In this study,we used an extensive sampling network established in central Romania to develop tree height and crown length models.Our analysis included more than 18,000 tree measurements from five different species.In...In this study,we used an extensive sampling network established in central Romania to develop tree height and crown length models.Our analysis included more than 18,000 tree measurements from five different species.Instead of building univariate models for each response variable,we employed a multivariate approach using seemingly unrelated mixed-effects models.These models incorporated variables related to species mixture,tree and stand size,competition,and stand structure.With the inclusion of additional variables in the multivariate seemingly unrelated mixed-effects models,the accuracy of the height prediction models improved by over 10% for all species,whereas the improvement in the crown length models was considerably smaller.Our findings indicate that trees in mixed stands tend to have shorter heights but longer crowns than those in pure stands.We also observed that trees in homogeneous stand structures have shorter crown lengths than those in heterogeneous stands.By employing a multivariate mixed-effects modelling framework,we were able to perform cross-model random-effect predictions,leading to a significant increase in accuracy when both responses were used to calibrate the model.In contrast,the improvement in accuracy was marginal when only height was used for calibration.We demonstrate how multivariate mixed-effects models can be effectively used to develop multi-response allometric models that can be easily calibrated with a limited number of observations while simultaneously achieving better-aligned projections.展开更多
Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among ...Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.展开更多
Height–diameter relationships are essential elements of forest assessment and modeling efforts.In this work,two linear and eighteen nonlinear height–diameter equations were evaluated to find a local model for Orient...Height–diameter relationships are essential elements of forest assessment and modeling efforts.In this work,two linear and eighteen nonlinear height–diameter equations were evaluated to find a local model for Oriental beech（Fagus orientalis Lipsky） in the Hyrcanian Forest in Iran.The predictive performance of these models was first assessed by different evaluation criteria： adjusted R^2（R^2_（adj））,root mean square error（RMSE）,relative RMSE（%RMSE）,bias,and relative bias（%bias） criteria.The best model was selected for use as the base mixed-effects model.Random parameters for test plots were estimated with different tree selection options.Results show that the Chapman–Richards model had better predictive ability in terms of adj R^2（0.81）,RMSE（3.7 m）,%RMSE（12.9）,bias（0.8）,%Bias（2.79） than the other models.Furthermore,the calibration response,based on a selection of four trees from the sample plots,resulted in a reduction percentage for bias and RMSE of about 1.6–2.7%.Our results indicate that the calibrated model produced the most accurate results.展开更多
The increasing richness of data encourages a comprehensive understanding of economic and financial activities,where variables of interest may include not only scalar(point-like)indicators,but also functional(curve-lik...The increasing richness of data encourages a comprehensive understanding of economic and financial activities,where variables of interest may include not only scalar(point-like)indicators,but also functional(curve-like)and compositional(pie-like)ones.In many research topics,the variables are also chronologically collected across individuals,which falls into the paradigm of longitudinal analysis.The complicated nature of data,however,increases the difficulty of modeling these variables under the classic longitudinal frame-work.In this study,we investigate the linear mixed-effects model(LMM)for such complex data.Different types of variables arefirst consistently represented using the corresponding basis expansions so that the classic LMM can then be conducted on them,which gener-alizes the theoretical framework of LMM to complex data analysis.A number of simulation studies indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.We further illustrate its practical utility in a real data study on Chinese stock market and show that the proposed method can enhance the performance and interpretability of the regression for complex data with diversified characteristics.展开更多
The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with ...The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with measurement errors in the covariates. The empirical BLUP estimator of the linear combination of the fixed and random effects and its approximate conditional MSE are derived. The application to the estimation of small area is provided. Simulation study shows good performance of the proposed estimators.展开更多
Korean larch(Larix olgensis)is one of the main tree species for aff orestation and timber production in northeast China.However,its timber quality and growth ability are largely infl uenced by crown size,structure and...Korean larch(Larix olgensis)is one of the main tree species for aff orestation and timber production in northeast China.However,its timber quality and growth ability are largely infl uenced by crown size,structure and shape.The majority of crown models are static models based on tree size and stand characteristics from temporary sample plots,but crown dynamic models has seldom been constructed.Therefore,this study aimed to develop height to crown base(HCB)and crown length(CL)dynamic models using the branch mortality technique for a Korean larch plantation.The nonlinear mixed-eff ects model with random eff ects,variance functions and correlation structures,was used to build HCB and CL dynamic models.The data were obtained from 95 sample trees of 19 plots in Meng JiaGang forest farm in Northeast China.The results showed that HCB progressively increases as tree age,tree height growth(HT growth)and diameter at breast height growth(DBH growth).The CL was increased with tree age in 20 years ago,and subsequently stabilized.HT growth,DBH growth stand basal area(BAS)and crown competition factor(CCF)signifi cantly infl uenced HCB and CL.The HCB was positively correlated with BAS,HT growth and DBH growth,but negatively correlated with CCF.The CL was positively correlated with BAS and CCF,but negatively correlated with DBH growth.Model fi tting and validation confi rmed that the mixed-eff ects model considering the stand and tree level random eff ects was accurate and reliable for predicting the HCB and CL dynamics.However,the models involving adding variance functions and time series correlation structure could not completely remove heterogeneity and autocorrelation,and the fi tting precision of the models was reduced.Therefore,from the point of view of application,we should take care to avoid setting up over-complex models.The HCB and CL dynamic models in our study may also be incorporated into stand growth and yield model systems in China.展开更多
