Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations ...Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations are derived analogous to generalized estimating equation method.Under certain regular conditions,the resultant estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically normal.Furthermore,we also establish the weak convergence of estimators for the baseline cumulative hazard functions.展开更多
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of ge...Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.展开更多
This paper selects some representative regions to obtain their G-R relation curves according to their seismicity characteristics,by using ML≥2.0 microseismicity data(1970~1993)in North China.The annual occurrence rat...This paper selects some representative regions to obtain their G-R relation curves according to their seismicity characteristics,by using ML≥2.0 microseismicity data(1970~1993)in North China.The annual occurrence rate of events of each magnitude can be inferred from the G-R relation.At the same tune,the actual annual occurrence rate of earthquakes of higher magnitudes can be calculated from historical earthquakes(1300-1993)recorded in the same region.It seems that both results are almost the same.Therefore,the rate of events of higher magnitudes can be obtained by using microseismicity data when the proper region is selected.However,two points should be noticed:(1)The method can only give the annual occurrence rate in a seismicity system and estimate the whole situation of the system.(2)When there is a very large earthquake in and near the period in which the microseismicity data are applied,the actual occurrence rate of the system,including this larger earthquake,cannot be obtained by this method.展开更多
The </span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software <span>reliability quantitatively....The </span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software <span>reliability quantitatively. A Hazard-Rate Model is </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">well</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">-</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">known one as the</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> typical software reliability model. We propose Hazard-Rate Models Consider<span>ing Fault Severity Levels (CFSL) for Open Source Software (OSS). The purpose of </span><span>this research is to </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">make </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the Hazard-Rate Model considering CFSL adapt to</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">baseline hazard function and 2 kinds of faults data in Bug Tracking System <span>(BTS)</span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">,</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> <i>i.e.</i>, we use the covariate vectors in Cox proportional Hazard-Rate</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> Model. Also, <span>we show the numerical examples by evaluating the performance of our pro</span><span>posed model. As the result, we compare the performance of our model with the</span> Hazard-Rate Model CFSL.展开更多
In this paper, based on random left truncated and right censored data, the authors derive strong representations of the cumulative hazard function estimator and the product-limit estimator of the survival function. wh...In this paper, based on random left truncated and right censored data, the authors derive strong representations of the cumulative hazard function estimator and the product-limit estimator of the survival function. which are valid up to a given order statistic of the observations. A precise bound for the errors is obtained which only depends on the index of the last order statistic to be included.展开更多
An important task in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of intensity and frequency of rare strong seismic shaking, in particular, the long-term peak ground velocity values(PGVs). A recently proposed method is...An important task in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of intensity and frequency of rare strong seismic shaking, in particular, the long-term peak ground velocity values(PGVs). A recently proposed method is suitable for simply estimating PGVs based on the examination of the magnitude of displacements of rock blocks. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by results of studies on the source zones of two large earthquakes and a vicinity of one strong explosion. In this study, the method is applied to the examination of archeoseismological data from the ancient Rehovot-ba-Negev city and other ancient cities from the Negev desert(in Southern Israel) where numerous evidences of presumable seismic damage were found earlier. The cities and also a sophisticated irrigation system within the region, which existed in the Negev desert, were abandoned however in the middle of the seventh century. The abandonment could be caused by a combined effect, from not only the cessation of the state support from Byzantium as a result of the Arab conquest but also the severe destruction from the strong earthquake that hit the area at that time. The intensities of the seismic events that hit the cities were estimated earlier, which are within the range of 8 e9. Our estimates indicate that the PGV values are about 1.5 m/s. Hence, the magnitude of the causative earthquake could be in the range M z 6.5 e7.5, and the location of the epicenter might be at a distance of a few dozens of kilometers from the ancient Rehovot-ba-Negev city, while the other variants associated with the earthquake seem to be less probable.展开更多
Hazard maps are usually prepared for each disaster, including seismic hazard maps, flood hazard maps, and landslide hazard maps. However, when the general public attempts to check their own disaster risk, most are lik...Hazard maps are usually prepared for each disaster, including seismic hazard maps, flood hazard maps, and landslide hazard maps. However, when the general public attempts to check their own disaster risk, most are likely not aware of the specific types of disaster. So, first of all, we need to know what kind<span style="font-family:;" "="">s</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> of hazards are important. However, the information that integrates multiple hazards is not well maintained, and there are few such studies. On the other hand, in Japan, a lot of hazard information is being released on the Internet. So, we summarized and assessed hazard data that can be accessed online regarding shelters (where evacuees live during disasters) and their catchments (areas assigned to each shelter) in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture. Based on the results, we investigated whether a grouping by cluster analysis would allow for multi-hazard assessment. We used four natural disasters (seismic, flood, tsunami, sediment disaster) and six parameters of other population and senior population. However, since the characteristics of the population and the senior population were almost the same, only population data was used in the final examination. From the cluster analysis, it was found that it is appropriate to group the designated evacuation centers in Yokohama City into six groups. In addition, each of the six groups was found <span>to have explainable characteristics, confirming the effectiveness of multi-hazard</span> creation using cluster analysis. For example, we divided, all hazards are low, both flood and Seismic hazards are high, sediment hazards are high, etc. In many Japanese cities, disaster prevention measures have been constructed in consideration of ground hazards, mainly for earthquake disasters. In this paper, we confirmed the consistency between the evaluation results of the multi-hazard evaluated here and the existing ground hazard map and examined the usefulness of the designated evacuation center. Finally, the validity was confirmed by comparing this result with the ground hazard based on the actual measurement by the past research. In places where the seismic hazard is large, the two are consistent with the fact that the easiness of shaking by actual measurement is also large.</span>展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11171263)
文摘Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations are derived analogous to generalized estimating equation method.Under certain regular conditions,the resultant estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically normal.Furthermore,we also establish the weak convergence of estimators for the baseline cumulative hazard functions.
