This paper explores the importance of customer-industry engagement (CIE) to peak energy demand by means of a newly developed Bayesian Network (BN) complex systems model entitled the Residential Electricity Peak Demand...This paper explores the importance of customer-industry engagement (CIE) to peak energy demand by means of a newly developed Bayesian Network (BN) complex systems model entitled the Residential Electricity Peak Demand Model (REPDM). The REPDM is based on a multi-disciplinary perspective designed to solve the complex problem of residential peak energy demand. The model provides a way to conceptualise and understand the factors that shift and reduce consumer demand in peak times. To gain insight into the importance of customer-industry engagement in affecting residential peak demand, this research investigates intervention impacts and major influences through testing five scenarios using different levels of customer-industry engagement activities. Scenario testing of the model outlines the dependencies between the customer-industry engagement interventions and the probabilities that are estimated to govern the dependencies that influence peak demand. The output from the model shows that there can be a strong interaction between the level of CIE activities and interventions. The influence of CIE activity can increase public and householder support for peak reduction and the model shows how the economic, technical and social interventions can achieve greater peak demand reductions when well-designed with appropriate levels of CIE activities.展开更多
A fuzzy modeling method for complex systems is studied. The notation of general stochastic neural network (GSNN) is presented and a new modeling method is given based on the combination of the modified Takagi and Suge...A fuzzy modeling method for complex systems is studied. The notation of general stochastic neural network (GSNN) is presented and a new modeling method is given based on the combination of the modified Takagi and Sugeno's (MTS) fuzzy model and one-order GSNN. Using expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm, parameter estimation and model selection procedures are given. It avoids the shortcomings brought by other methods such as BP algorithm, when the number of parameters is large, BP algorithm is still difficult to apply directly without fine tuning and subjective tinkering. Finally, the simulated example demonstrates the effectiveness.展开更多
The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(Ca...The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.展开更多
The complexity of large-scale network systems made of a large number of nonlinearly interconnected components is a restrictive facet for their modeling and analysis. In this paper, we propose a framework of hierarchic...The complexity of large-scale network systems made of a large number of nonlinearly interconnected components is a restrictive facet for their modeling and analysis. In this paper, we propose a framework of hierarchical modeling of a complex network system, based on a recursive unsupervised spectral clustering method. The hierarchical model serves the purpose of facilitating the management of complexity in the analysis of real-world critical infrastructures. We exemplify this by referring to the reliability analysis of the 380 kV Italian Power Transmission Network (IPTN). In this work of analysis, the classical component Importance Measures (IMs) of reliability theory have been extended to render them compatible and applicable to a complex distributed network system. By utilizing these extended IMs, the reliability properties of the IPTN system can be evaluated in the framework of the hierarchical system model, with the aim of providing risk managers with information on the risk/safety significance of system structures and components.展开更多
In this paper, the structure characteristics of open complex giant systems are concretely analysed in depth, thus the view and its significance to support the meta synthesis engineering with manifold knowledge models...In this paper, the structure characteristics of open complex giant systems are concretely analysed in depth, thus the view and its significance to support the meta synthesis engineering with manifold knowledge models are clarified. Furthermore, the knowledge based multifaceted modeling methodology for open complex giant systems is emphatically studied. The major points are as follows: (1) nonlinear mechanism and general information partition law; (2) from the symmetry and similarity to the acquisition of construction knowledge; (3) structures for hierarchical and nonhierarchical organizations; (4) the integration of manifold knowledge models; (5) the methodology of knowledge based multifaceted modeling.展开更多
In this paper, the method based on uniform design and neural network is proposed to model the complex system. In order to express the system characteristics all round, uniform design method is used to choose the model...In this paper, the method based on uniform design and neural network is proposed to model the complex system. In order to express the system characteristics all round, uniform design method is used to choose the modeling samples and obtain the overall information of the system;for the purpose of modeling the system or its characteristics, the artificial neural network is used to construct the model. Experiment indicates that this method can model the complex system effectively.展开更多
