Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in c...Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models.Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations.In this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse.Through a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s variability.The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC.The results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly.However,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.展开更多
In this paper,we propose a neural network approach to learn the parameters of a class of stochastic Lotka-Volterra systems.Approximations of the mean and covariance matrix of the observational variables are obtained f...In this paper,we propose a neural network approach to learn the parameters of a class of stochastic Lotka-Volterra systems.Approximations of the mean and covariance matrix of the observational variables are obtained from the Euler-Maruyama discretization of the underlying stochastic differential equations(SDEs),based on which the loss function is built.The stochastic gradient descent method is applied in the neural network training.Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.展开更多
Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral(EMRI)signals pose significant challenges to gravitational wave(GW)data analysis,mainly owing to their highly complex waveforms and high-dimensional parameter space.Given their extended time...Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral(EMRI)signals pose significant challenges to gravitational wave(GW)data analysis,mainly owing to their highly complex waveforms and high-dimensional parameter space.Given their extended timescales of months to years and low signal-to-noise ratios,detecting and analyzing EMRIs with confidence generally relies on long-term observations.Besides the length of data,parameter estimation is particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies,arising from multiple local maxima,as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function.These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis based on traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods.To address these challenges,the present study explores a machine learning approach to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals,leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ordinary differential equation neural networks.To our knowledge,this is also the first instance of applying continuous normalizing flows to EMRI analysis.Our approach demonstrates an increase in computational efficiency by several orders of magnitude compared to the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods,while preserving the unbiasedness of results.However,we note that the posterior distributions generated by FMPE may exhibit broader uncertainty ranges than those obtained through full Bayesian sampling,requiring subsequent refinement via methods such as MCMC.Notably,when searching from large priors,our model rapidly approaches the true values while MCMC struggles to converge to the global maximum.Our findings highlight that machine learning has the potential to efficiently handle the vast EMRI parameter space of up to seventeen dimensions,offering new perspectives for advancing space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.展开更多
Deep Learning has been widely used to model soft sensors in modern industrial processes with nonlinear variables and uncertainty.Due to the outstanding ability for high-level feature extraction,stacked autoencoder(SAE...Deep Learning has been widely used to model soft sensors in modern industrial processes with nonlinear variables and uncertainty.Due to the outstanding ability for high-level feature extraction,stacked autoencoder(SAE)has been widely used to improve the model accuracy of soft sensors.However,with the increase of network layers,SAE may encounter serious information loss issues,which affect the modeling performance of soft sensors.Besides,there are typically very few labeled samples in the data set,which brings challenges to traditional neural networks to solve.In this paper,a multi-scale feature fused stacked autoencoder(MFF-SAE)is suggested for feature representation related to hierarchical output,where stacked autoencoder,mutual information(MI)and multi-scale feature fusion(MFF)strategies are integrated.Based on correlation analysis between output and input variables,critical hidden variables are extracted from the original variables in each autoencoder's input layer,which are correspondingly given varying weights.Besides,an integration strategy based on multi-scale feature fusion is adopted to mitigate the impact of information loss with the deepening of the network layers.Then,the MFF-SAE method is designed and stacked to form deep networks.Two practical industrial processes are utilized to evaluate the performance of MFF-SAE.Results from simulations indicate that in comparison to other cutting-edge techniques,the proposed method may considerably enhance the accuracy of soft sensor modeling,where the suggested method reduces the root mean square error(RMSE)by 71.8%,17.1%and 64.7%,15.1%,respectively.展开更多
The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of ...The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.展开更多
