Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit signifi...Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.展开更多
In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statist...In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.展开更多
In this study,copper extraction from low-grade oxide-sulfide ores was investigated using a leaching method combined with response surface methodology(RSM)to optimize operational conditions and assess leaching kinetics...In this study,copper extraction from low-grade oxide-sulfide ores was investigated using a leaching method combined with response surface methodology(RSM)to optimize operational conditions and assess leaching kinetics.Given copper's extensive industrial applications,sustainable recovery from low-grade ores is critical.Five key parameters-acid concentration,leaching time,particle size,temperature,and solids percentage-were identified as major influences on copper recovery.The results revealed that leaching time and solids percentage,along with interactions between temperature-time and temperature-solids percentage,had the most significant effects.Optimal conditions for 80% copper recovery while minimizing iron recovery below 3% included an acid concentration of 1.21 mol L^(-1),a leaching time of 108 min,a particle size of 438μm,a temperature of 45℃,and a solids percentage of 18.2%.Leaching kinetics were analyzed using shrinking core models,with the Dickinson model best describing the process,showing an activation energy of 32.63 kJ mol^(-1),indicative of mixed diffusion and chemical reaction control.The final kinetic model effectively predicted the influence of key parameters.These findings highlight the importance of optimizing process variables and selecting suitable kinetic models to enhance extraction efficiency,reduce costs,and improve sustainability in copper recovery.展开更多
Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,su...Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,such as textile,medicine,and automobile industries,it has greater commercial importance.The crop’s performance is greatly influenced by prevailing weather dynamics.As climate changes,assessing how weather changes affect crop performance is essential.Among various techniques that are available,crop models are the most effective and widely used tools for predicting yields.Results This study compares statistical and machine learning models to assess their ability to predict cotton yield across major producing districts of Karnataka,India,utilizing a long-term dataset spanning from 1990 to 2023 that includes yield and weather factors.The artificial neural networks(ANNs)performed superiorly with acceptable yield deviations ranging within±10%during both vegetative stage(F1)and mid stage(F2)for cotton.The model evaluation metrics such as root mean square error(RMSE),normalized root mean square error(nRMSE),and modelling efficiency(EF)were also within the acceptance limits in most districts.Furthermore,the tested ANN model was used to assess the importance of the dominant weather factors influencing crop yield in each district.Specifically,the use of morning relative humidity as an individual parameter and its interaction with maximum and minimum tempera-ture had a major influence on cotton yield in most of the yield predicted districts.These differences highlighted the differential interactions of weather factors in each district for cotton yield formation,highlighting individual response of each weather factor under different soils and management conditions over the major cotton growing districts of Karnataka.Conclusions Compared with statistical models,machine learning models such as ANNs proved higher efficiency in forecasting the cotton yield due to their ability to consider the interactive effects of weather factors on yield forma-tion at different growth stages.This highlights the best suitability of ANNs for yield forecasting in rainfed conditions and for the study on relative impacts of weather factors on yield.Thus,the study aims to provide valuable insights to support stakeholders in planning effective crop management strategies and formulating relevant policies.展开更多
Coral reef limestone(CRL)constitutes a distinctive marine carbonate formation with complex mechanical properties.This study investigates the multiscale damage and fracture mechanisms of CRL through integrated experime...Coral reef limestone(CRL)constitutes a distinctive marine carbonate formation with complex mechanical properties.This study investigates the multiscale damage and fracture mechanisms of CRL through integrated experimental testing,digital core technology,and theoretical modelling.Two CRL types with contrasting mesostructures were characterized across three scales.Macroscopically,CRL-I and CRL-II exhibited mean compressive strengths of 8.46 and 5.17 MPa,respectively.Mesoscopically,CRL-I featured small-scale highly interconnected pores,whilst CRL-II developed larger stratified pores with diminished connectivity.Microscopically,both CRL matrices demonstrated remarkable similarity in mineral composition and mechanical properties.A novel voxel average-based digital core scaling methodology was developed to facilitate numerical simulation of cross-scale damage processes,revealing network-progressive failure in CRL-I versus directional-brittle failure in CRL-II.Furthermore,a damage statistical constitutive model based on digital core technology and mesoscopic homogenisation theory established quantitative relationships between microelement strength distribution and macroscopic mechanical behavior.These findings illuminate the fundamental mechanisms through which mesoscopic structure governs the macroscopic mechanical properties of CRL.展开更多
The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of ...The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.展开更多
Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a ...Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a statistical damage constitutive model and energy evolution mechanisms.Initially,integrating the principle of effective stress and the Hoek-Brown criterion,a statistical damage constitutive model for gas-bearing coal is established and validated through triaxial compression tests under different gas pressures to verify its accuracy and applicability.Subsequently,employing energy evolution mechanism,two energy characteristic parameters(elastic energy proportion and dissipated energy proportion)are analyzed.Based on the damage stress thresholds,the damage evolution characteristics of gas bearing coal were explored.Finally,by integrating energy characteristic parameters with damage parameters,a novel brittleness index is proposed.The results demonstrate that the theoretical curves derived from the statistical damage constitutive model closely align with the test curves,accurately reflecting the stress−strain characteristics of gas-bearing coal and revealing the stress drop and softening characteristics of coal in the post-peak stage.The shape parameter and scale parameter represent the brittleness and macroscopic strength of the coal,respectively.As gas pressure increases from 1 to 5 MPa,the shape parameter and the scale parameter decrease by 22.18%and 60.45%,respectively,indicating a reduction in both brittleness and strength of the coal.Parameters such as maximum damage rate and peak elastic energy storage limit positively correlate with coal brittleness.The brittleness index effectively captures the brittleness characteristics and reveals a decrease in brittleness and an increase in sensitivity to plastic deformation under higher gas pressure conditions.展开更多
