Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are co...Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are conducted and compared to the control experiment. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS）. The results indicate that model predictions of rainfall are much more sensitive to the initial conditions than those of temperature and moisture. Further analyses of the surface rainfall equation and the moisture and cloud hydrometeor budgets reveal that the calculations of vapor condensation and deposition rates in the model account for the large sensitivities in rainfall simulations.展开更多
Various velocity models have been built for Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau with the purpose of revealing the internal dynamics and estimating local seismic hazards.In this study,we use a 3-D full-waveform modeling p...Various velocity models have been built for Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau with the purpose of revealing the internal dynamics and estimating local seismic hazards.In this study,we use a 3-D full-waveform modeling package to systematically validate three published continental-scale velocity models,that is,Shen2016,FWEA18,and USTClitho1.0,leveraging the ample datasets in Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region.Travel time residuals and waveform similarities are measured between observed empirical Green’s functions and synthetic waveforms.The results show that the Shen2016 model,derived from traditional surface wave tomography,performs best in fitting Rayleigh waves in the Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,followed by FWEA18,built from full-waveform inversion of long-period body and surface waves.The USTClitho1.0 model,although inverted from body wave datasets,is comparable with FWEA18 in fitting Rayleigh waves.The results also show that all the models are faster than the ground-truth model and show relatively large travel-time residuals and poor waveform similarities at shorter period bands,possibly caused by small-scale structural heterogeneities in the shallower crust.We further invert the time residuals for spatial velocity residuals and reveal that all three models underestimate the amplitudes of high-and low-velocity anomalies.The underestimated amplitude is up to 4%,which is non-negligible considering that the overall amplitude of anomalies is only 5%−10%in the crust.These results suggest that datasets and the inversion method are both essential to building accurate models and further refinements of these models are necessary.展开更多
The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, li...The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, like Conventional Rural Electrification (CRE), have proven economically unfeasible in such areas due to high infrastructure costs and low electricity demand. Consequently, Unconventional Rural Electrification (URE) technologies, such as Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), are gaining attention as viable alternatives. This study presents the design and simulation of an 80 kW CCS system, which taps power directly from a 132 kV transmission line to supply low-voltage consumers. The critical components of the CCS, the capacitors are calculated, then a MATLAB/Simulink model with the attained results is executed. Mathematical representation and state-space representation for maintaining the desired tapped voltage area also developed. The research further explores the feasibility and operational performance of this CCS configuration, aiming to address the challenges of rural electrification by offering a sustainable and scalable solution. The results show that the desired value of the tapped voltage can be achieved at any level of High Voltage (HV) with the selection of capacitors that are correctly rated. With an adequately designed control strategy, the research also shows that tapped voltage can be attained under both steady-state and dynamic loads. By leveraging CCS technology, the study demonstrates the potential for delivering reliable electricity to underserved areas, highlighting the system’s practicality and effectiveness in overcoming the limitations of conventional distribution methods.展开更多
The nozzle is a critical component responsible for generating most of the net thrust in a scramjet engine.The quality of its design directly affects the performance of the entire propulsion system.However,most turbule...The nozzle is a critical component responsible for generating most of the net thrust in a scramjet engine.The quality of its design directly affects the performance of the entire propulsion system.However,most turbulence models struggle to make accurate predictions for subsonic and supersonic flows in nozzles.In this study,we explored a novel model,the algebraic stress model k-kL-ARSM+J,to enhance the accuracy of turbulence numerical simulations.This new model was used to conduct numerical simulations of the design and off-design performance of a 3D supersonic asymmetric truncated nozzle designed in our laboratory,with the aim of providing a realistic pattern of changes.The research indicates that,compared to linear eddy viscosity turbulence models such as k-kL and shear stress transport(SST),the k-kL-ARSM+J algebraic stress model shows better accuracy in predicting the performance of supersonic nozzles.Its predictions were identical to the experimental values,enabling precise calculations of the nozzle.The performance trends of the nozzle are as follows:as the inlet Mach number increases,both thrust and pitching moment increase,but the rate of increase slows down.Lift peaks near the design Mach number and then rapidly decreases.With increasing inlet pressure,the nozzle thrust,lift,and pitching moment all show linear growth.As the flight altitude rises,the internal flow field within the nozzle remains relatively consistent due to the same supersonic nozzle inlet flow conditions.However,external to the nozzle,the change in external flow pressure results in the nozzle exit transitioning from over-expanded to under-expanded,leading to a shear layer behind the nozzle that initially converges towards the nozzle center and then diverges.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of the model top and damping layer on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones(TCs)and reveals the significant role of stratospheric gravity waves(SGWs).TCs can generate SGWs,wh...This paper investigates the impact of the model top and damping layer on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones(TCs)and reveals the significant role of stratospheric gravity waves(SGWs).TCs can generate SGWs,which propagate upward and outward into the stratosphere.These SGWs can reach the damping layer,which is a consequence of the numerical scheme employed,where they can affect the tangential circulation through the dragging and forcing processes.In models with a higher top boundary,this tangential circulation develops far from the TC and has minimal direct impact on TC intensity.By comparison,in models with a lower top(e.g.,20 km),the damping layer is located just above the top of the TC.The SGW dragging in the damping layer and the consequent tangential force can thus induce ascent outside the eyewall,promote latent heat release,tilt the eyewall,and enlarge the inner-core radius.This process will reduce inner-core vorticity advection within the boundary layer,and eventually inhibits the intensification of the TC.This suggests that when the thickness of the damping layer is 5 km,the TC numerical model top height should be at least higher than 20 km to generate more accurate simulations.展开更多
