As multi-discipline coupling and components interference often affect the aircraft configuration decision-making and analysis during conceptual design process, this article presents an approach of multidimensional gam...As multi-discipline coupling and components interference often affect the aircraft configuration decision-making and analysis during conceptual design process, this article presents an approach of multidimensional game theory based on aircraft compo- nents to deal with this problem. The idea is that the configuration decision-making process is regarded as the game for different disciplines and technologies, and the aircraft components are players. The payoff function with highest total gain means that ac- cording to the game protocols and multidimensional theory, the optimal aircraft configuration within the strategy set will be cho- sen. The decision-making model is applied to conceptual design process of the high altitude long endurance （HALE） unmanned aerial vehicle （UAV） based on the assessment of technological risk. The obtained optimum configuration is quite consistent with the current HALE UAV development trends. Thus, taking into account the coupling and interference factors, the multidimensional gaming model based on aircraft components will be an effective analysis method in the decision-making process of aircraft optimum configuration.展开更多
A slope stability evaluation method is proposed combining group decision theory,the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The index weight assignment of each evaluation element is determined by...A slope stability evaluation method is proposed combining group decision theory,the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The index weight assignment of each evaluation element is determined by group decision theory and the analytic hierarchy process,and the membership degree of each indicator is determined based on fuzzy set theory.According to the weights and memberships,the membership degrees of the criterion layer are obtained by fuzzy operations to evaluate the slope stability.The results show that(1)the evaluation method comprehensively combines the effects of multiple factors on the slope stability,and the evaluation results are accurate;(2)the evaluation method can fully leverage the experience of the expert group and effectively avoid evaluation errors caused by the subjective bias of a single expert;(3)based on a group decision theory entropy model,this evaluation method can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of expert decisions and effectively improve the efficiency of expert group discussion;and(4)the evaluation method can transform the originally fuzzy and subjective slope stability evaluation into a quantitative evaluation.展开更多
Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took t...Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government＇s positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants＇ income展开更多
Research topic of this paper is to discuss theory of Human Resources Management （HRM） and to discuss using of quantitative methods in HRM. Firstly, five variables establish HRM theory. They are HRM practices, positi...Research topic of this paper is to discuss theory of Human Resources Management （HRM） and to discuss using of quantitative methods in HRM. Firstly, five variables establish HRM theory. They are HRM practices, positive organizational behaviors, individual performance, performance of business departments, and firm performance. Transactions among those variables enable Human Resources （HR） practitioners to apply HRM theory in their organizations. Secondly, this paper discusses use of quantitative methods in HRM. They are vector analysis and decision tree analysis. Those analyses enable HR practitioners to make effective HR decisions. Decision tree sets HR alternatives to efficiently implement HRM practices in organizations. Research question is how HR practitioners apply quantitative methods in department of HRM in firms. Finally this research comes out a conclusion that quantitative methods may be used in HRM.展开更多
Under the background of“Internet plus”rapid development,the agricultural logistics industry should apply information technology to every link of the agricultural product logistics industry chain.By making full use o...Under the background of“Internet plus”rapid development,the agricultural logistics industry should apply information technology to every link of the agricultural product logistics industry chain.By making full use of the decision making module of the agricultural logistics information system,we can realize the full sharing of information and data resources,which makes the decision-making scheme of the agricultural logistics information system more optimized.In real economic society,the uncertainty and mismatch between the customer’s logistics service demand and the logistics service capability that the logistics service function provider can provide,that is,when the two information are asymmetric,how to use the third-party contract to coordinate the income and profit distribution of the two,to make the information system decision making more reasonable?This paper mainly studies the coordination scheme of agricultural logistics information system decision making under uncertain output and demand information by introducing the spot market.A joint coordination strategy based on revenue sharing and penalty feedback contracts proposes decentralized decision making based on game theory.Experiments show that the flexible ordering strategy proposed in this paper can reduce the logistics service supply chain’s uncertainty and significantly improve the logistics service supply chain’s overall income level through coordination contracts.展开更多
