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An ocean current inversion accuracy analysis based on a Doppler spectrum model 被引量:1
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作者 BAO Qingliu ZHANG Youguang +1 位作者 LIN Mingsen GONG Peng 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第9期101-107,共7页
Microwave remote sensing is one of the most useful methods for observing the ocean parameters. The Doppler frequency or interferometric phase of the radar echoes can be used for an ocean surface current speed retrieva... Microwave remote sensing is one of the most useful methods for observing the ocean parameters. The Doppler frequency or interferometric phase of the radar echoes can be used for an ocean surface current speed retrieval,which is widely used in spaceborne and airborne radars. While the effect of the ocean currents and waves is interactional. It is impossible to retrieve the ocean surface current speed from Doppler frequency shift directly. In order to study the relationship between the ocean surface current speed and the Doppler frequency shift, a numerical ocean surface Doppler spectrum model is established and validated with a reference. The input parameters of ocean Doppler spectrum include an ocean wave elevation model, a directional distribution function, and wind speed and direction. The suitable ocean wave elevation spectrum and the directional distribution function are selected by comparing the ocean Doppler spectrum in C band with an empirical geophysical model function(CDOP). What is more, the error sensitivities of ocean surface current speed to the wind speed and direction are analyzed. All these simulations are in Ku band. The simulation results show that the ocean surface current speed error is sensitive to the wind speed and direction errors. With VV polarization, the ocean surface current speed error is about 0.15 m/s when the wind speed error is 2 m/s, and the ocean surface current speed error is smaller than 0.3 m/s when the wind direction error is within 20° in the cross wind direction. 展开更多
关键词 Doppler spectrum model ocean surface current speed parameter sensitivity analysis measurement error
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Slope wavenumber spectrum models of capillary and capillary-gravity waves 被引量:1
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作者 贾永君 张杰 王岩峰 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第2期359-363,共5页
Capillary and capillary-gravity waves possess a random character, and the slope wavenumber spectra of them can be used to represent mean distributions of wave energy with respect to spatial scale of variability. But s... Capillary and capillary-gravity waves possess a random character, and the slope wavenumber spectra of them can be used to represent mean distributions of wave energy with respect to spatial scale of variability. But simple and practical models of the slope wavenumber spectra have not been put forward so far. In this article, we address the accurate definition of the slope wavenumber spectra of water surface capillary and capillary-gravity waves. By combining the existing slope wavenumber models and using the dispersion relation of water surface waves, we derive the slope wavenumber spectrum models of capillary and capillary-gravity waves. Simultaneously, by using the slope wavenumber models, the dependence of the slope wavenumber spectrum on wind speed is analyzed using data obtained in an experiment which was performed in a laboratory wind wave tank. Generally speaking, the slope wavenumber spectra are influenced profoundly by the wind speed above water surface. The slope wavenumber spectrum increases with wind speed obviously and do not cross each other for different wind speeds. But, for the same wind speed, the slope wavenumber spectra are essentially identical, even though the capillary and capillary-gravity waves are excited at different times and locations. Furthermore, the slope wavenumber spectra obtained from the models agree quite well with experimental results as regards both the values and the shape of the curve. 展开更多
关键词 capillary and capillary-gravity waves slope wavenumber spectrum model wind speeddependence
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Implementing a multispecies size-spectrum model in a datapoor ecosystem 被引量:5
