The effect of seismic directionality is crucial for curved bridges,a subject generally overlooked in seismic vulnerability analysis.This paper focuses on seismic fragility development as a function of seismic incidenc...The effect of seismic directionality is crucial for curved bridges,a subject generally overlooked in seismic vulnerability analysis.This paper focuses on seismic fragility development as a function of seismic incidence directions for a geometrically curved bridge.A series of non-linear time history analyses were carried out for a representative finite element model of the bridge by considering actual ground motions.For reliable seismic demand models,a total of eleven intensity measures(IM)were analyzed based on optimality metrics.To quantify the sensitivity of fragility functions to input incidence directions,fragility surfaces were developed throughout the horizontal plane by considering spectral acceleration at one second(Sa_(1.0))as the optimal IM.Results show that the optimal IM ranking is insignificantly influenced by seismic directionality.However,seismic orientation influences fragility,which intensifies in higher damage states,particularly for piers.For a bridge system,the differences in median demand corresponding to the least and most vulnerable direction for slight,moderate,extensive,and collapse states are about 9.0%,7.31%,10.32%,and 11.60%,respectively.These results imply that while evaluating the vulnerability of curved bridges,the optimality of IM in demand estimation and the impact of seismic directionality should not be disregarded.展开更多
Seismic fragility analysis(SFA)is known as an effective probabilistic-based approach used to evaluate seismic fragility.There are various sources of uncertainties associated with this approach.A nuclear power plant(NP...Seismic fragility analysis(SFA)is known as an effective probabilistic-based approach used to evaluate seismic fragility.There are various sources of uncertainties associated with this approach.A nuclear power plant(NPP)system is an extremely important infrastructure and contains many structural uncertainties due to construction issues or structural deterioration during service.Simulation of structural uncertainties effects is a costly and time-consuming endeavor.A novel approach to SFA for the NPP considering structural uncertainties based on the damage state is proposed and examined.The results suggest that considering the structural uncertainties is essential in assessing the fragility of the NPP structure,and the impact of structural uncertainties tends to increase with the state of damage.Subsequently,machine learning(ML)is found to be superior in high-precision damage state identification of the NPP for reducing the time of nonlinear time-history analysis(NLTHA)and could be applied in the damage state-based SFA.Also,the impact of various sources of uncertainties is investigated through sensitivity analysis.The Sobol and Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)method can be complementary to each other and able to solve the problem of quantifying seismic and structural uncertainties simultaneously and the interaction effect of each parameter.展开更多
BACKGROUND Retrograde pubic ramus screw placement is an effective technique but requires substantial surgical expertise and specialized equipment.The management of osteoporotic anterior pelvic ring injuries remains ch...BACKGROUND Retrograde pubic ramus screw placement is an effective technique but requires substantial surgical expertise and specialized equipment.The management of osteoporotic anterior pelvic ring injuries remains challenging due to technical difficulties and a high risk of complications.AIM To introduce a novel and simplified surgical approach that utilizes a custom-designed handheld pelvic alignment guide(HPAG)in combination with a 6.0 mm hollow screw,aiming to enhance the accuracy,efficiency,and safety of retrograde pubic ramus screw fixation in osteoporotic pelvic fragility fractures.METHODS The HPAG and 6.0 mm hollow screw were employed during surgical treatment.A 2.0-3.0 cm incision was made to expose the optimal screw entry point.Intraop-erative pelvic inlet and obturator oblique views were used to monitor fracture reduction and guide screw insertion.Clinical outcomes and fracture reduction quality were evaluated using Matta,visual analog scale,and Majeed scores during follow-ups.A representative case is presented to demonstrate the surgical procedure in detail.RESULTS No perioperative complications were observed.The mean operative time was 35.2±6.97 minutes,with a screw insertion time of 7.25±1.86 minutes,an average incision length of 2.8±0.67 cm,and mean blood loss of 43.25±15.64 mL.At one-year follow-up,seven patients achieved excellent Majeed scores and three achieved good scores.CONCLUSION No perioperative complications were observed.The mean operative time was 35.2±6.97 minutes,with a screw insertion time of 7.25±1.86 minutes,an average incision length of 2.8±0.67 cm,and mean blood loss of 43.25±15.64 mL.At one-year follow-up,seven patients achieved excellent Majeed scores and three achieved good scores.展开更多
Damage to electrical equipment in an earthquake can lead to power outage of power systems.Seismic fragility analysis is a common method to assess the seismic reliability of electrical equipment.To further guarantee th...Damage to electrical equipment in an earthquake can lead to power outage of power systems.Seismic fragility analysis is a common method to assess the seismic reliability of electrical equipment.To further guarantee the efficiency of analysis,multi-source uncertainties including the structure itself and seismic excitation need to be considered.A method for seismic fragility analysis that reflects structural and seismic parameter uncertainty was developed in this study.The proposed method used a random sampling method based on Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)to account for the structure parameter uncertainty and the group structure characteristics of electrical equipment.Then,logistic Lasso regression(LLR)was used to find the seismic fragility surface based on double ground motion intensity measures(IM).The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an±1000 kV main transformer(UHVMT)was analyzed using the proposed method.The results show that the seismic fragility function obtained by this method can be used to construct the relationship between the uncertainty parameters and the failure probability.The seismic fragility surface did not only provide the probabilities of seismic damage states under different IMs,but also had better stability than the fragility curve.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis of the structural parameters revealed that the elastic module of the bushing and the height of the high-voltage bushing may have a greater influence.展开更多
