Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other h...Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.展开更多
Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic su...Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic susceptibility and grain size, we inferred that the northwestern margin of East Asian monsoon region experienced abrupt climatic changes during the last deglaciation. Six oscillation events were identified: Oldest Dryas, Bolling, Older Dryas, Allerod, Intra-Allerod Cold Period (IACP) and Younger Dryas (YD). The summer monsoon was weaker during Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas when the winter monsoon was stronger. However, during the B/A (Bolling/Allerod) period, the summer monsoon strengthened, reflected by magnetic susceptibility, when the winter monsoon also became strong, which is different from the paleoclimatic pattern established in the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, the summer monsoon was nearly in phase with the climate changes inferred from the oxygen isotopic records of Greenland ice cores. It could be speculated that the variations of the sea ice cover in the high latitudes of the North Hemisphere affected the high pressure of Asian continent and the changes of the winter monsoon inland. On the other hand, the sea ice cover variations might have indirectly caused the occurrence of ENSO events that has tightly been related to the summer monsoon in northwest margin of East Asian monsoon region.展开更多
The opening and many years of research of magnetic spinor particles (real magnetic charges) in atoms and substance have enabled the author to formulate the conception of the Physical Triad, according which the real Wo...The opening and many years of research of magnetic spinor particles (real magnetic charges) in atoms and substance have enabled the author to formulate the conception of the Physical Triad, according which the real World consists of three fundamental phases: Matter, Antimatter and Energo-phase (Energo-medium). Particles of Matter are called spinors and particles of Antimatter are called antispinors. Energo-medium is a gasiform phase of high density that fills by himself all the infinite space of the real World. It consists of spinless and massless particles-energions. Spinor fields can be both flows energions (fields of Matter), so and anti-flow energions (fields of Antimatter). Atomic-shaped structures consisting of electric and magnetic spinor particles represent a Physical Mass (atoms, nucleons, etc.). The main characteristic of all varieties of Mass is its ability radiate gravitational field, which is a vortex electromagnetic field. All spinor particles are massless so as individually generate a gravitational field they can’t. All primary forces in the real World are implemented by means of Energo-medium, i.e. contact pressure its particles—energions. The spinor fields, including the gravitational field, myself the real of the power significance, have not. They are only intermediaries, inducing in Energo-medium its active (power) education, which is called “Dark Energy”. “Dark Energy” can be both positive, so and negative. Namely, a positive “Dark Energy”, which is associated with the technical activity of man, is responsible for stable climatic changes on Earth. Greenhouse gases are not the main “culprit” of climatic changes on our planet. However, these gases are the simplest indicator of the overall level of irreversible physical processes that stimulate the growth of the positive “Dark Energy” and are responsible for the negative thermal scenario on Earth.展开更多
Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated resul...Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.展开更多
Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood dis...Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4 o N-4 o S and 150 o W-90 o W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent.展开更多
Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorhe...Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km2 in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has signif- icantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacie^lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions （decreased precipitation and increased temperatures） that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976-1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995-2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.展开更多
Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet...Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet analysis. The research results indicate that January precipitation presents an increasing trend after 1990, wavelet analysis result suggests that this increasing trend will continue in the near future. The changes of July precipitation present different features. During 1900-1960, July precipitation is in a rising trend, but is in a declining trend after 1960. Wavelet analysis shows that this declining trend will go on in the near future. Temperature variations in Shanghai are in fluctuations with 2 to 3 temperature rising periods. Mann-Kendall analysis indicates that temperature variations have the obvious abrupt change time when compared with precipitation changes in Shanghai during the past 100 years. The abrupt change time of January temperature lies in 1985, and that of July temperature lies in 1931-1933 and annual mean temperature has the abrupt change time in 1923-1930. Except July precipitation, the precipitation in January, temperature in January, July and annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are also in a rising trend in the near future. The research results in this paper may be meaningful for future further climatic changes of Shanghai and social mitigation of climatic disasters in the future.展开更多
Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cro...Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.展开更多
Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associated with erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuable information for us to unde...Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associated with erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuable information for us to understand the relations of soil erosion to environmental change and anthropogenic activity. The present paper has compared Holocene climatic changes in northwestern China with those in southern Norway, and investigated the past dynamics of erosion activity during the Holocene. Modern soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is a combination of the intensive natural erosion and human-induced erosion, the latter being four times greater than the former. Because of global warming and increasing human activities, climate on the Loess Plateau is becoming dryer and more unstable, causing an enhanced erosion problem and water scarcity. In the arctic-alpine region of southern Norway, however, the global warming and regional wetting caused expansion of the largest European ice cap. This has accentuated the erosion in that region, with a higher frequency of avalanches and debris flows.展开更多
The large-scale summer monsoon circulations of south Asia makes a strong impact on precipitation in the area of southwestern China including Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Yun-Gui Plateau.however,the monsoon is both spat...The large-scale summer monsoon circulations of south Asia makes a strong impact on precipitation in the area of southwestern China including Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Yun-Gui Plateau.however,the monsoon is both spatially and temporally complex and smaller-scale circulations are forced by a variety of local or regional orographic effects,local or regional land-atmosphere or展开更多
