Predictive maintenance often involves imbalanced multivariate time series datasets with scarce failure events,posing challenges for model training due to the high dimensionality of the data and the need for domain-spe...Predictive maintenance often involves imbalanced multivariate time series datasets with scarce failure events,posing challenges for model training due to the high dimensionality of the data and the need for domain-specific preprocessing,which frequently leads to the development of large and complex models.Inspired by the success of Large Language Models(LLMs),transformer-based foundation models have been developed for time series(TSFM).These models have been proven to reconstruct time series in a zero-shot manner,being able to capture different patterns that effectively characterize time series.This paper proposes the use of TSFM to generate embeddings of the input data space,making them more interpretable for machine learning models.To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach,we trained three classical machine learning algorithms and one neural network using the embeddings generated by the TSFM called Moment for predicting the remaining useful life of aircraft engines.We test the models trained with both the full training dataset and only 10%of the training samples.Our results show that training simple models,such as support vector regressors or neural networks,with embeddings generated by Moment not only accelerates the training process but also enhances performance in few-shot learning scenarios,where data is scarce.This suggests a promising alternative to complex deep learning architectures,particularly in industrial contexts with limited labeled data.展开更多
The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle co...The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle costs.To achieve the reliable,rapid,and accurate RUL prognostics,the balance between accuracy and computational burden deserves more attention.In addition,the uncertainty is intrinsically present in RUL prognostic process.Due to the limitation of the uncertainty quantification,the point-wise prognostics strategy is not trustworthy.A Dual Adaptive Sliding-window Hybrid(DASH)RUL probabilistic prognostics strategy is proposed to tackle these deficiencies.The DASH strategy contains two adaptive mechanisms,the adaptive Long Short-Term Memory-Polynomial Regression(LSTM-PR)hybrid prognostics mechanism and the adaptive sliding-window Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)probabilistic prognostics mechanism.Owing to the dual adaptive mechanisms,the DASH strategy can achieve the balance between accuracy and computational burden and obtain the trustworthy probabilistic prognostics.Based on the degradation dataset of aircraft electromagnetic contactors,the superiority of DASH strategy is validated.In terms of probabilistic,point-wise and integrated prognostics performance,the proposed strategy increases by 66.89%,81.73% and 25.84%on average compared with the baseline methods and their variants.展开更多
Under complex working conditions,accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium-ion batteries is of great significance to ensure the stable operation of energy storage systems,the safe driving of elec...Under complex working conditions,accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium-ion batteries is of great significance to ensure the stable operation of energy storage systems,the safe driving of electric vehicles,and the continuous power supply of electronic devices.This paper systematically describes the RUL prediction methods of lithium-ion batteries and comprehensively summarizes the development status and future trends in this field.First,the battery degradation mechanisms and lightweight data acquisition are analyzed.Secondly,a systematic classification model is constructed for the more widely used lithium battery RUL prediction methods,and the application characteristics and implementation limitations of different methods are analyzed in detail.An innovative classification framework for hybrid methods is proposed based on the depth of physical-data interaction.Then,collaborative modelling of calendar ageing and cyclic ageing is discussed,revealing their coupled effects and corresponding RUL prediction methods.Finally,the technical bottlenecks faced by the current RUL prediction of lithium batteries are identified,potential solutions are proposed,and the future development trends are outlined.展开更多
In view of the insufficient utilization of condition-monitoring information and the improper scheduling often observed in conventional maintenance strategies for photovoltaic(PV)modules,this study proposes a predictiv...In view of the insufficient utilization of condition-monitoring information and the improper scheduling often observed in conventional maintenance strategies for photovoltaic(PV)modules,this study proposes a predictive maintenance(PdM)strategy based on Remaining Useful Life(RUL)estimation.First,a RUL prediction model is established using the Transformer architecture,which enables the effective processing of sequential degradation data.By employing the historical degradation data of PV modules,the proposed model provides accurate forecasts of the remaining useful life,thereby supplying essential inputs for maintenance decision-making.Subsequently,the RUL information obtained from the prediction process is integrated into the optimization of maintenance policies.An opposition-based learning Harris Hawks Optimization(OHHO)algorithm is introduced to jointly optimize two critical parameters:the maintenance threshold L,which specifies the degradation level at which maintenance should be performed,and the recovery factor r,which reflects the extent to which the system performance is restored after maintenance.The objective of this joint optimization is to minimize the overall operation and maintenance cost while maintaining system availability.Finally,simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed PdM strategy.The results indicate that,compared with conventional corrective maintenance(CM)and periodic maintenance(PM)strategies,the RUL-driven PdM approach achieves a reduction in the average cost rate by approximately 20.7%and 17.9%,respectively,thereby demonstrating its potential effectiveness for practical PV maintenance applications.展开更多
