Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the...Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.展开更多
In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Cente...In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center System Model,BCC;SM1.1(m). Forecast skills during the different ENSO phases are analyzed and it is shown that the ENSO forecasts appear to be more challenging during the developing phase, compared to the decay phase. During ENSO development, the SST prediction errors are significantly negative and cover a large area in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, thus limiting the model skill in predicting the intensity of El Nino. The large-scale SST errors, at their early stage, are generated gradually in terms of negative anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature over the central-western equatorial Pacific,featuring an error evolutionary process similar to that of El Nino decay and the transition to the La Nina growth phase.Meanwhile, for short lead-time ENSO predictions, the initial wind errors begin to play an increasing role, particularly in linking with the subsurface heat content errors in the central-western Pacific. By comparing the multiple samples of initial fields in the model, it is clearly found that poor SST predictions of the Nino-3.4 region are largely due to contributions of the initial errors in certain specific locations in the tropical Pacific. This demonstrates that those sensitive areas for initial fields in ENSO prediction are fairly consistent in both previous ideal experiments and our operational predictions,indicating the need for targeted observations to further improve operational forecasts of ENSO.展开更多
This study used National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to confirm that the variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) has pronounced intraseasonal oscillations ...This study used National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to confirm that the variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) has pronounced intraseasonal oscillations characterized by quasi standing waves; and was aimed to document how intraseasonal time scale SST formed and developed in the SCS. The results derived from the composite analysis indicated the existence of a local low level atmospheric dynamic forcing system over the SCS. The main formation mechanism of SST intraseasonal oscillation is the low level rotational atmospheric circulation forcing over the SCS on intraseasonal time scales and the solar radiation variations caused by cloud amount changes.展开更多
The authors examine the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST) biases simulated by a Flexible Regional Ocean Atmosphere Land System(FROALS) model.The regional coupled model exhibits pronounced cold SST biases in a ...The authors examine the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST) biases simulated by a Flexible Regional Ocean Atmosphere Land System(FROALS) model.The regional coupled model exhibits pronounced cold SST biases in a large portion of the Indian Ocean warm pool.Negative biases in the net surface heat fluxes are evident in the model,leading to the cold biases of the SST.Further analysis indicates that the negative biases in the net surface heat fluxes are mainly contributed by the biases of sensible heat and latent heat flux.Near-surface meteorological variables that could contribute to the SST biases are also examined.It is found that the biases of sensible heat and latent heat flux are caused by the colder and dryer near-surface air in the model.展开更多
By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature（SST） variability in the Kuroshio Extension（KE） ...By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature（SST） variability in the Kuroshio Extension（KE） region is investigated. And its linkage with the Aleutian Low（AL） activity changes is also discussed. The results find that the KE SST variability exhibits the significant ~6 a and ~10 a oscillations with obvious interdecadal change. The ~6 a oscillation is mainly detected during 1930–1950, which is largely impacted by the anomalous surface heat flux forcing and Ekman heat transport associated with the AL intensity variation. The ~10 a oscillation is most evident after the 1980s, which is predominantly triggered by the AL north-south shift through the bridge of oceanic Rossby waves.展开更多