The acronym C6 means ＂Climatic Changes and Carbon Cycle in Canyons and Caves＂. It is a monitoring project, for the evaluation of climate change signals, based on measuring sites located inside canyons and caves; it ...The acronym C6 means ＂Climatic Changes and Carbon Cycle in Canyons and Caves＂. It is a monitoring project, for the evaluation of climate change signals, based on measuring sites located inside canyons and caves; it merged in the year 2005, under the scientific supervision of the Palermo Branch of the Italian National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology （INGV）, two different monitoring programs active since 1999. The choice of these environments is based on their morphological structure： being them more or less segregated respect the outer atmosphere, they act as low-pass filters respect the variations of the monitored parameters, which are rainfall and dropping water amounts and rates, air temperatures and relative humidity and carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. On the basis of the preliminary data, reported and discussed in the paper, the C6 network seems to be capable to give useful information on the local effects of global changes, even if at the moment the monitored parameters concern only the abiotic components of the studied ecosystems.展开更多
Climatic changes and their impact are increasingly evident in Pakistan,especially in the mountainous regions. Mountain ecosystems are consideredto be sensitive indicators of global warming;even slight variationsin tem...Climatic changes and their impact are increasingly evident in Pakistan,especially in the mountainous regions. Mountain ecosystems are consideredto be sensitive indicators of global warming;even slight variationsin temperature can lead to significant shifts in local climate, which can,in turn, drastically affect the natural environment, subsequently alteringpeople’s lifestyle and wildlife habitats. The targeted area for the presentresearch was Lower Dir District, Pakistan. The study gathered the requiredinformation from primary and secondary sources. Secondary dataon temperature and precipitation were obtained from various sources,i.e., local CBO, including WWF Pakistan. Based on information gatheredon climate change and wildlife, a detailed questionnaire was designed.Results showed that no regular pattern of the increase was found in temperaturefrom 2010 to 2018;the same was noticed in the rainfall decreasepattern. Results also showed that the leading causes behind climaticchanges are an increase in greenhouse gases due to pollution by industries,vehicles, crushing plants, deforestation, and some natural phenomenasuch as floods. The study showed that more than 80% of the respondentsagreed that climatic effects have a significant impact on wildlife, i.e.,the existence of wildlife falls in danger due to climatic changes as it maylead to habitat change, making it difficult for the survival and adaptationof the wildlife. Hence, in consequence, it leads to migration, low growthrate, an increase in morbidity and mortality rate, and finally leading to theextinction of the species or population. It is concluded from the study thatpeople are severely noticing the climatic change and its leading causesare greenhouse gases and deforestation. To control climatic changes andwildlife extinction, we need an appropriate policy for forest conservation,wildlife conservation, prevent hunting, industrial pollution control, vehiclepollution control, increase in plantation, awareness of policy for thecontrol of climatic changes, etc.展开更多
Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological dat...Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.展开更多
Conversion of dryland to paddy fields(CDPF)is an effective way to transition from rain-fed to irrigated agricul ture,helping to mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and increase yields to meet growing...Conversion of dryland to paddy fields(CDPF)is an effective way to transition from rain-fed to irrigated agricul ture,helping to mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and increase yields to meet growing food demand.However,the suitability of CDPF is spatio-temporally dynamic but has often been neglected in previous studies.To fill this knowledge gap,this research developed a novel method for quantifying the suitability of CDPF,based on the MaxEnt model for application in Northeast China.We explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of the suitability of CDPF under the baseline scenario(2010-2020),and future projections(2030-2090)coupled with climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585),and revealed the driving factors behind it.Based on this,we identified potential priority areas for future CDPF implementation.The results show that the suitability of CDPF projects implemented in the past ten years is relatively high.Com pared with the baseline scenario,the suitability of CDPF under the future scenarios will decline overall,with the lightest decrease in the RCP585 and the most severe decrease in the RCP245.The key drivers affecting the suitability of CDPF are elevation,slope,population count,total nitrogen,soil organic carbon content,and precip itation seasonality.The potential priority areas for the future CDPF range from 6,284.61 km^(2)to 37,006.02 km^(2).These findings demonstrate the challenges of CDPF in adapting to climate change and food security,and provide insights for food-producing regions around the world facing climate crises.展开更多
Protecting rare,endemic,and endangered species requires careful habitat evaluation to set strategic plans for mitigating biodiversity loss and prioritizing conservation goals.The endangered Asian elephant(Elephas maxi...Protecting rare,endemic,and endangered species requires careful habitat evaluation to set strategic plans for mitigating biodiversity loss and prioritizing conservation goals.The endangered Asian elephant(Elephas maximus)exemplifies the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts,given its challenging habitat conditions.This study examines the impact of climate and land use changes on the suitable habitat distribution of Asian elephants.Utilizing ten predictor variables,including climatic,topographic,and land use data,and employing six ensemble Species Distribution Models(SDMs)alongside Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data,the study estimates spatial changes and potential habitat expansions for Asian elephants across Tropical Asia.Occurrence data were gathered from field surveys in Bangladesh and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database for Sri Lanka,Myanmar,Bhutan,Cambodia,India,Laos,Nepal,Thailand,and Vietnam.To evaluate habitat suitability,the analysis considered two distinct socioeconomic pathways(SSP 245 and SSP 370)across two future periods(2041–2060 and 2061–2080).Results reveal a strong correlation between isothermality and habitat suitability,with higher isothermality enhancing the habitat conditions for Asian elephants.Among the SDMs,the random forest model demonstrated the highest performance.Projected scenarios indicate significant habitat fragmentation by 2061–2080,heightening the risk of species’vulnerability.Specifically,in SSP 245,the north zone is anticipated to experience a higher rate of habitat loss(588.443 km^(2)/year),whereas,in SSP 370,the west zone is expected to face a more severe rate of habitat loss(1,798.56 km^(2)/year).The eastern zone,which includes Cambodia,Vietnam,Laos,Thailand,and southern Myanmar,is notably at risk,with an estimated habitat loss of 14.8 million hectares.Anticipated changes in climate and land cover will impact the availability of essential resources such as food,water,and shelter,potentially driving the species to relocate to different elevation belts.The outcomes of the consensus map highlighting critical habitats and future fragmentation scenarios will support effective conservation and management strategies for the species.展开更多
