The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an ...The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation passthrough accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions？ We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy, which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.展开更多
This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, whe...This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.展开更多
The decline in global birth rates has become a major concern for policymakers and researchers,with fertility rates in many countries remaining significantly below replacement levels.This study explores the relationshi...The decline in global birth rates has become a major concern for policymakers and researchers,with fertility rates in many countries remaining significantly below replacement levels.This study explores the relationship between inflation targeting(IT)and fertility rates in emerging countries.IT aims to ensure price stability by managing inflation rates and shaping public expectations,potentially creating a stable economic environment conducive to higher fertility rates.Using fixed-effect regression models with difference-in-differences(DID)methods,we find that countries adopting IT experience a smaller reduction in fertility rates compared to non-adopters.These findings suggest that IT not only achieves its primary goal of price stability but also supports higher fertility rates by mitigating economic uncertainties.This study is among the first to examine the effect of IT on fertility rates,providing empirical evidence that IT can be a strategic tool for addressing demographic challenges.The results offer valuable insights for policymakers in emerging economies,demonstrating that effective monetary policy frameworks like IT can have broader socio-economic benefits beyond price stability.展开更多
文摘The performance of inflation in China over the past few decades has been remarkable. This paper characterizes the statistical nature of the inflation series in China over the past quarter of a century and presents an interesting scenario of large decline in inflation passthrough accompanied with low inflation since the end of the 1990s. How should monetary policy in China be conducted under these new economic conditions？ We propose a discrete inflation-targeting framework for monetary policy, which is likely to be suitable for the regime of low inflation and inflation pass-through. The advantages and caveats of adopting such a framework are also discussed.
文摘This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.
文摘The decline in global birth rates has become a major concern for policymakers and researchers,with fertility rates in many countries remaining significantly below replacement levels.This study explores the relationship between inflation targeting(IT)and fertility rates in emerging countries.IT aims to ensure price stability by managing inflation rates and shaping public expectations,potentially creating a stable economic environment conducive to higher fertility rates.Using fixed-effect regression models with difference-in-differences(DID)methods,we find that countries adopting IT experience a smaller reduction in fertility rates compared to non-adopters.These findings suggest that IT not only achieves its primary goal of price stability but also supports higher fertility rates by mitigating economic uncertainties.This study is among the first to examine the effect of IT on fertility rates,providing empirical evidence that IT can be a strategic tool for addressing demographic challenges.The results offer valuable insights for policymakers in emerging economies,demonstrating that effective monetary policy frameworks like IT can have broader socio-economic benefits beyond price stability.
