Northeast China(NEC),a critical agricultural and ecological zone,has experienced intensified hydrological variability under global warming,with cascading impacts on food security and ecosystem resilience.This study ut...Northeast China(NEC),a critical agricultural and ecological zone,has experienced intensified hydrological variability under global warming,with cascading impacts on food security and ecosystem resilience.This study utilized observational data and two new generation reanalysis products(i.e.,the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF(ERA5)and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century(JRA-3Q))to investigate the shift changes in precipitation in NEC around 2000 and associated water vapor transport.The analysis identified a pivotal interdecadal shift in 1998/99,transitioning from moderate increases(17.5 mm/10 yr during 1980-1998)to accelerated but more variable precipitation growth(85.4 mm/10 yr post-1999).While the mean precipitation during the post-shift period decreased,enhanced anticyclonic circulation amplified moisture divergence over continental NEC,redirecting vapor flux toward coastal regions.Crucially,trajectory analysis demonstrated regime-dependent moisture sourcing:midlatitude westerlies dominated during wet extremes(44% of trajectories in 1998),whereas East Asian monsoon flows prevailed in drought years(36% of trajectories in 2007).The post-1998 period exhibited increased reliance on localized recycling(45%of mid-tropospheric trajectories),reflecting weakened monsoonal inflow.These findings highlight NEC’s growing vulnerability to competing moisture pathways and atmospheric blocking-a dual mechanism that explains rising extremes despite declining mean precipitation.By reconciling dataset discrepancies(ERA5 vs.JRA-3Q trends)and elucidating circulation-precipitation linkages,this work provides actionable insights for climate-resilient agriculture in NEC’s water-stressed ecosystems.展开更多
The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risk...The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.展开更多
1 A few decades ago,it was common to see groups of chil-dren riding bikes down quiet American streets.However,this scene is less likely to be seen today.In the 1990s,an average of 20.5 million children aged 7 to 17 ro...1 A few decades ago,it was common to see groups of chil-dren riding bikes down quiet American streets.However,this scene is less likely to be seen today.In the 1990s,an average of 20.5 million children aged 7 to 17 rode bikes six or more times a year,according to the National Sporting Goods Association.By 2023,this number had dropped to about 10.9 million,with less than 5%of them riding frequently.展开更多
Till date,no study on trends in extreme sea surface temperature(SST)for different return periods has been done over the Gulf of Tonkin(GoT).Based on a 84-year(1940–2023)ERA5 Reanalysis data sets,this study for the fi...Till date,no study on trends in extreme sea surface temperature(SST)for different return periods has been done over the Gulf of Tonkin(GoT).Based on a 84-year(1940–2023)ERA5 Reanalysis data sets,this study for the first time,examined the spatio-temporal pattern in extreme SST for different return periods.Findings showed that more significant moderate to fast warming trends(0.1–0.16°C per decade(dec-1))only existed for the 2 year return period.Temporal trends in the 99th percentile SST are insignificant for all return periods.By using the linear regression method,the variability in extreme SST was obtained.Results showed that moderate warming trends dominated a large portion of GoT.Stronger trends,up to 0.018°C yr-1 are noticed near Guangdong,Haikou and southern Sanya in south China.Extreme SST exhibited a slow warming trend of 0.008°C per year(yr-1)all through the study years.The SST is most stable in most waters in the southern GoT and few waters surrounding Dongfang.Temporal warming rates of SST revealed that 1940–1958,1976–1994 and 2003–2012 were years of more coastal upwelling and could affect aquatic lives.The strongest warming rate of 0.07°C dec-1 occurred during 1994–2003.The GoT appeared warmer during spring.Spatial decadal variability of SST revealed that moderate warming trends occurred in few regions in the southern GoT and in larger portion of the central and northern GoT.The rise in SST between 1980 and 2020 in the GoT is not limited to increased anthropogenic activities.展开更多
Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decada...Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decadalscale compound heatwavedrought events remain debated.Here,using reconstructions and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble,we demonstrate that,over the last millennium,decadal droughts on the MP occurred under both warm and cold conditions,differing from recent compound heatwavedrought events.We found that by examining temperature changes during these drought periods,the distinct influences of external forcings and internal variability can be simply and effectively distinguished.Specifically,colddry events were primarily driven by volcanic eruptions that weakened the East Asian summer monsoon and midlatitude westerlies,reducing moisture transport to the MP.In contrast,warmdry events were predominantly induced by internal variability,notably the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the expansion of the Barents Sea ice extent.The recent extreme compound event was probably influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.These findings deepen our understanding of how external forcings and internal variability affect decadal drought events on the MP and highlight that recent compound events are unprecedented in the context of the last millennium.展开更多