This study presents an innovative development of the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,explicitly adapted for the examination of time series data distinguished by seasonal autoregressive moving ...This study presents an innovative development of the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,explicitly adapted for the examination of time series data distinguished by seasonal autoregressive moving average behavior—SARMA(1,1)L under exponential white noise.Unlike previous works that rely on simplified models such as AR(1)or assume independence,this research derives for the first time an exact two-sided Average Run Length(ARL)formula for theModified EWMAchart under SARMA(1,1)L conditions,using a mathematically rigorous Fredholm integral approach.The derived formulas are validated against numerical integral equation(NIE)solutions,showing strong agreement and significantly reduced computational burden.Additionally,a performance comparison index(PCI)is introduced to assess the chart’s detection capability.Results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits superior sensitivity to mean shifts in autocorrelated environments,outperforming existing approaches.The findings offer a new,efficient framework for real-time quality control in complex seasonal processes,with potential applications in environmental monitoring and intelligent manufacturing systems.展开更多
Rock is exposed to the combined effects of the confining pressure and strain rate during the dynamic excavation process in deeply buried high-stress tunnels.Therefore,a constitutive model that considers both the strai...Rock is exposed to the combined effects of the confining pressure and strain rate during the dynamic excavation process in deeply buried high-stress tunnels.Therefore,a constitutive model that considers both the strain rate and the confining pressure effect plays a crucial role in evaluating the disturbance and stability of deeply buried tunnels.Taking mudstone as an example,a series of tests were performed to reveal the combined effect of the strain rate and confining pressure on the mechanical behavior of soft rock,and a novel statistical damage constitutive model was proposed.The confining pressures of 0 MPa,10 MPa,20 MPa,and 30 MPa and strain rates of 10^(-5)s^(-1),10^(-4)s^(-1),10^(-3)s^(-1),and 10^(-2)s^(-1)were investigated.The results show that the rock strength increases with increasing confining pressure and strain rate,and that the contributions of these two factors can be considered independent of each other.However,an increase in the confining pressure reduces the degree of rock damage and increases the ductility of the sample at failure,whereas the strain rate has the opposite effect.Finally,a full deformation process damage model considering strain rate effect is established based on a modified Hoek‒Brown strength criterion considering the strain rate.The model can capture the nonlinear increase in strength and elastic modulus with increasing confining pressure and strain rate,reproducing the brittle‒ductile transition characteristics and the full deformation process.展开更多
Shallow-water seabed reverberation presents a critical disturbance in acoustic propagation,affecting the target detection performance of monostatic sonar.This paper proposes a novel seabed reverberation model integrat...Shallow-water seabed reverberation presents a critical disturbance in acoustic propagation,affecting the target detection performance of monostatic sonar.This paper proposes a novel seabed reverberation model integrating Gaussian beam tracing with seabed scattering physics.The model synthesizes time-domain reverberation signals by superimposing scattering signals received across multiple propagation paths.It accurately resolves scattering signals along distinct paths and enables simulation of reverberation under diverse shallow-water environments by adjusting the marine parameters.Furthermore,we model the seabed reverberation signals in the time domain and the space domain for a cylindrical transceiver array,and provide a detailed statistical characterization of the simulated seabed reverberation signals.Finally,shallow-water seabed reverberation experiments were conducted with a cylindrical transceiver array.Comparisons between shallow-water seabed reverberation measurements and simulation estimates at various sites and transceiver depths demonstrate that the proposed seabed reverberation model can efficiently simulate shallow-water seabed reverberation.展开更多
Statistical expression of vapour pressure equations of metals is derived from the Debye model.The statistical distribution of T_(-p) ensemble is presented in an in-elab- orate mode and the partition function is define...Statistical expression of vapour pressure equations of metals is derived from the Debye model.The statistical distribution of T_(-p) ensemble is presented in an in-elab- orate mode and the partition function is defined.The vapour pressure of eleven metals have been calculated with the Debye equation and compared with those given by the E- instein equation and empirical equation.Comparison of results of calculation from dif- ferent methods show their evident accordance within the same orders of magnitude.展开更多