To improve the seismic performance of unrein-forced masonry(URM)buildings in the Himalayan re-gions,including Western China,India,Nepal,and Paki-stan,a low-cost bonded scrap tire rubber isolator(BSTRI)is proposed,and ...To improve the seismic performance of unrein-forced masonry(URM)buildings in the Himalayan re-gions,including Western China,India,Nepal,and Paki-stan,a low-cost bonded scrap tire rubber isolator(BSTRI)is proposed,and a series of vertical compression and horizontal shear tests are conducted.Incremental dynamic analyses are conducted for five types of BSTRI-supported URM buildings subjected to 22 far-field and 28 near-field earthquake ground motions.The resulting fragility curves and probability of damage curves are presented and utilized to evaluate the damage states of these buildings.The results show that in the base-isolated(BI)URM buildings under seismic ground motion at a peak ground acceleration(PGA)of 1.102g,the probability of exceeding the collapse prevention threshold is less than 25%under far-field earthquake ground motions and 31%under near-field earthquake ground motions.Furthermore,the maximum average vulnerability index for the BI-URM buildings,which are designed to withstand rare earthquakes with 9°(PGA=0.632g),is 40.87%for far-field earthquake ground motions and 41.83%for near-field earthquake ground motions.Therefore,the adoption of BSTRIs can significantly reduce the collapse probability of URM buildings.展开更多
Seismic fragility analysis of three-tower cable-stayed bridges with three different structural systems,including rigid system(RS),floating system(FS),and passive energy dissipation system(PEDS),is conducted to study t...Seismic fragility analysis of three-tower cable-stayed bridges with three different structural systems,including rigid system(RS),floating system(FS),and passive energy dissipation system(PEDS),is conducted to study the effects of connection configurations on seismic responses and fragilities.Finite element models of bridges are established using OpenSees.A new ground motion screening method based on the statistical characteristic of the predominant period is proposed to avoid irregular behavior in the selection process of ground motions,and incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)is performed to develop components and systems fragility curves.The effects of damper failure on calculated results for PEDS are examined in terms of seismic response and fragility analysis.The results show that the bridge tower is the most affected component by different structural systems.For RS,the fragility of the middle tower is significantly higher than other components,and the bridge failure starts from the middle tower,exhibiting a characteristic of local failure.For FS and PEDS,the fragility of the edge tower is higher than the middle tower.The system fragility of RS is higher than FS and PEDS.Taking the failure of dampers into account is necessary to obtain reliable seismic capacity of cable-stayed bridges.展开更多
Background: Reduced bone density is a major risk factor for fragility fracture. Previous studies reported, that 69% to 100% of patients with fragility fractures had low bone mineral density (BMD). Objective: The objec...Background: Reduced bone density is a major risk factor for fragility fracture. Previous studies reported, that 69% to 100% of patients with fragility fractures had low bone mineral density (BMD). Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate the prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia among patients with fragility fractures. Results: The result of the study revealed that the mean age of patients included in the study was 65.11 ± 10.17 and the majority (77.3%) were females. The most common sites of fractures were the femur, radius and vertebra (30.7%, 17.0% and 14.8% respectively). Moreover, more than 95% of patients with fragility fracture who underwent BMD testing had low bone mineral density. In female with fragility fracture the prevalence of osteoporosis was higher in comparison to male (58.8% and 45.0% respectively). Conclusion: Our data showed that low BMD measurement is prevalent in patient with fragility fracture. It also highlighted the importance of implementation of Fracture liaison service, to reduce the gap between fragility fracture and osteoporosis treatment.展开更多
This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility sur-faces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis.The methodology facilitates comprehen...This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility sur-faces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis.The methodology facilitates comprehen-sive evaluations of spatial damage,economic loss,and risk under multi-hazard conditions.This study compares earthquake-only analysis results to the successive earthquake-tsunami analysis at the community level to reveal-and quantify-significant disparities in damage and loss estimations between the analyses,emphasizing the need to consider both hazards in community planning even at lower seismic intensities.Critical assessment of the FEMA combinational rule demonstrates its limitations in accurately predicting losses and damage patterns at higher hazard intensities,highlighting the necessity for refined models that accurately account for hazard inter-actions.This research advances multi-hazard community-level resilience analysis by offering a robust framework for earthquake and tsunami assessment,underscoring the need for integration of detailed multi-hazard analy-ses into resilience planning.Finally,it suggests future directions for enhancing framework applicability across diverse community settings and structural types,aiming to improve community resilience.展开更多
Zr-Al-Ni-Cu bulk metallic glasses （BMGs） were developed and their fragility parameters （m） were calculated by Arrhenius and Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann （VFT） equations. The results show that the m values of the Zr-Al-...Zr-Al-Ni-Cu bulk metallic glasses （BMGs） were developed and their fragility parameters （m） were calculated by Arrhenius and Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann （VFT） equations. The results show that the m values of the Zr-Al-Ni-Cu BMGs derived by Arrhenius equation are in agreement with the corresponding m values derived by VFT equation. These Zr-Al-Ni-Cu BMGs characterize in low m values. The low m values for these BMGs would be due to their network microstructures. In addition, the m values of Zr-Al-Cu-Ni BMGs could be obtained by regulating Zr content. The composition of Zr-Al-Cu-Ni BMGs with the lowest m value would be near 54%Zr （mole fraction） because the m value about 13 of Zr 54 Al 13 Cu 18 Ni 15 BMG is the lowest among these Zr-Al-Ni-Cu BMGs developed.展开更多