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作者 ZHANG Chongliang CHEN Yong +1 位作者 THOMPSON Katherine REN Yiping 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第4期63-73,共11页
Multispecies ecological models have been used for predicting the effects of fishing activity and evaluating the performance of management strategies. Size-spectrum models are one type of physiologically-structured eco... Multispecies ecological models have been used for predicting the effects of fishing activity and evaluating the performance of management strategies. Size-spectrum models are one type of physiologically-structured ecological model that provide a feasible approach to describing fish communities in terms of individual dietary variation and ontogenetic niche shift. Despite the potential of ecological models in improving our understanding of ecosystems, their application is usually limited for data-poor fisheries. As a first step in implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management(EBFM), this study built a size-spectrum model for the fish community in the Haizhou Bay, China. We describe data collection procedures and model parameterization to facilitate the implementation of such size-spectrum models for future studies of data-poor ecosystems. The effects of fishing on the ecosystem were exemplified with a range of fishing effort and were monitored with a set of ecological indicators. Total community biomass, biodiversity index, W-statistic, LFI(Large fish index), Mean W(mean body weight) and Slope(slope of community size spectra) showed a strong non-linear pattern in response to fishing pressure, and largest fishing effort did not generate the most drastic responses in certain scenarios. We emphasize the value and feasibility of developing size-spectrum models to capture ecological dynamics and suggest limitations as well as potential for model improvement. This study aims to promote a wide use of this type of model in support of EBFM. 展开更多
关键词 size-spectrum model trophic interaction data-poor model parameterization Haizhou Bay
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PREDICTION OF THE RHEOLOGICAL PROPERTIES OF STAR—TYPE BRANCHED POLYMER SOLUTIONS BY MEANS OF THE FIXED SPECTRUM MODEL
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作者 吴其晔 《Chinese Journal of Polymer Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1995年第2期180-184,共5页
The Rouse-Zimm model with slippage was improved and the basic parameters of modelwere modified to explain the rheological properties of star-type branched polymersolutions. The theoretical results show good agreement ... The Rouse-Zimm model with slippage was improved and the basic parameters of modelwere modified to explain the rheological properties of star-type branched polymersolutions. The theoretical results show good agreement with experimental data. 展开更多
关键词 Rheological properties Fixed spectrum model Star-type branched polymer solutions
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A new semi-empirical spectrum model for complex steady shear viscosity of complex fluids
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作者 Shuxin Huang Chuanjing Lu Yurun Fan 《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第6期897-901,共5页
A semi-empirical spectrum model is proposed to describe the experimental data of the steady shear properties of a Shengli waxy crude oil near its gel point, where sophisticated structural effects become apparent due t... A semi-empirical spectrum model is proposed to describe the experimental data of the steady shear properties of a Shengli waxy crude oil near its gel point, where sophisticated structural effects become apparent due to the existence of waxy crystals in the crude oil. The model, consisting of a time spectrum, can well fit the steady shear viscosities of the waxy crude oil over the whole experimental shear rate region from 10-4 to 102 s- 1. Two other experiments on complex fluids reported recently in the literature are also well described by this model demonstrating the applicability and accuracy of the model. 展开更多
关键词 Sophisticated steady shear viscosityWaxy crude oil . Simple spectrum model