Understanding the temperature-dependent mechanical behavior and fracture characteristics of granite is crucial for many engineering projects.In this study,the real-time temperature curves of granite specimens were obt...Understanding the temperature-dependent mechanical behavior and fracture characteristics of granite is crucial for many engineering projects.In this study,the real-time temperature curves of granite specimens were obtained during the heating and cooling process,and the thermal treatment tests were conducted.The physical properties of the specimen before and after thermal treatment,including mass,volume,and P-wave velocity,were measured.The acoustic emission(AE)signal in the uniaxial compression is monitored.The results indicate that the physical properties of granite deteriorate with temperature,while the mechanical properties show two effects of thermal strengthening and thermal weakening.This phenomenon is comprehensively analyzed by literature statistical data and optical microscopic observation.Furthermore,the AE characteristic is strongly dependent on temperature.High temperature induces more AE ring count to appear in the early stage of loading.As the temperature increases,the crack initiation stress decreases and the table crack propagation stage becomes longer.The attenuation of high-frequency signals and the enhancement of low-frequency signals are related to the development and interaction mechanism of thermally-induced crack and stress-induced crack.At 600℃,the global b-value increases significantly.Meanwhile,the evolution of dynamic b-value helps explain the failure process of granite under axial load after thermal treatment.In addition,a new thermo-mechanical damage statistical constitutive model of granite considering temperature effects is proposed by introducing AE parameters.The main advantages of this model can well fit the nonlinear behavior of granite in the early loading stage after thermal treatment,and reflect the failure process of granite before the peak value.展开更多
An N-gram Chinese language model incorporating linguistic rules is presented. By constructing elements lattice, rules information is incorporated in statistical frame. To facilitate the hybrid modeling, novel methods ...An N-gram Chinese language model incorporating linguistic rules is presented. By constructing elements lattice, rules information is incorporated in statistical frame. To facilitate the hybrid modeling, novel methods such as MI-based rule evaluating, weighted rule quantification and element-based n-gram probability approximation are presented. Dynamic Viterbi algorithm is adopted to search the best path in lattice. To strengthen the model, transformation-based error-driven rules learning is adopted. Applying proposed model to Chinese Pinyin-to-character conversion, high performance has been achieved in accuracy, flexibility and robustness simultaneously. Tests show correct rate achieves 94.81% instead of 90.53% using bi-gram Markov model alone. Many long-distance dependency and recursion in language can be processed effectively.展开更多
Feature selection(FS)is a pivotal pre-processing step in developing data-driven models,influencing reliability,performance and optimization.Although existing FS techniques can yield high-performance metrics for certai...Feature selection(FS)is a pivotal pre-processing step in developing data-driven models,influencing reliability,performance and optimization.Although existing FS techniques can yield high-performance metrics for certain models,they do not invariably guarantee the extraction of the most critical or impactful features.Prior literature underscores the significance of equitable FS practices and has proposed diverse methodologies for the identification of appropriate features.However,the challenge of discerning the most relevant and influential features persists,particularly in the context of the exponential growth and heterogeneity of big data—a challenge that is increasingly salient in modern artificial intelligence(AI)applications.In response,this study introduces an innovative,automated statistical method termed Farea Similarity for Feature Selection(FSFS).The FSFS approach computes a similarity metric for each feature by benchmarking it against the record-wise mean,thereby finding feature dependencies and mitigating the influence of outliers that could potentially distort evaluation outcomes.Features are subsequently ranked according to their similarity scores,with the threshold established at the average similarity score.Notably,lower FSFS values indicate higher similarity and stronger data correlations,whereas higher values suggest lower similarity.The FSFS method is designed not only to yield reliable evaluation metrics but also to reduce data complexity without compromising model performance.Comparative analyses were performed against several established techniques,including Chi-squared(CS),Correlation Coefficient(CC),Genetic Algorithm(GA),Exhaustive Approach,Greedy Stepwise Approach,Gain Ratio,and Filtered Subset Eval,using a variety of datasets such as the Experimental Dataset,Breast Cancer Wisconsin(Original),KDD CUP 1999,NSL-KDD,UNSW-NB15,and Edge-IIoT.In the absence of the FSFS method,the highest classifier accuracies observed were 60.00%,95.13%,97.02%,98.17%,95.86%,and 94.62%for the respective datasets.When the FSFS technique was integrated with data normalization,encoding,balancing,and feature importance selection processes,accuracies improved to 100.00%,97.81%,98.63%,98.94%,94.27%,and 98.46%,respectively.The FSFS method,with a computational complexity of O(fn log n),demonstrates robust scalability and is well-suited for datasets of large size,ensuring efficient processing even when the number of features is substantial.By automatically eliminating outliers and redundant data,FSFS reduces computational overhead,resulting in faster training and improved model performance.Overall,the FSFS framework not only optimizes performance but also enhances the interpretability and explainability of data-driven models,thereby facilitating more trustworthy decision-making in AI applications.展开更多
The wireless communication systems based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) have found a wide range of applications recently. In this paper, we propose a new three-dimensional(3 D) non-stationary multiple-input multipl...The wireless communication systems based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) have found a wide range of applications recently. In this paper, we propose a new three-dimensional(3 D) non-stationary multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel model for the communication links between the UAV and mobile terminal(MT). The new model originates the traditional geometry-based stochastic models(GBSMs) but considers the non-stationary propagation environment due to the rapid movements of the UAV, MT, and clusters. Meanwhile, the upgrade time evolving algorithms of time-variant channel parameters, i.e., the path number based on birth-death processes of clusters, path delays, path powers, and angles of arrival and departure, are developed and optimized. In addition, the statistical properties of proposed GBSM including autocorrelation function(ACF), cross-correlation function(CCF), and Doppler power spectrum density(DPSD) are investigated and analyzed. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed model provides a good agreement on the statistical properties with the corresponding derived theoretical ones, which indicates its usefulness for the performance evaluation and validation of the UAV based communication systems.展开更多
Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation ind...Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） from remotely-sensed imagery, dividing human-induced land degradation from vegetation dynamics due to climate change is not a trivial task. This paper presented a multilevel statistical modeling of the NDVI-rainfall relationship to detect human-induced land degradation at local and landscape scales in the Ordos Plateau of Inner Mongolia, China, and recognized that anthropogenic activities result in either positive （land restoration and re-vegetation） or negative （degradation） trends. Linear regressions were used to assess the accuracy of the multi- level statistical model. The results show that： （1） land restoration was the dominant process in the Ordos Plateau between 1998 and 2012; （2） the effect of the statistical removal of precipitation revealed areas of human-induced land degradation and improvement, the latter reflecting successful restoration projects and changes in land man- agement in many parts of the Ordos; （3） compared to a simple linear regression, multilevel statistical modeling could be used to analyze the relationship between the NDVI and rainfall and improve the accuracy of detecting the effect of human activities. Additional factors should be included when analyzing the NDVI-rainfall relationship and detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands to improve the accuracy of the approach and elimi- nate some observed non-significant residual trends.展开更多
A current statistical model for maneuvering acceleration using an adaptive extended Kalman filter（CS-MAEKF） algorithm is proposed to solve problems existing in conventional extended Kalman filters such as large esti...A current statistical model for maneuvering acceleration using an adaptive extended Kalman filter（CS-MAEKF） algorithm is proposed to solve problems existing in conventional extended Kalman filters such as large estimation error and divergent tendencies in the presence of continuous maneuvering acceleration. A membership function is introduced in this algorithm to adaptively modify the upper and lower limits of loitering vehicles＇ maneuvering acceleration and for realtime adjustment of maneuvering acceleration variance. This allows the algorithm to have superior static and dynamic performance for loitering vehicles undergoing different maneuvers. Digital simulations and dynamic flight testing show that the yaw angle accuracy of the algorithm is 30% better than conventional algorithms, and pitch and roll angle calculation precision is improved by 60%.The mean square deviation of heading and attitude angle error during dynamic flight is less than3.05°. Experimental results show that CS-MAEKF meets the application requirements of miniature loitering vehicles.展开更多
Damage statistical mechanics model of horizontal section height in the top caving was constructed in the paper. The influence factors including supporting pressure, dip angle and characteristic of coal on horizontal s...Damage statistical mechanics model of horizontal section height in the top caving was constructed in the paper. The influence factors including supporting pressure, dip angle and characteristic of coal on horizontal section height were analyzed as well. By terms of the practice project analysis, the horizontal section height increases with the increase of dip angle β and thickness of coal seam M. Dip angle of coal seam β has tremendous impact on horizontal section height, while thickness of coal seam M has slight impact. When thickness of coal seam is below 10m, horizontal section height increases sharply. While thickness exceeds 15m, it is not major factor influencing on horizontal section height any long.展开更多
Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly convergin...Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.展开更多
China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkage...China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkages between regions in China. In this study, building upon gravity model and location quotient techniques, we develop a sector-specific model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows, which is the base for making a multi-regional input-output table. In the model, we distinguish sectors with less intra-sector input from those with larger intra-sector input, and assume that the former sectors tend to compete among regions while the latter tend to cooperate among regions. Then we apply this new method of inter-regional trade estimation to three sectors： food and tobacco, metal smelting and proc- essing, and electrical equipment. The results show that selection of bandwidth has a significant impact on the assessment of inter-regional trade. Trade flows are more scattered with the increase of bandwidths. As a result, bandwidth reflects the spatial concentration of geo- graphical activities, which should be distinguishable for different industries. We conclude that the sector-specific spatial model can increase the credibility of estimates of inter-regional trade flows.展开更多
基金Supported by the Laoshan Laboratory(No.LSKJ 202202404)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB 42000000)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.42030410)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST,and the Jiangsu Innovation Research Group(No.JSSCTD 202346)。
文摘Numerical models are crucial for quantifying the ocean-atmosphere interactions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)phenomenon in the tropical Pacific.Current coupled models often exhibit significant biases and inter-model differences in simulating ENSO,underscoring the need for alternative modeling approaches.The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS)is a sophisticated ocean model widely used for regional studies and has been coupled with various atmospheric models.However,its application in simulating ENSO processes on a basin scale in the tropical Pacific has not been explored.For the first time,this study presents the development of a basin-scale hybrid coupled model(HCM)for the tropical Pacific,integrating ROMS with a statistical atmospheric model that captures the interannual relationships between sea surface temperature(SST)and wind stress anomalies.The HCM is evaluated for its capability to simulate the annual mean,seasonal,and interannual variations of the oceanic state in the tropical Pacific.Results demonstrate that the model effectively reproduces the ENSO cycle,with a dominant oscillation period of approximately two years.The ROMS-based HCM developed here offers an efficient and robust tool for investigating climate variability in the tropical Pacific.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202307)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)+1 种基金the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.