The Australian monsoon system plays a pivotal role in the tropical climate system by modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)development through multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions.This study ident...The Australian monsoon system plays a pivotal role in the tropical climate system by modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)development through multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions.This study identifies a significant decadal weakening of the Australian cross-equatorial flow intensity over the past two decades,attributed to the concurrent westward shift of the Australian High(AH)during austral winter.These decadal changes in the Australian monsoon reduce tropical Pacific atmospheric convection and the associated westerly wind anomalies over the centralto-western Pacific,which are crucial precursors for ENSO development.This process diminishes air-sea coupling feedback,including the thermocline feedback and the Ekman feedback,ultimately decreasing the strength of warm ENSO(El Niño)events.Using the Community Earth System Model,we confirm the close linkage between the Australian monsoon and ENSO on the decadal timescale.These findings provide new insights into the coupled relationship between ENSO and monsoon variability,offering a valuable framework for understanding ENSO’s longterm modulation and improving future climate predictions.展开更多
El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).T...El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study explores the potential influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)decadal variability on TA based on a comparative analysis of the relationship between the TIO sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)and ENSO during different periods.Generally,the TIO SSTA strengthened TA before the 1980s,corresponding to a highly positive relationship between the whole TIO SSTA and ENSO.However,the weakening effect was exhibited after the 1980s when the correlation diminished.After the late 1990s,ENSO was only positively correlated with western TIO,with the westerly exhibit of the SSTA center leading to smaller impacts on TA.Moreover,TIO SSTA tends to weaken TA by promoting the transition efficiency of La Niña,while bringing little effect on that of El Niño.Physically,compared to the mid-1970s,TIO SSTA triggered westerly wind anomalies during the autumn and winter of the La Niña development phase in the central equatorial Pacific in the late 1990s,which sped up the decay of La Niña.It then regenerated westerly anomalies in the following winter,facilitating the development of El Niño.This study quantifies the impact of the TIO SSTA on TA in seasonal signals and investigates the decadal variability of such influence,aiming to further understand phase transition asymmetry and offer valuable insights for the prediction of multi-year La Niña.展开更多
In August 2024,the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 78/321 to declare the period from 2025 to 2034 as the“Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences”.This action was championed by the Republic of Fr...In August 2024,the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 78/321 to declare the period from 2025 to 2034 as the“Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences”.This action was championed by the Republic of France and the Republic of Tajikistan,with support from over 30 member states,underscoring the urgent need for an international scientific collaboration to mitigate the far-reaching effects of cryospheric changes on ecosystems,water security,and global climate stability.A dedicated brainstorming session during the March 2025 celebrations in Paris convened over 1,000 policymakers,scientists,and stakeholders to outline the priorities for the Decade of Action.The session aimed to foster cross-border partnerships and strengthen the integration of cryospheric science into global climate adaptation strategies.Joint task force teams developed an integrated governance framework through discussions across five domains—scientific research,socioeconomic impacts,education,policy advocacy,and finance.The Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences represents a critical shift from observation to intervention,mobilizing global stakeholders to translate scientific consensus into concrete measures against cryosphere decline.The initiative responds to urgent calls from UNESCO and international partners for coordinated action on cryosphere preservation.展开更多
Marine heatwaves(MHWs)have become increasingly frequent and persistent in the context of global warming and the related underlying mechanisms are strongly region-dependent.We employed the NOAA(National Oceanic and Atm...Marine heatwaves(MHWs)have become increasingly frequent and persistent in the context of global warming and the related underlying mechanisms are strongly region-dependent.We employed the NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)CRW(Coral Reef Watch)daily mean sea surface temperature dataset spanning from 1985 to 2022 to comprehensively analyze the fundamental attributes and evolving patterns of marine heatwaves in the offshore waters of China.Eight pronounced marine heatwaves from frequently affected sensitive regions were investigated to explore their formation mechanisms.The relationship between the occurrences of marine heatwave and large-scale climate mode in the region was explored.Results show that the western Pacific subtropical high plays an essential role in triggering marine heatwaves in Chinese offshore waters,with an anomalous downward shortwave radiation flux acting to warm the sea surface,which is remotely associated to the large-scale sea surface temperature state.Distinct mechanisms for the MHWs were identified in the northern and southern offshore waters of China.MHWs in high latitudes(such as the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea)mainly occur during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),while those in low latitudes(such as the South China Sea)are more common in about 5-month lags behind the El Niño,for which we purposed a mechanism to describe the main differences in the formation of MHWs in China and discussed the related implications.展开更多
