomes and categorized diseases which help physicians make better decisions.It is observed that there is a huge difference between women depending on the region and their social lives.Due to these differences,scholars have been encouraged to conduct studies at a local level in order to better understand those factors that affect maternal health and the expected child.In this study,the ensemble modeling technique is applied to classify birth outcomes based on either cesarean section(C-Section)or normal delivery.A voting ensemble model for the classification of a birth dataset was made by using a Random Forest(RF),Gradient Boosting Classifier,Extra Trees Classifier and Bagging Classifier as base learners.It is observed that the voting ensemble modal of proposed classifiers provides the best accuracy,i.e.,94.78%,as compared to the individual classifiers.ML algorithms are more accurate due to ensemble models,which reduce variance and classification errors.It is reported that when a suitable classification model has been developed for birth classification,decision support systems can be created to enable clinicians to gain in-depth insights into the patterns in the datasets.Developing such a system will not only allow health organizations to improve maternal health assessment processes,but also open doors for interdisciplinary research in two different fields in the region.展开更多
Metamaterial Antenna is a special class of antennas that uses metamaterial to enhance their performance.Antenna size affects the quality factor and the radiation loss of the antenna.Metamaterial antennas can overcome ...Metamaterial Antenna is a special class of antennas that uses metamaterial to enhance their performance.Antenna size affects the quality factor and the radiation loss of the antenna.Metamaterial antennas can overcome the limitation of bandwidth for small antennas.Machine learning(ML)model is recently applied to predict antenna parameters.ML can be used as an alternative approach to the trial-and-error process of finding proper parameters of the simulated antenna.The accuracy of the prediction depends mainly on the selected model.Ensemble models combine two or more base models to produce a better-enhanced model.In this paper,a weighted average ensemble model is proposed to predict the bandwidth of the Metamaterial Antenna.Two base models are used namely:Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)and Support Vector Machines(SVM).To calculate the weights for each model,an optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal weights of the ensemble.Dynamic Group-Based Cooperative Optimizer(DGCO)is employed to search for optimal weight for the base models.The proposed model is compared with three based models and the average ensemble model.The results show that the proposed model is better than other models and can predict antenna bandwidth efficiently.展开更多
Employing machine learning techniques in predicting the parameters of metamaterial antennas has a significant impact on the reduction of the time needed to design an antenna with optimal parameters using simulation to...Employing machine learning techniques in predicting the parameters of metamaterial antennas has a significant impact on the reduction of the time needed to design an antenna with optimal parameters using simulation tools.In this paper,we propose a new approach for predicting the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna using a novel ensemble model.The proposed ensemble model is composed of two levels of regression models.The first level consists of three strong models namely,random forest,support vector regression,and light gradient boosting machine.Whereas the second level is based on the ElasticNet regression model,which receives the prediction results from the models in the first level for refinement and producing the final optimal result.To achieve the best performance of these regression models,the advanced squirrel search optimization algorithm(ASSOA)is utilized to search for the optimal set of hyper-parameters of each model.Experimental results show that the proposed two-level ensemble model could achieve a robust prediction of the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna when compared with the recently published ensemble models based on the same publicly available benchmark dataset.The findings indicate that the proposed approach results in root mean square error(RMSE)of(0.013),mean absolute error(MAE)of(0.004),and mean bias error(MBE)of(0.0017).These results are superior to the other competing ensemble models and can predict the antenna bandwidth more accurately.展开更多
Predictive analytics have been widely used in the literature with respect to laparoscopic surgery and risk stratification.However,most predictive analytics in this field exploit generalized linearmodels for predictive...Predictive analytics have been widely used in the literature with respect to laparoscopic surgery and risk stratification.However,most predictive analytics in this field exploit generalized linearmodels for predictive purposes,which are limited by model assumptionsdincluding linearity between response variables and additive interactions between variables.In many instances,such assumptions may not hold true,and the complex relationship between predictors and response variables is usually unknown.To address this limitation,machine-learning algorithms can be employed to model the underlying data.The advantage of machine learning algorithms is that they usually do not require strict assumptions regarding data structure,and they are able to learn complex functional forms using a nonparametric approach.Furthermore,two or more machine learning algorithms can be synthesized to further improve predictive accuracy.Such a process is referred to as ensemble modeling,and it has been used broadly in various industries.However,this approach has not been widely reported in the laparoscopic surgical literature due to its complexity in both model training and interpretation.With this technical note,we provide a comprehensive overview of the ensemble-modeling technique and a step-by-step tutorial on how to implement ensemble modeling.展开更多
Despite the advancement within the last decades in the field of smart grids,energy consumption forecasting utilizing the metrological features is still challenging.This paper proposes a genetic algorithm-based adaptiv...Despite the advancement within the last decades in the field of smart grids,energy consumption forecasting utilizing the metrological features is still challenging.This paper proposes a genetic algorithm-based adaptive error curve learning ensemble(GA-ECLE)model.The proposed technique copes with the stochastic variations of improving energy consumption forecasting using a machine learning-based ensembled approach.A modified ensemble model based on a utilizing error of model as a feature is used to improve the forecast accuracy.This approach combines three models,namely CatBoost(CB),Gradient Boost(GB),and Multilayer Perceptron(MLP).The ensembled CB-GB-MLP model’s inner mechanism consists of generating a meta-data from Gradient Boosting and CatBoost models to compute the final predictions using the Multilayer Perceptron network.A genetic algorithm is used to obtain the optimal features to be used for the model.To prove the proposed model’s effectiveness,we have used a four-phase technique using Jeju island’s real energy consumption data.In the first phase,we have obtained the results by applying the CB-GB-MLP model.In the second phase,we have utilized a GA-ensembled model with optimal features.The third phase is for the comparison of the energy forecasting result with the proposed ECL-based model.The fourth stage is the final stage,where we have applied the GA-ECLE model.We obtained a mean absolute error of 3.05,and a root mean square error of 5.05.Extensive experimental results are provided,demonstrating the superiority of the proposed GA-ECLE model over traditional ensemble models.展开更多
