To accurately reconstruct the tomographic gamma scanning(TGS)transmission measurement image,this study optimized the transmission reconstruction equation based on the actual situation of TGS transmission measurement.U...To accurately reconstruct the tomographic gamma scanning(TGS)transmission measurement image,this study optimized the transmission reconstruction equation based on the actual situation of TGS transmission measurement.Using the transmission reconstruction equation and the Monte Carlo program Geant4,an innovative virtual trajectory length model was constructed.This model integrated the solving process for the trajectory length and detection efficiency within the same model.To mitigate the influence of the angular distribution ofγ-rays emitted by the transmitted source at the detector,the transport processes of numerous particles traversing a virtual nuclear waste barrel with a density of zero were simulated.Consequently,a certain amount of information was captured at each step of particle transport.Simultaneously,the model addressed the nonuniform detection efficiency of the detector end face by considering whether the energy deposition of particles in the detector equaled their initial energy.Two models were established to validate the accuracy and reliability of the virtual trajectory length model.Model 1 was a simplified nuclear waste barrel,whereas Model 2 closely resembled the actual structure of a nuclear waste barrel.The results indicated that the proposed virtual trajectory length model significantly enhanced the precision of the trajectory length determination,substantially increasing the quality of the reconstructed images.For example,the reconstructed images of Model 2 using the“point-to-point”and average trajectory models revealed a signalto-noise ratio increase of 375.0%and 112.7%,respectively.Thus,the virtual trajectory length model proposed in this study holds paramount significance for the precise reconstruction of transmission images.Moreover,it can provide support for the accurate detection of radioactive activity in nuclear waste barrels.展开更多
An improved Gaussian mixture model （GMM）- based clustering method is proposed for the difficult case where the true distribution of data is against the assumed GMM. First, an improved model selection criterion, the ...An improved Gaussian mixture model （GMM）- based clustering method is proposed for the difficult case where the true distribution of data is against the assumed GMM. First, an improved model selection criterion, the completed likelihood minimum message length criterion, is derived. It can measure both the goodness-of-fit of the candidate GMM to the data and the goodness-of-partition of the data. Secondly, by utilizing the proposed criterion as the clustering objective function, an improved expectation- maximization （EM） algorithm is developed, which can avoid poor local optimal solutions compared to the standard EM algorithm for estimating the model parameters. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can rectify the over-fitting tendency of representative GMM-based clustering approaches and can robustly provide more accurate clustering results.展开更多
Korean larch(Larix olgensis)is one of the main tree species for aff orestation and timber production in northeast China.However,its timber quality and growth ability are largely infl uenced by crown size,structure and...Korean larch(Larix olgensis)is one of the main tree species for aff orestation and timber production in northeast China.However,its timber quality and growth ability are largely infl uenced by crown size,structure and shape.The majority of crown models are static models based on tree size and stand characteristics from temporary sample plots,but crown dynamic models has seldom been constructed.Therefore,this study aimed to develop height to crown base(HCB)and crown length(CL)dynamic models using the branch mortality technique for a Korean larch plantation.The nonlinear mixed-eff ects model with random eff ects,variance functions and correlation structures,was used to build HCB and CL dynamic models.The data were obtained from 95 sample trees of 19 plots in Meng JiaGang forest farm in Northeast China.The results showed that HCB progressively increases as tree age,tree height growth(HT growth)and diameter at breast height growth(DBH growth).The CL was increased with tree age in 20 years ago,and subsequently stabilized.HT growth,DBH growth stand basal area(BAS)and crown competition factor(CCF)signifi cantly infl uenced HCB and CL.The HCB was positively correlated with BAS,HT growth and DBH growth,but negatively correlated with CCF.The CL was positively correlated with BAS and CCF,but negatively correlated with DBH growth.Model fi tting and validation confi rmed that the mixed-eff ects model considering the stand and tree level random eff ects was accurate and reliable for predicting the HCB and CL dynamics.However,the models involving adding variance functions and time series correlation structure could not completely remove heterogeneity and autocorrelation,and the fi tting precision of the models was reduced.Therefore,from the point of view of application,we should take care to avoid setting up over-complex models.The HCB and CL dynamic models in our study may also be incorporated into stand growth and yield model systems in China.展开更多
In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments （data are non-continuous and fragmental ...In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments （data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments）, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD （simple hydrology） model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization （PSO） method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.展开更多
An elastic vibration model for high length diameter ratio spinning rocket with attitude control system which can be used for trajectory simulation is established. The basic theory of elastic dynamics and vibration dy...An elastic vibration model for high length diameter ratio spinning rocket with attitude control system which can be used for trajectory simulation is established. The basic theory of elastic dynamics and vibration dynamics were both used to set up the elastic vibration model of rocket body. In order to study the problem more conveniently, the rocket's body was simplified to be an even beam with two free ends. The model was validated by simulation results and the test data.展开更多