Modern industrial environments require uninterrupted machinery operation to maintain productivity standards while ensuring safety and minimizing costs.Conventional maintenance methods,such as reactive maintenance(i.e....Modern industrial environments require uninterrupted machinery operation to maintain productivity standards while ensuring safety and minimizing costs.Conventional maintenance methods,such as reactive maintenance(i.e.,run to failure)or time-based preventive maintenance(i.e.,scheduled servicing),prove ineffective for complex systems with many Internet of Things(IoT)devices and sensors because they fall short in detecting faults at early stages when it is most crucial.This paper presents a predictive maintenance framework based on a hybrid deep learning model that integrates the capabilities of Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)Networks and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs).The framework integrates spatial feature extraction and temporal sequence modeling to accurately classify the health state of industrial equipment into three categories,including Normal,Require Maintenance,and Failed.The framework uses a modular pipeline that includes IoT-enabled data collection along with secure transmission methods to manage cloud storage and provide real-time fault classification.The FD004 subset of the NASA C-MAPSS dataset,containing multivariate sensor readings from aircraft engines,serves as the training and evaluation data for the model.Experimental results show that the LSTM-CNN model outperforms baseline models such as LSTM-SVM and LSTM-RNN,achieving an overall average accuracy of 86.66%,precision of 86.00%,recall of 86.33%,and F1-score of 86.33%.Contrary to the previous LSTM-CNN-based predictive maintenance models that either provide a binary classification or rely on synthetically balanced data,our paper provides a three-class maintenance state(i.e.,Normal,Require Maintenance,and Failed)along with threshold-based labeling that retains the true nature of the degradation.In addition,our work also provides an IoT-to-cloud-based modular architecture for deployment.It offers Computerized Maintenance Management System(CMMS)integration,making our proposed solution not only technically sound but also practical and innovative.The solution achieves real-world industrial deployment readiness through its reliable performance alongside its scalable system design.展开更多
Accurate prediction of remaining useful life serves as a reliable basis for maintenance strategies,effectively reducing both the frequency of failures and associated costs.As a core component of PHM,RUL prediction pla...Accurate prediction of remaining useful life serves as a reliable basis for maintenance strategies,effectively reducing both the frequency of failures and associated costs.As a core component of PHM,RUL prediction plays a crucial role in preventing equipment failures and optimizing maintenance decision-making.However,deep learning models often falter when processing raw,noisy temporal signals,fail to quantify prediction uncertainty,and face challenges in effectively capturing the nonlinear dynamics of equipment degradation.To address these issues,this study proposes a novel deep learning framework.First,a newbidirectional long short-termmemory network integrated with an attention mechanism is designed to enhance temporal feature extraction with improved noise robustness.Second,a probabilistic prediction framework based on kernel density estimation is constructed,incorporating residual connections and stochastic regularization to achieve precise RUL estimation.Finally,extensive experiments on the C-MAPSS dataset demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance in terms of RMSE and Score metrics compared to state-of-the-artmodels.More importantly,the probabilistic output provides a quantifiablemeasure of prediction confidence,which is crucial for risk-informed maintenance planning,enabling managers to optimize maintenance strategies based on a quantifiable understanding of failure risk.展开更多
In recent years,intelligent data-driven prognostic methods have been successfully developed,and good machinery health assessment performance has been achieved through explorations of data from multiple sensors.However...In recent years,intelligent data-driven prognostic methods have been successfully developed,and good machinery health assessment performance has been achieved through explorations of data from multiple sensors.However,existing datafusion prognostic approaches generally rely on the data availability of all sensors,and are vulnerable to potential sensor malfunctions,which are likely to occur in real industries especially for machines in harsh operating environments.In this paper,a deep learning-based remaining useful life(RUL)prediction method is proposed to address the sensor malfunction problem.A global feature extraction scheme is adopted to fully exploit information of different sensors.Adversarial learning is further introduced to extract generalized sensor-invariant features.Through explorations of both global and shared features,promising and robust RUL prediction performance can be achieved by the proposed method in the testing scenarios with sensor malfunctions.The experimental results suggest the proposed approach is well suited for real industrial applications.展开更多
Turbofan engine is a critical aircraft component with complex structure and high-reliability requirements. Effectively predicting the remaining useful life(RUL) of turbofan engines has essential significance for devel...Turbofan engine is a critical aircraft component with complex structure and high-reliability requirements. Effectively predicting the remaining useful life(RUL) of turbofan engines has essential significance for developing maintenance strategies and reducing maintenance costs. Considering the characteristics of large sample size and high dimension of monitoring data, a hybrid health condition prediction model integrating the advantages of autoencoder and bidirectional long short-term memory(BLSTM) is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of RUL. Autoencoder is used as a feature extractor to compress condition monitoring data. BLSTM is designed to capture the bidirectional long-range dependencies of features. A hybrid deep learning prediction model of RUL is constructed. This model has been tested on a benchmark dataset. The results demonstrate that this autoencoder-BLSTM hybrid model has a better prediction accuracy than the existing methods, such as multi-layer perceptron(MLP), support vector regression(SVR), convolutional neural network(CNN) and long short-term memory(LSTM). The proposed model can provide strong support for the health management and maintenance strategy development of turbofan engines.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a n...Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.展开更多