Large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving abilities are significant for many receivers. With these abilities, receivers can obtain signals with different power in ultra-wideband frequency space without informat...Large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving abilities are significant for many receivers. With these abilities, receivers can obtain signals with different power in ultra-wideband frequency space without information loss. However, conventional receiving scheme is hard to have large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving simultaneously because of the analog-to-digital converter(ADC) dynamic range and sample rate limitations. In this paper, based on the modulated sampling and unlimited sampling, a novel receiving scheme is proposed to achieve large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving. Focusing on the single carrier signals, the proposed scheme only uses a single self-rest ADC(SR-ADC) with low sample rate, and it achieves large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving simultaneously. Two receiving scenarios are considered, and they are cooperative strong signal receiving and non-cooperative strong/weak signals receiving. In the cooperative receiving scenario, an improved fast recovery method is proposed to obtain the modulated sampling output. In the non-cooperative receiving scenario, the strong and weak signals with different carrier frequencies are considered, and the signal processing method can recover and estimate each signal. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can realize large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving simultaneously when the input signal-to-noise(SNR) ratio is high.展开更多
The high-speed winding spindle employs a flexible support system incorporating rubber O-rings.By precisely configuring the structural parameters and the number of the O-rings,the spindle can stably surpass its critica...The high-speed winding spindle employs a flexible support system incorporating rubber O-rings.By precisely configuring the structural parameters and the number of the O-rings,the spindle can stably surpass its critical speed points and maintain operational stability across the entire working speed range.However,the support stiffness and damping of rubber O-rings exhibit significant nonlinear frequency dependence.Conventional experimental methods for deriving equivalent stiffness and damping,based on the principle of the forced non-resonance method,require fabricating custom setups for each O-ring specification and conducting vibration tests at varying frequencies,resulting in low efficiency and high costs.This study proposes a hybrid simulation-experimental method for dynamic parameter identification.Firstly,the frequency-dependent dynamic parameters of a specific O-ring support system are experimentally obtained.Subsequently,a corresponding parametric finite element model is established to simulate and solve the equivalent elastic modulus and equivalent stiffness-damping coefficient of this O-ring support system.Ultimately,after iterative simulation,the simulated and experimental results achieve a 99.7%agreement.The parametric finite element model developed herein can directly simulate and inversely estimate frequency-dependent dynamic parameters for O-rings of different specifications but identical elastic modulus.展开更多
The reuse of liquid propellant rocket engines has increased the difficulty of their control and estimation.State and parameter Moving Horizon Estimation(MHE)is an optimization-based strategy that provides the necessar...The reuse of liquid propellant rocket engines has increased the difficulty of their control and estimation.State and parameter Moving Horizon Estimation(MHE)is an optimization-based strategy that provides the necessary information for model predictive control.Despite the many advantages of MHE,long computation time has limited its applications for system-level models of liquid propellant rocket engines.To address this issue,we propose an asynchronous MHE method called advanced-multi-step MHE with Noise Covariance Estimation(amsMHE-NCE).This method computes the MHE problem asynchronously to obtain the states and parameters and can be applied to multi-threaded computations.In the background,the state and covariance estimation optimization problems are computed using multiple sampling times.In real-time,sensitivity is used to quickly approximate state and parameter estimates.A covariance estimation method is developed using sensitivity to avoid redundant MHE problem calculations in case of sensor degradation during engine reuse.The amsMHE-NCE is validated through three cases based on the space shuttle main engine system-level model,and we demonstrate that it can provide more accurate real-time estimates of states and parameters compared to other commonly used estimation methods.展开更多
The research on ocean dynamics information plays a crucial role in understanding ocean phenomena, assessing marine environmental impacts, and guiding engineering designs. The Doppler information observed by radars ref...The research on ocean dynamics information plays a crucial role in understanding ocean phenomena, assessing marine environmental impacts, and guiding engineering designs. The Doppler information observed by radars reflects sea surface dynamics, to which ocean waves make important contributions. Low-incidence-angle real aperture radar(RAR)demonstrates great potential for independently observing vectorial Doppler information on the ocean surface. To systematically characterize and accurately estimate the wave-induced Doppler frequency shift(WVF) from lowincidence-angle RAR, this study conducts comprehensive influencing factor analysis and establishes sea-stateparameterized WVF models. First, a simulated WVF dataset is generated under a rotating low-incidence-angle RAR.The feature parameters of WVF are then determined by analysing contributing factors including wind waves, swells,and sea state parameters. Furthermore, two WVF models(WVF_Ku P9 with 9 inputs and WVF_Ku P4 with 4 inputs) are constructed by the Transformer encoder for different application scenarios. Both models achieve high accuracy for WVF estimation with root mean square errors(RMSE) of 1.874 Hz and 2.716 Hz, respectively. The reliability and superiority of the proposed models are validated through comparisons with the Ka DOP, which is a typical geophysical model function(GMF). The findings in this paper advance the understanding of WVF characteristics and generation mechanisms. The proposed estimation models can provide reliable estimates, offering critical references for lowincidence-angle RAR applications such as ocean surface current retrieval.展开更多