Background:Global spread and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic are determined to a large extent,by resistance to the pandemic and public response of all countries in the world;while a country...Background:Global spread and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic are determined to a large extent,by resistance to the pandemic and public response of all countries in the world;while a country's resistance and response are in turn determined by its political and socio economic conditions.To inform future disease prevention and control,we analyzed global data to exam the relationship between state vulnerabilities and COVID-19 incidences and deaths.Methods:Vulnerability was measured using the Fragile States Index(FSI).FSI is created by the Fund for Peace to assess levels of fragility for individual countries.Total FSI score and scores for 12 specific indicators were used as the predictor variables.Outcome variables were national cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths up to September 16,2020,derived from the World Health Organization.Cumulative incidence rates were computed using 2019 National population derived from the World Bank,and case fatality rates were computed as the ratio of deaths/COVID-19 cases.Countries with incomplete data were excluded,yielding a final sample of 146 countries.Multivariate regression was used to examine the association between the predictor and the outcome measures.Results:There were dramatic cross-country variations in both FSI and COVID-19 epidemiological measurements.FSI total scores were negatively associated with both COVID-19 cumulative incidence rates(β=-0.0135,P<0.001)and case fatality rates(β=-0.0147,P<0.05).Of the 12 FSI indicators,three negatively associated with COVID-19 incidences were E1(Economic Decline and Poverty),E3(Human Flight and Brain Drain),and S2(Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons);two positively associated were P1(State Legitimacy)and X1(External Intervention).With regard to association with case fatality rates,C1(Security Apparatus)was positive,and P3(Human Rights and Rule of Law)and X1 was negative.Conclusion:With FSI measures by the Fund of Peace,overall,more fragile countries are less likely to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,and even if affected,death rates were lower.However,poor in state legitimacy and lack of external intervention are risk for COVID-19 infection and lack of security apparatus is risky for COVID-19 death.Implications of the study findings are discussed and additional studies are needed to examine the mechanisms underpinning these relationships.展开更多
Osteoporosis is a silent disease without any evidence of disease until a fracture occurs. Approximately 200 million people in the world are affected by osteoporosis and 8.9 million fractures occur each year worldwide....Osteoporosis is a silent disease without any evidence of disease until a fracture occurs. Approximately 200 million people in the world are affected by osteoporosis and 8.9 million fractures occur each year worldwide. Fractures of the hip are a major public health burden, by means of both social cost and health condition of the elderly because these fractures are one of the main causes of morbidity, impairment, decreased quality of life and mortality in women and men. The aim of this review is to analyze the most important factors related to the enormous impact of osteoporotic fractures on population. Among the most common risk factors, low body mass index; history of fragility fracture, environmental risk, early menopause, smoking, lack of vitamin D, endocrine disorders(for example insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus), use of glucocorticoids, excessive alcohol intake, immobility and others represented the main clinical risk factors associated with augmented risk of fragility fracture. The increasing trend of osteoporosis is accompanied by an underutilization of the available preventive strategies and only a small number of patients at high fracture risk are recognized and successively referred for therapy. This report provides analytic evidences to assess the best practices in osteoporosis management and indications for the adoption of a correct healthcare strategy to significantly reduce the osteoporosis burden. Early diagnosis is the key to resize the impact of osteoporosis on healthcare system. In this context, attention must be focused on the identification of high fracture risk among osteoporotic patients. It is necessary to increase national awareness campaigns across countries in order to reduce the osteoporotic fractures incidence.展开更多
Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility...Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility that considers multi-dimensional performance limit state parameters and makes a first attempt to develop fragility curves for a multi-span continuous (MSC) concrete girder bridge considering two performance limit state parameters: column ductility and transverse deformation in the abutments. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the performance limit states, which are compared with the seismic response parameters in the calculation of fragility, should be properly modeled as randomly interdependent variables instead of deterministic quantities. The sensitivity of fragility curves is also investigated when the dependency between the limit states is different. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to describe the vulnerable behavior of bridges which are sensitive to multiple response parameters and that the fragility information generated by this method will be more reliable and likely to be implemented into transportation network loss estimation.展开更多
This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Bas...This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.展开更多
Following several damaging earthquakes in China, research has been devoted to find the causes of the collapse of reinforced concrete （RC） building sand studying the vulnerability of existing buildings. The Chinese C...Following several damaging earthquakes in China, research has been devoted to find the causes of the collapse of reinforced concrete （RC） building sand studying the vulnerability of existing buildings. The Chinese Code for Seismic Design of Buildings （CCSDB） has evolved over time, however, there is still reported earthquake induced damage of newly designed RC buildings. Thus, to investigate modern Chinese seismic design code, three low-, mid- and high-rise RC frames were designed according to the 2010 CCSDB and the corresponding vulnerability curves were derived by computing a probabilistic seismic demand model （PSDM）.The PSDM was computed by carrying out nonlinear time history analysis using thirty ground motions obtained from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. Finally, the PSDM was used to generate fragility curves for immediate occupancy, significant damage, and collapse prevention damage levels. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the seismic demands on the three different frames designed according to the 2010 CCSDB meet the seismic requirements and are almost in the same safety level.展开更多