A periodic packing mode of trickle-bed reactor (TBR) for the gas limited reaction was proposed. Hy-drogenation of 2-ethylanthraquinone over Pd/Al2O3 in a laboratory-scale TBR was taken as a test reaction for determini...A periodic packing mode of trickle-bed reactor (TBR) for the gas limited reaction was proposed. Hy-drogenation of 2-ethylanthraquinone over Pd/Al2O3 in a laboratory-scale TBR was taken as a test reaction for determining whether the periodic packing mode is advantageous. The effects of operating conditions and packing type on TBR performance were experimentally examined to demonstrate the cause-effect relationships. A mathe-matic model of TBR considering axial dispersion and fractional wetting was developed to quantitatively illuminate the reason of performance enhancement.展开更多
The theoretical results of axial force distribution models differ greatly from tests because of the complication of the rock type material. A three-parameter combined-power model is proposed by curves fitting the test...The theoretical results of axial force distribution models differ greatly from tests because of the complication of the rock type material. A three-parameter combined-power model is proposed by curves fitting the test data recorded from the pull tests on anchoring bars used in different engineering projects. Based on the comparison of the mechanical characteristics of shaft anchors and prestressed tendons, a two-parameter combined-power function model for prestressed tendons is proposed. The bounded length derived from the model and the suggested values of the parameters are also proposed. Compared with the Gaussian model, the three-parameter combined-power model is more precise and simple in expression. Results also suggest that the bounded length calculated from the average stress method is not safe enough.展开更多
Although many studies have investigated slope gradient uncertainty derived from Digital Elevation Models(DEMs), the research concerning slope length uncertainty is far from mature. This discrepancy affects the availab...Although many studies have investigated slope gradient uncertainty derived from Digital Elevation Models(DEMs), the research concerning slope length uncertainty is far from mature. This discrepancy affects the availability and accuracy of soil erosion as well as hydrological modeling. This study investigates the formation and distribution of existing errors and uncertainties in slope length derivation based on 5-m resolution DEMs of the Loess Plateau in the middle of China. The slope length accuracy in three different landform areas is examined to analyse algorithm effects. The experiments indicate that the accuracy of the flat test area is lower than that of the rougher areas. The value from the specific contributing area(SCA) method is greater than the cumulative slope length(CSL), and the differences between these two methods arise from the shape of the upslope area. The variation of mean slope length derived from various DEM resolutions and landforms. The slope length accuracy decreases with increasing grid size and terrain complexity at the six test sites. A regression model is built to express the relationship of mean slope length with DEM resolution less than 85 m and terrain complexity represented by gully density. The results support the understanding of the slope length accuracy, thereby aiding in the effective evaluation of the modeling effect of surface process.展开更多
The object of this study is to propose a statistical model for predicting the Expected Path Length (expected number of steps the attacker will take, starting from the initial state to compromise the security goal—EPL...The object of this study is to propose a statistical model for predicting the Expected Path Length (expected number of steps the attacker will take, starting from the initial state to compromise the security goal—EPL) in a cyber-attack. The model we developed is based on utilizing vulnerability information along with having host centric attack graph. Utilizing the developed model, one can identify the interaction among the vulnerabilities and individual variables (risk factors) that drive the Expected Path Length. Gaining a better understanding of the relationship between vulnerabilities and their interactions can provide security administrators a better view and an understanding of their security status. In addition, we have also ranked the attributable variables and their contribution in estimating the subject length. Thus, one can utilize the ranking process to take precautions and actions to minimize Expected Path Length.展开更多
Gauss-Markov model is frequently used in data analysis; the analysis and estimation of its parameters is always a hot issue. Based on the information theory and from the viewpoint of optimal information on description...Gauss-Markov model is frequently used in data analysis; the analysis and estimation of its parameters is always a hot issue. Based on the information theory and from the viewpoint of optimal information on description—minimum description length, this paper discusses a case: where there is multi-collinearity in the coefficient matrix, principal component estimation is used to estimate and select the original parameters, so as to reduce its multi-collinearity and improve its credibility. From the viewpoint of minimum description length, this paper discusses the approach of selecting principal components and uses this approach to solve a practical problem.展开更多
A detailed investigation of a thermodynamic process in a structured packing distillation column is of great impor- tance in prediction of process efficiency. In order to keep the simplicity of an equilibrium stage mod...A detailed investigation of a thermodynamic process in a structured packing distillation column is of great impor- tance in prediction of process efficiency. In order to keep the simplicity of an equilibrium stage model and the accu- racy of a non-equilibrium stage model, a hybrid model is developed to predict the structured packing column in cryogenic air separation. A general solution process for the equilibrium stage model is developed to solve the set of equations of the hybrid model, in which a separation efficiency function is introduced to obtain the resulting tri-diagonal matrix and its solution by the Thomas algorithm. As an example, the algorithm is applied to analyze an upper column of a cryogenic air separation plant with the capacity of 17000 m3·h-1. Rigorous simulations are conducted using Aspen RATEFRAC module to validate the approach. The temperature and composition distributions are in a good agreement with the two methods. The effects of inlet/outlet position and flow rate on the temperature and composition distributions in the column are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model and the solution algorithms are effective in analvzin~ the distillation process for a a cryogenic structured packing column.展开更多