The effects of sea surface temperature（SST） data assimilation in two regional ocean modeling systems were examined for the Yellow Sea（YS）. The SST data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Anal...The effects of sea surface temperature（SST） data assimilation in two regional ocean modeling systems were examined for the Yellow Sea（YS）. The SST data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis（OSTIA） were assimilated. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center（NMEFC） modeling system uses the ensemble optimal interpolation method for ocean data assimilation and the Kunsan National University（KNU） modeling system uses the ensemble Kalman filter. Without data assimilation, the NMEFC modeling system was better in simulating the subsurface temperature while the KNU modeling system was better in simulating SST. The disparity between both modeling systems might be related to differences in calculating the surface heat flux, horizontal grid spacing, and atmospheric forcing data. The data assimilation reduced the root mean square error（RMSE） of the SST from 1.78°C（1.46°C） to 1.30°C（1.21°C） for the NMEFC（KNU） modeling system when the simulated temperature was compared to Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature（OISST） SST dataset. A comparison with the buoy SST data indicated a 41%（31%） decrease in the SST error for the NMEFC（KNU） modeling system by the data assimilation. In both data assimilative systems, the RMSE of the temperature was less than 1.5°C in the upper 20 m and approximately 3.1°C in the lower layer in October. In contrast, it was less than 1.0°C throughout the water column in February. This study suggests that assimilations of the observed temperature profiles are necessary in order to correct the lower layer temperature during the stratified season and an ocean modeling system with small grid spacing and optimal data assimilation method is preferable to ensure accurate predictions of the coastal ocean in the YS.展开更多
RANS是工程中常用的CFD数值模拟模型,文中基于该模型对SUBOFF裸艇体的水动力特性开展数值模拟研究.传统SST(shear stress transport model)湍流模型采用了线性涡黏假设,难以描述复杂流场的各向异性流动现象.另外,传统SST模型对分离点的...RANS是工程中常用的CFD数值模拟模型,文中基于该模型对SUBOFF裸艇体的水动力特性开展数值模拟研究.传统SST(shear stress transport model)湍流模型采用了线性涡黏假设,难以描述复杂流场的各向异性流动现象.另外,传统SST模型对分离点的预测还可能出现延迟,使阻力预测值偏小.针对传统SST湍流模型的缺陷,提出使用各向异性的ASST(anisotropic shear stress transport)湍流模型及其再附修正来研究SUBOFF裸艇体的数值模拟计算问题,并对SST、SST(Reattach)、ASST及ASST(Reattach)4种湍流模型进行了比较研究.结果表明,相较于传统SST模型,ASST模型在预测SUBOFF裸艇的阻力上具有更高精确度,再附修正可有效克服阻力预测值偏小的问题,ASST(Reattach)模型在4种湍流模型中阻力预报性能最优.另外,针对不同站位的轴向及径向平均速度分布特性问题,4种湍流模型均能够取得与模型试验一致的数值模拟结果.展开更多
The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)....The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.展开更多
Steady State Tokamak （SST-1） vacuum vessel baking as well as baking of the first wall components of SST-1 are essential to plasma physics experiments. Under a refurbishment spectrum of SST-1, the nitrogen gas heatin...Steady State Tokamak （SST-1） vacuum vessel baking as well as baking of the first wall components of SST-1 are essential to plasma physics experiments. Under a refurbishment spectrum of SST-1, the nitrogen gas heating and supply system has been fully refurbished. The SST-1 vacuum vessel consists of ultra-high vacuum （UHV） compatible eight modules and eight sectors. Rectangular baking channels are embedded on each of them. Similarly, the SST-1 plasma facing components （PFC） are comprised of modular graphite diverters and movable graphite based limiters. The nitrogen gas heating and supply system would bake the plasma facing components at 350 ~C and the SST-1 vacuum vessel at 150 ~C over an extended duration so as to remove water vapour and other absorbed gases. An efficient PLC based baking facility has been developed and implemented for monitoring and control purposes. This paper presents functional and operational aspects of a SST-1 nitrogen gas heating and supply system. Some of the experimental results obtained during the baking of SST-1 vacuum modules and sectors are also presented here.展开更多
A prior observational study indicated an asymmetric link between sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea and ENSO during austral summer.Specifically,El Niño is associated with a dipolar SST anomaly pattern,...A prior observational study indicated an asymmetric link between sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea and ENSO during austral summer.Specifically,El Niño is associated with a dipolar SST anomaly pattern,featuring warming in the northwest and cooling in the southeast,whereas La Niña corresponds to basin-scale warming.This study employs the experiments of coupled models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)to assess ENSO’s impact on Tasman Sea SST.While all 15 models capture the observed dipolar SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the Tasman Sea during El Niño years,only 7 models capture the basin-scale warmth in the Tasman Sea during La Niña years.Consequently,the models are bifurcated into two groups:group-one models yield one physically reasonable asymmetric connection as observed,including the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport,especially the Ekman meridional transport anomalies induced by zonal wind stress driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea.However,due to abnormal responses to ENSO and systematic biases in model simulations,including jet and storm tracks,oceanic heat fluxes,ocean currents,and SST,the group-two models fail to reproduce the asymmetric connection between the Tasman Sea and ENSO.This study not only validates the observational asymmetric connection of SSTAs in the Tasman Sea with respect to the two opposite ENSO phases,but also provides evidence and clues to reduce the bias in group-two models.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number-ber 2019QZKK0103]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42293294]the China Meteorological Admin-istration Climate Change Special Program[grant number QBZ202303]。
