Siberian-Arctic heatwaves(SAHs)disrupt ecosystems by increasing wildfires,thawing permafrost,and threatening Arctic communities.As SAHs become more frequent and intense,accurate prediction is crucial for preparedness ...Siberian-Arctic heatwaves(SAHs)disrupt ecosystems by increasing wildfires,thawing permafrost,and threatening Arctic communities.As SAHs become more frequent and intense,accurate prediction is crucial for preparedness and mitigating their impacts.We demonstrate that April surface temperatures in the Siberian Arctic can be predicted one month in advance with a skill of 0.75(1979-2022)using a regression model based on Arctic stratospheric ozone,the Arctic Oscillation,and sea ice in the Kara Sea.This model successfully predicts six of seven SAHs,identifying three driven by extreme ozone depletion and three by significant sea-ice loss.Additionally,from 1979 to 1997,warming was primarily caused by ozone depletion,while from 1998 to 2022,sea-ice loss became the main factor.Our findings indicate that SAHs are predictable and recommend this model for real-time monitoring and forecasting,highlighting its potential to enhance preparedness and reduce adverse effects.展开更多
AIM:To evaluate long-term visual field(VF)prediction using K-means clustering in patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG).METHODS:Patients who underwent 24-2 VF tests≥10 were included in this study.Using 52 to...AIM:To evaluate long-term visual field(VF)prediction using K-means clustering in patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG).METHODS:Patients who underwent 24-2 VF tests≥10 were included in this study.Using 52 total deviation values(TDVs)from the first 10 VF tests of the training dataset,VF points were clustered into several regions using the hierarchical ordered partitioning and collapsing hybrid(HOPACH)and K-means clustering.Based on the clustering results,a linear regression analysis was applied to each clustered region of the testing dataset to predict the TDVs of the 10th VF test.Three to nine VF tests were used to predict the 10th VF test,and the prediction errors(root mean square error,RMSE)of each clustering method and pointwise linear regression(PLR)were compared.RESULTS:The training group consisted of 228 patients(mean age,54.20±14.38y;123 males and 105 females),and the testing group included 81 patients(mean age,54.88±15.22y;43 males and 38 females).All subjects were diagnosed with POAG.Fifty-two VF points were clustered into 11 and nine regions using HOPACH and K-means clustering,respectively.K-means clustering had a lower prediction error than PLR when n=1:3 and 1:4(both P≤0.003).The prediction errors of K-means clustering were lower than those of HOPACH in all sections(n=1:4 to 1:9;all P≤0.011),except for n=1:3(P=0.680).PLR outperformed K-means clustering only when n=1:8 and 1:9(both P≤0.020).CONCLUSION:K-means clustering can predict longterm VF test results more accurately in patients with POAG with limited VF data.展开更多
Black-box models have demonstrated remarkable accuracy in forecasting building energy loads.However,they usually lack interpretability and do not incorporate domain knowledge,making it difficult for users to trust the...Black-box models have demonstrated remarkable accuracy in forecasting building energy loads.However,they usually lack interpretability and do not incorporate domain knowledge,making it difficult for users to trust their predictions in practical applications.One important and interesting question remains unanswered:is it possible to use intrinsically interpretable models to achieve accuracy comparable to that of black-box models?With an aim of answering this question,this study proposes an intrinsically interpretable machine learning-based method to forecast building energy loads.It creatively combines two intrinsically interpretable machine learning algorithms:clustering decision trees and adaptive multiple linear regression.Clustering decision trees aim to automatically identify various building operation conditions,allowing for the training of multiple models tailored to each condition.It can reduce the complexity of model training data,leading to higher accuracy.Adaptive multiple linear regression is an improved regression algorithm tailored to building energy load prediction.It can adaptively modify regression coefficients according to building operations,enhancing the non-linear fitting capability of multiple linear regression.The proposed method is evaluated utilizing the operational data from an office building.The results indicate that the proposed method exhibits comparable accuracy to both random forests and extreme gradient boosting.Furthermore,it shows significantly superior accuracy,with an average improvement of 10.2%,compared with some popular black-box algorithms such as artificial neural networks,support vector regression,and classification and regression trees.As for model interpretability,the proposed method reveals that historical cooling loads are the most crucial for predicting building cooling loads under most conditions.Additionally,outdoor air temperature has a significant contribution to building cooling load prediction during the daytime on weekdays in summer and transition seasons.In the future,it will be valuable to explore integrating the laws of physics into the proposed method to further enhance its interpretability.展开更多