Based on temperature data of meteorological stations from 1971 to 2008 in Tibet,the temporal and spatial variation of maximum andminimum temperature in Tibet was analyzed.The results showed that both maximum temperatu...Based on temperature data of meteorological stations from 1971 to 2008 in Tibet,the temporal and spatial variation of maximum andminimum temperature in Tibet was analyzed.The results showed that both maximum temperature andminimum temperature increased distinctly,the warming amplitude of winter was the highest among the four seasons,and next came spring.The increment ofminimum temperature was visibly over that of maximum temperature,particularlyminimum temperature in winter with significant increment.For spatial variation,maximum temperature in most stations increased except particular stations,while theminimum temperature in all stations rose.In addition,the space variation law ofminimum temperature,being more obvious thanminimum temperature,increased from southeast to northwest with different spatial changes in various seasons.From decadal variation,both maximum andminimum temperature appeared increase from 1970s to the first eight years in the 21st century,and the rise ofminimum temperature was significant greater than maximum temperature.The increase of maximum andminimum temperature was the highest from 2001 to 2008,whereas the lowest in 1970s.展开更多
China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ...China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.展开更多
By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are stud...By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are studied.The results suggest that the strong or weak Afro-Asian monsoon has pretty good corresponding relation with summer precipitation in Afro-Asian area.When summer monsoon weakens year after year,precipitation also decreases every year.展开更多
In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and ...In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and SC winter rainfall （ENSO-SC rainfall） are highly correlated and intimately coupled through an anomalous high pressure over the northwestern Pacific. In mature phase, El Nifio （La Nina） events can cause more （less） rainfall over SC in winter. Due to the persistence and spring barrier of ENSO, SC winter rainfall has potential predictability of about half a year ahead with ENSO as a predictor.展开更多
Wavelet analyses are applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and North Pacific index for the period 1900-2000, which identifies two dominant interdecadal components, the bidecadal (15-25-yr) and pentadecadal ...Wavelet analyses are applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and North Pacific index for the period 1900-2000, which identifies two dominant interdecadal components, the bidecadal (15-25-yr) and pentadecadal (50 70-yr) modes. Joint propagating patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the North Pacific for the two modes are revealed by using the techniques of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) and linear regression analysis with the global sea surface temperature (GISST) data and the northern hemispheric SLP data for the common period 1903 1998. Significant differences in spatio-temporal structures are found between the two modes. For the bidecadal mode, SST anomalies originating from the Gulf of Alaska appear to slowly spread southwestward, inducing a reversal of early SST anomalies in the central North Pacific. Due to further westward spreading, the SST variation of the central North Pacific leads that of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region by approximately 4 to 5 years. Concomitantly, SLP anomalies spread over most parts of the North Pacific during the mature phase and then change into an NPO(North Pacific Oscillation)-like pattern during the transition phase. For the pentadecadal mode, SST anomalies develop in the southeast tropical Pacific and propagate along the North American coast to the mid-latitudes; meanwhile, SST anomalies with the same polarity in the western tropical Pacific expand northward to Kuroshio and its extension region; both merge into the central North Pacific reversing the sign of early SST anomalies there. Accompanying SLP anomalies are characterized by an NPO-like pattern during the mature phase while they are dominant over the North Pacific during the transitional phase. The bidecadal and pentadecadal modes have different propagating patterns, suggesting that the two interdecadal modes may arise from different physical mechanisms.展开更多