In order to obtain better inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)image,a novel structure-enhanced spatial spectrum is proposed for estimating the incoherence parameters and fusing multiband.The proposed method takes fu...In order to obtain better inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)image,a novel structure-enhanced spatial spectrum is proposed for estimating the incoherence parameters and fusing multiband.The proposed method takes full advantage of the original electromagnetic scattering data and its conjugated form by combining them with the novel covariance matrices.To analyse the superiority of the modified algorithm,the mathematical expression of equivalent signal to noise ratio(SNR)is derived,which can validate our proposed algorithm theoretically.In addition,compared with the conventional matrix pencil(MP)algorithm and the conventional root-multiple signal classification(Root-MUSIC)algorithm,the proposed algorithm has better parameter estimation performance and more accurate multiband fusion results at the same SNR situations.Validity and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by simulation data and real radar data.展开更多
This study introduces the type-I heavy-tailed Burr XII(TIHTBXII)distribution,a highly flexible and robust statistical model designed to address the limitations of conventional distributions in analyzing data character...This study introduces the type-I heavy-tailed Burr XII(TIHTBXII)distribution,a highly flexible and robust statistical model designed to address the limitations of conventional distributions in analyzing data characterized by skewness,heavy tails,and diverse hazard behaviors.We meticulously develop the TIHTBXII’s mathematical foundations,including its probability density function(PDF),cumulative distribution function(CDF),and essential statistical properties,crucial for theoretical understanding and practical application.A comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluates four parameter estimation methods:maximum likelihood(MLE),maximum product spacing(MPS),least squares(LS),and weighted least squares(WLS).The simulation results consistently show that as sample sizes increase,the Bias and RMSE of all estimators decrease,with WLS and LS often demonstrating superior and more stable performance.Beyond theoretical development,we present a practical application of the TIHTBXII distribution in constructing a group acceptance sampling plan(GASP)for truncated life tests.This application highlights how the TIHTBXII model can optimize quality control decisions by minimizing the average sample number(ASN)while effectively managing consumer and producer risks.Empirical validation using real-world datasets,including“Active Repair Duration,”“Groundwater Contaminant Measurements,”and“Dominica COVID-19 Mortality,”further demonstrates the TIHTBXII’s superior fit compared to existing models.Our findings confirm the TIHTBXII distribution as a powerful and reliable alternative for accurately modeling complex data in fields such as reliability engineering and quality assessment,leading to more informed and robust decision-making.展开更多
Aiming to address the challenge of directly measuring the real-time adhesion coefficient between wheels and rails,this paper proposes an online estimation algorithm for the adhesion coefficient based on parameter esti...Aiming to address the challenge of directly measuring the real-time adhesion coefficient between wheels and rails,this paper proposes an online estimation algorithm for the adhesion coefficient based on parameter estimation.Firstly,a force analysis of the single-wheel pair model of the train is conducted to derive the calculation relationship for the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient in train dynamics.Then,an estimator based on parameter estimation is designed,and its stability is verified.This estimator is combined with the wheelset force analysis to estimate the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient.Finally,the approach is validated through joint simulations on the MATLAB/Simulink and AMESim platforms,as well as a hardware-in-the-loop semi-physical simulation experimental platform that accounts for system delay and noise conditions.The results indicate that the proposed algorithm effectively tracks changes in the adhesion coefficient during train braking,including the decrease in adhesion when the train brakes and slides,and the overall increase as the train speed decreases.The effectiveness of the algorithm was verified by setting different test conditions.The results show that the estimation algorithm can accurately estimate the adhesion coefficient,and through error analysis,it is found that the error between the estimated value of the adhesion coefficient and the theoretical value of the adhesion coefficient is within 5%.The adhesion coefficient obtained through the online estimation method based on the parameter estimation proposed in this paper demonstrates strong followability in both simulation and practical applications.展开更多
Squeezed reservoir engineering is a powerful technique in quantum information that combines the features of squeezing and reservoir engineering to create and stabilize non-classical quantum states. In this paper, we f...Squeezed reservoir engineering is a powerful technique in quantum information that combines the features of squeezing and reservoir engineering to create and stabilize non-classical quantum states. In this paper, we focus on the previously neglected aspect of the impact of the squeezing phase on the precision of quantum phase and amplitude estimation based on a simple model of a two-level system(TLS) interacting with a squeezed reservoir. We derive the optimal squeezed phase-matching conditions for phase φ and amplitude θ parameters, which are crucial for enhancing the precision of quantum parameter estimation. The robustness of the squeezing-enhanced quantum Fisher information against departures from these conditions is examined, demonstrating that minor deviations from phase-matching can still result in remarkable precision of estimation. Additionally, we provide a geometric interpretation of the squeezed phase-matching conditions from the classical motion of a TLS on the Bloch sphere. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of the operational requirements for employing squeezed reservoir engineering to advance quantum parameter estimation.展开更多
Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution g...Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers.展开更多
In recent years,the development of domestic commercial synthetic aperture radar(SAR)is in full swing,with multiple commercial SAR satellites in orbit,showing great potential in disaster monitoring,natural resource man...In recent years,the development of domestic commercial synthetic aperture radar(SAR)is in full swing,with multiple commercial SAR satellites in orbit,showing great potential in disaster monitoring,natural resource management and deformation observation.Fucheng-1 is the first C-band commercial SAR satellite for interferometric SAR(InSAR)service developed by Spacety China,which marks the gradual maturity of China’s remote sensing data service.Based on the raw data collected by Fucheng-1,this paper firstly introduces the range-Doppler algorithm(RDA),then illustrates the parameter estimation method on the basis of fractional Fourier transform(FrFT)to realize the accurate estimation of azimuth chirp rate,which effectively improves imaging quality.Finally,the L1-norm regularization based sparse imaging method is utilized to reconstruct images from down-sampled data.Experimental results show that the sparse imaging algorithm can accurately reconstruct the down-sampled Fucheng-1 data and suppress sidelobes and clutter.展开更多
Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characterist...Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characteristic,rendering traditional distribution models and parameter estimation methods less effective.To address this,this paper proposes a dual compound-Gaussian model with inverse Gaussian texture(CG-IG)distribution model and combines it with an improved Adam algorithm to introduce a method for parameter correction.This method effectively fits sea clutter with heavy-tailed characteristics.Experiments with real measured sea clutter data show that the dual CGIG distribution model,after parameter correction,accurately describes the heavy-tailed phenomenon in sea clutter amplitude distribution,and the overall mean square error of the distribution is reduced.展开更多
A new version of differential evolution （DE） algorithm, in which immune concepts and methods are applied to determine the parameter setting, named immune self-adaptive differential evolution （ISDE）, is proposed to...A new version of differential evolution （DE） algorithm, in which immune concepts and methods are applied to determine the parameter setting, named immune self-adaptive differential evolution （ISDE）, is proposed to improve the performance of the DE algorithm. During the actual operation, ISDE seeks the optimal parameters arising from the evolutionary process, which enable ISDE to alter the algorithm for different optimization problems and improve the performance of ISDE by the control parameters＇ self-adaptation. The .performance of the proposed method is studied with the use of nine benchmark problems and compared with original DE algorithm ~nd-other well-known self-adaptive DE algorithms. The experiments conducted show that the ISDE clearly outperforms the other DE algorithms in all benchmark functions. Furthermore, ISDE is applied to develop the kinetic model for homogeneous mercury. （Hg） oxidation in flue gas, and satisfactory results are obtained.展开更多
We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartmen...We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.展开更多
Parameter estimation is always a difficult issue for crop model users, and inaccurate parameter values will result in deceptive model predictions. Parameter values may vary with different inversion methods due to equi...Parameter estimation is always a difficult issue for crop model users, and inaccurate parameter values will result in deceptive model predictions. Parameter values may vary with different inversion methods due to equifinality and differences in the estimating processes. Therefore, it is of great importance to evaluate the factors which may influence parameter estimates and to make a comparison of the current widely-used methods. In this study, three popular frequentist methods(SCE-UA, GA and PEST) and two Bayesian-based methods(GLUE and MCMC-AM) were applied to estimate nine cultivar parameters using the ORYZA(v3) Model. The results showed that there were substantial differences between the parameter estimates derived by the different methods, and they had strong effects on model predictions. The parameter estimates given by the frequentist methods were obviously sensitive to initial values, and the extent of the sensitivity varied with algorithms and objective functions. Among the frequentist methods, the SCE-UA was recommended due to the balance between stable convergence and high efficiency. All the parameter estimates remarkably improved the goodness of model-fit, and the parameter estimates derived from the Bayesian-based methods had relatively worse performance compared to the frequentist methods. In particular, the parameter estimates with the highest probability density of posterior distributions derived from the MCMC-AM method(MCMC_P_(max)) led to results equivalent to those derived from the frequentist methods, and even better in some situations. Additionally, model accuracy was greatly influenced by the values of phenology parameters in validation.展开更多
A new method and corresponding numerical procedure are introduced to estimate scaling exponents of power-law degree distribution and hierarchical clustering function for complex networks. This method can overcome the ...A new method and corresponding numerical procedure are introduced to estimate scaling exponents of power-law degree distribution and hierarchical clustering function for complex networks. This method can overcome the biased and inaccurate faults of graphical linear fitting methods commonly used in current network research. Furthermore, it is verified to have higher goodness-of-fit than graphical methods by comparing the KS （Kolmogorov-Smirnov） test statistics for 10 CNN （Connecting Nearest-Neighbor） networks.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2023YFF0805202]the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China [grant number 42175045]the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDB42000000]。