Linear mixed-effects models are a powerful tool for the analysis of longitudinal data. The aim of this paper is to study model averaging for linear mixed-effects models. The asymptotic distribution of the frequentist ...Linear mixed-effects models are a powerful tool for the analysis of longitudinal data. The aim of this paper is to study model averaging for linear mixed-effects models. The asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model average estimator is derived, and a confidence interval procedure with an actual coverage probability that tends to the nominal level in large samples is developed. The two confidence intervals based on the model averaging and based on the full model are shown to be asymptotically equivalent. A simulation study shows good finite sample performance of the model average estimators.展开更多
Nonlinear mixed-eirects (NLME) modek have become popular in various disciplines over the past several decades.However,the existing methods for parameter estimation imple-mented in standard statistical packages such as...Nonlinear mixed-eirects (NLME) modek have become popular in various disciplines over the past several decades.However,the existing methods for parameter estimation imple-mented in standard statistical packages such as SAS and R/S-Plus are generally limited k) single-or multi-level NLME models that only allow nested random effects and are unable to cope with crossed random effects within the framework of NLME modeling.In t his study,wc propose a general formulation of NLME models that can accommodate both nested and crassed random effects,and then develop a computational algorit hm for parameter estimation based on normal assumptions.The maximum likelihood estimation is carried out using the first-order conditional expansion (FOCE) for NLME model linearization and sequential quadratic programming (SCJP) for computational optimization while ensuring positive-definiteness of the estimated variance-covariance matrices of both random effects and error terms.The FOCE-SQP algorithm is evaluated using the height and diameter data measured on trees from Korean larch (L.olgeiisis var,Chang-paienA.b) experimental plots aa well as simulation studies.We show that the FOCE-SQP method converges fast with high accuracy.Applications of the general formulation of NLME models are illustrated with an analysis of the Korean larch data.展开更多
Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analysis of longitudinal data. However, testing for zero-variance components of random effects has not been well-resolved in statistical literature, although some likelih...Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analysis of longitudinal data. However, testing for zero-variance components of random effects has not been well-resolved in statistical literature, although some likelihood-based procedures have been proposed and studied. In this article, we propose a generalized p-value based method in coupling with fiducial inference to tackle this problem. The proposed method is also applied to test linearity of the nonparametric functions in additive models. We provide theoretical justifications and develop an implementation algorithm for the proposed method. We evaluate its finite-sample performance and compare it with that of the restricted likelihood ratio test via simulation experiments. We illustrate the proposed approach using an application from a nutritional study.展开更多
Rural domestic sewage treatment is critical for environmental protection.This study defines the spatial pattern of villages from the perspective of rural sewage treatment and develops an integrated decision-making sys...Rural domestic sewage treatment is critical for environmental protection.This study defines the spatial pattern of villages from the perspective of rural sewage treatment and develops an integrated decision-making system to propose a sewage treatment mode and scheme suitable for local conditions.By considering the village spatial layout and terrain factors,a decision tree model of residential density and terrain type was constructed with accuracies of 76.47%and 96.00%,respectively.Combined with binary classification probability unit regression,an appropriate sewage treatment mode for the village was determined with 87.00%accuracy.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),combined with the Technique for Order Preference(TOPSIS)by Similarity to an Ideal Solution model,formed the basis for optimal treatment process selection under different emission standards.Verification was conducted in 542 villages across three counties of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,focusing on the standard effluent effect(0.3773),low investment cost(0.3196),and high standard effluent effect(0.5115)to determine the best treatment process for the same emission standard under different needs.The annual environmental and carbon emission benefits of sewage treatment in these villages were estimated.This model matches village density,geographic feature,and social development level,and provides scientific support and a theoretical basis for rural sewage treatment decision-making.展开更多