Based on the finite element simulation of profile extrusion process, the effect of local extrusion ratio, die bearing area and the distance between extrusion cylindrical center and local die orfice center on mental fl...Based on the finite element simulation of profile extrusion process, the effect of local extrusion ratio, die bearing area and the distance between extrusion cylindrical center and local die orfice center on mental flow velocity was investigated. The laws of deformed metal flow on profile extrusion process were obtained. The smaller the local extrusion ratio, the faster the metal flow velocity; the smaller the area of die bearing, the faster the metal flow velocity; the smaller the distance of position of local die orifice(the closer the distance of position of local die orifice from extrusion cylindrical axis), the faster the metal flow velocity. The effect of main parameters of die structure on metal flow velocity was integrated and the mathematical model of determination of die bearing length in design of aluminum profile extrusion die was proposed. The calculated results with proposed model were well compared with the experimental results. The proposed model can be applied to determine die bearing length in design of aluminum profile extrusion die.展开更多
We propose a new method to obtain the correlation length of gapped XXZ spin 1/2 antiferromagnetic chains. Following the relativistic quantum field theory in space-time dimensions, we use the exact dispersion of massi...We propose a new method to obtain the correlation length of gapped XXZ spin 1/2 antiferromagnetic chains. Following the relativistic quantum field theory in space-time dimensions, we use the exact dispersion of massive spinon to calculate the correlation length for XXZ spin 1/2 chain. We conjecture that the correlation length for other 1D lattice models can be obtained in the same way. Relation between dispersion and the oscillated correlation of gapped incommensurate lattice models is also discussed.展开更多
Computations involved in Bayesian approach to practical model selection problems are usually very difficult. Computational simplifications are sometimes possible, but are not generally applicable. There is a large lit...Computations involved in Bayesian approach to practical model selection problems are usually very difficult. Computational simplifications are sometimes possible, but are not generally applicable. There is a large literature available on a methodology based on information theory called Minimum Description Length (MDL). It is described here how many of these techniques are either directly Bayesian in nature, or are very good objective approximations to Bayesian solutions. First, connections between the Bayesian approach and MDL are theoretically explored;thereafter a few illustrations are provided to describe how MDL can give useful computational simplifications.展开更多
In this study, non-cumulative slope length(NCSL) calculation method and spatial analytical calculation(SAC) method were respectively applied to extract slope length and slope length factor from 10 sample areas, which ...In this study, non-cumulative slope length(NCSL) calculation method and spatial analytical calculation(SAC) method were respectively applied to extract slope length and slope length factor from 10 sample areas, which are located in Ansai County, north Shaanxi Province. The comparison of computation precision between variable DEM resolutions showed that NCSL was superior to SAC entirely. And the results were best when the DEM resolutions were 5 and 10 m. Besides, the results of slope length factor were nearly the same under the two conditions. So DEM of 10 m resolution can be used to extract slope length.展开更多
Due to unforeseen climate change,complicated chronic diseases,and mutation of viruses’hospital administration’s top challenge is to know about the Length of stay(LOS)of different diseased patients in the hospitals.H...Due to unforeseen climate change,complicated chronic diseases,and mutation of viruses’hospital administration’s top challenge is to know about the Length of stay(LOS)of different diseased patients in the hospitals.Hospital management does not exactly know when the existing patient leaves the hospital;this information could be crucial for hospital management.It could allow them to take more patients for admission.As a result,hospitals face many problems managing available resources and new patients in getting entries for their prompt treatment.Therefore,a robust model needs to be designed to help hospital administration predict patients’LOS to resolve these issues.For this purpose,a very large-sized data(more than 2.3 million patients’data)related to New-York Hospitals patients and containing information about a wide range of diseases including Bone-Marrow,Tuberculosis,Intestinal Transplant,Mental illness,Leukaemia,Spinal cord injury,Trauma,Rehabilitation,Kidney and Alcoholic Patients,HIV Patients,Malignant Breast disorder,Asthma,Respiratory distress syndrome,etc.have been analyzed to predict the LOS.We selected six Machine learning(ML)models named:Multiple linear regression(MLR),Lasso regression(LR),Ridge regression(RR),Decision tree regression(DTR),Extreme gradient boosting regression(XGBR),and Random Forest regression(RFR).The selected models’predictive performance was checked using R square andMean square error(MSE)as the performance evaluation criteria.Our results revealed the superior predictive performance of the RFRmodel,both in terms of RS score(92%)and MSE score(5),among all selected models.By Exploratory data analysis(EDA),we conclude that maximumstay was between 0 to 5 days with the meantime of each patient 5.3 days and more than 50 years old patients spent more days in the hospital.Based on the average LOS,results revealed that the patients with diagnoses related to birth complications spent more days in the hospital than other diseases.This finding could help predict the future length of hospital stay of new patients,which will help the hospital administration estimate and manage their resources efficiently.展开更多