The multi-scale modeling combined with the cohesive zone model(CZM)and the molecular dynamics(MD)method were preformed to simulate the crack propagation in NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs).The metallographic microscope ...The multi-scale modeling combined with the cohesive zone model(CZM)and the molecular dynamics(MD)method were preformed to simulate the crack propagation in NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs).The metallographic microscope and image processing technology were employed to achieve a quantitative grain size distribution of NiTi alloys so as to provide experimental data for molecular dynamics modeling at the atomic scale.Considering the size effect of molecular dynamics model on material properties,a reasonable modeling size was provided by taking into account three characteristic dimensions from the perspective of macro,meso,and micro scales according to the Buckinghamπtheorem.Then,the corresponding MD simulation on deformation and fracture behavior was investigated to derive a parameterized traction-separation(T-S)law,and then it was embedded into cohesive elements of finite element software.Thus,the crack propagation behavior in NiTi alloys was reproduced by the finite element method(FEM).The experimental results show that the predicted initiation fracture toughness is in good agreement with experimental data.In addition,it is found that the dynamics initiation fracture toughness increases with decreasing grain size and increasing loading velocity.展开更多
Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which i...Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which is prone to either inadequate or excessive ablation.This paper aims to establish an ablation prediction model that guides MWA tumor surgical planning.Methods:An MWA process was first simulated by incorporating electromagnetic radiation equations,thermal equations,and optimized biological tissue parameters(dynamic dielectric and thermophysical parameters).The temperature distributions(the short/long diameters,and the total volume of the ablation zone)were then generated and verified by 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments.Subsequently,a series of data were obtained from the simulated temperature distributions and to further fit the novel ablation coagulated area prediction model(ACAPM),thus rendering the ablation-dose table for the guiding surgical plan.The MWA clinical patient data and clinical devices suggested data were used to validate the accuracy and practicability of the established predicted model.Results:The 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments demonstrated the accuracy of the simulated temperature distributions.Compared to traditional simulation methods,our approach reduces the long-diameter error of the ablation zone from 1.1 cm to 0.29 cm,achieving a 74%reduction in error.Further,the clinical data including the patients'operation results and devices provided values were consistent well with our predicated data,indicating the great potential of ACAPM to assist preoperative planning.展开更多
Shale gas serves as a significant strategic successor resource for future oil and gas reserves and production in China.Thus,a profound understanding of the adsorption mechanism of shale gas in shale reservoirs is cruc...Shale gas serves as a significant strategic successor resource for future oil and gas reserves and production in China.Thus,a profound understanding of the adsorption mechanism of shale gas in shale reservoirs is crucial to accurately predict and evaluate shale gas reserves.In this study,we utilized two simulation methods,molecular dynamics simulation and Giant Canonical Monte Carlo simulation to examine the adsorption characteristics of kerogen under varying temperature and pressure conditions.We compared the results under identical temperature and pressure conditions for different mineral-kerogen composite models.Moreover,we examined the effects of temperature,pressure,and mineral species on the kerogen adsorption mechanism.The results indicate that shale formations with high organic matter content and a substantial proportion of non-clay inorganic minerals,as well as those subjected to higher temperature and pressure conditions than the shallow layer,possess a greater capacity to accommodate shale gas.This study examined the adsorption mechanism of methane in shale gas using different mineral-kerogen composite models.The findings of this study provide more accurate guidance and support for efficient development of shale gas.展开更多
The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact...The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact on surface dust emission. In order to explore the main source areas of surface dust emission and quantify the impacts of human activities on surface dust emission, we investigated the surface dust emission of different land types on the Erenhot-Huailai zone by model simulation, field observation, and comparative analysis. The results showed that the average annual inhalable atmospheric particles(PM_(10)) dust emission fluxes in arid grassland, Hunshandake Sandy Land, semi-arid grassland,semi-arid agro-pastoral area, dry sub-humid agro-pastoral area, and semi-humid agro-pastoral area were 4.41, 0.71, 3.64, 1.94, 0.24, and 0.14 t/hm^(2), respectively, and dust emission in these lands occurred mainly from April to May. Due to the influence of human activities on surface dust emission, dust emission fluxes from different land types were 1.66–4.41 times greater than those of their background areas, and dust emission fluxes from the main dust source areas were 1.66–3.89 times greater than those of their background areas. According to calculation, the amount of PM_(10) dust emission influenced by human disturbance accounted for up to 58.00% of the total dust emission in the study area. In addition, the comparative analysis of model simulation and field observation results showed that the simulated and observed dust emission fluxes were relatively close to each other, with differences ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 t/hm^(2) in different months, which indicated that the community land model version 4.5(CLM4.5) had a high accuracy. In conclusion, model simulation results have important reference significance for identifying dust source areas and quantifying the contribution of human activities to surface dust emission.展开更多