文摘Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.
基金This project was sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the contract of No. 49574207
文摘This paper selects some representative regions to obtain their G-R relation curves according to their seismicity characteristics,by using ML≥2.0 microseismicity data(1970~1993)in North China.The annual occurrence rate of events of each magnitude can be inferred from the G-R relation.At the same tune,the actual annual occurrence rate of earthquakes of higher magnitudes can be calculated from historical earthquakes(1300-1993)recorded in the same region.It seems that both results are almost the same.Therefore,the rate of events of higher magnitudes can be obtained by using microseismicity data when the proper region is selected.However,two points should be noticed:(1)The method can only give the annual occurrence rate in a seismicity system and estimate the whole situation of the system.(2)When there is a very large earthquake in and near the period in which the microseismicity data are applied,the actual occurrence rate of the system,including this larger earthquake,cannot be obtained by this method.
文摘The </span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software <span>reliability quantitatively. A Hazard-Rate Model is </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">well</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">-</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">known one as the</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> typical software reliability model. We propose Hazard-Rate Models Consider<span>ing Fault Severity Levels (CFSL) for Open Source Software (OSS). The purpose of </span><span>this research is to </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">make </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the Hazard-Rate Model considering CFSL adapt to</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">baseline hazard function and 2 kinds of faults data in Bug Tracking System <span>(BTS)</span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">,</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> <i>i.e.</i>, we use the covariate vectors in Cox proportional Hazard-Rate</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> Model. Also, <span>we show the numerical examples by evaluating the performance of our pro</span><span>posed model. As the result, we compare the performance of our model with the</span> Hazard-Rate Model CFSL.
文摘In this paper, based on random left truncated and right censored data, the authors derive strong representations of the cumulative hazard function estimator and the product-limit estimator of the survival function. which are valid up to a given order statistic of the observations. A precise bound for the errors is obtained which only depends on the index of the last order statistic to be included.
基金partial financial support of ISTC grant No. G-2153
文摘An important task in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of intensity and frequency of rare strong seismic shaking, in particular, the long-term peak ground velocity values(PGVs). A recently proposed method is suitable for simply estimating PGVs based on the examination of the magnitude of displacements of rock blocks. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by results of studies on the source zones of two large earthquakes and a vicinity of one strong explosion. In this study, the method is applied to the examination of archeoseismological data from the ancient Rehovot-ba-Negev city and other ancient cities from the Negev desert(in Southern Israel) where numerous evidences of presumable seismic damage were found earlier. The cities and also a sophisticated irrigation system within the region, which existed in the Negev desert, were abandoned however in the middle of the seventh century. The abandonment could be caused by a combined effect, from not only the cessation of the state support from Byzantium as a result of the Arab conquest but also the severe destruction from the strong earthquake that hit the area at that time. The intensities of the seismic events that hit the cities were estimated earlier, which are within the range of 8 e9. Our estimates indicate that the PGV values are about 1.5 m/s. Hence, the magnitude of the causative earthquake could be in the range M z 6.5 e7.5, and the location of the epicenter might be at a distance of a few dozens of kilometers from the ancient Rehovot-ba-Negev city, while the other variants associated with the earthquake seem to be less probable.
文摘Hazard maps are usually prepared for each disaster, including seismic hazard maps, flood hazard maps, and landslide hazard maps. However, when the general public attempts to check their own disaster risk, most are likely not aware of the specific types of disaster. So, first of all, we need to know what kind<span style="font-family:;" "="">s</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> of hazards are important. However, the information that integrates multiple hazards is not well maintained, and there are few such studies. On the other hand, in Japan, a lot of hazard information is being released on the Internet. So, we summarized and assessed hazard data that can be accessed online regarding shelters (where evacuees live during disasters) and their catchments (areas assigned to each shelter) in Yokohama City, Kanagawa Prefecture. Based on the results, we investigated whether a grouping by cluster analysis would allow for multi-hazard assessment. We used four natural disasters (seismic, flood, tsunami, sediment disaster) and six parameters of other population and senior population. However, since the characteristics of the population and the senior population were almost the same, only population data was used in the final examination. From the cluster analysis, it was found that it is appropriate to group the designated evacuation centers in Yokohama City into six groups. In addition, each of the six groups was found <span>to have explainable characteristics, confirming the effectiveness of multi-hazard</span> creation using cluster analysis. For example, we divided, all hazards are low, both flood and Seismic hazards are high, sediment hazards are high, etc. In many Japanese cities, disaster prevention measures have been constructed in consideration of ground hazards, mainly for earthquake disasters. In this paper, we confirmed the consistency between the evaluation results of the multi-hazard evaluated here and the existing ground hazard map and examined the usefulness of the designated evacuation center. Finally, the validity was confirmed by comparing this result with the ground hazard based on the actual measurement by the past research. In places where the seismic hazard is large, the two are consistent with the fact that the easiness of shaking by actual measurement is also large.</span>