This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-ext...This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-extending,resulting in anomalous high pressure and consequent extreme heat over CSC. The abnormal WNPSH was favored by the warming of the western tropical Pacific(WTP), which was unrelated to ENSO and manifested its own individual effect.The WTP warming enhanced the convection in-situ and led to anomalous high pressure over CSC via a local meridional circulation. The influence of the WTP was confirmed by CAM4 model experiments. A comparison between the 2017 midsummer and 2010 midsummer(with a stronger WNPSH but weaker extreme heat) indicated that the influence of the WNPSH on extreme heat can be modulated by the associated precipitation in the northwestern flank.The role of the WTP was verified by regression analyses on the interannual variation of the WTP sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA). On the other hand, the WTP has undergone prominent warming during the past few decades, resulting from decadal to long-term changes and favoring extreme warm conditions. Through a mechanism similar to the interannual variation, the decadal to long-term changes have reinforced the influence of WTP warming on the temperature over CSC,contributing to the more frequent hot midsummers recently. It is estimated that more than 50% of the temperature anomaly over CSC in the 2017 midsummer was due to the WTP warming, and 40% was related to the decadal to long-term changes of the WTP SSTA.展开更多
A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive c...A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and 70°-30°W, whether in winter or summer. From 1873, the NAOI exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability. Its interannual variability of the twelve calendar months is obviously phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. Moreover, the annual NAOI exhibits a clearer decadal variability in amplitude than the winter NAOI. An upward trend is found in the annual NAOI between the 1870s and 1910s, while the other winter NAO indices fail to show this tendency. The annual NAOI exhibits a strongly positive epoch of 50 years between 1896 and 1950. After 1950, the variability of the annual NAOI is very similar to that of the winter NAO indices.展开更多
The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The resu...The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42275185 and 42205032]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[grant number B250201118]。
文摘Northeast China(NEC),a critical agricultural and ecological zone,has experienced intensified hydrological variability under global warming,with cascading impacts on food security and ecosystem resilience.This study utilized observational data and two new generation reanalysis products(i.e.,the fifth major global reanalysis produced by ECMWF(ERA5)and the Japanese Reanalysis for Three Quarters of a Century(JRA-3Q))to investigate the shift changes in precipitation in NEC around 2000 and associated water vapor transport.The analysis identified a pivotal interdecadal shift in 1998/99,transitioning from moderate increases(17.5 mm/10 yr during 1980-1998)to accelerated but more variable precipitation growth(85.4 mm/10 yr post-1999).While the mean precipitation during the post-shift period decreased,enhanced anticyclonic circulation amplified moisture divergence over continental NEC,redirecting vapor flux toward coastal regions.Crucially,trajectory analysis demonstrated regime-dependent moisture sourcing:midlatitude westerlies dominated during wet extremes(44% of trajectories in 1998),whereas East Asian monsoon flows prevailed in drought years(36% of trajectories in 2007).The post-1998 period exhibited increased reliance on localized recycling(45%of mid-tropospheric trajectories),reflecting weakened monsoonal inflow.These findings highlight NEC’s growing vulnerability to competing moisture pathways and atmospheric blocking-a dual mechanism that explains rising extremes despite declining mean precipitation.By reconciling dataset discrepancies(ERA5 vs.JRA-3Q trends)and elucidating circulation-precipitation linkages,this work provides actionable insights for climate-resilient agriculture in NEC’s water-stressed ecosystems.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608904)the International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.060GJHZ2023079GC and 134111KYSB20160031)+1 种基金supported by the Office of Science,U.S.Department of Energy(DOE)Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis program area through the Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling(WACCEM)scientific focus areaoperated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830。
文摘The global monsoon system,encompassing the Asian-Australian,African,and American monsoons,sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture.Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks,including floods and droughts.Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms.Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift:increased rainfall pre-1950s,followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s,driven by both internal variability(e.g.,Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation)and external forcings(greenhouse gases,aerosols),while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions.Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification,though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist.Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes,where thermodynamic effects(warming-induced moisture rise)uniformly boost heavy rainfall,while dynamical shifts(circulation changes)create spatial heterogeneity.Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification(SRM)further complicate predictions:tropical eruptions suppress monsoons,whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows,highlighting unresolved feedbacks.The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons.Critical challenges remain.Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution.The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings,along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming,demands deeper mechanistic insights.Additionally,SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation.Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks,refined climate models,and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers,ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.