Establishing a reasonable evaluation index system is the basis and premise for the scientific evaluation of geographic national conditions. By analyzing the DPSIR model and its correlation and relation with the evalua...Establishing a reasonable evaluation index system is the basis and premise for the scientific evaluation of geographic national conditions. By analyzing the DPSIR model and its correlation and relation with the evaluation index system, the indexes for geographic national conditions were selected from the aspects of resources, ecology, environment, economy, society, etc to build an evaluation index system for geographic national conditions that consists of three hierarchies： index, criterion, and target levels. Furthermore, the index system was analyzed in terms of index integrity, low overlapping of elements, non-existence of isolated indexes, hierarchy of index system, etc., for the purpose of demonstrating that the DPSIR model-based evaluation index system for geographic national conditions meets the principles of index system establishment.展开更多
The biological immune system is a complex adaptive system.There are lots of benefits for building the model of the immune system.For biological researchers,they can test some hypotheses about the infection process or ...The biological immune system is a complex adaptive system.There are lots of benefits for building the model of the immune system.For biological researchers,they can test some hypotheses about the infection process or simulate the responses of some drugs.For computer researchers,they can build distributed,robust and fault tolerant networks inspired by the functions of the immune system.This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the literatures on modelling the immune system.From the methodology perspective,the paper compares and analyzes the existing approaches and models,and also demonstrates the focusing research effort on the future immune models in the next few years.展开更多
In this paper, by use of equivalence operators δi and semi-equivalence operators Εi we study the clustering problems of complex systems, present δ (1,3) disconnection principle, dual transformation principle and la...In this paper, by use of equivalence operators δi and semi-equivalence operators Εi we study the clustering problems of complex systems, present δ (1,3) disconnection principle, dual transformation principle and large-scale systems decomposition principle for analizing and operating complex systems, discuss interconnectivity and disconnectivity of complex systems in detail and present some related theorems. Finally, we discuss the levels of systems according to pansystems clustering approach proposed in this paper.展开更多
This paper establishes a very important scientific solution to science of complexity for physicists, and presents a multidisciplinary involved physics and engineering. The innovative solution for complex systems prese...This paper establishes a very important scientific solution to science of complexity for physicists, and presents a multidisciplinary involved physics and engineering. The innovative solution for complex systems presented here is verified on the basis of principles in engineering such as feed-back-system analysis using the classical control theory. This paper proposes that a complex system is a closed-loop system with a negative feedback element and is a solvable problem. A complex system can be analyzed using the system analysis theory in control engineering, and its behavior can be realized using a specially designed simulator.展开更多
Synchronization is a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in engineering and natural ecosystems.The study of explosive synchronization on a single-layer network gives the critical transition coupling strength that causes exp...Synchronization is a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in engineering and natural ecosystems.The study of explosive synchronization on a single-layer network gives the critical transition coupling strength that causes explosive synchronization.However, no significant findings have been made on multi-layer complex networks.This paper proposes a frequency-weighted Kuramoto model on a two-layer network and the critical coupling strength of explosive synchronization is obtained by both theoretical analysis and numerical validation.It is found that the critical value is affected by the interaction strength between layers and the number of network oscillators.The explosive synchronization will be hindered by enhancing the interaction and promoted by increasing the number of network oscillators.Our results have importance across a range of engineering and biological research fields.展开更多
In real life, in different industries, we often deal with systems designed for multiple use for performing single-type tasks. Processes taking place at this time are called service of requirements, and the systems the...In real life, in different industries, we often deal with systems designed for multiple use for performing single-type tasks. Processes taking place at this time are called service of requirements, and the systems themselves—Queueing Systems. This article is dedicated to computer software modelling of processes taking place in the systems in question, Markov processes in particular. In this article, by means of Matlab environment, software realization of one of the typical models of queueing service theory-multichannel QS with unreliable recoverable servers and limited number of requirements in the system, is fulfilled. The results of this research are important because it gives the possibility to use received results to determine optimality degree of some real queueing systems that possess Markov property.展开更多
During maintainability demonstration,the maintenance time for complex systems consisting of mixed technologies generally conforms to a mixture distribution.However existing maintainability standards and guidance do no...During maintainability demonstration,the maintenance time for complex systems consisting of mixed technologies generally conforms to a mixture distribution.However existing maintainability standards and guidance do not explain explicitly how to deal with this situation.This paper develops a comprehensive maintainability demonstration method for complex systems with a mixed maintenance time distribution.First of all,a K-means algorithm and an expectation-maximization(EM)algorithm are used to partition the maintenance time data for all possible clusters.The Bayesian information criterion(BIC)is then used to choose the optimal model.After this,the clustering results for equipment are obtained according to their degree of membership.The degree of similarity for the maintainability of different kinds of equipment is then determined using the projection method.By using a Bootstrap method,the prior distribution is obtained from the maintenance time data for the most similar equipment.Then,a test method based on Bayesian theory is outlined for the maintainability demonstration.Finally,the viability of the proposed approach is illustrated by means of an example.展开更多
Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view ...Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development.展开更多
The accurate assessment of the quality can materially affect the safety and life of the prefabricated construction.In this paper,we studied the overall module of concealed water supply pipeline,and a new complex seque...The accurate assessment of the quality can materially affect the safety and life of the prefabricated construction.In this paper,we studied the overall module of concealed water supply pipeline,and a new complex sequence quality evaluation model was established.By analyzing the small evaluation index elements of the model,the weight of the larger evaluation index could be deduced.The total quality evaluation score of the overall module could be obtained by calculating the weight value of the evaluation index,and then the quality standard of the overall module could be obtained.展开更多
An equipment maintenance system is naturally a complex dynamical system. The effective mamanagement must be based on the knowledge of the system＇s intrinsic dynamics. And the strueture of the maintenance system deter...An equipment maintenance system is naturally a complex dynamical system. The effective mamanagement must be based on the knowledge of the system＇s intrinsic dynamics. And the strueture of the maintenance system determines its behavior. This paper analyzes the basic structures and elements of a maintenance system for complex multi-components equipment. The maintenance system is considered as a dynamic system whose behavior is influenced by its structure＇s feedback and interaction, and the system＇s available resources. Building the dynamical model with Simulink, we show some results about the maintenance system＇s nonlinear dynamics, ods. The model can be used for understanding and which operational adjustments of maintenance which are never given by stochastic process methdetermining maintenance system behavior, towards n of maintenance requirements and timely supply of maintenance resources can be made in a more informed way.展开更多
文摘This paper explores the importance of customer-industry engagement (CIE) to peak energy demand by means of a newly developed Bayesian Network (BN) complex systems model entitled the Residential Electricity Peak Demand Model (REPDM). The REPDM is based on a multi-disciplinary perspective designed to solve the complex problem of residential peak energy demand. The model provides a way to conceptualise and understand the factors that shift and reduce consumer demand in peak times. To gain insight into the importance of customer-industry engagement in affecting residential peak demand, this research investigates intervention impacts and major influences through testing five scenarios using different levels of customer-industry engagement activities. Scenario testing of the model outlines the dependencies between the customer-industry engagement interventions and the probabilities that are estimated to govern the dependencies that influence peak demand. The output from the model shows that there can be a strong interaction between the level of CIE activities and interventions. The influence of CIE activity can increase public and householder support for peak reduction and the model shows how the economic, technical and social interventions can achieve greater peak demand reductions when well-designed with appropriate levels of CIE activities.
文摘A fuzzy modeling method for complex systems is studied. The notation of general stochastic neural network (GSNN) is presented and a new modeling method is given based on the combination of the modified Takagi and Sugeno's (MTS) fuzzy model and one-order GSNN. Using expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm, parameter estimation and model selection procedures are given. It avoids the shortcomings brought by other methods such as BP algorithm, when the number of parameters is large, BP algorithm is still difficult to apply directly without fine tuning and subjective tinkering. Finally, the simulated example demonstrates the effectiveness.
基金National Public Benefit Research Foundation of China (2008416048GYHY201006035)
文摘The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.
文摘The complexity of large-scale network systems made of a large number of nonlinearly interconnected components is a restrictive facet for their modeling and analysis. In this paper, we propose a framework of hierarchical modeling of a complex network system, based on a recursive unsupervised spectral clustering method. The hierarchical model serves the purpose of facilitating the management of complexity in the analysis of real-world critical infrastructures. We exemplify this by referring to the reliability analysis of the 380 kV Italian Power Transmission Network (IPTN). In this work of analysis, the classical component Importance Measures (IMs) of reliability theory have been extended to render them compatible and applicable to a complex distributed network system. By utilizing these extended IMs, the reliability properties of the IPTN system can be evaluated in the framework of the hierarchical system model, with the aim of providing risk managers with information on the risk/safety significance of system structures and components.