Strong mechanical vibration and acoustical signals of grinding process contain useful information related to load parameters in ball mills. It is a challenge to extract latent features and construct soft sensor model ...Strong mechanical vibration and acoustical signals of grinding process contain useful information related to load parameters in ball mills. It is a challenge to extract latent features and construct soft sensor model with high dimensional frequency spectra of these signals. This paper aims to develop a selective ensemble modeling approach based on nonlinear latent frequency spectral feature extraction for accurate measurement of material to ball volume ratio. Latent features are first extracted from different vibrations and acoustic spectral segments by kernel partial least squares. Algorithms of bootstrap and least squares support vector machines are employed to produce candidate sub-models using these latent features as inputs. Ensemble sub-models are selected based on genetic algorithm optimization toolbox. Partial least squares regression is used to combine these sub-models to eliminate collinearity among their prediction outputs. Results indicate that the proposed modeling approach has better prediction performance than previous ones.展开更多
COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world.Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce t...COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world.Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce the number of new cases.In this study,we apply the decomposition and ensemble model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases,deaths,and recoveries in Pakistan for the upcoming month until the end of July.For the decomposition of data,the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)technique is applied.EEMD decomposes the data into small components,called Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs).For individual IMFs modelling,we use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model.The data used in this study is obtained from the official website of Pakistan that is publicly available and designated for COVID-19 outbreak with daily updates.Our analyses reveal that the number of recoveries,new cases,and deaths are increasing in Pakistan exponentially.Based on the selected EEMD-ARIMA model,the new confirmed cases are expected to rise from 213,470 to 311,454 by 31 July 2020,which is an increase of almost 1.46 times with a 95%prediction interval of 246,529 to 376,379.The 95%prediction interval for recovery is 162,414 to 224,579,with an increase of almost two times in total from 100802 to 193495 by 31 July 2020.On the other hand,the deaths are expected to increase from 4395 to 6751,which is almost 1.54 times,with a 95%prediction interval of 5617 to 7885.Thus,the COVID-19 forecasting results of Pakistan are alarming for the next month until 31 July 2020.They also confirm that the EEMD-ARIMA model is useful for the short-term forecasting of COVID-19,and that it is capable of keeping track of the real COVID-19 data in nearly all scenarios.The decomposition and ensemble strategy can be useful to help decision-makers in developing short-term strategies about the current number of disease occurrences until an appropriate vaccine is developed.展开更多
Numerous factors affect the increased temperature of a machine tool, including prolonged and high-intensity usage,tool-workpiece interaction, mechanical friction, and elevated ambient temperatures, among others. Conse...Numerous factors affect the increased temperature of a machine tool, including prolonged and high-intensity usage,tool-workpiece interaction, mechanical friction, and elevated ambient temperatures, among others. Consequently,spindle thermal displacement occurs, and machining precision suffers. To prevent the errors caused by thetemperature rise of the Spindle fromaffecting the accuracy during themachining process, typically, the factory willwarm up themachine before themanufacturing process.However, if there is noway to understand the tool spindle’sthermal deformation, the machining quality will be greatly affected. In order to solve the above problem, thisstudy aims to predict the thermal displacement of the machine tool by using intelligent algorithms. In the practicalapplication, only a few temperature sensors are used to input the information into the prediction model for realtimethermal displacement prediction. This approach has greatly improved the quality of tool processing.However,each algorithm has different performances in different environments. In this study, an ensemble model is used tointegrate Long Short-TermMemory (LSTM) with Support VectorMachine (SVM). The experimental results showthat the prediction performance of LSTM-SVM is higher than that of other machine learning algorithms.展开更多
A revised support vector regression (SVR) ensemble model based on boosting algorithm (SVR-Boosting) is presented in this paper for electricity price forecasting in electric power market. In the light of characteristic...A revised support vector regression (SVR) ensemble model based on boosting algorithm (SVR-Boosting) is presented in this paper for electricity price forecasting in electric power market. In the light of characteristics of electricity price sequence, a new triangular-shaped 为oss function is constructed in the training of the forecasting model to inhibit the learning from abnormal data in electricity price sequence. The results from actual data indicate that, compared with the single support vector regression model, the proposed SVR-Boosting ensemble model is able to enhance the stability of the model output remarkably, acquire higher predicting accuracy, and possess comparatively satisfactory generalization capability.展开更多
Stance detection is the task of attitude identification toward a standpoint.Previous work of stance detection has focused on feature extraction but ignored the fact that irrelevant features exist as noise during highe...Stance detection is the task of attitude identification toward a standpoint.Previous work of stance detection has focused on feature extraction but ignored the fact that irrelevant features exist as noise during higher-level abstracting.Moreover,because the target is not always mentioned in the text,most methods have ignored target information.In order to solve these problems,we propose a neural network ensemble method that combines the timing dependence bases on long short-term memory(LSTM)and the excellent extracting performance of convolutional neural networks(CNNs).The method can obtain multi-level features that consider both local and global features.We also introduce attention mechanisms to magnify target information-related features.Furthermore,we employ sparse coding to remove noise to obtain characteristic features.Performance was improved by using sparse coding on the basis of attention employment and feature extraction.We evaluate our approach on the SemEval-2016Task 6-A public dataset,achieving a performance that exceeds the benchmark and those of participating teams.展开更多
