Urban expansion in semi-arid regions poses critical challenges for sustainable land management,ecological resilience,and heritage conservation.Jaipur,India-a United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organiza...Urban expansion in semi-arid regions poses critical challenges for sustainable land management,ecological resilience,and heritage conservation.Jaipur,India-a United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)World Heritage City located in a semi-arid environment-faces rapid urbanization that threatens agricultural productivity,fragile ecosystems,and cultural assets.This study quantifies past and projects future land use/land cover(LULC)dynamics in Jaipur to support evidence-based planning.Using theDynamicWorld dataset,we generated annual 10-m LULC maps from 2016 to 2025 within the municipal boundary.Temporal change detection was conducted through empirical transition probability analysis,and future scenarios for 2026-2030 were simulated with a Markov chain model coupled with a neighbour-aware cellular automata(CA-Markov)allocation to capture spatial diffusion and terrain constraints.Validation on a 2025 hold-out achieved an Overall Accuracy of 0.79,Cohen’sκof 0.15,and a figure of Merit of 0.073 for built-up gains,confirming credible localization of urban growth.Results reveal that the built-up area expanded from 340.57 km^(2) in 2016 to 387.25 km^(2) in 2025(+13.71%)and is projected to rise by+44.96%by 2030.Over 2016-2025,cropland declined by−40.83%,shrub/scrub by−27.71%,tree cover by−4.12%,and flooded vegetation by−41.28%,while bare ground(+3.14%),grass(−4.22%),and water(~+0.18%)showed minimal change.Forecasts for 2016-2030 indicate severe contractions in crops(−98.40%),shrub/scrub(−93.10%),trees(−80.44%),grass(−95.36%),water(−99.53%),bare ground(−99.51%),and flooded vegetation(−99.80%).These findings highlight an accelerating transformation of Jaipur’s peri-urban landscape,with built-up expansion occurring at the expense of nearly all productive and ecological land classes.The study demonstrates that CA-Markov-based LULC forecasting provides a reproducible and transparent framework for high-frequency monitoring and offers actionable insights for sustainable urban management in heritage cities under rapid growth pressure.展开更多
The statement that the world’s ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating due to human intervention and global warming is nowadays commonplace.Some of the ecosystems most heavily impacted are inland salt lakes.The salt lak...The statement that the world’s ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating due to human intervention and global warming is nowadays commonplace.Some of the ecosystems most heavily impacted are inland salt lakes.The salt lakes are among the most valuable and fascinating ecosystems on Earth,and their study has both basic scientifi c interest as well as applied aspects.展开更多
In an addition to the variety of topics in aims and scope of the Journal of International Relations and Diplomacy, we would be happy to offer here some more areas in line with its general orientation, which could be w...In an addition to the variety of topics in aims and scope of the Journal of International Relations and Diplomacy, we would be happy to offer here some more areas in line with its general orientation, which could be worth investigating, encouraging more paper submissions. These relate to effective organization of large distributed dynamic systems of diverse natures which may require innovative solutions reflecting the growing world dynamics in the 21 st century with emerging challenges and threats to local and global prosperity, stability, and safety.展开更多
文摘Urban expansion in semi-arid regions poses critical challenges for sustainable land management,ecological resilience,and heritage conservation.Jaipur,India-a United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)World Heritage City located in a semi-arid environment-faces rapid urbanization that threatens agricultural productivity,fragile ecosystems,and cultural assets.This study quantifies past and projects future land use/land cover(LULC)dynamics in Jaipur to support evidence-based planning.Using theDynamicWorld dataset,we generated annual 10-m LULC maps from 2016 to 2025 within the municipal boundary.Temporal change detection was conducted through empirical transition probability analysis,and future scenarios for 2026-2030 were simulated with a Markov chain model coupled with a neighbour-aware cellular automata(CA-Markov)allocation to capture spatial diffusion and terrain constraints.Validation on a 2025 hold-out achieved an Overall Accuracy of 0.79,Cohen’sκof 0.15,and a figure of Merit of 0.073 for built-up gains,confirming credible localization of urban growth.Results reveal that the built-up area expanded from 340.57 km^(2) in 2016 to 387.25 km^(2) in 2025(+13.71%)and is projected to rise by+44.96%by 2030.Over 2016-2025,cropland declined by−40.83%,shrub/scrub by−27.71%,tree cover by−4.12%,and flooded vegetation by−41.28%,while bare ground(+3.14%),grass(−4.22%),and water(~+0.18%)showed minimal change.Forecasts for 2016-2030 indicate severe contractions in crops(−98.40%),shrub/scrub(−93.10%),trees(−80.44%),grass(−95.36%),water(−99.53%),bare ground(−99.51%),and flooded vegetation(−99.80%).These findings highlight an accelerating transformation of Jaipur’s peri-urban landscape,with built-up expansion occurring at the expense of nearly all productive and ecological land classes.The study demonstrates that CA-Markov-based LULC forecasting provides a reproducible and transparent framework for high-frequency monitoring and offers actionable insights for sustainable urban management in heritage cities under rapid growth pressure.
文摘The statement that the world’s ecosystems are rapidly deteriorating due to human intervention and global warming is nowadays commonplace.Some of the ecosystems most heavily impacted are inland salt lakes.The salt lakes are among the most valuable and fascinating ecosystems on Earth,and their study has both basic scientifi c interest as well as applied aspects.
文摘In an addition to the variety of topics in aims and scope of the Journal of International Relations and Diplomacy, we would be happy to offer here some more areas in line with its general orientation, which could be worth investigating, encouraging more paper submissions. These relate to effective organization of large distributed dynamic systems of diverse natures which may require innovative solutions reflecting the growing world dynamics in the 21 st century with emerging challenges and threats to local and global prosperity, stability, and safety.