基金Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL.
文摘In this study,copper extraction from low-grade oxide-sulfide ores was investigated using a leaching method combined with response surface methodology(RSM)to optimize operational conditions and assess leaching kinetics.Given copper's extensive industrial applications,sustainable recovery from low-grade ores is critical.Five key parameters-acid concentration,leaching time,particle size,temperature,and solids percentage-were identified as major influences on copper recovery.The results revealed that leaching time and solids percentage,along with interactions between temperature-time and temperature-solids percentage,had the most significant effects.Optimal conditions for 80% copper recovery while minimizing iron recovery below 3% included an acid concentration of 1.21 mol L^(-1),a leaching time of 108 min,a particle size of 438μm,a temperature of 45℃,and a solids percentage of 18.2%.Leaching kinetics were analyzed using shrinking core models,with the Dickinson model best describing the process,showing an activation energy of 32.63 kJ mol^(-1),indicative of mixed diffusion and chemical reaction control.The final kinetic model effectively predicted the influence of key parameters.These findings highlight the importance of optimizing process variables and selecting suitable kinetic models to enhance extraction efficiency,reduce costs,and improve sustainability in copper recovery.
基金funded through India Meteorological Department,New Delhi,India under the Forecasting Agricultural output using Space,Agrometeorol ogy and Land based observations(FASAL)project and fund number:No.ASC/FASAL/KT-11/01/HQ-2010.
文摘Background Cotton is one of the most important commercial crops after food crops,especially in countries like India,where it’s grown extensively under rainfed conditions.Because of its usage in multiple industries,such as textile,medicine,and automobile industries,it has greater commercial importance.The crop’s performance is greatly influenced by prevailing weather dynamics.As climate changes,assessing how weather changes affect crop performance is essential.Among various techniques that are available,crop models are the most effective and widely used tools for predicting yields.Results This study compares statistical and machine learning models to assess their ability to predict cotton yield across major producing districts of Karnataka,India,utilizing a long-term dataset spanning from 1990 to 2023 that includes yield and weather factors.The artificial neural networks(ANNs)performed superiorly with acceptable yield deviations ranging within±10%during both vegetative stage(F1)and mid stage(F2)for cotton.The model evaluation metrics such as root mean square error(RMSE),normalized root mean square error(nRMSE),and modelling efficiency(EF)were also within the acceptance limits in most districts.Furthermore,the tested ANN model was used to assess the importance of the dominant weather factors influencing crop yield in each district.Specifically,the use of morning relative humidity as an individual parameter and its interaction with maximum and minimum tempera-ture had a major influence on cotton yield in most of the yield predicted districts.These differences highlighted the differential interactions of weather factors in each district for cotton yield formation,highlighting individual response of each weather factor under different soils and management conditions over the major cotton growing districts of Karnataka.Conclusions Compared with statistical models,machine learning models such as ANNs proved higher efficiency in forecasting the cotton yield due to their ability to consider the interactive effects of weather factors on yield forma-tion at different growth stages.This highlights the best suitability of ANNs for yield forecasting in rainfed conditions and for the study on relative impacts of weather factors on yield.Thus,the study aims to provide valuable insights to support stakeholders in planning effective crop management strategies and formulating relevant policies.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2021YFC3100800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos.42407235 and 42271026)+1 种基金the Project of Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City (No.SCKJ-JYRC-2023-54)supported by the Hefei advanced computing center
文摘Coral reef limestone(CRL)constitutes a distinctive marine carbonate formation with complex mechanical properties.This study investigates the multiscale damage and fracture mechanisms of CRL through integrated experimental testing,digital core technology,and theoretical modelling.Two CRL types with contrasting mesostructures were characterized across three scales.Macroscopically,CRL-I and CRL-II exhibited mean compressive strengths of 8.46 and 5.17 MPa,respectively.Mesoscopically,CRL-I featured small-scale highly interconnected pores,whilst CRL-II developed larger stratified pores with diminished connectivity.Microscopically,both CRL matrices demonstrated remarkable similarity in mineral composition and mechanical properties.A novel voxel average-based digital core scaling methodology was developed to facilitate numerical simulation of cross-scale damage processes,revealing network-progressive failure in CRL-I versus directional-brittle failure in CRL-II.Furthermore,a damage statistical constitutive model based on digital core technology and mesoscopic homogenisation theory established quantitative relationships between microelement strength distribution and macroscopic mechanical behavior.These findings illuminate the fundamental mechanisms through which mesoscopic structure governs the macroscopic mechanical properties of CRL.
基金supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation of Ministry of Education(No.GLAB 2024ZR03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42407248)+2 种基金the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program(Natural Science)(No.QKHJC-[2023]-YB066)the Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB04-02)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.