文摘Using multi-source reanalysis data,this study examines the relationship between the tropical Pacific-Atlantic SST Dipole Mode(TPA-DM)and summer precipitation in North China(NCSP)on the interannual timescale during the period of 1979-2022.The results show that the TPA-DM,the dominant pattern of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic regions,exhibits a significant negative correlation with NCSP.The positive phase of TPA-DM induces subsidence over the Maritime Continent through a zonal circulation pattern,which initiates a Pacific-Japan-like wave train along the East Asian coast.The circulation anomalies lead to moisture deficits and convergence subsidence over North China,leading to below-normal rainfall.Further analysis reveals that cooler SST in the Southern Tropical Atlantic facilitates the persistence of the TPA-DM by stimulating the anomalous Walker circulation associated with wind-evaporation-SST-convection feedback.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring,Early WarningPrevention of Major Natural Disaster(Grant No.2018YFC1506000)the China National Science(Grant Nos.41606019,41975094,and 41706016)。
文摘In this study, the predictability of the El Nino-South Oscillation(ENSO) in an operational prediction model from the perspective of initial errors is diagnosed using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center System Model,BCC;SM1.1(m). Forecast skills during the different ENSO phases are analyzed and it is shown that the ENSO forecasts appear to be more challenging during the developing phase, compared to the decay phase. During ENSO development, the SST prediction errors are significantly negative and cover a large area in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, thus limiting the model skill in predicting the intensity of El Nino. The large-scale SST errors, at their early stage, are generated gradually in terms of negative anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature over the central-western equatorial Pacific,featuring an error evolutionary process similar to that of El Nino decay and the transition to the La Nina growth phase.Meanwhile, for short lead-time ENSO predictions, the initial wind errors begin to play an increasing role, particularly in linking with the subsurface heat content errors in the central-western Pacific. By comparing the multiple samples of initial fields in the model, it is clearly found that poor SST predictions of the Nino-3.4 region are largely due to contributions of the initial errors in certain specific locations in the tropical Pacific. This demonstrates that those sensitive areas for initial fields in ENSO prediction are fairly consistent in both previous ideal experiments and our operational predictions,indicating the need for targeted observations to further improve operational forecasts of ENSO.
文摘This study used National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data to confirm that the variance of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS) has pronounced intraseasonal oscillations characterized by quasi standing waves; and was aimed to document how intraseasonal time scale SST formed and developed in the SCS. The results derived from the composite analysis indicated the existence of a local low level atmospheric dynamic forcing system over the SCS. The main formation mechanism of SST intraseasonal oscillation is the low level rotational atmospheric circulation forcing over the SCS on intraseasonal time scales and the solar radiation variations caused by cloud amount changes.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program,Grant No.2010AA012304)
文摘The authors examine the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature(SST) biases simulated by a Flexible Regional Ocean Atmosphere Land System(FROALS) model.The regional coupled model exhibits pronounced cold SST biases in a large portion of the Indian Ocean warm pool.Negative biases in the net surface heat fluxes are evident in the model,leading to the cold biases of the SST.Further analysis indicates that the negative biases in the net surface heat fluxes are mainly contributed by the biases of sensible heat and latent heat flux.Near-surface meteorological variables that could contribute to the SST biases are also examined.It is found that the biases of sensible heat and latent heat flux are caused by the colder and dryer near-surface air in the model.