Repair and maintenance costs are the most important factors affecting decision making about substituting agricultural machineries. This decision is made based on the economic life （time） of machineries. In this rese...Repair and maintenance costs are the most important factors affecting decision making about substituting agricultural machineries. This decision is made based on the economic life （time） of machineries. In this research, condition monitoring of MF285 and MF399 tractors was performed using engine oil analysis to find the optimum life time of tractor substitution in comparison with the breakdown maintenance method in Iran. All recorded information about fixed and variable costs were selected as data base and analyzed. Data were divided （classified） based on period of annual working time. Using power regression analysis led to find mathematical models for the optimum time life definition. Cumulative working time （X） was selected as independent and cumulative costs based on definite percent of initial price （Y） was considered as dependent variable and a power law equation was found to express the costs of both MF399 and MF285 tractors as a function of working time. Results showed that in CM method, average of economic life was 13 and 11 years for MF399 and MF285, respectively. It was also found that in BM method, economic life wasl0 and 8.5 years for MF399 and MF285, respectively.展开更多
Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial for the design and management of lithium-ion batteries.Although various machine learning models offer promising predictions,one critical but often overlo...Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial for the design and management of lithium-ion batteries.Although various machine learning models offer promising predictions,one critical but often overlooked challenge is their demand for considerable run-to-failure data for training.Collection of such training data leads to prohibitive testing efforts as the run-to-failure tests can last for years.Here,we propose a semi-supervised representation learning method to enhance prediction accuracy by learning from data without RUL labels.Our approach builds on a sophisticated deep neural network that comprises an encoder and three decoder heads to extract time-dependent representation features from short-term battery operating data regardless of the existence of RUL labels.The approach is validated using three datasets collected from 34 batteries operating under various conditions,encompassing over 19,900 charge and discharge cycles.Our method achieves a root mean squared error(RMSE)within 25 cycles,even when only 1/50 of the training dataset is labelled,representing a reduction of 48%compared to the conventional approach.We also demonstrate the method's robustness with varying numbers of labelled data and different weights assigned to the three decoder heads.The projection of extracted features in low space reveals that our method effectively learns degradation features from unlabelled data.Our approach highlights the promise of utilising semi-supervised learning to reduce the data demand for reliability monitoring of energy devices.展开更多
Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degra...Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degradation information to improve the prediction accuracy of degradation value or health indicator for the next epoch.However,they ignore the cumulative prediction error caused by iterations before reaching the failure point.展开更多
Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of batteries,contingent upon access to ample data.However,the inherent limitations of data availability from traditional or acc...Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of batteries,contingent upon access to ample data.However,the inherent limitations of data availability from traditional or accelerated life testing pose significant challenges.To mitigate the prediction accuracy issues arising from small sample sizes in existing intelligent methods,we introduce a novel data augmentation framework for RUL prediction.This framework harnesses the inherent high coincidence of degradation patterns exhibited by lithium-ion batteries to pinpoint the knee point,a critical juncture marking a significant shift in the degradation trajectory.By focusing on this critical knee point,we leverage the power of normalizing flow models to generate virtual data,effectively augmenting the training sample size.Additionally,we integrate a Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory network,optimized with Box-Cox transformation,to address the inherent uncertainty associated with predictions based on augmented data.This integration allows for a more nuanced understanding of RUL prediction uncertainties,offering valuable confidence intervals.The efficacy and superiority of the proposed framework are validated through extensive experiments on the CS2 dataset from the University of Maryland and the CrFeMnNiCo dataset from our laboratory.The results clearly demonstrate a substantial improvement in the confidence interval of RUL predictions compared to pre-optimization,highlighting the ability of the framework to achieve high-precision RUL predictions even with limited data.展开更多
Transformers have achieved promising results on aeroengine remaining useful life(RUL)prediction,but they still have several limitations:1)Aeroengine domain knowledge,which contains rich information that can reflect th...Transformers have achieved promising results on aeroengine remaining useful life(RUL)prediction,but they still have several limitations:1)Aeroengine domain knowledge,which contains rich information that can reflect the aeroengine’s health statue,is largely ignored in modeling process;2)Traditional transformer ignores the valuable degradation information from other time scales.To address these issues,a novel domain knowledge-augmented multiscale transformer(DKAMFormer)is developed by integrating domain knowledge and multiscale learning to improve the prognostic performance and reliability.First,to obtain rich and professional aeroengine domain knowledge,multiple detail and complete knowledge graphs(KGs)are established based on the working principle of aeroengine,including aeroengine structure,components working characteristics and sensor parameters.Second,the domain knowledge contained in KGs is convert to embedded vector by KG representative learning,which are then utilized to strengthen and enrich the original multidimensional time-series(MTS)monitoring data,aiming to intergrade domain knowledge and monitoring data to train DKAMFormer.Third,to learn rich and complementary degradation features,a novel multiscale time scale-guided self-attention(MTSGSA)mechanism is designed,which maps original MTS into different time-scale feature spaces,and then employs multiple independent self-attention head to extract the degradation features from different time-scale spaces.Finally,through a series of comparative experiments on the public CMAPSS and NCMAPSS datasets and compared with 17 SOTA methods,the developed DKAMFormer significantly improves the RUL prediction performance under multiple operation conditions and degradation modes.展开更多
The remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing is vital in safety and reliability guarantee.In engineering scenarios,only a small amount of bearing performance degradation data can be obtained through acceler...The remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing is vital in safety and reliability guarantee.In engineering scenarios,only a small amount of bearing performance degradation data can be obtained through accelerated life testing.In the absence of lifetime data,the hidden long-term correlation between performance degradation data is challenging to mine effectively,which is the main factor that restricts the prediction precision and engineering application of the residual life prediction method.To address this problem,a novel method based on the multi-layer perception neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory network is proposed.Firstly,a nonlinear health indicator(HI)calculation method based on kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)and exponential weighted moving average(EWMA)is designed.Then,using the raw vibration data and HI,a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network is trained to further calculate the HI of the online bearing in real time.Furthermore,The bidirectional long short-term memory model(BiLSTM)optimized by particle swarm optimization(PSO)is used to mine the time series features of HI and predict the remaining service life.Performance verification experiments and comparative experiments are carried out on the XJTU-SY bearing open dataset.The research results indicate that this method has an excellent ability to predict future HI and remaining life.展开更多
Due to abrupt changes in the intrinsic degradation mechanism or shock from external environmental pressure,degradations of some equipment are characterized by multi-phase and jumps.Meanwhile,equipment is subject to in...Due to abrupt changes in the intrinsic degradation mechanism or shock from external environmental pressure,degradations of some equipment are characterized by multi-phase and jumps.Meanwhile,equipment is subject to inherent fluctuations,limited data and imperfect measurements resulting in aleatory,epistemic and measurement uncertainties of the degradation process.This paper proposes a degradation model and remaining useful life(RUL)prediction method under triple uncertainties for a category of complex equipment with multi-phase degradation and jumps.First,a multi-phase degradation model with random jumps and measurement errors is constructed based on uncertain random processes.Afterward,the analytic expression of RUL prediction considering the heterogeneity is derived by modeling the uncertainty of degradation states at change points under the concept of first hitting time.A stochastic uncertain approach is utilized for the proposed multi-phase degradation model to identify model parameters based on historical data.Furthermore,the implied degradation features are adaptively updated in online stage using similarity-based weighted stochastic uncertain maximum likelihood estimation and Kalman filtering.Finally,the effectiveness of the method is verified by simulation example and practical case.展开更多
In view of the difficulty in determining remaining useful life of plant new variety right in economic analysis, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model to were used to study how to accurately estimate the ...In view of the difficulty in determining remaining useful life of plant new variety right in economic analysis, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model to were used to study how to accurately estimate the remaining useful life of plant new variety right. The results showed that the average life of the granted rice varieties was 10.013 years. With the increase of the age of plant variety rights, the probability of the same residual life Ttreaching x was smaller and smaller, the reliability lower and lower, while the probability of the variety rights becoming invalid became greater. The remaining useful life of a specific granted rice variety was closely related to the demonstration promotion age when the granted rice variety reached its maximum area and the appearance of alternative varieties, and when the demonstration promotion age of the granted rice variety reaching the one with the maximum area, the promotion area would be decreased once a new alternative variety appeared, correspondingly with the shortening of the remaining useful life of the variety. Therefore, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model could describe the remaining useful life＇s time trend, as well as determine the remaining useful life of a concrete plant variety right, clarify the entire life time of varieties rights, and make the economic analysis of plant new varieties rights more accurate and reasonable.展开更多
Thermereconomic Optimum Effective Life Cycle(TOELC)is a new idea.It is used to study the problem of what time to update equipment to achiev good economics.A Mathematical model has been established to study this proble...Thermereconomic Optimum Effective Life Cycle(TOELC)is a new idea.It is used to study the problem of what time to update equipment to achiev good economics.A Mathematical model has been established to study this problem.The TOELC has been applied to calculate the updating of gas turbine blades.It is proved that the result is beneficial.A general idea and a new method developed in this paper will be having some great meanings in practical equipment operation.展开更多
Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life （RUL） estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a criti...Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life （RUL） estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine （RVM） is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery＇s RUL due to its sparse feature and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery＇s RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better performance for RUL estimation.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the fail...Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.展开更多
基金Funded by the Spanish Government and FEDER funds(AEI/FEDER,UE)under grant PID2021-124502OB-C42(PRESECREL)the predoctoral program“Concepción Arenal del Programa de Personal Investigador en formación Predoctoral”funded by Universidad de Cantabria and Cantabria’s Government(BOC 18-10-2021).