Clustered survival data are widely observed in a variety of setting. Most survival models incorporate clustering and grouping of data accounting for between-cluster variability that creates correlation in order to pre...Clustered survival data are widely observed in a variety of setting. Most survival models incorporate clustering and grouping of data accounting for between-cluster variability that creates correlation in order to prevent underestimate of the standard errors of the parameter estimators but do not include random effects. In this study, we developed a mixed-effect parametric proportional hazard (MEPPH) model with a generalized log-logistic distribution baseline. The parameters of the model were estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood estimation technique with an iterative optimization procedure (quasi-Newton Raphson). The developed MEPPH model’s performance was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. The Leukemia dataset with right-censored data was used to demonstrate the model’s applicability. The results revealed that all covariates, except age in PH models, were significant in all considered distributions. Age and Townsend score were significant when the GLL distribution was used in MEPPH, while sex, age and Townsend score were significant in MEPPH model when other distributions were used. Based on information criteria values, the Generalized Log-Logistic Mixed-Effects Parametric Proportional Hazard model (GLL-MEPPH) outperformed other models.展开更多
We present a comprehensive description and benchmark evaluation of the global–regional chemical transport model called the Emission and Atmospheric Processes Integrated and Coupled Community(EPICC)model.The framework...We present a comprehensive description and benchmark evaluation of the global–regional chemical transport model called the Emission and Atmospheric Processes Integrated and Coupled Community(EPICC)model.The framework incorporates(1)grid configuration,(2)transport dynamics,(3)chemical mechanisms,(4)aerosol processes,(5)wet/dry deposition parameterizations,and(6)heterogeneous chemistry treatments associated with sulfate,nitrous acid(HONO)chemistry,and aerosol/cloud–photolysis interactions(APIs/CPIs).Openly shared with the atmospheric research community,the model facilitates integration of advanced physicochemical schemes to enhance simulation accuracy.Globally,the model demonstrates realistic representations of ozone(O_(3))and aerosol optical depth.The EPICC model generally demonstrates robust performance in simulating regional concentrations of O_(3) and PM_(2.5)(and its components)in China.It successfully captures vertical profiles of both global and regional O_(3).Notably,the model mitigates frequently reported sulfate underestimations in highly industrialized regions of China.The model accurately captures two regional severe pollution episodes observed in eastern China(January/June 2021).Sensitivity experiments highlight the critical roles of heterogeneous chemical mechanisms associated with sulfate,HONO chemistry,APIs,and CPIs in capturing PM_(2.5) and O_(3) concentrations in China.Improved sulfate mechanisms result in an increase of approximately 32.4%(2.8μg m^(−3))in simulated winter sulfate concentrations when observations exceed 10μg m^(−3).Enhanced HONO elevates winter O_(3) and PM_(2.5) by≤20 and≤10μg m^(−3),respectively.Overall,CPIs dominate over APIs in improving O_(3) and PM_(2.5) simulations across China.Locally,APIs mitigate PM_(2.5) and O_(3) discrepancies in the Sichuan Basin.Seasonal cloud–chemistry coupling explains the weaker impact of PM_(2.5) in summer.展开更多
Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLM...Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture.展开更多
In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asy...In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.展开更多
The proliferation of high-dimensional data and the widespread use of complex models present central challenges in contemporary statistics and data science.Dimension reduction and model checking,as two foundational pil...The proliferation of high-dimensional data and the widespread use of complex models present central challenges in contemporary statistics and data science.Dimension reduction and model checking,as two foundational pillars supporting scientific inference and data-driven decisionmaking,have evolved through the collective wisdom of generations of statisticians.This special issue,titled"Recent Developments in Dimension Reduction and Model Checking for regressions",not only aims to showcase cutting-edge advances in the field but also carries a distinct sense of academic homage to honor the groundbreaking and enduring contributions of Professor Lixing Zhu,a leading scholar whose work has profoundly shaped both areas.展开更多
In their recent paper Pereira et al.(2025)claim that validation is overlooked in mapping and modelling of ecosystem services(ES).They state that“many studies lack critical evaluation of the results and no validation ...In their recent paper Pereira et al.(2025)claim that validation is overlooked in mapping and modelling of ecosystem services(ES).They state that“many studies lack critical evaluation of the results and no validation is provided”and that“the validation step is largely overlooked”.This assertion may have been true several years ago,for example,when Ochoa and Urbina-Cardona(2017)made a similar observation.However,there has been much work on ES model validation over the last decade.展开更多
This paper presents an efficient model reduction technique for linear time-varying systems based on shifted Legendre polynomials.The approach constructs approximate low-rank decomposition factors of finite-time Gramia...This paper presents an efficient model reduction technique for linear time-varying systems based on shifted Legendre polynomials.The approach constructs approximate low-rank decomposition factors of finite-time Gramians directly from the expansion coefficients of impulse responses.Leveraging these factors,we develop two model reduction algorithms that integrate the low-rank square root method with dominant subspace projection.Our method is computationally efficient and flexible,requiring only a few matrix-vector operations and a singular value decomposition of a low-dimensional matrix,thereby avoiding the need to solve differential Lyapunov equations.Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.展开更多
In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and cha...In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.展开更多