Breast cancer is one of the leading cancers among women.It has the second-highest mortality rate in women after lung cancer.Timely detection,especially in the early stages,can help increase survival rates.However,manu...Breast cancer is one of the leading cancers among women.It has the second-highest mortality rate in women after lung cancer.Timely detection,especially in the early stages,can help increase survival rates.However,manual diagnosis of breast cancer is a tedious and time-consuming process,and the accuracy of detection is reliant on the quality of the images and the radiologist’s experience.However,computer-aided medical diagnosis has recently shown promising results,leading to the need to develop an efficient system that can aid radiologists in diagnosing breast cancer in its early stages.The research presented in this paper is focused on the multi-class classification of breast cancer.The deep transfer learning approach has been utilized to train the deep learning models,and a pre-processing technique has been used to improve the quality of the ultrasound dataset.The proposed technique utilizes two deep learning models,Mobile-NetV2 and DenseNet201,for the composition of the deep ensemble model.Deep learning models are fine-tuned along with hyperparameter tuning to achieve better results.Subsequently,entropy-based feature selection is used.Breast cancer identification using the proposed classification approach was found to attain an accuracy of 97.04%,while the sensitivity and F1 score were 96.87%and 96.76%,respectively.The performance of the proposed model is very effective and outperforms other state-of-the-art techniques presented in the literature.展开更多
Covid-19 is a deadly virus that is rapidly spread around the world towards the end of the 2020.The consequences of this virus are quite frightening,especially when accompanied by an underlying disease.The novelty of t...Covid-19 is a deadly virus that is rapidly spread around the world towards the end of the 2020.The consequences of this virus are quite frightening,especially when accompanied by an underlying disease.The novelty of the virus,the constant emergence of different variants and its rapid spread have a negative impact on the control and treatment process.Although the new test kits provide almost certain results,chest X-rays are extremely important to detect the progression and degree of the disease.In addition to the Covid-19 virus,pneumonia and harmless opacity of the lungs also complicate the diagnosis.Considering the negative results caused by the virus and the treatment costs,the importance of fast and accurate diagnosis is clearly seen.In this context,deep learning methods appear as an extremely popular approach.In this study,a hybrid model design with superior properties of convolutional neural networks is presented to correctly classify the Covid-19 disease.In addition,in order to contribute to the literature,a suitable dataset with balanced case numbers that can be used in all artificial intelligence classification studies is presented.With this ensemble model design,quite remarkable results are obtained for the diagnosis of three and four-class Covid-19.The proposed model can classify normal,pneumonia,and Covid-19 with 92.6%accuracy and 82.6%for normal,pneumonia,Covid-19,and lung opacity.展开更多
This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble lear...This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.展开更多
With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration predict...With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.展开更多
Detection of cracks in concrete structures is critical for their safety and the sustainability of maintenance processes.Traditional inspection techniques are costly,time-consuming,and inefficient regarding human resou...Detection of cracks in concrete structures is critical for their safety and the sustainability of maintenance processes.Traditional inspection techniques are costly,time-consuming,and inefficient regarding human resources.Deep learning architectures have become more widespread in recent years by accelerating these processes and increasing their efficiency.Deep learning models(DLMs)stand out as an effective solution in crack detection due to their features such as end-to-end learning capability,model adaptation,and automatic learning processes.However,providing an optimal balance between model performance and computational efficiency of DLMs is a vital research topic.In this article,three different methods are proposed for detecting cracks in concrete structures.In the first method,a Separable Convolutional with Attention and Multi-layer Enhanced Fusion Network(SCAMEFNet)deep neural network,which has a deep architecture and can provide a balance between the depth of DLMs and model parameters,has been developed.This model was designed using a convolutional neural network,multi-head attention,and various fusion techniques.The second method proposes a modified vision transformer(ViT)model.A two-stage ensemble learning model,deep featurebased two-stage ensemble model(DFTSEM),is proposed in the third method.In this method,deep features and machine learning methods are used.The proposed approaches are evaluated using the Concrete Cracks Image Data set,which the authors collected and contains concrete cracks on building surfaces.The results show that the SCAMEFNet model achieved an accuracy rate of 98.83%,the ViT model 97.33%,and the DFTSEM model 99.00%.These findings show that the proposed techniques successfully detect surface cracks and deformations and can provide practical solutions to realworld problems.In addition,the developed methods can contribute as a tool for BIM platforms in smart cities for building health.展开更多
Driven by rapid technological advancements and economic growth,mineral extraction and metal refining have increased dramatically,generating huge volumes of tailings and mine waste(TMWs).Investigating the morphological...Driven by rapid technological advancements and economic growth,mineral extraction and metal refining have increased dramatically,generating huge volumes of tailings and mine waste(TMWs).Investigating the morphological fractions of heavy metals and metalloids(HMMs)in TMWs is key to evaluating their leaching potential into the environment;however,traditional experiments are time-consuming and labor-intensive.In this study,10 machine learning(ML)algorithms were used and compared for rapidly predicting the morphological fractions of HMMs in TMWs.A dataset comprising 2376 data points was used,with mineral composition,elemental properties,and total concentration used as inputs and concentration of morphological fraction used as output.After grid search optimization,the extra tree model performed the best,achieving coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.946 and 0.942 on the validation and test sets,respectively.Electronegativity was found to have the greatest impact on the morphological fraction.The models’performance was enhanced by applying an ensemble method to the top three optimal ML models,including gradient boosting decision tree,extra trees and categorical boosting.Overall,the proposed framework can accurately predict the concentrations of different morphological fractions of HMMs in TMWs.This approach can minimize detection time,aid in the safe management and recovery of TMWs.展开更多