文摘Predictive maintenance often involves imbalanced multivariate time series datasets with scarce failure events,posing challenges for model training due to the high dimensionality of the data and the need for domain-specific preprocessing,which frequently leads to the development of large and complex models.Inspired by the success of Large Language Models(LLMs),transformer-based foundation models have been developed for time series(TSFM).These models have been proven to reconstruct time series in a zero-shot manner,being able to capture different patterns that effectively characterize time series.This paper proposes the use of TSFM to generate embeddings of the input data space,making them more interpretable for machine learning models.To evaluate the effectiveness of our approach,we trained three classical machine learning algorithms and one neural network using the embeddings generated by the TSFM called Moment for predicting the remaining useful life of aircraft engines.We test the models trained with both the full training dataset and only 10%of the training samples.Our results show that training simple models,such as support vector regressors or neural networks,with embeddings generated by Moment not only accelerates the training process but also enhances performance in few-shot learning scenarios,where data is scarce.This suggests a promising alternative to complex deep learning architectures,particularly in industrial contexts with limited labeled data.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52272403,52402506)Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi,China(Nos.2022JC-27,2023-JC-QN-0599)。
文摘The reliable,rapid,and accurate Remaining Useful Life(RUL)prognostics of aircraft power supply and distribution system are essential for enhancing the reliability and stability of system and reducing the life-cycle costs.To achieve the reliable,rapid,and accurate RUL prognostics,the balance between accuracy and computational burden deserves more attention.In addition,the uncertainty is intrinsically present in RUL prognostic process.Due to the limitation of the uncertainty quantification,the point-wise prognostics strategy is not trustworthy.A Dual Adaptive Sliding-window Hybrid(DASH)RUL probabilistic prognostics strategy is proposed to tackle these deficiencies.The DASH strategy contains two adaptive mechanisms,the adaptive Long Short-Term Memory-Polynomial Regression(LSTM-PR)hybrid prognostics mechanism and the adaptive sliding-window Kernel Density Estimation(KDE)probabilistic prognostics mechanism.Owing to the dual adaptive mechanisms,the DASH strategy can achieve the balance between accuracy and computational burden and obtain the trustworthy probabilistic prognostics.Based on the degradation dataset of aircraft electromagnetic contactors,the superiority of DASH strategy is validated.In terms of probabilistic,point-wise and integrated prognostics performance,the proposed strategy increases by 66.89%,81.73% and 25.84%on average compared with the baseline methods and their variants.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U23A20651)the Central Government Guides Local Science and Technology Development Foundation(No.2023ZYDF022)+1 种基金the Sichuan Science and Technology Program(2024ZDZX0031)the Open Fund Project of State Key Laboratory of Mining Response and Disaster Prevention and Control in Deep Coal Mines(No.SKLMRDPC23KF19).
文摘Under complex working conditions,accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)of lithium-ion batteries is of great significance to ensure the stable operation of energy storage systems,the safe driving of electric vehicles,and the continuous power supply of electronic devices.This paper systematically describes the RUL prediction methods of lithium-ion batteries and comprehensively summarizes the development status and future trends in this field.First,the battery degradation mechanisms and lightweight data acquisition are analyzed.Secondly,a systematic classification model is constructed for the more widely used lithium battery RUL prediction methods,and the application characteristics and implementation limitations of different methods are analyzed in detail.An innovative classification framework for hybrid methods is proposed based on the depth of physical-data interaction.Then,collaborative modelling of calendar ageing and cyclic ageing is discussed,revealing their coupled effects and corresponding RUL prediction methods.Finally,the technical bottlenecks faced by the current RUL prediction of lithium batteries are identified,potential solutions are proposed,and the future development trends are outlined.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51767017)the Key Research and Development Program of Gansu Province(No.25YFGA032)the Industry Support and Guidance Project for Higher Education Institutions of Gansu Province(No.2022CYZC-22).
文摘In view of the insufficient utilization of condition-monitoring information and the improper scheduling often observed in conventional maintenance strategies for photovoltaic(PV)modules,this study proposes a predictive maintenance(PdM)strategy based on Remaining Useful Life(RUL)estimation.First,a RUL prediction model is established using the Transformer architecture,which enables the effective processing of sequential degradation data.By employing the historical degradation data of PV modules,the proposed model provides accurate forecasts of the remaining useful life,thereby supplying essential inputs for maintenance decision-making.Subsequently,the RUL information obtained from the prediction process is integrated into the optimization of maintenance policies.An opposition-based learning Harris Hawks Optimization(OHHO)algorithm is introduced to jointly optimize two critical parameters:the maintenance threshold L,which specifies the degradation level at which maintenance should be performed,and the recovery factor r,which reflects the extent to which the system performance is restored after maintenance.The objective of this joint optimization is to minimize the overall operation and maintenance cost while maintaining system availability.Finally,simulation experiments are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed PdM strategy.The results indicate that,compared with conventional corrective maintenance(CM)and periodic maintenance(PM)strategies,the RUL-driven PdM approach achieves a reduction in the average cost rate by approximately 20.7%and 17.9%,respectively,thereby demonstrating its potential effectiveness for practical PV maintenance applications.
文摘Modern industrial environments require uninterrupted machinery operation to maintain productivity standards while ensuring safety and minimizing costs.Conventional maintenance methods,such as reactive maintenance(i.e.,run to failure)or time-based preventive maintenance(i.e.,scheduled servicing),prove ineffective for complex systems with many Internet of Things(IoT)devices and sensors because they fall short in detecting faults at early stages when it is most crucial.This paper presents a predictive maintenance framework based on a hybrid deep learning model that integrates the capabilities of Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)Networks and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNNs).The framework integrates spatial feature extraction and temporal sequence modeling to accurately classify the health state of industrial equipment into three categories,including Normal,Require Maintenance,and Failed.The framework uses a modular pipeline that includes IoT-enabled data collection along with secure transmission methods to manage cloud storage and provide real-time fault classification.The FD004 subset of the NASA C-MAPSS dataset,containing multivariate sensor readings from aircraft engines,serves as the training and evaluation data for the model.Experimental results show that the LSTM-CNN model outperforms baseline models such as LSTM-SVM and LSTM-RNN,achieving an overall average accuracy of 86.66%,precision of 86.00%,recall of 86.33%,and F1-score of 86.33%.Contrary to the previous LSTM-CNN-based predictive maintenance models that either provide a binary classification or rely on synthetically balanced data,our paper provides a three-class maintenance state(i.e.,Normal,Require Maintenance,and Failed)along with threshold-based labeling that retains the true nature of the degradation.In addition,our work also provides an IoT-to-cloud-based modular architecture for deployment.It offers Computerized Maintenance Management System(CMMS)integration,making our proposed solution not only technically sound but also practical and innovative.The solution achieves real-world industrial deployment readiness through its reliable performance alongside its scalable system design.