The dissolution of MgO-refractory into the slag had an obvious influence on the steel-slag reaction and the slag property,especially for high-aluminum steels.The dissolution behavior of MgO-refractory was investigated...The dissolution of MgO-refractory into the slag had an obvious influence on the steel-slag reaction and the slag property,especially for high-aluminum steels.The dissolution behavior of MgO-refractory was investigated under various conditions,including the temperature,the initial steel composition,and the initial slag composition.A steel-slag-refractory kinetic model for high-aluminum steel was developed,which incorporated the process of MgO-refractory dissolution.The dependence of the MgO mass transfer coefficient k_(MgO)^(r)on temperature T during MgO-refractory dissolution process was established,as described by ln k_(MgO)^(r)=63,754/T+24.38524.It was indicated that the MgO dissolution rate was significantly influenced by the temperature.A higher temperature increased the dissolution rate of MgO.The initial steel composition had a slight impact on the MgO dissolution rate.Additionally,the initial slag composition strongly impacted the MgO saturation concentration and the dissolution rate.A lower initial Al_(2)O_(3)/SiO_(2)ratio increased the MgO dissolution rate.The steel-slag-refractory kinetic model accurately predicted the dissolution of MgO-refractory and the influence of dissolved MgO on the viscosity and composition change during steel-slag-refractory reactions.It was suggested that a higher temperature can hardly reduce the viscosity due to the dissolution of the MgO-refractory.展开更多
Background:Large language models(LLMs)have shown considerable promise in supporting clinical decision-making.However,their adoption and evaluation in dermatology remains limited.This study aimed to explore the prefere...Background:Large language models(LLMs)have shown considerable promise in supporting clinical decision-making.However,their adoption and evaluation in dermatology remains limited.This study aimed to explore the preferences of Chinese dermatologists regarding LLM-generated responses in clinical psoriasis scenarios and to assess how they prioritize key quality dimensions,including accuracy,traceability,and logicality.Methods:A cross-sectional,web-based survey was conducted between December 25,2024,and January 22,2025,following the Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E-Surveys guidelines.A total of 1247 valid responses were collected from practicing dermatologists across 33 of China's provincial-level administrative divisions.Participants evaluated responses to five categories of clinical questions(etiology,clinical presentation,differential diagnosis,treatment,and case study)generated by five LLMs:ChatGPT-4o,Kimi.ai,Doubao,ZuoYiGPT,and Lingyi-agent.Statistical associations between participant characteristics and model preferences were examined using chi-square tests.Results:ChatGPT-4o(Model 1)emerged as the most preferred model across all clinical tasks,consistently receiving the highest number of votes in case study(n=740),clinical presentation(n=666),differential diagnosis(n=707),etiology(n=602),and treatment(n=656).Significant variation in model preference by professional title was observed only for the differential diagnosis task(χ^(2)=21.13,df=12,p=0.0485),while no significant differences were found across hospital tiers(p>0.05).In terms of evaluation dimensions,accuracy was most frequently rated as“very important”(n=635).A significant association existed between hospital tier and the most valued dimension(χ^(2)=27.667,df=9,p=0.0011),with dermatologists in primary hospitals prioritizing traceability more than their peers in higher-tier hospitals.No significant associations were found across professional titles(p=0.127).Conclusions:Chinese dermatologists suggest a strong preference for ChatGPT-4o over domestic LLMs in psoriasis-related clinical tasks.While accuracy remains the primary criterion,traceability and logicality are also critical,particularly for clinicians in lower-tier hospitals.These findings suggest that future clinical LLMs should prioritize not only content accuracy but also source transparency and structural clarity to meet the diverse needs of different clinical settings.展开更多
基金supported by the European Union and the Romanian Government through the Competitiveness Operational Programme 2014–2020, under the project“Increasing the economic competitiveness of the forestry sector and the quality of life through knowledge transfer,technology and CDI skills”(CRESFORLIFE),ID P 40 380/105506, subsidiary contract no. 17/2020partially by the FORCLIMSOC Nucleu Programme (Contract 12N/2023)+2 种基金project PN 23090101CresPerfInst project (Contract 34PFE/December 30, 2021)“Increasing the institutional capacity and performance of INCDS ‘Marin Drǎcea’in RDI activities-CresPer”LM was financially supported by the Research Council of Finland's flagship ecosystem for Forest-Human-Machine Interplay–Building Resilience, Redefining Value Networks and Enabling Meaningful Experiences (UNITE)(decision number 357909)
文摘In this study,we used an extensive sampling network established in central Romania to develop tree height and crown length models.Our analysis included more than 18,000 tree measurements from five different species.Instead of building univariate models for each response variable,we employed a multivariate approach using seemingly unrelated mixed-effects models.These models incorporated variables related to species mixture,tree and stand size,competition,and stand structure.With the inclusion of additional variables in the multivariate seemingly unrelated mixed-effects models,the accuracy of the height prediction models improved by over 10% for all species,whereas the improvement in the crown length models was considerably smaller.Our findings indicate that trees in mixed stands tend to have shorter heights but longer crowns than those in pure stands.We also observed that trees in homogeneous stand structures have shorter crown lengths than those in heterogeneous stands.By employing a multivariate mixed-effects modelling framework,we were able to perform cross-model random-effect predictions,leading to a significant increase in accuracy when both responses were used to calibrate the model.In contrast,the improvement in accuracy was marginal when only height was used for calibration.We demonstrate how multivariate mixed-effects models can be effectively used to develop multi-response allometric models that can be easily calibrated with a limited number of observations while simultaneously achieving better-aligned projections.