There is growing interest in introducing ecological risks(ERs)and ecosystem services(ESs)into environmental policies and practices.However,the integration of ESs and ERs into actual decision-making remains insufficien...There is growing interest in introducing ecological risks(ERs)and ecosystem services(ESs)into environmental policies and practices.However,the integration of ESs and ERs into actual decision-making remains insufficient.We simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs(e.g.,carbon storage,water yield,habitat quality,and soil conservation)and ERs in the upper reach of the Yellow River(URYR)from 2000 to 2100.Additionally,we explored their relationships by combining the InVEST model and a landscape ecological risk model with CMIP6 data.Our main findings showed that regional ERs change in response to land use and environmental dynamics.Specifically,the ER area decreased by 27,673 m^(2)during 2000-2020,but it is projected to increase by 13,273,438,and 68 m^(2)under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.We also observed remarkable spatial differences in ESs and ERs between past and future scenarios.For instance,the source area of the URYR exhibited high ESs and low ERs(P<0.001),while the ESs and ERs are declining and increasing,respectively,in the northeastern URYR(P<0.05).Finally,we proposed a spatial optimization framework to improve ESs and reduce ERs,which will support regional sustainable development.展开更多
Groundwater is the major source of fresh water,and it performs a crucial role in maintaining ecosystems and adapting humans to climate variation.Due to excessive reliance on groundwater in some regions,the amount of g...Groundwater is the major source of fresh water,and it performs a crucial role in maintaining ecosystems and adapting humans to climate variation.Due to excessive reliance on groundwater in some regions,the amount of groundwater being consumed is higher than the recharge,which leads to a durative decline of groundwater level.This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage(GWS)in China.And the possible drivers of observed GWS changes were also identified.GWS level displayed large regional disparities with higher reserves in the Yangtze River Basin and Songhua River Basin.Temporally,GWS level showed decreasing trends in the North China Plain region,Yellow River Basin,Inner Mongolia Plateau and Junggar Basin.And,GWS showed a significant increase in the Tibetan Plateau and Songhua River Basin.Without considering the impact of human activities,groundwater reserves are also showing a decreasing trend in future climate scenarios in most of the 15 zones.Contribution analysis of driving forces on the basis of the percentages of standardized coefficient(r)suggested that the variations of GWS were largely controlled by anthropogenic activities with the contribution proportions of 35.43%-73.37%.And the contribution proportions of natural drivers accounted for 26.63%-64.62%,with the key factors of precipitation,temperature and vegetation cover.The results would help to formulate sustainable strategies for managing groundwater resource.展开更多
Under global warming,Asian glaciers have experienced accelerated retreats and increased mass loss.Utilizing data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS),this study selected 16 representative glaciers across As...Under global warming,Asian glaciers have experienced accelerated retreats and increased mass loss.Utilizing data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS),this study selected 16 representative glaciers across Asia to analyse the temporal and spatial changes of glacial mass balance(GMB),equilibrium line altitude(ELA),and accumulation area ratio(AAR)in the past several decades.Based on structural equation modelling and correlation analysis,we evaluated the responses of glacier change to climate change.The results indicated that 14 glaciers experienced mass loss,with the Parlung No.94 Glacier exhibiting a severe loss and significant retreat.In contrast,the Abramov,Muztag Ata No.15,Chhota Shigri,and Yala glaciers showed an increase in GMB,consistent with the"Karakoram Glacier anomaly".Additionally,a latitudinal gradient was observed,with ELA decreasing,AAR rising,and the rate and magnitude of glacier mass loss decreasing as latitude increased.GMB was negatively correlated with ELA and positively correlated with AAR,with the Vodopaniy No.125 Glacier showing the highest sensitivity to GMB variations.GMB fluctuation is influenced by energy(surface net solar radiation,air temperature)and precipitation.The significant decline of the Parlung No.94 Glacier was ascribed to rising temperature.From west to east in the Himalayas,the negative effects of energy on GMB decreased,with positive precipitation having a particularly large impact on the Yala Glacier.The Chhota Shigri,Djankuat,and Hamaguri Yuki glaciers displayed different states of mass balance due to the influence of climatic factors.This study pro-vides valuable insights into the comprehensive understanding of glacier change in Asia and its responses to climate change.展开更多
In recent years,soil acidification has been expanding in many areas of Asia due to increasing reactive nitrogen inputs and industrial activities,which may seriously affect the performance of various ecosystem function...In recent years,soil acidification has been expanding in many areas of Asia due to increasing reactive nitrogen inputs and industrial activities,which may seriously affect the performance of various ecosystem functions.However,the underlying patterns and processes of ecosystem multifunctionality(EMF)are largely unknown at different levels of pH,limiting our understanding of how EMF respond to drivers.This study aims to explore threshold of pH on changes in EMF and differences in the drivers for the changes in EMF on either side of each of the determined pH thresholds.We collected nutrient and environmental databases for raster-level sampling data,totaling 4,000 sampling points.Averaging and cluster-multiple-threshold approach were used to calculate EMF,then quadratic and generalized additive models and Mann-Whitney U were used to determine and test the pH thresholds for changes in EMF,structural equation modellings and variance partitioning analysis were used to explore the main drivers on changes in EMF.The pH threshold for EMF changes in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems is 6.0.When pH<6.0,climate was consistently more important in controlling the variation of EMF than other variables;when pH≥6.0,soil was consistently more important in controlling the variation of EMF than other variables.Specifically,when pH<6.0,mean annual temperature was the main factor in regulating the EMF variation;when pH≥6.0,soil moisture was the main factor in regulating the EMF variation.Our study provides important scientific value for the mechanism of maintaining EMF under global change.For example,with further increases in global nitrogen deposition,leading to increased soil acidification,there are different impacts on EMF in different regions.It may lead to a decrease in EMF in acidic soils and an increase in EMF in alkaline soils.This suggests different management strategies for different regions to maintain EMF stability in the context of future global changes.In the future,more attention should be paid to the biological mechanisms regulating EMF.展开更多
