In the context of global climate change,the increasing frequency of extreme weather events presents significant challenges to urban water systems.This study focuses on the Beijing section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand...In the context of global climate change,the increasing frequency of extreme weather events presents significant challenges to urban water systems.This study focuses on the Beijing section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal,introduces the SEE model,and develops an integrated“comprehensive water environment simulation model”to systematically examine the path for enhancing its climate resilience.Through the coupling of multiple models(MIKE 11,MIKE URBAN,MIKE 21)and scenario simulations,this study analyzes the response mechanisms of various governance strategies under extreme climate conditions.The research proposes four specific measures to enhance resilience:dual-scenario simulation of climate and governance,identification and reinforcement of weak points in resilience,parametric modeling of ecological restoration interventions,and the development of a“digital twin canal system”.The research findings indicate that the system integration of the SEE model substantially improves the adaptability,endurance,and recovery capacity of canals in response to climate shocks,including heavy rainfall and drought.This provides a scientific foundation and a practical path for achieving long-term resilience and sustainable development of urban water systems.展开更多
In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly explo...In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.展开更多
Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps ...Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps to formulate differential scientific carbon mitigation policies.In this regard,this study constructs an integrated model of SD-PLUS-InVEST to simulate LUCs and CS changes under multi-climate change-based scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)for three major urban agglomerations(3UAs)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Results demonstrate that land use demand in the 3UAs changes considerably in each scenario.Construction land in the 3UAs remains the most important growth category for the coming decade,but its increase varies in different scenarios.CS in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA)and Mid-Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(MYRUA)shows a similar downward trend under different scenarios,with scenario SSP245 decreasing the most,to 184,713.526 Tg and 384,459.729 Tg,respectively.CS in the Cheng-Yu(Chengdu-Chongqing)Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)exhibits the opposite upward trend,with scenario SSP126 increasing the most to 153,007.973 Tg.The major cause of CS loss remains the conversion of forest land to construction land in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.However,in the CYUA,the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the major driver of CS loss under scenario SSP126.In contrast,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land dominantly drives CS loss under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585.The conversion of water body to other land use types is the major cause of CS gain in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.At the same time,in the CYUA,the driver is the conversion of cultivated land to forest land.These findings demonstrate the significance of the low-carbon development in urban agglomerations at different development stages at home and abroad.展开更多
In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xi...In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xia Dynasty.This study combines traditional literature(Xia Xiao Zheng),archaeological evidence(on alligators),and climate simulation(of autumn rains)to demonstrate that the ancient Chinese phenological calendar,Xia Xiao Zheng,likely originated in the same region as the Erlitou culture.A logical explanation of these findings is that both Xia Xiao Zheng and the Erlitou culture are indeed closely related to the Xia Dynasty.展开更多
Wire arc additive manufacturing(WAAM)has emerged as a promising approach for fabricating large-scale components.However,conventional WAAM still faces challenges in optimizing microstructural evolution,minimizing addit...Wire arc additive manufacturing(WAAM)has emerged as a promising approach for fabricating large-scale components.However,conventional WAAM still faces challenges in optimizing microstructural evolution,minimizing additive-induced defects,and alleviating residual stress and deformation,all of which are critical for enhancing the mechanical performance of the manufactured parts.Integrating interlayer friction stir processing(FSP)into WAAM significantly enhances the quality of deposited materials.However,numerical simulation research focusing on elucidating the associated thermomechanical coupling mechanisms remains insufficient.A comprehensive numerical model was developed to simulate the thermomechanical coupling behavior in friction stir-assisted WAAM.The influence of post-deposition FSP on the coupled thermomechanical response of the WAAM process was analyzed quantitatively.Moreover,the residual stress distribution and deformation behavior under both single-layer and multilayer deposition conditions were investigated.Thermal analysis of different deposition layers in WAAM and friction stir-assisted WAAM was conducted.Results show that subsequent layer deposition induces partial remelting of the previously solidified layer,whereas FSP does not cause such remelting.Furthermore,thermal stress and deformation analysis confirm that interlayer FSP effectively mitigates residual stresses and distortion in WAAM components,thereby improving their structural integrity and mechanical properties.展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis...This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.展开更多