文摘In this paper, the structure characteristics of open complex giant systems are concretely analysed in depth, thus the view and its significance to support the meta synthesis engineering with manifold knowledge models are clarified. Furthermore, the knowledge based multifaceted modeling methodology for open complex giant systems is emphatically studied. The major points are as follows: (1) nonlinear mechanism and general information partition law; (2) from the symmetry and similarity to the acquisition of construction knowledge; (3) structures for hierarchical and nonhierarchical organizations; (4) the integration of manifold knowledge models; (5) the methodology of knowledge based multifaceted modeling.
文摘In this paper, the method based on uniform design and neural network is proposed to model the complex system. In order to express the system characteristics all round, uniform design method is used to choose the modeling samples and obtain the overall information of the system;for the purpose of modeling the system or its characteristics, the artificial neural network is used to construct the model. Experiment indicates that this method can model the complex system effectively.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41401462)the Independent Innovation Project of the Changjiang Institute of Survey,Planning,Design and Research(CX2015Z08)
文摘Establishing a reasonable evaluation index system is the basis and premise for the scientific evaluation of geographic national conditions. By analyzing the DPSIR model and its correlation and relation with the evaluation index system, the indexes for geographic national conditions were selected from the aspects of resources, ecology, environment, economy, society, etc to build an evaluation index system for geographic national conditions that consists of three hierarchies： index, criterion, and target levels. Furthermore, the index system was analyzed in terms of index integrity, low overlapping of elements, non-existence of isolated indexes, hierarchy of index system, etc., for the purpose of demonstrating that the DPSIR model-based evaluation index system for geographic national conditions meets the principles of index system establishment.
基金sponsored by the Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.20060183041the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60773096 and No. 60773098
文摘The biological immune system is a complex adaptive system.There are lots of benefits for building the model of the immune system.For biological researchers,they can test some hypotheses about the infection process or simulate the responses of some drugs.For computer researchers,they can build distributed,robust and fault tolerant networks inspired by the functions of the immune system.This paper provides a comprehensive survey of the literatures on modelling the immune system.From the methodology perspective,the paper compares and analyzes the existing approaches and models,and also demonstrates the focusing research effort on the future immune models in the next few years.
基金Supported by Lanzhou University key fund project"Modelling Principle and Approaches for Complex Systems
文摘In this paper, by use of equivalence operators δi and semi-equivalence operators Εi we study the clustering problems of complex systems, present δ (1,3) disconnection principle, dual transformation principle and large-scale systems decomposition principle for analizing and operating complex systems, discuss interconnectivity and disconnectivity of complex systems in detail and present some related theorems. Finally, we discuss the levels of systems according to pansystems clustering approach proposed in this paper.
文摘This paper establishes a very important scientific solution to science of complexity for physicists, and presents a multidisciplinary involved physics and engineering. The innovative solution for complex systems presented here is verified on the basis of principles in engineering such as feed-back-system analysis using the classical control theory. This paper proposes that a complex system is a closed-loop system with a negative feedback element and is a solvable problem. A complex system can be analyzed using the system analysis theory in control engineering, and its behavior can be realized using a specially designed simulator.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61771299)the Key Laboratory of Speciality Fiber Optics and Optical Access Networks,Shanghai University,China(Grant No.SKLSFO2012-14)+1 种基金Funding of the Key Laboratory of Wireless Sensor Network and Communication,Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology,ChinaFunding of the Shanghai Education Committee,Chinese Academy of Sciences,and Shanghai Science Committee(Grant Nos.12511503303,14511105602,and 14511105902)
文摘Synchronization is a phenomenon that is ubiquitous in engineering and natural ecosystems.The study of explosive synchronization on a single-layer network gives the critical transition coupling strength that causes explosive synchronization.However, no significant findings have been made on multi-layer complex networks.This paper proposes a frequency-weighted Kuramoto model on a two-layer network and the critical coupling strength of explosive synchronization is obtained by both theoretical analysis and numerical validation.It is found that the critical value is affected by the interaction strength between layers and the number of network oscillators.The explosive synchronization will be hindered by enhancing the interaction and promoted by increasing the number of network oscillators.Our results have importance across a range of engineering and biological research fields.