Oilfields worldwide are increasingly grappling with challenges such as early water breakthrough and high water production,yet direct,targeted solutions remain elusive.In recent years,chemical flooding techniques desig...Oilfields worldwide are increasingly grappling with challenges such as early water breakthrough and high water production,yet direct,targeted solutions remain elusive.In recent years,chemical flooding techniques designed for tertiary oil recovery have garnered significant attention,with microgel flooding emerging as a particularly prominent area of research.Despite its promise,the complex mechanisms underlying microgel flooding have been rarely investigated numerically.This study aims to address these gaps by characterizing the distribution of microgel concentration and viscosity within different pore structures.To enhance the accuracy of these characterizations,the viscosity of microgels is adjusted to account for the shear effects induced by flow rate and the swelling effects driven by salinity variations.The absolute permeability of the rock and the relative permeability of both oil and microgel are also analyzed to elucidate the mechanisms of microgel flooding.Additionally,a connectivity model is employed to achieve a quantitative representation of fluid flow capacity.The proposed model is validated through conceptual examples and applied to real oilfield blocks,demonstrating its accuracy and practical applicability.展开更多
Model-based system-of-systems(SOS)engineering(MBSoSE)is becoming a promising solution for the design of SoS with increasing complexity.However,bridging the models from the design phase to the simulation phase poses si...Model-based system-of-systems(SOS)engineering(MBSoSE)is becoming a promising solution for the design of SoS with increasing complexity.However,bridging the models from the design phase to the simulation phase poses significant challenges and requires an integrated approach.In this study,a unified requirement modeling approach is proposed based on unified architecture framework(UAF).Theoretical models are proposed which compose formalized descriptions from both topdown and bottom-up perspectives.Based on the description,the UAF profile is proposed to represent the SoS mission and constituent systems(CS)goal.Moreover,the agent-based simulation information is also described based on the overview,design concepts,and details(ODD)protocol as the complement part of the SoS profile,which can be transformed into different simulation platforms based on the eXtensible markup language(XML)technology and model-to-text method.In this way,the design of the SoS is simulated automatically in the early design stage.Finally,the method is implemented and an example is given to illustrate the whole process.展开更多
We calculate the electrical and thermal conductivity of hydrogen for a wide range of densities and temperatures by using molecular dynamics simulations informed by density functional theory.On the basis of the corresp...We calculate the electrical and thermal conductivity of hydrogen for a wide range of densities and temperatures by using molecular dynamics simulations informed by density functional theory.On the basis of the corresponding extended ab initio data set,we construct interpolation formulas covering the range from low-density,high-temperature to high-density,low-temperature plasmas.Our conductivity model repro-duces the well-known limits of the Spitzer and Ziman theory.We compare with available experimental data andfind very good agreement.The new conductivity model can be applied,for example,in dynamo simulations for magneticfield generation in gas giant planets,brown dwarfs,and stellar envelopes.展开更多
The 2025 M_(w)7.7 Myanmar earthquake highlighted the challenge of near-fault seismic intensity field reconstruction due to sparse seismic networks.To address this limitation,a framework was proposed integrating seismi...The 2025 M_(w)7.7 Myanmar earthquake highlighted the challenge of near-fault seismic intensity field reconstruction due to sparse seismic networks.To address this limitation,a framework was proposed integrating seismic wave simulation with a data-constrained finite-fault rupture model.The constraint is implemented by identifying the optimal ground motion models(GMMs)through a scoring system that selects the best-fit GMMs to mid-and far-field China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)seismic network data;and applying the optimal GMMs to refine the rupture model parameters for near-fault intensity field simulation.The simulated near-fault seismic intensity field reproduces seismic intensities collected from Myanmar’s sparse seismic network and concentrated in≥Ⅷintensity zones within 50 km of the projected fault plane;and identifies abnormal intensity regions exhibiting≥Ⅹintensity along the Meiktila-Naypyidaw corridor and near Shwebo that are attributed to soft soil amplification effects and near-fault directivity.This framework can also be applied to post-earthquake assessments in other similar regions.展开更多
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang...Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.展开更多
To address the limitations of existing coupling methods in aero-engine system simulation,which fail to adaptively adjust iterative parameters and coupling relationships,which can result in low efficiency and in⁃stabil...To address the limitations of existing coupling methods in aero-engine system simulation,which fail to adaptively adjust iterative parameters and coupling relationships,which can result in low efficiency and in⁃stability,this study introduces a‘Dynamic Event-Driven Co-Simulation’algorithm integrated with decision tree algorithms.This algorithm separates the overall coupling relationships and the main solver from the primary mod⁃el,utilizing a dynamic event monitoring module to adaptively adjust simulation strategies,including iteration pa⁃rameters,coupling relationships,and convergence criteria.This facilitates efficient adaptive simulations of dy⁃namic events while balancing solution accuracy and computational efficiency.The research focuses on a twinshaft turbofan engine,establishing six system-level models that encompass overall performance and various sub⁃systems based on three coupling methods,along with a multidisciplinary multi-fidelity simulation framework in⁃corporating a 3D CFD nozzle model.The study tests both model exchange and coupled simulation methods under a 14 s transient acceleration and deceleration scenario.In a 100%throttle condition,a high-fidelity nozzle model is used to analyze the sensitivity of different convergence criteria on computational efficiency and accuracy.Re⁃sults indicate that the accuracy and efficiency achieved with this method are comparable to those of PROOSIS soft⁃ware(18 s and 35 s,respectively),while being 71%more efficient than Simulink software(62 s and 120 s,re⁃spectively).Furthermore,appropriately relaxing the convergence criteria for the 0D model(from 10-6 to 10-4)while enhancing those for the 3D model(from 3000 steps to 6000 steps)can effectively balance computational accuracy and efficiency.展开更多
Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate b...Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.展开更多
The modern aircraft Thermal Management System(TMS)faces significant challenges due to increasing thermal loads and limited heat dissipation pathways.To optimize TMS during the conceptual design stage,the development o...The modern aircraft Thermal Management System(TMS)faces significant challenges due to increasing thermal loads and limited heat dissipation pathways.To optimize TMS during the conceptual design stage,the development of a modeling and simulation tool is crucial.In this study,a TMS simulation model library was created using MATLAB/SIMULINK.To simplify the complexity of the Vapor Cycle System(VCS)model,a Response Surface Model(RSM)was constructed using the Monte Carlo method and validated through simulation experiments.Taking the F-22 fighter TMS as an example,a thermal dynamic simulation model was constructed to analyze the variation of thermal response parameters in key subsystems and elucidate their coupling relationships.Furthermore,the impact of total fuel flow and ram air flow on the TMS was investigated.The findings demonstrate the existence of an optimal total fuel flow that achieves a balance between maximizing fuel heat sink utilization and minimizing bleed air demand.The adaptive distribution of fuel and ram air flow was found to enhance aircraft thermal management performance.This study contributes to improving modeling efficiency and enhancing the understanding of the thermal dynamic characteristics of TMS,thereby facilitating further optimization in aircraft TMS design.展开更多
Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and t...Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.展开更多
Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to i...Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.展开更多
Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models...Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models than most existing tools.In this study,we describe one major and unified application module of Blib,i.e.,ISB(abbreviated from in silico breeding),for simulating the three categories of breeding programs for developing clonal,pure-line and hybrid cultivars in plants.Genetic models on environments and breeding-targeted traits,one or several parental populations,and a number of breeding methods are key elements to run simulation experiments in ISB,which are arranged in three external input files by given formats.Applications of ISB are illustrated by three case studies,representing the three categories of plant breeding programs.Under the condition that 5000 F1 progenies were generated and tested from 50 heterozygous parents,Case study I showed that 50 crosses,each of 100 progenies,made the best balance between genetic achievement and field cost.In Case study II,one optimum breeding method was identified by which the pure lines with high yield and medium maturity could be developed.Case study III investigated the genetic consequence in hybrid breeding from five testers.One tester was identified for the simultaneous improvement in F1 hybrids and inbred lines.In summary,ISB identified a balanced crossing scheme,an optimum pure-line selection method,and an optimized tester in three case studies which are relevant to plant breeding.We believe the prediction by simulation would be highly required in front of the next generation of breeding to be driven by informatics and intelligence.展开更多
基金the National Key BasicResearch and Development Project of China under GrantNo. 2004CB418301the National Natural Sciences Foun-dation of China under Grant No. 40775031"Outstand-ing Oversea Scholars" Project No.2005-2-16.
文摘Impacts of initial conditions on cloud-resolving model simulations are investigated using a series of sensitivity experiments. Five experiments with perturbed initial temperature, moisture, and cloud conditions are conducted and compared to the control experiment. The model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind observed and derived from NCEP/Global Data Assimilation System （GDAS）. The results indicate that model predictions of rainfall are much more sensitive to the initial conditions than those of temperature and moisture. Further analyses of the surface rainfall equation and the moisture and cloud hydrometeor budgets reveal that the calculations of vapor condensation and deposition rates in the model account for the large sensitivities in rainfall simulations.
基金supported by the Special Fund of the Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration(Nos.DQJB23R28 and DQJB22K40)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42304078,U1839210 and 42104043).
文摘Various velocity models have been built for Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau with the purpose of revealing the internal dynamics and estimating local seismic hazards.In this study,we use a 3-D full-waveform modeling package to systematically validate three published continental-scale velocity models,that is,Shen2016,FWEA18,and USTClitho1.0,leveraging the ample datasets in Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau region.Travel time residuals and waveform similarities are measured between observed empirical Green’s functions and synthetic waveforms.The results show that the Shen2016 model,derived from traditional surface wave tomography,performs best in fitting Rayleigh waves in the Southeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,followed by FWEA18,built from full-waveform inversion of long-period body and surface waves.The USTClitho1.0 model,although inverted from body wave datasets,is comparable with FWEA18 in fitting Rayleigh waves.The results also show that all the models are faster than the ground-truth model and show relatively large travel-time residuals and poor waveform similarities at shorter period bands,possibly caused by small-scale structural heterogeneities in the shallower crust.We further invert the time residuals for spatial velocity residuals and reveal that all three models underestimate the amplitudes of high-and low-velocity anomalies.The underestimated amplitude is up to 4%,which is non-negligible considering that the overall amplitude of anomalies is only 5%−10%in the crust.These results suggest that datasets and the inversion method are both essential to building accurate models and further refinements of these models are necessary.