This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The re...This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy,wind energy,hydropower energy,as well as biomass and bioenergy,positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment.The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,improve air quality,enhance energy security,and support rural development.Case studies from Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits.However,the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers,including outdated infrastructure,fragmented regulatory frameworks,limited investment,and shortages of technical expertise.Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform,stronger regional cooperation,and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors.Modernizing grids,deploying storage systems,and investing in education,research,and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector.Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals,enhance environmental resilience,and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation,investment,and regional collaboration.展开更多
Centrifugal casting of ductile iron pipe is a high-temperature,semi-continuous production process.However,conducting laboratory research on the solidification process of centrifugal casting of ductile iron pipe presen...Centrifugal casting of ductile iron pipe is a high-temperature,semi-continuous production process.However,conducting laboratory research on the solidification process of centrifugal casting of ductile iron pipe presents significant challenges.In this study,a novel research method was introduced for investigating the solidification process of ductile iron pipe,namely thermal simulation of ductile iron pipe.Comparative research was conducted on the microstructure and properties of the thermal simulation sample and the ductile iron pipe.The findings indicate that the thermal simulation sample and ductile iron pipe exhibit good heat transfer similarity and microstructure similarity.The difference of cooling rate between thermal simulation sample and ductile pipe is less than 0.24℃·s^(-1),and the difference of microstructure content of free cementite,ferrite,and pearlite is less than 5%.The tensile strength of annealed ductile iron pipe is 466 MPa,with an elongation of 16.1%and a Brinell hardness of 156.5 HBW.In comparison,the tensile strength of annealed thermal simulation sample is 482.0 MPa,with an elongation of 15.5%and a Brinell hardness of 159.0 HBW.These results suggest that the thermal simulation experimental research method is both scientific and feasible,offering an objective,reliable,and cost-effective approach to laboratory research on ductile iron pipe.展开更多
BACKGROUND Orthopaedic surgical education has traditionally depended on the apprenticeship model of“see one,do one,teach one”.However,reduced operative exposure,stricter work-hour regulations,medicolegal constraints...BACKGROUND Orthopaedic surgical education has traditionally depended on the apprenticeship model of“see one,do one,teach one”.However,reduced operative exposure,stricter work-hour regulations,medicolegal constraints,and patient safety concerns have constrained its practicality.Simulation-based training has become a reliable,safe,and cost-efficient alternative.Dry lab techniques,especially virtual and augmented reality,make up 78%of current dry lab research,whereas wet labs still set the standard for anatomical realism.AIM To evaluate the effectiveness,limitations,and future directions of wet and dry lab simulation in orthopaedic training.METHODS A scoping review was carried out across four databases-PubMed,Cochrane Library,Web of Science,and EBSCOhost-up to 2025.Medical Subject Headings included:"Orthopaedic Education","Wet Lab","Dry Lab","Simulation Training","Virtual Reality",and"Surgical Procedure".Eligible studies focused on orthopaedic or spinal surgical education,employed wet or dry lab techniques,and assessed training effectiveness.Exclusion criteria consisted of non-English publications,abstracts only,non-orthopaedic research,and studies unrelated to simulation.Two reviewers independently screened titles,abstracts,and full texts,resolving discrepancies with a third reviewer.RESULTS From 1851 records,101 studies met inclusion:78 on dry labs,7 on wet labs,4 on both.Virtual reality(VR)simulations were most common,with AI increasingly used for feedback and assessment.Cadaveric training remains the gold standard for accuracy and tactile feedback,while dry labs-especially VR-offer scalability,lower cost(40%-60%savings in five studies),and accessibility for novices.Senior residents prefer wet labs for complex tasks;juniors favour dry labs for basics.Challenges include limited transferability data,lack of standard outcome metrics,and ethical concerns about cadaver use and AI assessment.CONCLUSION Wet and dry labs each have unique strengths in orthopaedic training.A hybrid approach combining both,supported by standardised assessments and outcome studies,is most effective.Future efforts should aim for uniform reporting,integrating new technologies,and policy support for hybrid curricula to enhance skills and patient care.展开更多
This study introduces a new ocean surface friction velocity scheme and a modified Thompson cloud microphysics parameterization scheme into the CMA-TYM model.The impact of these two parameterization schemes on the pred...This study introduces a new ocean surface friction velocity scheme and a modified Thompson cloud microphysics parameterization scheme into the CMA-TYM model.The impact of these two parameterization schemes on the prediction of the movement track and intensity of Typhoon Kompasu in 2021 is examined.Additionally,the possible reasons for their effects on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity prediction are analyzed.Statistical results show that both parameterization schemes improve the predictions of Typhoon Kompasu’s track and intensity.The influence on track prediction becomes evident after 60 h of model integration,while the significant positive impact on intensity prediction is observed after 66 h.Further analysis reveals that these two schemes affect the timing and magnitude of extreme TC intensity values by influencing the evolution of the TC’s warm-core structure.展开更多
