The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic ...The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.展开更多
基金the Research of New Intelligent Integrated Transport Information System,Technical Plan Project of Binhai New District,Tianjin(No.2015XJR21017)
文摘The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.
文摘针对现有变电站碳排放量预测模型存在考虑指标较少、数据更新慢等问题,本文提出一种基于改进萤火虫算法(improved firefly algorithm,IFA)优化反向传播(back propagation,BP)神经网络的变电站碳排放预测模型。首先,针对萤火虫算法(firefly algorithm,FA)收敛速度过慢以及易陷入局部最优等问题,引入教与学因子,修改萤火虫位置更新过程,以提高群体适应度。其次,引入IFA算法对BP神经网络模型进行超参数寻优,并构建IFA-BP神经网络预测模型。然后,基于CRITIC法筛选预测模型输入层的关键碳排放指标。最后,利用训练集数据训练预测模型,基于训练好的模型对变电站的碳排放量进行预测。仿真结果表明,相较于3种对比方案,本文IFA-BP神经网络预测模型分别在均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)上降低59.61%、15.77%和26.65%,在决定系数(coefficient of determination,R^(2))上提高5.66%、1.46%和1.15%,充分验证了本文所提变电站碳排放预测模型的可行性与优越性。