文摘Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate models.Previous studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC simulations.In this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its collapse.Through a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s variability.The traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of AMOC.The results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter slowly.However,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11971458,11471310)。
文摘In this paper,we propose a neural network approach to learn the parameters of a class of stochastic Lotka-Volterra systems.Approximations of the mean and covariance matrix of the observational variables are obtained from the Euler-Maruyama discretization of the underlying stochastic differential equations(SDEs),based on which the loss function is built.The stochastic gradient descent method is applied in the neural network training.Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2021YFC2201901,2021YFC2203004,2020YFC2200100 and 2021YFC2201903)International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.025GJHZ2023106GC)+4 种基金the financial support from Brazilian agencies Funda??o de AmparoàPesquisa do Estado de S?o Paulo(FAPESP)Funda??o de Amparoà Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul(FAPERGS)Fundacao de Amparoà Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro(FAPERJ)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico(CNPq)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior(CAPES)。
文摘Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral(EMRI)signals pose significant challenges to gravitational wave(GW)data analysis,mainly owing to their highly complex waveforms and high-dimensional parameter space.Given their extended timescales of months to years and low signal-to-noise ratios,detecting and analyzing EMRIs with confidence generally relies on long-term observations.Besides the length of data,parameter estimation is particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies,arising from multiple local maxima,as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function.These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis based on traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods.To address these challenges,the present study explores a machine learning approach to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals,leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ordinary differential equation neural networks.To our knowledge,this is also the first instance of applying continuous normalizing flows to EMRI analysis.Our approach demonstrates an increase in computational efficiency by several orders of magnitude compared to the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods,while preserving the unbiasedness of results.However,we note that the posterior distributions generated by FMPE may exhibit broader uncertainty ranges than those obtained through full Bayesian sampling,requiring subsequent refinement via methods such as MCMC.Notably,when searching from large priors,our model rapidly approaches the true values while MCMC struggles to converge to the global maximum.Our findings highlight that machine learning has the potential to efficiently handle the vast EMRI parameter space of up to seventeen dimensions,offering new perspectives for advancing space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFB3307800)National Natural Science Foundation of China(62394343,62373155)+2 种基金Major Science and Technology Project of Xinjiang(No.2022A01006-4)State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology,China(Grant No.ICT2024A26)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
文摘Deep Learning has been widely used to model soft sensors in modern industrial processes with nonlinear variables and uncertainty.Due to the outstanding ability for high-level feature extraction,stacked autoencoder(SAE)has been widely used to improve the model accuracy of soft sensors.However,with the increase of network layers,SAE may encounter serious information loss issues,which affect the modeling performance of soft sensors.Besides,there are typically very few labeled samples in the data set,which brings challenges to traditional neural networks to solve.In this paper,a multi-scale feature fused stacked autoencoder(MFF-SAE)is suggested for feature representation related to hierarchical output,where stacked autoencoder,mutual information(MI)and multi-scale feature fusion(MFF)strategies are integrated.Based on correlation analysis between output and input variables,critical hidden variables are extracted from the original variables in each autoencoder's input layer,which are correspondingly given varying weights.Besides,an integration strategy based on multi-scale feature fusion is adopted to mitigate the impact of information loss with the deepening of the network layers.Then,the MFF-SAE method is designed and stacked to form deep networks.Two practical industrial processes are utilized to evaluate the performance of MFF-SAE.Results from simulations indicate that in comparison to other cutting-edge techniques,the proposed method may considerably enhance the accuracy of soft sensor modeling,where the suggested method reduces the root mean square error(RMSE)by 71.8%,17.1%and 64.7%,15.1%,respectively.
基金supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation of Ministry of Education(No.GLAB 2024ZR03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42407248)+2 种基金the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program(Natural Science)(No.QKHJC-[2023]-YB066)the Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB04-02)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.