The Northridge earthquake inflicted various levels of damage upon a large number of Caltrans' bridges not retrofitted by column jacketing.In this respect,this study represents results of fragility curve developmen...The Northridge earthquake inflicted various levels of damage upon a large number of Caltrans' bridges not retrofitted by column jacketing.In this respect,this study represents results of fragility curve development for two (2) sample bridges typical in southern California,strengthened for seismic retrofit by means of steel jacketing of bridge columns.Monte Carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic responses of the bridges before and after column retrofit.Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA.The sixty (60) ground acceleration time histories for the Los Angeles area developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) SAC (SEAOC-ATC CUREe) steel project are used for the dynamic analysis of the bridges. The improvement in the fragility with steel jacketing is quantified by comparing fragility curves of the bridge before and after column retrofit.In this first attempt to formulate the problem of fragility enhancement,the quantification is made by comparing the median values of the fragility curves before and after the retrofit.Under the hypothesis that this quantification also applies to empirical fragility curves developed on the basis of Northridge earthquake damage,the enhanced version of the empirical curves is developed for the ensuing analysis to determine the enhancement of transportation network performance due to the retrofit.展开更多
Flexible pipelines are often used to connect hard pipes from a foundation to a superstructure to accommodate large deformation in the base isolation layer during an earthquake. Although Chinese seismic design guidelin...Flexible pipelines are often used to connect hard pipes from a foundation to a superstructure to accommodate large deformation in the base isolation layer during an earthquake. Although Chinese seismic design guidelines suggest several confi gurations, they are diff erent from the designs that have been proven in practice, e.g., Japanese styles, and extensive experimental investigation into their seismic performance is required. Three types of seals, rubber-, metal- and asbestinebased, were tested quasi-statically with infi lled pressurized water at 2.5 MPa. The asbestine-based seal leaked at a smaller deformation than the other two types of seals. Based on the test results, three damage states were defi ned and the deformation capacity was estimated. To evaluate their performance, a three-dimensional model of a base-isolated medical building was developed using OpenSees, with the fl exible pipelines simulated by a mechanical model calibrated from the experimental data. A probabilistic seismic demand model and the fragility function of the fl exible pipelines were then developed to evaluate the seismic performance.展开更多
This paper evaluates the seismic vulnerability of different classes of typical bridges in California when subjected to seismic shaking or liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The detailed structural configurations ...This paper evaluates the seismic vulnerability of different classes of typical bridges in California when subjected to seismic shaking or liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The detailed structural configurations in terms of superstructure type, connection, continuity at support and foundation type, etc. render different damage resistant capability. Six classes of bridges are established based on their anticipated failure mechanisms under earthquake shaking. The numerical models that are capable of simulating the complex soil-structure interaction effects, nonlinear behavior of columns and connections are developed for each bridge class. The dynamic responses are obtained using nonlinear time history analyses for a suite of 250 earthquake motions with increasing intensity. An equivalent static analysis procedure is also implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the bridges when subjected to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. Fragility functions for each bridge class are derived and compared for both seismic shaking （based on nonlinear dynamic analyses） and lateral spreading （based on equivalent static analyses） for different performance states. The study finds that the fragility functions due to either ground shaking or lateral spreading show significant correlation with the structural characterizations, but differences emerge for ground shaking and lateral spreading conditions. Structural properties that will mostly affect the bridges＇ damage resistant capacity are also identified.展开更多
The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragilit...The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.展开更多
This study deals with the seismic fragility of elastic structural systems equipped with single concave sliding（friction pendulum system（FPS）） isolators considering different soil conditions. The behavior of these ...This study deals with the seismic fragility of elastic structural systems equipped with single concave sliding（friction pendulum system（FPS）） isolators considering different soil conditions. The behavior of these systems is analyzed by employing a two-degree-of-freedom model, whereas the FPS response is described by means of a velocity-dependent model. The uncertainty in the seismic inputs is taken into account by considering artificial seismic excitations modelled as timemodulated filtered Gaussian white noise random processes of different intensity within the power spectral density method. In particular, the filter parameters, which control the frequency content of the random excitations, are calibrated to describe stiff, medium and soft soil conditions. The sliding friction coefficient at large velocity is also considered as a random variable modelled through a uniform probability density function. Incremental dynamic analyses are developed in order to evaluate the probabilities of exceeding different limit states related to both the reinforced concrete（RC） superstructure and isolation level, defining the seismic fragility curves within an extensive parametric study carried out for different structural system properties and soil conditions. The abovementioned seismic fragility curves are useful to evaluate the seismic reliability of base-isolated elastic systems equipped with FPS and located in any site for any soil condition.展开更多