Shape prediction of deformable linear objects(DLO)plays critical roles in robotics,medical devices,aerospace,and manufacturing,especially in manipulating objects such as cables,wires,and fibers.Due to the inherent fle...Shape prediction of deformable linear objects(DLO)plays critical roles in robotics,medical devices,aerospace,and manufacturing,especially in manipulating objects such as cables,wires,and fibers.Due to the inherent flexibility of DLO and their complex deformation behaviors,such as bending and torsion,it is challenging to predict their dynamic characteristics accurately.Although the traditional physical modeling method can simulate the complex deformation behavior of DLO,the calculation cost is high and it is difficult to meet the demand of real-time prediction.In addition,the scarcity of data resources also limits the prediction accuracy of existing models.To solve these problems,a method of fiber shape prediction based on a physical information graph neural network(PIGNN)is proposed in this paper.This method cleverly combines the powerful expressive power of graph neural networks with the strict constraints of physical laws.Specifically,we learn the initial deformation model of the fiber through graph neural networks(GNN)to provide a good initial estimate for the model,which helps alleviate the problem of data resource scarcity.During the training process,we incorporate the physical prior knowledge of the dynamic deformation of the fiber optics into the loss function as a constraint,which is then fed back to the network model.This ensures that the shape of the fiber optics gradually approaches the true target shape,effectively solving the complex nonlinear behavior prediction problem of deformable linear objects.Experimental results demonstrate that,compared to traditional methods,the proposed method significantly reduces execution time and prediction error when handling the complex deformations of deformable fibers.This showcases its potential application value and superiority in fiber manipulation.展开更多
In order to solve serious urban transport problems, according to the proved chaotic characteristic of traffic flow, a non linear chaotic model to analyze the time series of traffic flow is proposed. This model recons...In order to solve serious urban transport problems, according to the proved chaotic characteristic of traffic flow, a non linear chaotic model to analyze the time series of traffic flow is proposed. This model reconstructs the time series of traffic flow in the phase space firstly, and the correlative information in the traffic flow is extracted richly, on the basis of it, a predicted equation for the reconstructed information is established by using chaotic theory, and for the purpose of obtaining the optimal predicted results, recognition and optimization to the model parameters are done by using genetic algorithm. Practical prediction research of urban traffic flow shows that this model has famous predicted precision, and it can provide exact reference for urban traffic programming and control.展开更多
Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various as...Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.展开更多
Based on the Bayesian information criterion, this paper proposes the improved local linear prediction method to predict chaotic time series. This method uses spatial correlation and temporal correlation simultaneously...Based on the Bayesian information criterion, this paper proposes the improved local linear prediction method to predict chaotic time series. This method uses spatial correlation and temporal correlation simultaneously. Simulation results show that the improved local linear prediction method can effectively make multi-step and one-step prediction of chaotic time series and the multi-step prediction performance and one-step prediction accuracy of the improved local linear prediction method are superior to those of the traditional local linear prediction method.展开更多
In this paper, we propose an adaptive strategy based on the linear prediction of queue length to minimize congestion in Barabaisi-Albert （BA） scale-free networks. This strategy uses local knowledge of traffic condit...In this paper, we propose an adaptive strategy based on the linear prediction of queue length to minimize congestion in Barabaisi-Albert （BA） scale-free networks. This strategy uses local knowledge of traffic conditions and allows nodes to be able to self-coordinate their accepting probability to the incoming packets. We show that the strategy can delay remarkably the onset of congestion and systems avoiding the congestion can benefit from hierarchical organization of accepting rates of nodes. Furthermore, with the increase of prediction orders, we achieve larger values for the critical load together with a smooth transition from free-flow to congestion.展开更多
The application of the linear guideways is very extensive, such as automation equipment, heavy-duty carry equipment, heavy-cut machining tool, CNC grinding machine, large-scale planning machine and machining center wi...The application of the linear guideways is very extensive, such as automation equipment, heavy-duty carry equipment, heavy-cut machining tool, CNC grinding machine, large-scale planning machine and machining center with the demand of high rigidity and heavy load. By means of the study of contact behavior between the roller/guideway and roller/slider, roller type linear guideways can improve the machining accuracy. The goal of this paper is to construct the fatigue life model of the linear guideway, with the help of the contact mechanics of rollers. In beginning, the analyses of the rigidity of a single roller compressed between guideway and slider was conducted. Then, the normal contact pressure of linear guideways was obtained by using the superposition method, and verified by the FEM software (ANSYS workbench). Finally, the bearing life theory proposed by Lundberg and Palmgren was used to describe the contact fatigue life.展开更多