基金The National Basic Research Program(973 program)of China under contract No.2013CB956203the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.41375063
文摘By utilizing multiple datasets from various sources available for the last 100 years, the existence for the interdecadal change of the winter sea surface temperature（SST） variability in the Kuroshio Extension（KE） region is investigated. And its linkage with the Aleutian Low（AL） activity changes is also discussed. The results find that the KE SST variability exhibits the significant ~6 a and ~10 a oscillations with obvious interdecadal change. The ~6 a oscillation is mainly detected during 1930–1950, which is largely impacted by the anomalous surface heat flux forcing and Ekman heat transport associated with the AL intensity variation. The ~10 a oscillation is most evident after the 1980s, which is predominantly triggered by the AL north-south shift through the bridge of oceanic Rossby waves.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China under contract Nos 2016YFC1401800 and 2016YFC1401605the Cooperation on the Development of Basic Technologies for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea Operational Oceanographic System(YOOS)+5 种基金the project of Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System(KOOS),Phase 2 funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheriesthe National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41076011,41206023 and 41222038the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China under contract No.2011CB403606the Public Science and Technology Research Funds Project of Ocean under contract No.201205018the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA1102010403Producing map of ocean currents for the neighboring seas of Korea funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries under contract No.2033-307-210-13
文摘The effects of sea surface temperature（SST） data assimilation in two regional ocean modeling systems were examined for the Yellow Sea（YS）. The SST data from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis（OSTIA） were assimilated. The National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center（NMEFC） modeling system uses the ensemble optimal interpolation method for ocean data assimilation and the Kunsan National University（KNU） modeling system uses the ensemble Kalman filter. Without data assimilation, the NMEFC modeling system was better in simulating the subsurface temperature while the KNU modeling system was better in simulating SST. The disparity between both modeling systems might be related to differences in calculating the surface heat flux, horizontal grid spacing, and atmospheric forcing data. The data assimilation reduced the root mean square error（RMSE） of the SST from 1.78°C（1.46°C） to 1.30°C（1.21°C） for the NMEFC（KNU） modeling system when the simulated temperature was compared to Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature（OISST） SST dataset. A comparison with the buoy SST data indicated a 41%（31%） decrease in the SST error for the NMEFC（KNU） modeling system by the data assimilation. In both data assimilative systems, the RMSE of the temperature was less than 1.5°C in the upper 20 m and approximately 3.1°C in the lower layer in October. In contrast, it was less than 1.0°C throughout the water column in February. This study suggests that assimilations of the observed temperature profiles are necessary in order to correct the lower layer temperature during the stratified season and an ocean modeling system with small grid spacing and optimal data assimilation method is preferable to ensure accurate predictions of the coastal ocean in the YS.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers U2242205 and 41830969]the S&T Development Fund of CAMS [grant number 2023KJ036]the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of CAMS [grant number 2023Z018]。
文摘The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of ENSO.Based on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual mean.The magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity analysis.Results reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.
文摘Steady State Tokamak （SST-1） vacuum vessel baking as well as baking of the first wall components of SST-1 are essential to plasma physics experiments. Under a refurbishment spectrum of SST-1, the nitrogen gas heating and supply system has been fully refurbished. The SST-1 vacuum vessel consists of ultra-high vacuum （UHV） compatible eight modules and eight sectors. Rectangular baking channels are embedded on each of them. Similarly, the SST-1 plasma facing components （PFC） are comprised of modular graphite diverters and movable graphite based limiters. The nitrogen gas heating and supply system would bake the plasma facing components at 350 ~C and the SST-1 vacuum vessel at 150 ~C over an extended duration so as to remove water vapour and other absorbed gases. An efficient PLC based baking facility has been developed and implemented for monitoring and control purposes. This paper presents functional and operational aspects of a SST-1 nitrogen gas heating and supply system. Some of the experimental results obtained during the baking of SST-1 vacuum modules and sectors are also presented here.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFF0805101)the National Natural Science Founda-tion of China(Grant Nos.42376250 and 42405068).
文摘A prior observational study indicated an asymmetric link between sea surface temperature(SST)in the Tasman Sea and ENSO during austral summer.Specifically,El Niño is associated with a dipolar SST anomaly pattern,featuring warming in the northwest and cooling in the southeast,whereas La Niña corresponds to basin-scale warming.This study employs the experiments of coupled models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)to assess ENSO’s impact on Tasman Sea SST.While all 15 models capture the observed dipolar SST anomalies(SSTAs)in the Tasman Sea during El Niño years,only 7 models capture the basin-scale warmth in the Tasman Sea during La Niña years.Consequently,the models are bifurcated into two groups:group-one models yield one physically reasonable asymmetric connection as observed,including the asymmetry of oceanic heat transport,especially the Ekman meridional transport anomalies induced by zonal wind stress driven by the asymmetric atmospheric circulation over the Tasman Sea.However,due to abnormal responses to ENSO and systematic biases in model simulations,including jet and storm tracks,oceanic heat fluxes,ocean currents,and SST,the group-two models fail to reproduce the asymmetric connection between the Tasman Sea and ENSO.This study not only validates the observational asymmetric connection of SSTAs in the Tasman Sea with respect to the two opposite ENSO phases,but also provides evidence and clues to reduce the bias in group-two models.