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ON MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS TO A LOW-SPECTRUM MODEL OF OCEANIC CURRENT DRIVEN BY THE BOUNDARY FORCE——THE BIMODALITY OF THE KUROSHIO SOUTH OF JAPAN 被引量:1
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作者 董昌明 陈水明 +1 位作者 张庆华 袁业立 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1996年第2期113-120,共8页
This low-spectrun medel study on the multiple solutions to a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic ocanic cur-rent equation shows that they depend on the combination of Ro, Re, λ and ε, that the bimedaity of theKuroshio depen... This low-spectrun medel study on the multiple solutions to a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic ocanic cur-rent equation shows that they depend on the combination of Ro, Re, λ and ε, that the bimedaity of theKuroshio depends strongly on the nonlinear effect represented by Ro and λ, and that its occurrenceprobability is reduced by the dissipation represented by Re and ε. The stability of solutions is discussed indetail with Hurwitz’s theory. 展开更多
关键词 multiple solutions low-spectrum model stability Hurwitz’s theory
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Fractal and Multifractal Modeling of Hydrothermal Mineral Deposit Spectrum: Application to Gold Deposits in Abitibi Area, Ontario, Canada 被引量:13
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作者 Cheng Qiuming Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Department of Geography, York University, Toronto, Canada M3J1P3 Faculty of Earth Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074 《Journal of China University of Geosciences》 SCIE CSCD 2003年第3期199-206,共8页
A number of fractal/multifractal methods are introduced for quantifying the mineral deposit spectrum which include a number-size model, grade-tonnage model, power spectrum model, multifractal model and an eigenvalue s... A number of fractal/multifractal methods are introduced for quantifying the mineral deposit spectrum which include a number-size model, grade-tonnage model, power spectrum model, multifractal model and an eigenvalue spectrum model. The first two models characterize mineral deposits spectra based on relationships among the measures of mineral deposits. These include the number of deposits, size of deposits, concentration and volume of mineral deposits. The last three methods that deal with the spatial-temporal spectra of mineral deposit studies are all expected to be popularized in near future. A case study of hydrothermal gold deposits from the Abitibi area, a world-class mineral district, is used to demonstrate the principle as well as the applications of methods proposed in this paper. It has been shown that fractal and multifractal models are generally applicable to modeling of mineral deposits and occurrences. Clusters of mineral deposits were identified by several methods including the power spectral analysis, singularity analysis and the eigenvalue analysis. These clusters contain most of the known mineral deposits in the Timmins and Kirkland Lake camps. 展开更多
关键词 mineralization spectrum POWER-spectrum multifractal spectrum eigenvalue spectrum and GIS modeling
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AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL AND POWER SPECTRUM CHARATERISTICS OF CURRENT SIGNAL IN HIGH FREQUENCY GROUP PULSE MICRO-ELECTROCHEMICAL MACHINING 被引量:3
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作者 TANG Xinglun ZHANG Zhijing +1 位作者 ZHOU Zhaoying YANG Xiaodong 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第2期260-264,共5页
The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing acros... The identification of the inter-electrode gap size in the high frequency group pulse micro-electrochemical machining (HGPECM) is mainly discussed. The auto-regressive(AR) model of group pulse current flowing across the cathode and the anode are created under different situations with different processing parameters and inter-electrode gap size. The AR model based on the current signals indicates that the order of the AR model is obviously different relating to the different processing conditions and the inter-electrode gap size; Moreover, it is different about the stability of the dynamic system, i.e. the white noise response of the Green's function of the dynamic system is diverse. In addition, power spectrum method is used in the analysis of the dynamic time series about the current signals with different inter-electrode gap size, the results show that there exists a strongest power spectrum peak, characteristic power spectrum(CPS), to the current signals related to the different inter-electrode gap size in the range of 0~5 kHz. Therefore, the CPS of current signals can implement the identification of the inter-electrode gap. 展开更多