Hybrid wavelength-division-multiplexing(WDM)/time-division-multiplexing(TDM) ethernet passive optical networks(EPONs) can achieve low per-subscriber cost and scalability to increase the number of subscribers. This pap...Hybrid wavelength-division-multiplexing(WDM)/time-division-multiplexing(TDM) ethernet passive optical networks(EPONs) can achieve low per-subscriber cost and scalability to increase the number of subscribers. This paper discusses dynamic wavelength and bandwidth allocation(DWBA) algorithm in hybrid WDM/TDM EPONs.Based on the correlation structure of the variable bit rate(VBR) video traffic,we propose a quality-ofservice (QoS) supported DWBA using adaptive linear traffic prediction.Wavelength and timeslot are allocated dynamically by optical line terminal(OLT) to all optical network units(ONUs) based on the bandwidth requests and the guaranteed service level agreements(SLA) of all ONUs.Mean square error of the predicted average arriving rate of compound video traffic during waiting period is minimized through Wiener-Hopf equation.Simulation results show that the DWBA-adaptive-linear-prediction(DWBA-ALP) algorithm can significantly improve the QoS performances in terms of low delay and high bandwidth utilization.展开更多
Polymer optical materials are becoming increasingly important in modern technologies owing to their unique properties.This study applies coupled perturbed density functional theory(DFT)to predict the refractive index(...Polymer optical materials are becoming increasingly important in modern technologies owing to their unique properties.This study applies coupled perturbed density functional theory(DFT)to predict the refractive index(RI)and Abbe number of polymers.Using the LorentzLorenz equation,the frequency-dependent polarizability and molecular volume were calculated to estimate RI.Wavelength-dependent RI values were used to derive the Abbe numbers.Our results show a strong correlation with experimental data,with Pearson coefficients of 0.912 for RI and 0.968 for Abbe number,enabling the introduction of linear correction functions to minimize discrepancies between theoretical predictions and experimental results.By categorizing polymers into classes such as poly(methyl methacrylate)(PMMA)-,polyethylene(PE)-,polycarbonate(PC)-,polyimide(PI)-,and polyurethane(PU)-based materials,this method enables precise predictions and reduces discrepancies using linear correction functions.This efficient and direct computational framework avoids the complexity of traditional models and offers a practical tool for the design and optimization of advanced optical materials.展开更多
To cope with the time-varying and Dopper-broadened clutter in airborne phase array radars, it is required that the signal processing should be adaptive and two-dimensional both in time and in space. However, the optim...To cope with the time-varying and Dopper-broadened clutter in airborne phase array radars, it is required that the signal processing should be adaptive and two-dimensional both in time and in space. However, the optimum two-dimensional adaptive processing is hard to realize real-timely because it requires a large amount of computation. From the idea of approximating the clutter process by using an auto regressive process, a linear prediction approach is proposed to realize the adaptive space-time processing of airborne adaptive array signals. The research shows that the clutter process can be well approximated by a low-order AR process, so a low-order linear prediction receiver can get a sub-optimum performance at a very low expense. Besides, the low-order linear prediction receiver has additional degrees of freedom to cope with other colored noises and interferences. In consideration of the many advantages of the linear prediction receiver in both algorithms and realizations, it has a good prospect in its application to air borne adaptive array signal processing.展开更多
In the reconstructed phase space, based on the Karhunen-Loeve transformation （KLT）, the new local linear prediction method is proposed to predict chaotic time series. ＆ noise-free chaotic time series and a noise ad...In the reconstructed phase space, based on the Karhunen-Loeve transformation （KLT）, the new local linear prediction method is proposed to predict chaotic time series. ＆ noise-free chaotic time series and a noise added chaotic time series are analyzed. The simulation results show that the KLT-based local linear prediction method can effectively make one-step and multi-step prediction for chaotic time series, and the one-step and multi-step prediction accuracies of the KLT-based local linear prediction method are superior to that of the traditional local linear prediction.展开更多
Motivated by wavelet transform, this paper presents a pyramid linear prediction coding (PLPC) algorithmfor digitial images.The algorithm otltpots the rough colltour of an image and a prediction ermr sequence. In contr...Motivated by wavelet transform, this paper presents a pyramid linear prediction coding (PLPC) algorithmfor digitial images.The algorithm otltpots the rough colltour of an image and a prediction ermr sequence. In contrastto the conventional linear prediction method, PLPC exhibits very little sensitivity to channel ermrs and provides amore efficient compression performance. The results of simulations with Lena 512 X 512 and bitrates ranging from0.17 to 3.2 (lossless)bits/pixel are given to show that the PLPC method is very suitable for the human visualperception.展开更多