基金funded by scientific research projects under Grant JY2024B011.
文摘Accurate prediction of remaining useful life serves as a reliable basis for maintenance strategies,effectively reducing both the frequency of failures and associated costs.As a core component of PHM,RUL prediction plays a crucial role in preventing equipment failures and optimizing maintenance decision-making.However,deep learning models often falter when processing raw,noisy temporal signals,fail to quantify prediction uncertainty,and face challenges in effectively capturing the nonlinear dynamics of equipment degradation.To address these issues,this study proposes a novel deep learning framework.First,a newbidirectional long short-termmemory network integrated with an attention mechanism is designed to enhance temporal feature extraction with improved noise robustness.Second,a probabilistic prediction framework based on kernel density estimation is constructed,incorporating residual connections and stochastic regularization to achieve precise RUL estimation.Finally,extensive experiments on the C-MAPSS dataset demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance in terms of RMSE and Score metrics compared to state-of-the-artmodels.More importantly,the probabilistic output provides a quantifiablemeasure of prediction confidence,which is crucial for risk-informed maintenance planning,enabling managers to optimize maintenance strategies based on a quantifiable understanding of failure risk.
基金supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(52025056)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(xzy012022062)。
文摘In recent years,intelligent data-driven prognostic methods have been successfully developed,and good machinery health assessment performance has been achieved through explorations of data from multiple sensors.However,existing datafusion prognostic approaches generally rely on the data availability of all sensors,and are vulnerable to potential sensor malfunctions,which are likely to occur in real industries especially for machines in harsh operating environments.In this paper,a deep learning-based remaining useful life(RUL)prediction method is proposed to address the sensor malfunction problem.A global feature extraction scheme is adopted to fully exploit information of different sensors.Adversarial learning is further introduced to extract generalized sensor-invariant features.Through explorations of both global and shared features,promising and robust RUL prediction performance can be achieved by the proposed method in the testing scenarios with sensor malfunctions.The experimental results suggest the proposed approach is well suited for real industrial applications.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.51505288 and 51875359)the TBT Project of Shanghai(No.18TBT003)the Project of Shanghai Telecom(No.17C1ZA0069SH301)
文摘Turbofan engine is a critical aircraft component with complex structure and high-reliability requirements. Effectively predicting the remaining useful life(RUL) of turbofan engines has essential significance for developing maintenance strategies and reducing maintenance costs. Considering the characteristics of large sample size and high dimension of monitoring data, a hybrid health condition prediction model integrating the advantages of autoencoder and bidirectional long short-term memory(BLSTM) is proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of RUL. Autoencoder is used as a feature extractor to compress condition monitoring data. BLSTM is designed to capture the bidirectional long-range dependencies of features. A hybrid deep learning prediction model of RUL is constructed. This model has been tested on a benchmark dataset. The results demonstrate that this autoencoder-BLSTM hybrid model has a better prediction accuracy than the existing methods, such as multi-layer perceptron(MLP), support vector regression(SVR), convolutional neural network(CNN) and long short-term memory(LSTM). The proposed model can provide strong support for the health management and maintenance strategy development of turbofan engines.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922089)。
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.
文摘Repair and maintenance costs are the most important factors affecting decision making about substituting agricultural machineries. This decision is made based on the economic life （time） of machineries. In this research, condition monitoring of MF285 and MF399 tractors was performed using engine oil analysis to find the optimum life time of tractor substitution in comparison with the breakdown maintenance method in Iran. All recorded information about fixed and variable costs were selected as data base and analyzed. Data were divided （classified） based on period of annual working time. Using power regression analysis led to find mathematical models for the optimum time life definition. Cumulative working time （X） was selected as independent and cumulative costs based on definite percent of initial price （Y） was considered as dependent variable and a power law equation was found to express the costs of both MF399 and MF285 tractors as a function of working time. Results showed that in CM method, average of economic life was 13 and 11 years for MF399 and MF285, respectively. It was also found that in BM method, economic life wasl0 and 8.5 years for MF399 and MF285, respectively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52207229)the Key Research and Development Program of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China(No.2024BEE02003)+1 种基金the financial support from the AEGiS Research Grant 2024,University of Wollongong(No.R6254)the financial support from the China Scholarship Council(No.202207550010).