文摘Large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving abilities are significant for many receivers. With these abilities, receivers can obtain signals with different power in ultra-wideband frequency space without information loss. However, conventional receiving scheme is hard to have large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving simultaneously because of the analog-to-digital converter(ADC) dynamic range and sample rate limitations. In this paper, based on the modulated sampling and unlimited sampling, a novel receiving scheme is proposed to achieve large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving. Focusing on the single carrier signals, the proposed scheme only uses a single self-rest ADC(SR-ADC) with low sample rate, and it achieves large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving simultaneously. Two receiving scenarios are considered, and they are cooperative strong signal receiving and non-cooperative strong/weak signals receiving. In the cooperative receiving scenario, an improved fast recovery method is proposed to obtain the modulated sampling output. In the non-cooperative receiving scenario, the strong and weak signals with different carrier frequencies are considered, and the signal processing method can recover and estimate each signal. Simulation results show that the proposed scheme can realize large dynamic range and ultra-wideband receiving simultaneously when the input signal-to-noise(SNR) ratio is high.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2017YFB1304000)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(No.2232023G-05-1)。
文摘The high-speed winding spindle employs a flexible support system incorporating rubber O-rings.By precisely configuring the structural parameters and the number of the O-rings,the spindle can stably surpass its critical speed points and maintain operational stability across the entire working speed range.However,the support stiffness and damping of rubber O-rings exhibit significant nonlinear frequency dependence.Conventional experimental methods for deriving equivalent stiffness and damping,based on the principle of the forced non-resonance method,require fabricating custom setups for each O-ring specification and conducting vibration tests at varying frequencies,resulting in low efficiency and high costs.This study proposes a hybrid simulation-experimental method for dynamic parameter identification.Firstly,the frequency-dependent dynamic parameters of a specific O-ring support system are experimentally obtained.Subsequently,a corresponding parametric finite element model is established to simulate and solve the equivalent elastic modulus and equivalent stiffness-damping coefficient of this O-ring support system.Ultimately,after iterative simulation,the simulated and experimental results achieve a 99.7%agreement.The parametric finite element model developed herein can directly simulate and inversely estimate frequency-dependent dynamic parameters for O-rings of different specifications but identical elastic modulus.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62120106003 and 62173301)。
文摘The reuse of liquid propellant rocket engines has increased the difficulty of their control and estimation.State and parameter Moving Horizon Estimation(MHE)is an optimization-based strategy that provides the necessary information for model predictive control.Despite the many advantages of MHE,long computation time has limited its applications for system-level models of liquid propellant rocket engines.To address this issue,we propose an asynchronous MHE method called advanced-multi-step MHE with Noise Covariance Estimation(amsMHE-NCE).This method computes the MHE problem asynchronously to obtain the states and parameters and can be applied to multi-threaded computations.In the background,the state and covariance estimation optimization problems are computed using multiple sampling times.In real-time,sensitivity is used to quickly approximate state and parameter estimates.A covariance estimation method is developed using sensitivity to avoid redundant MHE problem calculations in case of sensor degradation during engine reuse.The amsMHE-NCE is validated through three cases based on the space shuttle main engine system-level model,and we demonstrate that it can provide more accurate real-time estimates of states and parameters compared to other commonly used estimation methods.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 42274159the Project supported by Key Laboratory of Space Ocean Remote Sensing and Application,MNR under contract No.2023CFO016。
文摘The research on ocean dynamics information plays a crucial role in understanding ocean phenomena, assessing marine environmental impacts, and guiding engineering designs. The Doppler information observed by radars reflects sea surface dynamics, to which ocean waves make important contributions. Low-incidence-angle real aperture radar(RAR)demonstrates great potential for independently observing vectorial Doppler information on the ocean surface. To systematically characterize and accurately estimate the wave-induced Doppler frequency shift(WVF) from lowincidence-angle RAR, this study conducts comprehensive influencing factor analysis and establishes sea-stateparameterized WVF models. First, a simulated WVF dataset is generated under a rotating low-incidence-angle RAR.The feature parameters of WVF are then determined by analysing contributing factors including wind waves, swells,and sea state parameters. Furthermore, two WVF models(WVF_Ku P9 with 9 inputs and WVF_Ku P4 with 4 inputs) are constructed by the Transformer encoder for different application scenarios. Both models achieve high accuracy for WVF estimation with root mean square errors(RMSE) of 1.874 Hz and 2.716 Hz, respectively. The reliability and superiority of the proposed models are validated through comparisons with the Ka DOP, which is a typical geophysical model function(GMF). The findings in this paper advance the understanding of WVF characteristics and generation mechanisms. The proposed estimation models can provide reliable estimates, offering critical references for lowincidence-angle RAR applications such as ocean surface current retrieval.