In order to improve the breeding effect of livestock, the data were read from an Excel file with Active Server Page （ASP） programs, and the breeding values of breeding stock were calculated by best linear unbiased p...In order to improve the breeding effect of livestock, the data were read from an Excel file with Active Server Page （ASP） programs, and the breeding values of breeding stock were calculated by best linear unbiased prediction （BLUP） method.展开更多
The development of many estimators of parameters of linear regression model is traceable to non-validity of the assumptions under which the model is formulated, especially when applied to real life situation. This not...The development of many estimators of parameters of linear regression model is traceable to non-validity of the assumptions under which the model is formulated, especially when applied to real life situation. This notwithstanding, regression analysis may aim at prediction. Consequently, this paper examines the performances of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator, Cochrane-Orcutt (COR) estimator, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator and the estimators based on Principal Component (PC) analysis in prediction of linear regression model under the joint violations of the assumption of non-stochastic regressors, independent regressors and error terms. With correlated stochastic normal variables as regressors and autocorrelated error terms, Monte-Carlo experiments were conducted and the study further identifies the best estimator that can be used for prediction purpose by adopting the goodness of fit statistics of the estimators. From the results, it is observed that the performances of COR at each level of correlation (multicollinearity) and that of ML, especially when the sample size is large, over the levels of autocorrelation have a convex-like pattern while that of OLS and PC are concave-like. Also, as the levels of multicollinearity increase, the estimators, except the PC estimators when multicollinearity is negative, rapidly perform better over the levels autocorrelation. The COR and ML estimators are generally best for prediction in the presence of multicollinearity and autocorrelated error terms. However, at low levels of autocorrelation, the OLS estimator is either best or competes consistently with the best estimator, while the PC estimator is either best or competes with the best when multicollinearity level is high(λ>0.8 or λ-0.49).展开更多
The problem of blind adaptive equalization of underwater single-input multiple-output (SIMO) acoustic channels was analyzed by using the linear prediction method.Minimum mean square error (MMSE) blind equalizers with ...The problem of blind adaptive equalization of underwater single-input multiple-output (SIMO) acoustic channels was analyzed by using the linear prediction method.Minimum mean square error (MMSE) blind equalizers with arbitrary delay were described on a basis of channel identification.Two methods for calculating linear MMSE equalizers were proposed.One was based on full channel identification and realized using RLS adaptive algorithms,and the other was based on the zero-delay MMSE equalizer and realized using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms,respectively.Performance of the three proposed algorithms and comparison with two existing zero-forcing (ZF) equalization algorithms were investigated by simulations utilizing two underwater acoustic channels.The results show that the proposed algorithms are robust enough to channel order mismatch.They have almost the same performance as the corresponding ZF algorithms under a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio and better performance under a low SNR.展开更多
The universal creep equation is successful in relating the creep （ε） to the aging time （t） , coefficient of retardation time （β） , and intrinsic time （ to ）. This relation was used to treat the creep experim...The universal creep equation is successful in relating the creep （ε） to the aging time （t） , coefficient of retardation time （β） , and intrinsic time （ to ）. This relation was used to treat the creep experimental data for polyvinyl chloride （ PVC ） specimens at a given stress and different aging times. The βgs found by the “polynomial fitting” method in this work instead of the “middle - point” method reported in the literature. The unified master line was constructed with the treated data and curves according to the universal equation. The master line can be used to predict the long- term creed behavior and lifetime by extrapolating.展开更多