文摘1 A few decades ago,it was common to see groups of chil-dren riding bikes down quiet American streets.However,this scene is less likely to be seen today.In the 1990s,an average of 20.5 million children aged 7 to 17 rode bikes six or more times a year,according to the National Sporting Goods Association.By 2023,this number had dropped to about 10.9 million,with less than 5%of them riding frequently.
文摘Till date,no study on trends in extreme sea surface temperature(SST)for different return periods has been done over the Gulf of Tonkin(GoT).Based on a 84-year(1940–2023)ERA5 Reanalysis data sets,this study for the first time,examined the spatio-temporal pattern in extreme SST for different return periods.Findings showed that more significant moderate to fast warming trends(0.1–0.16°C per decade(dec-1))only existed for the 2 year return period.Temporal trends in the 99th percentile SST are insignificant for all return periods.By using the linear regression method,the variability in extreme SST was obtained.Results showed that moderate warming trends dominated a large portion of GoT.Stronger trends,up to 0.018°C yr-1 are noticed near Guangdong,Haikou and southern Sanya in south China.Extreme SST exhibited a slow warming trend of 0.008°C per year(yr-1)all through the study years.The SST is most stable in most waters in the southern GoT and few waters surrounding Dongfang.Temporal warming rates of SST revealed that 1940–1958,1976–1994 and 2003–2012 were years of more coastal upwelling and could affect aquatic lives.The strongest warming rate of 0.07°C dec-1 occurred during 1994–2003.The GoT appeared warmer during spring.Spatial decadal variability of SST revealed that moderate warming trends occurred in few regions in the southern GoT and in larger portion of the central and northern GoT.The rise in SST between 1980 and 2020 in the GoT is not limited to increased anthropogenic activities.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42130604)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0804704)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42105044)Swedish STINT(Grant No.CH2019-8377)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(Grant No.164320H116)。
文摘Since the mid-20th century,the Mongolian Plateau(MP)has experienced decadal droughts coupled with extreme heatwaves,severely affecting regional ecology and social development.However,the mechanisms behind these decadalscale compound heatwavedrought events remain debated.Here,using reconstructions and simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble,we demonstrate that,over the last millennium,decadal droughts on the MP occurred under both warm and cold conditions,differing from recent compound heatwavedrought events.We found that by examining temperature changes during these drought periods,the distinct influences of external forcings and internal variability can be simply and effectively distinguished.Specifically,colddry events were primarily driven by volcanic eruptions that weakened the East Asian summer monsoon and midlatitude westerlies,reducing moisture transport to the MP.In contrast,warmdry events were predominantly induced by internal variability,notably the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the expansion of the Barents Sea ice extent.The recent extreme compound event was probably influenced by the combined effects of anthropogenic forcings and internal variability.These findings deepen our understanding of how external forcings and internal variability affect decadal drought events on the MP and highlight that recent compound events are unprecedented in the context of the last millennium.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42105052 and 42376016the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)under contract No.SML2024SP012.