文摘Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life(RUL)is crucial for the design and management of lithium-ion batteries.Although various machine learning models offer promising predictions,one critical but often overlooked challenge is their demand for considerable run-to-failure data for training.Collection of such training data leads to prohibitive testing efforts as the run-to-failure tests can last for years.Here,we propose a semi-supervised representation learning method to enhance prediction accuracy by learning from data without RUL labels.Our approach builds on a sophisticated deep neural network that comprises an encoder and three decoder heads to extract time-dependent representation features from short-term battery operating data regardless of the existence of RUL labels.The approach is validated using three datasets collected from 34 batteries operating under various conditions,encompassing over 19,900 charge and discharge cycles.Our method achieves a root mean squared error(RMSE)within 25 cycles,even when only 1/50 of the training dataset is labelled,representing a reduction of 48%compared to the conventional approach.We also demonstrate the method's robustness with varying numbers of labelled data and different weights assigned to the three decoder heads.The projection of extracted features in low space reveals that our method effectively learns degradation features from unlabelled data.Our approach highlights the promise of utilising semi-supervised learning to reduce the data demand for reliability monitoring of energy devices.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2034209)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Chongqing(cstc2021jcyj-bsh X0047)+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2022CDJJMRH-008)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62203075)
文摘Dear Editor,This letter focuses on the remaining useful life(RUL)prediction task under limited labeled samples.Existing machine-learning-based RUL prediction methods for this task usually pay attention to mining degradation information to improve the prediction accuracy of degradation value or health indicator for the next epoch.However,they ignore the cumulative prediction error caused by iterations before reaching the failure point.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.62227814,52205040,22279070,and U21A20170)the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi(2023-JC-QN-0140)+3 种基金the Young Talent Fund of Xi’an Association for Science and Technology(Grant No.959202313096)the Key Projects of the Shaanxi Province Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2025JC-QYXQ-038)the Open Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Fluid Power and Mechatronic Systems(Grant No.GZKF-202430)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2024YFB3311204)。
文摘Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful life(RUL)of batteries,contingent upon access to ample data.However,the inherent limitations of data availability from traditional or accelerated life testing pose significant challenges.To mitigate the prediction accuracy issues arising from small sample sizes in existing intelligent methods,we introduce a novel data augmentation framework for RUL prediction.This framework harnesses the inherent high coincidence of degradation patterns exhibited by lithium-ion batteries to pinpoint the knee point,a critical juncture marking a significant shift in the degradation trajectory.By focusing on this critical knee point,we leverage the power of normalizing flow models to generate virtual data,effectively augmenting the training sample size.Additionally,we integrate a Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory network,optimized with Box-Cox transformation,to address the inherent uncertainty associated with predictions based on augmented data.This integration allows for a more nuanced understanding of RUL prediction uncertainties,offering valuable confidence intervals.The efficacy and superiority of the proposed framework are validated through extensive experiments on the CS2 dataset from the University of Maryland and the CrFeMnNiCo dataset from our laboratory.The results clearly demonstrate a substantial improvement in the confidence interval of RUL predictions compared to pre-optimization,highlighting the ability of the framework to achieve high-precision RUL predictions even with limited data.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52305570)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Key Support Project(U2133202)+2 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2022M720955)Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(LBH-Z22187)Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Funding Project of Heilongjiang Province(LJYXL2022-011).
文摘Transformers have achieved promising results on aeroengine remaining useful life(RUL)prediction,but they still have several limitations:1)Aeroengine domain knowledge,which contains rich information that can reflect the aeroengine’s health statue,is largely ignored in modeling process;2)Traditional transformer ignores the valuable degradation information from other time scales.To address these issues,a novel domain knowledge-augmented multiscale transformer(DKAMFormer)is developed by integrating domain knowledge and multiscale learning to improve the prognostic performance and reliability.First,to obtain rich and professional aeroengine domain knowledge,multiple detail and complete knowledge graphs(KGs)are established based on the working principle of aeroengine,including aeroengine structure,components working characteristics and sensor parameters.Second,the domain knowledge contained in KGs is convert to embedded vector by KG representative learning,which are then utilized to strengthen and enrich the original multidimensional time-series(MTS)monitoring data,aiming to intergrade domain knowledge and monitoring data to train DKAMFormer.Third,to learn rich and complementary degradation features,a novel multiscale time scale-guided self-attention(MTSGSA)mechanism is designed,which maps original MTS into different time-scale feature spaces,and then employs multiple independent self-attention head to extract the degradation features from different time-scale spaces.Finally,through a series of comparative experiments on the public CMAPSS and NCMAPSS datasets and compared with 17 SOTA methods,the developed DKAMFormer significantly improves the RUL prediction performance under multiple operation conditions and degradation modes.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project(Grant Number 2023YFB3709601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Numbers 62373215,62373219,62073193)+2 种基金the Key Research and Development Plan of Shandong Province(Grant Numbers 2021CXGC010204,2022CXGC020902)the Fundamental Research Funds of Shandong University(Grant Number 2021JCG008)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant Number ZR2023MF100).