Automation and intelligence have become the primary trends in the design of investment casting processes.However,the design of gating and riser systems still lacks precise quantitative evaluation criteria.Numerical si...Automation and intelligence have become the primary trends in the design of investment casting processes.However,the design of gating and riser systems still lacks precise quantitative evaluation criteria.Numerical simulation plays a significant role in quantitatively evaluating current processes and making targeted improvements,but its limitations lie in the inability to dynamically reflect the formation outcomes of castings under varying process conditions,making real-time adjustments to gating and riser designs challenging.In this study,an automated design model for gating and riser systems based on integrated parametric 3D modeling-simulation framework is proposed,which enhances the flexibility and usability of evaluating the casting process by simulation.Firstly,geometric feature extraction technology is employed to obtain the geometric information of the target casting.Based on this information,an automated design framework for gating and riser systems is established,incorporating multiple structural parameters for real-time process control.Subsequently,the simulation results for various structural parameters are analyzed,and the influence of these parameters on casting formation is thoroughly investigated.Finally,the optimal design scheme is generated and validated through experimental verification.Simulation analysis and experimental results show that using a larger gate neck(24 mm in side length) and external risers promotes a more uniform temperature distribution and a more stable flow state,effectively eliminating shrinkage cavities and enhancing process yield by 15%.展开更多
Marine thin plates are susceptible to welding deformation owing to their low structural stiffness.Therefore,the efficient and accurate prediction of welding deformation is essential for improving welding quality.The t...Marine thin plates are susceptible to welding deformation owing to their low structural stiffness.Therefore,the efficient and accurate prediction of welding deformation is essential for improving welding quality.The traditional thermal elastic-plastic finite element method(TEP-FEM)can accurately predict welding deformation.However,its efficiency is low because of the complex nonlinear transient computation,making it difficult to meet the needs of rapid engineering evaluation.To address this challenge,this study proposes an efficient prediction method for welding deformation in marine thin plate butt welds.This method is based on the coupled temperature gradient-thermal strain method(TG-TSM)that integrates inherent strain theory with a shell element finite element model.The proposed method first extracts the distribution pattern and characteristic value of welding-induced inherent strain through TEP-FEM analysis.This strain is then converted into the equivalent thermal load applied to the shell element model for rapid computation.The proposed method-particularly,the gradual temperature gradient-thermal strain method(GTG-TSM)-achieved improved computational efficiency and consistent precision.Furthermore,the proposed method required much less computation time than the traditional TEP-FEM.Thus,this study lays the foundation for future prediction of welding deformation in more complex marine thin plates.展开更多
The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Da...The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.展开更多
Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analys...Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.展开更多
Two international conferences in November 2025 jointly outlined a profound transformation of climate governance.The Committee on Trade and Environment(CTE)of the World Trade Organization(WTO)held a conference in Genev...Two international conferences in November 2025 jointly outlined a profound transformation of climate governance.The Committee on Trade and Environment(CTE)of the World Trade Organization(WTO)held a conference in Geneva,Switzerland,on November 4,where the topic of cooperation on trade-related carbon standards aroused heated discussions.The Leaders'Summit of the 30th Conference of the Parties(COP)to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was held in Belém,Brazil,on November 7.At the meeting,the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets was officially launched with the initial membership of 11 economies including Brazil,China,and the EU.As the world's first transnational alliance on compliant carbon markets,the coalition aims to coordinate carbon pricing mechanisms,emission trading systems and related policies in various countries,and realize the interconnection of global compliance carbon market networks.展开更多