文摘The Australian monsoon system plays a pivotal role in the tropical climate system by modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)development through multi-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions.This study identifies a significant decadal weakening of the Australian cross-equatorial flow intensity over the past two decades,attributed to the concurrent westward shift of the Australian High(AH)during austral winter.These decadal changes in the Australian monsoon reduce tropical Pacific atmospheric convection and the associated westerly wind anomalies over the centralto-western Pacific,which are crucial precursors for ENSO development.This process diminishes air-sea coupling feedback,including the thermocline feedback and the Ekman feedback,ultimately decreasing the strength of warm ENSO(El Niño)events.Using the Community Earth System Model,we confirm the close linkage between the Australian monsoon and ENSO on the decadal timescale.These findings provide new insights into the coupled relationship between ENSO and monsoon variability,offering a valuable framework for understanding ENSO’s longterm modulation and improving future climate predictions.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42288101,42192564)Project of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China(2020YFA0608802)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(2020B0301030004)。
文摘El Niño is frequently followed by La Niña,while La Niña tends to sustain into the next year or even longer,exhibiting a notable phase transition asymmetry(TA)of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study explores the potential influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO)decadal variability on TA based on a comparative analysis of the relationship between the TIO sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA)and ENSO during different periods.Generally,the TIO SSTA strengthened TA before the 1980s,corresponding to a highly positive relationship between the whole TIO SSTA and ENSO.However,the weakening effect was exhibited after the 1980s when the correlation diminished.After the late 1990s,ENSO was only positively correlated with western TIO,with the westerly exhibit of the SSTA center leading to smaller impacts on TA.Moreover,TIO SSTA tends to weaken TA by promoting the transition efficiency of La Niña,while bringing little effect on that of El Niño.Physically,compared to the mid-1970s,TIO SSTA triggered westerly wind anomalies during the autumn and winter of the La Niña development phase in the central equatorial Pacific in the late 1990s,which sped up the decay of La Niña.It then regenerated westerly anomalies in the following winter,facilitating the development of El Niño.This study quantifies the impact of the TIO SSTA on TA in seasonal signals and investigates the decadal variability of such influence,aiming to further understand phase transition asymmetry and offer valuable insights for the prediction of multi-year La Niña.
基金support from USA NSF Grant OPP2213875NASA Grant 80NSSC22K1707.
文摘In August 2024,the United Nations General Assembly adopted resolution 78/321 to declare the period from 2025 to 2034 as the“Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences”.This action was championed by the Republic of France and the Republic of Tajikistan,with support from over 30 member states,underscoring the urgent need for an international scientific collaboration to mitigate the far-reaching effects of cryospheric changes on ecosystems,water security,and global climate stability.A dedicated brainstorming session during the March 2025 celebrations in Paris convened over 1,000 policymakers,scientists,and stakeholders to outline the priorities for the Decade of Action.The session aimed to foster cross-border partnerships and strengthen the integration of cryospheric science into global climate adaptation strategies.Joint task force teams developed an integrated governance framework through discussions across five domains—scientific research,socioeconomic impacts,education,policy advocacy,and finance.The Decade of Action for Cryospheric Sciences represents a critical shift from observation to intervention,mobilizing global stakeholders to translate scientific consensus into concrete measures against cryosphere decline.The initiative responds to urgent calls from UNESCO and international partners for coordinated action on cryosphere preservation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41905089)the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ202202404)+1 种基金the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST,Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(No.JSSCTD202346)the Undergraduates Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program of Jiangsu Province(No.202310300087Y)。
文摘Marine heatwaves(MHWs)have become increasingly frequent and persistent in the context of global warming and the related underlying mechanisms are strongly region-dependent.We employed the NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)CRW(Coral Reef Watch)daily mean sea surface temperature dataset spanning from 1985 to 2022 to comprehensively analyze the fundamental attributes and evolving patterns of marine heatwaves in the offshore waters of China.Eight pronounced marine heatwaves from frequently affected sensitive regions were investigated to explore their formation mechanisms.The relationship between the occurrences of marine heatwave and large-scale climate mode in the region was explored.Results show that the western Pacific subtropical high plays an essential role in triggering marine heatwaves in Chinese offshore waters,with an anomalous downward shortwave radiation flux acting to warm the sea surface,which is remotely associated to the large-scale sea surface temperature state.Distinct mechanisms for the MHWs were identified in the northern and southern offshore waters of China.MHWs in high latitudes(such as the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea)mainly occur during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),while those in low latitudes(such as the South China Sea)are more common in about 5-month lags behind the El Niño,for which we purposed a mechanism to describe the main differences in the formation of MHWs in China and discussed the related implications.