文摘In order to obtain better inverse synthetic aperture radar(ISAR)image,a novel structure-enhanced spatial spectrum is proposed for estimating the incoherence parameters and fusing multiband.The proposed method takes full advantage of the original electromagnetic scattering data and its conjugated form by combining them with the novel covariance matrices.To analyse the superiority of the modified algorithm,the mathematical expression of equivalent signal to noise ratio(SNR)is derived,which can validate our proposed algorithm theoretically.In addition,compared with the conventional matrix pencil(MP)algorithm and the conventional root-multiple signal classification(Root-MUSIC)algorithm,the proposed algorithm has better parameter estimation performance and more accurate multiband fusion results at the same SNR situations.Validity and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by simulation data and real radar data.
基金supported and funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University(IMSIU)(Grant Number IMSIU-DDRSP2501).
文摘This study introduces the type-I heavy-tailed Burr XII(TIHTBXII)distribution,a highly flexible and robust statistical model designed to address the limitations of conventional distributions in analyzing data characterized by skewness,heavy tails,and diverse hazard behaviors.We meticulously develop the TIHTBXII’s mathematical foundations,including its probability density function(PDF),cumulative distribution function(CDF),and essential statistical properties,crucial for theoretical understanding and practical application.A comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluates four parameter estimation methods:maximum likelihood(MLE),maximum product spacing(MPS),least squares(LS),and weighted least squares(WLS).The simulation results consistently show that as sample sizes increase,the Bias and RMSE of all estimators decrease,with WLS and LS often demonstrating superior and more stable performance.Beyond theoretical development,we present a practical application of the TIHTBXII distribution in constructing a group acceptance sampling plan(GASP)for truncated life tests.This application highlights how the TIHTBXII model can optimize quality control decisions by minimizing the average sample number(ASN)while effectively managing consumer and producer risks.Empirical validation using real-world datasets,including“Active Repair Duration,”“Groundwater Contaminant Measurements,”and“Dominica COVID-19 Mortality,”further demonstrates the TIHTBXII’s superior fit compared to existing models.Our findings confirm the TIHTBXII distribution as a powerful and reliable alternative for accurately modeling complex data in fields such as reliability engineering and quality assessment,leading to more informed and robust decision-making.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant/award number 52072266).
文摘Aiming to address the challenge of directly measuring the real-time adhesion coefficient between wheels and rails,this paper proposes an online estimation algorithm for the adhesion coefficient based on parameter estimation.Firstly,a force analysis of the single-wheel pair model of the train is conducted to derive the calculation relationship for the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient in train dynamics.Then,an estimator based on parameter estimation is designed,and its stability is verified.This estimator is combined with the wheelset force analysis to estimate the wheel-rail adhesion coefficient.Finally,the approach is validated through joint simulations on the MATLAB/Simulink and AMESim platforms,as well as a hardware-in-the-loop semi-physical simulation experimental platform that accounts for system delay and noise conditions.The results indicate that the proposed algorithm effectively tracks changes in the adhesion coefficient during train braking,including the decrease in adhesion when the train brakes and slides,and the overall increase as the train speed decreases.The effectiveness of the algorithm was verified by setting different test conditions.The results show that the estimation algorithm can accurately estimate the adhesion coefficient,and through error analysis,it is found that the error between the estimated value of the adhesion coefficient and the theoretical value of the adhesion coefficient is within 5%.The adhesion coefficient obtained through the online estimation method based on the parameter estimation proposed in this paper demonstrates strong followability in both simulation and practical applications.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12265004)Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. 20242BAB26010)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 12365003)Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant Nos. 20212ACB211004 and 20212BAB201014)。
文摘Squeezed reservoir engineering is a powerful technique in quantum information that combines the features of squeezing and reservoir engineering to create and stabilize non-classical quantum states. In this paper, we focus on the previously neglected aspect of the impact of the squeezing phase on the precision of quantum phase and amplitude estimation based on a simple model of a two-level system(TLS) interacting with a squeezed reservoir. We derive the optimal squeezed phase-matching conditions for phase φ and amplitude θ parameters, which are crucial for enhancing the precision of quantum parameter estimation. The robustness of the squeezing-enhanced quantum Fisher information against departures from these conditions is examined, demonstrating that minor deviations from phase-matching can still result in remarkable precision of estimation. Additionally, we provide a geometric interpretation of the squeezed phase-matching conditions from the classical motion of a TLS on the Bloch sphere. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of the operational requirements for employing squeezed reservoir engineering to advance quantum parameter estimation.
