An artificial neural network （ANN） is used to model the middle atmosphere using a large number of TIMED/SABER limb sounding temperature profiles. A three-layer feed-forward network is chosen based on the back-propag...An artificial neural network （ANN） is used to model the middle atmosphere using a large number of TIMED/SABER limb sounding temperature profiles. A three-layer feed-forward network is chosen based on the back-propagation （BP） algorithm. Latitude, longitude, and height are chosen as the input vectors of the network while temperature is the output vector. The temperature observations during the period from 13 January through 16 March 2007, which are in the same satellite yaw, are taken as samples to train an ANN. Results suggest that the network has high quality for modeling spatial variations of temperature. Quantitative comparisons between the ANN outputs and those from the popular empirical NRLMSISE-00 model illustrate their generally consistent features and some specific differences. The NRLMSISE-00 model＇s zonal mean temperatures are too high by ～6 K-10 K near the stratopause, and the amplitude and phase of the planetary wave number 1 activity are different in some respects from the ANN simulations above 45-50 km, suggesting improvement is needed in the NRLMSISE-00 model for more accurate simulation near and above the stratopause.展开更多
利用美国海军研究实验室在MSIS 系列模型基础上发展的大气模型NRLMSISE-00,模拟研究了2001 年-2013 年中国上空过渡流区80～140 km 高度的大气状态.对于中国东部和中部过渡流区,基于模拟数据得到的月平均结果显示大气密度和温度呈现-致...利用美国海军研究实验室在MSIS 系列模型基础上发展的大气模型NRLMSISE-00,模拟研究了2001 年-2013 年中国上空过渡流区80～140 km 高度的大气状态.对于中国东部和中部过渡流区,基于模拟数据得到的月平均结果显示大气密度和温度呈现-致的变化趋势,还表现出与太阳活动的显著关联.谱分析的结果显示,在90 km 高度以上大气密度呈现半年周期变化,在90～110 km 高度范围这种半年变化的幅度随纬度增大.在100 km 高度,上半年出现的半年周期过程中密度的最大、最小值分别出现在3 月和6 月,明显超前中、高热层的半年周期过程.展开更多
Background:With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic,all existing health protocols were tested under the worst health crisis humanity has experienced since the Black Death in the 14th century.Countries in Latin Amer...Background:With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic,all existing health protocols were tested under the worst health crisis humanity has experienced since the Black Death in the 14th century.Countries in Latin America have been the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic,with more than 1.5 million people killed.Worldwide health measures have included quarantines,border closures,social distancing,and mask use,among others.In particular,Chile implemented total or partial quarantine measures depending on the number of infections in each region of the country.Therefore,it is necessary to study the effectiveness of these quarantines in relation to the public health measures implemented by government entities at the national level.Objective:The main objective of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of national-and region-level quarantines in Chile during the pandemic based on information published by the Chilean Ministry of Health,and answers to the following question are sought:Were quarantine measures in Chile effective during the COVID-19 pandemic?Methods:The causal effect between the rates of COVID-19 infections and the population rates in Phase 1 and Phase 2 quarantines in the period from March 2020 to March 2021 in different regions of Chile were evaluated using intervention analyses obtained through Bayesian structural time series models.In addition,the Kendall correlation coefficient obtained through the copula approach was used to evaluate the comovement between these rates.Results:In 75%of the Chilean regions under study(12 regions out of a total of 16),an effective Phase 1 quarantine,which was implemented to control and reduce the number of cases of COVID-19 infection,was observed.The main regions that experienced a decrease in cases were those located in the north and center of Chile.Regarding Phase 2,the COVID-19 pandemic was effectively managed in 31%(5 out of 16)of the regions.In the southcentral and extreme southern regions of Chile,the effectiveness of these phases was null.Conclusion:The findings indicate that in the northern and central regions of Chile,the Phase 1 quarantine application period was an effective strategy to prevent an increase in COVID-19 infections.The same observation was made with respect to Phase 2,which was effective in five regions of northern Chile;in the rest of the regions,the effectiveness of these phases was weak or null.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40774087
文摘An artificial neural network （ANN） is used to model the middle atmosphere using a large number of TIMED/SABER limb sounding temperature profiles. A three-layer feed-forward network is chosen based on the back-propagation （BP） algorithm. Latitude, longitude, and height are chosen as the input vectors of the network while temperature is the output vector. The temperature observations during the period from 13 January through 16 March 2007, which are in the same satellite yaw, are taken as samples to train an ANN. Results suggest that the network has high quality for modeling spatial variations of temperature. Quantitative comparisons between the ANN outputs and those from the popular empirical NRLMSISE-00 model illustrate their generally consistent features and some specific differences. The NRLMSISE-00 model＇s zonal mean temperatures are too high by ～6 K-10 K near the stratopause, and the amplitude and phase of the planetary wave number 1 activity are different in some respects from the ANN simulations above 45-50 km, suggesting improvement is needed in the NRLMSISE-00 model for more accurate simulation near and above the stratopause.
文摘利用美国海军研究实验室在MSIS 系列模型基础上发展的大气模型NRLMSISE-00,模拟研究了2001 年-2013 年中国上空过渡流区80～140 km 高度的大气状态.对于中国东部和中部过渡流区,基于模拟数据得到的月平均结果显示大气密度和温度呈现-致的变化趋势,还表现出与太阳活动的显著关联.谱分析的结果显示,在90 km 高度以上大气密度呈现半年周期变化,在90～110 km 高度范围这种半年变化的幅度随纬度增大.在100 km 高度,上半年出现的半年周期过程中密度的最大、最小值分别出现在3 月和6 月,明显超前中、高热层的半年周期过程.
文摘Background:With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic,all existing health protocols were tested under the worst health crisis humanity has experienced since the Black Death in the 14th century.Countries in Latin America have been the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic,with more than 1.5 million people killed.Worldwide health measures have included quarantines,border closures,social distancing,and mask use,among others.In particular,Chile implemented total or partial quarantine measures depending on the number of infections in each region of the country.Therefore,it is necessary to study the effectiveness of these quarantines in relation to the public health measures implemented by government entities at the national level.Objective:The main objective of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of national-and region-level quarantines in Chile during the pandemic based on information published by the Chilean Ministry of Health,and answers to the following question are sought:Were quarantine measures in Chile effective during the COVID-19 pandemic?Methods:The causal effect between the rates of COVID-19 infections and the population rates in Phase 1 and Phase 2 quarantines in the period from March 2020 to March 2021 in different regions of Chile were evaluated using intervention analyses obtained through Bayesian structural time series models.In addition,the Kendall correlation coefficient obtained through the copula approach was used to evaluate the comovement between these rates.Results:In 75%of the Chilean regions under study(12 regions out of a total of 16),an effective Phase 1 quarantine,which was implemented to control and reduce the number of cases of COVID-19 infection,was observed.The main regions that experienced a decrease in cases were those located in the north and center of Chile.Regarding Phase 2,the COVID-19 pandemic was effectively managed in 31%(5 out of 16)of the regions.In the southcentral and extreme southern regions of Chile,the effectiveness of these phases was null.Conclusion:The findings indicate that in the northern and central regions of Chile,the Phase 1 quarantine application period was an effective strategy to prevent an increase in COVID-19 infections.The same observation was made with respect to Phase 2,which was effective in five regions of northern Chile;in the rest of the regions,the effectiveness of these phases was weak or null.