文摘The global rise in energy demand, particularly in remote and sparsely populated regions, necessitates innovative and cost-effective electrical distribution solutions. Traditional Rural Electrification (RE) methods, like Conventional Rural Electrification (CRE), have proven economically unfeasible in such areas due to high infrastructure costs and low electricity demand. Consequently, Unconventional Rural Electrification (URE) technologies, such as Capacitor Coupled Substations (CCS), are gaining attention as viable alternatives. This study presents the design and simulation of an 80 kW CCS system, which taps power directly from a 132 kV transmission line to supply low-voltage consumers. The critical components of the CCS, the capacitors are calculated, then a MATLAB/Simulink model with the attained results is executed. Mathematical representation and state-space representation for maintaining the desired tapped voltage area also developed. The research further explores the feasibility and operational performance of this CCS configuration, aiming to address the challenges of rural electrification by offering a sustainable and scalable solution. The results show that the desired value of the tapped voltage can be achieved at any level of High Voltage (HV) with the selection of capacitors that are correctly rated. With an adequately designed control strategy, the research also shows that tapped voltage can be attained under both steady-state and dynamic loads. By leveraging CCS technology, the study demonstrates the potential for delivering reliable electricity to underserved areas, highlighting the system’s practicality and effectiveness in overcoming the limitations of conventional distribution methods.
基金supported by the Zhejiang Provincial Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2020C01020).
文摘The nozzle is a critical component responsible for generating most of the net thrust in a scramjet engine.The quality of its design directly affects the performance of the entire propulsion system.However,most turbulence models struggle to make accurate predictions for subsonic and supersonic flows in nozzles.In this study,we explored a novel model,the algebraic stress model k-kL-ARSM+J,to enhance the accuracy of turbulence numerical simulations.This new model was used to conduct numerical simulations of the design and off-design performance of a 3D supersonic asymmetric truncated nozzle designed in our laboratory,with the aim of providing a realistic pattern of changes.The research indicates that,compared to linear eddy viscosity turbulence models such as k-kL and shear stress transport(SST),the k-kL-ARSM+J algebraic stress model shows better accuracy in predicting the performance of supersonic nozzles.Its predictions were identical to the experimental values,enabling precise calculations of the nozzle.The performance trends of the nozzle are as follows:as the inlet Mach number increases,both thrust and pitching moment increase,but the rate of increase slows down.Lift peaks near the design Mach number and then rapidly decreases.With increasing inlet pressure,the nozzle thrust,lift,and pitching moment all show linear growth.As the flight altitude rises,the internal flow field within the nozzle remains relatively consistent due to the same supersonic nozzle inlet flow conditions.However,external to the nozzle,the change in external flow pressure results in the nozzle exit transitioning from over-expanded to under-expanded,leading to a shear layer behind the nozzle that initially converges towards the nozzle center and then diverges.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42475016,42192555 and 42305085)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M741615)the 2023 Graduate Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province(Grant No.CX20230011)。
文摘This paper investigates the impact of the model top and damping layer on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones(TCs)and reveals the significant role of stratospheric gravity waves(SGWs).TCs can generate SGWs,which propagate upward and outward into the stratosphere.These SGWs can reach the damping layer,which is a consequence of the numerical scheme employed,where they can affect the tangential circulation through the dragging and forcing processes.In models with a higher top boundary,this tangential circulation develops far from the TC and has minimal direct impact on TC intensity.By comparison,in models with a lower top(e.g.,20 km),the damping layer is located just above the top of the TC.The SGW dragging in the damping layer and the consequent tangential force can thus induce ascent outside the eyewall,promote latent heat release,tilt the eyewall,and enlarge the inner-core radius.This process will reduce inner-core vorticity advection within the boundary layer,and eventually inhibits the intensification of the TC.This suggests that when the thickness of the damping layer is 5 km,the TC numerical model top height should be at least higher than 20 km to generate more accurate simulations.
基金Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Academy of Engineering Physics and Jointly Setup"NSAF"Joint Fund(No.U1430119)。
文摘The multi-scale modeling combined with the cohesive zone model(CZM)and the molecular dynamics(MD)method were preformed to simulate the crack propagation in NiTi shape memory alloys(SMAs).The metallographic microscope and image processing technology were employed to achieve a quantitative grain size distribution of NiTi alloys so as to provide experimental data for molecular dynamics modeling at the atomic scale.Considering the size effect of molecular dynamics model on material properties,a reasonable modeling size was provided by taking into account three characteristic dimensions from the perspective of macro,meso,and micro scales according to the Buckinghamπtheorem.Then,the corresponding MD simulation on deformation and fracture behavior was investigated to derive a parameterized traction-separation(T-S)law,and then it was embedded into cohesive elements of finite element software.Thus,the crack propagation behavior in NiTi alloys was reproduced by the finite element method(FEM).The experimental results show that the predicted initiation fracture toughness is in good agreement with experimental data.In addition,it is found that the dynamics initiation fracture toughness increases with decreasing grain size and increasing loading velocity.