This paper introduces a new game theoretic equilibrium which is based upon the Bayesian subjective view of probability, BEIC （Bayesian equilibrium iterative conjectures）. It requires players to make predictions, sta...This paper introduces a new game theoretic equilibrium which is based upon the Bayesian subjective view of probability, BEIC （Bayesian equilibrium iterative conjectures）. It requires players to make predictions, starting from first order uninformative predictive distribution functions （or conjectures） and keep updating with statistical decision theoretic and game theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is achieved. Information known by the players such as the reaction functions are thereby incorporated into their higher order conjectures and help to determine the convergent conjectures and the equilibrium. In a BEIC, conjectures are consistent with the equilibrium or equilibriums they supported and so rationality is achieved for actions, strategies and conjectures. The BEIC approach is capable of analyzing a larger set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with unstable equilibrium and games with double or multiple sided incomplete information games. On the other hand, for the set of games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique equilibrium. It treats games with complete and perfect information as special cases of games with incomplete information and noisy observation whereby the variance of the prior distribution function on type and the variance of the observation noise term tend to zero. Consequently, there is the issue of indeterminacy in statistical inference and decision making in these games as the equilibrium solution depends on which variances tends to zero first. It therefore identifies equilibriums in these games that have so far eluded the classical theory of games. Finally, it also resolves inconsistencies in equilibrium results by different solution concepts in current games theory such as that between Nash Equilibrium and iterative elimination of dominated strategies and that between Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium and backward induction （Subgame Perfect Equilibrium）.展开更多
Social media has emerged as a major global influence on consumer behavior in recent years.User-generated,interactive content is made possible by platforms like Facebook,Instagram,YouTube,and TikTok,and it has a big im...Social media has emerged as a major global influence on consumer behavior in recent years.User-generated,interactive content is made possible by platforms like Facebook,Instagram,YouTube,and TikTok,and it has a big impact on opinions and buying decisions.Therefore,the objective of this research was to examine the influence of social media(online reviews,social media influencers,eWOM,advertisements,social media usage laws,and information)on consumers’purchase decisions of electronic products.Guided by the theory of planned behavior and social influence theory,a quantitative approach was used,with data collected via a structured questionnaire from 150 respondents over four weeks.Analysis was conducted using SPSS 30.SPSS analysis demonstrated that social media usage laws and social media influencers had a strong positive correlation with consumers’purchase decisions,highlighting their pivotal role in shaping preferences and disseminating information.Reliable and accessible product information also emerged as a significant predictor of consumer choices.In contrast,online reviews,eWOM,and advertisements exhibited minimal influence within this context or might have adverse influence.This article provides guidelines for electronic products to prioritize social media strategies,invest in high-quality information dissemination,and leverage influencer partnerships to effectively engage consumers and drive sales.展开更多
Based on the prospect theory, a novel linguisticdecision method under risk is proposed. First, the alternativesunder each risk state are rated using linguistic terms, and＇ thelinguistic decision matrix is constructed...Based on the prospect theory, a novel linguisticdecision method under risk is proposed. First, the alternativesunder each risk state are rated using linguistic terms, and＇ thelinguistic decision matrix is constructed. Secondly, thelinguistic terms are transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers,so that the linguistic evaluations can be changed into numericalforms. Thirdly, with the aid of the prospect theory, theprobability weight functions and the linguistic value functionscan be computed, based on which the prospective values of thealternatives are obtained. Finally, the alternatives are rankedwith respect to the prospective values combined of probabilityweight and linguistic value functions. Thus, the optimalchoice is made. The decision process takes the psychologicalpreferences of the decision maker into consideration. Thepracticality of the proposed method is illustrated through anapplication on stock selection problems.展开更多