The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(extended EWMA)control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift.The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the a...The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(extended EWMA)control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift.The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the average run length(ARL).Due to the deriving explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA control chart for trend autoregressive or trend AR(p)model has not been reported previously.The aim of this study is to derive the explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA con-trol chart for the trend AR(p)model as well as the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models with exponential white noise.The analytical solution accuracy was obtained with the extended EWMA control chart and was compared to the numer-ical integral equation(NIE)method.The results show that the ARL obtained by the explicit formula and the NIE method is hardly different,but the explicit for-mula can help decrease the computational(CPU)time.Furthermore,this is also expanded to comparative performance with the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(EWMA)control chart.The performance of the extended EWMA control chart is better than the EWMA control chart for all situations,both the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models.Finally,the analytical solution of ARL is applied to real-world data in the healthfield,such as COVID-19 data in the United Kingdom and Sweden,to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.展开更多
<strong>Background: </strong><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">One of the main objectives of hospital managements is to control the length ...<strong>Background: </strong><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">One of the main objectives of hospital managements is to control the length of stay (LOS). Successful control of LOS of inpatients will result in reduction in the cost of care, decrease in nosocomial infections, medication side effects, and better management of the limited number of available patients’ beds. The length of stay (LOS) is an important indicator of the efficiency of hospital management by improving the quality of treatment, and increased hospital profit with more efficient bed management. The purpose of this study was to model the distribution of LOS as a function of patient’s age, and the Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG), based on electronic medical records of a large tertiary care hospital. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Materials and Methods: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Information related to the research subjects were retrieved from a database of patients admitted to King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between January 2014 and December 2016. Subjects’ confidential information was masked from the investigators. The data analyses were reported visually, descriptively, and analytically using Cox proportional hazard regression model to predict the risk of long-stay when patients’ age and the DRG are considered as antecedent risk factors. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Predicting the risk of long stay depends significantly on the age at admission, and the DRG to which a patient belongs to. We demonstrated the validity of the Cox regression model for the available data as the proportionality assumption is shown to be satisfied. Two examples were presented to demonstrate the utility of the Cox model in this regard.</span></span>展开更多
The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by re...The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by reducing LOS becomes an important issue in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the Japanese medical payment system (DPC/PDPS) on LOS for cataract operations. The Box-Cox transformation model, Nawata’s estimators and Hausman tests were used in the analysis. To evaluate the effects, we analyzed a dataset obtained from 34 DPC hospitals (Hp1-34) where one-eye cataract operations were performed both before (April 2008-March 2010) and after (April 2010-March 2012) the 2010 revision and there were more than 500 patients. The dataset contained information from 32,593 patients. We did not admit the effect of the 2010 revision in this study, and there were large differences LOS among hospitals, even after removing the influences of factors such as patient characteristics and types of principal diseases.展开更多
Background: In-hospital mortality is a key indicator of the quality of care. Studies so far have demonstrated the influence of patient and hospital-related factors on in-hospital mortality. Currently, new variables, s...Background: In-hospital mortality is a key indicator of the quality of care. Studies so far have demonstrated the influence of patient and hospital-related factors on in-hospital mortality. Currently, new variables, such as components of metabolic syndrome as comorbid conditions, are being incorporated as independent risk factors. We aimed to identify which individual, clinical and hospital characteristics are related to hospital mortality. Objectives: Demonstrate that the Cox proportional hazard model is not appropriate for the analysis of hospital mortality data when diagnostic-related groups are incorporated in the covariate structure. Methods: A retrospective single-center observational study design was used. Sampling was conducted between January 2016 and December 2018. Patients over 10 years, admitted to the emergency department with a precited stay of at least 1 hour were included. Multivariate Cox regression for survival data analyses was employed to analyze the data. Results: The sample consisted of 5897 patients. The mean age of all patients was 32.21 ± 0.29 years old, and the mean length of stay (LOS) was 9.47 ± 0.16 hours. We also categorized patients according to five Diagnosis Related Groups (DGR). Among the patients,1308 suffered from acute leukemia, 1127 had endocrine diseases, 1173 with kidney diseases, and 1016 had respiratory problems. At least one component of metabolic syndrome was present in 27.5% of the patients. During the observation period, 2299 (39%) died in hospital, and 3598 (61%) were discharged alive. We used the multivariate Cox regression non-proportional hazard model to evaluate the joint effect of these factors on the “Length of Stay” or LOS (the dependent variable of Cox regression). Age at admission, the presence of metabolic syndrome, and the DRG were significantly associated with the LOS.展开更多
