To solve the arrearage problem that puzzled most of the mobile corporations, we propose an approach to forecast and evaluate the credits for mobile clients, devising a method that is of the coalescence of genetic algo...To solve the arrearage problem that puzzled most of the mobile corporations, we propose an approach to forecast and evaluate the credits for mobile clients, devising a method that is of the coalescence of genetic algorithm and multidimensional distinguishing model. In the end of this paper, a result of a testing application in Zhuhai Branch, GMCC was provided. The precision of the forecasting and evaluation of the client’s credit is near 90%. This study is very significant to the mobile communication corporation at all levels. The popularization of the techniques and the result would produce great benefits of both society and economy.展开更多
Credit card fraud is a wide-ranging issue for financial institutions, involving theft and fraud committed using a payment card. In this paper, we explore the application of linear and nonlinear statistical modeling an...Credit card fraud is a wide-ranging issue for financial institutions, involving theft and fraud committed using a payment card. In this paper, we explore the application of linear and nonlinear statistical modeling and machine learning models on real credit card transaction data. The models built are supervised fraud models that attempt to identify which transactions are most likely fraudulent. We discuss the processes of data exploration, data cleaning, variable creation, feature selection, model algorithms, and results. Five different supervised models are explored and compared including logistic regression, neural networks, random forest, boosted tree and support vector machines. The boosted tree model shows the best fraud detection result (FDR = 49.83%) for this particular data set. The resulting model can be utilized in a credit card fraud detection system. A similar model development process can be performed in related business domains such as insurance and telecommunications, to avoid or detect fraudulent activity.展开更多
There are many factors influencing personal credit. We introduce Lasso technique to personal credit evaluation, and establish Lasso-logistic, Lasso-SVM and Group lasso-logistic models respectively. Variable selection ...There are many factors influencing personal credit. We introduce Lasso technique to personal credit evaluation, and establish Lasso-logistic, Lasso-SVM and Group lasso-logistic models respectively. Variable selection and parameter estimation are also conducted simultaneously. Based on the personal credit data set from a certain lending platform, it can be concluded through experiments that compared with the full-variable Logistic model and the stepwise Logistic model, the variable selection ability of Group lasso-logistic model was the strongest, followed by Lasso-logistic and Lasso-SVM respectively. All three models based on Lasso variable selection have better filtering capability than stepwise selection. In the meantime, the Group lasso-logistic model can eliminate or retain relevant virtual variables as a group to facilitate model interpretation. In terms of prediction accuracy, Lasso-SVM had the highest prediction accuracy for default users in the training set, while in the test set, Group lasso-logistic had the best classification accuracy for default users. Whether in the training set or in the test set, the Lasso-logistic model has the best classification accuracy for non-default users. The model based on Lasso variable selection can also better screen out the key factors influencing personal credit risk.展开更多
基金Guangdong Mobile Communication Company Limited Key Item(2001 and 2002)
文摘To solve the arrearage problem that puzzled most of the mobile corporations, we propose an approach to forecast and evaluate the credits for mobile clients, devising a method that is of the coalescence of genetic algorithm and multidimensional distinguishing model. In the end of this paper, a result of a testing application in Zhuhai Branch, GMCC was provided. The precision of the forecasting and evaluation of the client’s credit is near 90%. This study is very significant to the mobile communication corporation at all levels. The popularization of the techniques and the result would produce great benefits of both society and economy.
文摘Credit card fraud is a wide-ranging issue for financial institutions, involving theft and fraud committed using a payment card. In this paper, we explore the application of linear and nonlinear statistical modeling and machine learning models on real credit card transaction data. The models built are supervised fraud models that attempt to identify which transactions are most likely fraudulent. We discuss the processes of data exploration, data cleaning, variable creation, feature selection, model algorithms, and results. Five different supervised models are explored and compared including logistic regression, neural networks, random forest, boosted tree and support vector machines. The boosted tree model shows the best fraud detection result (FDR = 49.83%) for this particular data set. The resulting model can be utilized in a credit card fraud detection system. A similar model development process can be performed in related business domains such as insurance and telecommunications, to avoid or detect fraudulent activity.
文摘There are many factors influencing personal credit. We introduce Lasso technique to personal credit evaluation, and establish Lasso-logistic, Lasso-SVM and Group lasso-logistic models respectively. Variable selection and parameter estimation are also conducted simultaneously. Based on the personal credit data set from a certain lending platform, it can be concluded through experiments that compared with the full-variable Logistic model and the stepwise Logistic model, the variable selection ability of Group lasso-logistic model was the strongest, followed by Lasso-logistic and Lasso-SVM respectively. All three models based on Lasso variable selection have better filtering capability than stepwise selection. In the meantime, the Group lasso-logistic model can eliminate or retain relevant virtual variables as a group to facilitate model interpretation. In terms of prediction accuracy, Lasso-SVM had the highest prediction accuracy for default users in the training set, while in the test set, Group lasso-logistic had the best classification accuracy for default users. Whether in the training set or in the test set, the Lasso-logistic model has the best classification accuracy for non-default users. The model based on Lasso variable selection can also better screen out the key factors influencing personal credit risk.