In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a pr...In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a process from precise to fuzzy and then from fuzzy to precise,and the model fitted this process well. The model was used in a Warfare Simulation System whose object is to evaluate the effectiveness of the military C3I systems.展开更多
The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transpor...The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transport,International Maritime Organization stipulates that the sulfur content of ship emissions will reach 0.5 from 2020.With the approaching of the stipulated implementation date,shipowners need to adopt scientific methods to make decision on low sulfur fuel.In this study,we applied a prospect theory based hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model to obtain the optimal decision of low Sulphur marine fuel.For this purpose,the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is established to collect expert opinions,the maximizing deviation method is adopted to determine criteria weights.According to calculate the Euclidean distance from the reference points,we obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.Lastly,a case study is carried out to illustrate the significance and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The innovation of this study is that it is the first-time adopting prospect theory and hesitate fuzzy sets to multi-criteria decision making for low Sulphur marine fuel,which provides an effective decision model for shipping companies under Low Sulphur regulations,and can also be extended to other industries.展开更多
Behavioral finance theory is constantly relaxing or even abandons traditional financial theory rational man assumptions and the efficient market hypothesis, based on the decision-making process to the actual person＇s...Behavioral finance theory is constantly relaxing or even abandons traditional financial theory rational man assumptions and the efficient market hypothesis, based on the decision-making process to the actual person＇s psychological characteristics as variables studied financial market vision, such as asset pricing and portfolio a series of questions theoretical system. In this paper, from home and abroad on behavioral finance theory, based on the current situation in our country from the company＇s investment policy analysis behavioral finance theory in corporate finance in the application, in order for some of our corporate decision makers to provide a non-decision against the company fully rational and non-efficient market investment strategy.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to look at some important educational aspects of complexity decision making m a mummsc^pnnary manner from the perspective of General Systems Theory （GST）. First, the major issues involved in...The aim of this paper is to look at some important educational aspects of complexity decision making m a mummsc^pnnary manner from the perspective of General Systems Theory （GST）. First, the major issues involved in complexity management and decision making are summarized as they are viewed in literature, and a review of GST and Systems Thinking is given. The discussion in the paper is developed within the context of GST in general, but concentrated on decision making in the three trends of GST： Operations Research, Cybernetics, and Managerial Cybernetics. Here, the role of Cybernetics in complexity decision making is particularly emphasized. The discussion is then extended to the latest developments in complexity decision making in Science of Complexity and Soft Systems Thinking. The study also includes a framework which is expected to guide instructors who are planning to offer contemporary courses on decision making. The framework provides some clues for assessing the level of complexity for a given situation and selecting the appropriate methodology for solution development.展开更多
Using the dynamic optimization theory, we described a decision-making model for farmer choosing land use when there are several different kinds of uses for land. To obtain an empirical model that could be easily appli...Using the dynamic optimization theory, we described a decision-making model for farmer choosing land use when there are several different kinds of uses for land. To obtain an empirical model that could be easily applied, decision rules for farmer with a single static expectation were given.展开更多
Bayes'theorem is named after the Reverend Thomas Bayes who proposed the idea in the 18th century[1].It has been adapted by scientists for many different applications.One of the applications is clinical trials,wher...Bayes'theorem is named after the Reverend Thomas Bayes who proposed the idea in the 18th century[1].It has been adapted by scientists for many different applications.One of the applications is clinical trials,where decisions are guided by clinical expertise as well as by data,especially in early phases.This paper reviews Bayes' theorem,decision theory and their applications in clinical trials.展开更多