Climate change can affect rainfall and temperature worldwide,and the ability of birds to react to these changes can be mirrored by studying population phenology and their breeding success.Some European species have ad...Climate change can affect rainfall and temperature worldwide,and the ability of birds to react to these changes can be mirrored by studying population phenology and their breeding success.Some European species have advanced arrival and breeding dates in response to local spring advancement,but conditions experienced during winter seasons may also affect arrival dates and subsequent breeding success.We utilized data collected from 1983 to 2020 in four colonies of Common Swift(Apus apus)in Northern Italy(5486 breeding attempts)to examine the variations of laying date and breeding success in relation to non-breeding conditions(previous winter in Africa)and local conditions in breeding period(spring).Climatic conditions were monitored using the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)indices to describe conditions experienced in winter quarters and the local temperature and rainfall conditions of the breeding area.Common Swifts laid their eggs earlier in warmer springs,and this in turn had a positive effect on breeding success.We did not find evidence for any effects of African winter conditions on laying date nor on breeding success.However,because studies made in the same area have demonstrated a relationship of winter conditions(NAO)on individual survival,our data highlight the importance of considering environmental variables across the annual life cycle to understand variation in Common Swift populations.展开更多
文摘Over the last three decades,more than half of the world's large lakes and wetlands have experienced significant shrinkage,primarily due to climate change and extensive water consumption for agriculture and other human needs.The desiccation of lakes leads to severe environmental,economic,and social repercussions.Urmia Lake,located in northwestern Iran and representing a vital natural ecosystem,has experienced a volume reduction of over 90.0%.Our research evaluated diverse water management strategies within the Urmia Lake basin and prospects of inter-basin water transfers.This study focused on strategies to safeguard the environmental water rights of the Urmia Lake by utilizing the modeling and simulating(MODSIM)model.The model simulated changes in the lake's water volume under various scenarios.These included diverting water from incoming rivers,cutting agricultural water use by 40.0%,releasing dam water in non-agricultural seasons,treated wastewater utilization,and inter-basin transfers.Analytical hierarchy process(AHP)was utilized to analyze the simulation results.Expert opinions with AHP analysis,acted as a multi-criteria decision-making tool to evaluate the simulation and determine the optimal water supply source priority for the Urmia Lake.Our findings underscore the critical importance of reducing agricultural water consumption as the foremost step in preserving the lake.Following this,inter-basin water transfers are suggested,with a detailed consideration of the inherent challenges and limitations faced by the source watersheds.It is imperative to conduct assessments on the impacts of these transfers on the downstream users and the potential environmental risks,advocating for a diplomatic and cooperative approach with adjacent country.This study also aims to forecast the volumes of water that can be transferred under different climatic conditions—drought,normal,and wet years—to inform strategic water management planning for the Urmia Lake.According to our projection,implementing the strategic scenarios outlined could significantly augment the lake's level and volume,potentially by 3.57×109–9.38×109 m3 over the coming 10 a and 3.57×109–10.70×109 m3 in the subsequent 15 a.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40271114, 40301051)
文摘Based on investigations of the Zhongwei Nanshan aeolian section situated in the southeastern margin of Tengger Desert, carbon-14 and TL (thermoluminescence) dating results and paleoclimatic proxies such as magnetic susceptibility and grain size, we inferred that the northwestern margin of East Asian monsoon region experienced abrupt climatic changes during the last deglaciation. Six oscillation events were identified: Oldest Dryas, Bolling, Older Dryas, Allerod, Intra-Allerod Cold Period (IACP) and Younger Dryas (YD). The summer monsoon was weaker during Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas when the winter monsoon was stronger. However, during the B/A (Bolling/Allerod) period, the summer monsoon strengthened, reflected by magnetic susceptibility, when the winter monsoon also became strong, which is different from the paleoclimatic pattern established in the East Asian monsoon region. Furthermore, the summer monsoon was nearly in phase with the climate changes inferred from the oxygen isotopic records of Greenland ice cores. It could be speculated that the variations of the sea ice cover in the high latitudes of the North Hemisphere affected the high pressure of Asian continent and the changes of the winter monsoon inland. On the other hand, the sea ice cover variations might have indirectly caused the occurrence of ENSO events that has tightly been related to the summer monsoon in northwest margin of East Asian monsoon region.
文摘The opening and many years of research of magnetic spinor particles (real magnetic charges) in atoms and substance have enabled the author to formulate the conception of the Physical Triad, according which the real World consists of three fundamental phases: Matter, Antimatter and Energo-phase (Energo-medium). Particles of Matter are called spinors and particles of Antimatter are called antispinors. Energo-medium is a gasiform phase of high density that fills by himself all the infinite space of the real World. It consists of spinless and massless particles-energions. Spinor fields can be both flows energions (fields of Matter), so and anti-flow energions (fields of Antimatter). Atomic-shaped structures consisting of electric and magnetic spinor particles represent a Physical Mass (atoms, nucleons, etc.). The main characteristic of all varieties of Mass is its ability radiate gravitational field, which is a vortex electromagnetic field. All spinor particles are massless so as individually generate a gravitational field they can’t. All primary forces in the real World are implemented by means of Energo-medium, i.e. contact pressure its particles—energions. The spinor fields, including the gravitational field, myself the real of the power significance, have not. They are only intermediaries, inducing in Energo-medium its active (power) education, which is called “Dark Energy”. “Dark Energy” can be both positive, so and negative. Namely, a positive “Dark Energy”, which is associated with the technical activity of man, is responsible for stable climatic changes on Earth. Greenhouse gases are not the main “culprit” of climatic changes on our planet. However, these gases are the simplest indicator of the overall level of irreversible physical processes that stimulate the growth of the positive “Dark Energy” and are responsible for the negative thermal scenario on Earth.