关键词 Electrochemical machining Inter-electrode gap Autoregressive(AR) model Power spectrum
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Identification of the unknown shielding parameters with gammaray spectrum using a derivative-free inverse radiation transport model 被引量:3
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作者 Ying Chen Lian-Ping Zhang +4 位作者 Sa Xiao Lun-Qiang Wu Shan-Li Yang Bing-Yuan Xia Jian-Min Hu 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第5期75-81,共7页
Identifying the unknown geometric and material information of a multi-shield object by analyzing the radiation signature measurements is always an important problem in national and global security. In order to identif... Identifying the unknown geometric and material information of a multi-shield object by analyzing the radiation signature measurements is always an important problem in national and global security. In order to identify the unknown shielding layer thicknesses of a source/shield system with gamma-ray spectra, we have developed a derivative-free inverse radiation transport model based on a differential evolution algorithm with global and local neighbourhoods(IRT-DEGL). In the present paper, the IRT-DEGL model is further extended for estimating the unknown thicknesses with random initial guesses and material mass densities of multi-shielding layers as well as their combinations. Using the detected gamma-ray spectra,the illustration of inverse studies is implemented and the main influence factors for inverse results are also analyzed. 展开更多
关键词 INVERSE problem DERIVATIVE-FREE INVERSE RADIATION transport model GAMMA-RAY spectrum Multishielding layers
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Research on modeling method of continuous spectrum water quality online detection based on random forest
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作者 LI Wen HAO Sijia +1 位作者 ZHOU Hao LIU Ying 《Optoelectronics Letters》 EI 2023年第2期95-100,共6页
It's common to use the method of continuous spectroscopy in water quality testing. But there're some problems with it. For example, the scanning results have a large number of nonlinear signals, and the covari... It's common to use the method of continuous spectroscopy in water quality testing. But there're some problems with it. For example, the scanning results have a large number of nonlinear signals, and the covariance between variables is serious, which can lead to a decrease in the model prediction accuracy. In this paper, the standard solutions of nitrate nitrogen(NO_(3)-N) and nitrite nitrogen(NO_(2)-N) were used as the subject to be tested, and the data of the scanned waves and absorbance were obtained by use of spectral detector. The data were processed by noise reduction first and then the random forest(RF) algorithm was adopted to establish the regression relationship between concentration and absorbance. For comparison, partial least squares(PLS) and support vector machine(SVM) algorithm models were also established. For the same given data, the three reverse models can make the projection of the concentration respectively. The experimental results show that the RF algorithm predicts NO_(2)-N concentrations significantly better than the SVM algorithm and PLS algorithm. This proves that the RF algorithm has good prediction ability in spectral water quality detection because of its high model accuracy and better adaptability, which could be a reference for similar research on continuous spectral water quality online detection. 展开更多
关键词 modeling method of continuous spectrum water quality online detection random forest
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Analysis of prompt fission neutron spectrum and multiplicity for ^(237)Np(n, f) in the frame of multi-modal Los Alamos model 被引量:1