In order to achieve failure prediction without manual intervention for distributed systems, a novel failure feature analysis and extraction approach to automate failure prediction is proposed. Compared with the tradit...In order to achieve failure prediction without manual intervention for distributed systems, a novel failure feature analysis and extraction approach to automate failure prediction is proposed. Compared with the traditional methods which focus on building heuristic rules or models, the autonomic prediction approach analyzes the nonlinear correlation of failure features by recognizing failure patterns. Failure data are sorted according to the nonlinear correlation and failure signature is proposed for autonomic prediction. In addition, the Manifold Learning algorithm named supervised locally linear embedding is applied to achieve feature extraction. Based on the runtime monitoring of failure metrics, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method has better performance in terms of both correlation recognition precision and feature extraction quality and thus it can be used to design efficient autonomic failure prediction for distributed systems.展开更多
The development of prediction supports is a critical step in information systems engineering in this era defined by the knowledge economy, the hub of which is big data. Currently, the lack of a predictive model, wheth...The development of prediction supports is a critical step in information systems engineering in this era defined by the knowledge economy, the hub of which is big data. Currently, the lack of a predictive model, whether qualitative or quantitative, depending on a company’s areas of intervention can handicap or weaken its competitive capacities, endangering its survival. In terms of quantitative prediction, depending on the efficacy criteria, a variety of methods and/or tools are available. The multiple linear regression method is one of the methods used for this purpose. A linear regression model is a regression model of an explained variable on one or more explanatory variables in which the function that links the explanatory variables to the explained variable has linear parameters. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate how to use multiple linear regressions, which is one aspect of decisional mathematics. The use of multiple linear regressions on random data, which can be replaced by real data collected by or from organizations, provides decision makers with reliable data knowledge. As a result, machine learning methods can provide decision makers with relevant and trustworthy data. The main goal of this article is therefore to define the objective function on which the influencing factors for its optimization will be defined using the linear regression method.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0805104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)under Grant Nos.41925022,42105016 and 42375070+1 种基金supported by the NSFC under Grant No.41888101the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(Grant No.RGPIN-2019-04511)。
文摘Siberian-Arctic heatwaves(SAHs)disrupt ecosystems by increasing wildfires,thawing permafrost,and threatening Arctic communities.As SAHs become more frequent and intense,accurate prediction is crucial for preparedness and mitigating their impacts.We demonstrate that April surface temperatures in the Siberian Arctic can be predicted one month in advance with a skill of 0.75(1979-2022)using a regression model based on Arctic stratospheric ozone,the Arctic Oscillation,and sea ice in the Kara Sea.This model successfully predicts six of seven SAHs,identifying three driven by extreme ozone depletion and three by significant sea-ice loss.Additionally,from 1979 to 1997,warming was primarily caused by ozone depletion,while from 1998 to 2022,sea-ice loss became the main factor.Our findings indicate that SAHs are predictable and recommend this model for real-time monitoring and forecasting,highlighting its potential to enhance preparedness and reduce adverse effects.
基金Supported by the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute(KHIDI),the Ministry of Health&Welfare,Republic of Korea(No.RS-2020-KH088726)the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Coordinating Center(PACEN),the Ministry of Health and Welfare,Republic of Korea(No.HC19C0276)the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF),the Korea Government(MSIT)(No.RS-2023-00247504).
文摘AIM:To evaluate long-term visual field(VF)prediction using K-means clustering in patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG).METHODS:Patients who underwent 24-2 VF tests≥10 were included in this study.Using 52 total deviation values(TDVs)from the first 10 VF tests of the training dataset,VF points were clustered into several regions using the hierarchical ordered partitioning and collapsing hybrid(HOPACH)and K-means clustering.Based on the clustering results,a linear regression analysis was applied to each clustered region of the testing dataset to predict the TDVs of the 10th VF test.Three to nine VF tests were used to predict the 10th VF test,and the prediction errors(root mean square error,RMSE)of each clustering method and pointwise linear regression(PLR)were compared.RESULTS:The training group consisted of 228 patients(mean age,54.20±14.38y;123 males and 105 females),and the testing group included 81 patients(mean age,54.88±15.22y;43 males and 38 females).All subjects were diagnosed with POAG.Fifty-two VF points were clustered into 11 and nine regions using HOPACH and K-means clustering,respectively.K-means clustering had a lower prediction error than PLR when n=1:3 and 1:4(both P≤0.003).The prediction errors of K-means clustering were lower than those of HOPACH in all sections(n=1:4 to 1:9;all P≤0.011),except for n=1:3(P=0.680).PLR outperformed K-means clustering only when n=1:8 and 1:9(both P≤0.020).CONCLUSION:K-means clustering can predict longterm VF test results more accurately in patients with POAG with limited VF data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52161135202).