文摘Mixed-effects models,also called random-effects models,are a regression type of analysis which enables the analyst to not only describe the trend over time within each subject,but also to describe the variation among different subjects.Nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a powerful and flexible tool for handling the unbalanced count data.In this paper,nonlinear mixed-effects models are used to analyze the failure data from a repairable system with multiple copies.By using this type of models,statistical inferences about the population and all copies can be made when accounting for copy-to-copy variance.Results of fitting nonlinear mixed-effects models to nine failure-data sets show that the nonlinear mixed-effects models provide a useful tool for analyzing the failure data from multi-copy repairable systems.
基金This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public,commercial,or not-for-profit sectors
文摘Height–diameter relationships are essential elements of forest assessment and modeling efforts.In this work,two linear and eighteen nonlinear height–diameter equations were evaluated to find a local model for Oriental beech（Fagus orientalis Lipsky） in the Hyrcanian Forest in Iran.The predictive performance of these models was first assessed by different evaluation criteria： adjusted R^2（R^2_（adj））,root mean square error（RMSE）,relative RMSE（%RMSE）,bias,and relative bias（%bias） criteria.The best model was selected for use as the base mixed-effects model.Random parameters for test plots were estimated with different tree selection options.Results show that the Chapman–Richards model had better predictive ability in terms of adj R^2（0.81）,RMSE（3.7 m）,%RMSE（12.9）,bias（0.8）,%Bias（2.79） than the other models.Furthermore,the calibration response,based on a selection of four trees from the sample plots,resulted in a reduction percentage for bias and RMSE of about 1.6–2.7%.Our results indicate that the calibrated model produced the most accurate results.
基金This research was financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71420107025,11701023).
文摘The increasing richness of data encourages a comprehensive understanding of economic and financial activities,where variables of interest may include not only scalar(point-like)indicators,but also functional(curve-like)and compositional(pie-like)ones.In many research topics,the variables are also chronologically collected across individuals,which falls into the paradigm of longitudinal analysis.The complicated nature of data,however,increases the difficulty of modeling these variables under the classic longitudinal frame-work.In this study,we investigate the linear mixed-effects model(LMM)for such complex data.Different types of variables arefirst consistently represented using the corresponding basis expansions so that the classic LMM can then be conducted on them,which gener-alizes the theoretical framework of LMM to complex data analysis.A number of simulation studies indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed model.We further illustrate its practical utility in a real data study on Chinese stock market and show that the proposed method can enhance the performance and interpretability of the regression for complex data with diversified characteristics.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11301514)partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11271355 and 70625004)National Bureau of Statistics of China(Grant No.2012LZ012)
文摘The linear mixed-effects model （LMM） is a very useful tool for analyzing cluster data. In practice, however, the exact values of the variables are often difficult to observe. In this paper, we consider the LMM with measurement errors in the covariates. The empirical BLUP estimator of the linear combination of the fixed and random effects and its approximate conditional MSE are derived. The application to the estimation of small area is provided. Simulation study shows good performance of the proposed estimators.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFD0600401)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2572019CP08)
文摘Korean larch(Larix olgensis)is one of the main tree species for aff orestation and timber production in northeast China.However,its timber quality and growth ability are largely infl uenced by crown size,structure and shape.The majority of crown models are static models based on tree size and stand characteristics from temporary sample plots,but crown dynamic models has seldom been constructed.Therefore,this study aimed to develop height to crown base(HCB)and crown length(CL)dynamic models using the branch mortality technique for a Korean larch plantation.The nonlinear mixed-eff ects model with random eff ects,variance functions and correlation structures,was used to build HCB and CL dynamic models.The data were obtained from 95 sample trees of 19 plots in Meng JiaGang forest farm in Northeast China.The results showed that HCB progressively increases as tree age,tree height growth(HT growth)and diameter at breast height growth(DBH growth).The CL was increased with tree age in 20 years ago,and subsequently stabilized.HT growth,DBH growth stand basal area(BAS)and crown competition factor(CCF)signifi cantly infl uenced HCB and CL.The HCB was positively correlated with BAS,HT growth and DBH growth,but negatively correlated with CCF.The CL was positively correlated with BAS and CCF,but negatively correlated with DBH growth.Model fi tting and validation confi rmed that the mixed-eff ects model considering the stand and tree level random eff ects was accurate and reliable for predicting the HCB and CL dynamics.However,the models involving adding variance functions and time series correlation structure could not completely remove heterogeneity and autocorrelation,and the fi tting precision of the models was reduced.Therefore,from the point of view of application,we should take care to avoid setting up over-complex models.The HCB and CL dynamic models in our study may also be incorporated into stand growth and yield model systems in China.