基金financial support from the Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science and Technology (MEXT),Japan
文摘The effect of seismic directionality is crucial for curved bridges,a subject generally overlooked in seismic vulnerability analysis.This paper focuses on seismic fragility development as a function of seismic incidence directions for a geometrically curved bridge.A series of non-linear time history analyses were carried out for a representative finite element model of the bridge by considering actual ground motions.For reliable seismic demand models,a total of eleven intensity measures(IM)were analyzed based on optimality metrics.To quantify the sensitivity of fragility functions to input incidence directions,fragility surfaces were developed throughout the horizontal plane by considering spectral acceleration at one second(Sa_(1.0))as the optimal IM.Results show that the optimal IM ranking is insignificantly influenced by seismic directionality.However,seismic orientation influences fragility,which intensifies in higher damage states,particularly for piers.For a bridge system,the differences in median demand corresponding to the least and most vulnerable direction for slight,moderate,extensive,and collapse states are about 9.0%,7.31%,10.32%,and 11.60%,respectively.These results imply that while evaluating the vulnerability of curved bridges,the optimality of IM in demand estimation and the impact of seismic directionality should not be disregarded.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.52208191 and 51908397Shanxi Province Science Foundation for Youths under Grant No.201901D211025China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No.2020M670695。
文摘Seismic fragility analysis(SFA)is known as an effective probabilistic-based approach used to evaluate seismic fragility.There are various sources of uncertainties associated with this approach.A nuclear power plant(NPP)system is an extremely important infrastructure and contains many structural uncertainties due to construction issues or structural deterioration during service.Simulation of structural uncertainties effects is a costly and time-consuming endeavor.A novel approach to SFA for the NPP considering structural uncertainties based on the damage state is proposed and examined.The results suggest that considering the structural uncertainties is essential in assessing the fragility of the NPP structure,and the impact of structural uncertainties tends to increase with the state of damage.Subsequently,machine learning(ML)is found to be superior in high-precision damage state identification of the NPP for reducing the time of nonlinear time-history analysis(NLTHA)and could be applied in the damage state-based SFA.Also,the impact of various sources of uncertainties is investigated through sensitivity analysis.The Sobol and Shapley additive explanations(SHAP)method can be complementary to each other and able to solve the problem of quantifying seismic and structural uncertainties simultaneously and the interaction effect of each parameter.
基金Supported by Shanghai Tongren Hospital,Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine,No.TRYJ2024 LC16the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.82102577the Laboratory Open Fund of Key Technology and Materials in Minimally Invasive Spine Surgery,No.2024JZWC-YBA05.
文摘BACKGROUND Retrograde pubic ramus screw placement is an effective technique but requires substantial surgical expertise and specialized equipment.The management of osteoporotic anterior pelvic ring injuries remains challenging due to technical difficulties and a high risk of complications.AIM To introduce a novel and simplified surgical approach that utilizes a custom-designed handheld pelvic alignment guide(HPAG)in combination with a 6.0 mm hollow screw,aiming to enhance the accuracy,efficiency,and safety of retrograde pubic ramus screw fixation in osteoporotic pelvic fragility fractures.METHODS The HPAG and 6.0 mm hollow screw were employed during surgical treatment.A 2.0-3.0 cm incision was made to expose the optimal screw entry point.Intraop-erative pelvic inlet and obturator oblique views were used to monitor fracture reduction and guide screw insertion.Clinical outcomes and fracture reduction quality were evaluated using Matta,visual analog scale,and Majeed scores during follow-ups.A representative case is presented to demonstrate the surgical procedure in detail.RESULTS No perioperative complications were observed.The mean operative time was 35.2±6.97 minutes,with a screw insertion time of 7.25±1.86 minutes,an average incision length of 2.8±0.67 cm,and mean blood loss of 43.25±15.64 mL.At one-year follow-up,seven patients achieved excellent Majeed scores and three achieved good scores.CONCLUSION No perioperative complications were observed.The mean operative time was 35.2±6.97 minutes,with a screw insertion time of 7.25±1.86 minutes,an average incision length of 2.8±0.67 cm,and mean blood loss of 43.25±15.64 mL.At one-year follow-up,seven patients achieved excellent Majeed scores and three achieved good scores.
基金National Key R&D Program of China under Grant Nos.2018YFC1504504 and 2018YFC0809404。
文摘Damage to electrical equipment in an earthquake can lead to power outage of power systems.Seismic fragility analysis is a common method to assess the seismic reliability of electrical equipment.To further guarantee the efficiency of analysis,multi-source uncertainties including the structure itself and seismic excitation need to be considered.A method for seismic fragility analysis that reflects structural and seismic parameter uncertainty was developed in this study.The proposed method used a random sampling method based on Latin hypercube sampling(LHS)to account for the structure parameter uncertainty and the group structure characteristics of electrical equipment.Then,logistic Lasso regression(LLR)was used to find the seismic fragility surface based on double ground motion intensity measures(IM).The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an±1000 kV main transformer(UHVMT)was analyzed using the proposed method.The results show that the seismic fragility function obtained by this method can be used to construct the relationship between the uncertainty parameters and the failure probability.The seismic fragility surface did not only provide the probabilities of seismic damage states under different IMs,but also had better stability than the fragility curve.Furthermore,the sensitivity analysis of the structural parameters revealed that the elastic module of the bushing and the height of the high-voltage bushing may have a greater influence.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52208195)the Independent Subject of State Key Laboratory of Disaster Reduction in Civil Engineering of Tongji University(No.SLDRCE19-A-10).