The problem of capacity shortage in some airports needs to be dealt with sustainable solutions including a more efficient use of the existing runway slots at the airports. The Collaborative Decision Making（CDM） is a...The problem of capacity shortage in some airports needs to be dealt with sustainable solutions including a more efficient use of the existing runway slots at the airports. The Collaborative Decision Making（CDM） is an important approach applied to Air Traffic Management（ATM）to achieve this efficient use of the slots allocation. Using the Matching approach for two-sided markets of Game theory, the Top Trading Cycle CDM（TTC-CDM） algorithm developed in this research is an extension of the CDM approach aggregating the Ground Delay Program（GDP）of the air sector. The paper compared the developed TTC-CDM model to the existing models such as the conventional Compression algorithm in CDM, the Trade Cycle algorithm and the Deferred Acceptance CDM（DA-CDM） model to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. Through a case study, the results show the effective application of TTC-CDM model to slot allocation in ATM and also presents the advantage of considering the preferences of airport managers beside ATC controllers and airlines in the decision processing.展开更多
Named Data Network(NDN) has caused wide concerns in VANET community because NDN uses a content-centric mechanism that naming content rather than the host. However, integrating NDN into VANET(NDN-VANET) also faces seve...Named Data Network(NDN) has caused wide concerns in VANET community because NDN uses a content-centric mechanism that naming content rather than the host. However, integrating NDN into VANET(NDN-VANET) also faces several challenges including consumer/provider mobile, broadcast storm problem and so on. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian-based Receiver Forwarding Decision(BRFD) scheme to mitigate the broadcast storm problem incurred by interest packets in NDN-VANET. In the BRFD, vehicles received an interest packet are required to make forwarding decisions based on Bayesian decision theory according to current network conditions obtained by neighbor interaction. However, the receiver-forwarding decision in BRFD can also cause a conflict issue because multiple vehicles forward copies of the same packet at the same time. So a back-off mechanism is introduced in BRFD. Experimental results show that the BRFD algorithm has better performance in several aspects in contrast to probability-based forwarding scheme and "bread crumb" routing.展开更多
A kind of multiple attribute group decision making （MAGDM） problem is discussed from the perspective of statistic decision-making. Firstly, on the basis of the stability theory, a new idea is proposed to solve this ...A kind of multiple attribute group decision making （MAGDM） problem is discussed from the perspective of statistic decision-making. Firstly, on the basis of the stability theory, a new idea is proposed to solve this kind of problem. Secondly, a con- crete method corresponding to this kind of problem is proposed. The main tool of our research is the technique o~ the jackknife method. The main advantage of the new method is that it can identify and determine the reliability degree of the existed decision making information. Finally, a traffic engineering example is given to show the effectiveness of the new method.展开更多
Three-way decision(T-WD)theory is about thinking,problem solving,and computing in threes.Behavioral decision making(BDM)focuses on effective,cognitive,and social processes employed by humans for choosing the optimal o...Three-way decision(T-WD)theory is about thinking,problem solving,and computing in threes.Behavioral decision making(BDM)focuses on effective,cognitive,and social processes employed by humans for choosing the optimal object,of which prospect theory and regret theory are two widely used tools.The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS)captures a series of uncertainties when it is difficult to specify precise fuzzy membership grades.Guided by the principles of three-way decisions as thinking in threes and integrating these three topics together,this paper reviews and examines advances in three-way behavioral decision making(TW-BDM)with hesitant fuzzy information systems(HFIS)from the perspective of the past,present,and future.First,we provide a brief historical account of the three topics and present basic formulations.Second,we summarize the latest development trends and examine a number of basic issues,such as one-sidedness of reference points and subjective randomness for result values,and then report the results of a comparative analysis of existing methods.Finally,we point out key challenges and future research directions.展开更多