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作者 郑娜 丁毅 +2 位作者 钟春来 陈金象 樊铁栓 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2009年第4期1413-1420,共8页
The improved version of Los Alamos model with the multi-modal fission approach is used to analyse the prompt fission neutron spectrum and multiplicity for the neutron-induced fission of 237Np. The spectra of neutrons ... The improved version of Los Alamos model with the multi-modal fission approach is used to analyse the prompt fission neutron spectrum and multiplicity for the neutron-induced fission of 237Np. The spectra of neutrons emitted from fragments for the three most dominant fission modes (standard Ⅰ, standard Ⅱ and superlong) are calculated separately and the total spectrum is synthesized. The multi-modal parameters contained in the spectrum model are determined on the basis of experimental data of fission fragment mass distributions. The calculated total prompt fission neutron spectrum and multiplicity are better agreement with the experimental data than those obtained from the conventional treatment of the Los Alamos model. 展开更多
关键词 237Np(n f) prompt neutron spectrum neutron multiplicity multi-modal model LosAlamos model
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On Evaluating the Efficacy of Predictive Models for Cognitive Radio Spectrum Availability in Nigeria
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作者 Samuel Okegbile Adeniran Oluwaranti Segun Aina 《Wireless Engineering and Technology》 2018年第3期49-65,共17页
In order to avoid the undesired interference with the activities of the primary users in cognitive radio networks, the secondary users are required to be able to predict the behavior of the primary users so as to leav... In order to avoid the undesired interference with the activities of the primary users in cognitive radio networks, the secondary users are required to be able to predict the behavior of the primary users so as to leave the channel before the arrival of such licensed owner of the spectrum. While a number of existing literatures on cognitive radio spectrum prediction employ the use of propagation curves for predicting the spectrum holes otherwise known as TV white space, these models are built based on measurements conducted in regions that are different from Nigeria, suitability in terms of usage may therefore vary due to environmental factors and terrain profile. This work evaluates the efficacy of the developed model in predicting the cognitive spectrum availability in Nigeria. Models capable of predicting spectrum occupancy in the time domain using discrete-time two-state Markov chain with an appropriate Duty Cycle (DC) model and also a modified m-bell shaped exponential equation were formulated. The result obtained in all cases considered shows that the formulated models are appropriate to be used in any environment if the parameters were carefully extracted from the data. This work has also demonstrated that the accuracy of Markov chain models depends on the level of usage of a spectrum under consideration and may therefore not give desirable results when employed in some other spectrum. 展开更多
关键词 COGNITIVE Device Predictive model spectrum Management spectrum OCCUPANCY TV WHITE Space
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Neurodevelopmental Timing of Ethanol Exposure May Contribute to Observed Heterogeneity of Behavioral Deficits in a Mouse Model of Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) 被引量:1
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作者 Katarzyna Mantha Morgan Kleiber Shiva Singh 《Journal of Behavioral and Brain Science》 2013年第1期85-99,共15页