文摘To improve the seismic performance of unrein-forced masonry(URM)buildings in the Himalayan re-gions,including Western China,India,Nepal,and Paki-stan,a low-cost bonded scrap tire rubber isolator(BSTRI)is proposed,and a series of vertical compression and horizontal shear tests are conducted.Incremental dynamic analyses are conducted for five types of BSTRI-supported URM buildings subjected to 22 far-field and 28 near-field earthquake ground motions.The resulting fragility curves and probability of damage curves are presented and utilized to evaluate the damage states of these buildings.The results show that in the base-isolated(BI)URM buildings under seismic ground motion at a peak ground acceleration(PGA)of 1.102g,the probability of exceeding the collapse prevention threshold is less than 25%under far-field earthquake ground motions and 31%under near-field earthquake ground motions.Furthermore,the maximum average vulnerability index for the BI-URM buildings,which are designed to withstand rare earthquakes with 9°(PGA=0.632g),is 40.87%for far-field earthquake ground motions and 41.83%for near-field earthquake ground motions.Therefore,the adoption of BSTRIs can significantly reduce the collapse probability of URM buildings.
基金National Key R&D Program of China under Grant No.2022YFC3003603。
文摘Seismic fragility analysis of three-tower cable-stayed bridges with three different structural systems,including rigid system(RS),floating system(FS),and passive energy dissipation system(PEDS),is conducted to study the effects of connection configurations on seismic responses and fragilities.Finite element models of bridges are established using OpenSees.A new ground motion screening method based on the statistical characteristic of the predominant period is proposed to avoid irregular behavior in the selection process of ground motions,and incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)is performed to develop components and systems fragility curves.The effects of damper failure on calculated results for PEDS are examined in terms of seismic response and fragility analysis.The results show that the bridge tower is the most affected component by different structural systems.For RS,the fragility of the middle tower is significantly higher than other components,and the bridge failure starts from the middle tower,exhibiting a characteristic of local failure.For FS and PEDS,the fragility of the edge tower is higher than the middle tower.The system fragility of RS is higher than FS and PEDS.Taking the failure of dampers into account is necessary to obtain reliable seismic capacity of cable-stayed bridges.
文摘Background: Reduced bone density is a major risk factor for fragility fracture. Previous studies reported, that 69% to 100% of patients with fragility fractures had low bone mineral density (BMD). Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate the prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia among patients with fragility fractures. Results: The result of the study revealed that the mean age of patients included in the study was 65.11 ± 10.17 and the majority (77.3%) were females. The most common sites of fractures were the femur, radius and vertebra (30.7%, 17.0% and 14.8% respectively). Moreover, more than 95% of patients with fragility fracture who underwent BMD testing had low bone mineral density. In female with fragility fracture the prevalence of osteoporosis was higher in comparison to male (58.8% and 45.0% respectively). Conclusion: Our data showed that low BMD measurement is prevalent in patient with fragility fracture. It also highlighted the importance of implementation of Fracture liaison service, to reduce the gap between fragility fracture and osteoporosis treatment.
基金funded through a cooperative agreement between the U.S.National Institute of Standards and Technology and Colorado State University(NIST Financial Assistance Award Numbers:70NANB15H044 and 70NANB20H008).
文摘This study introduces an advanced community-level resilience analysis methodology integrating 3D fragility sur-faces for combined successive earthquake-tsunami hazard and analysis.The methodology facilitates comprehen-sive evaluations of spatial damage,economic loss,and risk under multi-hazard conditions.This study compares earthquake-only analysis results to the successive earthquake-tsunami analysis at the community level to reveal-and quantify-significant disparities in damage and loss estimations between the analyses,emphasizing the need to consider both hazards in community planning even at lower seismic intensities.Critical assessment of the FEMA combinational rule demonstrates its limitations in accurately predicting losses and damage patterns at higher hazard intensities,highlighting the necessity for refined models that accurately account for hazard inter-actions.This research advances multi-hazard community-level resilience analysis by offering a robust framework for earthquake and tsunami assessment,underscoring the need for integration of detailed multi-hazard analy-ses into resilience planning.Finally,it suggests future directions for enhancing framework applicability across diverse community settings and structural types,aiming to improve community resilience.
基金Project(50874045)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(200902472,20080431021)supported by the China Postdoctoral Science FoundationProject(10A044)supported by the Research Foundation of Education Bureau of Hunan Province of China
文摘Zr-Al-Ni-Cu bulk metallic glasses （BMGs） were developed and their fragility parameters （m） were calculated by Arrhenius and Vogel-Fulcher-Tammann （VFT） equations. The results show that the m values of the Zr-Al-Ni-Cu BMGs derived by Arrhenius equation are in agreement with the corresponding m values derived by VFT equation. These Zr-Al-Ni-Cu BMGs characterize in low m values. The low m values for these BMGs would be due to their network microstructures. In addition, the m values of Zr-Al-Cu-Ni BMGs could be obtained by regulating Zr content. The composition of Zr-Al-Cu-Ni BMGs with the lowest m value would be near 54%Zr （mole fraction） because the m value about 13 of Zr 54 Al 13 Cu 18 Ni 15 BMG is the lowest among these Zr-Al-Ni-Cu BMGs developed.