Sentence classification is the process of categorizing a sentence based on the context of the sentence.Sentence categorization requires more semantic highlights than other tasks,such as dependence parsing,which requir...Sentence classification is the process of categorizing a sentence based on the context of the sentence.Sentence categorization requires more semantic highlights than other tasks,such as dependence parsing,which requires more syntactic elements.Most existing strategies focus on the general semantics of a conversation without involving the context of the sentence,recognizing the progress and comparing impacts.An ensemble pre-trained language model was taken up here to classify the conversation sentences from the conversation corpus.The conversational sentences are classified into four categories:information,question,directive,and commission.These classification label sequences are for analyzing the conversation progress and predicting the pecking order of the conversation.Ensemble of Bidirectional Encoder for Representation of Transformer(BERT),Robustly Optimized BERT pretraining Approach(RoBERTa),Generative Pre-Trained Transformer(GPT),DistilBERT and Generalized Autoregressive Pretraining for Language Understanding(XLNet)models are trained on conversation corpus with hyperparameters.Hyperparameter tuning approach is carried out for better performance on sentence classification.This Ensemble of Pre-trained Language Models with a Hyperparameter Tuning(EPLM-HT)system is trained on an annotated conversation dataset.The proposed approach outperformed compared to the base BERT,GPT,DistilBERT and XLNet transformer models.The proposed ensemble model with the fine-tuned parameters achieved an F1_score of 0.88.展开更多
Smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are transforming traditional manufacturing processes by utilizing innovative technologies such as the artificial intelligence(AI)and internet of things(IoT)to enhance efficiency,re...Smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are transforming traditional manufacturing processes by utilizing innovative technologies such as the artificial intelligence(AI)and internet of things(IoT)to enhance efficiency,reduce costs,and ensure product quality.In light of the recent advancement of Industry 4.0,identifying defects has become important for ensuring the quality of products during the manufacturing process.In this research,we present an ensemble methodology for accurately classifying hot rolled steel surface defects by combining the strengths of four pre-trained convolutional neural network(CNN)architectures:VGG16,VGG19,Xception,and Mobile-Net V2,compensating for their individual weaknesses.We evaluated our methodology on the Xsteel surface defect dataset(XSDD),which comprises seven different classes.The ensemble methodology integrated the predictions of individual models through two methods:model averaging and weighted averaging.Our evaluation showed that the model averaging ensemble achieved an accuracy of 98.89%,a recall of 98.92%,a precision of 99.05%,and an F1-score of 98.97%,while the weighted averaging ensemble reached an accuracy of 99.72%,a recall of 99.74%,a precision of 99.67%,and an F1-score of 99.70%.The proposed weighted averaging ensemble model outperformed the model averaging method and the individual models in detecting defects in terms of accuracy,recall,precision,and F1-score.Comparative analysis with recent studies also showed the superior performance of our methodology.展开更多
In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle ...In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle position,and actual power,lagged features were generated to capture temporal dependencies.Among 24 evaluated models,the ensemble bagging approach achieved the best performance,with R^(2) values of 0.89 at 0 min and 0.75 at 60 min.Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis revealed that while wind speed is the primary driver for short-term predictions,air temperature and nacelle position become more influential at longer forecasting horizons.These findings underscore the reliability of short-term predictions and the potential benefits of integrating hybrid AI and probabilistic models for extended forecasts.Our work contributes a robust and explainable framework to support Sri Lanka’s renewable energy transition,and future research will focus on real-time deployment and uncertainty quantification.展开更多
基金supported by the Advance Production of Vaccine Raw Materials(Grant Nos.:20022404 and 20018168)funded by the Ministry of Trade,Industry&Energy(MOTIE,Korea)supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korean government(MSIT)(Grant No.:NRF-2018R1A5A2023127)Dongguk University Research Fund of 2023(Grant No.:S-2023-G0001-00099)。
文摘To enhance the efficiency of vaccine manufacturing,this study focuses on optimizing the microfluidic conditions and lipid mix ratios of messenger RNA-lipid nanoparticles(mRNA-LNP).Different mRNA-LNP formulations(n=24)were developed using an I-optimal design,where machine learning tools(XGBoost/Bayesian optimization and self-validated ensemble(SVEM))were used to optimize the process and predict lipid mix ratio.The investigation included material attributes,their respective ratios,and process attributes.The critical responses like particle size(PS),polydispersity index(PDI),Zeta potential,pKa,heat trend cycle,encapsulation efficiency(EE),recovery ratio,and encapsulated mRNA were evaluated.Overall prediction of SVEM(>97%)was comparably better than that of XGBoost/Bayesian optimization(>94%).Moreover,in actual experimental outcomes,SVEM prediction is close to the actual data as confirmed by the experimental PS(94-96 nm)is close to the predicted one(95-97 nm).The other parameters including PDI and EE were also close to the actual experimental data.
基金Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC)and New Brunswick Innovation Foundation(NBIF)for the financial support of the global project.These granting agencies did not contribute in the design of the study and collection,analysis,and interpretation of data。
文摘Machine learning(ML)and data mining are used in various fields such as data analysis,prediction,image processing and especially in healthcare.Researchers in the past decade have focused on applying ML and data mining to generate conclusions from historical data in order to improve healthcare systems by making predictions about the results.Using ML algorithms,researchers have developed applications for decision support,analyzed clinical aspects,extracted informative information from historical data,predicted the outcomes and categorized diseases which help physicians make better decisions.It is observed that there is a huge difference between women depending on the region and their social lives.Due to these differences,scholars have been encouraged to conduct studies at a local level in order to better understand those factors that affect maternal health and the expected child.In this study,the ensemble modeling technique is applied to classify birth outcomes based on either cesarean section(C-Section)or normal delivery.A voting ensemble model for the classification of a birth dataset was made by using a Random Forest(RF),Gradient Boosting Classifier,Extra Trees Classifier and Bagging Classifier as base learners.It is observed that the voting ensemble modal of proposed classifiers provides the best accuracy,i.e.,94.78%,as compared to the individual classifiers.ML algorithms are more accurate due to ensemble models,which reduce variance and classification errors.It is reported that when a suitable classification model has been developed for birth classification,decision support systems can be created to enable clinicians to gain in-depth insights into the patterns in the datasets.Developing such a system will not only allow health organizations to improve maternal health assessment processes,but also open doors for interdisciplinary research in two different fields in the region.