基金supported by the National Major Scientific Instruments and Equipment Development Project Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(81827803)the Jiangsu Province Key Research and Development Program(Social Development)Project(BE2020705).
文摘Purpose:The major limitation of tumor microwave ablation(MWA)operation is the lack of predictability of the ablation zone before surgery.Operators rely on their individual experience to select a treatment plan,which is prone to either inadequate or excessive ablation.This paper aims to establish an ablation prediction model that guides MWA tumor surgical planning.Methods:An MWA process was first simulated by incorporating electromagnetic radiation equations,thermal equations,and optimized biological tissue parameters(dynamic dielectric and thermophysical parameters).The temperature distributions(the short/long diameters,and the total volume of the ablation zone)were then generated and verified by 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments.Subsequently,a series of data were obtained from the simulated temperature distributions and to further fit the novel ablation coagulated area prediction model(ACAPM),thus rendering the ablation-dose table for the guiding surgical plan.The MWA clinical patient data and clinical devices suggested data were used to validate the accuracy and practicability of the established predicted model.Results:The 60 cases ex vivo porcine liver experiments demonstrated the accuracy of the simulated temperature distributions.Compared to traditional simulation methods,our approach reduces the long-diameter error of the ablation zone from 1.1 cm to 0.29 cm,achieving a 74%reduction in error.Further,the clinical data including the patients'operation results and devices provided values were consistent well with our predicated data,indicating the great potential of ACAPM to assist preoperative planning.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42102145)the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(Grant No.2462022YXZZ007)。
文摘Shale gas serves as a significant strategic successor resource for future oil and gas reserves and production in China.Thus,a profound understanding of the adsorption mechanism of shale gas in shale reservoirs is crucial to accurately predict and evaluate shale gas reserves.In this study,we utilized two simulation methods,molecular dynamics simulation and Giant Canonical Monte Carlo simulation to examine the adsorption characteristics of kerogen under varying temperature and pressure conditions.We compared the results under identical temperature and pressure conditions for different mineral-kerogen composite models.Moreover,we examined the effects of temperature,pressure,and mineral species on the kerogen adsorption mechanism.The results indicate that shale formations with high organic matter content and a substantial proportion of non-clay inorganic minerals,as well as those subjected to higher temperature and pressure conditions than the shallow layer,possess a greater capacity to accommodate shale gas.This study examined the adsorption mechanism of methane in shale gas using different mineral-kerogen composite models.The findings of this study provide more accurate guidance and support for efficient development of shale gas.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2016YFA0601901)Basic Scientific Research of Henan Academy of Sciences (240601083)Joint Fund of Henan Province Science and Technology Research and Development Program (225200810047)。
文摘The Erenhot-Huailai zone, as an important dust emission source area in northern China, affects the air quality of Beijing City, Tianjin City, and Hebei Province and human activities in this zone have a profound impact on surface dust emission. In order to explore the main source areas of surface dust emission and quantify the impacts of human activities on surface dust emission, we investigated the surface dust emission of different land types on the Erenhot-Huailai zone by model simulation, field observation, and comparative analysis. The results showed that the average annual inhalable atmospheric particles(PM_(10)) dust emission fluxes in arid grassland, Hunshandake Sandy Land, semi-arid grassland,semi-arid agro-pastoral area, dry sub-humid agro-pastoral area, and semi-humid agro-pastoral area were 4.41, 0.71, 3.64, 1.94, 0.24, and 0.14 t/hm^(2), respectively, and dust emission in these lands occurred mainly from April to May. Due to the influence of human activities on surface dust emission, dust emission fluxes from different land types were 1.66–4.41 times greater than those of their background areas, and dust emission fluxes from the main dust source areas were 1.66–3.89 times greater than those of their background areas. According to calculation, the amount of PM_(10) dust emission influenced by human disturbance accounted for up to 58.00% of the total dust emission in the study area. In addition, the comparative analysis of model simulation and field observation results showed that the simulated and observed dust emission fluxes were relatively close to each other, with differences ranging from 0.01 to 0.21 t/hm^(2) in different months, which indicated that the community land model version 4.5(CLM4.5) had a high accuracy. In conclusion, model simulation results have important reference significance for identifying dust source areas and quantifying the contribution of human activities to surface dust emission.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation project“Micro-Scale Effect of Oil-Gas Flow and the Mechanism of Enhancing Shale Oil Recovery by Natural Gas Injection”(No.52074317)。
文摘Oilfields worldwide are increasingly grappling with challenges such as early water breakthrough and high water production,yet direct,targeted solutions remain elusive.In recent years,chemical flooding techniques designed for tertiary oil recovery have garnered significant attention,with microgel flooding emerging as a particularly prominent area of research.Despite its promise,the complex mechanisms underlying microgel flooding have been rarely investigated numerically.This study aims to address these gaps by characterizing the distribution of microgel concentration and viscosity within different pore structures.To enhance the accuracy of these characterizations,the viscosity of microgels is adjusted to account for the shear effects induced by flow rate and the swelling effects driven by salinity variations.The absolute permeability of the rock and the relative permeability of both oil and microgel are also analyzed to elucidate the mechanisms of microgel flooding.Additionally,a connectivity model is employed to achieve a quantitative representation of fluid flow capacity.The proposed model is validated through conceptual examples and applied to real oilfield blocks,demonstrating its accuracy and practical applicability.