基金supported by The Youth Science Foundation of Sichuan Province(Nos.2022NSFSC1230,2022NSFSC1231,and 23NSFSC5321)the Science and Technology Innovation Seedling Project of Sichuan Province(No.MZGC20230080)+2 种基金the General project of national Natural Science Foundation of China(No.12075039)the Youth Science Foundation of China(No.12105030)the Key project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U19A2086)。
文摘To accurately reconstruct the tomographic gamma scanning(TGS)transmission measurement image,this study optimized the transmission reconstruction equation based on the actual situation of TGS transmission measurement.Using the transmission reconstruction equation and the Monte Carlo program Geant4,an innovative virtual trajectory length model was constructed.This model integrated the solving process for the trajectory length and detection efficiency within the same model.To mitigate the influence of the angular distribution ofγ-rays emitted by the transmitted source at the detector,the transport processes of numerous particles traversing a virtual nuclear waste barrel with a density of zero were simulated.Consequently,a certain amount of information was captured at each step of particle transport.Simultaneously,the model addressed the nonuniform detection efficiency of the detector end face by considering whether the energy deposition of particles in the detector equaled their initial energy.Two models were established to validate the accuracy and reliability of the virtual trajectory length model.Model 1 was a simplified nuclear waste barrel,whereas Model 2 closely resembled the actual structure of a nuclear waste barrel.The results indicated that the proposed virtual trajectory length model significantly enhanced the precision of the trajectory length determination,substantially increasing the quality of the reconstructed images.For example,the reconstructed images of Model 2 using the“point-to-point”and average trajectory models revealed a signalto-noise ratio increase of 375.0%and 112.7%,respectively.Thus,the virtual trajectory length model proposed in this study holds paramount significance for the precise reconstruction of transmission images.Moreover,it can provide support for the accurate detection of radioactive activity in nuclear waste barrels.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61105048,60972165)the Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China(No.20110092120034)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2010240)the Technology Foundation for Selected Overseas Chinese Scholar,Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of China(No.6722000008)the Open Fund of Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory for Remote Measuring and Control(No.YCCK201005)
文摘An improved Gaussian mixture model （GMM）- based clustering method is proposed for the difficult case where the true distribution of data is against the assumed GMM. First, an improved model selection criterion, the completed likelihood minimum message length criterion, is derived. It can measure both the goodness-of-fit of the candidate GMM to the data and the goodness-of-partition of the data. Secondly, by utilizing the proposed criterion as the clustering objective function, an improved expectation- maximization （EM） algorithm is developed, which can avoid poor local optimal solutions compared to the standard EM algorithm for estimating the model parameters. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can rectify the over-fitting tendency of representative GMM-based clustering approaches and can robustly provide more accurate clustering results.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFD0600401)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2572019CP08)
文摘Korean larch(Larix olgensis)is one of the main tree species for aff orestation and timber production in northeast China.However,its timber quality and growth ability are largely infl uenced by crown size,structure and shape.The majority of crown models are static models based on tree size and stand characteristics from temporary sample plots,but crown dynamic models has seldom been constructed.Therefore,this study aimed to develop height to crown base(HCB)and crown length(CL)dynamic models using the branch mortality technique for a Korean larch plantation.The nonlinear mixed-eff ects model with random eff ects,variance functions and correlation structures,was used to build HCB and CL dynamic models.The data were obtained from 95 sample trees of 19 plots in Meng JiaGang forest farm in Northeast China.The results showed that HCB progressively increases as tree age,tree height growth(HT growth)and diameter at breast height growth(DBH growth).The CL was increased with tree age in 20 years ago,and subsequently stabilized.HT growth,DBH growth stand basal area(BAS)and crown competition factor(CCF)signifi cantly infl uenced HCB and CL.The HCB was positively correlated with BAS,HT growth and DBH growth,but negatively correlated with CCF.The CL was positively correlated with BAS and CCF,but negatively correlated with DBH growth.Model fi tting and validation confi rmed that the mixed-eff ects model considering the stand and tree level random eff ects was accurate and reliable for predicting the HCB and CL dynamics.However,the models involving adding variance functions and time series correlation structure could not completely remove heterogeneity and autocorrelation,and the fi tting precision of the models was reduced.Therefore,from the point of view of application,we should take care to avoid setting up over-complex models.The HCB and CL dynamic models in our study may also be incorporated into stand growth and yield model systems in China.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (the 973 Program,Grant No.2010CB951102)the National Supporting Plan Program of China (Grants No.2007BAB28B01 and 2008BAB42B03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50709042),and the Regional Water Theme in the Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
文摘In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments （data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments）, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD （simple hydrology） model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization （PSO） method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.