基金Project(52274096)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(WS2023A03)supported by the State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base for Gas Geology and Gas Control,China。
文摘Accurate assessment of coal brittleness is crucial in the design of coal seam drilling and underground coal mining operations.This study proposes a method for evaluating the brittleness of gas-bearing coal based on a statistical damage constitutive model and energy evolution mechanisms.Initially,integrating the principle of effective stress and the Hoek-Brown criterion,a statistical damage constitutive model for gas-bearing coal is established and validated through triaxial compression tests under different gas pressures to verify its accuracy and applicability.Subsequently,employing energy evolution mechanism,two energy characteristic parameters(elastic energy proportion and dissipated energy proportion)are analyzed.Based on the damage stress thresholds,the damage evolution characteristics of gas bearing coal were explored.Finally,by integrating energy characteristic parameters with damage parameters,a novel brittleness index is proposed.The results demonstrate that the theoretical curves derived from the statistical damage constitutive model closely align with the test curves,accurately reflecting the stress−strain characteristics of gas-bearing coal and revealing the stress drop and softening characteristics of coal in the post-peak stage.The shape parameter and scale parameter represent the brittleness and macroscopic strength of the coal,respectively.As gas pressure increases from 1 to 5 MPa,the shape parameter and the scale parameter decrease by 22.18%and 60.45%,respectively,indicating a reduction in both brittleness and strength of the coal.Parameters such as maximum damage rate and peak elastic energy storage limit positively correlate with coal brittleness.The brittleness index effectively captures the brittleness characteristics and reveals a decrease in brittleness and an increase in sensitivity to plastic deformation under higher gas pressure conditions.
基金financially by the National Research Council of Thailand(NRCT)under Contract No.N42A670894.
文摘This study presents an innovative development of the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,explicitly adapted for the examination of time series data distinguished by seasonal autoregressive moving average behavior—SARMA(1,1)L under exponential white noise.Unlike previous works that rely on simplified models such as AR(1)or assume independence,this research derives for the first time an exact two-sided Average Run Length(ARL)formula for theModified EWMAchart under SARMA(1,1)L conditions,using a mathematically rigorous Fredholm integral approach.The derived formulas are validated against numerical integral equation(NIE)solutions,showing strong agreement and significantly reduced computational burden.Additionally,a performance comparison index(PCI)is introduced to assess the chart’s detection capability.Results demonstrate that the proposed method exhibits superior sensitivity to mean shifts in autocorrelated environments,outperforming existing approaches.The findings offer a new,efficient framework for real-time quality control in complex seasonal processes,with potential applications in environmental monitoring and intelligent manufacturing systems.
基金financed by the Key Technology R&D Plan of Yunnan Provincial Department of Science and Technology(Grant No.202303AA080003)the Shanghai Rising-Star Program(Grant No.23QB1404800).
文摘Rock is exposed to the combined effects of the confining pressure and strain rate during the dynamic excavation process in deeply buried high-stress tunnels.Therefore,a constitutive model that considers both the strain rate and the confining pressure effect plays a crucial role in evaluating the disturbance and stability of deeply buried tunnels.Taking mudstone as an example,a series of tests were performed to reveal the combined effect of the strain rate and confining pressure on the mechanical behavior of soft rock,and a novel statistical damage constitutive model was proposed.The confining pressures of 0 MPa,10 MPa,20 MPa,and 30 MPa and strain rates of 10^(-5)s^(-1),10^(-4)s^(-1),10^(-3)s^(-1),and 10^(-2)s^(-1)were investigated.The results show that the rock strength increases with increasing confining pressure and strain rate,and that the contributions of these two factors can be considered independent of each other.However,an increase in the confining pressure reduces the degree of rock damage and increases the ductility of the sample at failure,whereas the strain rate has the opposite effect.Finally,a full deformation process damage model considering strain rate effect is established based on a modified Hoek‒Brown strength criterion considering the strain rate.The model can capture the nonlinear increase in strength and elastic modulus with increasing confining pressure and strain rate,reproducing the brittle‒ductile transition characteristics and the full deformation process.
基金The Youth Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.12304507the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China under contract No.2024A1515011512+2 种基金the Stable Supporting Fund of Acoustic Science and Technology Laboratory under contract No.JCKYS2025SSJS010the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under contract No.20720240108the Special Project for Marine Economy Development of Guangdong Province,China under contract No.GDNRC2023-47.
文摘Shallow-water seabed reverberation presents a critical disturbance in acoustic propagation,affecting the target detection performance of monostatic sonar.This paper proposes a novel seabed reverberation model integrating Gaussian beam tracing with seabed scattering physics.The model synthesizes time-domain reverberation signals by superimposing scattering signals received across multiple propagation paths.It accurately resolves scattering signals along distinct paths and enables simulation of reverberation under diverse shallow-water environments by adjusting the marine parameters.Furthermore,we model the seabed reverberation signals in the time domain and the space domain for a cylindrical transceiver array,and provide a detailed statistical characterization of the simulated seabed reverberation signals.Finally,shallow-water seabed reverberation experiments were conducted with a cylindrical transceiver array.Comparisons between shallow-water seabed reverberation measurements and simulation estimates at various sites and transceiver depths demonstrate that the proposed seabed reverberation model can efficiently simulate shallow-water seabed reverberation.