文摘Climatic changes can be separated into two parts: natural changes -and human activity influenced on climatic changes. The observed data could not only show the effects caused by human activity. Several simulated results as simulated by the GCMs induced by the greenhouse effects in China .have been analysed. It is shown that an obvious warming of about 3-6℃ in winter and 2-5℃ in summer in China as simulated by the GCMs induced by doubling CO2 have been found. There are getting drier or wetter regions in China due to doubled CO2 as simulated by most of models. Comparing the simulated results with the observed data in China, some simulated results are able to be believed. The GCMs should be improved, especially in the regional areas.
基金Sino-France Cooperation Foundation (PRA E02-07) The key project of CAS+3 种基金No.KZCX3-SW-331 National Natural Science Foundation of China No.40271112 Foundation of Key Laboratory of Flood and Waterlogging and Wet Land Agriculture of Hubei Province
文摘Wide collection on the historic records of the climatic changes and flood events is performed in the Yangtze Delta. Man-Kendall (MK) method is applied to explore the changing trends of the time series of the flood discharge and the maximum high summer temperature. The research results indicate that the flood magnitudes increased during the transition from the medieval warm interval into the early Little Ice Age. Fluctuating climate changes of the Little Ice Age characterized by arid climate events followed by the humid and cold climate conditions give rise to the frequent flood hazards. Low-lying terrain made the study region prone to the flood hazards, storm tide and typhoon. MK analysis reveals that the jumping point of the time series of the flood discharge changes occurred in the mid-1960s, that of the maximum summer temperature changes in the mid-1990s, and the exact jump point in 1993. The flood discharge changes are on negative trend before the 1990s, they are on positive tendency after the 1990s; the maximum high summer temperature changes are on negative trend before the 1990s and on positive tendency after the 1990s. These results indicate that the trend of flood discharge matches that of the maximum high summer temperature in the Yangtze Delta. The occurrence probability of the maximum high summer temperature will be increasing under the climatic warming scenario and which will in turn increase the occurrence probability of the flood events. More active solar action epochs and the higher sea surface temperature index (SST index) of the south Pacific Ocean area lying between 4 o N-4 o S and 150 o W-90 o W correspond to increased annual precipitation, flood discharge and occurrence frequency of floods in the Yangtze Delta. This is partly because the intensified solar activities and the higher SST index give rise to accelerated hydrological circulation from ocean surface to the continent, resulting in increased precipitation on the continent.
基金funded by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program) under Grant No. 2010CB951701by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071042)supported by the Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-BR-22)
文摘Robust climate warming has led to significant expansion of lakes in the central Tibetan Plateau. Using remote sensing data, our quantitative analysis indicates that Siling Co, a saline lake in a characteristic endorheic basin in the central region of the Plateau, has expanded more than 600 km2 in area since 1976. Particularly since 1995, the lake has signif- icantly expanded in response to increasing precipitation, decreasing water surface evaporation caused by weaker winds and less solar radiation, and increased glacier meltwater draining to the lake. Glacie^lake interactions are important in governing lake expansion and are also part of a feedback loop that influences the local climate. Worsening climatic conditions （decreased precipitation and increased temperatures） that could have caused the lake to shrink during 1976-1994 were offset by increasing glacier meltwater feeding the lake, which made the lake nearly stable. We demonstrate that this pattern changed during 1995-2009, when glacier meltwater actually decreased but participation runoff increased and evaporation decreased, leading to expansion of the lake. If climatic conditions became suitable for further lake development, which would be indicated by expansion in lake area, glacier meltwater could be saved in a stable reservoir.
基金Chinese Post-D octoralFoundation Wang,K C Post-doctoralEducation Foundation (H ong K ong)
文摘Variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in January and July and annual mean temperature and annual precipitation are analyzed with the help of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall analysis and wavelet analysis. The research results indicate that January precipitation presents an increasing trend after 1990, wavelet analysis result suggests that this increasing trend will continue in the near future. The changes of July precipitation present different features. During 1900-1960, July precipitation is in a rising trend, but is in a declining trend after 1960. Wavelet analysis shows that this declining trend will go on in the near future. Temperature variations in Shanghai are in fluctuations with 2 to 3 temperature rising periods. Mann-Kendall analysis indicates that temperature variations have the obvious abrupt change time when compared with precipitation changes in Shanghai during the past 100 years. The abrupt change time of January temperature lies in 1985, and that of July temperature lies in 1931-1933 and annual mean temperature has the abrupt change time in 1923-1930. Except July precipitation, the precipitation in January, temperature in January, July and annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are also in a rising trend in the near future. The research results in this paper may be meaningful for future further climatic changes of Shanghai and social mitigation of climatic disasters in the future.