基金Fifth Electronic Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology(HK07202200877)Pre-research Project on Civil Aerospace Technologies of CNSA(D020101)+2 种基金Zhejiang Provincial Science and Technology Plan Project(2022C01052)Frontier Scientific Research Program of Deep Space Exploration Laboratory(2022-QYKYJHHXYF-018,2022-QYKYJH-GCXD-001)Zhiyuan Laboratory(ZYL2024001)。
文摘Model-based system-of-systems(SOS)engineering(MBSoSE)is becoming a promising solution for the design of SoS with increasing complexity.However,bridging the models from the design phase to the simulation phase poses significant challenges and requires an integrated approach.In this study,a unified requirement modeling approach is proposed based on unified architecture framework(UAF).Theoretical models are proposed which compose formalized descriptions from both topdown and bottom-up perspectives.Based on the description,the UAF profile is proposed to represent the SoS mission and constituent systems(CS)goal.Moreover,the agent-based simulation information is also described based on the overview,design concepts,and details(ODD)protocol as the complement part of the SoS profile,which can be transformed into different simulation platforms based on the eXtensible markup language(XML)technology and model-to-text method.In this way,the design of the SoS is simulated automatically in the early design stage.Finally,the method is implemented and an example is given to illustrate the whole process.
基金supported by the Priority Program SPP 1992 of the German Science Foundation(DFG)The Diversity of Exoplanets under project number 362460292.
文摘We calculate the electrical and thermal conductivity of hydrogen for a wide range of densities and temperatures by using molecular dynamics simulations informed by density functional theory.On the basis of the corresponding extended ab initio data set,we construct interpolation formulas covering the range from low-density,high-temperature to high-density,low-temperature plasmas.Our conductivity model repro-duces the well-known limits of the Spitzer and Ziman theory.We compare with available experimental data andfind very good agreement.The new conductivity model can be applied,for example,in dynamo simulations for magneticfield generation in gas giant planets,brown dwarfs,and stellar envelopes.
基金Scientific Research Fund of Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration under Grant No.2023C01National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.52478570Distinguished Young Scholars Program of the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province,China under Grant No.JQ2024E002。
文摘The 2025 M_(w)7.7 Myanmar earthquake highlighted the challenge of near-fault seismic intensity field reconstruction due to sparse seismic networks.To address this limitation,a framework was proposed integrating seismic wave simulation with a data-constrained finite-fault rupture model.The constraint is implemented by identifying the optimal ground motion models(GMMs)through a scoring system that selects the best-fit GMMs to mid-and far-field China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)seismic network data;and applying the optimal GMMs to refine the rupture model parameters for near-fault intensity field simulation.The simulated near-fault seismic intensity field reproduces seismic intensities collected from Myanmar’s sparse seismic network and concentrated in≥Ⅷintensity zones within 50 km of the projected fault plane;and identifies abnormal intensity regions exhibiting≥Ⅹintensity along the Meiktila-Naypyidaw corridor and near Shwebo that are attributed to soft soil amplification effects and near-fault directivity.This framework can also be applied to post-earthquake assessments in other similar regions.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42176221,41901133)Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19060205)Seed project of Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.YIC-E3518907)。
文摘Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions.
文摘To address the limitations of existing coupling methods in aero-engine system simulation,which fail to adaptively adjust iterative parameters and coupling relationships,which can result in low efficiency and in⁃stability,this study introduces a‘Dynamic Event-Driven Co-Simulation’algorithm integrated with decision tree algorithms.This algorithm separates the overall coupling relationships and the main solver from the primary mod⁃el,utilizing a dynamic event monitoring module to adaptively adjust simulation strategies,including iteration pa⁃rameters,coupling relationships,and convergence criteria.This facilitates efficient adaptive simulations of dy⁃namic events while balancing solution accuracy and computational efficiency.The research focuses on a twinshaft turbofan engine,establishing six system-level models that encompass overall performance and various sub⁃systems based on three coupling methods,along with a multidisciplinary multi-fidelity simulation framework in⁃corporating a 3D CFD nozzle model.The study tests both model exchange and coupled simulation methods under a 14 s transient acceleration and deceleration scenario.In a 100%throttle condition,a high-fidelity nozzle model is used to analyze the sensitivity of different convergence criteria on computational efficiency and accuracy.Re⁃sults indicate that the accuracy and efficiency achieved with this method are comparable to those of PROOSIS soft⁃ware(18 s and 35 s,respectively),while being 71%more efficient than Simulink software(62 s and 120 s,re⁃spectively).Furthermore,appropriately relaxing the convergence criteria for the 0D model(from 10-6 to 10-4)while enhancing those for the 3D model(from 3000 steps to 6000 steps)can effectively balance computational accuracy and efficiency.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52109010)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2021M701047)the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant No.BX20200113).