文摘Statistical expression of vapour pressure equations of metals is derived from the Debye model.The statistical distribution of T_(-p) ensemble is presented in an in-elab- orate mode and the partition function is defined.The vapour pressure of eleven metals have been calculated with the Debye equation and compared with those given by the E- instein equation and empirical equation.Comparison of results of calculation from dif- ferent methods show their evident accordance within the same orders of magnitude.
基金provided by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42241145)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41941018).
文摘Understanding the temperature-dependent mechanical behavior and fracture characteristics of granite is crucial for many engineering projects.In this study,the real-time temperature curves of granite specimens were obtained during the heating and cooling process,and the thermal treatment tests were conducted.The physical properties of the specimen before and after thermal treatment,including mass,volume,and P-wave velocity,were measured.The acoustic emission(AE)signal in the uniaxial compression is monitored.The results indicate that the physical properties of granite deteriorate with temperature,while the mechanical properties show two effects of thermal strengthening and thermal weakening.This phenomenon is comprehensively analyzed by literature statistical data and optical microscopic observation.Furthermore,the AE characteristic is strongly dependent on temperature.High temperature induces more AE ring count to appear in the early stage of loading.As the temperature increases,the crack initiation stress decreases and the table crack propagation stage becomes longer.The attenuation of high-frequency signals and the enhancement of low-frequency signals are related to the development and interaction mechanism of thermally-induced crack and stress-induced crack.At 600℃,the global b-value increases significantly.Meanwhile,the evolution of dynamic b-value helps explain the failure process of granite under axial load after thermal treatment.In addition,a new thermo-mechanical damage statistical constitutive model of granite considering temperature effects is proposed by introducing AE parameters.The main advantages of this model can well fit the nonlinear behavior of granite in the early loading stage after thermal treatment,and reflect the failure process of granite before the peak value.
文摘An N-gram Chinese language model incorporating linguistic rules is presented. By constructing elements lattice, rules information is incorporated in statistical frame. To facilitate the hybrid modeling, novel methods such as MI-based rule evaluating, weighted rule quantification and element-based n-gram probability approximation are presented. Dynamic Viterbi algorithm is adopted to search the best path in lattice. To strengthen the model, transformation-based error-driven rules learning is adopted. Applying proposed model to Chinese Pinyin-to-character conversion, high performance has been achieved in accuracy, flexibility and robustness simultaneously. Tests show correct rate achieves 94.81% instead of 90.53% using bi-gram Markov model alone. Many long-distance dependency and recursion in language can be processed effectively.
文摘Feature selection(FS)is a pivotal pre-processing step in developing data-driven models,influencing reliability,performance and optimization.Although existing FS techniques can yield high-performance metrics for certain models,they do not invariably guarantee the extraction of the most critical or impactful features.Prior literature underscores the significance of equitable FS practices and has proposed diverse methodologies for the identification of appropriate features.However,the challenge of discerning the most relevant and influential features persists,particularly in the context of the exponential growth and heterogeneity of big data—a challenge that is increasingly salient in modern artificial intelligence(AI)applications.In response,this study introduces an innovative,automated statistical method termed Farea Similarity for Feature Selection(FSFS).The FSFS approach computes a similarity metric for each feature by benchmarking it against the record-wise mean,thereby finding feature dependencies and mitigating the influence of outliers that could potentially distort evaluation outcomes.Features are subsequently ranked according to their similarity scores,with the threshold established at the average similarity score.Notably,lower FSFS values indicate higher similarity and stronger data correlations,whereas higher values suggest lower similarity.The FSFS method is designed not only to yield reliable evaluation metrics but also to reduce data complexity without compromising model performance.Comparative analyses were performed against several established techniques,including Chi-squared(CS),Correlation Coefficient(CC),Genetic Algorithm(GA),Exhaustive Approach,Greedy Stepwise Approach,Gain Ratio,and Filtered Subset Eval,using a variety of datasets such as the Experimental Dataset,Breast Cancer Wisconsin(Original),KDD CUP 1999,NSL-KDD,UNSW-NB15,and Edge-IIoT.In the absence of the FSFS method,the highest classifier accuracies observed were 60.00%,95.13%,97.02%,98.17%,95.86%,and 94.62%for the respective datasets.When the FSFS technique was integrated with data normalization,encoding,balancing,and feature importance selection processes,accuracies improved to 100.00%,97.81%,98.63%,98.94%,94.27%,and 98.46%,respectively.The FSFS method,with a computational complexity of O(fn log n),demonstrates robust scalability and is well-suited for datasets of large size,ensuring efficient processing even when the number of features is substantial.By automatically eliminating outliers and redundant data,FSFS reduces computational overhead,resulting in faster training and improved model performance.Overall,the FSFS framework not only optimizes performance but also enhances the interpretability and explainability of data-driven models,thereby facilitating more trustworthy decision-making in AI applications.