文摘Black-box models have demonstrated remarkable accuracy in forecasting building energy loads.However,they usually lack interpretability and do not incorporate domain knowledge,making it difficult for users to trust their predictions in practical applications.One important and interesting question remains unanswered:is it possible to use intrinsically interpretable models to achieve accuracy comparable to that of black-box models?With an aim of answering this question,this study proposes an intrinsically interpretable machine learning-based method to forecast building energy loads.It creatively combines two intrinsically interpretable machine learning algorithms:clustering decision trees and adaptive multiple linear regression.Clustering decision trees aim to automatically identify various building operation conditions,allowing for the training of multiple models tailored to each condition.It can reduce the complexity of model training data,leading to higher accuracy.Adaptive multiple linear regression is an improved regression algorithm tailored to building energy load prediction.It can adaptively modify regression coefficients according to building operations,enhancing the non-linear fitting capability of multiple linear regression.The proposed method is evaluated utilizing the operational data from an office building.The results indicate that the proposed method exhibits comparable accuracy to both random forests and extreme gradient boosting.Furthermore,it shows significantly superior accuracy,with an average improvement of 10.2%,compared with some popular black-box algorithms such as artificial neural networks,support vector regression,and classification and regression trees.As for model interpretability,the proposed method reveals that historical cooling loads are the most crucial for predicting building cooling loads under most conditions.Additionally,outdoor air temperature has a significant contribution to building cooling load prediction during the daytime on weekdays in summer and transition seasons.In the future,it will be valuable to explore integrating the laws of physics into the proposed method to further enhance its interpretability.
基金Supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant Nos.2232024Y-01,LZB2023001)DHU Distinguished Young Professor Program+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52275478)AI-Enhanced Research Program of Shanghai Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.SMEC-AI-DHUY-05)。
文摘Shape prediction of deformable linear objects(DLO)plays critical roles in robotics,medical devices,aerospace,and manufacturing,especially in manipulating objects such as cables,wires,and fibers.Due to the inherent flexibility of DLO and their complex deformation behaviors,such as bending and torsion,it is challenging to predict their dynamic characteristics accurately.Although the traditional physical modeling method can simulate the complex deformation behavior of DLO,the calculation cost is high and it is difficult to meet the demand of real-time prediction.In addition,the scarcity of data resources also limits the prediction accuracy of existing models.To solve these problems,a method of fiber shape prediction based on a physical information graph neural network(PIGNN)is proposed in this paper.This method cleverly combines the powerful expressive power of graph neural networks with the strict constraints of physical laws.Specifically,we learn the initial deformation model of the fiber through graph neural networks(GNN)to provide a good initial estimate for the model,which helps alleviate the problem of data resource scarcity.During the training process,we incorporate the physical prior knowledge of the dynamic deformation of the fiber optics into the loss function as a constraint,which is then fed back to the network model.This ensures that the shape of the fiber optics gradually approaches the true target shape,effectively solving the complex nonlinear behavior prediction problem of deformable linear objects.Experimental results demonstrate that,compared to traditional methods,the proposed method significantly reduces execution time and prediction error when handling the complex deformations of deformable fibers.This showcases its potential application value and superiority in fiber manipulation.
文摘In order to solve serious urban transport problems, according to the proved chaotic characteristic of traffic flow, a non linear chaotic model to analyze the time series of traffic flow is proposed. This model reconstructs the time series of traffic flow in the phase space firstly, and the correlative information in the traffic flow is extracted richly, on the basis of it, a predicted equation for the reconstructed information is established by using chaotic theory, and for the purpose of obtaining the optimal predicted results, recognition and optimization to the model parameters are done by using genetic algorithm. Practical prediction research of urban traffic flow shows that this model has famous predicted precision, and it can provide exact reference for urban traffic programming and control.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(32122066,32201855)STI2030—Major Projects(2023ZD04076).
文摘Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.
文摘Based on the Bayesian information criterion, this paper proposes the improved local linear prediction method to predict chaotic time series. This method uses spatial correlation and temporal correlation simultaneously. Simulation results show that the improved local linear prediction method can effectively make multi-step and one-step prediction of chaotic time series and the multi-step prediction performance and one-step prediction accuracy of the improved local linear prediction method are superior to those of the traditional local linear prediction method.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 60672095)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China (Grant No. KYZ201300)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province, China (Grant No. BK2013000)the Youth Sci-Tech Innovation Fund of Nanjing Agricultural University, China (Grant No. KJ2010024)
文摘In this paper, we propose an adaptive strategy based on the linear prediction of queue length to minimize congestion in Barabaisi-Albert （BA） scale-free networks. This strategy uses local knowledge of traffic conditions and allows nodes to be able to self-coordinate their accepting probability to the incoming packets. We show that the strategy can delay remarkably the onset of congestion and systems avoiding the congestion can benefit from hierarchical organization of accepting rates of nodes. Furthermore, with the increase of prediction orders, we achieve larger values for the critical load together with a smooth transition from free-flow to congestion.