文摘Based on temperature data of meteorological stations from 1971 to 2008 in Tibet,the temporal and spatial variation of maximum andminimum temperature in Tibet was analyzed.The results showed that both maximum temperature andminimum temperature increased distinctly,the warming amplitude of winter was the highest among the four seasons,and next came spring.The increment ofminimum temperature was visibly over that of maximum temperature,particularlyminimum temperature in winter with significant increment.For spatial variation,maximum temperature in most stations increased except particular stations,while theminimum temperature in all stations rose.In addition,the space variation law ofminimum temperature,being more obvious thanminimum temperature,increased from southeast to northwest with different spatial changes in various seasons.From decadal variation,both maximum andminimum temperature appeared increase from 1970s to the first eight years in the 21st century,and the rise ofminimum temperature was significant greater than maximum temperature.The increase of maximum andminimum temperature was the highest from 2001 to 2008,whereas the lowest in 1970s.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.91744311 and91544219)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0600203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41405138)
文摘China has been experiencing widespread air pollution due to rapid industrialization and urbanization in recent decades.The two major concerns of ambient air quality in China are particulate matter(PM)and tropospheric ozone(O3).With the implementation of air pollution prevention and control actions in the last five years,the PM pollution in China has been substantially reduced.In contrast,under the conditions of the urban air pollution complex,the elevated O3 levels in city clusters of eastern China,especially in warm seasons,have drawn increasing attention.Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors not only contribute to regional air quality,but also alter climate.Climate change in turn can change chemical processes,long-range transport,and local meteorology that influence air pollution.Compared to PM,less is known about O3 pollution and its climate effects over China.Here,we present a review of the main findings from the literature over the period 2011-18 with regard to the characteristics of O3 concentrations in China and the mechanisms that drive its interannual to decadal variations,aiming to identify robust conclusions that may guide decision-making for emissions control and to highlight critical knowledge gaps.We also review regional and global modeling studies that have investigated the impacts of tropospheric O3 on climate,as well as the projections of future tropospheric O3 owing to climate and/or emission changes.
文摘By dint of grid information from 1948 to 2007,the summer monsoon in Afro-Asian area and the precipitation in corresponding atmosphere circulation situation during the strong and weak Afro-Asian monsoon period are studied.The results suggest that the strong or weak Afro-Asian monsoon has pretty good corresponding relation with summer precipitation in Afro-Asian area.When summer monsoon weakens year after year,precipitation also decreases every year.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC) (Grant Nos.40906003 and 40830106)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB 955603)
文摘In this study, the relationship between El Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） and winter rainfall over Southeast China （SC） is demonstrated based on instrumental and reanalysis data. The results show that ENSO and SC winter rainfall （ENSO-SC rainfall） are highly correlated and intimately coupled through an anomalous high pressure over the northwestern Pacific. In mature phase, El Nifio （La Nina） events can cause more （less） rainfall over SC in winter. Due to the persistence and spring barrier of ENSO, SC winter rainfall has potential predictability of about half a year ahead with ENSO as a predictor.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the grants No.40233028 and No.40075017.
