Ecological risk is a dynamic reflection of ecosystem stability and harmonious social development.The role played by risk identification and evolutionary trend prediction as mediators between ecological risk management...Ecological risk is a dynamic reflection of ecosystem stability and harmonious social development.The role played by risk identification and evolutionary trend prediction as mediators between ecological risk management and prevention is complex.However,current studies have difficulty identifying where,when,and how ecological risk evolves.Here,we constructed a double evaluation index system of ecological risk source hazard and ecological risk receptor loss degree to quantitatively evaluate and simulate ecological risk in the upper Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)(UYR).Then,we adopted the normal cloud model to identify the ecological risk level at different scales in the UYR.Finally,we leveraged set pair analysis to reveal the future evolution trend of ecological risk in the UYR.The following conclusions were drawn.1)From 2015 to 2018,the ecological risk in the UYR exhibited significant spatial aggregation characteristics,with a spatial distribution pattern of“high in the west,low in the east”.The risk value increased from[0,0.28]to[0,0.32],an increase of 12.49%.2)The ecological risk level of the UYR in 2015 and 2018 was in a high-alert state,but the risk value showed a downward annual trend.The comprehensive ecological risk value decreased from 0.5295 to 0.5135.3)The ecological risk of 67%of the cities in the UYR will decrease in the future,and will increase in 33%of the cities.4)The probability of geological disasters was the most significant ecological risk source in the UYR.Ecosystem service value significantly impacted ecological risk receptors loss degree in the UYR.展开更多
Complex anthropogenic activities and geographic conditions in the Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)Basin have led to significant spatial variations in dissolved heavy metal contents,posing potential threats to aquatic ecosystem...Complex anthropogenic activities and geographic conditions in the Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)Basin have led to significant spatial variations in dissolved heavy metal contents,posing potential threats to aquatic ecosystems.To investigate the ecological risks and drivers of dissolved heavy metals in the Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)Basin,physicochemical indicators,heavy metals,and nutrient salts were collected and measured,and the ecological risk was evaluated by using a tiered ecological risk assessment and structural equation model(SEM)for driver analysis.The results revealed that the mean values of As,Pb,Cr,Zn,Ni,Cd,and Cu were lower than those of Class Ⅲ,among which the coefficients of variation of Cd and Pb were greater than 100%,which were affected by human activities.Tiered ecological risk assessment,ranging from deterministic point estimation methods to probabilistic hazard quotient evaluation approaches,demonstrated that Zn poses a potential ecological risk to aquatic organisms and is the key contaminant driving ecological risk in the study area,whereas As,Pb,Cr,Ni,Cd,and Cu do not constitute adverse ecological risk.The results of the SEM revealed that T,elevation,and land use types were the main drivers of spatial variations in the levels of heavy metals,with standardized path coefficients of-0.82,0.21,and 0.14,respectively.The results of this study can provide theoretical support for ecological risk assessment and driver analysis of dissolved heavy metal pollution,which is of great practical importance for surface water pollution prevention and water environmental protection.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42171298 and 42201333)Late Project of National Social Science Foundation in China(No.20FJYB035)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing,China(No.CSTB2022NSCQ-BHX0734)Philosophy and Social Science Major Project of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(Grant No.24SKZDZX04)。
文摘Ecological risk is a dynamic reflection of ecosystem stability and harmonious social development.The role played by risk identification and evolutionary trend prediction as mediators between ecological risk management and prevention is complex.However,current studies have difficulty identifying where,when,and how ecological risk evolves.Here,we constructed a double evaluation index system of ecological risk source hazard and ecological risk receptor loss degree to quantitatively evaluate and simulate ecological risk in the upper Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)(UYR).Then,we adopted the normal cloud model to identify the ecological risk level at different scales in the UYR.Finally,we leveraged set pair analysis to reveal the future evolution trend of ecological risk in the UYR.The following conclusions were drawn.1)From 2015 to 2018,the ecological risk in the UYR exhibited significant spatial aggregation characteristics,with a spatial distribution pattern of“high in the west,low in the east”.The risk value increased from[0,0.28]to[0,0.32],an increase of 12.49%.2)The ecological risk level of the UYR in 2015 and 2018 was in a high-alert state,but the risk value showed a downward annual trend.The comprehensive ecological risk value decreased from 0.5295 to 0.5135.3)The ecological risk of 67%of the cities in the UYR will decrease in the future,and will increase in 33%of the cities.4)The probability of geological disasters was the most significant ecological risk source in the UYR.Ecosystem service value significantly impacted ecological risk receptors loss degree in the UYR.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42072201)Anhui University Collaborative Innovation Project(No.GXXT-2021-017)+1 种基金Anhui Ecological Environment Science and Technology Project,China(No.2024hb011)Anhui Higher Education Institutions Scientific Research Project(No.2024AH040046).
文摘Complex anthropogenic activities and geographic conditions in the Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)Basin have led to significant spatial variations in dissolved heavy metal contents,posing potential threats to aquatic ecosystems.To investigate the ecological risks and drivers of dissolved heavy metals in the Chang Jiang(Yangtze R.)Basin,physicochemical indicators,heavy metals,and nutrient salts were collected and measured,and the ecological risk was evaluated by using a tiered ecological risk assessment and structural equation model(SEM)for driver analysis.The results revealed that the mean values of As,Pb,Cr,Zn,Ni,Cd,and Cu were lower than those of Class Ⅲ,among which the coefficients of variation of Cd and Pb were greater than 100%,which were affected by human activities.Tiered ecological risk assessment,ranging from deterministic point estimation methods to probabilistic hazard quotient evaluation approaches,demonstrated that Zn poses a potential ecological risk to aquatic organisms and is the key contaminant driving ecological risk in the study area,whereas As,Pb,Cr,Ni,Cd,and Cu do not constitute adverse ecological risk.The results of the SEM revealed that T,elevation,and land use types were the main drivers of spatial variations in the levels of heavy metals,with standardized path coefficients of-0.82,0.21,and 0.14,respectively.The results of this study can provide theoretical support for ecological risk assessment and driver analysis of dissolved heavy metal pollution,which is of great practical importance for surface water pollution prevention and water environmental protection.