文摘The application of the linear guideways is very extensive, such as automation equipment, heavy-duty carry equipment, heavy-cut machining tool, CNC grinding machine, large-scale planning machine and machining center with the demand of high rigidity and heavy load. By means of the study of contact behavior between the roller/guideway and roller/slider, roller type linear guideways can improve the machining accuracy. The goal of this paper is to construct the fatigue life model of the linear guideway, with the help of the contact mechanics of rollers. In beginning, the analyses of the rigidity of a single roller compressed between guideway and slider was conducted. Then, the normal contact pressure of linear guideways was obtained by using the superposition method, and verified by the FEM software (ANSYS workbench). Finally, the bearing life theory proposed by Lundberg and Palmgren was used to describe the contact fatigue life.
文摘Hybrid wavelength-division-multiplexing(WDM)/time-division-multiplexing(TDM) ethernet passive optical networks(EPONs) can achieve low per-subscriber cost and scalability to increase the number of subscribers. This paper discusses dynamic wavelength and bandwidth allocation(DWBA) algorithm in hybrid WDM/TDM EPONs.Based on the correlation structure of the variable bit rate(VBR) video traffic,we propose a quality-ofservice (QoS) supported DWBA using adaptive linear traffic prediction.Wavelength and timeslot are allocated dynamically by optical line terminal(OLT) to all optical network units(ONUs) based on the bandwidth requests and the guaranteed service level agreements(SLA) of all ONUs.Mean square error of the predicted average arriving rate of compound video traffic during waiting period is minimized through Wiener-Hopf equation.Simulation results show that the DWBA-adaptive-linear-prediction(DWBA-ALP) algorithm can significantly improve the QoS performances in terms of low delay and high bandwidth utilization.
基金financially supported by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Project(Nos.JCYJ20210324095210028,JSGGZD20220822095201003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U21A2087)。
文摘Polymer optical materials are becoming increasingly important in modern technologies owing to their unique properties.This study applies coupled perturbed density functional theory(DFT)to predict the refractive index(RI)and Abbe number of polymers.Using the LorentzLorenz equation,the frequency-dependent polarizability and molecular volume were calculated to estimate RI.Wavelength-dependent RI values were used to derive the Abbe numbers.Our results show a strong correlation with experimental data,with Pearson coefficients of 0.912 for RI and 0.968 for Abbe number,enabling the introduction of linear correction functions to minimize discrepancies between theoretical predictions and experimental results.By categorizing polymers into classes such as poly(methyl methacrylate)(PMMA)-,polyethylene(PE)-,polycarbonate(PC)-,polyimide(PI)-,and polyurethane(PU)-based materials,this method enables precise predictions and reduces discrepancies using linear correction functions.This efficient and direct computational framework avoids the complexity of traditional models and offers a practical tool for the design and optimization of advanced optical materials.
文摘To cope with the time-varying and Dopper-broadened clutter in airborne phase array radars, it is required that the signal processing should be adaptive and two-dimensional both in time and in space. However, the optimum two-dimensional adaptive processing is hard to realize real-timely because it requires a large amount of computation. From the idea of approximating the clutter process by using an auto regressive process, a linear prediction approach is proposed to realize the adaptive space-time processing of airborne adaptive array signals. The research shows that the clutter process can be well approximated by a low-order AR process, so a low-order linear prediction receiver can get a sub-optimum performance at a very low expense. Besides, the low-order linear prediction receiver has additional degrees of freedom to cope with other colored noises and interferences. In consideration of the many advantages of the linear prediction receiver in both algorithms and realizations, it has a good prospect in its application to air borne adaptive array signal processing.
基金supported partly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60573065)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China(Y2007G33)the Key Subject Research Foundation of Shandong Province,China(XTD0708).
文摘In the reconstructed phase space, based on the Karhunen-Loeve transformation （KLT）, the new local linear prediction method is proposed to predict chaotic time series. ＆ noise-free chaotic time series and a noise added chaotic time series are analyzed. The simulation results show that the KLT-based local linear prediction method can effectively make one-step and multi-step prediction for chaotic time series, and the one-step and multi-step prediction accuracies of the KLT-based local linear prediction method are superior to that of the traditional local linear prediction.
文摘Motivated by wavelet transform, this paper presents a pyramid linear prediction coding (PLPC) algorithmfor digitial images.The algorithm otltpots the rough colltour of an image and a prediction ermr sequence. In contrastto the conventional linear prediction method, PLPC exhibits very little sensitivity to channel ermrs and provides amore efficient compression performance. The results of simulations with Lena 512 X 512 and bitrates ranging from0.17 to 3.2 (lossless)bits/pixel are given to show that the PLPC method is very suitable for the human visualperception.