基金financially supported by the Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities or "111 Project" of China (B08037)
文摘Rapid economic growth in China has brought about great economic-social changes in rural areas, having considerable impact on the society in economy and environment. With a per capita possession of about 0.08 ha of cropland, Chinese farmers in rural areas adopt various ways in response to these changes in a bit to maintain their livelihood, wherein the agricultural system is facing one more options possible. To understand how rural communities have used different mechanisms to adapt to the economic and natural changes, we joined a survey in dry valleys of the Min upriver area under Maoxian county of western Sichuan province, southwestern China and visited the local people. Changes in the main crop cultivation have shown up an important means to keep up their household income. Farm households start seeking economic growth through diversified cultivating of cereal and economic crops in five lines, namely cereal, apple monoculture, apple and vegetables, plum and vegetables, mixed fruits and vegetables. These new lines mirror farmers' flexibility to cope with today's economic-social and climatic changes. The farming operation has changed all the more from a subsistence on grain to special agricultural products. Economic reforms in the early 1980 s motivated theprogress first in conversion of production from grain to fruits, and the desire to increase family income turned out to be an impetus for the subsequent events. At present, more farmers moving out of the rural areas, uneasy availability of labor force, increased opportunity cost of labors and their wages, increased farm size, and the urgent demand for the agricultural labor force, all these combine into the trend of the agricultural system of China on facing further economic-social reforms and reconstruction of the countryside across China.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.49901012Royal Society Royal Fellowships Programme of the United Kingdom (Ref: ART/CN/AFI/RF/10394)
文摘Soil erosion assessment and prediction play critical roles in addressing problems associated with erosion control or soil conservation. The past dynamics of soil erosion can provide valuable information for us to understand the relations of soil erosion to environmental change and anthropogenic activity. The present paper has compared Holocene climatic changes in northwestern China with those in southern Norway, and investigated the past dynamics of erosion activity during the Holocene. Modern soil erosion on the Loess Plateau is a combination of the intensive natural erosion and human-induced erosion, the latter being four times greater than the former. Because of global warming and increasing human activities, climate on the Loess Plateau is becoming dryer and more unstable, causing an enhanced erosion problem and water scarcity. In the arctic-alpine region of southern Norway, however, the global warming and regional wetting caused expansion of the largest European ice cap. This has accentuated the erosion in that region, with a higher frequency of avalanches and debris flows.
文摘The large-scale summer monsoon circulations of south Asia makes a strong impact on precipitation in the area of southwestern China including Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Yun-Gui Plateau.however,the monsoon is both spatially and temporally complex and smaller-scale circulations are forced by a variety of local or regional orographic effects,local or regional land-atmosphere or
文摘The acronym C6 means ＂Climatic Changes and Carbon Cycle in Canyons and Caves＂. It is a monitoring project, for the evaluation of climate change signals, based on measuring sites located inside canyons and caves; it merged in the year 2005, under the scientific supervision of the Palermo Branch of the Italian National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology （INGV）, two different monitoring programs active since 1999. The choice of these environments is based on their morphological structure： being them more or less segregated respect the outer atmosphere, they act as low-pass filters respect the variations of the monitored parameters, which are rainfall and dropping water amounts and rates, air temperatures and relative humidity and carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. On the basis of the preliminary data, reported and discussed in the paper, the C6 network seems to be capable to give useful information on the local effects of global changes, even if at the moment the monitored parameters concern only the abiotic components of the studied ecosystems.
文摘Climatic changes and their impact are increasingly evident in Pakistan,especially in the mountainous regions. Mountain ecosystems are consideredto be sensitive indicators of global warming;even slight variationsin temperature can lead to significant shifts in local climate, which can,in turn, drastically affect the natural environment, subsequently alteringpeople’s lifestyle and wildlife habitats. The targeted area for the presentresearch was Lower Dir District, Pakistan. The study gathered the requiredinformation from primary and secondary sources. Secondary dataon temperature and precipitation were obtained from various sources,i.e., local CBO, including WWF Pakistan. Based on information gatheredon climate change and wildlife, a detailed questionnaire was designed.Results showed that no regular pattern of the increase was found in temperaturefrom 2010 to 2018;the same was noticed in the rainfall decreasepattern. Results also showed that the leading causes behind climaticchanges are an increase in greenhouse gases due to pollution by industries,vehicles, crushing plants, deforestation, and some natural phenomenasuch as floods. The study showed that more than 80% of the respondentsagreed that climatic effects have a significant impact on wildlife, i.e.,the existence of wildlife falls in danger due to climatic changes as it maylead to habitat change, making it difficult for the survival and adaptationof the wildlife. Hence, in consequence, it leads to migration, low growthrate, an increase in morbidity and mortality rate, and finally leading to theextinction of the species or population. It is concluded from the study thatpeople are severely noticing the climatic change and its leading causesare greenhouse gases and deforestation. To control climatic changes andwildlife extinction, we need an appropriate policy for forest conservation,wildlife conservation, prevent hunting, industrial pollution control, vehiclepollution control, increase in plantation, awareness of policy for thecontrol of climatic changes, etc.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFC0407303)“Young Talents”Project of Northeast Agricultural University(No.20QC13)the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(No.E2017009)。