文摘In real life, in different industries, we often deal with systems designed for multiple use for performing single-type tasks. Processes taking place at this time are called service of requirements, and the systems themselves—Queueing Systems. This article is dedicated to computer software modelling of processes taking place in the systems in question, Markov processes in particular. In this article, by means of Matlab environment, software realization of one of the typical models of queueing service theory-multichannel QS with unreliable recoverable servers and limited number of requirements in the system, is fulfilled. The results of this research are important because it gives the possibility to use received results to determine optimality degree of some real queueing systems that possess Markov property.
基金supported by the National Defense Pre-research Funds(9140A27010215JB34422)
文摘During maintainability demonstration,the maintenance time for complex systems consisting of mixed technologies generally conforms to a mixture distribution.However existing maintainability standards and guidance do not explain explicitly how to deal with this situation.This paper develops a comprehensive maintainability demonstration method for complex systems with a mixed maintenance time distribution.First of all,a K-means algorithm and an expectation-maximization(EM)algorithm are used to partition the maintenance time data for all possible clusters.The Bayesian information criterion(BIC)is then used to choose the optimal model.After this,the clustering results for equipment are obtained according to their degree of membership.The degree of similarity for the maintainability of different kinds of equipment is then determined using the projection method.By using a Bootstrap method,the prior distribution is obtained from the maintenance time data for the most similar equipment.Then,a test method based on Bayesian theory is outlined for the maintainability demonstration.Finally,the viability of the proposed approach is illustrated by means of an example.
文摘Spatio-temporal variability and dynamics in Sahelian agro-pastoral zones make each local situation a special case. These specificities must be considered to guide the dissemination of agricultural options with a view to sustainable development. The territorial scale of municipalities is not sufficient for this necessary contextualization;the scale of the “village terroir” seems to be a better option. This is the hypothesis we put forward in the framework of the Global Collaboration for Resilient Food Systems program (CRFS), i.e. local context is spatially defined by village terroir. The study is based on data collected through participatory mapping and surveys in “village terroirs” in three regions of Niger (Maradi, Dosso and Tillabéri). Then the links between farm managers and their cultivated land, as well as the spatio-temporal dynamics of local context are analyzed. This study provides evidence of the existence and functional usefulness of the village terroir for farmers, their land management and their activities. It demonstrates the usefulness of contextualizing agricultural options at this scale. Their analysis elucidates the links between “terroirs village” and the specific functioning of the agrosocio-ecosystems acting on each of them, thus laying the systemic and geographical foundations for a model of the spatio- temporal dynamics of “village terroirs”. This initial work has opened up new perspectives in modeling and sustainable development.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71403052)Educational Commission of Fujian Province,China(Nos.JAS170304,JAS170303)+1 种基金Youth Foundation of Fujian University of Technology,China(No.GY-S17101)Education Research Foundation of Fujian University of Technology,China(Nos.GB-K-17-28,GB-J-16-12)
文摘The accurate assessment of the quality can materially affect the safety and life of the prefabricated construction.In this paper,we studied the overall module of concealed water supply pipeline,and a new complex sequence quality evaluation model was established.By analyzing the small evaluation index elements of the model,the weight of the larger evaluation index could be deduced.The total quality evaluation score of the overall module could be obtained by calculating the weight value of the evaluation index,and then the quality standard of the overall module could be obtained.
文摘An equipment maintenance system is naturally a complex dynamical system. The effective mamanagement must be based on the knowledge of the system＇s intrinsic dynamics. And the strueture of the maintenance system determines its behavior. This paper analyzes the basic structures and elements of a maintenance system for complex multi-components equipment. The maintenance system is considered as a dynamic system whose behavior is influenced by its structure＇s feedback and interaction, and the system＇s available resources. Building the dynamical model with Simulink, we show some results about the maintenance system＇s nonlinear dynamics, ods. The model can be used for understanding and which operational adjustments of maintenance which are never given by stochastic process methdetermining maintenance system behavior, towards n of maintenance requirements and timely supply of maintenance resources can be made in a more informed way.