文摘In order to improve the breeding effect of livestock, the data were read from an Excel file with Active Server Page （ASP） programs, and the breeding values of breeding stock were calculated by best linear unbiased prediction （BLUP） method.
文摘The development of many estimators of parameters of linear regression model is traceable to non-validity of the assumptions under which the model is formulated, especially when applied to real life situation. This notwithstanding, regression analysis may aim at prediction. Consequently, this paper examines the performances of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator, Cochrane-Orcutt (COR) estimator, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator and the estimators based on Principal Component (PC) analysis in prediction of linear regression model under the joint violations of the assumption of non-stochastic regressors, independent regressors and error terms. With correlated stochastic normal variables as regressors and autocorrelated error terms, Monte-Carlo experiments were conducted and the study further identifies the best estimator that can be used for prediction purpose by adopting the goodness of fit statistics of the estimators. From the results, it is observed that the performances of COR at each level of correlation (multicollinearity) and that of ML, especially when the sample size is large, over the levels of autocorrelation have a convex-like pattern while that of OLS and PC are concave-like. Also, as the levels of multicollinearity increase, the estimators, except the PC estimators when multicollinearity is negative, rapidly perform better over the levels autocorrelation. The COR and ML estimators are generally best for prediction in the presence of multicollinearity and autocorrelated error terms. However, at low levels of autocorrelation, the OLS estimator is either best or competes consistently with the best estimator, while the PC estimator is either best or competes with the best when multicollinearity level is high(λ>0.8 or λ-0.49).
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.60372086the Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of China under Grant No.200753
文摘The problem of blind adaptive equalization of underwater single-input multiple-output (SIMO) acoustic channels was analyzed by using the linear prediction method.Minimum mean square error (MMSE) blind equalizers with arbitrary delay were described on a basis of channel identification.Two methods for calculating linear MMSE equalizers were proposed.One was based on full channel identification and realized using RLS adaptive algorithms,and the other was based on the zero-delay MMSE equalizer and realized using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms,respectively.Performance of the three proposed algorithms and comparison with two existing zero-forcing (ZF) equalization algorithms were investigated by simulations utilizing two underwater acoustic channels.The results show that the proposed algorithms are robust enough to channel order mismatch.They have almost the same performance as the corresponding ZF algorithms under a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio and better performance under a low SNR.
基金Sponsored by the Departmet of Science ad Technology, Government of Heilongjiang Province(Grant No.GC04A407).
文摘The universal creep equation is successful in relating the creep （ε） to the aging time （t） , coefficient of retardation time （β） , and intrinsic time （ to ）. This relation was used to treat the creep experimental data for polyvinyl chloride （ PVC ） specimens at a given stress and different aging times. The βgs found by the “polynomial fitting” method in this work instead of the “middle - point” method reported in the literature. The unified master line was constructed with the treated data and curves according to the universal equation. The master line can be used to predict the long- term creed behavior and lifetime by extrapolating.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Programme of China （ No. 2007AA01Z401 ） and the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 90718003, 60973027）.
文摘In order to achieve failure prediction without manual intervention for distributed systems, a novel failure feature analysis and extraction approach to automate failure prediction is proposed. Compared with the traditional methods which focus on building heuristic rules or models, the autonomic prediction approach analyzes the nonlinear correlation of failure features by recognizing failure patterns. Failure data are sorted according to the nonlinear correlation and failure signature is proposed for autonomic prediction. In addition, the Manifold Learning algorithm named supervised locally linear embedding is applied to achieve feature extraction. Based on the runtime monitoring of failure metrics, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method has better performance in terms of both correlation recognition precision and feature extraction quality and thus it can be used to design efficient autonomic failure prediction for distributed systems.
文摘The development of prediction supports is a critical step in information systems engineering in this era defined by the knowledge economy, the hub of which is big data. Currently, the lack of a predictive model, whether qualitative or quantitative, depending on a company’s areas of intervention can handicap or weaken its competitive capacities, endangering its survival. In terms of quantitative prediction, depending on the efficacy criteria, a variety of methods and/or tools are available. The multiple linear regression method is one of the methods used for this purpose. A linear regression model is a regression model of an explained variable on one or more explanatory variables in which the function that links the explanatory variables to the explained variable has linear parameters. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate how to use multiple linear regressions, which is one aspect of decisional mathematics. The use of multiple linear regressions on random data, which can be replaced by real data collected by or from organizations, provides decision makers with reliable data knowledge. As a result, machine learning methods can provide decision makers with relevant and trustworthy data. The main goal of this article is therefore to define the objective function on which the influencing factors for its optimization will be defined using the linear regression method.