文摘Previous works were mainly concentrated on long-term average runoff alterations,and extreme temperatures and watershed conditions are little analyzed.In this study,we collected gauged river flow and meteorological data time series from 1916 to 2015 and 1941 to 2015 across the contiguous United States(CONUS)for 188 catchments to investigate the temporal trends and spatial features of runoff changes at multi-time scales.We also analyzed the relationships between runoff changes and climatic factors.Median descriptive statistics and Budyko coupled climate elasticity methods were used to calculate runoff elasticity in each time scale.The original Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test their trend significance in four time-scale(11,20,40,and 60 a),respectively.The results show that the trend of runoff changes is more significant in high time scales;total changes are heterogeneous over CONUS.After the 1970s,increases of up to 27%decade-1 were mainly concentrated in the mid-northern regions.Maximum temperature and catchment characteristics are vital factors for runoff alteration;runoff changes are independent of rainfall,and wet regions tend to have lower changes.These findings could help develop better regional water resource planning and management.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of Human-ities and Social Science project,China(Grant No.21YJA630121)the National Key Technology R&D Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2023YFD1500103)+2 种基金the Tsinghua Rural Studies PhD Scholarship(Grant No.202323)2023 Gradu-ate Innovation Fund Project of China University of Geosciences,Beijing(Grant No.ZD2023YC043)National Social Science Fund of China(Grants No.19ZDA096 and 20&ZD090)。
文摘Conversion of dryland to paddy fields(CDPF)is an effective way to transition from rain-fed to irrigated agricul ture,helping to mitigate the effects of climate change on agriculture and increase yields to meet growing food demand.However,the suitability of CDPF is spatio-temporally dynamic but has often been neglected in previous studies.To fill this knowledge gap,this research developed a novel method for quantifying the suitability of CDPF,based on the MaxEnt model for application in Northeast China.We explored the spatiotemporal characteristics of the suitability of CDPF under the baseline scenario(2010-2020),and future projections(2030-2090)coupled with climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585),and revealed the driving factors behind it.Based on this,we identified potential priority areas for future CDPF implementation.The results show that the suitability of CDPF projects implemented in the past ten years is relatively high.Com pared with the baseline scenario,the suitability of CDPF under the future scenarios will decline overall,with the lightest decrease in the RCP585 and the most severe decrease in the RCP245.The key drivers affecting the suitability of CDPF are elevation,slope,population count,total nitrogen,soil organic carbon content,and precip itation seasonality.The potential priority areas for the future CDPF range from 6,284.61 km^(2)to 37,006.02 km^(2).These findings demonstrate the challenges of CDPF in adapting to climate change and food security,and provide insights for food-producing regions around the world facing climate crises.
基金funded by USAID’s Community Partnerships to Strengthen Sustainable Development(Compass)Program implemented by U.S.Forest Service International Programs(Grant No.Compass-SA-2023-073).
文摘Protecting rare,endemic,and endangered species requires careful habitat evaluation to set strategic plans for mitigating biodiversity loss and prioritizing conservation goals.The endangered Asian elephant(Elephas maximus)exemplifies the urgent need for targeted conservation efforts,given its challenging habitat conditions.This study examines the impact of climate and land use changes on the suitable habitat distribution of Asian elephants.Utilizing ten predictor variables,including climatic,topographic,and land use data,and employing six ensemble Species Distribution Models(SDMs)alongside Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data,the study estimates spatial changes and potential habitat expansions for Asian elephants across Tropical Asia.Occurrence data were gathered from field surveys in Bangladesh and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database for Sri Lanka,Myanmar,Bhutan,Cambodia,India,Laos,Nepal,Thailand,and Vietnam.To evaluate habitat suitability,the analysis considered two distinct socioeconomic pathways(SSP 245 and SSP 370)across two future periods(2041–2060 and 2061–2080).Results reveal a strong correlation between isothermality and habitat suitability,with higher isothermality enhancing the habitat conditions for Asian elephants.Among the SDMs,the random forest model demonstrated the highest performance.Projected scenarios indicate significant habitat fragmentation by 2061–2080,heightening the risk of species’vulnerability.Specifically,in SSP 245,the north zone is anticipated to experience a higher rate of habitat loss(588.443 km^(2)/year),whereas,in SSP 370,the west zone is expected to face a more severe rate of habitat loss(1,798.56 km^(2)/year).The eastern zone,which includes Cambodia,Vietnam,Laos,Thailand,and southern Myanmar,is notably at risk,with an estimated habitat loss of 14.8 million hectares.Anticipated changes in climate and land cover will impact the availability of essential resources such as food,water,and shelter,potentially driving the species to relocate to different elevation belts.The outcomes of the consensus map highlighting critical habitats and future fragmentation scenarios will support effective conservation and management strategies for the species.
基金supported by the Ecological Conservation and High-Quality Development of the Yellow River Basin Program,China(2022-YRUC-010102)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program,China(20190ZKK0405)the Basic Research Fund Project of Innovation Team of Novel Forage Germplasm and Sustainable Utilization of Grassland Resources,China(BR22-12-07)。
文摘There is growing interest in introducing ecological risks(ERs)and ecosystem services(ESs)into environmental policies and practices.However,the integration of ESs and ERs into actual decision-making remains insufficient.We simulated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESs(e.g.,carbon storage,water yield,habitat quality,and soil conservation)and ERs in the upper reach of the Yellow River(URYR)from 2000 to 2100.Additionally,we explored their relationships by combining the InVEST model and a landscape ecological risk model with CMIP6 data.Our main findings showed that regional ERs change in response to land use and environmental dynamics.Specifically,the ER area decreased by 27,673 m^(2)during 2000-2020,but it is projected to increase by 13,273,438,and 68 m^(2)under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.We also observed remarkable spatial differences in ESs and ERs between past and future scenarios.For instance,the source area of the URYR exhibited high ESs and low ERs(P<0.001),while the ESs and ERs are declining and increasing,respectively,in the northeastern URYR(P<0.05).Finally,we proposed a spatial optimization framework to improve ESs and reduce ERs,which will support regional sustainable development.