Compared to the well-studied two-dimensional(2D)ferroelectricity,the appearance of 2D antiferroelectricity is much rarer,where local dipoles from the nonequivalent sublattices within 2D monolayers are oppositely orien...Compared to the well-studied two-dimensional(2D)ferroelectricity,the appearance of 2D antiferroelectricity is much rarer,where local dipoles from the nonequivalent sublattices within 2D monolayers are oppositely oriented.Using NbOCl_(2) monolayer with competing ferroelectric(FE)and antiferroelectric(AFE)phases as a 2D material platform,we demonstrate the emergence of intrinsic antiferroelectricity in NbOCl_(2) monolayer under experimentally accessible shear strain,along with new functionality associated with electric field-induced AFE-to-FE phase transition.Specifically,the complex configuration space accommodating FE and AFE phases,polarization switching kinetics,and finite temperature thermodynamic properties of 2D NbOCl_(2) are all accurately predicted by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations based on deep learning interatomic potential model.Moreover,room temperature stable antiferroelectricity with low polarization switching barrier and one-dimensional collinear polarization arrangement is predicted in shear-deformed NbOCl_(2) monolayer.The transition from AFE to FE phase in 2D NbOCl_(2) can be triggered by a low critical electric field,leading to a double polarization–electric(P–E)loop with small hysteresis.A new type of optoelectronic device composed of AFE-NbOCl_(2) is proposed,enabling electric“writing”and nonlinear optical“reading”logical operation with fast operation speed and low power consumption.展开更多
Analysis of the environmental and economic performance of fishing vessels has received limited attention compared with other ship types despite their notable contribution to global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.This st...Analysis of the environmental and economic performance of fishing vessels has received limited attention compared with other ship types despite their notable contribution to global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.This study evaluates the carbon footprint(CF)and economic viability of a liquefied natural gas(LNG)-fueled fishing vessel,using real engine operation simulations to provide precise and dynamic evaluation of fuel consumption and GHG emissions.Operational profiles are obtained through the utilization of onboard monitoring systems,whereas engine performance is simulated using the 1D/0D AVL Boost^(TM)model.Life cycle assessment(LCA)is conducted to quantify the environmental impact,whereas life cycle cost assessment(LCCA)is performed to analyze the profitability of LNG as an alternative fuel.The potential impact of the future fuel price uncertainties is addressed using Monte Carlo simulations.The LCA findings indicate that LNG has the potential to reduce the CF of the vessel by 14%to 16%,in comparison to a diesel power system configuration that serves as the baseline scenario.The LCCA results further indicate that the total cost of an LNG-powered ship is lower by 9.5%-13.8%,depending on the share of LNG and pilot fuels.This finding highlights the potential of LNG to produce considerable environmental benefits while addressing economic challenges under diverse operational and fuel price conditions.展开更多
Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation ...Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation was carried out with fixed external forcing factors （1850 Common Era. （C.E.） conditions） for the past 2000 years. Based on the simulated results, spatio-temporal structures of surface air temperature, precipitation and internal variability, such as the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscilla- tion （AMO）, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, were compared with reanalysis datasets to evaluate the model performance. The results are as follows： 1） CESM showed a good performance in the long-term simulation and no significant climate drift over the past 2000 years; 2） climatological patterns of global and regional climate changes simulated by the CESM were reasonable compared with the reanalysis datasets; and 3） the CESM simulated internal natural variability of the climate system performs very well. The model not only reproduced the periodicity of ENSO, AMO and PDO events but also the 3-8 years vari- ability of the ENSO. The spatial distribution of the CESM-simulated NAO was also similar to the observed. However, because of weaker total irradiation and greenhouse gas concentration forcing in the simulation than the present, the model performances had some differences from the observations. Generally, the CESM showed a good performance in simulating the global climate and internal natu- ral variability of the climate system. This paves the way for other forced climate simulations for the past 2000 years by using the CESM.展开更多
基金Sponsored by 2025 Postgraduate Teaching Reform Project of North China University of Technology。
文摘In the context of global climate change,the increasing frequency of extreme weather events presents significant challenges to urban water systems.This study focuses on the Beijing section of the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal,introduces the SEE model,and develops an integrated“comprehensive water environment simulation model”to systematically examine the path for enhancing its climate resilience.Through the coupling of multiple models(MIKE 11,MIKE URBAN,MIKE 21)and scenario simulations,this study analyzes the response mechanisms of various governance strategies under extreme climate conditions.The research proposes four specific measures to enhance resilience:dual-scenario simulation of climate and governance,identification and reinforcement of weak points in resilience,parametric modeling of ecological restoration interventions,and the development of a“digital twin canal system”.The research findings indicate that the system integration of the SEE model substantially improves the adaptability,endurance,and recovery capacity of canals in response to climate shocks,including heavy rainfall and drought.This provides a scientific foundation and a practical path for achieving long-term resilience and sustainable development of urban water systems.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342228)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2020YFA0608902)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.92358302,and 42242018)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDB0500303).