文摘The remaining useful life prediction of rolling bearing is vital in safety and reliability guarantee.In engineering scenarios,only a small amount of bearing performance degradation data can be obtained through accelerated life testing.In the absence of lifetime data,the hidden long-term correlation between performance degradation data is challenging to mine effectively,which is the main factor that restricts the prediction precision and engineering application of the residual life prediction method.To address this problem,a novel method based on the multi-layer perception neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory network is proposed.Firstly,a nonlinear health indicator(HI)calculation method based on kernel principal component analysis(KPCA)and exponential weighted moving average(EWMA)is designed.Then,using the raw vibration data and HI,a multi-layer perceptron(MLP)neural network is trained to further calculate the HI of the online bearing in real time.Furthermore,The bidirectional long short-term memory model(BiLSTM)optimized by particle swarm optimization(PSO)is used to mine the time series features of HI and predict the remaining service life.Performance verification experiments and comparative experiments are carried out on the XJTU-SY bearing open dataset.The research results indicate that this method has an excellent ability to predict future HI and remaining life.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFB3301200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(U21A20483,62373040,62203042).
文摘Due to abrupt changes in the intrinsic degradation mechanism or shock from external environmental pressure,degradations of some equipment are characterized by multi-phase and jumps.Meanwhile,equipment is subject to inherent fluctuations,limited data and imperfect measurements resulting in aleatory,epistemic and measurement uncertainties of the degradation process.This paper proposes a degradation model and remaining useful life(RUL)prediction method under triple uncertainties for a category of complex equipment with multi-phase degradation and jumps.First,a multi-phase degradation model with random jumps and measurement errors is constructed based on uncertain random processes.Afterward,the analytic expression of RUL prediction considering the heterogeneity is derived by modeling the uncertainty of degradation states at change points under the concept of first hitting time.A stochastic uncertain approach is utilized for the proposed multi-phase degradation model to identify model parameters based on historical data.Furthermore,the implied degradation features are adaptively updated in online stage using similarity-based weighted stochastic uncertain maximum likelihood estimation and Kalman filtering.Finally,the effectiveness of the method is verified by simulation example and practical case.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71273264)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Welfare Scientific Research Institutes of China(2015-14)~~
文摘In view of the difficulty in determining remaining useful life of plant new variety right in economic analysis, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model to were used to study how to accurately estimate the remaining useful life of plant new variety right. The results showed that the average life of the granted rice varieties was 10.013 years. With the increase of the age of plant variety rights, the probability of the same residual life Ttreaching x was smaller and smaller, the reliability lower and lower, while the probability of the variety rights becoming invalid became greater. The remaining useful life of a specific granted rice variety was closely related to the demonstration promotion age when the granted rice variety reached its maximum area and the appearance of alternative varieties, and when the demonstration promotion age of the granted rice variety reaching the one with the maximum area, the promotion area would be decreased once a new alternative variety appeared, correspondingly with the shortening of the remaining useful life of the variety. Therefore, Weibull Survival Analysis Method and Gaussian Model could describe the remaining useful life＇s time trend, as well as determine the remaining useful life of a concrete plant variety right, clarify the entire life time of varieties rights, and make the economic analysis of plant new varieties rights more accurate and reasonable.
基金This paper is supported by The Science Foundation of China Aviation
文摘Thermereconomic Optimum Effective Life Cycle(TOELC)is a new idea.It is used to study the problem of what time to update equipment to achiev good economics.A Mathematical model has been established to study this problem.The TOELC has been applied to calculate the updating of gas turbine blades.It is proved that the result is beneficial.A general idea and a new method developed in this paper will be having some great meanings in practical equipment operation.
基金co-supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 61301205 and 61571160)the Natural Scientific Research Innovation Foundation at Harbin Institute of Technology (No. HIT.NSRIF.2014017)
文摘Lithium-ion batteries have become the third-generation space batteries and are widely utilized in a series of spacecraft. Remaining Useful Life （RUL） estimation is essential to a spacecraft as the battery is a critical part and determines the lifetime and reliability. The Relevance Vector Machine （RVM） is a data-driven algorithm used to estimate a battery＇s RUL due to its sparse feature and uncertainty management capability. Especially, some of the regressive cases indicate that the RVM can obtain a better short-term prediction performance rather than long-term prediction. As a nonlinear kernel learning algorithm, the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors are fixed once the RVM training is conducted. Moreover, the RVM can be simply influenced by the noise with the training data. Thus, this work proposes an iterative updated approach to improve the long-term prediction performance for a battery＇s RUL prediction. Firstly, when a new estimator is output by the RVM, the Kalman filter is applied to optimize this estimator with a physical degradation model. Then, this optimized estimator is added into the training set as an on-line sample, the RVM model is re-trained, and the coefficient matrix and relevance vectors can be dynamically adjusted to make next iterative prediction. Experimental results with a commercial battery test data set and a satellite battery data set both indicate that the proposed method can achieve a better performance for RUL estimation.
基金Projects(51475462,61174030,61473094,61374126)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) estimation based on condition monitoring data is central to condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the Wiener process based RUL estimation, the randomness of the failure threshold has not been studied thoroughly. In this work, by using the truncated normal distribution to model random failure threshold(RFT), an analytical and closed-form RUL distribution based on the current observed data was derived considering the posterior distribution of the drift parameter. Then, the Bayesian method was used to update the prior estimation of failure threshold. To solve the uncertainty of the censored in situ data of failure threshold, the expectation maximization(EM) algorithm is used to calculate the posteriori estimation of failure threshold. Numerical examples show that considering the randomness of the failure threshold and updating the prior information of RFT could improve the accuracy of real time RUL estimation.