基金This paper was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72042014).
文摘Background:Global spread and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic are determined to a large extent,by resistance to the pandemic and public response of all countries in the world;while a country's resistance and response are in turn determined by its political and socio economic conditions.To inform future disease prevention and control,we analyzed global data to exam the relationship between state vulnerabilities and COVID-19 incidences and deaths.Methods:Vulnerability was measured using the Fragile States Index(FSI).FSI is created by the Fund for Peace to assess levels of fragility for individual countries.Total FSI score and scores for 12 specific indicators were used as the predictor variables.Outcome variables were national cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths up to September 16,2020,derived from the World Health Organization.Cumulative incidence rates were computed using 2019 National population derived from the World Bank,and case fatality rates were computed as the ratio of deaths/COVID-19 cases.Countries with incomplete data were excluded,yielding a final sample of 146 countries.Multivariate regression was used to examine the association between the predictor and the outcome measures.Results:There were dramatic cross-country variations in both FSI and COVID-19 epidemiological measurements.FSI total scores were negatively associated with both COVID-19 cumulative incidence rates(β=-0.0135,P<0.001)and case fatality rates(β=-0.0147,P<0.05).Of the 12 FSI indicators,three negatively associated with COVID-19 incidences were E1(Economic Decline and Poverty),E3(Human Flight and Brain Drain),and S2(Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons);two positively associated were P1(State Legitimacy)and X1(External Intervention).With regard to association with case fatality rates,C1(Security Apparatus)was positive,and P3(Human Rights and Rule of Law)and X1 was negative.Conclusion:With FSI measures by the Fund of Peace,overall,more fragile countries are less likely to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic,and even if affected,death rates were lower.However,poor in state legitimacy and lack of external intervention are risk for COVID-19 infection and lack of security apparatus is risky for COVID-19 death.Implications of the study findings are discussed and additional studies are needed to examine the mechanisms underpinning these relationships.
基金FESR P.O.Apulia Region 2007-2013-Action 1.2.4,No.3Q5AX31
文摘Osteoporosis is a silent disease without any evidence of disease until a fracture occurs. Approximately 200 million people in the world are affected by osteoporosis and 8.9 million fractures occur each year worldwide. Fractures of the hip are a major public health burden, by means of both social cost and health condition of the elderly because these fractures are one of the main causes of morbidity, impairment, decreased quality of life and mortality in women and men. The aim of this review is to analyze the most important factors related to the enormous impact of osteoporotic fractures on population. Among the most common risk factors, low body mass index; history of fragility fracture, environmental risk, early menopause, smoking, lack of vitamin D, endocrine disorders(for example insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus), use of glucocorticoids, excessive alcohol intake, immobility and others represented the main clinical risk factors associated with augmented risk of fragility fracture. The increasing trend of osteoporosis is accompanied by an underutilization of the available preventive strategies and only a small number of patients at high fracture risk are recognized and successively referred for therapy. This report provides analytic evidences to assess the best practices in osteoporosis management and indications for the adoption of a correct healthcare strategy to significantly reduce the osteoporosis burden. Early diagnosis is the key to resize the impact of osteoporosis on healthcare system. In this context, attention must be focused on the identification of high fracture risk among osteoporotic patients. It is necessary to increase national awareness campaigns across countries in order to reduce the osteoporotic fractures incidence.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Award Number 50878184National High Technology Research and Development Program (863 Program) of China Under Grant No. 2006AA04Z437Graduate Starting Seed Fund of Northwestern Polytechnical University Under the Grant No. Z2012059
文摘Fragility analysis for highway bridges has become increasingly important in the risk assessment of highway transportation networks exposed to seismic hazards. This study introduces a methodology to calculate fragility that considers multi-dimensional performance limit state parameters and makes a first attempt to develop fragility curves for a multi-span continuous (MSC) concrete girder bridge considering two performance limit state parameters: column ductility and transverse deformation in the abutments. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the performance limit states, which are compared with the seismic response parameters in the calculation of fragility, should be properly modeled as randomly interdependent variables instead of deterministic quantities. The sensitivity of fragility curves is also investigated when the dependency between the limit states is different. The results indicate that the proposed method can be used to describe the vulnerable behavior of bridges which are sensitive to multiple response parameters and that the fragility information generated by this method will be more reliable and likely to be implemented into transportation network loss estimation.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51808376
文摘This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant No.51108105,90815029,50938006 Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China Under Grant No.20094410120002+3 种基金 Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant No.90815027Key Projects in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Eleventh Five-Year Plan Period Under Grant No.2009BAJ28B03Fund for High School in Guangzhou (10A057)the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science(2011KB15)
文摘Following several damaging earthquakes in China, research has been devoted to find the causes of the collapse of reinforced concrete （RC） building sand studying the vulnerability of existing buildings. The Chinese Code for Seismic Design of Buildings （CCSDB） has evolved over time, however, there is still reported earthquake induced damage of newly designed RC buildings. Thus, to investigate modern Chinese seismic design code, three low-, mid- and high-rise RC frames were designed according to the 2010 CCSDB and the corresponding vulnerability curves were derived by computing a probabilistic seismic demand model （PSDM）.The PSDM was computed by carrying out nonlinear time history analysis using thirty ground motions obtained from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center. Finally, the PSDM was used to generate fragility curves for immediate occupancy, significant damage, and collapse prevention damage levels. Results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that the seismic demands on the three different frames designed according to the 2010 CCSDB meet the seismic requirements and are almost in the same safety level.