文摘Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.
文摘The modern aircraft Thermal Management System(TMS)faces significant challenges due to increasing thermal loads and limited heat dissipation pathways.To optimize TMS during the conceptual design stage,the development of a modeling and simulation tool is crucial.In this study,a TMS simulation model library was created using MATLAB/SIMULINK.To simplify the complexity of the Vapor Cycle System(VCS)model,a Response Surface Model(RSM)was constructed using the Monte Carlo method and validated through simulation experiments.Taking the F-22 fighter TMS as an example,a thermal dynamic simulation model was constructed to analyze the variation of thermal response parameters in key subsystems and elucidate their coupling relationships.Furthermore,the impact of total fuel flow and ram air flow on the TMS was investigated.The findings demonstrate the existence of an optimal total fuel flow that achieves a balance between maximizing fuel heat sink utilization and minimizing bleed air demand.The adaptive distribution of fuel and ram air flow was found to enhance aircraft thermal management performance.This study contributes to improving modeling efficiency and enhancing the understanding of the thermal dynamic characteristics of TMS,thereby facilitating further optimization in aircraft TMS design.
基金supported by the Science Fund for the Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project(22JR5RA339).
文摘Land use/cover change(LUCC)constitutes the spatial and temporal patterns of ecological security,and the construction of ecological networks is an effective way to ensure ecological security.Exploring the spatial and temporal change characteristics of ecological network and analyzing the integrated relationship between LUCC and ecological security are crucial for ensuring regional ecological security.Gansu is one of the provinces with fragile ecological environment in China,and rapid changes in land use patterns in recent decades have threatened ecological security.Therefore,taking Gansu Province as the study area,this study simulated its land use pattern in 2050 using patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model based on the LUCC trend from 2000 to 2020 and integrated the LUCC into morphological spatial pattern analysis(MSPA)to identify ecological sources and extract the ecological corridors to construct ecological network using circuit theory.The results revealed that,according to the prediction results in 2050,the areas of cultivated land,forest land,grassland,water body,construction land,and unused land would be 63,447.52,39,510.80,148,115.18,4605.21,8368.89,and 161,752.40 km^(2),respectively.The number of ecological sources in Gansu Province would increase to 80,with a total area of 99,927.18 km^(2).The number of ecological corridors would increase to 191,with an estimated total length of 6120.66 km.Both ecological sources and ecological corridors showed a sparse distribution in the northwest and dense distribution in the southeast of the province at the spatial scale.The number of ecological pinch points would reach 312 and the total area would expect to increase to 842.84 km^(2),with the most pronounced increase in the Longdong region.Compared with 2020,the number and area of ecological barriers in 2050 would decrease significantly by 63 and 370.71 km^(2),respectively.In general,based on the prediction results,the connectivity of ecological network of Gansu Province would increase in 2050.To achieve the predicted ecological network in 2050,emphasis should be placed on the protection of cultivated land and ecological land,the establishment of ecological sources in desert areas,the reinforcement of the protection for existing ecological sources,and the construction of ecological corridors to enhance the stability of ecological network.This study provides valuable theoretical support and references for the future construction of ecological networks and regional land resource management decision-making.
基金supported by the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Foundation(2022ECK004)Shanghai Soft Science Research Project(23692123400)。
文摘Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies.
基金supported by Biological Breeding-National Science and Technology Major Project(2023ZD0407501)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31861143003)Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
文摘Computer simulation permits answering theoretical and applied questions in animal and plant breeding.Blib is a novel multi-module simulation platform,which is able to handle more complicated genetic effects and models than most existing tools.In this study,we describe one major and unified application module of Blib,i.e.,ISB(abbreviated from in silico breeding),for simulating the three categories of breeding programs for developing clonal,pure-line and hybrid cultivars in plants.Genetic models on environments and breeding-targeted traits,one or several parental populations,and a number of breeding methods are key elements to run simulation experiments in ISB,which are arranged in three external input files by given formats.Applications of ISB are illustrated by three case studies,representing the three categories of plant breeding programs.Under the condition that 5000 F1 progenies were generated and tested from 50 heterozygous parents,Case study I showed that 50 crosses,each of 100 progenies,made the best balance between genetic achievement and field cost.In Case study II,one optimum breeding method was identified by which the pure lines with high yield and medium maturity could be developed.Case study III investigated the genetic consequence in hybrid breeding from five testers.One tester was identified for the simultaneous improvement in F1 hybrids and inbred lines.In summary,ISB identified a balanced crossing scheme,an optimum pure-line selection method,and an optimized tester in three case studies which are relevant to plant breeding.We believe the prediction by simulation would be highly required in front of the next generation of breeding to be driven by informatics and intelligence.