Maternal drinking during pregnancy can result in a wide spectrum of cognitive and behavioral abnormalities termed fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). The heterogeneity observed in FASD-related phenotypes can be a... Maternal drinking during pregnancy can result in a wide spectrum of cognitive and behavioral abnormalities termed fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). The heterogeneity observed in FASD-related phenotypes can be attributed to a number of environmental and genetic factors;however, ethanol dose and timing of exposure may have significant influences. Here, we report the behavioral effects of acute, binge-like ethanol exposure at three neurodevelopmental times corresponding to the first, second, and third trimester of human development in C57BL/6J mice. Results show that developmental ethanol exposure consistently delays the development of basic motor skill reflexes and coordination as well as impairs spatial learning and memory. Observed changes in activity and anxiety-related behaviors, however, appear to be dependent on timing of alcohol exposure. The variability in behaviors between different treatment models suggests that these may be useful in evaluating the mechanisms disrupted by ethanol at specific neurodevelopmental times. The results provide further evidence that, regardless of developmental stage, the developing brain is acutely sensitive to alcohol exposure. 展开更多
关键词 Fetal Alcohol spectrum Disorder (FASD) ETHANOL Behavior NEURODEVELOPMENT MOUSE model C57BL/6J
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Structure of Essential Spectra and Discrete Spectrum of the Energy Operator of Six-Electron Systems in the Hubbard Model. First Quintet and First Singlet States
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作者 S. M. Tashpulatov 《Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics》 2022年第11期3424-3461,共38页
We consider the energy operator of six-electron systems in the Hubbard model and investigate the structure of essential spectra and discrete spectrum of the system in the first quintet and first singlet states in the ... We consider the energy operator of six-electron systems in the Hubbard model and investigate the structure of essential spectra and discrete spectrum of the system in the first quintet and first singlet states in the v-dimensional lattice. 展开更多
关键词 Hubbard model Essential spectrum Discrete spectrum Six Electron Systems Octet State Singlet State Quintet State
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A new spatial coherence model and analytical coeffi cients for multi-support response spectrum combination 被引量:2
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作者 王君杰 陈虎 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2007年第3期225-235,共11页
In this paper, a new spatial coherence model of seismic ground motions is proposed by a fitting procedure. The analytical expressions of modal combination (correlation) coefficients of structural response are develo... In this paper, a new spatial coherence model of seismic ground motions is proposed by a fitting procedure. The analytical expressions of modal combination (correlation) coefficients of structural response are developed for multi-support seismic excitations. The coefficients from both the numerical integration and analytical solutions are compared to verify the accuracy of the solutions. It is shown that the analytical expressions of numerical modal combination coefficients are of high accuracy. The results of random responses of an example bridge show that the analytical modal combination coefficients developed in this paper are accurate enough to meet the requirements needed in practice. In addition, the computational efficiency of the analytical solutions of the modal combination coefficients is demonstrated by the response computation of the example bridge. It is found that the time required for the structural response analysis by using the analytical modal combination coefficients is less than 1/20 of that using numerical integral methods. 展开更多
关键词 multi-support seismic excitations spatial coherence model modal combination coefficients computational efficiency power spectrum density
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The Structure of Essential Spectra and Discrete Spectrum of Three-Electron Systems in the Impurity Hubbard Model—Quartet State 被引量:3
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作者 S. M. Tashpulatov 《Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics》 2021年第6期1391-1421,共31页