文摘Linear mixed-effects models are a powerful tool for the analysis of longitudinal data. The aim of this paper is to study model averaging for linear mixed-effects models. The asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model average estimator is derived, and a confidence interval procedure with an actual coverage probability that tends to the nominal level in large samples is developed. The two confidence intervals based on the model averaging and based on the full model are shown to be asymptotically equivalent. A simulation study shows good finite sample performance of the model average estimators.
基金The authors would like to thank the Thirteenth Five-year Plan Pioneering project of High Technology Plan of the National Department of Technology (No. 2017YFC0504101)the National Natural Science Foundations of China (Nos. 31470641, 31300534 and 31570628) for the financial support of this study.
文摘Nonlinear mixed-eirects (NLME) modek have become popular in various disciplines over the past several decades.However,the existing methods for parameter estimation imple-mented in standard statistical packages such as SAS and R/S-Plus are generally limited k) single-or multi-level NLME models that only allow nested random effects and are unable to cope with crossed random effects within the framework of NLME modeling.In t his study,wc propose a general formulation of NLME models that can accommodate both nested and crassed random effects,and then develop a computational algorit hm for parameter estimation based on normal assumptions.The maximum likelihood estimation is carried out using the first-order conditional expansion (FOCE) for NLME model linearization and sequential quadratic programming (SCJP) for computational optimization while ensuring positive-definiteness of the estimated variance-covariance matrices of both random effects and error terms.The FOCE-SQP algorithm is evaluated using the height and diameter data measured on trees from Korean larch (L.olgeiisis var,Chang-paienA.b) experimental plots aa well as simulation studies.We show that the FOCE-SQP method converges fast with high accuracy.Applications of the general formulation of NLME models are illustrated with an analysis of the Korean larch data.
基金supported by Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.ZR2014AM019)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11171188 and 11529101)the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Education Ministry of China,and National Science Foundation of USA(Grant Nos.DMS-1418042 and DMS-1620898)
文摘Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analysis of longitudinal data. However, testing for zero-variance components of random effects has not been well-resolved in statistical literature, although some likelihood-based procedures have been proposed and studied. In this article, we propose a generalized p-value based method in coupling with fiducial inference to tackle this problem. The proposed method is also applied to test linearity of the nonparametric functions in additive models. We provide theoretical justifications and develop an implementation algorithm for the proposed method. We evaluate its finite-sample performance and compare it with that of the restricted likelihood ratio test via simulation experiments. We illustrate the proposed approach using an application from a nutritional study.
基金supported by the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development Fund Project(No.2024SZY0343)the Joint Research Program for Ecological Conservation and High Quality Development of the Yellow River Basin(No.2022-YRUC-01-050205)+2 种基金the Higher Education Scientific Research Project of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(No.NJZZ23078)the project of Inner Mongolia"Prairie Talents"Engineering Innovation Entrepreneurship Talent Team,the Major Projects of Erdos Science and Technology(No.2022EEDSKJZDZX015)the Innovation Team of the Inner Mongolia Academy of Science and Technology(No.CXTD2023-01-016).
文摘Rural domestic sewage treatment is critical for environmental protection.This study defines the spatial pattern of villages from the perspective of rural sewage treatment and develops an integrated decision-making system to propose a sewage treatment mode and scheme suitable for local conditions.By considering the village spatial layout and terrain factors,a decision tree model of residential density and terrain type was constructed with accuracies of 76.47%and 96.00%,respectively.Combined with binary classification probability unit regression,an appropriate sewage treatment mode for the village was determined with 87.00%accuracy.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),combined with the Technique for Order Preference(TOPSIS)by Similarity to an Ideal Solution model,formed the basis for optimal treatment process selection under different emission standards.Verification was conducted in 542 villages across three counties of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,focusing on the standard effluent effect(0.3773),low investment cost(0.3196),and high standard effluent effect(0.5115)to determine the best treatment process for the same emission standard under different needs.The annual environmental and carbon emission benefits of sewage treatment in these villages were estimated.This model matches village density,geographic feature,and social development level,and provides scientific support and a theoretical basis for rural sewage treatment decision-making.
文摘Clustered survival data are widely observed in a variety of setting. Most survival models incorporate clustering and grouping of data accounting for between-cluster variability that creates correlation in order to prevent underestimate of the standard errors of the parameter estimators but do not include random effects. In this study, we developed a mixed-effect parametric proportional hazard (MEPPH) model with a generalized log-logistic distribution baseline. The parameters of the model were estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood estimation technique with an iterative optimization procedure (quasi-Newton Raphson). The developed MEPPH model’s performance was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. The Leukemia dataset with right-censored data was used to demonstrate the model’s applicability. The results revealed that all covariates, except age in PH models, were significant in all considered distributions. Age and Townsend score were significant when the GLL distribution was used in MEPPH, while sex, age and Townsend score were significant in MEPPH model when other distributions were used. Based on information criteria values, the Generalized Log-Logistic Mixed-Effects Parametric Proportional Hazard model (GLL-MEPPH) outperformed other models.