基金MCEER/FHWA under Contract No.DTFH 61-98-C-00094Caltrans under Contract No.59A0304
文摘The Northridge earthquake inflicted various levels of damage upon a large number of Caltrans' bridges not retrofitted by column jacketing.In this respect,this study represents results of fragility curve development for two (2) sample bridges typical in southern California,strengthened for seismic retrofit by means of steel jacketing of bridge columns.Monte Carlo simulation is performed to study nonlinear dynamic responses of the bridges before and after column retrofit.Fragility curves in this study are represented by lognormal distribution functions with two parameters and developed as a function of PGA.The sixty (60) ground acceleration time histories for the Los Angeles area developed for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) SAC (SEAOC-ATC CUREe) steel project are used for the dynamic analysis of the bridges. The improvement in the fragility with steel jacketing is quantified by comparing fragility curves of the bridge before and after column retrofit.In this first attempt to formulate the problem of fragility enhancement,the quantification is made by comparing the median values of the fragility curves before and after the retrofit.Under the hypothesis that this quantification also applies to empirical fragility curves developed on the basis of Northridge earthquake damage,the enhanced version of the empirical curves is developed for the ensuing analysis to determine the enhancement of transportation network performance due to the retrofit.
基金Scientific Research Fund of Institute of Engineering Mechanics,CEA under Grant Nos.2016A05 and 2016A06the International Science and Technology Cooperation Program of China under Grant No.2014DFA70950the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51378478
文摘Flexible pipelines are often used to connect hard pipes from a foundation to a superstructure to accommodate large deformation in the base isolation layer during an earthquake. Although Chinese seismic design guidelines suggest several confi gurations, they are diff erent from the designs that have been proven in practice, e.g., Japanese styles, and extensive experimental investigation into their seismic performance is required. Three types of seals, rubber-, metal- and asbestinebased, were tested quasi-statically with infi lled pressurized water at 2.5 MPa. The asbestine-based seal leaked at a smaller deformation than the other two types of seals. Based on the test results, three damage states were defi ned and the deformation capacity was estimated. To evaluate their performance, a three-dimensional model of a base-isolated medical building was developed using OpenSees, with the fl exible pipelines simulated by a mechanical model calibrated from the experimental data. A probabilistic seismic demand model and the fragility function of the fl exible pipelines were then developed to evaluate the seismic performance.
基金Supported by:Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Lifelines Program Under Project Task No.9C
文摘This paper evaluates the seismic vulnerability of different classes of typical bridges in California when subjected to seismic shaking or liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. The detailed structural configurations in terms of superstructure type, connection, continuity at support and foundation type, etc. render different damage resistant capability. Six classes of bridges are established based on their anticipated failure mechanisms under earthquake shaking. The numerical models that are capable of simulating the complex soil-structure interaction effects, nonlinear behavior of columns and connections are developed for each bridge class. The dynamic responses are obtained using nonlinear time history analyses for a suite of 250 earthquake motions with increasing intensity. An equivalent static analysis procedure is also implemented to evaluate the vulnerability of the bridges when subjected to liquefaction-induced lateral spreading. Fragility functions for each bridge class are derived and compared for both seismic shaking （based on nonlinear dynamic analyses） and lateral spreading （based on equivalent static analyses） for different performance states. The study finds that the fragility functions due to either ground shaking or lateral spreading show significant correlation with the structural characterizations, but differences emerge for ground shaking and lateral spreading conditions. Structural properties that will mostly affect the bridges＇ damage resistant capacity are also identified.
基金the ANR National Research Agency as Part of Its RiskNat Program(URBASIS project)under Grant No.ANR-09-RISK-009the Rh ne-Alpes Regional Council(Programme Vulnerabilitédes Ouvrages aux Risques)and the Joseph Fourier Université(Grenoble 1)
文摘The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.
文摘This study deals with the seismic fragility of elastic structural systems equipped with single concave sliding（friction pendulum system（FPS）） isolators considering different soil conditions. The behavior of these systems is analyzed by employing a two-degree-of-freedom model, whereas the FPS response is described by means of a velocity-dependent model. The uncertainty in the seismic inputs is taken into account by considering artificial seismic excitations modelled as timemodulated filtered Gaussian white noise random processes of different intensity within the power spectral density method. In particular, the filter parameters, which control the frequency content of the random excitations, are calibrated to describe stiff, medium and soft soil conditions. The sliding friction coefficient at large velocity is also considered as a random variable modelled through a uniform probability density function. Incremental dynamic analyses are developed in order to evaluate the probabilities of exceeding different limit states related to both the reinforced concrete（RC） superstructure and isolation level, defining the seismic fragility curves within an extensive parametric study carried out for different structural system properties and soil conditions. The abovementioned seismic fragility curves are useful to evaluate the seismic reliability of base-isolated elastic systems equipped with FPS and located in any site for any soil condition.