文摘Metamaterial Antenna is a special class of antennas that uses metamaterial to enhance their performance.Antenna size affects the quality factor and the radiation loss of the antenna.Metamaterial antennas can overcome the limitation of bandwidth for small antennas.Machine learning(ML)model is recently applied to predict antenna parameters.ML can be used as an alternative approach to the trial-and-error process of finding proper parameters of the simulated antenna.The accuracy of the prediction depends mainly on the selected model.Ensemble models combine two or more base models to produce a better-enhanced model.In this paper,a weighted average ensemble model is proposed to predict the bandwidth of the Metamaterial Antenna.Two base models are used namely:Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)and Support Vector Machines(SVM).To calculate the weights for each model,an optimization algorithm is used to find the optimal weights of the ensemble.Dynamic Group-Based Cooperative Optimizer(DGCO)is employed to search for optimal weight for the base models.The proposed model is compared with three based models and the average ensemble model.The results show that the proposed model is better than other models and can predict antenna bandwidth efficiently.
基金The authors received funding for this study from the Deputyship for Research&Innovation,Ministry of Education in Saudi Arabia for funding this research work through the project number(IFP2021-033).
文摘Employing machine learning techniques in predicting the parameters of metamaterial antennas has a significant impact on the reduction of the time needed to design an antenna with optimal parameters using simulation tools.In this paper,we propose a new approach for predicting the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna using a novel ensemble model.The proposed ensemble model is composed of two levels of regression models.The first level consists of three strong models namely,random forest,support vector regression,and light gradient boosting machine.Whereas the second level is based on the ElasticNet regression model,which receives the prediction results from the models in the first level for refinement and producing the final optimal result.To achieve the best performance of these regression models,the advanced squirrel search optimization algorithm(ASSOA)is utilized to search for the optimal set of hyper-parameters of each model.Experimental results show that the proposed two-level ensemble model could achieve a robust prediction of the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna when compared with the recently published ensemble models based on the same publicly available benchmark dataset.The findings indicate that the proposed approach results in root mean square error(RMSE)of(0.013),mean absolute error(MAE)of(0.004),and mean bias error(MBE)of(0.0017).These results are superior to the other competing ensemble models and can predict the antenna bandwidth more accurately.
基金funding from RUIYI emergency medical research fund(202013)Open Foundation of Artificial Intelligence Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province(2020RYY03)+1 种基金Research project of Health and Family Planning Commission of Sichuan Province(17PJ136)funding from Key Research&Development project of Zhejiang Province(2021C03071).
文摘Predictive analytics have been widely used in the literature with respect to laparoscopic surgery and risk stratification.However,most predictive analytics in this field exploit generalized linearmodels for predictive purposes,which are limited by model assumptionsdincluding linearity between response variables and additive interactions between variables.In many instances,such assumptions may not hold true,and the complex relationship between predictors and response variables is usually unknown.To address this limitation,machine-learning algorithms can be employed to model the underlying data.The advantage of machine learning algorithms is that they usually do not require strict assumptions regarding data structure,and they are able to learn complex functional forms using a nonparametric approach.Furthermore,two or more machine learning algorithms can be synthesized to further improve predictive accuracy.Such a process is referred to as ensemble modeling,and it has been used broadly in various industries.However,this approach has not been widely reported in the laparoscopic surgical literature due to its complexity in both model training and interpretation.With this technical note,we provide a comprehensive overview of the ensemble-modeling technique and a step-by-step tutorial on how to implement ensemble modeling.
基金This research was financially supported by the Ministry of Small and Mediumsized Enterprises(SMEs)and Startups(MSS),Korea,under the“Regional Specialized Industry Development Program(R&D,S2855401)”supervised by the Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology(KIAT).
文摘Despite the advancement within the last decades in the field of smart grids,energy consumption forecasting utilizing the metrological features is still challenging.This paper proposes a genetic algorithm-based adaptive error curve learning ensemble(GA-ECLE)model.The proposed technique copes with the stochastic variations of improving energy consumption forecasting using a machine learning-based ensembled approach.A modified ensemble model based on a utilizing error of model as a feature is used to improve the forecast accuracy.This approach combines three models,namely CatBoost(CB),Gradient Boost(GB),and Multilayer Perceptron(MLP).The ensembled CB-GB-MLP model’s inner mechanism consists of generating a meta-data from Gradient Boosting and CatBoost models to compute the final predictions using the Multilayer Perceptron network.A genetic algorithm is used to obtain the optimal features to be used for the model.To prove the proposed model’s effectiveness,we have used a four-phase technique using Jeju island’s real energy consumption data.In the first phase,we have obtained the results by applying the CB-GB-MLP model.In the second phase,we have utilized a GA-ensembled model with optimal features.The third phase is for the comparison of the energy forecasting result with the proposed ECL-based model.The fourth stage is the final stage,where we have applied the GA-ECLE model.We obtained a mean absolute error of 3.05,and a root mean square error of 5.05.Extensive experimental results are provided,demonstrating the superiority of the proposed GA-ECLE model over traditional ensemble models.
