构建一类具有VCT(voluntary counseling and testing)意识及媒体报道影响的HIV/AIDS感染动力学模型.首先得到模型解的适定性,并给出模型的基本再生数.其次,借助Hurwitz判别法及Lyapunov函数分析模型的阈值动力学,当R_(0)<1时无病平...构建一类具有VCT(voluntary counseling and testing)意识及媒体报道影响的HIV/AIDS感染动力学模型.首先得到模型解的适定性,并给出模型的基本再生数.其次,借助Hurwitz判别法及Lyapunov函数分析模型的阈值动力学,当R_(0)<1时无病平衡点局部渐近稳定且当R_(0)≤1时全局渐近稳定;当R_(0)>1时,地方病平衡点局部渐近稳定.进一步,结合持续生存理论给出疾病的一致持续性.最后,数值模拟表明随着VCT意识比例的提高,艾滋病患者人数的峰值逐渐降低,而随着信息失效率的增大,艾滋病患者人数的峰值将有所提高.展开更多
Forest losses or gains have long been recognized as critical processes modulating the carbon flux between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Timely, accurate and spatially explicit information on forest disturbance and...Forest losses or gains have long been recognized as critical processes modulating the carbon flux between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Timely, accurate and spatially explicit information on forest disturbance and recovery history is required for assessing the effectiveness of existing forest management. The major objectives of our research focused on testing the mapping efficacy of the vegetation change tracker （VCT） model over a forested area in China. We used a new version of VCT algorithm built upon the Landsat time series stacks （LTSS）. The LTSS consisted of yearly image acquisitions to map forest disturbance history from 1987 to 2011 over the Ning-Zhen Mountains, Jiangsu Province of east China. The LTSS consisted of TM and ETM＋ scenes with different projec- tions due to distinct data sources （Beijing remote sensing ground station and the USGS EROS Center）. The valida- tion results of the disturbance year maps showed that most spatial agreement measures ranged from 70 to 86 %, comparable with the VCT accuracies reported for many places in USA. Very low accuracies were identified in 1995 （38.3 %） and 1992 （56.2 %） in the current analysis. These resulted from the insensitivity of the VCT algorithm to detect low intensity disturbances and also from the mis- registration errors of the image pairs. Major forest distur- bance types existing in our study area were identified as agricultural expansion （39.8 %）, urbanization （24.9 %）, forest management practice （19.3 %）, and mining （12.8 %）. In general, there was a gradual decreasing trend in forest cover throughout this region, caused principally by China＇s economic, demographic, environmental and political policies and decisions, as well as some weather events. While VCT has largely been used to assess long term changes and trends in the USA, it has great potential for assessing landscape level change elsewhere throughout the world.展开更多
文摘构建一类具有VCT(voluntary counseling and testing)意识及媒体报道影响的HIV/AIDS感染动力学模型.首先得到模型解的适定性,并给出模型的基本再生数.其次,借助Hurwitz判别法及Lyapunov函数分析模型的阈值动力学,当R_(0)<1时无病平衡点局部渐近稳定且当R_(0)≤1时全局渐近稳定;当R_(0)>1时,地方病平衡点局部渐近稳定.进一步,结合持续生存理论给出疾病的一致持续性.最后,数值模拟表明随着VCT意识比例的提高,艾滋病患者人数的峰值逐渐降低,而随着信息失效率的增大,艾滋病患者人数的峰值将有所提高.
基金funded by the following grants:the Forestry Public Welfare Project(201304208)the‘‘948’’Project sponsored by the State Forestry Administration(SFA)of China(2014-4-25)+4 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31270587,31100414)the PAPD(Priority Academic Program Development)of Jiangsu provincial universitiesperformed while the lead author held a scholarship sponsored the CSC(China Scholarship Council)(201208320553)at the department of Geographical Sciences,University of Marylandawardee of the 2012 Youth Backbone Teachers Support Plan of Jiangsu Provincethe 2012 Youth Talents Support Plan of Nanjing Forestry University
文摘Forest losses or gains have long been recognized as critical processes modulating the carbon flux between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Timely, accurate and spatially explicit information on forest disturbance and recovery history is required for assessing the effectiveness of existing forest management. The major objectives of our research focused on testing the mapping efficacy of the vegetation change tracker （VCT） model over a forested area in China. We used a new version of VCT algorithm built upon the Landsat time series stacks （LTSS）. The LTSS consisted of yearly image acquisitions to map forest disturbance history from 1987 to 2011 over the Ning-Zhen Mountains, Jiangsu Province of east China. The LTSS consisted of TM and ETM＋ scenes with different projec- tions due to distinct data sources （Beijing remote sensing ground station and the USGS EROS Center）. The valida- tion results of the disturbance year maps showed that most spatial agreement measures ranged from 70 to 86 %, comparable with the VCT accuracies reported for many places in USA. Very low accuracies were identified in 1995 （38.3 %） and 1992 （56.2 %） in the current analysis. These resulted from the insensitivity of the VCT algorithm to detect low intensity disturbances and also from the mis- registration errors of the image pairs. Major forest distur- bance types existing in our study area were identified as agricultural expansion （39.8 %）, urbanization （24.9 %）, forest management practice （19.3 %）, and mining （12.8 %）. In general, there was a gradual decreasing trend in forest cover throughout this region, caused principally by China＇s economic, demographic, environmental and political policies and decisions, as well as some weather events. While VCT has largely been used to assess long term changes and trends in the USA, it has great potential for assessing landscape level change elsewhere throughout the world.