基金National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project “Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility” (EarthLab)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 92044302)the National Key Research Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFC3700703)
文摘We present a comprehensive description and benchmark evaluation of the global–regional chemical transport model called the Emission and Atmospheric Processes Integrated and Coupled Community(EPICC)model.The framework incorporates(1)grid configuration,(2)transport dynamics,(3)chemical mechanisms,(4)aerosol processes,(5)wet/dry deposition parameterizations,and(6)heterogeneous chemistry treatments associated with sulfate,nitrous acid(HONO)chemistry,and aerosol/cloud–photolysis interactions(APIs/CPIs).Openly shared with the atmospheric research community,the model facilitates integration of advanced physicochemical schemes to enhance simulation accuracy.Globally,the model demonstrates realistic representations of ozone(O_(3))and aerosol optical depth.The EPICC model generally demonstrates robust performance in simulating regional concentrations of O_(3) and PM_(2.5)(and its components)in China.It successfully captures vertical profiles of both global and regional O_(3).Notably,the model mitigates frequently reported sulfate underestimations in highly industrialized regions of China.The model accurately captures two regional severe pollution episodes observed in eastern China(January/June 2021).Sensitivity experiments highlight the critical roles of heterogeneous chemical mechanisms associated with sulfate,HONO chemistry,APIs,and CPIs in capturing PM_(2.5) and O_(3) concentrations in China.Improved sulfate mechanisms result in an increase of approximately 32.4%(2.8μg m^(−3))in simulated winter sulfate concentrations when observations exceed 10μg m^(−3).Enhanced HONO elevates winter O_(3) and PM_(2.5) by≤20 and≤10μg m^(−3),respectively.Overall,CPIs dominate over APIs in improving O_(3) and PM_(2.5) simulations across China.Locally,APIs mitigate PM_(2.5) and O_(3) discrepancies in the Sichuan Basin.Seasonal cloud–chemistry coupling explains the weaker impact of PM_(2.5) in summer.
文摘Model evaluation using benchmark datasets is an important method to measure the capability of large language models(LLMs)in specific domains,and it is mainly used to assess the knowledge and reasoning abilities of LLMs.Therefore,in order to better assess the capability of LLMs in the agricultural domain,Agri-Eval was proposed as a benchmark for assessing the knowledge and reasoning ability of LLMs in agriculture.The assessment dataset used in Agri-Eval covered seven major disciplines in the agricultural domain:crop science,horticulture,plant protection,animal husbandry,forest science,aquaculture science,and grass science,and contained a total of 2283 questions.Among domestic general-purpose LLMs,DeepSeek R1 performed best with an accuracy rate of 75.49%.In the realm of international general-purpose LLMs,Gemini 2.0 pro exp 0205 standed out as the top performer,achieving an accuracy rate of 74.28%.As an LLMs in agriculture vertical,Shennong V2.0 outperformed all the LLMs in China,and the answer accuracy rate of agricultural knowledge exceeded that of all the existing general-purpose LLMs.The launch of Agri-Eval helped the LLM developers to comprehensively evaluate the model's capability in the field of agriculture through a variety of tasks and tests to promote the development of the LLMs in the field of agriculture.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12261018)Universities Key Laboratory of Mathematical Modeling and Data Mining in Guizhou Province(2023013)。
文摘In this paper,we establish and study a single-species logistic model with impulsive age-selective harvesting.First,we prove the ultimate boundedness of the solutions of the system.Then,we obtain conditions for the asymptotic stability of the trivial solution and the positive periodic solution.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to validate our results.Our results show that age-selective harvesting is more conducive to sustainable population survival than non-age-selective harvesting.
文摘The proliferation of high-dimensional data and the widespread use of complex models present central challenges in contemporary statistics and data science.Dimension reduction and model checking,as two foundational pillars supporting scientific inference and data-driven decisionmaking,have evolved through the collective wisdom of generations of statisticians.This special issue,titled"Recent Developments in Dimension Reduction and Model Checking for regressions",not only aims to showcase cutting-edge advances in the field but also carries a distinct sense of academic homage to honor the groundbreaking and enduring contributions of Professor Lixing Zhu,a leading scholar whose work has profoundly shaped both areas.
文摘In their recent paper Pereira et al.(2025)claim that validation is overlooked in mapping and modelling of ecosystem services(ES).They state that“many studies lack critical evaluation of the results and no validation is provided”and that“the validation step is largely overlooked”.This assertion may have been true several years ago,for example,when Ochoa and Urbina-Cardona(2017)made a similar observation.However,there has been much work on ES model validation over the last decade.