基金Supported partially by the Post Doctoral Natural Science Foundation of China(2013M532118,2015T81082)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61573364,61273177,61503066)+2 种基金the State Key Laboratory of Synthetical Automation for Process Industriesthe National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2015AA043802)the Scientific Research Fund of Liaoning Provincial Education Department(L2013272)
文摘Strong mechanical vibration and acoustical signals of grinding process contain useful information related to load parameters in ball mills. It is a challenge to extract latent features and construct soft sensor model with high dimensional frequency spectra of these signals. This paper aims to develop a selective ensemble modeling approach based on nonlinear latent frequency spectral feature extraction for accurate measurement of material to ball volume ratio. Latent features are first extracted from different vibrations and acoustic spectral segments by kernel partial least squares. Algorithms of bootstrap and least squares support vector machines are employed to produce candidate sub-models using these latent features as inputs. Ensemble sub-models are selected based on genetic algorithm optimization toolbox. Partial least squares regression is used to combine these sub-models to eliminate collinearity among their prediction outputs. Results indicate that the proposed modeling approach has better prediction performance than previous ones.
文摘COVID-19 has caused severe health complications and produced a substantial adverse economic impact around the world.Forecasting the trend of COVID-19 infections could help in executing policies to effectively reduce the number of new cases.In this study,we apply the decomposition and ensemble model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases,deaths,and recoveries in Pakistan for the upcoming month until the end of July.For the decomposition of data,the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD)technique is applied.EEMD decomposes the data into small components,called Intrinsic Mode Functions(IMFs).For individual IMFs modelling,we use the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model.The data used in this study is obtained from the official website of Pakistan that is publicly available and designated for COVID-19 outbreak with daily updates.Our analyses reveal that the number of recoveries,new cases,and deaths are increasing in Pakistan exponentially.Based on the selected EEMD-ARIMA model,the new confirmed cases are expected to rise from 213,470 to 311,454 by 31 July 2020,which is an increase of almost 1.46 times with a 95%prediction interval of 246,529 to 376,379.The 95%prediction interval for recovery is 162,414 to 224,579,with an increase of almost two times in total from 100802 to 193495 by 31 July 2020.On the other hand,the deaths are expected to increase from 4395 to 6751,which is almost 1.54 times,with a 95%prediction interval of 5617 to 7885.Thus,the COVID-19 forecasting results of Pakistan are alarming for the next month until 31 July 2020.They also confirm that the EEMD-ARIMA model is useful for the short-term forecasting of COVID-19,and that it is capable of keeping track of the real COVID-19 data in nearly all scenarios.The decomposition and ensemble strategy can be useful to help decision-makers in developing short-term strategies about the current number of disease occurrences until an appropriate vaccine is developed.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology,Taiwan,under Grant MOST 110-2218-E-194-010。
文摘Numerous factors affect the increased temperature of a machine tool, including prolonged and high-intensity usage,tool-workpiece interaction, mechanical friction, and elevated ambient temperatures, among others. Consequently,spindle thermal displacement occurs, and machining precision suffers. To prevent the errors caused by thetemperature rise of the Spindle fromaffecting the accuracy during themachining process, typically, the factory willwarm up themachine before themanufacturing process.However, if there is noway to understand the tool spindle’sthermal deformation, the machining quality will be greatly affected. In order to solve the above problem, thisstudy aims to predict the thermal displacement of the machine tool by using intelligent algorithms. In the practicalapplication, only a few temperature sensors are used to input the information into the prediction model for realtimethermal displacement prediction. This approach has greatly improved the quality of tool processing.However,each algorithm has different performances in different environments. In this study, an ensemble model is used tointegrate Long Short-TermMemory (LSTM) with Support VectorMachine (SVM). The experimental results showthat the prediction performance of LSTM-SVM is higher than that of other machine learning algorithms.
基金Sponsored by the National Outstanding Young Investigator Grant (Grant No6970025)the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation (GrantNo59937150)+2 种基金863 High Tech Development Plan (Grant No2001AA413910)of China and the Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation(Grant No59937150)the Project of National Natural Science Foundation (Grant No60274054)
文摘A revised support vector regression (SVR) ensemble model based on boosting algorithm (SVR-Boosting) is presented in this paper for electricity price forecasting in electric power market. In the light of characteristics of electricity price sequence, a new triangular-shaped 为oss function is constructed in the training of the forecasting model to inhibit the learning from abnormal data in electricity price sequence. The results from actual data indicate that, compared with the single support vector regression model, the proposed SVR-Boosting ensemble model is able to enhance the stability of the model output remarkably, acquire higher predicting accuracy, and possess comparatively satisfactory generalization capability.
基金This work is supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2572019BH03).
文摘Stance detection is the task of attitude identification toward a standpoint.Previous work of stance detection has focused on feature extraction but ignored the fact that irrelevant features exist as noise during higher-level abstracting.Moreover,because the target is not always mentioned in the text,most methods have ignored target information.In order to solve these problems,we propose a neural network ensemble method that combines the timing dependence bases on long short-term memory(LSTM)and the excellent extracting performance of convolutional neural networks(CNNs).The method can obtain multi-level features that consider both local and global features.We also introduce attention mechanisms to magnify target information-related features.Furthermore,we employ sparse coding to remove noise to obtain characteristic features.Performance was improved by using sparse coding on the basis of attention employment and feature extraction.We evaluate our approach on the SemEval-2016Task 6-A public dataset,achieving a performance that exceeds the benchmark and those of participating teams.