It is more and more important to analyse and process complex data for gaining more valuable knowledge and making more accurate decisions.The multigranulation decision theory based on conditional probability and cost l...It is more and more important to analyse and process complex data for gaining more valuable knowledge and making more accurate decisions.The multigranulation decision theory based on conditional probability and cost loss has the advantage of processing decision-making problems from multi-levels and multi-angles,and the neighbourhood rough set model(NRS)can facilitate the analysis and processing of numerical or mixed type data,and can address the limitation of multigranulation decision-theoretic rough sets(MG-DTRS),which is not easy to cope with complex data.Based on the in-depth study of hybrid-valued decision systems and MG-DTRS models,this study analysed neigh-bourhood MG-DTRS(NMG-DTRS)deeply by fusing MG-DTRS and NRS;a matrix-based approach for approximation sets of NMG-DTRS model was proposed on the basis of the matrix representations of concepts;the positive,boundary and negative domains were constructed from the matrix perspective,and the concept of positive decision recognition rate was introduced.Furthermore,the authors explored the related properties of NMG-DTRS model,and designed and described the corresponding solving algorithms in detail.Finally,some experimental results that were employed not only verified the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed algorithm,but also showed the relationship between the decision recognition rate and the granularity and threshold.展开更多
文摘As multi-discipline coupling and components interference often affect the aircraft configuration decision-making and analysis during conceptual design process, this article presents an approach of multidimensional game theory based on aircraft compo- nents to deal with this problem. The idea is that the configuration decision-making process is regarded as the game for different disciplines and technologies, and the aircraft components are players. The payoff function with highest total gain means that ac- cording to the game protocols and multidimensional theory, the optimal aircraft configuration within the strategy set will be cho- sen. The decision-making model is applied to conceptual design process of the high altitude long endurance （HALE） unmanned aerial vehicle （UAV） based on the assessment of technological risk. The obtained optimum configuration is quite consistent with the current HALE UAV development trends. Thus, taking into account the coupling and interference factors, the multidimensional gaming model based on aircraft components will be an effective analysis method in the decision-making process of aircraft optimum configuration.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1501302)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41630643)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.CUGCJ1701)。
文摘A slope stability evaluation method is proposed combining group decision theory,the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.The index weight assignment of each evaluation element is determined by group decision theory and the analytic hierarchy process,and the membership degree of each indicator is determined based on fuzzy set theory.According to the weights and memberships,the membership degrees of the criterion layer are obtained by fuzzy operations to evaluate the slope stability.The results show that(1)the evaluation method comprehensively combines the effects of multiple factors on the slope stability,and the evaluation results are accurate;(2)the evaluation method can fully leverage the experience of the expert group and effectively avoid evaluation errors caused by the subjective bias of a single expert;(3)based on a group decision theory entropy model,this evaluation method can quantitatively evaluate the reliability of expert decisions and effectively improve the efficiency of expert group discussion;and(4)the evaluation method can transform the originally fuzzy and subjective slope stability evaluation into a quantitative evaluation.
文摘Unbalanced agricultural production decision becomes the great block that influences the effective distribution of social resources, national grain security, social stability and economic development. This paper took the game theory as an analyzed tool to describe the interactional processes among the peasants, and set up the game theory model of independent decision and joint decision by peasants. It was shown that the government＇s positive guide and the market environment macroscopically controlled by the government could effectively increased the peasants＇ income
文摘Research topic of this paper is to discuss theory of Human Resources Management （HRM） and to discuss using of quantitative methods in HRM. Firstly, five variables establish HRM theory. They are HRM practices, positive organizational behaviors, individual performance, performance of business departments, and firm performance. Transactions among those variables enable Human Resources （HR） practitioners to apply HRM theory in their organizations. Secondly, this paper discusses use of quantitative methods in HRM. They are vector analysis and decision tree analysis. Those analyses enable HR practitioners to make effective HR decisions. Decision tree sets HR alternatives to efficiently implement HRM practices in organizations. Research question is how HR practitioners apply quantitative methods in department of HRM in firms. Finally this research comes out a conclusion that quantitative methods may be used in HRM.
基金The Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program(ASTIP-IAED-2021-08).