基金funded by the China Geological Survey Program(No.DD20230075)the key project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U21A20155)。
文摘Groundwater is the major source of fresh water,and it performs a crucial role in maintaining ecosystems and adapting humans to climate variation.Due to excessive reliance on groundwater in some regions,the amount of groundwater being consumed is higher than the recharge,which leads to a durative decline of groundwater level.This study analyzed the spatiotemporal variability in groundwater storage(GWS)in China.And the possible drivers of observed GWS changes were also identified.GWS level displayed large regional disparities with higher reserves in the Yangtze River Basin and Songhua River Basin.Temporally,GWS level showed decreasing trends in the North China Plain region,Yellow River Basin,Inner Mongolia Plateau and Junggar Basin.And,GWS showed a significant increase in the Tibetan Plateau and Songhua River Basin.Without considering the impact of human activities,groundwater reserves are also showing a decreasing trend in future climate scenarios in most of the 15 zones.Contribution analysis of driving forces on the basis of the percentages of standardized coefficient(r)suggested that the variations of GWS were largely controlled by anthropogenic activities with the contribution proportions of 35.43%-73.37%.And the contribution proportions of natural drivers accounted for 26.63%-64.62%,with the key factors of precipitation,temperature and vegetation cover.The results would help to formulate sustainable strategies for managing groundwater resource.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Devel-opment Program of China(2023YFC3206300)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42477529)the Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program(22ZD6FA005).
文摘Under global warming,Asian glaciers have experienced accelerated retreats and increased mass loss.Utilizing data from the World Glacier Monitoring Service(WGMS),this study selected 16 representative glaciers across Asia to analyse the temporal and spatial changes of glacial mass balance(GMB),equilibrium line altitude(ELA),and accumulation area ratio(AAR)in the past several decades.Based on structural equation modelling and correlation analysis,we evaluated the responses of glacier change to climate change.The results indicated that 14 glaciers experienced mass loss,with the Parlung No.94 Glacier exhibiting a severe loss and significant retreat.In contrast,the Abramov,Muztag Ata No.15,Chhota Shigri,and Yala glaciers showed an increase in GMB,consistent with the"Karakoram Glacier anomaly".Additionally,a latitudinal gradient was observed,with ELA decreasing,AAR rising,and the rate and magnitude of glacier mass loss decreasing as latitude increased.GMB was negatively correlated with ELA and positively correlated with AAR,with the Vodopaniy No.125 Glacier showing the highest sensitivity to GMB variations.GMB fluctuation is influenced by energy(surface net solar radiation,air temperature)and precipitation.The significant decline of the Parlung No.94 Glacier was ascribed to rising temperature.From west to east in the Himalayas,the negative effects of energy on GMB decreased,with positive precipitation having a particularly large impact on the Yala Glacier.The Chhota Shigri,Djankuat,and Hamaguri Yuki glaciers displayed different states of mass balance due to the influence of climatic factors.This study pro-vides valuable insights into the comprehensive understanding of glacier change in Asia and its responses to climate change.
基金This work was supported by the Tianshan Programme of Excellence(2022TSYCCX0001)the National Key Program for Basic Research and Development(973 Program)(2012CB417101)。
文摘In recent years,soil acidification has been expanding in many areas of Asia due to increasing reactive nitrogen inputs and industrial activities,which may seriously affect the performance of various ecosystem functions.However,the underlying patterns and processes of ecosystem multifunctionality(EMF)are largely unknown at different levels of pH,limiting our understanding of how EMF respond to drivers.This study aims to explore threshold of pH on changes in EMF and differences in the drivers for the changes in EMF on either side of each of the determined pH thresholds.We collected nutrient and environmental databases for raster-level sampling data,totaling 4,000 sampling points.Averaging and cluster-multiple-threshold approach were used to calculate EMF,then quadratic and generalized additive models and Mann-Whitney U were used to determine and test the pH thresholds for changes in EMF,structural equation modellings and variance partitioning analysis were used to explore the main drivers on changes in EMF.The pH threshold for EMF changes in Chinese terrestrial ecosystems is 6.0.When pH<6.0,climate was consistently more important in controlling the variation of EMF than other variables;when pH≥6.0,soil was consistently more important in controlling the variation of EMF than other variables.Specifically,when pH<6.0,mean annual temperature was the main factor in regulating the EMF variation;when pH≥6.0,soil moisture was the main factor in regulating the EMF variation.Our study provides important scientific value for the mechanism of maintaining EMF under global change.For example,with further increases in global nitrogen deposition,leading to increased soil acidification,there are different impacts on EMF in different regions.It may lead to a decrease in EMF in acidic soils and an increase in EMF in alkaline soils.This suggests different management strategies for different regions to maintain EMF stability in the context of future global changes.In the future,more attention should be paid to the biological mechanisms regulating EMF.
文摘Climate change can affect rainfall and temperature worldwide,and the ability of birds to react to these changes can be mirrored by studying population phenology and their breeding success.Some European species have advanced arrival and breeding dates in response to local spring advancement,but conditions experienced during winter seasons may also affect arrival dates and subsequent breeding success.We utilized data collected from 1983 to 2020 in four colonies of Common Swift(Apus apus)in Northern Italy(5486 breeding attempts)to examine the variations of laying date and breeding success in relation to non-breeding conditions(previous winter in Africa)and local conditions in breeding period(spring).Climatic conditions were monitored using the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and El Nino Southern Oscillation(ENSO)indices to describe conditions experienced in winter quarters and the local temperature and rainfall conditions of the breeding area.Common Swifts laid their eggs earlier in warmer springs,and this in turn had a positive effect on breeding success.We did not find evidence for any effects of African winter conditions on laying date nor on breeding success.However,because studies made in the same area have demonstrated a relationship of winter conditions(NAO)on individual survival,our data highlight the importance of considering environmental variables across the annual life cycle to understand variation in Common Swift populations.