基金This research work was funded by Institutional Fund Projects under Grant No.(IFPIP:1614-611-1442)from the Ministry of Education and King Abdulaziz University,DSR,Jeddah,Saudi Arabia.
文摘Breast cancer is one of the leading cancers among women.It has the second-highest mortality rate in women after lung cancer.Timely detection,especially in the early stages,can help increase survival rates.However,manual diagnosis of breast cancer is a tedious and time-consuming process,and the accuracy of detection is reliant on the quality of the images and the radiologist’s experience.However,computer-aided medical diagnosis has recently shown promising results,leading to the need to develop an efficient system that can aid radiologists in diagnosing breast cancer in its early stages.The research presented in this paper is focused on the multi-class classification of breast cancer.The deep transfer learning approach has been utilized to train the deep learning models,and a pre-processing technique has been used to improve the quality of the ultrasound dataset.The proposed technique utilizes two deep learning models,Mobile-NetV2 and DenseNet201,for the composition of the deep ensemble model.Deep learning models are fine-tuned along with hyperparameter tuning to achieve better results.Subsequently,entropy-based feature selection is used.Breast cancer identification using the proposed classification approach was found to attain an accuracy of 97.04%,while the sensitivity and F1 score were 96.87%and 96.76%,respectively.The performance of the proposed model is very effective and outperforms other state-of-the-art techniques presented in the literature.
文摘Covid-19 is a deadly virus that is rapidly spread around the world towards the end of the 2020.The consequences of this virus are quite frightening,especially when accompanied by an underlying disease.The novelty of the virus,the constant emergence of different variants and its rapid spread have a negative impact on the control and treatment process.Although the new test kits provide almost certain results,chest X-rays are extremely important to detect the progression and degree of the disease.In addition to the Covid-19 virus,pneumonia and harmless opacity of the lungs also complicate the diagnosis.Considering the negative results caused by the virus and the treatment costs,the importance of fast and accurate diagnosis is clearly seen.In this context,deep learning methods appear as an extremely popular approach.In this study,a hybrid model design with superior properties of convolutional neural networks is presented to correctly classify the Covid-19 disease.In addition,in order to contribute to the literature,a suitable dataset with balanced case numbers that can be used in all artificial intelligence classification studies is presented.With this ensemble model design,quite remarkable results are obtained for the diagnosis of three and four-class Covid-19.The proposed model can classify normal,pneumonia,and Covid-19 with 92.6%accuracy and 82.6%for normal,pneumonia,Covid-19,and lung opacity.
基金the University of Transport Technology under the project entitled“Application of Machine Learning Algorithms in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping in Mountainous Areas”with grant number DTTD2022-16.
文摘This study was aimed to prepare landslide susceptibility maps for the Pithoragarh district in Uttarakhand,India,using advanced ensemble models that combined Radial Basis Function Networks(RBFN)with three ensemble learning techniques:DAGGING(DG),MULTIBOOST(MB),and ADABOOST(AB).This combination resulted in three distinct ensemble models:DG-RBFN,MB-RBFN,and AB-RBFN.Additionally,a traditional weighted method,Information Value(IV),and a benchmark machine learning(ML)model,Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network(MLP),were employed for comparison and validation.The models were developed using ten landslide conditioning factors,which included slope,aspect,elevation,curvature,land cover,geomorphology,overburden depth,lithology,distance to rivers and distance to roads.These factors were instrumental in predicting the output variable,which was the probability of landslide occurrence.Statistical analysis of the models’performance indicated that the DG-RBFN model,with an Area Under ROC Curve(AUC)of 0.931,outperformed the other models.The AB-RBFN model achieved an AUC of 0.929,the MB-RBFN model had an AUC of 0.913,and the MLP model recorded an AUC of 0.926.These results suggest that the advanced ensemble ML model DG-RBFN was more accurate than traditional statistical model,single MLP model,and other ensemble models in preparing trustworthy landslide susceptibility maps,thereby enhancing land use planning and decision-making.
基金supported by General Scientific Research Funding of the Science and Technology Development Fund(FDCT)in Macao(No.0150/2022/A)the Faculty Research Grants of Macao University of Science and Technology(No.FRG-22-074-FIE).
文摘With the rapid development of economy,air pollution caused by industrial expansion has caused serious harm to human health and social development.Therefore,establishing an effective air pollution concentration prediction system is of great scientific and practical significance for accurate and reliable predictions.This paper proposes a combination of pointinterval prediction system for pollutant concentration prediction by leveraging neural network,meta-heuristic optimization algorithm,and fuzzy theory.Fuzzy information granulation technology is used in data preprocessing to transform numerical sequences into fuzzy particles for comprehensive feature extraction.The golden Jackal optimization algorithm is employed in the optimization stage to fine-tune model hyperparameters.In the prediction stage,an ensemble learning method combines training results frommultiplemodels to obtain final point predictions while also utilizing quantile regression and kernel density estimation methods for interval predictions on the test set.Experimental results demonstrate that the combined model achieves a high goodness of fit coefficient of determination(R^(2))at 99.3% and a maximum difference between prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)and benchmark model at 12.6%.This suggests that the integrated learning system proposed in this paper can provide more accurate deterministic predictions as well as reliable uncertainty analysis compared to traditionalmodels,offering practical reference for air quality early warning.