文摘This paper presents an efficient model reduction technique for linear time-varying systems based on shifted Legendre polynomials.The approach constructs approximate low-rank decomposition factors of finite-time Gramians directly from the expansion coefficients of impulse responses.Leveraging these factors,we develop two model reduction algorithms that integrate the low-rank square root method with dominant subspace projection.Our method is computationally efficient and flexible,requiring only a few matrix-vector operations and a singular value decomposition of a low-dimensional matrix,thereby avoiding the need to solve differential Lyapunov equations.Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
基金the World Climate Research Programme(WCRP),Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR),and Global Energy and Water Exchanges(GEWEX)for facilitating the coordination of African monsoon researchsupport from the Center for Earth System Modeling,Analysis,and Data at the Pennsylvania State Universitythe support of the Office of Science of the U.S.Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Regional&Global Model Analysis(RGMA)program area。
文摘In recent years,there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society.This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change.Likewise,this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa.By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs,numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes.These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies.This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation overAfrica in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.
基金support from the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2023YFB3709901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U22A20171)+1 种基金China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(Grant No.BWLCF202315)the High Steel Center(HSC)at North China University of Technology and University of Science and Technology Beijing,China.
文摘The dissolution of MgO-refractory into the slag had an obvious influence on the steel-slag reaction and the slag property,especially for high-aluminum steels.The dissolution behavior of MgO-refractory was investigated under various conditions,including the temperature,the initial steel composition,and the initial slag composition.A steel-slag-refractory kinetic model for high-aluminum steel was developed,which incorporated the process of MgO-refractory dissolution.The dependence of the MgO mass transfer coefficient k_(MgO)^(r)on temperature T during MgO-refractory dissolution process was established,as described by ln k_(MgO)^(r)=63,754/T+24.38524.It was indicated that the MgO dissolution rate was significantly influenced by the temperature.A higher temperature increased the dissolution rate of MgO.The initial steel composition had a slight impact on the MgO dissolution rate.Additionally,the initial slag composition strongly impacted the MgO saturation concentration and the dissolution rate.A lower initial Al_(2)O_(3)/SiO_(2)ratio increased the MgO dissolution rate.The steel-slag-refractory kinetic model accurately predicted the dissolution of MgO-refractory and the influence of dissolved MgO on the viscosity and composition change during steel-slag-refractory reactions.It was suggested that a higher temperature can hardly reduce the viscosity due to the dissolution of the MgO-refractory.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,Grant/Award Number:2024YFF0507404Special Clinical Business Fund for High-Level Hospitals of China-Japan Friendship Hospital,Grant/Award Number:2024-NHLHCRF-TS-01。
文摘Background:Large language models(LLMs)have shown considerable promise in supporting clinical decision-making.However,their adoption and evaluation in dermatology remains limited.This study aimed to explore the preferences of Chinese dermatologists regarding LLM-generated responses in clinical psoriasis scenarios and to assess how they prioritize key quality dimensions,including accuracy,traceability,and logicality.Methods:A cross-sectional,web-based survey was conducted between December 25,2024,and January 22,2025,following the Checklist for Reporting Results of Internet E-Surveys guidelines.A total of 1247 valid responses were collected from practicing dermatologists across 33 of China's provincial-level administrative divisions.Participants evaluated responses to five categories of clinical questions(etiology,clinical presentation,differential diagnosis,treatment,and case study)generated by five LLMs:ChatGPT-4o,Kimi.ai,Doubao,ZuoYiGPT,and Lingyi-agent.Statistical associations between participant characteristics and model preferences were examined using chi-square tests.Results:ChatGPT-4o(Model 1)emerged as the most preferred model across all clinical tasks,consistently receiving the highest number of votes in case study(n=740),clinical presentation(n=666),differential diagnosis(n=707),etiology(n=602),and treatment(n=656).Significant variation in model preference by professional title was observed only for the differential diagnosis task(χ^(2)=21.13,df=12,p=0.0485),while no significant differences were found across hospital tiers(p>0.05).In terms of evaluation dimensions,accuracy was most frequently rated as“very important”(n=635).A significant association existed between hospital tier and the most valued dimension(χ^(2)=27.667,df=9,p=0.0011),with dermatologists in primary hospitals prioritizing traceability more than their peers in higher-tier hospitals.No significant associations were found across professional titles(p=0.127).Conclusions:Chinese dermatologists suggest a strong preference for ChatGPT-4o over domestic LLMs in psoriasis-related clinical tasks.While accuracy remains the primary criterion,traceability and logicality are also critical,particularly for clinicians in lower-tier hospitals.These findings suggest that future clinical LLMs should prioritize not only content accuracy but also source transparency and structural clarity to meet the diverse needs of different clinical settings.