文摘Under the background of“Internet plus”rapid development,the agricultural logistics industry should apply information technology to every link of the agricultural product logistics industry chain.By making full use of the decision making module of the agricultural logistics information system,we can realize the full sharing of information and data resources,which makes the decision-making scheme of the agricultural logistics information system more optimized.In real economic society,the uncertainty and mismatch between the customer’s logistics service demand and the logistics service capability that the logistics service function provider can provide,that is,when the two information are asymmetric,how to use the third-party contract to coordinate the income and profit distribution of the two,to make the information system decision making more reasonable?This paper mainly studies the coordination scheme of agricultural logistics information system decision making under uncertain output and demand information by introducing the spot market.A joint coordination strategy based on revenue sharing and penalty feedback contracts proposes decentralized decision making based on game theory.Experiments show that the flexible ordering strategy proposed in this paper can reduce the logistics service supply chain’s uncertainty and significantly improve the logistics service supply chain’s overall income level through coordination contracts.
文摘This paper introduces a new game theoretic equilibrium which is based upon the Bayesian subjective view of probability, BEIC （Bayesian equilibrium iterative conjectures）. It requires players to make predictions, starting from first order uninformative predictive distribution functions （or conjectures） and keep updating with statistical decision theoretic and game theoretic reasoning until a convergence of conjectures is achieved. Information known by the players such as the reaction functions are thereby incorporated into their higher order conjectures and help to determine the convergent conjectures and the equilibrium. In a BEIC, conjectures are consistent with the equilibrium or equilibriums they supported and so rationality is achieved for actions, strategies and conjectures. The BEIC approach is capable of analyzing a larger set of games than current Nash Equilibrium based games theory, including games with inaccurate observations, games with unstable equilibrium and games with double or multiple sided incomplete information games. On the other hand, for the set of games analyzed by the current games theory, it generates far lesser equilibriums and normally generates only a unique equilibrium. It treats games with complete and perfect information as special cases of games with incomplete information and noisy observation whereby the variance of the prior distribution function on type and the variance of the observation noise term tend to zero. Consequently, there is the issue of indeterminacy in statistical inference and decision making in these games as the equilibrium solution depends on which variances tends to zero first. It therefore identifies equilibriums in these games that have so far eluded the classical theory of games. Finally, it also resolves inconsistencies in equilibrium results by different solution concepts in current games theory such as that between Nash Equilibrium and iterative elimination of dominated strategies and that between Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium and backward induction （Subgame Perfect Equilibrium）.
文摘Social media has emerged as a major global influence on consumer behavior in recent years.User-generated,interactive content is made possible by platforms like Facebook,Instagram,YouTube,and TikTok,and it has a big impact on opinions and buying decisions.Therefore,the objective of this research was to examine the influence of social media(online reviews,social media influencers,eWOM,advertisements,social media usage laws,and information)on consumers’purchase decisions of electronic products.Guided by the theory of planned behavior and social influence theory,a quantitative approach was used,with data collected via a structured questionnaire from 150 respondents over four weeks.Analysis was conducted using SPSS 30.SPSS analysis demonstrated that social media usage laws and social media influencers had a strong positive correlation with consumers’purchase decisions,highlighting their pivotal role in shaping preferences and disseminating information.Reliable and accessible product information also emerged as a significant predictor of consumer choices.In contrast,online reviews,eWOM,and advertisements exhibited minimal influence within this context or might have adverse influence.This article provides guidelines for electronic products to prioritize social media strategies,invest in high-quality information dissemination,and leverage influencer partnerships to effectively engage consumers and drive sales.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71171048,71371049)the Scientific Innovation Research of College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.KYLX15_0190)the Scientific Research Foundation of Graduate School of Southeast University(No.YBJJ1567)
文摘Based on the prospect theory, a novel linguisticdecision method under risk is proposed. First, the alternativesunder each risk state are rated using linguistic terms, and＇ thelinguistic decision matrix is constructed. Secondly, thelinguistic terms are transformed into triangular fuzzy numbers,so that the linguistic evaluations can be changed into numericalforms. Thirdly, with the aid of the prospect theory, theprobability weight functions and the linguistic value functionscan be computed, based on which the prospective values of thealternatives are obtained. Finally, the alternatives are rankedwith respect to the prospective values combined of probabilityweight and linguistic value functions. Thus, the optimalchoice is made. The decision process takes the psychologicalpreferences of the decision maker into consideration. Thepracticality of the proposed method is illustrated through anapplication on stock selection problems.