文摘Wavelet analyses are applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and North Pacific index for the period 1900-2000, which identifies two dominant interdecadal components, the bidecadal (15-25-yr) and pentadecadal (50 70-yr) modes. Joint propagating patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the North Pacific for the two modes are revealed by using the techniques of multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) and linear regression analysis with the global sea surface temperature (GISST) data and the northern hemispheric SLP data for the common period 1903 1998. Significant differences in spatio-temporal structures are found between the two modes. For the bidecadal mode, SST anomalies originating from the Gulf of Alaska appear to slowly spread southwestward, inducing a reversal of early SST anomalies in the central North Pacific. Due to further westward spreading, the SST variation of the central North Pacific leads that of the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region by approximately 4 to 5 years. Concomitantly, SLP anomalies spread over most parts of the North Pacific during the mature phase and then change into an NPO(North Pacific Oscillation)-like pattern during the transition phase. For the pentadecadal mode, SST anomalies develop in the southeast tropical Pacific and propagate along the North American coast to the mid-latitudes; meanwhile, SST anomalies with the same polarity in the western tropical Pacific expand northward to Kuroshio and its extension region; both merge into the central North Pacific reversing the sign of early SST anomalies there. Accompanying SLP anomalies are characterized by an NPO-like pattern during the mature phase while they are dominant over the North Pacific during the transitional phase. The bidecadal and pentadecadal modes have different propagating patterns, suggesting that the two interdecadal modes may arise from different physical mechanisms.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0600601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41605027, 41721004, 41530530 and 41731173)+1 种基金the Leading Talents of Guangdong Province Program, the Pioneer Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesthe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘This study investigates why an extreme hot midsummer occurred in Central and South China(CSC) during 2017. It is shown that the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH) was abnormally intensified and westward-extending,resulting in anomalous high pressure and consequent extreme heat over CSC. The abnormal WNPSH was favored by the warming of the western tropical Pacific(WTP), which was unrelated to ENSO and manifested its own individual effect.The WTP warming enhanced the convection in-situ and led to anomalous high pressure over CSC via a local meridional circulation. The influence of the WTP was confirmed by CAM4 model experiments. A comparison between the 2017 midsummer and 2010 midsummer(with a stronger WNPSH but weaker extreme heat) indicated that the influence of the WNPSH on extreme heat can be modulated by the associated precipitation in the northwestern flank.The role of the WTP was verified by regression analyses on the interannual variation of the WTP sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA). On the other hand, the WTP has undergone prominent warming during the past few decades, resulting from decadal to long-term changes and favoring extreme warm conditions. Through a mechanism similar to the interannual variation, the decadal to long-term changes have reinforced the influence of WTP warming on the temperature over CSC,contributing to the more frequent hot midsummers recently. It is estimated that more than 50% of the temperature anomaly over CSC in the 2017 midsummer was due to the WTP warming, and 40% was related to the decadal to long-term changes of the WTP SSTA.
基金supported jointly by the NOAA Arctic Research,CAS Project ZKCX2-SW-210the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.40275025)
文摘A new North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, the NAOI, is defined as the differences of normalized sea level pressures regionally zonal-averaged over a broad range of longitudes 80°W-30°E. A comprehensive comparison of six NAO indices indicates that the new NAOI provides a more faithful representation of the spatial-temporal variability associated with the NAO on all timescales. A very high signal-to-noise ratio for the NAOI exists for all seasons, and the life cycle represented by the NAOI describes well the seasonal migration for action centers of the NAO. The NAOI captures a larger fraction of the variance of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic sector (20°-90°N, 80°W-30°E), on average 10% more than any other NAO index. There are quite different relationships between the NAOI and surface air temperature during winter and summer. A novel feature, however, is that the NAOI is significantly negative correlated with surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean between 10°-25°N and 70°-30°W, whether in winter or summer. From 1873, the NAOI exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability. Its interannual variability of the twelve calendar months is obviously phase-locked with the seasonal cycle. Moreover, the annual NAOI exhibits a clearer decadal variability in amplitude than the winter NAOI. An upward trend is found in the annual NAOI between the 1870s and 1910s, while the other winter NAO indices fail to show this tendency. The annual NAOI exhibits a strongly positive epoch of 50 years between 1896 and 1950. After 1950, the variability of the annual NAOI is very similar to that of the winter NAO indices.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)Creative Group Project(Grant No.41221063)Major Research Project(Grant No.2013CB956200)
文摘The response of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） to global warming according to the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model （FOAM） and global warming comparison experiments of 11 IPCC AR4 models is investigated. The results show that North Pacific ocean decadal variability, its dominant mode （i.e., PDO）, and atmospheric decadal variability, have become weaker under global warming, but with PDO shifting to a higher frequency. The SST decadal variability reduction maximum is shown to be in the subpolar North Pacific Ocean and western North Pacific （PDO center）. The atmospheric decadal variability reduction maximum is over the PDO center. It was also found that oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves play a key role in PDO dynamics, especially those in the subpolar ocean. As the frequency of ocean buoyancy increases under a warmer climate, oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves become faster, and the increase in their speed ratio in the high latitudes is much larger than in the low latitudes. The faster baroclinic Rossby waves can cause the PDO to shift to a higher frequency, and North Pacific decadal variability and PDO to become weaker.