文摘An elastic vibration model for high length diameter ratio spinning rocket with attitude control system which can be used for trajectory simulation is established. The basic theory of elastic dynamics and vibration dynamics were both used to set up the elastic vibration model of rocket body. In order to study the problem more conveniently, the rocket's body was simplified to be an even beam with two free ends. The model was validated by simulation results and the test data.
基金the State Key Development Program for Basic Research of China (No. G2000048005) the SINOPEC (No.X503023).
文摘A periodic packing mode of trickle-bed reactor (TBR) for the gas limited reaction was proposed. Hy-drogenation of 2-ethylanthraquinone over Pd/Al2O3 in a laboratory-scale TBR was taken as a test reaction for determining whether the periodic packing mode is advantageous. The effects of operating conditions and packing type on TBR performance were experimentally examined to demonstrate the cause-effect relationships. A mathe-matic model of TBR considering axial dispersion and fractional wetting was developed to quantitatively illuminate the reason of performance enhancement.
基金This paper is supported by the Foundation for Research Project of ChinaCommunications Second Highway Survey Design and ResearchInstitute .
文摘The theoretical results of axial force distribution models differ greatly from tests because of the complication of the rock type material. A three-parameter combined-power model is proposed by curves fitting the test data recorded from the pull tests on anchoring bars used in different engineering projects. Based on the comparison of the mechanical characteristics of shaft anchors and prestressed tendons, a two-parameter combined-power function model for prestressed tendons is proposed. The bounded length derived from the model and the suggested values of the parameters are also proposed. Compared with the Gaussian model, the three-parameter combined-power model is more precise and simple in expression. Results also suggest that the bounded length calculated from the average stress method is not safe enough.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41471316,41401456)A Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions-PAPD(Grant No.164320H101)+1 种基金Major University Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.13KJA170001)the financial support provided by the PhD Scholarship from Eurasic Pacific Uninet for collaboration research in Austria
文摘Although many studies have investigated slope gradient uncertainty derived from Digital Elevation Models(DEMs), the research concerning slope length uncertainty is far from mature. This discrepancy affects the availability and accuracy of soil erosion as well as hydrological modeling. This study investigates the formation and distribution of existing errors and uncertainties in slope length derivation based on 5-m resolution DEMs of the Loess Plateau in the middle of China. The slope length accuracy in three different landform areas is examined to analyse algorithm effects. The experiments indicate that the accuracy of the flat test area is lower than that of the rougher areas. The value from the specific contributing area(SCA) method is greater than the cumulative slope length(CSL), and the differences between these two methods arise from the shape of the upslope area. The variation of mean slope length derived from various DEM resolutions and landforms. The slope length accuracy decreases with increasing grid size and terrain complexity at the six test sites. A regression model is built to express the relationship of mean slope length with DEM resolution less than 85 m and terrain complexity represented by gully density. The results support the understanding of the slope length accuracy, thereby aiding in the effective evaluation of the modeling effect of surface process.
文摘The object of this study is to propose a statistical model for predicting the Expected Path Length (expected number of steps the attacker will take, starting from the initial state to compromise the security goal—EPL) in a cyber-attack. The model we developed is based on utilizing vulnerability information along with having host centric attack graph. Utilizing the developed model, one can identify the interaction among the vulnerabilities and individual variables (risk factors) that drive the Expected Path Length. Gaining a better understanding of the relationship between vulnerabilities and their interactions can provide security administrators a better view and an understanding of their security status. In addition, we have also ranked the attributable variables and their contribution in estimating the subject length. Thus, one can utilize the ranking process to take precautions and actions to minimize Expected Path Length.
基金Project(40074001) supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (SD2003 -10) supported by the Open ResearchFund Programof the Key Laboratory of Geomatics and Digital Technilogy ,Shandong Province
文摘Gauss-Markov model is frequently used in data analysis; the analysis and estimation of its parameters is always a hot issue. Based on the information theory and from the viewpoint of optimal information on description—minimum description length, this paper discusses a case: where there is multi-collinearity in the coefficient matrix, principal component estimation is used to estimate and select the original parameters, so as to reduce its multi-collinearity and improve its credibility. From the viewpoint of minimum description length, this paper discusses the approach of selecting principal components and uses this approach to solve a practical problem.