文摘In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a process from precise to fuzzy and then from fuzzy to precise,and the model fitted this process well. The model was used in a Warfare Simulation System whose object is to evaluate the effectiveness of the military C3I systems.
文摘The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transport,International Maritime Organization stipulates that the sulfur content of ship emissions will reach 0.5 from 2020.With the approaching of the stipulated implementation date,shipowners need to adopt scientific methods to make decision on low sulfur fuel.In this study,we applied a prospect theory based hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model to obtain the optimal decision of low Sulphur marine fuel.For this purpose,the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is established to collect expert opinions,the maximizing deviation method is adopted to determine criteria weights.According to calculate the Euclidean distance from the reference points,we obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.Lastly,a case study is carried out to illustrate the significance and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The innovation of this study is that it is the first-time adopting prospect theory and hesitate fuzzy sets to multi-criteria decision making for low Sulphur marine fuel,which provides an effective decision model for shipping companies under Low Sulphur regulations,and can also be extended to other industries.
文摘Behavioral finance theory is constantly relaxing or even abandons traditional financial theory rational man assumptions and the efficient market hypothesis, based on the decision-making process to the actual person＇s psychological characteristics as variables studied financial market vision, such as asset pricing and portfolio a series of questions theoretical system. In this paper, from home and abroad on behavioral finance theory, based on the current situation in our country from the company＇s investment policy analysis behavioral finance theory in corporate finance in the application, in order for some of our corporate decision makers to provide a non-decision against the company fully rational and non-efficient market investment strategy.
文摘The aim of this paper is to look at some important educational aspects of complexity decision making m a mummsc^pnnary manner from the perspective of General Systems Theory （GST）. First, the major issues involved in complexity management and decision making are summarized as they are viewed in literature, and a review of GST and Systems Thinking is given. The discussion in the paper is developed within the context of GST in general, but concentrated on decision making in the three trends of GST： Operations Research, Cybernetics, and Managerial Cybernetics. Here, the role of Cybernetics in complexity decision making is particularly emphasized. The discussion is then extended to the latest developments in complexity decision making in Science of Complexity and Soft Systems Thinking. The study also includes a framework which is expected to guide instructors who are planning to offer contemporary courses on decision making. The framework provides some clues for assessing the level of complexity for a given situation and selecting the appropriate methodology for solution development.
文摘Using the dynamic optimization theory, we described a decision-making model for farmer choosing land use when there are several different kinds of uses for land. To obtain an empirical model that could be easily applied, decision rules for farmer with a single static expectation were given.
文摘Bayes'theorem is named after the Reverend Thomas Bayes who proposed the idea in the 18th century[1].It has been adapted by scientists for many different applications.One of the applications is clinical trials,where decisions are guided by clinical expertise as well as by data,especially in early phases.This paper reviews Bayes' theorem,decision theory and their applications in clinical trials.
基金partially supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development(CNPq Grant No.304903/2013-2)
文摘The problem of capacity shortage in some airports needs to be dealt with sustainable solutions including a more efficient use of the existing runway slots at the airports. The Collaborative Decision Making（CDM） is an important approach applied to Air Traffic Management（ATM）to achieve this efficient use of the slots allocation. Using the Matching approach for two-sided markets of Game theory, the Top Trading Cycle CDM（TTC-CDM） algorithm developed in this research is an extension of the CDM approach aggregating the Ground Delay Program（GDP）of the air sector. The paper compared the developed TTC-CDM model to the existing models such as the conventional Compression algorithm in CDM, the Trade Cycle algorithm and the Deferred Acceptance CDM（DA-CDM） model to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. Through a case study, the results show the effective application of TTC-CDM model to slot allocation in ATM and also presents the advantage of considering the preferences of airport managers beside ATC controllers and airlines in the decision processing.