基金supported via funding from Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University project number(PSAU/2025/R/1446).
文摘Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62271248)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20230090)the Key Laboratory of Land Satellite Remote Sensing Application through the Ministry of Natural Resources of China(No.KLSMNR-K202303).
文摘In recent years,the development of domestic commercial synthetic aperture radar(SAR)is in full swing,with multiple commercial SAR satellites in orbit,showing great potential in disaster monitoring,natural resource management and deformation observation.Fucheng-1 is the first C-band commercial SAR satellite for interferometric SAR(InSAR)service developed by Spacety China,which marks the gradual maturity of China’s remote sensing data service.Based on the raw data collected by Fucheng-1,this paper firstly introduces the range-Doppler algorithm(RDA),then illustrates the parameter estimation method on the basis of fractional Fourier transform(FrFT)to realize the accurate estimation of azimuth chirp rate,which effectively improves imaging quality.Finally,the L1-norm regularization based sparse imaging method is utilized to reconstruct images from down-sampled data.Experimental results show that the sparse imaging algorithm can accurately reconstruct the down-sampled Fucheng-1 data and suppress sidelobes and clutter.
文摘Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characteristic,rendering traditional distribution models and parameter estimation methods less effective.To address this,this paper proposes a dual compound-Gaussian model with inverse Gaussian texture(CG-IG)distribution model and combines it with an improved Adam algorithm to introduce a method for parameter correction.This method effectively fits sea clutter with heavy-tailed characteristics.Experiments with real measured sea clutter data show that the dual CGIG distribution model,after parameter correction,accurately describes the heavy-tailed phenomenon in sea clutter amplitude distribution,and the overall mean square error of the distribution is reduced.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （20506003, 20776042） and the National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China （2007AA04Z 164）.
文摘A new version of differential evolution （DE） algorithm, in which immune concepts and methods are applied to determine the parameter setting, named immune self-adaptive differential evolution （ISDE）, is proposed to improve the performance of the DE algorithm. During the actual operation, ISDE seeks the optimal parameters arising from the evolutionary process, which enable ISDE to alter the algorithm for different optimization problems and improve the performance of ISDE by the control parameters＇ self-adaptation. The .performance of the proposed method is studied with the use of nine benchmark problems and compared with original DE algorithm ~nd-other well-known self-adaptive DE algorithms. The experiments conducted show that the ISDE clearly outperforms the other DE algorithms in all benchmark functions. Furthermore, ISDE is applied to develop the kinetic model for homogeneous mercury. （Hg） oxidation in flue gas, and satisfactory results are obtained.
基金The work has been supported by a grant received from the Ministry of Education,Government of India under the Scheme for the Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration(SPARC)(ID:SPARC/2019/1396).
文摘We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC 51909004)。
文摘Parameter estimation is always a difficult issue for crop model users, and inaccurate parameter values will result in deceptive model predictions. Parameter values may vary with different inversion methods due to equifinality and differences in the estimating processes. Therefore, it is of great importance to evaluate the factors which may influence parameter estimates and to make a comparison of the current widely-used methods. In this study, three popular frequentist methods(SCE-UA, GA and PEST) and two Bayesian-based methods(GLUE and MCMC-AM) were applied to estimate nine cultivar parameters using the ORYZA(v3) Model. The results showed that there were substantial differences between the parameter estimates derived by the different methods, and they had strong effects on model predictions. The parameter estimates given by the frequentist methods were obviously sensitive to initial values, and the extent of the sensitivity varied with algorithms and objective functions. Among the frequentist methods, the SCE-UA was recommended due to the balance between stable convergence and high efficiency. All the parameter estimates remarkably improved the goodness of model-fit, and the parameter estimates derived from the Bayesian-based methods had relatively worse performance compared to the frequentist methods. In particular, the parameter estimates with the highest probability density of posterior distributions derived from the MCMC-AM method(MCMC_P_(max)) led to results equivalent to those derived from the frequentist methods, and even better in some situations. Additionally, model accuracy was greatly influenced by the values of phenology parameters in validation.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.70431002, 70401019)
文摘A new method and corresponding numerical procedure are introduced to estimate scaling exponents of power-law degree distribution and hierarchical clustering function for complex networks. This method can overcome the biased and inaccurate faults of graphical linear fitting methods commonly used in current network research. Furthermore, it is verified to have higher goodness-of-fit than graphical methods by comparing the KS （Kolmogorov-Smirnov） test statistics for 10 CNN （Connecting Nearest-Neighbor） networks.