基金Supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(2011CB706501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51276157)
文摘A detailed investigation of a thermodynamic process in a structured packing distillation column is of great impor- tance in prediction of process efficiency. In order to keep the simplicity of an equilibrium stage model and the accu- racy of a non-equilibrium stage model, a hybrid model is developed to predict the structured packing column in cryogenic air separation. A general solution process for the equilibrium stage model is developed to solve the set of equations of the hybrid model, in which a separation efficiency function is introduced to obtain the resulting tri-diagonal matrix and its solution by the Thomas algorithm. As an example, the algorithm is applied to analyze an upper column of a cryogenic air separation plant with the capacity of 17000 m3·h-1. Rigorous simulations are conducted using Aspen RATEFRAC module to validate the approach. The temperature and composition distributions are in a good agreement with the two methods. The effects of inlet/outlet position and flow rate on the temperature and composition distributions in the column are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model and the solution algorithms are effective in analvzin~ the distillation process for a a cryogenic structured packing column.
文摘Based on the finite element simulation of profile extrusion process, the effect of local extrusion ratio, die bearing area and the distance between extrusion cylindrical center and local die orfice center on mental flow velocity was investigated. The laws of deformed metal flow on profile extrusion process were obtained. The smaller the local extrusion ratio, the faster the metal flow velocity; the smaller the area of die bearing, the faster the metal flow velocity; the smaller the distance of position of local die orifice(the closer the distance of position of local die orifice from extrusion cylindrical axis), the faster the metal flow velocity. The effect of main parameters of die structure on metal flow velocity was integrated and the mathematical model of determination of die bearing length in design of aluminum profile extrusion die was proposed. The calculated results with proposed model were well compared with the experimental results. The proposed model can be applied to determine die bearing length in design of aluminum profile extrusion die.
文摘We propose a new method to obtain the correlation length of gapped XXZ spin 1/2 antiferromagnetic chains. Following the relativistic quantum field theory in space-time dimensions, we use the exact dispersion of massive spinon to calculate the correlation length for XXZ spin 1/2 chain. We conjecture that the correlation length for other 1D lattice models can be obtained in the same way. Relation between dispersion and the oscillated correlation of gapped incommensurate lattice models is also discussed.
文摘Computations involved in Bayesian approach to practical model selection problems are usually very difficult. Computational simplifications are sometimes possible, but are not generally applicable. There is a large literature available on a methodology based on information theory called Minimum Description Length (MDL). It is described here how many of these techniques are either directly Bayesian in nature, or are very good objective approximations to Bayesian solutions. First, connections between the Bayesian approach and MDL are theoretically explored;thereafter a few illustrations are provided to describe how MDL can give useful computational simplifications.
基金Supported by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801064,71790611)Central Asia Atmosphere Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘In this study, non-cumulative slope length(NCSL) calculation method and spatial analytical calculation(SAC) method were respectively applied to extract slope length and slope length factor from 10 sample areas, which are located in Ansai County, north Shaanxi Province. The comparison of computation precision between variable DEM resolutions showed that NCSL was superior to SAC entirely. And the results were best when the DEM resolutions were 5 and 10 m. Besides, the results of slope length factor were nearly the same under the two conditions. So DEM of 10 m resolution can be used to extract slope length.
文摘Due to unforeseen climate change,complicated chronic diseases,and mutation of viruses’hospital administration’s top challenge is to know about the Length of stay(LOS)of different diseased patients in the hospitals.Hospital management does not exactly know when the existing patient leaves the hospital;this information could be crucial for hospital management.It could allow them to take more patients for admission.As a result,hospitals face many problems managing available resources and new patients in getting entries for their prompt treatment.Therefore,a robust model needs to be designed to help hospital administration predict patients’LOS to resolve these issues.For this purpose,a very large-sized data(more than 2.3 million patients’data)related to New-York Hospitals patients and containing information about a wide range of diseases including Bone-Marrow,Tuberculosis,Intestinal Transplant,Mental illness,Leukaemia,Spinal cord injury,Trauma,Rehabilitation,Kidney and Alcoholic Patients,HIV Patients,Malignant Breast disorder,Asthma,Respiratory distress syndrome,etc.have been analyzed to predict the LOS.We selected six Machine learning(ML)models named:Multiple linear regression(MLR),Lasso regression(LR),Ridge regression(RR),Decision tree regression(DTR),Extreme gradient boosting regression(XGBR),and Random Forest regression(RFR).The selected models’predictive performance was checked using R square andMean square error(MSE)as the performance evaluation criteria.Our results revealed the superior predictive performance of the RFRmodel,both in terms of RS score(92%)and MSE score(5),among all selected models.By Exploratory data analysis(EDA),we conclude that maximumstay was between 0 to 5 days with the meantime of each patient 5.3 days and more than 50 years old patients spent more days in the hospital.Based on the average LOS,results revealed that the patients with diagnoses related to birth complications spent more days in the hospital than other diseases.This finding could help predict the future length of hospital stay of new patients,which will help the hospital administration estimate and manage their resources efficiently.