We consider a three-electron system in the Impurity Hubbard model with a coupling between nearest-neighbors. Our research aim consists of studying the structure of essential spectrum and discrete spectra of the energy... We consider a three-electron system in the Impurity Hubbard model with a coupling between nearest-neighbors. Our research aim consists of studying the structure of essential spectrum and discrete spectra of the energy operator of three-electron systems in the impurity Hubbard model in the quartet state of the system in a <em>v</em>-dimensional lattice. We have reduced the study of the spectrum of the three-electron quartet state operator in the impurity Hubbard model to the study of the spectrum of a simpler operator. We proved the essential spectra of the three-electron systems in the Impurity Hubbard model in the quartet state is the union of no more than six segments, and the discrete spectrum of the system is consists of no more than four eigenvalues. 展开更多
关键词 Essential spectrum Discrete spectrum Three-Electron System Local Impurity States Impurity Hubbard model Quartet State Doublet State
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Spectrum模型在江西省艾滋病疫情估计与预测中的应用 被引量:5
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作者 卢飞豹 廖清华 +3 位作者 胡国良 付俊 郭巍 王璐 《中国艾滋病性病》 CAS 北大核心 2015年第3期220-222,共3页
目的应用Spectrum模型,对江西省艾滋病(AIDS)流行现状、发展趋势及防治效果进行估计,为艾滋病防治提供依据。方法依据江西省人口学数据、艾滋病流行病学资料、行为干预资料数据,利用Spectrum疫情模型,对江西省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测... 目的应用Spectrum模型,对江西省艾滋病(AIDS)流行现状、发展趋势及防治效果进行估计,为艾滋病防治提供依据。方法依据江西省人口学数据、艾滋病流行病学资料、行为干预资料数据,利用Spectrum疫情模型,对江西省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测。结果估计2010年全省现存活的艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者/AIDS病人8736例,新发HIV感染1031例。现存活者中,属低风险异性恋者2471例(28.29%),高风险异性恋者2137例(24.46%),男男性行为者1938例(22.18%),注射吸毒者1849例(21.17%),中风险异性恋者341例(3.90%)。未来五年中,江西省艾滋病疫情呈上升趋势,其中男男性行为人群艾滋病疫情上升趋势较明显。同时,江西省未来五年实施优化干预措施,可减少新发感染768例。结论江西省属艾滋病低流行省份,未来应将控制同性性接触传播作为干预重点。 展开更多
关键词 艾滋病 spectrum模型 疫情估计 预测
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EPP/Spectrum模型在凉山州艾滋病疫情估计中的应用 被引量:2
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作者 刘伦皓 刘莉 +3 位作者 余刚 王忠红 胡莹 袁风顺 《中国预防医学杂志》 CAS CSCD 2020年第8期891-895,共5页
目的通过艾滋病疫情估计来评估凉山州艾滋病疫情状况及趋势,为凉山州艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法利用EPP/Spectrum模型,将凉山州艾滋病病毒(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)感染者较集中的布拖县、昭觉县、美姑县、越西县四个区县... 目的通过艾滋病疫情估计来评估凉山州艾滋病疫情状况及趋势,为凉山州艾滋病防治工作提供依据。方法利用EPP/Spectrum模型,将凉山州艾滋病病毒(human immunodeficiency virus,HIV)感染者较集中的布拖县、昭觉县、美姑县、越西县四个区县作为一个亚流行区,分别拟合凉山州及四个区县的各类人群的流行曲线,对凉山州15岁以上人群HIV感染率、新发感染率及趋势进行估计。结果估计凉山州15岁以上人群HIV感染率呈逐年上升,2019年底凉山州HIV感染率为1.32%(95%CI:1.18%~1.50%),四个区县为3.87%;15岁以上人群新发感染率在2017年前逐年上升。估计注射吸毒新发感染病例数从2010年3010例下降到2019年的1340例;非婚非商业异性传播新发感染病例数从2010年1180例上升到2019年的2798例。注射吸毒人群感染率在2008年后上升速度变慢,非婚非商业异性传播的一般人群感染率加速上升。结论注射吸毒传播的新发感染病例数持续下降,与凉山州加强艾滋病防治协同公安部门开展禁毒防艾工作有关,但非婚非商业异性传播已成为凉山州艾滋病疫情的主要传播途径,在一般人群中需要进一步加强等有针对性的健康教育措施,提高人群防艾意识。 展开更多
关键词 EPP/spectrum模型 艾滋病 疫情评估
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估计和预测艾滋病疫情的Spectrum/EPP模型研究进展 被引量:6
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作者 刘珏 刘民 +2 位作者 陶丽丽 陈红光 王品泽 《中国艾滋病性病》 CAS 2014年第4期298-302,共5页
估计与预测软件包(EPP)模型和Spectrum模型,是常用的适用于广泛流行和聚集性流行地区的艾滋病疫情估计和预测的模型。2011年后,联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)将EPP模型与Spectrum模型软件合并(Spectrum/EPP模型),界面亲和,流程简化,并新... 估计与预测软件包(EPP)模型和Spectrum模型,是常用的适用于广泛流行和聚集性流行地区的艾滋病疫情估计和预测的模型。2011年后,联合国艾滋病规划署(UNAIDS)将EPP模型与Spectrum模型软件合并(Spectrum/EPP模型),界面亲和,流程简化,并新增了三种曲线拟合模型,改进和更新了模型内部参数等,使其疫情估计和预测更灵活,适用于不同的国家或地区。文章主要介绍Spectrum/EPP模型的结构原理、所需指标、产出结果、操作过程、适用范围、注意事项、优缺点等,为模型的应用提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 艾滋病 spectrum Epp模型 疫情估计 疫情预测
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应用Spectrum模型估计和预测黑龙江省艾滋病疫情 被引量:3
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作者 佟雪 李一 +3 位作者 马静 于兰 闫红梅 惠珊 《中国公共卫生管理》 2018年第2期280-282,285,共4页
目的应用Spectrun模型对黑龙江省艾滋病疫情及发展趋势预测,为艾滋病防治策略制定提供科学依据和可靠数据。方法利用Spectrum模型,将全人群分成六类亚人群,结合黑龙江省人口学数据、艾滋病流行参数和监测数据、抗病毒治疗及预防母婴传... 目的应用Spectrun模型对黑龙江省艾滋病疫情及发展趋势预测,为艾滋病防治策略制定提供科学依据和可靠数据。方法利用Spectrum模型,将全人群分成六类亚人群,结合黑龙江省人口学数据、艾滋病流行参数和监测数据、抗病毒治疗及预防母婴传授数据对黑龙江省艾滋病疫情进行估计和预测。结果经Spectrun模型估计得出,黑龙江省艾滋病疫情仍呈逐年上升趋势,估计2015-2020年黑龙江省15岁以上人群HIV感染率分别为0.031%、0.033%、0.036%、0.038%、0.040%和0.042%;传播途径主要以同性传播为主。高危人群中暗娼人群(FSW)和配偶人群感染率呈下降趋势,男男同性恋人群(MSM)和嫖客人群的感染率呈上升趋势。结论经Spectrun模型预测得出,黑龙江省疫情仍属于艾滋病低流行省份,MSM将成为主要传播人群,说明黑龙江省针对此类人群采取的干预措施成果显著,使越来越多的MSM人群感染者被发现,但今后还需要进一步加强这类人群的监测和干预。 展开更多
关键词 spectrum模型 估计 预测 艾滋病
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