基金supported by the National Key Scientific Instrument and Equipment Development Project(Grant No.2013YQ200607)China NSF Grants(Grant No.61631020)+1 种基金Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(Grant No.2017ZC52021)Open Foundation for Graduate Innovation of NUAA(Grant No.kfjj20170405 and kfjj20180408)
文摘The wireless communication systems based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAVs) have found a wide range of applications recently. In this paper, we propose a new three-dimensional(3 D) non-stationary multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel model for the communication links between the UAV and mobile terminal(MT). The new model originates the traditional geometry-based stochastic models(GBSMs) but considers the non-stationary propagation environment due to the rapid movements of the UAV, MT, and clusters. Meanwhile, the upgrade time evolving algorithms of time-variant channel parameters, i.e., the path number based on birth-death processes of clusters, path delays, path powers, and angles of arrival and departure, are developed and optimized. In addition, the statistical properties of proposed GBSM including autocorrelation function(ACF), cross-correlation function(CCF), and Doppler power spectrum density(DPSD) are investigated and analyzed. Simulation results demonstrate that our proposed model provides a good agreement on the statistical properties with the corresponding derived theoretical ones, which indicates its usefulness for the performance evaluation and validation of the UAV based communication systems.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB722201)National Natural Science Foundation of China (30970504, 31060320)National Science and Technology Support Program (2011BAC07B01)
文摘Land degradation causes serious environmental problems in many regions of the world, and although it can be effectively assessed and monitored using a time series of rainfall and a normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） from remotely-sensed imagery, dividing human-induced land degradation from vegetation dynamics due to climate change is not a trivial task. This paper presented a multilevel statistical modeling of the NDVI-rainfall relationship to detect human-induced land degradation at local and landscape scales in the Ordos Plateau of Inner Mongolia, China, and recognized that anthropogenic activities result in either positive （land restoration and re-vegetation） or negative （degradation） trends. Linear regressions were used to assess the accuracy of the multi- level statistical model. The results show that： （1） land restoration was the dominant process in the Ordos Plateau between 1998 and 2012; （2） the effect of the statistical removal of precipitation revealed areas of human-induced land degradation and improvement, the latter reflecting successful restoration projects and changes in land man- agement in many parts of the Ordos; （3） compared to a simple linear regression, multilevel statistical modeling could be used to analyze the relationship between the NDVI and rainfall and improve the accuracy of detecting the effect of human activities. Additional factors should be included when analyzing the NDVI-rainfall relationship and detecting human-induced loss of vegetation cover in drylands to improve the accuracy of the approach and elimi- nate some observed non-significant residual trends.
文摘A current statistical model for maneuvering acceleration using an adaptive extended Kalman filter（CS-MAEKF） algorithm is proposed to solve problems existing in conventional extended Kalman filters such as large estimation error and divergent tendencies in the presence of continuous maneuvering acceleration. A membership function is introduced in this algorithm to adaptively modify the upper and lower limits of loitering vehicles＇ maneuvering acceleration and for realtime adjustment of maneuvering acceleration variance. This allows the algorithm to have superior static and dynamic performance for loitering vehicles undergoing different maneuvers. Digital simulations and dynamic flight testing show that the yaw angle accuracy of the algorithm is 30% better than conventional algorithms, and pitch and roll angle calculation precision is improved by 60%.The mean square deviation of heading and attitude angle error during dynamic flight is less than3.05°. Experimental results show that CS-MAEKF meets the application requirements of miniature loitering vehicles.
基金This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science fund of China (No.50274058).
文摘Damage statistical mechanics model of horizontal section height in the top caving was constructed in the paper. The influence factors including supporting pressure, dip angle and characteristic of coal on horizontal section height were analyzed as well. By terms of the practice project analysis, the horizontal section height increases with the increase of dip angle β and thickness of coal seam M. Dip angle of coal seam β has tremendous impact on horizontal section height, while thickness of coal seam M has slight impact. When thickness of coal seam is below 10m, horizontal section height increases sharply. While thickness exceeds 15m, it is not major factor influencing on horizontal section height any long.
基金supported by Natural Science Foundation Research Project of Shanxi Science and Technology Department(2016JM1032)
文摘Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.
基金National Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of China, No.41125005
文摘China has huge differences among its regions in terms of socio-economic development, industrial structure, natural resource endowments, and technological advancement. These differences have created complicated linkages between regions in China. In this study, building upon gravity model and location quotient techniques, we develop a sector-specific model to estimate inter-provincial trade flows, which is the base for making a multi-regional input-output table. In the model, we distinguish sectors with less intra-sector input from those with larger intra-sector input, and assume that the former sectors tend to compete among regions while the latter tend to cooperate among regions. Then we apply this new method of inter-regional trade estimation to three sectors： food and tobacco, metal smelting and proc- essing, and electrical equipment. The results show that selection of bandwidth has a significant impact on the assessment of inter-regional trade. Trade flows are more scattered with the increase of bandwidths. As a result, bandwidth reflects the spatial concentration of geo- graphical activities, which should be distinguishable for different industries. We conclude that the sector-specific spatial model can increase the credibility of estimates of inter-regional trade flows.