基金Thailand Science ResearchInnovation Fund,and King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok Contract No.KMUTNB-FF-65-45.
文摘The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(extended EWMA)control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift.The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the average run length(ARL).Due to the deriving explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA control chart for trend autoregressive or trend AR(p)model has not been reported previously.The aim of this study is to derive the explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA con-trol chart for the trend AR(p)model as well as the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models with exponential white noise.The analytical solution accuracy was obtained with the extended EWMA control chart and was compared to the numer-ical integral equation(NIE)method.The results show that the ARL obtained by the explicit formula and the NIE method is hardly different,but the explicit for-mula can help decrease the computational(CPU)time.Furthermore,this is also expanded to comparative performance with the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(EWMA)control chart.The performance of the extended EWMA control chart is better than the EWMA control chart for all situations,both the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models.Finally,the analytical solution of ARL is applied to real-world data in the healthfield,such as COVID-19 data in the United Kingdom and Sweden,to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.
文摘<strong>Background: </strong><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">One of the main objectives of hospital managements is to control the length of stay (LOS). Successful control of LOS of inpatients will result in reduction in the cost of care, decrease in nosocomial infections, medication side effects, and better management of the limited number of available patients’ beds. The length of stay (LOS) is an important indicator of the efficiency of hospital management by improving the quality of treatment, and increased hospital profit with more efficient bed management. The purpose of this study was to model the distribution of LOS as a function of patient’s age, and the Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG), based on electronic medical records of a large tertiary care hospital. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Materials and Methods: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Information related to the research subjects were retrieved from a database of patients admitted to King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia between January 2014 and December 2016. Subjects’ confidential information was masked from the investigators. The data analyses were reported visually, descriptively, and analytically using Cox proportional hazard regression model to predict the risk of long-stay when patients’ age and the DRG are considered as antecedent risk factors. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Predicting the risk of long stay depends significantly on the age at admission, and the DRG to which a patient belongs to. We demonstrated the validity of the Cox regression model for the available data as the proportionality assumption is shown to be satisfied. Two examples were presented to demonstrate the utility of the Cox model in this regard.</span></span>
文摘The Japanese medical costs for cataract treatments reached 270 billion yen in fiscal year 2012. Since the length of stay (LOS) in hospital is much longer than other major countries, controlling the medical costs by reducing LOS becomes an important issue in Japan. In this paper, we evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the Japanese medical payment system (DPC/PDPS) on LOS for cataract operations. The Box-Cox transformation model, Nawata’s estimators and Hausman tests were used in the analysis. To evaluate the effects, we analyzed a dataset obtained from 34 DPC hospitals (Hp1-34) where one-eye cataract operations were performed both before (April 2008-March 2010) and after (April 2010-March 2012) the 2010 revision and there were more than 500 patients. The dataset contained information from 32,593 patients. We did not admit the effect of the 2010 revision in this study, and there were large differences LOS among hospitals, even after removing the influences of factors such as patient characteristics and types of principal diseases.
文摘Background: In-hospital mortality is a key indicator of the quality of care. Studies so far have demonstrated the influence of patient and hospital-related factors on in-hospital mortality. Currently, new variables, such as components of metabolic syndrome as comorbid conditions, are being incorporated as independent risk factors. We aimed to identify which individual, clinical and hospital characteristics are related to hospital mortality. Objectives: Demonstrate that the Cox proportional hazard model is not appropriate for the analysis of hospital mortality data when diagnostic-related groups are incorporated in the covariate structure. Methods: A retrospective single-center observational study design was used. Sampling was conducted between January 2016 and December 2018. Patients over 10 years, admitted to the emergency department with a precited stay of at least 1 hour were included. Multivariate Cox regression for survival data analyses was employed to analyze the data. Results: The sample consisted of 5897 patients. The mean age of all patients was 32.21 ± 0.29 years old, and the mean length of stay (LOS) was 9.47 ± 0.16 hours. We also categorized patients according to five Diagnosis Related Groups (DGR). Among the patients,1308 suffered from acute leukemia, 1127 had endocrine diseases, 1173 with kidney diseases, and 1016 had respiratory problems. At least one component of metabolic syndrome was present in 27.5% of the patients. During the observation period, 2299 (39%) died in hospital, and 3598 (61%) were discharged alive. We used the multivariate Cox regression non-proportional hazard model to evaluate the joint effect of these factors on the “Length of Stay” or LOS (the dependent variable of Cox regression). Age at admission, the presence of metabolic syndrome, and the DRG were significantly associated with the LOS.