文摘In recent decades,large ensemble simulation(LENS)or super-large ensemble simulation(SLENS)experiments with climate models,including the simulation of both the historical and future climate,have been increasingly exploited in the fields of climate change,climate variability,climate projection,and beyond.This paper provides an overview of LENS in climate systems.It delves into its definition,initialization,significance,and scientific concerns.Additionally,its development history and relevant theories,methods,and primary fields of application are also reviewed.Conclusions obtained from single-model LENS can be more robust compared with those from ensemble simulations with smaller numbers of members.The interactions among model biases,forced responses,and internal variabilities,which serve as the added value in LENS,are highlighted.Finally,we put forward the future trajectory of LENS with climate or Earth system models(ESMs).Super-large ensemble simulation,high-resolution LENS,LENS employing ESMs,and combining LENS with artificial intelligence,will greatly promote the study of climate and related applications.
基金Key Project of National Social Science Fund,No.23AZD032National Natural Science Foundation of China No.42371258Program of China Scholarship Council No.202306850036。
文摘Low-carbon urban development in China can pave the way to achieve the dualcarbon goal.Exploring how land use changes(LUCs)impact carbon storage(CS)under multi-climate scenarios in different urban agglomerations helps to formulate differential scientific carbon mitigation policies.In this regard,this study constructs an integrated model of SD-PLUS-InVEST to simulate LUCs and CS changes under multi-climate change-based scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585)for three major urban agglomerations(3UAs)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Results demonstrate that land use demand in the 3UAs changes considerably in each scenario.Construction land in the 3UAs remains the most important growth category for the coming decade,but its increase varies in different scenarios.CS in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA)and Mid-Yangtze River Urban Agglomeration(MYRUA)shows a similar downward trend under different scenarios,with scenario SSP245 decreasing the most,to 184,713.526 Tg and 384,459.729 Tg,respectively.CS in the Cheng-Yu(Chengdu-Chongqing)Urban Agglomeration(CYUA)exhibits the opposite upward trend,with scenario SSP126 increasing the most to 153,007.973 Tg.The major cause of CS loss remains the conversion of forest land to construction land in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.However,in the CYUA,the conversion of forest land to cultivated land is the major driver of CS loss under scenario SSP126.In contrast,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land dominantly drives CS loss under scenarios SSP245 and SSP585.The conversion of water body to other land use types is the major cause of CS gain in the YRDUA and MYRUA under different scenarios.At the same time,in the CYUA,the driver is the conversion of cultivated land to forest land.These findings demonstrate the significance of the low-carbon development in urban agglomerations at different development stages at home and abroad.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFF0804704National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42130604,No.42105044+1 种基金Major Projects of the Ministry of Education's Key Research Bases of Humanities and Social Sciences,No.22JJD770020Social Scienceof Northwest University,No.21XNFH007。
文摘In research on the legendary Xia Dynasty of ancient China,the famous archaeological site of Erlitou and its culture are the most debated topics.A key question is whether this ancient culture is truly related to the Xia Dynasty.This study combines traditional literature(Xia Xiao Zheng),archaeological evidence(on alligators),and climate simulation(of autumn rains)to demonstrate that the ancient Chinese phenological calendar,Xia Xiao Zheng,likely originated in the same region as the Erlitou culture.A logical explanation of these findings is that both Xia Xiao Zheng and the Erlitou culture are indeed closely related to the Xia Dynasty.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFB4600902)Shandong Provincial Science Foundation for Outstanding Young Scholars(ZR2024YQ020)。
文摘Wire arc additive manufacturing(WAAM)has emerged as a promising approach for fabricating large-scale components.However,conventional WAAM still faces challenges in optimizing microstructural evolution,minimizing additive-induced defects,and alleviating residual stress and deformation,all of which are critical for enhancing the mechanical performance of the manufactured parts.Integrating interlayer friction stir processing(FSP)into WAAM significantly enhances the quality of deposited materials.However,numerical simulation research focusing on elucidating the associated thermomechanical coupling mechanisms remains insufficient.A comprehensive numerical model was developed to simulate the thermomechanical coupling behavior in friction stir-assisted WAAM.The influence of post-deposition FSP on the coupled thermomechanical response of the WAAM process was analyzed quantitatively.Moreover,the residual stress distribution and deformation behavior under both single-layer and multilayer deposition conditions were investigated.Thermal analysis of different deposition layers in WAAM and friction stir-assisted WAAM was conducted.Results show that subsequent layer deposition induces partial remelting of the previously solidified layer,whereas FSP does not cause such remelting.Furthermore,thermal stress and deformation analysis confirm that interlayer FSP effectively mitigates residual stresses and distortion in WAAM components,thereby improving their structural integrity and mechanical properties.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金The National University of Mongolia,No.P2024-4814The Mongolian Science and Technology Foundation,No.CHN-2022/274The‘Chey Institute for Advanced Studies’International Scholar Exchange Fellowship for the Academic Year of 2025-2026。
文摘This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.