基金supported by NSFC No.61461027,No.61562059Innovation Promotion Education Fund of Ministry of Education 2018A05003Overseas exchange fund for faculty of the Lanzhou University of Technology12。
文摘Named Data Network(NDN) has caused wide concerns in VANET community because NDN uses a content-centric mechanism that naming content rather than the host. However, integrating NDN into VANET(NDN-VANET) also faces several challenges including consumer/provider mobile, broadcast storm problem and so on. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian-based Receiver Forwarding Decision(BRFD) scheme to mitigate the broadcast storm problem incurred by interest packets in NDN-VANET. In the BRFD, vehicles received an interest packet are required to make forwarding decisions based on Bayesian decision theory according to current network conditions obtained by neighbor interaction. However, the receiver-forwarding decision in BRFD can also cause a conflict issue because multiple vehicles forward copies of the same packet at the same time. So a back-off mechanism is introduced in BRFD. Experimental results show that the BRFD algorithm has better performance in several aspects in contrast to probability-based forwarding scheme and "bread crumb" routing.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(2012CB725402)the National High-Tech R&D Program of China(863 Program)(SS2014AA110303)the Science Foundation for Post-doctoral Scientists of Jiangsu Province(1301011A)
文摘A kind of multiple attribute group decision making （MAGDM） problem is discussed from the perspective of statistic decision-making. Firstly, on the basis of the stability theory, a new idea is proposed to solve this kind of problem. Secondly, a con- crete method corresponding to this kind of problem is proposed. The main tool of our research is the technique o~ the jackknife method. The main advantage of the new method is that it can identify and determine the reliability degree of the existed decision making information. Finally, a traffic engineering example is given to show the effectiveness of the new method.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12271146,12161036,61866011,11961025,61976120)the Natural Science Key Foundation of Jiangsu Education Department(21KJA510004)Discovery Grant from Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC)。
文摘Three-way decision(T-WD)theory is about thinking,problem solving,and computing in threes.Behavioral decision making(BDM)focuses on effective,cognitive,and social processes employed by humans for choosing the optimal object,of which prospect theory and regret theory are two widely used tools.The hesitant fuzzy set(HFS)captures a series of uncertainties when it is difficult to specify precise fuzzy membership grades.Guided by the principles of three-way decisions as thinking in threes and integrating these three topics together,this paper reviews and examines advances in three-way behavioral decision making(TW-BDM)with hesitant fuzzy information systems(HFIS)from the perspective of the past,present,and future.First,we provide a brief historical account of the three topics and present basic formulations.Second,we summarize the latest development trends and examine a number of basic issues,such as one-sidedness of reference points and subjective randomness for result values,and then report the results of a comparative analysis of existing methods.Finally,we point out key challenges and future research directions.
基金the Universities Natural Science Key Project of Anhui Province,Grant/Award Number:KJ2020A0637。
文摘It is more and more important to analyse and process complex data for gaining more valuable knowledge and making more accurate decisions.The multigranulation decision theory based on conditional probability and cost loss has the advantage of processing decision-making problems from multi-levels and multi-angles,and the neighbourhood rough set model(NRS)can facilitate the analysis and processing of numerical or mixed type data,and can address the limitation of multigranulation decision-theoretic rough sets(MG-DTRS),which is not easy to cope with complex data.Based on the in-depth study of hybrid-valued decision systems and MG-DTRS models,this study analysed neigh-bourhood MG-DTRS(NMG-DTRS)deeply by fusing MG-DTRS and NRS;a matrix-based approach for approximation sets of NMG-DTRS model was proposed on the basis of the matrix representations of concepts;the positive,boundary and negative domains were constructed from the matrix perspective,and the concept of positive decision recognition rate was introduced.Furthermore,the authors explored the related properties of NMG-DTRS model,and designed and described the corresponding solving algorithms in detail.Finally,some experimental results that were employed not only verified the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed algorithm,but also showed the relationship between the decision recognition rate and the granularity and threshold.