文摘Detection of cracks in concrete structures is critical for their safety and the sustainability of maintenance processes.Traditional inspection techniques are costly,time-consuming,and inefficient regarding human resources.Deep learning architectures have become more widespread in recent years by accelerating these processes and increasing their efficiency.Deep learning models(DLMs)stand out as an effective solution in crack detection due to their features such as end-to-end learning capability,model adaptation,and automatic learning processes.However,providing an optimal balance between model performance and computational efficiency of DLMs is a vital research topic.In this article,three different methods are proposed for detecting cracks in concrete structures.In the first method,a Separable Convolutional with Attention and Multi-layer Enhanced Fusion Network(SCAMEFNet)deep neural network,which has a deep architecture and can provide a balance between the depth of DLMs and model parameters,has been developed.This model was designed using a convolutional neural network,multi-head attention,and various fusion techniques.The second method proposes a modified vision transformer(ViT)model.A two-stage ensemble learning model,deep featurebased two-stage ensemble model(DFTSEM),is proposed in the third method.In this method,deep features and machine learning methods are used.The proposed approaches are evaluated using the Concrete Cracks Image Data set,which the authors collected and contains concrete cracks on building surfaces.The results show that the SCAMEFNet model achieved an accuracy rate of 98.83%,the ViT model 97.33%,and the DFTSEM model 99.00%.These findings show that the proposed techniques successfully detect surface cracks and deformations and can provide practical solutions to realworld problems.In addition,the developed methods can contribute as a tool for BIM platforms in smart cities for building health.
基金Project(2024JJ2074) supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,ChinaProject(22376221) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2023QNRC001) supported by the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST,China。
文摘Driven by rapid technological advancements and economic growth,mineral extraction and metal refining have increased dramatically,generating huge volumes of tailings and mine waste(TMWs).Investigating the morphological fractions of heavy metals and metalloids(HMMs)in TMWs is key to evaluating their leaching potential into the environment;however,traditional experiments are time-consuming and labor-intensive.In this study,10 machine learning(ML)algorithms were used and compared for rapidly predicting the morphological fractions of HMMs in TMWs.A dataset comprising 2376 data points was used,with mineral composition,elemental properties,and total concentration used as inputs and concentration of morphological fraction used as output.After grid search optimization,the extra tree model performed the best,achieving coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.946 and 0.942 on the validation and test sets,respectively.Electronegativity was found to have the greatest impact on the morphological fraction.The models’performance was enhanced by applying an ensemble method to the top three optimal ML models,including gradient boosting decision tree,extra trees and categorical boosting.Overall,the proposed framework can accurately predict the concentrations of different morphological fractions of HMMs in TMWs.This approach can minimize detection time,aid in the safe management and recovery of TMWs.
文摘Sentence classification is the process of categorizing a sentence based on the context of the sentence.Sentence categorization requires more semantic highlights than other tasks,such as dependence parsing,which requires more syntactic elements.Most existing strategies focus on the general semantics of a conversation without involving the context of the sentence,recognizing the progress and comparing impacts.An ensemble pre-trained language model was taken up here to classify the conversation sentences from the conversation corpus.The conversational sentences are classified into four categories:information,question,directive,and commission.These classification label sequences are for analyzing the conversation progress and predicting the pecking order of the conversation.Ensemble of Bidirectional Encoder for Representation of Transformer(BERT),Robustly Optimized BERT pretraining Approach(RoBERTa),Generative Pre-Trained Transformer(GPT),DistilBERT and Generalized Autoregressive Pretraining for Language Understanding(XLNet)models are trained on conversation corpus with hyperparameters.Hyperparameter tuning approach is carried out for better performance on sentence classification.This Ensemble of Pre-trained Language Models with a Hyperparameter Tuning(EPLM-HT)system is trained on an annotated conversation dataset.The proposed approach outperformed compared to the base BERT,GPT,DistilBERT and XLNet transformer models.The proposed ensemble model with the fine-tuned parameters achieved an F1_score of 0.88.
基金supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2022R1I1A3063493).
文摘Smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 are transforming traditional manufacturing processes by utilizing innovative technologies such as the artificial intelligence(AI)and internet of things(IoT)to enhance efficiency,reduce costs,and ensure product quality.In light of the recent advancement of Industry 4.0,identifying defects has become important for ensuring the quality of products during the manufacturing process.In this research,we present an ensemble methodology for accurately classifying hot rolled steel surface defects by combining the strengths of four pre-trained convolutional neural network(CNN)architectures:VGG16,VGG19,Xception,and Mobile-Net V2,compensating for their individual weaknesses.We evaluated our methodology on the Xsteel surface defect dataset(XSDD),which comprises seven different classes.The ensemble methodology integrated the predictions of individual models through two methods:model averaging and weighted averaging.Our evaluation showed that the model averaging ensemble achieved an accuracy of 98.89%,a recall of 98.92%,a precision of 99.05%,and an F1-score of 98.97%,while the weighted averaging ensemble reached an accuracy of 99.72%,a recall of 99.74%,a precision of 99.67%,and an F1-score of 99.70%.The proposed weighted averaging ensemble model outperformed the model averaging method and the individual models in detecting defects in terms of accuracy,recall,precision,and F1-score.Comparative analysis with recent studies also showed the superior performance of our methodology.
文摘In this study,a machine learning-based predictive model was developed for the Musa petti Wind Farm in Sri Lanka to address the need for localized forecasting solutions.Using data on wind speed,air temperature,nacelle position,and actual power,lagged features were generated to capture temporal dependencies.Among 24 evaluated models,the ensemble bagging approach achieved the best performance,with R^(2) values of 0.89 at 0 min and 0.75 at 60 min.Shapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis revealed that while wind speed is the primary driver for short-term predictions,air temperature and nacelle position become more influential at longer forecasting horizons.These findings underscore the reliability of short-term predictions and the potential benefits of integrating hybrid AI and probabilistic models for extended forecasts.Our work contributes a robust and explainable framework to support Sri Lanka’s renewable energy transition,and future research will focus on real-time deployment and uncertainty quantification.