文摘This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy,wind energy,hydropower energy,as well as biomass and bioenergy,positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment.The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,improve air quality,enhance energy security,and support rural development.Case studies from Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits.However,the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers,including outdated infrastructure,fragmented regulatory frameworks,limited investment,and shortages of technical expertise.Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform,stronger regional cooperation,and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors.Modernizing grids,deploying storage systems,and investing in education,research,and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector.Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals,enhance environmental resilience,and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation,investment,and regional collaboration.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52130109)。
文摘Centrifugal casting of ductile iron pipe is a high-temperature,semi-continuous production process.However,conducting laboratory research on the solidification process of centrifugal casting of ductile iron pipe presents significant challenges.In this study,a novel research method was introduced for investigating the solidification process of ductile iron pipe,namely thermal simulation of ductile iron pipe.Comparative research was conducted on the microstructure and properties of the thermal simulation sample and the ductile iron pipe.The findings indicate that the thermal simulation sample and ductile iron pipe exhibit good heat transfer similarity and microstructure similarity.The difference of cooling rate between thermal simulation sample and ductile pipe is less than 0.24℃·s^(-1),and the difference of microstructure content of free cementite,ferrite,and pearlite is less than 5%.The tensile strength of annealed ductile iron pipe is 466 MPa,with an elongation of 16.1%and a Brinell hardness of 156.5 HBW.In comparison,the tensile strength of annealed thermal simulation sample is 482.0 MPa,with an elongation of 15.5%and a Brinell hardness of 159.0 HBW.These results suggest that the thermal simulation experimental research method is both scientific and feasible,offering an objective,reliable,and cost-effective approach to laboratory research on ductile iron pipe.
文摘BACKGROUND Orthopaedic surgical education has traditionally depended on the apprenticeship model of“see one,do one,teach one”.However,reduced operative exposure,stricter work-hour regulations,medicolegal constraints,and patient safety concerns have constrained its practicality.Simulation-based training has become a reliable,safe,and cost-efficient alternative.Dry lab techniques,especially virtual and augmented reality,make up 78%of current dry lab research,whereas wet labs still set the standard for anatomical realism.AIM To evaluate the effectiveness,limitations,and future directions of wet and dry lab simulation in orthopaedic training.METHODS A scoping review was carried out across four databases-PubMed,Cochrane Library,Web of Science,and EBSCOhost-up to 2025.Medical Subject Headings included:"Orthopaedic Education","Wet Lab","Dry Lab","Simulation Training","Virtual Reality",and"Surgical Procedure".Eligible studies focused on orthopaedic or spinal surgical education,employed wet or dry lab techniques,and assessed training effectiveness.Exclusion criteria consisted of non-English publications,abstracts only,non-orthopaedic research,and studies unrelated to simulation.Two reviewers independently screened titles,abstracts,and full texts,resolving discrepancies with a third reviewer.RESULTS From 1851 records,101 studies met inclusion:78 on dry labs,7 on wet labs,4 on both.Virtual reality(VR)simulations were most common,with AI increasingly used for feedback and assessment.Cadaveric training remains the gold standard for accuracy and tactile feedback,while dry labs-especially VR-offer scalability,lower cost(40%-60%savings in five studies),and accessibility for novices.Senior residents prefer wet labs for complex tasks;juniors favour dry labs for basics.Challenges include limited transferability data,lack of standard outcome metrics,and ethical concerns about cadaver use and AI assessment.CONCLUSION Wet and dry labs each have unique strengths in orthopaedic training.A hybrid approach combining both,supported by standardised assessments and outcome studies,is most effective.Future efforts should aim for uniform reporting,integrating new technologies,and policy support for hybrid curricula to enhance skills and patient care.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China[grant number 2023YFC3008004]。
文摘This study introduces a new ocean surface friction velocity scheme and a modified Thompson cloud microphysics parameterization scheme into the CMA-TYM model.The impact of these two parameterization schemes on the prediction of the movement track and intensity of Typhoon Kompasu in 2021 is examined.Additionally,the possible reasons for their effects on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity prediction are analyzed.Statistical results show that both parameterization schemes improve the predictions of Typhoon Kompasu’s track and intensity.The influence on track prediction becomes evident after 60 h of model integration,while the significant positive impact on intensity prediction is observed after 66 h.Further analysis reveals that these two schemes affect the timing and magnitude of extreme TC intensity values by influencing the evolution of the TC’s warm-core structure.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFB3706802)。
文摘Automation and intelligence have become the primary trends in the design of investment casting processes.However,the design of gating and riser systems still lacks precise quantitative evaluation criteria.Numerical simulation plays a significant role in quantitatively evaluating current processes and making targeted improvements,but its limitations lie in the inability to dynamically reflect the formation outcomes of castings under varying process conditions,making real-time adjustments to gating and riser designs challenging.In this study,an automated design model for gating and riser systems based on integrated parametric 3D modeling-simulation framework is proposed,which enhances the flexibility and usability of evaluating the casting process by simulation.Firstly,geometric feature extraction technology is employed to obtain the geometric information of the target casting.Based on this information,an automated design framework for gating and riser systems is established,incorporating multiple structural parameters for real-time process control.Subsequently,the simulation results for various structural parameters are analyzed,and the influence of these parameters on casting formation is thoroughly investigated.Finally,the optimal design scheme is generated and validated through experimental verification.Simulation analysis and experimental results show that using a larger gate neck(24 mm in side length) and external risers promotes a more uniform temperature distribution and a more stable flow state,effectively eliminating shrinkage cavities and enhancing process yield by 15%.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51975138the High-Tech Ship Scientific Research Project from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology under Grant No.CJ05N20the National Defense Basic Research Project under Grant No.JCKY2023604C006.
文摘Marine thin plates are susceptible to welding deformation owing to their low structural stiffness.Therefore,the efficient and accurate prediction of welding deformation is essential for improving welding quality.The traditional thermal elastic-plastic finite element method(TEP-FEM)can accurately predict welding deformation.However,its efficiency is low because of the complex nonlinear transient computation,making it difficult to meet the needs of rapid engineering evaluation.To address this challenge,this study proposes an efficient prediction method for welding deformation in marine thin plate butt welds.This method is based on the coupled temperature gradient-thermal strain method(TG-TSM)that integrates inherent strain theory with a shell element finite element model.The proposed method first extracts the distribution pattern and characteristic value of welding-induced inherent strain through TEP-FEM analysis.This strain is then converted into the equivalent thermal load applied to the shell element model for rapid computation.The proposed method-particularly,the gradual temperature gradient-thermal strain method(GTG-TSM)-achieved improved computational efficiency and consistent precision.Furthermore,the proposed method required much less computation time than the traditional TEP-FEM.Thus,this study lays the foundation for future prediction of welding deformation in more complex marine thin plates.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135).
文摘The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0720203)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805603).
文摘Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.
文摘Two international conferences in November 2025 jointly outlined a profound transformation of climate governance.The Committee on Trade and Environment(CTE)of the World Trade Organization(WTO)held a conference in Geneva,Switzerland,on November 4,where the topic of cooperation on trade-related carbon standards aroused heated discussions.The Leaders'Summit of the 30th Conference of the Parties(COP)to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was held in Belém,Brazil,on November 7.At the meeting,the Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets was officially launched with the initial membership of 11 economies including Brazil,China,and the EU.As the world's first transnational alliance on compliant carbon markets,the coalition aims to coordinate carbon pricing mechanisms,emission trading systems and related policies in various countries,and realize the interconnection of global compliance carbon market networks.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.11574244 for G.Y.G.)the XJTU Research Fund for AI Science (Grant No.2025YXYC011 for G.Y.G.)the Hong Kong Global STEM Professorship Scheme (for X.C.Z.)。
文摘Compared to the well-studied two-dimensional(2D)ferroelectricity,the appearance of 2D antiferroelectricity is much rarer,where local dipoles from the nonequivalent sublattices within 2D monolayers are oppositely oriented.Using NbOCl_(2) monolayer with competing ferroelectric(FE)and antiferroelectric(AFE)phases as a 2D material platform,we demonstrate the emergence of intrinsic antiferroelectricity in NbOCl_(2) monolayer under experimentally accessible shear strain,along with new functionality associated with electric field-induced AFE-to-FE phase transition.Specifically,the complex configuration space accommodating FE and AFE phases,polarization switching kinetics,and finite temperature thermodynamic properties of 2D NbOCl_(2) are all accurately predicted by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations based on deep learning interatomic potential model.Moreover,room temperature stable antiferroelectricity with low polarization switching barrier and one-dimensional collinear polarization arrangement is predicted in shear-deformed NbOCl_(2) monolayer.The transition from AFE to FE phase in 2D NbOCl_(2) can be triggered by a low critical electric field,leading to a double polarization–electric(P–E)loop with small hysteresis.A new type of optoelectronic device composed of AFE-NbOCl_(2) is proposed,enabling electric“writing”and nonlinear optical“reading”logical operation with fast operation speed and low power consumption.
文摘Analysis of the environmental and economic performance of fishing vessels has received limited attention compared with other ship types despite their notable contribution to global greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions.This study evaluates the carbon footprint(CF)and economic viability of a liquefied natural gas(LNG)-fueled fishing vessel,using real engine operation simulations to provide precise and dynamic evaluation of fuel consumption and GHG emissions.Operational profiles are obtained through the utilization of onboard monitoring systems,whereas engine performance is simulated using the 1D/0D AVL Boost^(TM)model.Life cycle assessment(LCA)is conducted to quantify the environmental impact,whereas life cycle cost assessment(LCCA)is performed to analyze the profitability of LNG as an alternative fuel.The potential impact of the future fuel price uncertainties is addressed using Monte Carlo simulations.The LCA findings indicate that LNG has the potential to reduce the CF of the vessel by 14%to 16%,in comparison to a diesel power system configuration that serves as the baseline scenario.The LCCA results further indicate that the total cost of an LNG-powered ship is lower by 9.5%-13.8%,depending on the share of LNG and pilot fuels.This finding highlights the potential of LNG to produce considerable environmental benefits while addressing economic challenges under diverse operational and fuel price conditions.
基金Under the auspices of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB950102)Strategic and Special Frontier Project of Science and Technology of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA05080800)+3 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41371209,41420104002)Special Research Fund for Doctoral Discipline of Higher Education Institutions(No.20133207110015)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.14KJA170002)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.164320H101)
文摘Using the low-resolution （T31, equivalent to 3.75°× 3.75°） version of the Community Earth System Model （CESM） from the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCAR）, a global climate simulation was carried out with fixed external forcing factors （1850 Common Era. （C.E.） conditions） for the past 2000 years. Based on the simulated results, spatio-temporal structures of surface air temperature, precipitation and internal variability, such as the E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscilla- tion （AMO）, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, were compared with reanalysis datasets to evaluate the model performance. The results are as follows： 1） CESM showed a good performance in the long-term simulation and no significant climate drift over the past 2000 years; 2） climatological patterns of global and regional climate changes simulated by the CESM were reasonable compared with the reanalysis datasets; and 3） the CESM simulated internal natural variability of the climate system performs very well. The model not only reproduced the periodicity of ENSO, AMO and PDO events but also the 3-8 years vari- ability of the ENSO. The spatial distribution of the CESM-simulated NAO was also similar to the observed. However, because of weaker total irradiation and greenhouse gas concentration forcing in the simulation than the present, the model performances had some differences from the observations. Generally, the CESM showed a good performance in simulating the global climate and internal natu- ral variability of the climate system. This paves the way for other forced climate simulations for the past 2000 years by using the CESM.
